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PDF Editor FAQ
Is it good for the Indian government to invest in bullet trains (high speed railway HSR)? Is India really ready for it?
Long gone era should be forgottenIt is not right for India to invest in bullet train technology when the era of bullet trains, MagLev and TGC train technology is long behind us. All this was the theme of 1970s and 1980s. One cannot succeed now in 2025 with the something that is not the talk of the town. I come from a vast Indian Railways background since my birth with my Dad having worked for Railways for 38.4 yrs and retired as Mail Guard (actually travelled on trains/tracks daily basis). I know day in and day out operations of Indian Railways as I have also travelled on long distance trains with my Dad during his work schedule. India must not chase Bullet Train technology (to everyone's knowledge the BJP govt and press officers are avoiding using the words "bullet train" and have started using "high speed rail corridor" i.e. HSRC just to confuse everyone). There is no assurance and benchmark about speed / price / timeframe that they have decided that they wish to assure the Parliament (sacred temple of democracy) and people of India. If today's fastest Indian Railways train travels at 150 kmph speed, we may end up having our Mumbai -Ahmedabad route on HSRC with hardly 200 kmph speed or 220 kmph.Analyse with exampleTake another example. If I say that valve radio sets or tube radio sets of 1950s were supreme in efficiency and tuning, and there are people like me who like valve radio sets, will it be possible to manufacture them now in 2015 and sell them in market? And even if we manufacture valve radios, will it make sense with the pricing, urban space etc? Absolutely Not, because the valve radio technology era is long gone, followed by transistors followed by IC radio sets. In the same manner, for India it is utmost important not to fall in the trap of bullet trains which was famous in 1970s now in 2015 to 2030 era. Even the United States missed the boat of Maglev and TGV trains / bullet trains in 1980s and they never again visited that topic for their country.Go by DemandSomeone here will argue saying no one wants valve radios in 2015 hence that example if of no good. However, I would like to point out that no one ever asked any Prime Ministerial candidate about "need of a bullet train in India between Mumbai and Ahmedabad. Take a vote today of 83 crore adults in India and you will receive majority in the option of "not wanting a bullet train".There was and is still always a demand that Indian Railways separate all freight traffic from the passenger tracks and keep them separate.That demand was never fulfilled in past 20 years, and has not been assured that it will be fulfilled in next 20 years. Then why push for bullet train when no one is asking and already pending demand is not fulfilled?Numbers Talk it outPopulation of India = 128 croresAdults (above 18) in 2015 in India = 83 croresTax returns filed in India in 2015 = 4 crore max returns (income above 2.5 Lks)EPFO employees(pvt) in 2015 in India = 5.5 crore (EPFO has generated 5.4 crore UAN Numbers)Almost 75 crore people in India are not in employment. They are either businessman or farmers or farm labourers.Only 4 crore people fall above the income tax bracket of "tax paying citizens or residents".It must be noted from the above numbers that the lower middle class, middle class and upper middle class total around approx 7 crore in numbers (going by the tax returns + EPFO numbers + govt employees + pensioners)We find that we have a very low population which is taxpaying and projects like bullet trains are being funded by taxpayers money. Are these 7 crore really going to travel by that bullet train in 2025? Have these 7 crore really felt the need to travel in bullet train?In my entire professional working life, I never found the need to visit Ahmedabad from Mumbai. It will be the businessman who need to travel and they are capable enough to travel using airplanes.SummaryIt is high time India not spend Rs 98,000 crore for a simple Mumbai - Ahmedabad bullet train but use that money in laying down large network of dedicated freight tracks that will allow only freight traffic thus freeing existing passenger tracks.A regular mail express train with 23 or 24 coaches from Mumbai to Ahmedabad carries almost 2700 or more passengers daily (taking into consideration the general coach rush and illegal passengers in SL etc). This count may increase in 2025.Hard Questions:a) Will a bullet train from Mumbai to Ahmedabad carry these many number of passengers?b) When bullet train becomes operational between Mumbai and Ahmedabad, will there be enough passenger demand on that route?c) What Ahmedabad and Gandhinagar are today in future may themselves turn into large international hubs and no longer want to "integrate business with Mumbai" which they were feeling the need since last 50 years?d) Has govt of India defined what will be the minimum and maximum speed of the bullet train after spending more than 1 Lakh crore from taxpayer money? What if people receive this train with speed hardly around 200 kmph? Will we not feel cheated?e) Has govt of India prefixed fares that will not be under purview of Supreme Court or any judiciary? Eg say today we feel Rs 2800 is ticket price and the BOT train operator feels the cost has risen so fare should be Rs 6800, the will SC overrule govt? We already saw what happened in case of Mumbai Metro; SC allowed fare to increase upto Rs 110.f) Has the govt of India assured us that the existing Mumbai - Ahmedabad route will not be neglected in next 30 years because of a bullet train route available in between those two cities?g) Has govt of India assured us that no single hawker will be allowed to remain present of visible outside any of the high speed rail network stations?It is highly possible in future that a bullet train with high fares becomes operational and people avoid clinging to it. To force people, Indian Govt will reduce services and quality on existing route to force people to use bullet train route. They may also disturb the air traffic setup between Mumbai and Ahmedabad or create disturbances on that so that people are forced to use bullet trains.Reference about wrong decisions:In late 1970s, there was already a proposal to the then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi that India have a "garland canal". i.e connecting the north rivers with the south to allow better water management. In early 1980s the then Prime Minister decided to not go ahead with that proposal and instead opted for Asiad 1982 games. She felt by Asiad games it will put India on the world sports map. We all know where we are today. Today, Garland Canal is almost an impossible structure. However the buses purchased for 1982 Asiad games were used for state transport (Pune Mumbai Asiad Bus :))India must not focus on bullet trains now and should avoid one more mistake. The era of bullet trains is long gone. Only China is laying down bullet trains and data for those trains is not made available whether they are making any profit or losses. Also, we do not know intentions of China and we do not know how much those bullet or high speed trains are benefiting China. Moreover, if they benefit China, not necessary they will benefit India.
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