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My best guess is a so-called moderate Democrat in the Senate with years of experience in that body.Bernie comes from the Democratic left wing, so he is going to have to partner up with someone to his right who can keep the moderate faction happy. That someone must also be in a position to help his administration get legislation passed in the Senate, which is a weak spot for Democrats.The current-serving Democratic senator with the longest tenure is Patrick Leahy from Vermont (who is one year older than Sanders and was elected in 1974), but Bernie is also a senator from Vermont it’s unlikely he will be picked. Which leads us to the other possibilities:Ed Markey (Massachusetts; elected to the Senate in 2012 but served decades in the House before that)Ron Wyden (Oregon; elected to the Senate in 1996)Chuck Schumer (New York, Senate minority leader, elected to the Senate in 1999)Dick Durbin (Illinois, elected to the Senate in 1996)Of these four, I think Wyden has the best shot at becoming Bernie’s VP, since Markey is also from New England while both Schumer and Durbin are the Minority Leader and Whip, respectively. The last time anyone in any of these positions became VP was LBJ. But it could happen again.Alternatively, Bernie could go the Trump route and pick a current governor with previous national legislative experience as his running mate. Ideally, he would pick a governor from a state in the Midwest whose voters he has been trying to appeal to. That would mean the governors of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, and Kentucky, all of whom are Democrats.The problem is, these governors were all recently elected in 2018 and wouldn’t be able to complete their very first term if called up to run. The governors of Virginia and North Carolina (swing state) were also elected rather recently, in 2018 and 2017 respectively. Which leaves us mostly with the governors from states in the Mid-Atlantic, Northeast, and out west.And among these governors, there is only one who has had some prior legislative experience at the federal level, who was elected more than 2–3 years ago, and whose term expires no more than 2 years after the next presidential inauguration:Jay Inslee (Gov. of Washington, previously served in the House and elected governor in 2013, due to step down in 2021)But the problem with Inslee is that he is running in the 2020 gubernatorial election, so unless he suspends that campaign he will not be in a position to run for another office. So if Bernie wants to pick a governor who can afford to ditch his/her current position by January 2021, he’ll have to choose someone who doesn’t have experience in Congress or comes from a state that is relatively close, and therefore relatable to, Vermont. Or he’ll have to pick a former governor.The other alternative for Bernie’s running mate is an experienced moderate Democrat from the House, who won’t be as useful of an ally as an experienced moderate Democrat in the Senate, but can still come in handy nonetheless since the House is a part of Congress. A running mate from the House probably won’t be the current Speaker of the House, the Majority Leader, or the Majority Whip, since they may be needed there as leaders of the Democrats in the House.The longest-serving Democrat who is currently serving in the House and is neither a leader nor a whip is Rep. Marcy Kaptur from Ohio (elected 1982). Kaptur has been sitting in the House for over 30 years now, and she comes from a state that Bernie has an interest in targeting. Moreover, despite being conservative on some issues (like abortion) she does see eye to eye with Bernie on other issues (e.g. opposition to the bank bailout and certain free trade agreements). Kaptur endorsed Bernie in 2016 too. So if Bernie Sanders emerges victorious from the DNC he might be able to put her to good use.The other person that comes into mind is Rep. Tim Ryan, who is also from Ohio but is much younger (46 yo) and joined the House much later (in 2003). Ryan shares some of Bernie’s protectionism as well as his other positions (like a $15/hr minimum wage and free college), but he is against Medicare for All, which could qualify him as someone Bernie disagrees with but also needs.Some of Bernie’s hardcore supporters have talked about Rashida Tlaib or Ilhan Omar becoming Bernie’s running mate, but both reps think exactly as Bernie does and won’t be of any use as VP, given what the VP does. Plus they’re Muslim.

Hi, I’m Jennie. I grew up in New York City, and some day I’ll write an answer to this question: What was it like being a Red Diaper baby? Consequently, I don’t believe we live in a meritocracy nor do I even believe that we should. Having lived in New York during a garbage strike, I don’t believe that the value of a role in society (and the remuneration that should attain to it) are a function of “intelligence”, skill, etc. The idea that you shouldn’t be able to make a living wage working at McDonald’s doesn’t make any sense to me, nor do I believe that a living wage means subsistence.Eventually I moved to Massachusetts to go to college and did that classic thing where you meet a guy who already has a job when you graduate, so you just kind of stay there forever.I studied math: Jennifer Edeburn's answer to A page has been torn out of a magazine. The sum of the page numbers on the remaining pages is 525. What is the sum of the page numbers on the page torn out?And biology: Jennifer Edeburn's answer to I did my biology exam and there is a question that I was not sure about. Both parents don’t have cystic fibrosis but both their children have the disease what is the probability the 3 child will have (out of 4 children)?And computer science, but apparently I haven’t written any answers about that.l like to knit: Jennifer Edeburn's answer to What do you like about knitting?I love to read: Jennifer Edeburn's answer to Have you ever been late on something or someone because you were enjoying reading a book?Food is a biggie with me: Jennifer Edeburn's answer to What is the most difficult recipe you've made?Also music: Jennifer Edeburn's answer to What is your favorite song that makes you cry and want to die?. Oh heck, I really like music, here’s another one: Jennifer Edeburn's answer to If you'd like to establish a daily ass-shaking dance session with your children or grandchildren, what would be on your playlist?My whole family (some more than others) does taekwondo: How did you become interested in Taekwondo?I write a lot of answers about parenting: Jennifer Edeburn's answer to I am going to restrict my 15 year old daughter's phone usage to once a week. What is the most effective way to convince her that she doesn't need to use the phone?I am a big believer in data and analytics in any situation: Jennifer Edeburn's answer to How do you make the perfect crepe? I’ve followed many recipes to a T, yet, my crepes always end up tasting too eggy.I think it’s hugely important to account individual experiences and acknowledge the role of emotion in problem solving. Yet I don’t believe that the plural of anecdote is data: Jennifer Edeburn's answer to How do I convince my wife to terminate a Down Syndrome pregnancy?I reject what I regard as knee-jerk emotional arguments, and I’m not afraid to take the contrarian point of view: Jennifer Edeburn's answer to What is your opinion of Christie Tate’s claim in The Washington Post that she has a right to write about the private lives of her minor children by name and with photos?I am very sensitive to evaluating events in their proper context: Jennifer Edeburn's answer to If a parent claims to have done their 100% absolute best in trying to raise their child, is their child abuse somewhat excusable?I’ve been told I have a gift for seeing seemingly simple questions as complicated issues: Jennifer Edeburn's answer to Is it right to expect both people in a relationship to pay half the rent when one makes a fair bit less? I expect my partner to pay half, but he thinks he should pay less because I make a good bit more than he does.I’m a wild idealist, but I think that arguing for consensus on a problem requires consideration of the way that people will behave, and not the way that you think they should behave: Jennifer Edeburn's answer to What do you think of the new Ohio law banning abortions for Down Syndrome children?And I really hate facile solutions that I don’t think line up with the root problem: Jennifer Edeburn's answer to What made you lose respect for Bernie Sanders?If you’ve clicked through to some of the above answers, by now you’re probably starting to get the idea that I think there’s very little in the world that can be viewed as black and white. A couple more things, though.I really think that the worth of an argument doesn’t depend on my agreement with the premise:Jennifer Edeburn's answer to Why don't conservatives accept that liberal policies work? Given that the top ten happiest countries are liberal “hellholes”?Jennifer Edeburn's answer to Why do Republican voters keep voting against their self-interest? If the GOP keeps screwing over its voter base, why do they keep voting them back in?I pretty much always try to be helpful: Jennifer Edeburn's answer to What do you think you are known for on Quora? What would you rather be known for?I’m never afraid to stand up for the underdog:Jennifer Edeburn's answer to Why is it that Quora doesn't allow to call a troll a troll?Jennifer Edeburn's answer to What types of behaviors on Quora do you find annoying? e.g. too much upvoting, answering too many questions, someone A2A you too much, etc.And I definitely, definitely believe that how you speak to those who don’t agree with you is one of the biggest determining factors in whether or not they hear your words: Jennifer Edeburn's answer to What are the most annoying types of highly upvoted answers on Quora?

If Trump wins the 2020 election, it will be because he motivated enough supporters in certain “battleground” states to turn out and vote for him.Since you say you have only a passing grasp of US politics, you may not know how we elect our presidents. It is not by a direct popular vote. Rather, the president and vice-president are chosen by the “electors” of each state.[1] A state has as many electors as it has members of Congress. Washington, D.C. selects three additional electors, making a total of 538. A few weeks after the election the electors, who are selected in each state by the party whose candidate won the popular vote, meet to cast their votes. The candidate who amasses 270 or more electoral votes is the winner. (I’m leaving out a few details that don’t affect what follows.)Under this system it is possible for a candidate who wins the nationwide popular vote to lose the electoral vote (and vice versa, obviously.) This occurred in 2000 and in 2016, and three times in the nineteenth century.[2]The electoral college system determines the parties’ campaign strategies: they are competing for states and their electoral votes, not for a majority of the nation’s votes.[3] Each candidate tries to assemble a group of states that will yield him or her 270 electoral votes. Among this group, campaigns focus their efforts on key “battleground” states that tend to “swing” towards or away from the two parties.The Rust Belt battleground states are Iowa (six electoral votes), Michigan (16), Minnesota (10), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20), and Wisconsin (10). Total: 80 electoral votes.The Southwest battleground states are Texas (38 electoral votes), Arizona (11), Colorado (nine), Nevada (six), and New Mexico (five). Total: 69 electoral votes.The Southern battleground states are Florida (29 electoral votes), Georgia (16), North Carolina (15), and Virginia (13). Total: 73 electoral votes.In 2016 Trump won 30 states (306 electoral votes), among them the battleground states of Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin. The states won by Clinton (232 electoral votes) included only two battleground states, Minnesota and Virginia.For Trump to win in November he must hold on to the 30 states he won in 2016, or offset any losses by capturing states that Clinton won. In particular he must retain the five Rust Belt states he won – especially Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, in which his victories were very narrow.[4] [5] He must also carry Texas and Arizona, and keep all of his Southern states (Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina). If he loses any of them, his only hope for re-election is to pick up some of Clinton’s states – perhaps Minnesota, Nevada, or New Mexico.What are Trump’s prospects?[6] Demographically, Trump’s base consists of white voters without college degrees. They were 45 percent of the electorate in 2016, but now are down to 41 percent.[7] Thus, Trump must either increase his share of these voters or increase their turnout. To make up fully for the declining population of his base he probably also needs to gain some Democratic voters, which he might find among conservative black, hispanic, and asian voters.But Trump’s popularity is weak in states with significant numbers of conservative blacks, hispanics, or asians.[8] There are quite a few conservative hispanics and asians in California, for example, but none of California’s electoral votes are going to Trump no matter how many of them vote for him: like 47 other states, California appoints its electors on a winner-take-all basis. Biden would win the Golden State even if he didn't advertise there.[9]How formidable a challenger is Biden? Given Trump’s shrinking base, it’s entirely possible that the Democrat might recapture Michigan,[10] Pennsylvania,[11] and Wisconsin,[12] giving him, all things being equal, 278 electoral votes and victory. A sufficiently increased black turnout could enable him to add North Carolina’s 15 electoral votes for a total of 293.[13] If enough nonblack nonwhites show up at the polls, or enough college-educated whites, Biden could flip Florida and Arizona and bring his total to 333.[14] [15] [16] If Biden can win Florida and any one of Wisconsin, Michigan, or Ohio,[17] he wins. If he can take Florida and Pennsylvania, he wins handily.[18]On the other hand, if Trump can turn out his base in very large numbers, then Minnesota,[19] Nevada,[20] Maine,[21] and New Hampshire[22] might all come within his reach.[23] (At the moment, however, Trump is polling very weakly in these states.)Consider another factor. In 2016 there were two third party candidates, Jill Stein and Gary Johnson.[24] [25] Clinton lost Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin by 77,744 votes, while 558,001 voters in those states went for Stein or Johnson.[26] If Biden succeeds in attracting enough Stein or Johnson voters (more likely Stein than Johnson), he could, as I already said, win the election just by taking back those three states.[27] [28]There are many other complications but this, roughly, is how Trump will have won the election, if he wins it, and how he will have lost if he loses.[29]It occurs to me, though, that the question might not be asking only whether Trump will win the election and how he is going about trying to do so. The question probably also asks why enough people support Trump to elect him president – what it is about Trump that people find attractive. I answer that question below, after the photographs, in Part Two.A meeting of the North Dakota Electoral College.Michael Barnett, Florida Elector, 2016.Part Two.Quite apart from the mechanics of presidential elections and campaigns, another question arises: what do Trump’s supporters see in him?A simple and straightforward source of his appeal is that Trump’s positions on the issues match those of his supporters.Trump, of course, is a nationalist. He is anti-globalization and anti-immigration. He opposes involvement in long and costly wars, but he also believes that aggression by America’s enemies requires strong retaliation, which entails maintaining a powerful military. In that spirit Trump also supports law enforcement, but opposes gun control and praises the Second Amendment. He is skeptical about the grievances of minority groups, and deplores what he sees as their implicit criticism of America. He favors energetic government action to protect the economic well-being of hard-working citizens, for example by opposing trade agreements that benefit elites at the expense of ordinary people, but he opposes the “handouts” that liberals want to provide to the identity groups and guilds they favor.These views are perfectly aligned with those of Jacksonian populists. As Walter Russell Mead describes their ideology:The role of the U.S. government, Jacksonians believe, is to … [look] after the physical security and economic well-being of the American people in their national home – and to do that while interfering as little as possible with the individual freedom that makes the country unique.For Jacksonian America, certain events galvanize intense interest and political engagement…. One of these is war; when an enemy attacks, Jacksonians spring to the country’s defense. The most powerful driver of Jacksonian political engagement in domestic politics, similarly, is the perception that Jacksonians are being attacked by internal enemies…. […] They are not obsessed with corruption, seeing it as an ineradicable part of politics. But they care deeply about what they see as perversion – when politicians try to use the government to oppress the people rather than protect them.[30]To fully understand Trump’s appeal it’s crucial to see that before he took over the Republican Party, neither party consistently represented the populists’ views. On economic issues, populists favored positions that often caused them to lean towards the Democratic Party. But on cultural and identity issues their views were (and are) better represented by Republicans.[31]In the past, American politics revolved around the traditional dispute between left and right over distributive justice, the question being how much wealth should the government transfer to the less well-off and what services should it perform for the country as a whole.[32] Over the last several decades, however, political conflict was extended to the role of government in regulating appropriate behavior – what I referred to above as matters of culture and identity.[33]In the political class, and the parties they run, the economic and cultural issues are tightly aligned. If you’re a Democratic activist, you believe that the government should tax and spend to provide for the less well off and to ensure the proper treatment of women, minorities, gays and other groups that you perceive as vulnerable. If you’re a Republican, you believe that the government should avoid redistributing wealth or regulating the economy and that it has no business trying to shape citizens’ attitudes towards gender, race, religious expression, and so on.[34]These differences between Democrats and Republicans are hyper-polarized and party activists insist on strict adherence to them.[35]But populists aren’t polarized along these lines.[36][37] When, in expressing the populist ideology, Trump attacked both Republicans and Democrats, he was doing something that hadn’t been done before. In Trump, populists found a candidate of a major party who for the first time was saying everything they wanted to hear.Although Trump’s base support him on the issues, they don’t necessarily like him personally. According to a recent Pew Research Center study, 66 percent of Republican and Republican-leaning voters say either that they don’t approve of Trump’s conduct in office or that they have mixed feelings about it. Only 31 percent say they like the way he’s conducted himself. But Republicans do approve of his job performance: 80 percent say so, with 64 percent strongly approving of it. Trump’s supporters don’t like him; they like what they believe he’s doing on their behalf. Nine out of 10 Republicans say that Trump fights for what they believe in.[38]The issue positions that join Trump’s supporters to him aren’t just issues, however. The issues must be understood in the context of his supporters’ view of their place in American society.To understand this aspect of the Trump phenomenon, the work of social psychologist Arlie Hochschild is essential. Although she herself is a liberal Democrat, she spent several years in Louisiana getting to know individuals in Trump’s demographic – that is, mostly rural whites without college degrees – trying to uncover what she called the “deep story” they tell to themselves. Here is that story as Hochschild came to understand it:Think of people waiting in a long line that stretches up a hill. And at the top of that is the American dream. And the people waiting in line felt like they’d worked extremely hard, sacrificed a lot, tried their best, and were waiting for something they deserved. And this line is increasingly not moving, or moving more slowly.”“Then they see people cutting ahead of them in line. Immigrants, blacks, women, refugees, public sector workers. And even an oil-drenched brown pelican getting priority. In their view, people are cutting ahead unfairly. And then … there is Barack Obama, to the side, the line supervisor who seems to be waving these people (and the pelican) ahead. So the government seemed to be on the side of the people who were cutting in line and pushing the people in line back.[39]Hochschild continues:There’s something hugely important to them that many liberals can’t see. […] They feel their … beliefs are denigrated by the culture at large. They feel that they’re seen as rednecks, that they live in a region that’s being discredited. […] And the main point is that they feel the government, the federal government, has been an instrument of their marginalization.[40]Although Trump has little in common with his supporters, he has an uncanny grasp of their deep story. It’s a story that for decades many mainstream politicians paid attention to only to mock. Now the President of the United States is shoving it in their faces. To his supporters, nothing else about Trump matters.For Trump’s base the issues that draw them to him are matters of life and death, for they (especially the men) are dying in large numbers from drug overdoses, alcoholism, and suicide – what the Princeton economists Anne Case and Angus Deaton call “deaths of despair.”[41] As Hochschild summarizes their findings:Midlife deaths from drugs and alcohol (though not suicide) spiked in black communities in the 1980s when, as the sociologist William Julius Wilson has explained, offshoring of factory jobs deprived the blue-collar black man of a well-paid job that offered him a proud role as husband and father in a home he could own. Blacks suffered the first wave of deaths of despair.In today’s newer, whiter story of despair, access to a B.A. degree has almost come to determine a man’s life story. Increasingly, it predicts joblessness; among whites age 25-54, a woman with a B.A. is more likely to work than a man without one. That degree also increasingly predicts a man’s wage, because earnings for B.A.-haves have gone up over the last decades, while for B.A.-have-nots, they have gone down.And where might the blue-collar man work? Often for a temp agency or contractor with high turnover, and little employer commitment. So he won’t attend the office Christmas party (there won’t be one) or play on the union baseball team (there is no union). He’s less likely to go to church, organize the Lion’s Club fund-raiser, coach Little League or vote. Most important, four out of 10 such men won’t be coming home to a wife. Many are several girlfriends past the one who is their children’s mother, and a fair number are tragically out of touch with the children themselves.[42]In addition to populism and the deep story, there’s another context in which the election is unfolding. I touched on it already, but there’s more to say.American politics used to be structured as a debate between left and right, but over the last several years a different kind of debate was superimposed on the old one. It’s a debate between competing views of what it means to be an American, and it pits cosmopolitans against nationalists.Cosmopolitans believe that America is a “creedal nation” defined by its commitment to certain ideals. Nationalists see America is a nation-state of the European type, in which membership is constituted by a shared language, religion, race, history, and territory.Beginning in the 1990s, during the post-Cold War period, elites of both political parties adopted the creedal, cosmopolitan view. They regard the United States, in political scientist Michael Lind’s words, as “a nationless state rooted in the philosophy of liberal democracy in the abstract.”[43] Nationalists, on the other hand, view Americans as a people, not just a group of individuals who agree to abide by a set of abstract principles.Populists are on the nationalist side of this divide. Walter Russell Mead:For Jacksonians … the United States is not a political entity created and defined by a set of intellectual propositions rooted in the Enlightenment and oriented toward the fulfillment of a universal mission. Rather, it is the nation-state of the American people…. Jacksonians see American exceptionalism not as a function of the universal appeal of American ideas, or even as a function of a unique American vocation to transform the world, but rather as rooted in the country’s singular commitment to the equality and dignity of individual American citizens.[44]Many Jacksonians came to believe that the American establishment was no longer reliably patriotic, with ‘patriotism’ defined as an instinctive loyalty to the well-being and values of Jacksonian America. And they were not wholly wrong, by their lights. Many Americans with cosmopolitan sympathies see their main ethical imperative as working for the betterment of humanity in general. Jacksonians locate their moral community closer to home, in fellow citizens who share a common national bond. If the cosmopolitans see Jacksonians as backward and chauvinistic, Jacksonians return the favor by seeing the cosmopolitan elite as near treasonous – people who think it is morally questionable to put their own country, and its citizens, first.[45]Specific issues, such as gun rights and immigration, are salient in this context:Jacksonians in 2016 saw immigration as part of a deliberate and conscious attempt to marginalize them in their own country. Hopeful talk among Democrats about an ‘emerging Democratic majority’ based on a secular decline in the percentage of the voting population that is white was heard in Jacksonian America as support for a deliberate transformation of American demographics. When Jacksonians hear elites’ strong support for high levels of immigration and their seeming lack of concern about illegal immigration, they do not immediately think of their pocketbooks. They see an elite out to banish them from power – politically, culturally, demographically.[46]To conclude, there are three “layers” to Trump and his supporters. The first layer consists of issues and ideology: globalization, jobs and the economy, immigration, race and gender. The second is Trump’s supporters’ anxiety about their declining social status – or, you might say, their rising mortality rate. The third is their sense of national identity and the very meaning of America itself. Trump spends every day communicating to his base that he understands and sympathizes with all three concerns.Below, President Trump speaking in front of a portrait of Andrew Jackson.Footnotes[1] The Election Process of the US President: Made Simple - ClearIAS[2] 5 Presidents Who Lost the Popular Vote But Won the Election[3] 2016 Presidential Election Actual Results[4] https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/12/01/donald-trump-will-be-president-thanks-to-80000-people-in-three-states/[5] 2016 United States presidential election recounts - Wikipedia[6] The Path to 270 in 2020 - Center for American Progress[7] Trump Campaign’s Hopes Rest on Boosting White Working-Class Turnout [8] Two Years In[9] California President: general election Polls[10] Michigan President: general election Polls[11] Pennsylvania President: general election Polls[12] Wisconsin President: general election Polls[13] North Carolina President: general election Polls[14] What the numbers say about Trump's chances at reelection[15] Florida President: general election Polls[16] Arizona President: general election Polls[17] Ohio President: general election Polls[18] Pennsylvania President: general election Polls[19] Minnesota President: general election Polls[20] Nevada President: general election Polls[21] Maine President: general election Polls[22] New Hampshire President: general election Polls[23] What the numbers say about Trump's chances at reelection[24] Jill Stein - Wikipedia[25] Gary Johnson - Wikipedia[26] The Election Came Down to 77,744 Votes in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan (Updated)[27] Poll: Third party voters from 2016 are backing Biden 2-to-1[28] What the numbers say about Trump's chances at reelection[29] Trump Trails Biden on Most Personal Traits, Major Issues[30] The Jacksonian Revolt[31] Ideological Heterogeneity and the Rise of Donald Trump[32] Polarized America: The Dance of Ideology and Unequal Riches[33] Party Polarization and Party Structuring of Policy Attitudes: A Comparison of Three NES Panel Studies[34] Activists and Conflict Extension in American Party Politics | American Political Science Review | Cambridge Core[35] Authoritarianism and Polarization in American Politics | American government, politics and policy[36] The Two Majorities[37] Multidimensional Study of Ideological Preferences and Priorities among the American Public[38] Few Americans Express Positive Views of Trump’s Conduct in Office[39] What a liberal sociologist learned from spending five years in Trump's America[40] What a liberal sociologist learned from spending five years in Trump's America[41] How the White Working Class Is Being Destroyed[42] How the White Working Class Is Being Destroyed[43] The American Creed: Does It Matter? Should It Change?[44] The Jacksonian Revolt[45] The Jacksonian Revolt[46] The Jacksonian Revolt