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Why is the Spacex starship so much less reliable than other rockets? They have variously exploded, before, during and after flight which suggests multiple problems. The latest one seemed to be rocket engines packing up.

WarningMartin,I put a lot of effort in answering your question based on my decades of experience and though and training on these subjects. So, don’t be a f-ing ass. Otherwise I will block you again. Here’s hoping for a more positive response.Crash Testing Rockets Makes them SaferDon’t judge SpaceX by their crash tests. Judge SpaceX by their operational record.Accelerated life testing - WikipediaInsurers, manufacturers and designers learned a long time ago that nothing beat crash testing your product.NASA learned the hard way that hypersonic wind tunnel testing of a 3 inch model might give good aerothemodynamic data for a full scale shuttle, but it wouldn’t explore all the failure modes like a bit of foam breaking off the ET and shattering a thermal tile on one of the wings.Or that individual unit testing of various space shuttle parts might give you good reliability data for rocket failure, but miss the possibility that one failure mode like a leaky o ring would lead to another failure mode, like a burned through strut, that led to another failure mode like repturing an oxygen tank that led to another failure mode the explosion ot the ET. You need test flights for that.The same thing happens with any complex device.That’s why car insurers and car companies crash test cars before putting them on the road.Its why SpaceX crash tests their rockets. Its how SpaceX and no one else figured out how to recover a rocket that launches a payload to space and made them the success they are today.Check it out.With those profits earned by rocket launches that have 50% margins, they launched Star Link, and with those profits, 50 million channel at $85 per month earning more than NASA in free cash flow, they are building Starship.To find out how to make Starship safer SpaceX crash tests that. When the SpaceX enters service it will have achieved two amazing advancements;35,000 flight cycles per ship6.5 million flights between crashes.This will make Starship the safest rocket around.Safer than airplanes.Starship will then be able to fly Earth to Earth anywhere airplanes fly in 37 minutes or less (most flights will be 11 minutes). Then they will sell Starships at a 6 per day rate to airlines, flying off off shore platforms everywhere old sea planes used to fly in the 1930s.With Earth to Earth profits SpaceX will start serious work on the Heavy. By the time they’re done with that SpaceX will be selling next generation Starships on Earth to Earth markets and begin buying back the older ships after 3 to 5 years of service and refit them and launch them to orbit and offer them for sale to enthusiasts at a steep discount on a fractional rocket sales program.Musk announed he was planning to orbit the Starship by June. Everyone asked how is that possible without the Heavy booster?Well, with the heavy booster the Starship will lift 100 tons to low earth orbit.Without the booster it will lift itself into Low Earth Orbit.How else can you do aerothermal testing of an airframe that large without a super massive hypersonic wind tunnel?You can't.It costs less to crash a dozen ships in an accelerated testing program than build something that big.So, look for more dramatic pics of SpaceX rockets spraying across the sky.You see, insurers and auto manufacturers learned long ago crash testing cars kept people safe and claims down by seeing how failures worked in controlled environments.NASA learned the hard way that scaling small models tested in hypersonic wind tunnels doesn't cut it. Nor does ground testing units. Only flight tests of entire REUSABLE rockets in an accelerated stress program cuts costs overall.We should have lost the two shuttles we did lose in two test flights back to back with no one on board. Pushing the rockets hard so that if they were to fail, the would fail. Instead we spent more than we should inspecting modelling and putting human lives at risk.So, my approach to reusability and and safety is crash testing drones until all the failure modes are well mapped out and corrected.Live and Learn.ADDENDUMSo,Once Musk demonstrates* 35,000 flight cycle useful life* 1 loss in 6.5 million flightsHe will be in a position to send Starship Earth to Earth and comprete head to head against airliners.That's why he's buying up disused oil drilling platforms and floating them to major city centers for use a launch and landing platforms.When he uses Stewart Platforms on them he eliminates the need for landing gaer or use greatly reduced landing gear saving tremendous weight and improving performance.Raptor is 3.8 km/sec exhaust speed in vacuum.Empty weight is 120 tons with cabins and such.The stage carries 100 tons to orbit as a second stage, and carries 1200 tons of propellant.So, 1420 total weight, 220 empty weight then delta vee is using the Tsiolkovksy rocket equation;3.8*ln(1420/220) = 7.086 km/secOrbital speed at Earth's surface is escape speed divided by square root of 2 according to Kepler, that's 7.905 km/sec.Of course you have to get above the air, that means flying straight up 450 km so there is a gravity drag to over come.There is also air drag as you accelerate.Set up an Euler Legrange equation for energy in the system. Use Calculus of Variation that gives you the path of least work going up and turning over toward the horizon.Find this requires a delta vee of 9.4 km/sec from Southern Texas latitudes.Each rocket has a changing radius of gyration that changes as you empty it.You want the center of gravity to move forward not back, that gives you a nice 'gravity turn' trajectory that matches the path of least work with a small constant picthing thrust.So you put your propellant that has higher density ahead of the lower density propellant.Adjust your expansion ratio of your drive turbine of our open cycle rocket to give that thrust, this is old school.Starship has a dual cycle closed turbine system, far more efficient and a gimballing engine, far more efficient.With advanced thin walled construction -- and no cabins - you can get the weight of the shell and engines to 52 tons for the SpaceX. I hear they're using 1/16 inch thick super metal used on their engines, and coated with avanced ceramics.I'm reminded of Ayn Rand's hero building super metal rail roads -- haha.This lets Musk run oxygen rich as well as fuel rich in his dual closed cycle setup and throttle the engine up.He can lift Starship to orbit with 6 raptors that way.Even so, the octo-support structure can house more engines when needed to haul 30 tons to 60 tons on suborbital flight. But with 52 ton structure the rocket attains3.8*ln(1252/52) = 12.083 km/sec.This ship empty could escape Earth!Starship certainly has enough omph to take off and land after a few orbits, even fly around the moon and return and land on Earth.That's what superstrong super capable materials are good for.The Heavy Booster lets him haul 100 tons to orbit with this stage.Refilling 2 Starships on orbit with 10 tanker flights each and refilling an empty Tanker on orbit with 12 tanker flights, lets him take 200 tons to the moon and back leaving a Tanker on Moon orbit holding propellant to bring all three ships back.10 tanker flights for each Starship refill and 24 tanker flights for TWO tanker refills, take a Starhip with 100 tons to Mars. After Mars injection burn Tanker A transfers spare propellant to Passenger ship. All are flying a Crocco Orbit past Mars that bring them back to Earth precisely 2 years after launch, so if something happens the ships return. However, only the empty Tanker completes that orbit. The filled Passenger ship and half-filled tanker aerobrake at Mars. The tanker stays on orbit with fuel to return. The passenger ship lands on Mars with enough fuel to boost to the tanker when it comes time to go home.ReliabilityWith the accelerated test program of crash testing the rockets at this point in their development and attaining the reliability figures quoted for a one hour flight cycle a 10 day mission and 1000 day mission has the following reliabilities per ship, and improved reliabilities with the operational approach cited,1 loss in 6.5 million Earth to Earth flights (1 hour flight time) --> 800 pod chairs that allow 100% survivability in the event of vehicle loss.1 loss in 27,083 flights Moon flights (10 day flight time) --> fleet of 2 with spares 1 loss in 73.3 million flights1 loss in 271 Mars flights (1000 day flight time) --> fleet of 4 with spares 1 loss in 5.42 billion flightsRapid Loading and UnloadingShort flight times put pressure on ground time. So that is an important detail for ballistic passenger service.I gave a talk as part of DoT licensing for my Green Space launch business in 1996 and had in my original business plan reviewed by NASA at Huntsville before speaking with TRW about using their pintle fed enignes to recover boosters. The upper stage used what I called zero aisle seating.That is with advanced engineering of thin film web structures, you can make the hull of the ship like the octoweb or honey comb. The way a honeycomb is made by bees. With very strong pods where people sit that are ejectable.Each pod has its own hatch. I surround the ship with a spiral ramp that starts at the nose and wraps around the ship. An escalator takes passengers to the top of the spiral ramp and they walk down the ramp to their seat which is facing outward.Those exiting the craft leave their seat, continue down the ramp and exit the ramp at the bottom of the ramp next to the upbound escalator above. This occurs as the ship refills during Earth to Earth travel. The spiral ramp splits and retracts after all hatches are sealed and all passengers in place.Each hatch has autosterescopic display on the inside. There is a transparent window on an inside door with LED curtain on the inside.54 seats per level around the 9 meter diameter fuselage. Two seating levels for each floor level.For long duration flights the inner door opens to the interior of the craft, which has fewer passengers than Earth to Earth, and common areas above and mechanical areas below and stowage below.For short duration flights the entire fuselage is covered with doors and up to 800 people fly on board. the interior space is used for cargo storage which is all carry on. Space for golf clubs and the like.Stuff you put under and behind your seat get ejected in the capsule in an emergency. There are weight limits for these. Any big luggage goes down with the ship in an emergency. The pod operates like the old design for the XB-70 and the B-58 both of which my graduate advisor, Dr. Gregorek worked on back in the day.Excepting the passenger pod on the Starship is totally air tight and instead of 20% of the pod weight being taken up by parachutes and the like, only 2% of the pod weight is taken up by high performing microrockets that guide the pod to a safe landing at safe points along the flight and bring it to a soft touchdown.Basically prior to reaching burn out speed you fly back to the launch center emergency landing pads.Emergency ejection after reaching final speed you fly back to the emergency landing pads at your destination.Emergency Ejection SystemControls for such rockets are a solved problem.A Flying Inverted PendulumGrad students are doing this in labs routinely.Graduates are starting companies using tech to make products.Jet Engines Strapped to Feet Going 103.4 MPH! In 8K!This ability for highly controlled VTOL flights inspired Airbus to float thier 'pop up' flying car concept. Here drones pick up and deposit passengers door to door flying them to the airport in minutes.Security Check en-routeThis door to door process carries out all security procedures in the drone and prior to landing at the rocket pad.Luggage is scanned passengers scanned and interviewed by AI -- big data checks against back ground all following the initial contact through to the flight to the rocket and on through flight to destination and return.Visa work and such similar check out during flight to final destination if out of country.This is the way I envisioned it.With Musk you will likely arrive by special auto-Drive tesla, with an underground /underwater tunnel going to a floating platform in minutes travelling surface streets then diving into the tunnel. Called by an Uber style app. haha.Green Space Earth to EarthI was going to use something like the EHANG powered by hydrogen fuel cells.I was going to use hydrogen fuel not Methane fuel in my rocket as well using an array of far smaller rockets throughout that use free piston pumps to resolve a lot of difficuties associated with turbopumps. Even so, I explored shirt button sized micro-turbines are also an interesting possiblity as well as outlined by Epstein at MIT (not Jeffrey).Hydrogen CarPerfecting a powerful lightweight fuel cell for EHANG primary power is perfing to build a hydrogen BMW. The advanced materials in the Jet and in Starship is used to build a tubular monocoque frame strong enough to hold very high pressurised hydrogen gas to run a BMW 7 series 1200 km between fill ups. haha. Insulated framework with micro-cryocooler array powered by fuel cell to produce zero boil off system as well. This has the potential to have greater range.Replace a battery pack in the EHANG with liquid hydrogen fuel tanks and high power fuel cells and fly all day. This EHANG style pod also has a rocket landing capability should the rotors fail for any reason — using the flyboard and pod lifting unit that is proven by this time.Lox carried on board run an air augmented hydrogen rocket in that event.1200 landing points are VTOL parking spots for the EHANG that encircle the rocket and a circular moving sidewalk carries people to the departure and arrival lounge where the ramps are.Recovery ZoneBeyond the landing points are emergency landing points for returning pods in an emergency. There are surplus pods being serviced and others used for training on some of them. People will have seen the tests of these pods in the news and be comforted by this. They know they have a very high probability of surviving a rocket blowing up. Also, there is a Jump Zone for rocket powered joy rides operated from some of the spare sites -- again to keep crews active and earning income waiting for emergencies that hopefully never come. The joy riders fly atop flyboards around the rocket pad watching rockets land and take off as the circle lazily above the water in controlled air space. The rocket line promises return of Heavy Cargo since the entire nose cone section freed from the main rocket body has the capacity to land with cargo only if there is a loss of booster.Flyboard Use Off WorldTwo rocket flyboards are carried along on the Moon trips and Mars trips for each passenger and kept fuelled. One is built into the pod, one is free standing and in a passenger locker in the stowage area. The free standing flyboard operates on the moon and Mars to provide long range travel for travellers on the Moon and Mars. Very similar to the bell Lunar Flight Unit. Of course in the 21st century with advanced materials things go a lot farther, and with advanced computing, are dead easy to fly.Bell Lunar Flying Unit Prototype (1968)These were fuelled by ullage from the LEM descent stage and had the capacity using fuel from the LEM ascent stage to rendezvous with the orbiting CSM in a pinch. This could fly to any point on the moon in about 90 minutes. It was rejected by NASA because they thought it too risky. Two of these on the moon would be less risky than moon rover. NASA insisted the astronauts needed to walk backto the LEM in a pinch. Idiocy. They shoulda done this rocket not the GM insipred rover. lol.My approach has the potential to outclass them all, using flyboard tech, and I think Musk will do that.Regulatory Hurdles SolvedThe big issue is regulation. OSHA has classified space workers as Radiation Workers and there's way too much radiation in space Material science has come to the rescule here. Boronated Polyethylene provides significant radiation protection at very little weight. A half meter thick boronated Polyethylene with the hydrogen replaced with Deuterium is very light weight and makes the entire nose cone vritually radiation proof. Still Cosmic Gamma Ray Bursts and Solar Bursts could be a problem. These are detected well in advance by a small fleet of nano satellites flying far from the main fleet. They signal folks to take EX RAD radiation doses which they carry around with them always.With OSHA saying its unsafe, FAA won't allow ticket sales. But I have a work around on that. Fractional rocket ownership. Like Net Jets but for rockets. You buy a fractional cabin and pay all running costs. Then this gets licensed as an experimental ship. You cannot hire people to fly it and you cannot sell tickets. You can sell fractional ownership though. So, you can approach talented people to command you and train you for the trip, and arrange financing for them to buy a share at a discount , and even arrange to guarantee a buy iback so they can get a credit line against the notional income which the paying pasengers arrange. Since any buyer has the option to sell, this makes them all enthusiasts flying an experimental aircrat, and as long as they don't interfere with public flight (and filing a launch plan achieve that) or put the public at risk (these ships are already FAA approved for Earth to Earth, and are purchased from the fleet ofused rockets which after 3 years of service exit to orbital stoage after deep space refurbishment (removing seats and adding common areas).Flyboards & SpacesuitsEach off world owner has a lightweight emergency suit in their pod, and a long duration heavy suit in a locker in the stowage area. The pod has its own propulsion system and can operate as a free flying spacecraft ejected from a larger spacecraft in an emergency. The flyboard is in the stowage locker with the heavier suit.These suits are made of ‘smart fabric’ that maintain mechanical pressure without air, yet provide the skin with all it needs with minimum mass and volume and improved comfort. Heads up display and voice and gesture and facial recognition is included. Micromachine arrays of fuel cells, cryocoolers, and life support provide highly reliable long duration operation. Light trapping flexible photocells knitted into the suit exterior provide power for long term operation in both suits.Weyland Industries' Bio suit. Hi ResThe storage behind the beneath the seat in the Earth to Earth pod is transformed into an emergency suit storage locker. There is along duration suit in the Stowage Deck locker array with flyboard as mentioned.Emergency ExitIn an inflight Emergency on a Mars trip you receive notice, stop whatever you're doing. If you're forward of the cabin deck you proceed to your cabin and put on your emergency suit and proceed to the Warehouse deck get your flyboard and stand in your assigned spot near your locker. Then when the main warehouse doors open you fly out when signaled, according to your training. You fly from your ship which is tethered and spinning to produce Mars normal gravity another tethered spinning ship assigned to you. You are welcomed aboard that ship. After the drill there is a party and everyone flies back. This also airs out foul odors from the ship and kills any rat or insect infestations and leaves things feeling clean.People routinely file to fly from one ship to another, or go to the bosn's cabin to check on the tanker ships, or do external inspections of the ships, or just joy ride and star gaze far from the fleet and have lunch in your long duration space suit enjoying zero gee during the trip out and back from the Moon and Mars. 3.5 days out and 3.5 back from the moon 3 days on the moon surface. 270 days to Mars 270 days back 360 days on Mars.Off World PowerMe with my first 8 ft dish where I surpassed the Shockley Quisser limit by using the whole spectrum to make hydrogen at 65% efficiency- haha -- Les Wexner said I shoulda gotten the Nobel Prize. Which is why he introduced me to Jeffrey Epstein.Victoria’s Secret Has More Than a Jeffrey Epstein ProblemThat woulda kick started this program with Coal to Oil which would turn into acquisition of Sunoco and addition of hydrogen pumps and a JV with BMW to distribute hydrogen cars first in Texas where there are plenty of depleted gas wells to store surplus hydrogen for the 8 BMW dealers there.https://seekingalpha.com/article/881391-energy-after-the-peak-merger-of-coal-and-refiners-replaces-conventional-oilBuy 25,000 BMW hydrogen 7 cars for distribution there as described. Build a rocket port in New Mexico. Even talked with Governor Richardson about that. To do the accelerated testing. Boeing LockMart were selling a spare ULA facility at the time. I would buy TRW from Northop Grumman. Still could do -- would give Musk a run for his money. lol. I got Peter Beck Adam Spice and Mark Rocket on board for a larger Neutron rocket and to do recovery. haha.MokPhI Part 2 Draft01There will be a Zubrin style ISRU solar powered (hopefully with my faceted thin film solar sphere) making propellant on Mars' surface. This will kep the flyboard flying. haha. And even provide enough propellant for periodic return and inspection of the tanker ships and return by flyboard. With enough reserve for the flyboard to take the adventurous to Deimos and Phobos. The nano satellite array equipped with their own solar powered ion engines, take up orbit between Deimos and Phobos in Mars synchronous orbit and provide planet wide coverage of Star Link style service directly to suit so everyone has broadband everywhere. Also provide daily weather reports and overhead surveillance. To support exploration operations planned by the crew and approved by the command and rescue operations if needed.Revenue Opportunities on First Mars FlightPeople will be on the look out for gem quality stones which a jewler on board will turn into fabulous and highly prized jewlery which has already been arranged to resell on Earth.Others will vacuum brew a very smooth brandy not possible with the oxygen on Earth - that's the narrative.14 Most Expensive Brandies In The World | VenturedFrom black crystal bottles to limited releases to rare-aged classics, here are the 14 most expensive brandies in the worldhttps://ventured.com/14-most-expensive-brandies-in-the-world/Still others will make water on Mars carbonated with Mars atmosphere and both brandy and water still and bubbly will be bottled in glass bottles made from martian sand and decorated with metals extracted from iron meteorites collected on the martian surface.Top 10 Most Expensive Bottled Waters In The World 2020Water is everywhere which drops to afford a drink. This is the reason why people say the prices are exotic with the exorbitant in the bottled water. It seems like it is the area which droughts and hits all the areas in the world. The most expensive bottled water is available everywhere in the world. The bottled water is purified, sparkled and distilled from the spring and it is sourced out from the artesian well and rain. Flavors can be added in it of different nature. Some of the items are expensive and are simple due to the luxurious decided item. Some are the most expensive bottled waters are listed as follows 1) Acqua di Cristallo Tributo a Modigliani [su_table] Cost $ 60, 000 per 750 ml [/su_table] This bottle is the most expensive one which has about 750 ml in $ 60, 000 and it quenches with the thirst and also empties your pocket. This water is received from the Fiji or France. While thinking of it, it is considered as the most expensive bottle which is made of solid gold and it weighs about 24 karats. Fernando Altamira no designed this bottle of Tequila by Ley Fame and the makers were the most expensive spirits and credited as well with the design of Cognac Dudgeon Heritage Henri IV. They are considered to be the most expensive bottled water in the world. The solid green bottle has different versions of gold matte, crystals and silver matter which is also a combination of these three. The gold bottles are solid green which are sold for $ 3, 600 dollars and these bottles were enclosed in a leather case. It contains about 5 milligrams of dust gold. 2) Kona Nigari Water [su_table] [/su_table] The Kona Nigari water is the bottled water which is sold in Japan and is advertised to lose weight and also it reduces stress and also improves the quality and skin tone. This is made up of the purified water and it is collected from the thousand feet below the surface of the ocean in the area of Hawaii Island. 400 bucks are paid more to satisfy the thirst during the dermatologist job, psychiatrist and fitness trainer. It does not seem to be a bad deal. 3) Fillico [su_table] [/su_table] The bottles are built with the chess piece and they are specifically the kind of queen or king which fit in because of the bottles of Fillico and top with the crowns in gold that associate with the royalty. The water is produced in bottle in Japan in Osaka. It is the most expensive bottled water in Japan. 4) Bling H2O [su_table] [/su_table] The bottled water is surprised with the high prices which are suggested in the retail price at $ 40. It is named with the Bling which brought to the huge jewelry mind to be worn to show other people. This bottle is made of the crystals of Swarovski and they have a cork shape like the champagne bottle while it has fizz and open bottle of champagne which is freshly popped. People start tossing with Bling glass and these athletes douse with these contents of Bling to win after winning the competition of sports. 5) Veen [su_table] [/su_tabhttps://toprichests.com/top-10-expensive-bottled-waters-world/The 750 ml bottles are presold to Hilton Hotel chain at $100 per milliliter unsold portions will be sold at Christies starting at this price. This establishes market price.Hilton gets a portion of the revenue and has some downside coverage if market doesn't support initial price. Otherwise ship owners get surplus and Hilton has an established market price for their product for sale at the hotel and a built in margin.The jewelry sells for what top tier dimond sell for. Give her the stars campaign.The fleet owners get the benefit of the sales above that.The fleet of four or more rockets will have the crew consume 73% of the consumables on board by the time they depart Mars and that weight is available to return to Earth as these items which includes wines and champagnes consumed in flight and brandy's are rebottled after sterilisation and remarked -- marked and refilled with Mars made product.With the fuel processing plant off loaded and the inflatable Mars habitats off loaded and the nano satellites off loaded, each ship and each tanker has the capacity to carry 20 tons back. 160 tons in all. 1200 filled bottles per ton. 5 million carats of jewels per ton. $90 million per ton for Brandy and Water. $10 billion per ton for jewelry ($2,000 per carat) Same deal.DeBeers has a deal to sell stuff at $2000 per carat, with a portion reserved for sale at Christies to establish market price, same down side security deal, same upside for ship owners.Talented crew who were given shares at a discount can earn enough from this, they can have their share and their position freehold and continue operations.They can even offer to buy others' positions at the end of the journey to sell to others on credit with buy back option like them, yet with money flowing to them instead of away from them. With the new owners on later flights paying the difference and showing the ability to cover all their operationg costs.This is how I transition to ticketed interplanetary flights from experimental flights, as I lobby FAA and OSHA for regulation changes.Flight Rate and RevenueFlights for each fleet occur every 4.28 years per fleet. The Crocco return tankers fly every 2.14 years. Missed opportunities refly every 2.14 years as well. As do short duration stay (emergency return from surface before long term commit)Two fleets operating nominally provide for launch every 2.14 years. Flight duration 32.88 months (1000 days) 562 days between flights for refit and training flights for new buyers. This includes sub orbital flights, orbiting flights and a lunar flight before leaving for Mars.960 owners across 8 ships in two fleets evey 4.28 years translates to 224.3 passengers per year. $20 million per owner per flight is $4.485 billion per year for the eight ships and ten tankers. $1.92 billion for the ships. Not including the sale of items produced on Mars and returned to Earth.Longer TermOver time more assets are accumulated on Mars and towns and cities grow. More importantly the fleet size grows and the cost per trip drops while the range of products made and used on Mars expands.Self Replicating Utility FogIn Situ Resource Utilisation makes graphene and diamond from Mars CO2 along with free oxygen. Machines pressurise oxygen and nitrogen in the atmosphere to fit inside diamond pressure vessels made on Mars.Cover the pressure vessel with 1.5 meters of Martian sand -- put my solar sphere outside to focus sunlight to an optical fiber and grow stuff indoors in Earth normal light. Put my high efficiency solar system in one of the fibers and make elctricity.Thin film inflatable faceted concentratoryA centrifuge on a maglev support combined with a spinning mass energy storage unit, stores energy for 24 hours 37 minutes a Martian day. It allows people to work and sleep in a 1 gee environment at the rim. A cup shaped form that has a 2 meter wide opening served by a spiral stair case and a 4 meter wide opening that moves at walking speed and is flat with a 1 meter wide platorm around the opening (recall the iris opening over the stairs. As you walk to the rim the gravity increases and angle increases to 22.2 degrees at 1 gee. About the size of the centrifuge used in 2001 A Space Odyssey.

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