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Crime rates do not reflect criminality. There has been a big push for political reasons to undercharge criminal behavior and even to not charge criminal behavior to achieve favorable crime statistics and to further political narratives.California is a prime example of that. Proposition 47 released many criminals years before their prison sentence ended who were in prison for supposedly non violent crimes. Sounds good right? However among those criminals who were released, more than a few had pleaded down to a lesser crime in order to get shorter prison sentences.District attorneys generally give plea deals below the crimes charged so that they get their man/women in prison while the perpetrator agrees in order to gets lighter sentence and earlier parole. In California, Prop 47 has turned into a ‘virtual get-out-of-jail free card’But that’s not the worst of it. Even with arrests and convictions, the crimes are grossly under reported. There was a recent report that after Prop 47, car break in crimes as reported by police are down but car insurance claims for break ins are dramatically increasing. That doesn’t even remotely make sense. There is rampant crime reporting deflation. After Proposition 47: Crime and No Consequences in California | National ReviewOnce police had Nathan Hunter in handcuffs, they tended to his wife.She was covered in blood. She told the officers Hunter flew into a rage that night in February 2013 because she hadn't bought him a Valentine's Day gift. He beat and choked her before stabbing her in the face with a screwdriver and throwing her down a flight of stairs at their apartment in South L.A., according to police and court records.Hunter, 55, was convicted of felony spousal abuse and sentenced to six years in prison.Under FBI rules followed by police departments across the country, the beating should have been counted as an aggravated assault because Hunter used a weapon and caused serious injuries.That's not what happened. The Los Angeles Police Department classified it as a simple assault — a minor offense not included in the city's official tally of serious crimes.It was no isolated case. The LAPD misclassified nearly 1,200 violent crimes during a one-year span ending in September 2013, including hundreds of stabbings, beatings and robberies, a Times investigation found.The incidents were recorded as minor offenses and as a result did not appear in the LAPD's published statistics on serious crime that officials and the public use to judge the department's performance.Nearly all the misclassified crimes were actually aggravated assaults. If those incidents had been recorded correctly, the total aggravated assaults for the 12-month period would have been almost 14% higher than the official figure, The Times found. LAPD misclassified nearly 1,200 violent crimes as minor offenses LA Times.This pattern in Los Angeles is repeated in large city after large city. Less “serious” crimes by homeless people and crimes by illegal immigrants are largely ignored. Serious crimes are downgraded to avoid reporting. Why? Because it makes police chiefs look great and politicians go along. Invariably it fits the narrative of big city mayors and city councils who are almost always Democrats who believe that homeless people and illegal immigrants are victims and should be treated differently that the average taxpayer in their cities. In California, getting pulled over without a valid registration and proof of insurance will get your car impounded and give you a very expensive ticket. But if you are an illegal immigration, nothing happens. Judge OKs LAPD's Unlicensed Driver Release RuleOne of the only major American cities where under reporting of crime doesn’t happen is Chicago because those pesky gang related killings are hard to report as minor assaults.In the aftermath of the Broward County school shooting, it came out that there was great political pressure to not charge juveniles with crimes as a social justice solution, a nationwide policy under the Obama administration’s Department of Justice.Valbrun-Pope was referring to what an article by Jeffrey Benzing in Public Source calls the "Broward County Solution." As Benzing relates, Broward County used to lead the state of Florida in sending students to the state's juvenile justice system. County leaders responded with a perfectly progressive solution: "lower arrests by not making arrests."Authorities agreed to treat twelve different misdemeanor offenses as school-related issues, not criminal ones. The results impressed the people who initiated the program. Arrests dropped from more than a thousand in 2011-2012 to less than four hundred just four years later.One particular motivation behind programs like Broward County's was the pressure from multiple sources to reduce the statistical disparity between black and Hispanic student arrests on one hand and white and Asian student arrests on the other. Benzing writes, for instance, how a Denver organization called "Padres & Jóvenes Unidos" successfully advocated for a program like Broward's to help achieve "racial and education equity" in Denver schools.As one detective told investigators, the arrest statistics coming out of Martin's school, Dr. Michael M. Krop Senior High School, had been "quite high," and the detectives "needed to find some way to lower the stats." This directive allegedly came from the police chief. At least a few officers confirmed that the chief was particularly concerned with the arrest rates of minority males in the Miami-Dade system.In July 2012, the Obama administration formalized the pressure on school districts with an executive order warning school districts to avoid "methods that result in disparate use of disciplinary tools." The White House focused on black students in particular and headlined the press release announcing this dubious stroke of racism "President Obama Signs New Initiative to Improve Educational Outcomes for African Americans." Did the Progressive 'Broward County Solution' Cost 17 Student Lives?To answer the question. National statistics are not an accurate reflection of what communities are experiencing.The following is an eye opening analysis indicating that crimes by illegal immigrants are far higher than what is reported than when only looking at national averages. But it should true that any crime by an illegal immigrant is boosting crime rates in America because if the perpetrator wasn’t in the country illegally to begin with, the crime would not have been possible. Crimes by illegal aliens, not legal immigrants, are the real problem

This pretty well sums up my opinion of David Hogg. He has been coached, coddled and cosseted by Michael Bloomberg and has capitalized on his celebrity as the survivor of a tragedy that was allowed to happen through ineptitude and failures of the Broward County school board, the administration of Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School, the sheer incompetence and cowardice of the Broward County Sheriff’s Office and a failure to properly route information by the FBI.Sheriff Scott Israel was removed from office by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in part because of the failure to properly respond to the incident.But David Hogg and his coterie of schoolmates gave a free pass to the sheriff’s office, Deputy Scot Petersen and everybody else in order to focus blame a Smith & Wesson rifle and a small business that had done nothing wrong at all. The business, Sunrise Tactical, was forced to close its doors after the shooting.It is highly ironic that a person supposedly damaged for life because of the actions of a person who passed a background check is such a strong proponent of them. The shooter was able to pass the background check in spite of the fact he had a long history of interactions with law enforcement due to his violent behavior. He had no criminal background, no record because he was never prosecuted for his offenses. That’s because of the policies of the Broward County school district and the Broward County Sheriff’s Office.This is not NRA propaganda. These were among the findings of the Marjory Stoneman Douglas Commission created by the state of Florida in response to the incident. The commission released its preliminary report in January of this year.On to my opinion of polls and the people that participate in them.Last week, NPR (National Public Radio) and the PBS Newshour conducted a Marist poll of 880 adults. The poll was conducted from February 5th through 11th.The poll showed that 82% of adults believed that background checks would make a difference. Just 15% said they would make no difference. 68% of self-identified gun owners were in favor of background checks but 30% said they would make no difference. The poll also found that 60% of respondents favored a ban on “assault weapons” and 64% favored creation of a national gun registry. 65% also believed a ban on high-capacity magazines would make a difference.The last question in the survey was, “From what you have read or heard, do you think, compared to 25 years ago, the per capita gun murder rate in the U.S. is higher, lower, or about the same?”In an odd coincidence, 82% of those surveyed believed that the gun murder rate had remained the same (23%) and the majority (59%) believing it was higher. Only 12% believed the rate had gone down.The latest data we have is from 2017. the 25-year period that includes both beginning and ending years starts in 1993. According to data complied by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the gun murder rate fell by more than 36% from 1993 to 2017.So 82% of respondents had no idea what they were talking about. That’s not surprising; they have been fed a stream of distortions and lies by politicians and media and by celebrities who don’t know what they’re talking about, either.Political party didn’t seem to matter except in the percentage of ill-informed people. Only 8% of Democrats and 9% of Republicans were aware of the truth. I am almost embarrassed to say that gun owners did no better than the average of the respondents.David Hogg’s comment is interesting. I am not afraid of a background check, I have gone through far more of them than he has, especially considering that he can’t even legally purchase a gun since Florida raised the minimum age to 21.But the background check law currently being rammed through the House isn’t about buying a gun. It’s about transferring a firearm, which is a whole different ball of wax.The federal government considers anything that shifts the physical possession of a firearm from one person to another, even temporarily, to be a transfer. If I hand my wife a gun for her to look at, that’s a transfer. When she hands it back, that’s another transfer.The bill currently being marked up does exempt me and my wife handing guns back and forth. I can even give her a gun to keep. I can do the same for my children.I can also let a friend use one of my guns at a shooting range or while hunting. But, if I let him keep the gun after the trip to clean it as a favor to me, that’s a felony, even though he is going to return it the next day.As a sop to the NRA and gun rights advocates, the bill specifically prohibits national gun registration. In the first place, that’s stupid. Establishment of a federal registry of guns or gun owners has been illegal since 1986. So this bill does what? Makes something that’s already illegal “illegaler?” In the second place, it makes the law impossible to enforce.If the government doesn’t know who owns what guns, how is it going to monitor the transfers of those guns? How is it going to make a case for prosecution? Why wouldn’t a police chief or county sheriff figure that they have better uses for their resources than chasing down cases they can’t prove. Are we going to have sting operations to catch Mr. Jones selling his old hunting rifle to his next-door neighbor? What if Mr. Jones and his neighbor said that it was actually sold before the law went into effect?Noted gun control advocate Garen Wintemute did a study of three states that enacted universal background check laws, Colorado, Delaware and Washington state. Only Delaware had a significant increase in the volume of background check inquiries. The volumes in Colorado and Washington remained essentially flat. The homicide rates in all three states rose in the years after the laws went into effect. Wintemute concluded that the laws were ineffective because people ignored them and, in some cases, county sheriffs weren’t enforcing them.Moreover, results from other states with universal background checks are mixed. Illinois and Maryland, both of which require checks on every sale outside of immediate family, consistently report some of the highest homicide rates in the nation. Washington, D.C. is at the top or near the top every year.The thing is that I am not afraid of a background check: I am concerned about what will happen when they continue to prove to be worthless.

Florida would have a lot more criminals.At this point in time, I think questions about the proposed ban are academic.I understand why the groups promoting the ban elected to go the route of of a referendum-driven constitutional amendment. There’s no way they would get it enacted as legislation.The reality is that there isn’t much chance they will get it approved as an amendment, either.Even if the groups can get enough valid signatures, I don’t see them getting 60% of the total vote, even if every single registered Democrat in the state were to vote in favor.Ron DeSantis was elected governor of Florida by a margin of less than four percent. But he won without carrying any of the state’s biggest cities, including Jacksonville, Miami, Orlando, and Tampa and the state capital, Tallahassee. But DeSantis won almost everywhere else.That’s just one of the minefields proponents of the amendment will have to navigate.Florida isn’t called the “Gunshine State” for no reason. Florida has more active concealed-carry permits than any other state. Roughly 12% of adult Floridians hold them.In addition, the proposed amendment is about guns and contains two words that almost guarantee failure in Florida: “ban” and “registration.” Those might play well in Broward County but they will crash and burn in Collier County, which is right next door.Opponents of the amendment have some powerful ammunition. They can discredit most of the claims advanced by proponents. Even the Pulse Night Club shooting and the Parkland tragedy run into trouble.Omar Mateen not only passed the background check to buy the SIG Sauer MCX rifle he used, he had also passed the checks required to be a licensed security officer in the state. He had been on the FBI’s “no-fly” list but was removed. The state commission investigating the shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School found lots of culpability, but none of it had anything to do with the Smith & Wesson M&P-15 rifle he bought at Sunrise Tactical.If Floridians do approve the amendment, the trouble will be just beginning. You can bet on massive non-compliance.