Cao Declaration Form 2016: Fill & Download for Free

Was going to give my 2 cents first. But then came across an article soooo good. I think I shall just shut up. The article is written by “姚尧” (Yao Yao). Please support the author. Here is the link: 蔡英文为什么输这么惨？ (How did Tsai lose so badly?)Without further ado, hereunder is the google translate for the article. (Fixed by me. Sorry if there is grammer/spelling/bad-English errors.)At the beginning of 2016, the KMT was defeated in the Taiwan presidential election. At that time, Yao wrote an article saying, "Why did Ma Ying-jeou lose so badly? "," the article compares Ma Ying-jeou to Chongzhen (Author: Last emperor in the Ming Dynasty). Immediately after Yao published the article "Tsai Ing-wen can’t escape Li Zicheng's dilemma", the article reads:At the end of this article I wrote:On June 13 this year, Yao wrote at the end of the article "G7, Special Gold Club and Recovery of Taiwan":Today, the DPP suffered an unprecedented defeat in the mid-term elections, and Tsai Ing-wen was forced to resign from the party chairman, which fully confirmed our previous predictions. The problem of the grand strategy has been clearly analyzed in the past. The fiasco of the DPP and Tsai Ing-wen is inevitable. Today, we are only reviewing from the perspective of policy-implementation, why did Tsai Ing-wen lose particularly badly?First of all, it is necessary for us to understand that although both the KMT and the DPP will only have limited success and can never be something big, the two parties are genetically different. The characteristics of the KMT are that they are good at fighting within the party, but don’t know shit to fight the opposition party. Even though they are beat shitless, they still talking in bureaucratic hierarchy when the doors are closed. In the KMT, there will be no happy ending for war-hero. When you are at your hype, everyone will kiss your ass and want to stay close to you. But once you encounter setbacks, everyone will stay away from you, draw a line from you, even step on your head and succumb to self-satisfaction, which is a hyper-combination of the rigid bureaucratic culture. The DPP is not the same. They are fully supportive when they are in trouble. As long as they can clear the blocks, they can do everything they need, and they can also let go of their grievances. The minute they won, they will grab the spoils of war shamelessly. The style is super ugly, and it is a culture of street bandits. After gaining full power in 2016, the DPP began to grab all the lucrative positions. First, the top-ranking authorities took the best roles into their pockets, and then desperately search for those second-class roles to pass to their “little brothers”. In this process of giving their little brothers, the DPP set their eyes on the position of the general manager of the Taipei Agricultural Products and Transportation Corporation ("Northern Agriculture") and took it as they wished. It can be said that this is the most stupid thing done since the DPP came to power, because the original general manager of Northern Agriculture was the current Mayor of Kaohsiung, who was already not in the politics arena for 16 years. If it is not for the DPP to get unemployed, Hanguo Yu was still selling vegetables at Norhtern Agriculture. For such a tiny role, the DPP lost the entire state, which should be the most regrettable thing for them. But then again, it is written in their genes, only such a stupid party would do such a stupid thing. However, at that time, no one thought that this trivial matter would trigger a follow-up effect like a landslide tsunami.After the DPP got all power, it launched a campaign against the KMT to destroy the KMT's party assets, so that they could not even pay for the party workers' wages, let alone the large-scale capital investment during the election. In the eyes of the DPP, their biggest enemy is the KMT. As long as the KMT can be completely ruined, then they can do anything they please, because they no longer have competitors, and the people no longer have a second choice. However, this move not only did not kill the KMT, but it cut off the rotten sores on the KMT. This can be said to be the second biggest stupid thing done since the DPP came into power. We have just said that the KMT was originally a rotten and rigid old machine. It is totally impossible for them to reform from within. This can be proved by the fact that the KMT’s performance after losing its political power isn’t improved any better. After the DPP’s polls fell all the way, the KMT as an opposition party also failed to show a corresponding rebound. Under the rigid and decayed mechanism of KMT, people like Hanguo Yu would never raise up. Didn’t he just withdraw from politics because he could not adapt to this mechanism? Now, the DPP’s comprehensive encirclement has caused the KMT Central Committee to lose the enormous resources that can be deployed in the past. The so-called big-shots who are surrounded by flattering spirits have now been left behind, creating for the future of Hanguo Yu. Just like right before the fall of every dynasties, there would be many many heroes raise from grassroots. If the DPP are wise, they should understand that a corrupt and rigid KMT is the box office guarantee that they can be governed for a long time. It is a pity that the DPP people are like a bunch of bandits entering the city. The moment they saw the money and beauty they were stunned and can’t think straight, therefore losing their own future. However, this did not attract enough attention at the time. After all, these two parties are all short-sighted and have limited success.On January 12, 2017, Hanguo Yu, who was unemployed after the role of the general manager of Northen Argriculture which was taken by the DPP, announced that he would run for the KMT chairman. In the poll on May 20, only 5.84% of the votes were obtained. In the fourth place, it can be seen as that he has no influence in the party at this time. On September 7, Hanguo Yu was sent to Kaohsiung as the party committee. On April 9, 2018, Hanguo Yu’s citizenship moved to Kaohsiung and announced his candidacy for Kaohsiung Mayor. On May 21, he was officially nominated by the KMT. Public opinion at the time generally believed that this was an election campaign that could not be won. This has nothing to do with whether Hanguo Yu has the ability, because public opinion believes that the DPP cannot lose Kaohsiung. How strong the supporting base of the DPP in Kaohsiung? The current Kaohsiung City was merged from the original Kaohsiung City and Kaohsiung County. The DPP has been in power for 20 years in Kaohsiung City and has been in power for 33 years in the former Kaohsiung County. In the 2014 Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Ju, nominated by the DPP, received more than 990,000 votes, and Yang Qiuxing won about 450,000 votes, with a gap of nearly 540,000 votes. Therefore, public opinion generally believes that if Hanguo Yu can narrow the gap to less than 200,000 in the Kaohsiung mayoral election, it can be counted as a victory. If you can narrow the gap to less than 100,000, it is definitely a big win. As for being elected, that is absolutely impossible.On March 7, 2018, Chen Qimai won the first election of the DPP and won the nominee for the Kaohsiung mayor. He was also considered to have no suspense to win the Kaohsiung Mayor election at the end of the year. On April 21st, the former Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Ju took up the post of Secretary-General of the Office of Tsai Ing-wen. At the same time, she also brought a group of confidants in the city to go north with her, madly grabbing all the lucrative roles. This is the third biggest stupid thing that the DPP has done since it took office. It not only caused a very bad social perception, but also led to the fact that the DPP did not have any talent available in Kaohsiung when they need it. Like the first and second big stupid things, the third big stupid thing is also determined by their bandit culture. Once the boss grabs the power, he has to quickly split the money among his younger brothers.In fact, at this time, the momentum of Hanguo Yu has gradually increased. This is mainly because his successor in the North Agriculture, Wu Yining, is a terrible reality and has suffered from all walks of life. After Wu Yining became the general manager of Northen Argriculture with the nepotism, she took the annual salary of NT$2.5 million (RMB 560,000 or USD 81,000), but she was extremely naive and incompetent in business management. She became the target of fierce attacks by the KMT and pro-blue media. The DPP and the pro-green media are desperate to boycott Wu Yinning. As a result, the focus of the firepower of both sides was concentrated on the company that was too small as selling vegetables and fruits. The way to exchange fire was to compare the former general manager of Hanguo Yu to the current general manager Wu Yining. Hanguo Yu got the media coverage he couldn’t hope for. Chen Qimai’s original strategy was to deal the election campaign coldly, because the green camp in Kaohsiung’s support is much larger than the blue camp. As long as there is not big change, it will naturally be able to be elected in the election campaign at the end of the year. The strategy was not substantially incorrect. All major leading side will adopt this strategy. Hanguo Yu’s support are largely behind, so it is necessary to take the initiative to get the media coverage, and to stimulate the public’s hot debate in order to have the possibility of a turnaround. Unexpectedly, Kaohsiung’s Chen Qimai was reluctant to acknowledge Hanguo Yu, and Taipei’s Wu Yining incident made Hanguo Yu the focus of media discussion. After comparison, people gradually acknowledged the four advantages of Hanguo Yu:The first is the ability to do business. For the past four years, a company on the edge of breaking even has achieved substantial profit growth, creating an unprecedented performance in the 40 years since its establishment.The second is to be close to the grassroots. During his tenure, Hanguo Yu has been working with bottom level employees for a long time. After the company earned a profit, he took out a large portion of it as a bonus to his employees. Even if the DPP senators strongly opposed it, he still insisted on doing it. So when he was leaving Northern Argriculture, people were crying their eyes out, and not willing to let him go. At the same time, Hanguo Yu has shown deep caring for the fruit farmers and vegetable farmers in the south, so that their agricultural products can be sold at a good price. This is the main reason why Hanguo Yu can win in Kaohsiung in the future, because the counties and cities in South Taiwan are all substantially agricultural. Previously, and the peasants have long been the DPP voters. In the past two years, due to the collapse of Taiwan's vegetable and fruit prices, farmers have been suffering. They naturally miss the good times brought by Hanguo Yu and hate the DPP, Tsai Ing-wen and Wu Yin-Ning for the hard-times they brought upon them.The third is incorruptness. In order to bring down Hanguo Yu, the DPP sent a large number of judicial prosecutors to go to Northen Argriculture to check the books, hoping to find evidence to Hanguo Yu’s corruption. The result was unexpected. The accountant who was sent to check the accounts actually became the die-hard fan of Hanguo Yu. He said: "If Hanguo Yu is going to run for election, I must vote for him. I am the person who checks his account. After checking the accounts for so many years, I have never seen such a clean book like Hanguo Yu. "Uncorruption, is the basic requirement of every practitioner, but it is hard to prove to the others. Anyone can boast good things about themselves, however the key is to convince other people to believe them. Just imagining the difficulty for Hanguo Yuto to convince Kaohsiung citizens to believe that he is absolutely incorrupt and honest. However, with the help of DPP, Hanguo Yu achieved it.The fourth is eloquence. The DPP and the pro-green media have been thoroughly attacking Hanguo Yu, and Hanguo Yu has also made various clarifications and counterattacks. He has left a large number of video footage on the media and the Internet. People have discovered that the eloquence of Hanguo Yu is so good. The response was so fast and spontaneous and quickly attracted the attention of a large number of fans. Especially amongst young people, they love to watch Hanguo Yu’s witty response against the Democratic Progressive Party. They madly retweet videos related to Hanguo Yu on the Internet, which made him the hottest political star in the whole Taiwan after 16 years away from the political arena.It is true that Hanguo Yu’s ability, incorruptibility and eloquence are all inherent advantages, but if Kaohsiung’s election campaign is dealt cold as Chen’s original plan, then these advantages of Hanguo Yu will not be known to many people. If the DPP can handle Wu Yinning in a clear and concise manner and let her leave Northern Argriculture as soon as possible, then the KMT attack will lose its focus, and the momentum of Hanguo Yu would not become so fast and soaring. It is a pity that the DPP has been fully defending Wu Yinning both privately and publicly. Later, even Tsai Ing-wen personally ordered the DPP to actively defend Wu Yinning. It is precisely because of the continued burning of the Wu Yinning incident that Hanguo Yu has become the focus of media attention, allowing people to realize that he has so many advantages. We mentioned in the earlier that the first biggest stupid thing after the Democratic Progressive Party came to power is the removal of Hanguo Yu’s position from the Northern Agricultural, and then defending Wu Yinning, the successor of Hanguo Yu, was The fourth biggest stupid thing they have done. The DPP actually got burnt two big times over a small fruit and vegetable company, its IQ is really incredible. Tracing back to the source, this is still determined by the genes of its bandit culture.The reason why Wu Yining caused such a big resentment in Taiwan is because her existence has caused a "relative deprivation" amongst young people and even middle-aged adults. Relative deprivation means the sense of deprivation that occurs when people compare themselves to certain standards or certain reference objects and find themselves at a disadvantage. This feeling can produce negative emotions and can be expressed as anger, resentment or dissatisfaction. In short, the relative deprivation is that I feel that I am no different from him, but he can get all kinds of resources without hard work, and I try my best but never get it. At the beginning, the DPP was fighting for relative deprivation and won the political power. The attacking target was the Lianshengwen, the privileged child born with a golden spoon, who climbed all the way until it was sent to the KMT nominated Taipei City. While in the blue camp support is much larger than the green camp in Taipei, Lian Shengwen would almost certainly been elected to Taipei. Thus, under the manipulation of the DPP, this was portrayed as a relative deprivation of the general young people in Taiwan. Eventually Lian Shengwen got defeated in the Taipei mayoral election, which in turn led to total defeat of the KMT in other counties and cities. However, it was not the DPP who defeated Lian Shengwen in 2014. Due to the lack of good candidates in the party, the DPP cooperated with Ke Wenzhe, a professor at the National Taiwan University Medical College. The DPP assisted Ke Wenzhe in defeating the KMT in Taipei, and Ke Wenzhe assisted the DPP in winning victory in other counties and cities. In the election of the county and mayor in 2014, the DPP won 13 of the 22 counties and cities in Taiwan, and the KMT was left only 6 seats. In the so-called "six capitals", which accounted for 70% of the population of Taiwan, the KMT only held the New Taipei City with a very small advantage of 20,000 votes. In Taipei City, it lost to the non-party Ke Wenzhe with a gap of more than 240,000 votes. Taichung, Tainan and Kaohsiung are all owned by the Democratic Progressive Party. If the fully-supported Taipei City Ke Wenzhe counts, the DPP is equal to winning the five out of six capitals, which laid the foundation for Tsai Ing-wen's victory in 2016. However, by 2018, how to deal with Ke Wenzhe's relationship has become the most difficult choice for the DPP.In the pattern of voters in Taipei, the blue base was originally larger than the green base. However, in the election of the county mayor in 2014, due to the incompetence of Ma Ying-jeou, a large number of voters in the blue camp were reluctant to vote. Due to the relative deprivation caused by Lian Shengwen, the middle voters favored Ke Wenzhe. In order to defeat the KMT, the Green Camp voters are even more supportive of Ke Wenzhe. However, when Ke Wenzhe became the mayor of Taipei, he actively responded to the "both strait belong to one family" proposal by the mainland in line with a pragmatic attitude, which triggered strong dissatisfaction of the deep green, but gained the favor of the middle voters and light blue. . In 2014, Lian Shengwen only got votes for the deep blue in the blue camp. Light blue is not willing to vote; Ke Wenzhe can get votes in Deep green, light green and the middle. However, by 2018, Ke Wenzhe's vote-source structure was displaced. In addition to the original light green and middle, it could take a cut into light blue, but it lost deep green. The vote-source structure of the Taipei mayor candidate Ding Shouzhong, which was nominated by the KMT, was deep blue and light blue. The light blue vote was previously voting for the KMT. However, in 2014, they refused to vote because of dissatisfaction with Lian Shengwen. And in 2018, Ke Wenzhe is taking a cut into them. As for the deep green, because of the dissatisfaction with Ke Wenzhe's response to the "both-strait belong to one family", they strongly urged the DPP to come up with their own candidates, which cornered Tsai Ing-wen into an unprecedented predicament.According to Tsai Ing-wen’s wishful thinking at this time, they shall continue to cooperate with Ke Wenzhe to assist him in re-electing the mayor of Taipei, and then defended the existing four capitals, and then urged veteran Su Shichang to take the New Taipei City. Then 2020 presidential election is in their pocket. But once the candidate is nominated, the drawbacks are obvious. First of all, the DPP’s nominated candidate has no chance of winning in Taipei, and there is no doubt that it will be the third place. This is simply humiliation. Secondly, once the DPP nominates its own candidates, it will eat up Ke Wenzhe's light green vote, which will lead the KMT to profit from it and win back to Taipei. This is the last thing DPP's want to see. Thirdly, if the Democratic Progressive Party causes Ke Wenzhe to lose the election, then Ke Wenzhe will definitely run for 2020, and he will overlap with Tsai Ing-wen in the light green votes. The result of the scattered green vote source will also benefit the KMT in 2020. If the DPP can't pull down Ke Wenzhe from re-election. That means Ke Wenzhe's success in re-election under the attack of the two major parties will also enhance his momentum. This is certainly not what the DPP is willing to see. Finally, Ke Wenzhe not only has many supporters in Taipei, but also has more supporters in other counties and cities, and are mainly young people. If the DPP and Ke Wenzhe breaks-up, Ke’s fans in other cities and counties can not support Ke Wenzhe in Taipei, but they can certainly use the ballots to get back at the DPP in other counties and cities. Therefore, based on all rational analysis, Tsai Ing-wen can't nominate a candidate in Taipei City anyhow, but she was forced to nominate Yao Wenzhi as the candidate for the Mayor of Taipei for the Democratic Progressive Party on May 30. This is the fifth big stupid thing since they took office, unlike the previous four biggest stupid things, this big stupidity was not determined by the genes of its bandit culture, but by the "Li Zicheng dilemma." Due to the stubbornness on the cross-strait issue, Taiwan's economy has rapidly declined, which in turn led to a rapid decline in Tsai Ing-wen's public support. So she can only move closer to the deep green base and listen to their opinions.The Democratic Progressive Party nominating its own candidate, after breaking with Ke Wenzhe, caused strong dissatisfaction with Taiwan’s Ke’s fan base. In addition to attacking the DPP in Taipei, they also looked for other forces in the counties and cities to attack the DPP. The most obvious benefit of the Ke fans effect spillover is Hanguo Yu, because Hanguo Yu and Ke Wenzhe have a very good friendship. Ke Wenzhe appreciated the performance of Hanguo Yu in Northern Argriculture. After the Yu’s removal by DPP, Ke Wenzhe intends to take Hanguo Yu into the municiple team. For this reason, he brought his wife to Hanguo Yu’s home in Yunlin to have dinner with Hanguo Yu couple. Yu also agreed to join the Ke Wenzhe team. After the Democratic Progressive Party’s Taipei City Councillors strongly opposing it, they had to give up. Otherwise, Hanguo Yu will not come out to run for Kaohsiung Mayor this year, but should stay in the Taipei City Government to help on Ke Wenzhe election. It is because of this encounter, Hanguo Yu is very much touched. In an interview, he said that he was very gracious that Ke Wenzhe’s acknowledgement of him. Because although he has always been a member of the KMT, in the 16 years of fading out of politics, no one in the KMT come to acknowledge him. Only Ke Wenzhe has taken him as a important role and often exchanges views on the municipal matters. In this way, just as the enthusiasm of Wu Yining's incident gradually faded, the effect of Ke and Green's breakup continued again, making Hanguo Yu still in the focus of media attention. People gradually discovered that the charm of Hanguo Yu is more than that of Ke Wenzhe. The number of Hanguo fans has soared, even surpassing Ke Wenzhe, and Yao (author) himself began to pay serious attention to Hanguo Yu at this time.Due to some encounter of ten years ago, Yao has seriously studied the history of Taiwan and has some more or less friendship with many Taiwanese political figures and journalists. Although attention has long been lost on this island, the things happening in there I am somewhat familiar with. In the past ten years, except for Ke Wenzhe, who is a new face, all other political figures have been studied ten years ago. So when Hanguo Yu suddenly became popular, I was very surprised. Who is this person? How did Taiwan have this character? Why do I know nothing of this guy? A review of the data revealed that he had faded out of politics in 2001. So, I dug out all the data around him for the past year, it did not take me long to realise that this dude will be somebody in the future. Today, Hanguo Yu has become famous all over the place. Everyone is wondering what magical power this baldy has. Why can he flip Kaohsiung in such a short period of time? But I think that there are very few people who truly grasped the reason behind it, even the most intimate colleagues around Hanguo Yu will not know. Today, I will make the answer to the public, it is because Hanguo Yu has thoroughly studied "Mao Xuan"(Selection of Chairman Mao’s Publishing), I am 100% sure of it. Once you thoroughly study the book of a writer, your words and demeanor would be deeply influenced by it. Of course, the average joe can't see it. It is easy to see the traces of people who are familiar with the writer. In my opinion, there are two politicians in Taiwan who have read "Mao Xuan", one is Ke Wenzhe and the other is Hanguo Yu. Perhaps this is one of the reasons why they cherish each other. Perhaps Ke Wenzhe did not study it thoroughtly as Yu, but Hanguo Yu has definitely studied it from beginning to end. Many of his words and moves, especially regarding the mass movement, are definitely learned from Mao Xuan. So, what is it called a “dimensional reduction strike”? This is called a “dimensional reduction strike”! When other politicians in Taiwan were still only fighting in the Chamber of Deputies, Hanguo Yu had closed the door for 16 years, and he thoroughtly studied books such as Mao Xuan. The depth of his thoughts and the level of his thinking were unmatched to his peers, therefore the first fight of his has such a huge influence.All in all, when the DPP decided to nominate their candidate on May 30, it had already completed the five stupid things that led to its future defeat. Strategically, they were already doomed. So Yao predicted Tsai Ing-wen’s defeat in my June 13 article, we just need to quietly watch how she collapsed.In May, Hanguo Yu said that the current two weakness in Kaohsiung City are “old and poor”. In this regard, Chen Qimai was very angry. He officially opened a press conference to refute Hanguo Yu. He demanded an "outsider" as Yu not to jinx Kaohsuing, and the pro-green media was attacking Yu 24/7.When it was decided to focus on the topics of "old and poor", there was also a high degree of disagreement within the Hanguo Yu team. Many of the team members believe that this may hurt the hearts of Kaohsiung people, which is not conducive to the election, but Hanguo Yu insists on this topic, and the data proves that during the seven years from 2010 to 2016, the number of young people aged 25 to 34 decreased by more than 80,000, and the number of elderly people over 60 years old increased by 110,000. This is “old”; Kaohsiung’s youth unemployment rate is high, top of the six capitals, the average monthly salary is at the bottom of the six, only 60% of the Hsinchu City. In addition, Kaohsiung City also bears up to nearly 300 billion Taiwan dollars in debt, which is “poor”; "old and poor" is not exaggerated. Correspondingly, the campaign slogan proposed by Hanguo Yu is "things can be sold to the outside, the people can come in, Kaohsiung makes a fortune."As the “old and poor” issue continued to ferment, the Hanguo Yu’s poll began to climb gradually, from the initial 20% behind Chen Qimai’s, and only 5% behind in August, forcing Chen Qimai to deal with him actively. He must open fire with Hanguo. After the Ke-Green breakup issue in Taipei gradually cooled down, the focus of the entire Taiwan campaign began to gather in Kaohsiung.On August 23, due to the southern Taiwan rainstorm, Kaohsiung becomes a flooded city, crashing the DPP's ballot. It manifests in four aspects: First, Chen Ju long boasted her own water management achievements, the rainstorm has revealed it is a lie. Second, there were more than 5,000 shocking large potholes on the Kaohsiung roads after the water faded, indicating that there must be a lot of corruption in the construction of the projects. Thirdly, during the reign of Chen Ju, many beautiful buildings were built and Kaohsiung was made into a livable city for leisure. Therefore, many people are reluctant to accept the “old and poor” which Hanguo Yu said. But now the roads filled with potholes are significantly shaking the confidence of the Kaohsiung people and made them facing the reality and pound upon the past. Fourth, after Chen Ju left such a big mess, she went to Taipei to be a big shot official. Not only did she go, but also took away a lot of people from the municiple team, which made the people feel extremely annoyed. Chen Qimai’s initial campaign strategy was Chen Ju’s best “successor”. With Chen Ju’s image has now collapsed. As his successor, Chen Qimai’s position is very difficult. Just imagine it.On September 11, the DPP’s "Zhang Tianqin Incident" broke out, also known as the "East Factory Incident." (Translator: Like a KGB unit in the Ming dynasty.) After Tsai Ing-wen took office, she established the "Promotion of Transition Justice Committee" (referred to as "Promotion of Transfer"). The deputy chairman Zhang Tianqin proposed at an internal meeting that he should make good use of the committee to fuck the KMT. Declared that "we were originally a South Factory, and now we have changed to a West Factory, and later upgraded to an East Factory." Although everyone with a clear mind knows the purpose of setting up such a committee. Its slogan is, after all, a "transitional justice". Now its deputy chairman has openly chosen to be a thug and even proud to act as an East Factory. People can't bear it, so some insiders took the initiative to record and then broke the news to the media, causing an uproar. Although Zhang Tianqin has resigned from office on the next day, the supervisor has repeatedly apologized, but this still does not calm the anger of the people. As a result, the folks began to circulate a slogan called "1124 Finishing East Factory" (November 24, the polling day). Soon after, the folks began to spread a saying, saying that the largest party in Taiwan is now neither the KMT nor the DPP, but "hate the DPP party." That is to say, although the people still have a limited good impression on the KMT, they all strongly hate the DPP.At the same time, Hanguo Yu continued the "old and poor" topics and stressed on the "Northern drift" issue, saying that Kaohsiung was very prosperous before, everyone went to Kaohsiung to find a job, but now Kaohsiung is poor, and Kaohsiung's children can only drift north to find a job. As a result, Hanguo Yu came up with a series of publicity ads, the themes are nothing but two, one is in Kaohsiung's parents looking forward to children in North Taiwan to return home, the other is the struggle North Taiwan young people have to go through to return to their parents. These advertisements were widely circulated on the Internet and set off a wave of climax around the Mid-Autumn Festival on September 24. From this time on, I think that Hanguo Yu has already surpassed Chen Qimai, and as long as Hanguo Yu does not make major mistakes, this gap will only widen, although I myself feel that the "Northern drift" is a bit of a stretch. Taiwan is a very small island. I just measured it on the map. The distance between Kaohsiung and Taipei is only about 290 kilometers. The straight line distance from Shanghai to Nanjing is about 270 kilometers. The two are similar. So to any Shanghainese people, will you call your Nanjing trip is going north? Isn't this a matter of after-dinner walk?In response to the "Northern drifting issue" by Hanguo Yu, Chen Qimai also filmed the advertisement of "Believing in Kaohsiung". The content of the advertisement is this: a group of Kaohsiung people who are working in Taipei sit together, talk about Kaohsiung's good, talk about Kaohsiung's warmth, talk about their feelings for Kaohsiung, and talk about Kaohsiung's pride. A girl who has left Kaohsiung for more than 15 years said: "I left Kaohsiung because of the working environment. I always wanted to go home after a certain age. I really want to go home. My citizenship is still in Kaohsiung. A boy who left Kaohsiung for seven or eight years said, "In Taipei, it is survival, in the south, it is life." Another girl said: " I am better to improve myself, just to go back." The girl of 15 years said: "It is my biggest wish to be able to go back find a career with a future." Then everyone said with a sigh of relief: "I think it is very proud that Kaohsiung people speak out." "I think that I am a Kaohsiung person. I am very proud." The final picture slowly fades into Chen Qimai, who is quietly sitting and listening. The subtitles are labeled "Kaohsiung's good, we know" and "believe in Kaohsiung."In all honesty, this advertisement is indeed very touching, but as soon as I saw this advertisement, I knew that Chen Qimai’s election campaign would be undoubtedly defeated. Because he was out of tricks, he could not find any strategy or direction to deal with Hanguo Yu. First of all, if you follow other person’s topics, it is already in a disadvantage, not to mention that you are not playing at all. We look at the dialogues in the advertisements. You said, "Because the work environment is gone, I really want to go home." Then the question comes up, why can't Kaohsiung give you a good working environment? You said: "In Taipei, it is survival, in the south, it is life." Then the question comes up again, why can't you live and survive in Kaohsiung? You said: "I am better to improve myself, just to go back." Then the question comes up, why should we improve ourselves to be better to return to Kaohsiung, but can't go back now? You said: "It is my biggest wish to be able to go back to development." Then the question is coming, why can't we go back to development now? There is only one answer to these questions. That is because Kaohsiung’s economy is dying and it is impossible to provide relatively high-paying job opportunities. Therefore, you have to find these jobs in Taipei. Doesn’t this prove that Hanguo Yu’s “poor” topic? Young people can't work in Kaohsiung, they can only drift to Taipei. Doesn't this prove that Hanguo Yu’s "old" topic? Therefore, on the one hand, Chen Qimai angrily criticized the "old and poor" that Hanguo Yu said, but he had been actively doing advertising to prove that "the old and the poor" that Hanguo Yu said, how can he not lose? What? Later, Chen Qimai changed his campaign slogan from "justice and warmth" to "economical mayor", saying that he is more capable than Hanguo Yu to boost Kaohsiung's economy, but people can't help thinking, the DPP was always in power in the past, why didn't you do it if you have a way?On October 4, under the operation of Wang Jinping, Xiao Hanjun, chairman of the Kaohsiung City Farmers Association, expressed his support for Hanguo Yu. Prior to this, although the Hanguo Yu’s support on the Internet was very high, the DPP dismissed that those were “empty air votes”, not Kaohsiung’s locals, and could not vote in Kaohsiung. He also said that Hanguo Yu is only an air force, there is no army, and it will certainly be lost in the future. With the support of Xiao Hanjun, Hanguo Yu has the first established ground support. However, the DPP argued that Xiao Hanjun was always pro-KMT, it doesn’t mean anything if he expressed his support for Hanguo Yu. But it didn't take long for many of the originally deep green DPP hardcore supporters to support Hanguo Yu. As a result, the DPP smeared these personalities on the one hand, and said that these people have no influence on the other hand. In the end, no matter how unfavourable the situation is, the DPP does not admit their wrongs. They never understand, under the general trend of "disliking the DPP party", if you admit you were wrong all along, you might not generate that much hate. The more you don’t admit to it, the more people want to tear down your fake excuses all together.On October 14, Chen Qimai held a grand campaign in Fengshan, claiming that 30,000 people participated, and the scene was hot. Subsequently, Wang Jinping and Xiao Hanjun held three major campaigns for Hanguo Yu, which were in Fengshan on October 26, Qishan on November 8, and Gangshan on November 14. They were known as “Three mountain wars”. Just in Fengshan, the scene of the Hanguo Yu camp was even more popular than Chen’s. There were 50,000 people on the scene, and many people left early because they couldn’t stand the squeeze. Fengshan's campaign has debunked the DPP's so-called “no ground support, only the empty air vote” lies, and made the entire blue camp morale. In contrast, the Green Camp was frightened and injected all the resources for the election into Kaohsiung. So every subsequent campaign has become comparison of number of people. No party is willing to lose in number. This may be the desperate struggle of the DPP, because the DPP cannot lose Kaohsiung. Once Kaohsiung falls, it will not only shake the big-time poll base that has been in power for 20 or 30 years, but more importantly, the DPP dares not to say it, there must be a lot of illegal and fraudulent things under long-term governance. In the future, if Hanguo Yu does a thorough investigation, I do not know how many people will be imprisoned. However, from a more rational point of view, the DPP cannot save Kaohsiung because Kaohsiung simply cannot be saved at this point. The DPP’s desperation is not only not helping, but it will cause three more serious counter-effects:First, the supporters of Hanguo Yu are all spontaneously supported by themselves, and Chen Qimai's supporters all rely on party machines to mobilize. Hanguo Yu with its own high popularity, often go to other counties and cities to help polls on other KMT members, Chen Qimai often relies on various resources to help him. So there is a new saying amongst the people "Hanguo Yu - the person to save the whole party. Chen Qimai – the whole party to save the person." Even though Chen Qimai's ability is not bad, it has been shaped into an incompetent image.Second, under the general trend of "disliking the DPP party," any effort by the DPP is futile. The more the DPP is struggling, and the more it provokes the public's resentment. Many middle-ranking voters really don't like the KMT, but they hated the DPP more for not admitting to their wrongs. The reason why they voted for the KMT is really not hoping that the KMT will win, but that the DPP will not lose.Third, according to Tsai Ing-wen’s original plan, DPP was going to cooperated with Ke Wenzhe in Taipei City, and Su Zhenchang taking over Xinbei City, so that the DPP’s reign could be expanded from the original four to the five Capitals, and the KMT wins zero capital out of all six. Then KMT will be completely out of game in 2020 presidential election. However, with the forced nomination of candidate at the end of May, the result of Ke-Green's breakup made it impossible for Su Shichang to win the election in New Taipei City. So Tsai Ing-wen retreated her defense line to Taichung and declared that she would "battle in mid-Taiwan." Because Taiwan’s electorate structure is, the more north you go the bluer it gets, and the more south you go the greener it gets. As long as it can win in Taichung. Taoyuan, Tainan and Kaohsiung will certainly not have much problems. So that they can remain the four capitals from 2014, to the DPP the war is not lost. But to anyone’s surprise, Kaohsiung, which should have been the headquarter of DPP, actually became the front line of the battleground. The result of the DPP’s full efforts to rescue Kaohsiung has left gaps in their defensive lines in all the counties and cities that were evenly matched or even led slightly. It is precisely because the DPP has injected all resources to Kaohsiung, that the KMT has also turned over in many counties and cities that they had no hope for. This is the root cause of the defeat of Tsai Ing-wen in the mid-term election.In 2014, the DPP had four capitals out of six, plus Ke Wenzhe of Taipei City, which was fully supported by them, and could be counted as five capitals. The KMT only had one capital in Xinbei City. By 2018, the DPP has only two seats in Taoyuan City and Tainan City. The KMT has three seats in New Taipei City, Taichung City and Kaohsiung City. Taipei City only lost to Ke Wenzhe with a short of 3,000 votes. . In terms of the other 16 counties and cities, the DPP has 9 seats in 2014 and only 4 seats in 2018. The KMT had only five seats in 2014 and rose to 12 seats in 2018. As shown below:After the election of the county and mayor in 2018, Tsai Ing-wen and Chen Ju were completely annihilated in the top-level political figures of the DPP, and Lai Qingde was at least half destroyed. Now the bench can still take over, perhaps only Taoyuan Mayor Zheng Wencan and Tainan Mayor Huang Weizhe, especially Zheng Wencan is the most likely, but if he wants to participate in 2020, there is no possibility of winning. Ke Wenzhe of Taipei City only beat Ding Shouzhong of the Kuomintang with a slight advantage. As he won so hardly , he probably does not dare to run for 2020. The hero of the KMT’s victory this time is undoubtedly the Hanguo Yu, but since he has just captured the deep green based Kaohsiung, he promised to lead the Kaohsiung people to fight for the economy, and should not prepare for the 2020 election next year. Therefore, the 2020 KMT nominated candidates should still be Zhu Lilun or Wu Dunyi, and they are indeed very likely to win, but everyone knows that this time KMT’s landslide winning was brought by Hanguo Yu. Regardless of whether he can be the chairman, he will be the most authoritative figure in the Kuomintang, and thus will be the one who decides the future direction of Taiwan.The reason why Hanguo Yu can win such extensive and enthusiastic support in the deep green Kaohsiung is because he has brought hope to the Kaohsiung people and promised that they will be able to live a good life and be young and rich. But how can this be done? Hanguo Yu said, "Things are sold to the outside, people can come in, Kaohsiung makes a fortune." So where are things selling to? Where do people come from? The answer is pretty obvious. Hanguo Yu said that the future Kaohsiung is going to be “100 in economics, 0 in politics, and fullly charged to develop economy.” What is 0% in politics? The meaning is crystal clear. Many mainlanders say that the KMT has won again, and we have to give Taiwan money again. However, I feel that it is worthwhile to spend this money, because Hanguo Yu wants to gain a foothold in Kaohsiung. It must rely on the mainland economically, selling things from Kaohsiung to the mainland and attracting people from mainland China to Kaohsiung. The biggest advantage of this is that the United States can no longer threaten and deceive us by manipulating the Taiwan issue. The Taiwan Strait will usher in peace for a long time, so that we can sweep away a big risk in this turbulent global environment. So that the economy can be better developed. Under this grand strategy, it is quite worthwhile to spend some money on that small island. Speaking from the point of our love and culture, they share, after all, the same flesh, blood and culture with us. In terms of sheer economics, buying Taiwan is much more cost-effective than attacking Taiwan.

From the standpoint of the Presidential Election, Asian Americans play a very small role largely because of where they are located. In the Asian American clusters of California and New York, not only is the Asian American vote not important, no one’s vote is particularly important. That said in 2016, Nevada and Virginia are shaping up to be important swing states where Asian Americans can make a significant impact.[1][1][1][1]Where Asian Americans do have a significant amount of pull and influence is the less discussed Congressional races. According to APIAVote, 1 in 4 congressional districts have an Asian American population over 5% which could result in a meaningful swing. [2][2][2][2]Asian Americans in Nevada bailed out Harry Reid over Sharron Angle in a hotly contested 2010 election where Harry Reid was largely assumed to lose. Asian Americans also knocked out long term incumbent Bill Jefferson in favor of Republican Joseph Cao in the 2008 2nd congressional district in Louisiana. For the 2016 election, Asian Americans will also play an influential role in the 2016 17th congressional district in California (aka the Silicon Valley district) battle between Ro Khanna and Mike Honda, both politicians of Asian American descent.Part of the reason why Asian Americans have emerged as a criteria bloc is because there are some political groups like the 80–20 Initiative which identifies criteria battles where the Asian American vote can make a critical swing and attempts to garner 80% of the Asian American vote for a certain cause.The most significant example of a specific party catering to Asian Americans would be Obama’s nomination of several Asian Americans to high level political positions. A record number of Asian Americans were nominated to cabinet level positions, named to the Senior White House Staff, and appointed to Judicial positions. [3][3][3][3] [4][4][4][4]Finally in 2009, Obama declared May as Asian American and Pacific Island Heritage Month. He releases an annual proclamation discussing the role of Asian Americans in the larger context of Americans.[5][5][5][5]Footnotes[1] Why AAPI Voters[1] Why AAPI Voters[1] Why AAPI Voters[1] Why AAPI Voters[2] Why AAPI Voters[2] Why AAPI Voters[2] Why AAPI Voters[2] Why AAPI Voters[3] 80-20 Initiative[3] 80-20 Initiative[3] 80-20 Initiative[3] 80-20 Initiative[4] Obama on Asian American Issues[4] Obama on Asian American Issues[4] Obama on Asian American Issues[4] Obama on Asian American Issues[5] https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CFR-2010-title3-vol1/pdf/CFR-2010-title3-vol1-proc8369.pdf[5] https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CFR-2010-title3-vol1/pdf/CFR-2010-title3-vol1-proc8369.pdf[5] https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CFR-2010-title3-vol1/pdf/CFR-2010-title3-vol1-proc8369.pdf[5] https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CFR-2010-title3-vol1/pdf/CFR-2010-title3-vol1-proc8369.pdf

A war between the world's largest Democracy and the world's largest Communist state may not seem likely to the casual observer. But not only is it possible, but it's also happened before. Only things were very different back then.China was facing an economic collapse in the early 1960s in the years following the Great Leap Forward. The country was struggling to feed its people, let alone support an all-out war. India, on the other hand, was on an economic upturn. Militarily, however, India was unprepared and could only field 14,000 troops, compared to China's exhaustive manpower.In 1962, Chinese Communist leader Mao Zedong invaded India for granting asylum to the Dalai Lama and not supporting the Chinese occupation of Tibet (Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru was an outspoken critic of the occupation). The Chinese won the harsh mountain war, fought without Navies or Air Forces, at 14,000 feet.Mao later told Sri Lankan and Swedish delegations the war was essential to teach India a lesson.Potential causes of a new Sino-Indian WarThe 1962 war only lasted a month, resulting in slight border changes and a now-ongoing dispute on just where the border is — namely in two areas called Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh, which could re-spark a conflict today. But any border disputes could turn the mountainous region hot. The most recent standoff in August 2017 was about an obscure plateau in the Himalayan Doklam Plateau region, which borders India, China, and Bhutan. India supports Bhutan's claim to the area, while both major powers have scores of troops in the region.The spark for that standoff is an unfinished road from China.China also supports India's arch-rival Pakistan, turning any conflict into a potential two-front war. But India doesn't take it all laying down. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi confronted China's assertiveness from his first day in office – when he invited the exiled Tibetan government to his swearing-in ceremony.The two countries clashed along their border several times, including one incident over Tibet in 1967 and another near miss 1987 over Arunachal. There were also smaller incidents in 2013 and 2014 in Ladakh, where India has since loaded the area with infantry, tanks, and reserves to be prepared for any potential aggression from China.Chinese People's Liberation Army during the Moscow Victory Day Parade.But the very likely spark that could drive the two Asian giants to war could come from a clash over resources. In this case, it wouldn't be over oil, it would be over water. Both countries have an eye on the fresh water and hydroelectric power from the Tsangpo–Brahmaputra River.Water is not the only resource in question, though. Earlier in 2016, China prevented India's membership in the Nuclear Suppliers Group, which controls the trade of nuclear material and tech.Technology and NumbersChina and India are now economic powerhouses, 2nd and 7th (respectively) in world GDP rankings. Militarily, India is number four on the GlobalFirepower rankings and boasts the largest standing volunteer army at 1.13 million troops with 2.1 million in reserve. Ranked number three on the same scale, China's armed forces have 2.3 million active troops with another 2.3 million in reserve.Indian Army Soldiers of the Madras Regiment.China's technology is superior to India's, but not by much. The Chinese air forces also vastly outnumber India's somewhat antiquated air force. The Chinese also have a homegrown version of the F-35, which can outmatch India's 50-year-old MiG-21s. The Chinese J-20 is currently the best best for Chinese air superiority if it's operational in time for such a conflict.India is working with Russia on developing a 5th-generation Sukhoi fighter with capabilities similar to the American F-22. But the Indian air force has been outnumbered and outclassed on many occasions and still came up with a win. Training and experience count for a lot. More on that in a minute.India's Navy matches China's with two aircraft carrier groups but China still edges India in technological capability — barely. China also dwarfs India's tank and submarine corps, with five times as many of each. China also has twice as many warships and military aircraft.The STOBOR Carrier, INS Vikramaditya.India's advantage is that, despite China's superiority in the merchant marine, its sea lanes come very close to Indian waters. This would force the Chinese to divert ships used for a blockade to protect their shipping. This is why both countries invest in developing submarines and anti-sub technology.No matter what, the air and sea war would be a slugfest. Even so, the primary conflict would likely be between two land armies. Or three if Pakistan decides to take advantage of the situation.Joota on the groundThe problem with the major border disputes is that the border in question is high in the Himalayas, making quick thrusts and land grabs unlikely. A large disparity in ground troops between the opposing forces will decide who advances. China may have the manpower to make taking the disputed provinces possible.A significant difference in India's favor is that its troops are battle-hardened and have a long tradition of fighting to defend India's borders. The Indian Army has been fighting Pakistan, terrorism, and a host of insurgencies for decades. Its last war ended in 1999, and it has employed significant paramilitary and special operations forces ever since.The Chinese haven't seen real fighting since the 1979 war with Vietnam. That war lasted just shy of four weeks, with each side claiming victory. The Chinese wanted to punish Vietnam for being in the Soviet sphere while proving to the world the USSR could not protect its allies. It didn't work. The Vietnamese repelled the Chinese People's Liberation Army using only border militias.A Vietnamese military officer standing on the wreckage of a destroyed Chinese tank in Cao Bang during the Sino-Vietnamese War.The truth is, the Chinese PLA, for all its growth and advances in technology, has not truly been tested since the Korean War. China's biggest equalizer is its ballistic missile force, capable of hitting well inside India.China's biggest advantage is its economy. If it suffers no sanctions as a result of an invasion, it could sustain a protracted war much longer than India. In this instance, India's best hope is to strangle Chinese shipping using its sizable submarine force. India sits with its boot on the neck of the Chinese economy.If it came to a nuclear exchange, India would not fare well. China has a stockpile of ballistic missiles and with major Indian cities so close to the Chinese border, it doesn't even need longer-ranged weapons to annihilate major urban centers. Conversely, India has few of these and primary targets in China are much further away. Luckily, both countries have a "no first use" policy, making a nuclear exchange unlikely.How it plays outIndia invading China is highly unlikely. The Indian Army would not have the ground force necessary to drive through the Himalayas and sustain such a push.This war would be fought with light infantry, mountain troops, and light armor. China has the advantage in numbers, but India has experienced veteran soldiers. Even aircraft would have trouble fighting in these mountains, but the Indian Army has developed specialized attack helicopters just for this purpose: the HAL Druv and HAL Light Attack helicopters.China has very few airfields in the area, which would limit its ability to provide air cover, whereas India's Air Force maintains considerable assets in the area.Indian Army HAL Light Combat Helicopter.India also has multiple layers of anti-air and anti-missile defense and is developing more. China would have to get the bulk of its ground forces across the Himalayas as fast as possible, or the war would grind to a halt.Any halt to the Chinese advance would be a de facto win for India. China would have to completely capture the disputed territories and move into India to be able to claim victory. China's only real chance to progress into the subcontinent is to perform an Inchon Landing-style maneuver from the sea, but that would require going through India's submarine force unopposed.Frankly, no matter what the provocation might be, these two countries are better off being friends. Growing economies and technological capabilities serve only to bolster the rest of the world's growth. Any conflict between the two would be explosive and bloody, requiring a lot of manpower and ending with a massive loss of life and little to show for it. The geography and population density between the two countries makes both of them unconquerable.Footnotes:Indian Armed Forces - WikipediaSino-Indian War - WikipediaWhy the Chinese military is only a paper dragon.Why a War Between China and India Is Not UnthinkableChina should stop ratcheting up 1962, remember 1967 Nathu La battleHow India stacks up against China, and why China can't win despite its military SuperiorityChina vs India | Comparison military strength