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The ad buys that you are referencing is an attempt to hold AZ, IA, and FL which are all vulnerable.Look if you subtract PA (20) and Michigan (16), from Trump’s Electoral Total (without those pesky faithless Electors), you get exactly 270 Electoral College votes which is a victory. I do not think Trump is conceding either PA or WI but I think MI is outside of his list of winnable states (as of 8/10/2020).The problem with conceding MI is that there is no room for error. Despite losing the popular vote and winning 306 Electoral votes and a total of 30 states plus ME-2 in 2016, Trump can win in 2020 unless a combination of 37 Electoral votes swings to the Democratic candidate.Put another way if Trump loses FL (29) , IA (6), and AZ (11): Joe Biden could spot Trump his 3 closest states in 2016 (PA, WI, and MI) and still end up winning the White House*.*278–260 or 279–259 depending how ME-2 turns out

There are conflicting polls, but since it’s only the Electoral Vote that matters, let’s look at it on a State-by-State basis.Let’s start with the 2016 results.Biden is ahead in Pennsylvania and Michigan, so let’s give those to him. Trump still wins 270 to 268.In 2016, in Maine, Trump won one electoral vote and Hillary won 3. (They don’t use “winner take all”). Let’s assume Biden wins all 4. It’s a 269 tie and the election is decided by the House of Representatives. Trump wins because it’s one vote per State and there are more Republican states.Now let’s give that 1 Maine vote back to Trump.Biden wins Wisconsin (in addition to PA and MI) where Democrats won a big election about a month ago. Biden wins 278 to 260.Biden is also ahead in Florida and Arizona. If he wins all five tossup states mentioned, he wins 318 to 220.North Carolina may also be in play. That’s 15 electoral votes.But it’s five months to Election Day. Five months ago, there was no Coronavirus in the U.S. , there were no massive BLM demonstrations and a recession seemed impossible. See how fast things can change?In my personal opinion, if Trump disappeared until the debates and completely stopped tweeting, he might win the election.But since he won’t and every time he tweets or opens his mouth he does more damage to himself, I think he’s toast.

I’ll start with the safe states. The set-in-stone states, the ones that will never flip unless their candidate literally shoots someone on live TV.As you can see, the Democrats have far more votes set in stone, with most of New England, the west coast, and some of the smaller eastern states.The Republicans have mostly the Midwest and the South, where the population is predominantly Republican.Now for the states that are very likely to go either way, and will swing in a landslide and nothing else.I believe that Biden, who is more favorable than Hillary, will carry every state she did, as seen above. Now— some people may think that Georgia and Texas, and even Iowa are swing states.How do I say this…? You’re an idiot.These states just aren’t ready to flip. I think Iowa is a long way away, as is NC, but Texas and Georgia will be swing states next election, in the same position as Florida right now.And now, for the swing states, the election deciders, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, and that one district in Nebraska.Whew. Before angry Republicans mob me, I have to say, the poll leads are just too much for me to not flip AZ, WI, PA, and MI. 4.6, 7.5, 4.5, and 6.6 respectively. The only one I could feasibly see flipping is Pennsylvania, and that would not even put Trump on top. Michigan is also excruciatingly close, but I don’t think that Michigan is more likely to flip red than Florida is to go blue (2.7 for Biden).A few alternate scenarios I can play out in my mind include Florida going blue, which would be just short of a landslide for Biden. I can also see Arizona and/or Pennsylvania going red, though I personally think the former is more likely.Most Likely IMO: My scenario (duh)Second: Florida goes blue and Biden wins 319–219Third: Pennsylvania and Arizona stay red and Trump gets re-elected, 259–279Fourth: Arizona stays red and Trump wins Nebraska, still loses 278–260Fifth: Pennsylvania goes red but Biden wins by 2, 270–268But yeah, this is my final prediction.