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Well It’s crisis time…*Sad part-Targaryen noisesAnyways so Robert is gonna need a new hand, and he’d go for Ned…Would he agree?Once they reconcile over Lyanna’s death probably yeah.Now there’s a few changes that are gonna pop up right away.First up is that Lysa is gonna get remarried. Since Jon Arryn is dead, and Lysa is just 16.Now Jaime/Lysa at this point would be fun, but no, we need to keep this realistic. There’s two real possibilities:Edwyn FreySer Tybolt CrakehallBoth are heirs to fairly powerful houses at this point. I guess there’s also the outside chance that Bobby B decides he wants to marry Lysa since it’d make him Ned’s brother in law, but probably not. Stannis and Tytos Brax are dark horse candidates I suppose as well.I’m gonna say that Hoster would choose Tybolt Crakehall because the reasons for Edwyn falls apart if either:A) Walder really was truly late and uncommitted until he Trident and Hoster doesn’t want to marry Lysa off to Edwyn then.B) If I’m writing about Walder being a more genuine supporter of the Rebels then there’s nothing to worry about here.So given Hoster’s habits of using external marriages to win alliances, I’d say Tybolt Crakehall is much more likely. Also, we really don’t need Lysa having to deal with Black Walder.With Tybolt, Lysa had a reasonably happy marriage, and several children, Robert (born 285), Tywald (born 286), Leila (born 289), Beth (born 291), Damon (born 294), and Lanna (born 296). And yeah, I’m assuming the fertility problems were a bit more of Jon Arryn’s fault.Lysa also likely isn’t as insane as before, and either she doesn’t put on weight like before, or if she still does, it’s fine since it just makes her look a bit more like a Crakehall in truth…Next order of business: Vale successionThe Vale’s line of succession.Now with Jon Arryn dead, there’s actually two possibilities for who inherits the Vale.Denys Arryn’s infant son.Harry the Heir.No we don’t know much of anything about Denys Arryn’s son, other than he was born around this time, and he along with his mother died shortly after Jon Arryn died.But at the same time, with the removal of Jon Arryn and Sweetrobin (the most important character!!!) we are owed two lives, which we’re gonna use on this mystery daughter of Alys Arryn (who Imma call Sharra Waynewood) and their mystery son who we’ll call Jasper.Why?Fuck Harry the Heir, that’s why.Now from here, we just get to fill in the blanks. I’m gonna say it’s likely Ned takes on Jasper as a ward, which facilitates that Tully/Arryn alliance that was supposed to be made with Lysa marrying Jon Arryn.Our next order of business is with Benjen.Given that Ned is living in King’s Landing as Hand, and the only other Stark around at this point outside of Benjen is a infant Robb, Benjen is gonna need to stick around and hold Winterfell.Now Ned may not be the biggest political mega-brain out there, but his options are being aiding by a lack of Northern options save for Jonelle Cerwyn (Starks only marry Cerwyns when they’re trying to secure Cerwyn loyalty in a succession dispute), and Dacey Mormont, a junior line member of the least important house in the North (politically).So Ned is gonna probably turn southwards for Benjen’s marriage.There’s no known Western options that really stand out, or confirmed Vale options, so most likely Ned does try to pull his best Jon Arryn move and build alliances with the Reach using Benjen’s Hand. There’s a few possibilities, like Mathis Rowan’s mystery daughters, Janna Tyrell, Rhea Florent, etc;.Bur if I had to guess, Lynesse Hightower is the way to go.Why her?Well the Hightowers are a super powerful house. Lynesse is the only one confirmed to be the right age for Benjen. And the Hightowers would be totally onboard since it gives them a foothold in the North and better connects them to their little alliance chain they tried to make.I think that Lynesse’s behavior would be better at Winterfell with Benjen because:Her marriage isn’t super shady AF this time around.The Starks are much wealthier and much more central to things in the North.Benjen is a reasonably attractive fellow.Among other things.They wed in 285 AC, and together they have twins later that year, Torrhen and Raya. They have a mixture of their mother and father’s appearances.And yes, this means that Jorah’s plotline over in Essos is completely gone now. He remains on Bear Island as Lord there, with Longclaw.He’ll have to remarry at some point, but to who isn’t very clear. To wrap up loose ends, we’ll say his cousin Dacey and call it good. Together they have Beron (born 287), Alaric (born 290) and Lynara (born 292).Now I want to move on for a bit towards Jon Arryn’s appointments and arranged matches, and we should figure out why does and doesn’t change.Loras getting fostered at Storm’s End. We don’t know who came up with this or when, but I’d say there’s a very good chance Ned came up with this idea when he lifted the siege.Preston Greenfield on the Kingsguard. This screams Tywin suggested, but honestly I think Ned is gonna have to learn to set aside his differences with Tywin on some things.Boros Blount on the Kingsguard. Not entirely sure where he came from, probably named for feats performed during the Rebellion, would stay.Meryn Trant on the Kingsguard. Almost certainly named for feats performed during the Rebellion, wouldn’t change.Mandon Moore on the Kingsguard. This absolutely would change, since Mandon almost certainly went from Littlefinger to Lysa to Jon Arryn. Our chain is broken here though, so Mandon isn’t named. Most likely, Ned would name Ser Richard Horpe.Arys Oakheart on the Kingsguard. This feels like something Ned would agree to go with.Ser Aron Santagar as Master at Arms in the Red Keep. This most likely came to fruition when Jon Arryn paid Dorne a visit after Oberyn tried to raise them for Viserys. Now how this exact negotiations went down is unknown, but those Ned/Doran interactions would be absolutely awesome to read. Now Ned would likely go a bit different with regards to these negotiations though. In addition to bringing home Aron as Master at Arms, Ned probably would promise the heads of the Mountain and Ser Amory (which he gives), as well as collect at least one of the Sand Snakes as implicit hostages (we’ll go with Elia, who is gonna drive Ned insane), to serve as a companion to Sansa.Stannis marrying Selyse. Who came up with this is unclear, and I do leave open the possibility that this was arranged during the Rebellion as part of an agreement Robert made with the Florents. I’m gonna say this continues as originally.Littlefinger as Master of Coin. While there’s a good chance Littlefinger just fades into obscurity, I think his journey may just get a bit delayed, as he gets a gig somewhere in the Vale where he thrives, and in time Catelyn ends up functioning as a less eager Lysa for him in this alternate universe.Janos Slynt as Lord Commander of the City Watch. We don’t know how or why Janos was chosen by Jon Arryn, but this is almost certain to change. The trickier question is who would Ned choose, and the answer isn’t really clear. But I’m gonna say this dude:Now with Brynden we also get some changes too. He did after all originally take up service with Jon Arryn. With Jon Arryn dead though, and Lysa no longer being the Lady of the Eyrie, he probably takes up service with Ned and Catelyn then.Brynden is really the only immediate candidate that I can see Ned choosing for the Goldcloaks, since the majority of our candidates otherwise would stem from houses in the Crownlands like the Stauntons or Rosbys or Byrchs, who we don’t know much about in the main story.This fundamentally means a somewhat large shift in power as there is significantly less corruption within the City Watch. There will still be some, but with someone like Brynden at the top, there’s less as a whole.Our next shift is the dynamics for our Starklings.Obviously, them growing up in court is going to make some major shifts in dynamics.Remember how I mentioned our new Lord of the Eyrie, Jasper Arryn, is growing up with our Starklings. Later on, Ned still agrees to take on Theon as well.The overall character dynamics within House Stark probably don’t remain too dissimilar. However their dynamics elsewhere are likely a bit different.Robb and Jon’s rivalry with Joffrey is much move overt and present, and probably on several occasions they have to be seperated. But in general, Ned, and by extension the rest of the Starks are more aware of Joffrey’s cruelties. Given this, as well as the fact that it would be seen as a huge abuse of power on Ned’s part, the Joffrey-Sansa betrothal doesn’t get made, and in time after Myrcella is born (which for the sake of the story, we can push up two years since this would be an inevitability), she gets betrothed to Robb.Arya would be slightly less of a tomboy I think, because she won’t be afforded the same freedoms she was at Winterfell, and also because she is likely treated better in court as the Hand’s daughter, which at least some of why she became a tomboy in her innermonoblogue she attributes to not being treated as well as Sansa. But she also does grow up with Elia Sand, so she still certainly is wild….I also get the sense that Robb would be a bit more adventurous if he grows up in King’s Landing, and probably just the slightest bit better politically.The dynamic with the added ward in Jasper Arryn does become a little bit interesting, since I think Jasper would be closer with the whole of his foster family more than Theon was (Theon is also of course still there as well), where Theon really only ever had a relationship with Robb, Jasper does try to have a decent relationship with everyone.Also, in this scenario, I finally think we have a decent and obvious betrothal to make for Sansa, with her being betrothed to Jasper.Betrothals with fosterings aren’t the most common, but they do sometimes happen, usually in cases where we have people being fostered with others of equal status (see the attempted ward swap of Sam and one of the Redwyne Twins, with Sam being betrothed to Desmera), and Jasper and Sansa likely develop some closeness over time.Oh, I suppose I should touch on Jaime. Now, I can see a possibility where Jaime does get sent to the Night’s Watch, but I don’t think it too terribly likely. Eventually, after Ned calms down a little bit, I think he’d simply agree to have Jaime remain on the Kingsguard.I should also not fail to neglect mentioning Ned and Robert in this scenario.While the two did reconcile over the death of Lyanna, there I think would still be a fundamental break in their relationship over time, and they don’t have the extended time apart to really gloss over the past. Over their fourteen years, Ned starts to see his friend deteriorate into the Robert we met in A Game of Thrones, and while I think Robert is preserved a little bit longer and doesn’t quite turn to whoring, drinking, etc; so much, with Ned there, it’s not by much.Our story regarding their relationship would start to change, as we see in time Ned watches the man he loves as a brother falling apart, with only one major instance where he gets back to seeing the boy he grew up with (the Greyjoy Rebellion), and only a handful of moments where they truly are their chummy selves again (like when they arrange the betrothal of Robb and Myrcella).Another thing is that Ned might be a bit more fiscally responsible, and much more firmly draws the line on things, and as a result the crown is in significantly less debt, either by him curbing Robert’s appetites, or the fact that he begins to realize it’s Littlefinger who is beggaring the crown. Ultimately, it’s not by much, and the plot still remains the same, but it’s still worth considering.Also, the Walders….In canon, we know that Walder Frey approached Jon Arryn about him taking on Big and Little Walder as wards, while he in turn would take on Sweetrobin as a ward.Jon Arryn refused, since he planned on fostering Sweetrobin with Stannis, but Ned is much more open to the idea, since the son who’d get swapped for (Bran), isn’t quite as precious as Sweetrobin, and Ned doesn’t have any plans with him yet, while he figures around this time it’s good to start thinking about him getting fostered elsewhere.So Ned would take this agreement, meaning Bran is being fostered at the Twins, while the Walders are his wards in King’s Landing for a time.Now, our story likely begins in the year 300 AC, this time not with the death of Jon Arryn, but while Ned and his kids are taking a trip North (which they frequently do), they find puppies. There’s gonna be 8 now, to accommodate for Benjen and Lynesse’s kiddos.Gared is executed, etc;.And then Ned returns back south…I mean, not much too it…Now, with this in it’s on Ned’s return that shit starts to hit the fan.The story through A Game of Thrones plays out somewhat similar to before, but not completely.Obviously, there’s some fundamental shifts in dynamics and plotlines, like how our entire Night’s Watch plot is busted.But in King’s Landing, around this time is when Littlefinger starts spreading rumors about the incest. Now, Ned either picks up on the rumors, or Stannis picks up on them, and goes to Ned, like he did with Jon Arryn, but it doesn’t actually really matter, since even Ned would still go to Stannis with it anyways.The Tourney of the Hand doesn’t happen, since Ned isn’t being appointed to the position of Hand.Now, with Ned hearing about the rumors, he likely decides to start sending his kiddos away, so Jasper who is nearly of age can finally claim the Vale (the Vale has likely been ruled for the past few years by Nestor Royce, who was Steward of the Vale), probably going with Sansa.Arya and Elia Sand likely get sent to Dorne, with Ned figuring Arya would thrive there, and betrothing her to Ned Dayne.(Ahhhh, they look so cute…).I saw Ned Dayne, because he actually pops up in court occasionally as a page of Beric Dondarrion, is from a house Ned has a connection to, and is from a powerful house, and the Lord, whereas someone like Trystane isn’t the heir.Bran is still safe at the Twins, where he’s gonna remain for the time being.Meanwhile, Ned sends Robb, the Walders, Rickon, Jon, Catelyn and probably Myrcella (who would be there to serve as Catelyn’s cupbearer or some other position), get sent back to Winterfell. Catelyn doesn’t have the leverage of before regarding the fact that she’s getting seperated from her kids (since Bran being fostered was an independent event separated from the sending off of the kids, and Sansa and Arya were eventually to get married off anyways), which means Jon doesn’t get sent to the Watch, and also there’s still Benjen there, who largely holds the title of Castellan anyways, so Catelyn can’t throw Jon out on his ass anyways. And without Benjen in the Watch, Jon doesn’t get the idea to go to the Watch anyways.Brynden resigns his post as Lord Commander of the City Watch, and takes up more direct service at Winterfell too, since his job is being there for Catelyn. To replace him, Ned likely chooses a commander already in place, but the actual choice itself doesn’t really particularly matter, they’re almost certainly a Littlefinger crony.Now from here, things start to follow roughly similar to how they did originally, as in King’s Landing we still have all the same players making the same moves as before, except for the added presence of Stannis, who largely just lumps in with Ned.Ned reads the lineages, sees Gendry, Berra and remembers Mya, not necessarily in that order, but things don’t actually particularly matter in this regard. It’s what happens after he realizes the truth that matters.The biggest thing is the jumbling of events.Ned realizes the truth about the incest.Robert decides to go hunting.Ned has Stannis return to Dragonstone, with a few copies of letters, in particular to Robb and Jasper, altering them to the truth about the incest, that are nuclear options.Ned confronts Cersei in the Godswood, where he tells her he knows the truth, etc;.Robert gets gutted by the boar, returns to King’s Landing, dies.Ned tries to get Littlefinger’s support in the ensuing coup, doesn’t get it, and is thrown in the Black Cells.Obviously from here, Ned has some pretty powerful allies going for him. He himself is the Lord of the North, and his wife is the Lady of Riverrun. His good-sister is the wife of the heir to Crakehall, one of the most powerful houses in the Riverlands. He has the heir to Pyke as a ward/hostage, his brother is married to a Hightower, which makes him good-brothers with the Lord of Highgarden, a son of the Lady of Old Oaks is in service at his castle, Ned’s daughter is betrothed to the Lord of the Eyrie, and Ned has pretty deep connections there, while Ned is also a bit chummy with Dorne, after raising Elia Sand, and his chummy status with the Daynes, and he was plotting with the Lord of Dragonstone.Essentially, Ned is perhaps the most powerful prisoner ever…Now, with this, a few things likely occur that are different from canon.First, with Robb being of age, Myrcella being 13 and flowered, and Robb is about to be going off to war, so they have a hastily done marriage that doesn’t include consummation, for the sake of it (Robb doesn’t know about the incest at this point afterall).There may also be a parallel wedding around this time with Jasper and Sansa, but it’s possible Jasper remembering how the last marriage like that went down (his great-uncle and Sansa’s aunt), decides against it so as to make sure Sansa isn’t soiled in anyway should he die. Robb’s father of course, married Catelyn during this same ceremony of course, and he was conceived that night, so it’s likely then Robb sees this as totally fine.Briefly assessing the Winterfell household, Catelyn and Lynesse remain, the Blackfish goes to war, Torrhen has been a ward of the Karstarks this whole time (and stays there), Rodrik is left as Castellan, and Jeyne Poole doesn’t get given to Littlefinger because she’s still in Winterfell right now (yay!).Robb’s marriage to Myrcella becomes an oopsie because well….Second, Stannis sends those letters out, to Robb and Jasper particularly, and crowns himself earlier, feeling he has a larger base of support. He actually doesn’t yet, however he quickly does when considering Ned’s execution gets pushed forward.With all of Ned’s kids being away from King’s Landing, this means that the Lannisters lack any leverage over Ned to get him to bend the knee. And ultimately, Ned gets executed much earlier as a result, though the circumstances around it will definitely be different.It’s after this that Robb and Jasper declare for Stannis, though they had already called their forces together.Now the initial conflicts in the Riverlands, with the alleged raiding in the Riverlands by the Mountain doesn’t happen, since Tyrion is never arrested or anything, which means the Brotherhood Without Banners isn’t formed with Beric Dondarrion at its head. That’s not to say a Brotherhood wouldn’t form, but Beric leaves King’s Landing with Renly, and so as a result, Blackhaven, and by extension, Starfall, declare for Renly.Another major shift in power is that the Crakehalls likely refuse to answer Tywin’s call, since after all, their heir is married to Lysa. The Crakehalls are the best and worst house for this position.Best because they are probably in a world without the Reynes, possibly the most powerful vassal House Lannister has.Worst because they are really far south and out of the way. A main function of them would be serving to ward of an invasion from the Reach, and at this point Renly is still a foe of theirs.So really, I can see Tywin just leaving them be for the time being, since for now, they aren’t that big a problem.Jaime still hands a few defeats to Edmure in the initial conflicts, before he lays siege to Riverrun, with the only difference being the Northern and Vale forces are a little closer to engaging when these go down.And our differences from here are starting to pop up more and more frequently. At the Twins, Robb actually doesn’t need to barter with Walder (since he left his mom at home this is fine), because Ned already repaired relations with House Frey using the Big & Little Walder for Bran swap. Instead, Robb just says hi to his brother, and moves on.Also, Jon and Benjen are in Robb’s host as well. Benjen takes command of the infantry along the Kingsroad, while Jon goes with Robb out west to Riverrun (the Vale forces take a little while to assemble, since Jasper is going through the same conflicts Robb is, but probably ten times worse, with several houses likely straight up refusing his call, and some encounters with the Mountain Clansmen on the way out of the Vale).This means the Battle of the Whispering Wood, and the Camps occur as originally, just without any Braxs.The Battle of the Green Fork is still an engagement of Stark and Lannister forces, before the Arryn forces enter the picture, and it plays out very differently as the main focus on Tywin’s end is more trying to knock out the Stark forces before they can link up with the Arryn forces, and there’s less of a, “we’ll ultimately make peace,” mentality prior to the Battle, given that Ned is already dead, and the Starks and Arryns have already declared for Stannis.Oh, and with Tyrion still in King’s Landing, this means that the Mountain Clansmen aren’t in play.So the Battle of the Green Fork rather than seeing the Northern forces try to take Tywin by surprise during the night and ambush him, instead just taking up a firm defensive position, and waiting for the Arryns to come in from the East, which would pin Tywin with an army to the North, and army to the East, and a river to the West (dang if only the Southeastern part of the Riverlands, possibly the most powerful sub-region in Westeros, having at one point been home to Harrenhal, Whitewalls, Darry and Maidenpool, had quality leadership and were loyal to the Starks, they’d destroy Tywin completely then).The Battle of the Green Fork has Tywin attacking the Northerners who have taken up a strong defensive location, with heavy Lannister loses. Just when you thought it couldn’t get any worse, the Vale forces sweep in from the east, and the Lannister host under the command of Tywin is decimated as well.Tywin himself is slain, and a few remnants reform, however are quickly destroyed in subsequent battles.Now, assessing our situation a bit, we have Stannis on Dragonstone with like 5k men, and the only major navy in play, Robb at Riverrun with 10k? men, the joint Arryn-Stark host of like 50k in the Westerlands (they pick up other forces from the Riverlords as well, which is how they got so high), Stafford Lannister’s forming host of like, IDK, 10k, at Oxcross, Forley Prester’s host of 4k at the Golden Tooth, and Renly with like 100k at Highgarden.Obviously, Robb doesn’t get crowned king here, since they’ve declared for Stannis.Now Stannis actually does have the advantage at this point over Renly, with the full backing of 3 kingdoms, the Lords of the Narrow Sea, and all the major militaristic victories so far. And beyond that, there’s actually the internal divisions to consider within the Reach, where the Redwynes are currently neutral, the Lord of Starpike is married to a Lannister, the Swanns are playing both sides, and Stannis has a clear path to more allies, being married to a Florent, and the Florents in turn are connected to several other key houses, like the Cranes, Tarlys and Hightowers.And Stannis himself is an amazing commander, and you have guys like the Blackfish and Yohn Royce too, (while Renly’s only amazing commander we know of, Randyll Tarly is one of those dudes with connections to Stannis).The problem is they’re too disorganized, and lack a clear path forward.Robb out west decides to go bring the Westerlands to their knees, (he also sends Theon home, despite Jon’s protests), Benjen and the Vale forces move towards Harrenhal to secure the region there, and begin prepping for an assault on King’s Landing, or to lay siege (Stannis of course controls the most ships there), but Stannis is busy trying to work alliances and deal with Renly.It becomes a mess.Now, in this alternate universe where things aren’t going so badly for Stannis, he likely doesn’t have Melisandre there. Additionally, with the Vale and North behind Stannis, Cressen gives some different advice to Stannis for how to win the throne.Since Stannis is in a much better place he’s also much more willing to consider them, and ultimately ends up agreeing to betroth Shireen to Trystane, and foster her at Sunspear.Now after sending Theon home, Robb goes west, as previously mentioned.In this AU, with Lysa married to Tybolt Crakehall, the Crakehalls are neutral, or support Robb.Robb wins the Battle of Oxcross as originally, then goes on a campaign throughout the Westerlands, taking Ashemark, The Crag, then continuing to whatever the Plumms castle is (we don’t know, but I can’t imagine they don’t have one) and overall wrecking havoc on the Northern part of the Westerlands.The problem is that the Greyjoys still invade the North, and most particularly, Theon still takes Winterfell.A few things go down that are different from canon, obviously. Largely the introduction of our four new ladies of Winterfell essentially, with Catelyn, Lynesse, Myrcella and Raya.First, Theon marries Raya to boost his hold, like he thought he would’ve done with Sansa in canon.Raya isn’t quite as eager, but essentially that.With Bran not there, it’s likely Myrcella who as Robb’s wife is the official lady of Winterfell who yields the castle.There’s no attempted escape by Rickon, which means his death is never faked.And with two direwolves, a knight of the Kingsguard (Ser Arys Oakheart), and Osha around, it’s likely the Starks are able to put up more of an internal resistance, combined with Ramsay posing as Reek offing a few of Theon’s men.The biggest difference though is that with Torrhen likely coming in with Karstark forces from the North, the forces outside of Winterfell are more numerous. Additionally, Torrhen who has lived his whole live in the North Eastern region of the North probably would be able to recognize Reek, and this means the Karstark and Bolton forces actually deal with each other before either reaches Winterfell.So Winterfell ends up being resecured for the Starks, after Rodrik is able to cut some sort of deal with Theon, since the most long term damage Theon has done was marry Benjen’s only daughter.Theon serves as an implicit hostage against the Ironborn, while Ser Rodrik is able to start going about on a campaign of retaking the North.Meanwhile, since his sister did it, Torrhen decides to get married to, marrying Alys Karstark.(This is pretty much the only piece I could find of Jon and Alys Karstark, , which is the closest to an actual piece of Torrhen and Alys I’d be able to get)Since I can imagine he and Alys might have developed a fondness for each other similar to Brandon and Barbrey Ryswell. In case you’re wondering, not every fostering will result in a subsequent marriage, that’s just how things have played out so far (the Walders and Bran still exist after all).The Northern and Vale forces out east move south, first going to Harrenhal, and rallying support in the region, before continuing south along the Kingsroad, taking Rosby, Hayford and Stokeworth, before digging in for a siege around King’s Landing.Only issue is that Stannis isn’t there with naval support, since he already sailed south on Storm’s End.Now the Stannis/Renly fight plays out differently here, because Melisandre isn’t there.I’ve written elsewhere on how Melisandre didn’t actually assassinate Renly, and it was Stannis who largely did it. But I do think Melisandre had some role in unlocking Stannis’s ability to do so.But also, Stannis is in a better position than before. I already mentioned that he has several houses who seem like natural supporters in the Reach, but also, the Dondarrions and Daynes are in play right now. Beric likely initially fled with Renly, however he’s chummy with the Daynes, who are friendly with the Starks, who are declared for Stannis.So this means House Dondarrion actually likely joined with Stannis in the Stormlands bringing like 2–4k men to the table (the Dondarrions once brought 4k against one of the Vulture Kings in history).And perhaps a few more Stormlords declared for him in turn, following the Dondarrions, and also considering Stannis crowned himself earlier, and his much more support.The point is, the Battle is much more even, than it was before numerically, and the remaining difference is largely made up for by the fact that Stannis has the positioning advantages.This being said, the Battle likely gets largely remembered as a stalemate. The two hosts largely decimate each other, with neither particularly winning. Renly and his remaining host return to Bitterbridge, while Stannis continues to lay siege to Storm’s End. Technically it goes down as a victory for Stannis.The men inside Storm’s End see this battle unfold, and with the continued siege, it’s likely eventually they end mutiny and kill Ser Cortnay Penrose (which they probably did in canon).And King’s Landing falls to the joint Arryn-Stark host. Remember, at this point, the Lannisters aren’t getting any food, so even without the ships laying siege, the city eventually falls to shit, and rioters eventually take over a gate, allowing the Stannis supporting forces in.After securing the capital, this sets up a battle between the Stannis supporters and Renly supporters, as the Arryn and clash along the Roseroad, a Battle of Tumbleton, if you will. Those Stannis supporters Renly’s been keeping around come back to bite him in the ass, and he is eventually slain in battle.Now, Stannis assumes the throne, and becomes king, yay!Joffrey, Tyrion, Littlefinger, and Cersei are for sure all dead, as is probably Jaime now.Robb and Stannis likely cut a deal that would see Myrcella get legitimized as a daughter of Cersei or Jaime (but not Robert), allowing her to claim the Lannister name and by extension, Casterly Rock, allowing Robb to go home.Balon Greyjoy dies, which means Robb has a clearer path to retaking Moat Cailin as well, and he doesn’t have to get Red Wedded, and he’s able to return home safely.Theon is used to claim the Isles from here, and bring them into the fold, meanwhile Jasper has to get to work bringing the Reach to their knees.Robb and company also don’t have much peace in the North for long, even with the Ironborn invasion finished, as there’s the Wildlings descending on the Wall. Jon, Robb and Benjen eventually make an agreement with the Wildlings to settle them in the New Gift, and Jon probably marries Val to secure the agreement.Jasper eventually returns home, marries Sansa, etc;.And Westeros lives happily ever after under the Mannis right?FalseGotta remember that FAegon is coming, and it’s likely that without Tyrion there, he ends up not turning Westwards, to bring Daenerys west, but continues East, and makes an alliance there, so they have a huge, well trained army, and three dragons behind them.And Stannis himself isn’t too popular a dude anyways, with the Ironborn holding grudges against him, while his ascent almost certainly means major shifts in power within the Reach that aren’t likely to be very peaceful.Plus, Stannis’s heir is Shireen, an ugly girl, marred with Greyscale who is betrothed to a Dornishmen. Sexism, racism, and just general Westerosi culture is against her, vs. the seemingly golden couple of Daenerys and FAegon.But of course, there’s also the problem that there are some strong anti-Targaryen sentiments (like with the Hightowers), and some pretty staunch Stannis loyalists (namely Robb and Jasper).Westeros is looking at a very long and bloody civil war between the two parties.Not quite sure what the Others are up to, but it’s possible that they’re a non-presence, as when we piece together all their actions, outside of the attack on Waymar Royce, it seems they were just on their way to collect Gilly’s kid from Craster’s, and without the Great Ranging (because Jon’s not around), then the Watch hasn’t really provoked the Others.And of course, Doran and his master plan are the biggest wildcard here.Really, with Jon Arryn being removed from the story, we still largely have a similar plot to the one before. Some plotlines, such as everything with the Faceless Men, the Catspaw and all it’s fallout, Bran’s adventures North of the Wall, etc; are dropped, but the story is much similar than I thought it would be.Some of this may be because that’s how I choose to write it (which I won’t particularly deny), but some of this is because GRRM has largely written a story that is more robust than people give it credit for, often with multiple reasons that can replace others for why things are happening, and because the bulk of the characters we meet are just pawns, while the true people that matter are the schemers.