Hospital Admission: Fill & Download for Free

My personal view is that “well beyond Easter” is cautious expectation management.Here is the modelled impact of the first 12 million or so vaccinations, assuming we keep reasonably on track for the next month, but without assuming any reduction in cases from lockdown:That would place hospital admissions in a more “normal” state just before Easter.However, it seems likely from the current infection rate data (and it has been true for nearly two weeks) that lockdown is also reducing cases, and the impact on hospital admissions is pretty rapid (from date of change in reported cases to date of change in hospital admissions is only around 5 days, peak to peak and trough to trough in the public data).Taking an optimistic view, if the case rate continues to fall at its current percentage change of 10%-20% weekly reduction in cases, then we would see hospital admissions from Covid-19 fall by 70%+ by the end of February from the peak on 12th January.I am hopeful that it will be difficult to justify lockdown beyond the end of February, though of course the exit from lockdown would still need to be into the controlled tier system in some form.The numbers will be clear by mid February, and until then it is educated guesswork.

That depends on how vaccination is handled in your country.Most countries vaccinate the most vulnerable elderly first. At least some European countries are already done with this, and are moving on to elderly in general.Those are the ones that are overwhelmingly more likely to die.It takes about two weeks from vaccination to protection. Then another two weeks from infection to hospital admission. Then another one to two weeks from hospital admission to death.For the countries moving from the most vulnerable to the general elderly now, we should see a clear effect in six weeks. That brings us to the end of February.There are early signs already that hospital admissions are dropping in European countries that started vaccination just after Christmas. The UK, which was first to start vaccination, has had admissions dropping for a week now, which is consistent with my guesstimates above.

Some perceive it as special treatment because HRH Prince Charles is a royal. One paper noted:The rules stipulate visits would be allowed only if patients have extra caring needs, or if they are receiving end of life care. But they also state that visits from one person will also be considered "in exceptional circumstances".Any hospital admission for a 99 year old man in frail health is a potential “end of life” admission. So a short visit to a patient that has been vaccinated from his son who has had and recovered from COVID-19 and has also been vaccinated is of low risk to the patient or the hospital.Personally, having lost my 94 year old father to COVID-19 in December 2020, I am happy that Charles had an opportunity to visit his Dad.