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What is the controversy surrounding AOA Jimin and Mina?

[Mina is the one on the left and Jimin is the one on the right][Trigger Warning: Self H*rm, Su*cide, Bullying][Notice: This post is very long, and will be updated when there is something new going on]-On July 3rd, Kwon Min Ah posted on her Instagram black posts, with long captions detailing years of bullying she faced from AOA’s Leader, Shin Ji Min.This includes, Jimin preventing Mina from visiting her father while he was dying, telling her things such as to get lost, Shaming her body figure, Scaring and Threatening her, Physically Abusing and tormenting her, how FNC Entertainment did not do anything about it despite Mina’s claims to Jimin bullying her and how she had been bullied by her since she was Trainee [Mina began training for FNC in 2009].Mina also stated that after Jimin’s father had recently passed away (In April), She visited the funeral hall to show some support toward Jimin, Jimin then cried and apologized to her.During the time that Mina was posting these posts, Jimin posted on her Instagram story with the word “fiction”, which was quickly deleted.Mina, as expected, was outraged by what Jimin had posted on her Instagram story and had furthermore posted other posts explaining that as a result of a decade-long of bullying she faced from Jimin, she had to take sleeping pills to fall asleep, had to put on a fake smile, and had attempted su*cide and committed self h*rm. She had also stated that she was completely broken by Jimin’s actions and that members of her family were also suffering.According to Mina, there are witnesses and evidence of what Jimin had done.The Self h*rm that Mina had committed to herself was not minor at all, in which she had cut quite deep in and many have commented stating that the scars that Mina had cut on her wrist would require stitches.It is clear in her posts that she was frustrated with Jimin when Jimin was going through a tough time in her matters, Jimin received prescribed medication and help, which in comparison to Mina, who had not received any assistance. And also frustration on how Jimin is living her life while she is suffering because of her.Then Mina further stated that During their contract renewal, the reason she did not renew was because of Jimin and as a result had left both AOA and FNC. Mina is currently signed to Woori Actors.Throughout these posts, I believe that Mina was in a state of outrage in which it is clear that she had really poured out her anger and frustration.Woori Actors had released a statement stating that they were contacting her and that she was regaining emotional stability.Link for further references and the translations or her posts: Update: Former AOA Member Mina Posts Allegations Detailing Years Of Harassment From JiminWhat Mina was trying to do was to get Jimin to sincerely apologize to her and reflect on what she had done.This became controversial as Jimin was the leader of AOA and how serious the allegations were.Many people (both I-Netz and K-Netz) showed Support for Mina, and outrage and disgust against Jimin. Some were even asking for Jimin to get thrown out of FNC and AOA, Getting blacklisted from the industry, and getting her social media taken down.-Mina said in a post, which she said would final post regarding the matter: she apologized for the concern and explained how a lot of people came to her place to comfort and talk with her that night.During the Dusk Hours (In which I believe that at that 12 AM - 2 AM time), All of the AOA Members and Managers had come to her house and they had a talk.In the post, she had stated that Jimin was angry at first and that she was in disbelief, She and Jimin had argued, in which Jimin asked where the knives were and if killing herself would be enough. Both of them later settled down from the arguing and talked, Jimin stated that she does not remember what has happened and Mina explained to her all the times where she was hurt by her.Mina then further explained that she wasn't in her right mind either and that Jimin did not recall much of the allegations and how she didn't remember all either but they were talking face to face.In Jimin’s point of view, everything was settled at her father’s funeral in which she had Apologized to Mina. Mina said she was only there to show support to Jimin and that on the day of the funeral they did not have an actual talk about what happened between them.Their Talk continued and Jimin said she was sorry, and she had apologized to her and Mina had accepted her apology, after the apology, Jimin left her house with the remaining AOA Members.Mina said she does not feel any intention from Jimin to sincerely apologize, but she also said that it could be just because she was so mad at her.The post ended with Mina stating that she was going to Move on from the decade of bullying and abuse, regain her composure, receive treatment, and improve her mental health.This is what Mina said would be the full stop.Throughout the post, Mina did not mention what the other members and managers did or say during their talk at her house.-The Posts had caused public outrage against Jimin, in which many stating that she was gaslighting and that she had not even sincerely apologized for what she had done.Some people had stated that all the harassment that Jimin is currently facing and all the hate comments are “what she deserves” and is Karma.Some other people said that they had a bad feeling of Jimin all along and had “never liked her”, “always hated her” and “she was a b*tch all along”.Some other people have stated that they were just going to stay out of the entire thing.Many have stated that they never want to see Jimin ever again, Jimin’s apology is the worst apology that they have heard and how she doesn't deserve to exist.Numerous people began criticizing Seolhyun [Note: Seolhyun is Jimin’s Best friend and they have matching tattoos together], for being friends with Jimin and how she was a “bystander” of the bullying.People are speculating if Mina is the only person that Jimin had bullied or if Seolhyun was also involved in bullying her.During this time, videos were resurfacing of which netizens claim to be Jimin bullying Mina, Some of the videos which were stated as proof happen to have been edited videos created by netizens.-Jimin on her Instagram issued an official apology towards Mina and the public and how remorseful she is towards her actions. She also stated that she felt like she could only show the good sides of the group [AOA] to the public. From the apology, I can tell that Jimin yesterday was distraught in how she revealed that she had “begged and cried again”.Jimin’s apology according to my observations is not well received and many stating that she had claimed mina’s allegations as “fiction” less than a day ago. Some have stated that it is not sincere enough and that she is trash and should go die. And with some others saying that she had only apologized because of the backlash she had faced.As Mina mentioned on how Jimin apologized during the funeral, I think during this point Jimin was already regretful about what she had done.-Shortly after Jimin posted her apology, Mina said that Jimin did not beg and said that Jimin had brought a man to their dorm and had s** with him and as a result, Mina slept in the practice room. Mina also said that Jimin bullied her because she wanted her to be on the “right path”. Mina also stated that Jimin is not apologetic for what she had done and still hates her. The response hints that the AOA members are on Jimin’s side on this bullying scandal.This post is extremely concerning as she says “I’ll say what I have to say before I leave”-Following the bullying allegations, The Interview from AOA Member Chanmi’s mother had resurfaced. In this interview, Chanmi’s mother stated how her daughter was suffering from severe depression and the treatment of FNC towards the group members. According to her mother, Chanmi had not been paid for 5 years and she was banned from using a personal phone.-On July 3rd, shortly after Mina’s posts, Former AOA Black (AOA Black was an AOA Sub-unit which comprised Jimin, Yuna, Choa, Mina, and Yookyung) member Yookyung posted an ambiguous message on Instagram which came with the caption “The first thing I do when I wake up in the morning is give up on today” + “To be honest, everything looked the same to me back then” then she wrote in English - “I can’t forget the eyes of the bystanders”. The post’s captions were followed by the lyrics of the song “Leave It All Behind” by Sleeping with Sirens. The post garnered much speculation from the public and numerous netizens connected it with what happened between Mina and Jimin. On July 6th, Yookyung posted an official apology to the public for the confusion over her previous post. This apology fueled speculation as she mentions that she was struggling but could not imagine that someone was in the same position as her. Many began to speculate that she was another victim of the bullying by Jimin, but as of now, there is no direct confirmation. Yookyung was only a member of the sub-unit, AOA Black, and was never an official part of AOA, Yookyung Left FNC in October 2016.-As announced by FNC, Jimin has made the decision to leave AOA and to halt her activities in the industry but her contract with FNC is not terminated as of now. FNC also states in their statement that they take full responsibility for what has happened, during the entire statement that had not mentioned Mina. Reactions towards her leaving were generally positive, many stating that it’s for the better, Many saying it is what Mina wanted and what they wanted, Many others celebrating and some others even stating that AOA at this point should just disband._After about a month of the original posts, On August 6, 2020, Mina began posting about this scandal once again.She posted a post with a picture of her cut wrist with stitches and with a long caption.Throughout this post, Mina had revealed that she had exchanged KakaoTalk Messages with a Current FNC Employee in July. She asked what does the statement mean by Jimin apologized and she said that Jimin shouldn't lie. The employee responded by saying that they’d check again and said it had looked like what it is to them. She proceeded by saying that she gives up on getting an apology from Jimin. Mina found the FNC’s Employees' replies outrageous and had begun to cut herself again.Her Current Manager rushed her to a hospital in which her wrist was cut so much that the nerves were extensively damaged and the anesthetic would not work. As a result, Mina had to get painkillers injected.Mina said that her Ex-Manager stayed by her side the whole time, She is worried that Jimin may be able to get back into the group and industry when things have calmed down. She says that Jimin will never understand what she has gone through and took down the “fiction” Instagram story only because her manager told her to do so.FNC did get Mina a psychiatrist after all of that, but Mina is concerned that the psychiatrist might have told someone else about her story as the psychiatrist told her other people’s stories (It is Illegal to do that).Mina also states that she and her family had never complained about anything in the Agency whether it was her Training debt or Payment. She hopes to get better and live a better life. In Mina’s view, FNC and Jimin are not sincere at all, and that she now can’t sleep. She continued by stating that FNC does not care about her as she says how they have never contacted her and that during contract renewal when Mina told them she could not renew her contract because of a certain person [Jimin], they didn't bother to ask her about how she was suffering and instead talked about the damages of a breached contract. Mina ends the FNC section of the post by saying that it’s too late for a sincere apology and they should think about and care for everyone else currently under the label so this does not happen again.In the last section of the post, She says that the people supporting her and her current label caring about her helps her a lot. She then clarified that she is an attention-seeker but not attention-seeking through this scandal. She personally feels resentful for everyone who came to save her, she then ends the entire post by saying that she can’t sleep because of all the concerns and questions that she has and hopes that all of this won’t happen to someone else again.-Woori Actors then reassured everyone by stating that she is currently in Good Health and is resting after her recent discharge.-She then released a second post later in which she talks about the rest of the Current AOA members and some clarification about the previous post. During this post, she does not give out names but she does call them by their surname, but through the hints given I have managed to crack down who is who.She said that after unfollowing the members on Instagram, there were a lot of questions about the things that have happened.She says that Seolhyun did not bat an eye even when Jimin spoke ill of Seolhyun. She used to think of Seolhyun as a good friend but did not get closer to her as she is the best friend of Jimin. Mina says she got worried about Seolhyun and gave her advice. All the members know about the bullying going on and that Mina was having a hard time because of Jimin, they spoke together but Seolhyun just said that she didn't care what happens and just doesn't like the current situation. Mina concludes that in her point of view, Seolhyun is a bystander and that she was disappointed in what Seolhyun had said.When everyone came to Mina’s place where Jimin gave her an apology (Mina says that the apology didn't even seem like an apology), Chanmi asked Mina what was a good memory she had, Mina says she couldn't understand why she said that. Mina said that Chanmi would talk bad about Jimin in front of her, but behind Mina’s back, she would appease Jimin.Yuna was the one who sincerely cared and thought about Mina.Hyejeong asked Jimin why she couldn't remember (all the things she had done) and that She and everyone knew about it. Hyejeong told Mina to receive a proper apology from Jimin.Mina ended the post by concluding that Chanmi and Seolhyun in her view are the bystanders and it explains why she unfollowed them first, She said that she wanted to erase her memories of AOA and as a consequence unfollowed all of them.-Some assume that Mina is attention-seeking as they believed that everything was cleared up in July and that she shouldn't drag this on for another decade.Countless others sided with Mina and understood that she was still in a fragile mental state and showed support towards her.Some netizens had shown disgust at FNC, for not caring about her.Some other people think that she needs to step off social media and get proper treatment and help.-Later that day, she deleted the two posts that she had posted and released a post regarding the matter of Jimin’s Apology.In this post, Mina claims that she had only spoken the truth and wasn't trying to turn everyone into a perpetrator just because she was a victim. She states that she has made mistakes too and has a personality problem, Then she continued by saying that she really wants to receive a sincere apology. She revealed that she had attempted to have a conversation with “the people at that place” (I believe that it is FNC or Jimin), but could not get in contact with them. She personally is scared of how she may become more wrecked and scared of what she can do, she ended the post by apologizing.-Many have shown encouragement to Mina, telling her to move on as well as some demanding FNC and Jimin to issue a sincere apology.I checked Mina’s Instagram account and it seems to me that she had deleted some of the previous allegation posts and posts of her scars.-At this point, I think it is still a very delicate situation and really only a small portion of the entire scandal has come to light. As of now, nobody else involved in the scandal has openly expressed their thoughts regarding the Mina-Jimin bullying controversy.-There was another update on August 8, 2020, with Mina posting an extremely concerning post targeting Jimin, Seolhyun, and the Founder of FNC.In this post, she posted a picture of her cut wrist and told them to compensate her family lavishly for psychological damage, saying that the 3 of them don’t care about anything but money and that she was not paid properly.She then continued by stating that under her contract she was an illegal trainee for 8 years and never got a breakdown over a 3 billion KRW (2.5 million USD) debt. She called them out for being “unspeakable trash” as they cornered a healthy person to death.She ends the post by concluding that she wants to go to a happy place and if she dies, she will haunt them and that told them not to come to her funeral as she says that she can’t live while supporting evil.The post was later taken down.-Shortly after the post, Woori Actors stated that police and emergency services have been contacted, ambulance services have arrived, and their staff, as they speak, are on their way to her house. Later, they updated by stating that Mina is currently in hospital receiving treatment and that her life is currently not in danger.-Netizens have commented that the post was disturbing and that she should be taken to a facility where she is monitored 24/7 to prevent any future damage.-Woori Actors gave an update the following day that Mina would be discharged soon and after a recommendation from medical professionals, she would move in with her mother and receive further treatment.-Shortly after Woori Actors update on Mina’s condition, FNC Entertainment released an Official Statement regarding this matter.In the statement, FNC states that they are sincerely apologetic about the concern with many unfortunate matters relating to AOA and they extended their apologies to Kwon Mina who is currently going through a difficult time.They apologize for the delay in their statement and apologize for failing to have carefully taken care of the relationship between the AOA Members. They revealed that they have contemplated and hesitated several times regarding delivering their stance regarding this matter.FNC Entertainment gave an update on the other AOA Members stating that they have been spending the days with frustration over criticism from the public and misunderstandings about them.FNC Entertainment further then concluded that explaining and refuting things regarding this scandal would only fuel the fire and do more harm than good. They have discouraged the members from making individual statements although the members had wished to as there would be fights over it.In the statement, they did mention Mina’s text exchange with FNC employees in which Mina asked about Jimin’s status and plans for activities. FNC claims that they did not respond as Jimin had already personally told the company that she does not intends to have any plans and wishes to live a non-celebrity life.Mina called FNC out yesterday regarding payment issues, FNC responded to that in their statement that they have been abiding by industry-standard and if there are any problems they will take legal responsibility.They closed the statement wishing for Mina’s recovery and that they will work hard to a solution and asked the public to show support and cheer for Mina.-Some Commenters continued to criticize the agency by telling them it’s too late for an apology, the statement is bulls***, and that they have lost public respect should just go to hell.-During the morning of August 10th, Woori Actors Updated that Mina has been discharged and is currently resting at her mother’s home. They continued that Mina would not be involved in any activities until she has fully recovered.-Mina returned to Instagram on the 11th of August, In which she apologized to the public and all those who supported her during this difficult time and everyone who saw those scar photos. Her Former FNC Family Members stayed by her side all night long. She had met with FNC Chairman Han Sung Ho earlier that day and could feel his sincerity in the words he spoke. She apologized again to all the fans, acquaintances, family, and AOA Fans who went through a hard time because of this. The post concluded by saying that she will reflect and work hard on her treatment and that this does not happen again.-Some Netizens commented that she did not need to apologize, with some others stating that FNC Entertainment, AOA Members, and Jimin should be the ones writing apologies instead.Some other commenters speculated that she has a bi-polar personality in which they say explains why she went from one extreme to another.-After a month of silence from Jimin, It was discovered that she had taken down all her videos on her YouTube Channel.-On the 12th of August, Mina had deleted the apology she had written the day earlier and a source from Woori Actors told Hankook Ilbo [A Korean newspaper] that Mina has decided that she would focus on her treatment and has deleted her Instagram account.-People have shown support for her and many have agreed that Mina stepping off social media is a good choice and wishes her the best with her treatment.-According to an exclusive report from Joongang Ilbo [A Korean newspaper], On the 13th of August, the Gangnam Police Station began a preliminary internal investigation into the Bullying of Kwon Mina. The report stated that it was a civil complaint sent to the police station on the 9th by an unnamed longtime Elvis [AOA Fan]. Since the complaint was sent in by a fan who is not directly involved in it, For the investigation to continue, the victim has to appear to talk to the detectives in charge.Woori Actors had stated to 동아닷컴 that it is true that they have received a call from the police regarding it and after further discussion with Mina, they have decided to turn down the investigation as she still is in a fragile mental state and that this is not giving her strength but instead making it worse.The Agency later then reaffirmed to OSEN that they have requested the Police not investigate this as Mina has no intention of reporting and does not want to have anything to do with the investigation.-Some fans began raising suspicion towards this decision stating that she must have something to hide. Others said that they respected this decision as it was her own choice as well and that doing this investigation would be stressful for her. One netizen had made a comment saying that because she is in an unstable condition (in which she can go from one extreme to another), people should not take her internet comments too seriously and that after proper treatment and when her mental health is back in good form, she may regret the social media comments that she has made.-Woori Actors later stated that a future investigation into this controversy could cause Mina’s emotions to blow up again and that it could result in dangerous consequences. The agency’s current top priority is her psychological stability and for her to focus on her treatment.-On September 26th, 2020, Woori Actors announced that Mina has parted ways with the agency citing that she wanted to focus on her wellbeing and is taking a hiatus for the time being. Her contract was terminated following negotiations shortly after her 27th birthday on September 21st.-Shortly after it was revealed that Mina had left Woori Actors, Jimin set her Instagram account to private. Her Instagram account was opened back to the public shortly after, since her public apology on Instagram, Jimin has been inactive on social media.-Mina returned to Instagram days after she departed from Woori Actors with a selfie of herself.-On October 5, 2020, Mina took to her Instagram and revealed a series of death threats and malicious DMS she has received from a netizen along with the screenshots, which included the netizen's Instagram username.She then publicly clapped back at this netizen and told them in the caption to shut up.Some fans began to get concerned that she may have relapsed and flooded the comment section with kind words of encouragement.-On October 7, 2020, Mina reassured fans in an Instagram post stating that a lot of people got worried about her following the DMs but she only feels hurt and remembers the things that are said by people she knows and the people around her. She then continued stating that she is not affected by insults thrown at her by strangers. Mina gave an update that she is doing a lot better and only posted the DMs to vent her anger, she concluded that she has not been in touch or meeting the people around her and does not want to be hurt again and told fans not to worry about her.-During the early hours of October 26, 2020, Mina took to Instagram and posted a picture of herself, captioning that she had trouble sleeping, no matter how many sleeping pills she takes, she is unable to fall asleep. She then goes on to state that she has lost trust in the people she has met and her anxiety makes it difficult to meet up with people. She asked Fans for recommendations of any psychiatrist that gives good advice and good prescriptions in the Dongtan or Ilsan Area.-Many Netizens supported her, but some others feel like she returned to social media too quickly and should stop posting her personal issues on Instagram.-Since she departed from Woori Actors, Mina has started a beauty business in collaboration with a cosmetics company, something which mina has previously stated was a dream of hers. According to my observations and her latest Instagram posts, mina appears to be in a good condition.-On Christmas eve 2020, Mina posted a lengthy Instagram post with a red photo.She started by calling out malicious commenters who she belives are Jimin’s fans for coming to her account and attacking her for “ruining Jimin’s life”, she then accused them of being “murderers” and stated that Jimin keeps coming back to her in her thoughts and dreams, which prevents her from falling asleep.Mina also expressed how all she has ever told was the truth and Jimin’s even worse than all the allegations that have been publicized against her. As Mina has mentioned in earlier posts, she feels like Jimin never acknowledged what she has done or apologized.According to Mina, Jimin does not remember the alleged things she’s done to Mina and won’t acknowledge it either. She then revealed because of Jimin, she lives on medication and can’t control herself, she also states that she wants to take revenge on Jimin.Mina felt like she didn't gather all the evidence of Jimin’s actions and foolishly felt like she could turn Jimin around. On the day, where Jimin visited her following the publicized allegations, Mina thought Jimin was recording with her cell phone, and as a result, did not cuss her out. She asks the malicious commenters if they pity the person who did all that she wanted and abused her power.She concluded the lengthy post by stressing how they don’t know about what she has been through and asks them to not bring this topic up as she is suffering.-Netizens have shown support for Mina, leaving her encouraging messages and wishing for her recovery. There have been netizens who have commented that Mina should step away from social media completely until she is fully recovered and that 1 month of hiatus is not enough. Some other netizens accused Mina of using this scandal for the promotion of her products.-On January 18th, 2021, Mina posted a lengthy Instagram post, calling out an AOA Fan who claimed that Mina is ruining many people’s lives (including AOA Members) through the comments that she had made on Social Media and how Mina has not provided any solid evidence of the entire bullying incident.Mina responded that in recent times she is having fun and getting better by doing the things she wants to do. Mina states that she wants to stop hearing about Jimin time and time again and did not provide evidence as it would fuel the flames once more. Mina wants to put the entire incident to bed and blames Jimin for why she commits self-harm.Throughout the scandal, Jimin has become a punching bag and a Magnet for Hate comments, and Mina believes that she is not the reason for this and that she is receiving the same amount of hate Jimin is currently receiving.Following this post, Mina uploaded a picture of her diagnosis from the hospital and that she has received treatment from February 27th, 2016 to March 20th, 2018. The Hospital wrote that she had been bullied by Jimin and has attempted suicide multiple times. In the caption, Mina writes that she began taking sleeping pills since she was 20 and it was around 2015/16 when it became unbearable. She has been going to several different hospitals to find a cure but pills no longer affect her.Some Netizens are asking her to Stay Strong and focus on the love she is receiving over the hate comments and that they truly believe her. While there have been others who are more critical about Mina and are calling her entitled and that she is only providing evidence that she is mentally unstable and not that she has been bullied.-The Scars on Mina were first noticed back in June 2020 in which she posted on Instagram with the caption “packed” then later deleted. Some people suspected that it was self-harm and others saying that it was just a burn mark.-Since July, AOA Members Seolhyun, Yuna, and Hyejeong have returned to Instagram. Former AOA member Choa has returned to the music industry following 3 years of hiatus after leaving the group in 2017 due to health issues.On New Year’s Day, 2021, FNC Entertainment announced that Yuna departed FNC Entertainment.-I think that this entire scandal should be a wake-up call to people on how artists may be suffering from mental illnesses but are ignored and how things are not what it seems on the outside.I am not supportive of the “Bully the Bully” campaign that is going in which stans state that they want Jimin to feel the same pain and go through the same thing that Mina did (I’m talking about the su*cide attempt and the self h*rm). Bullying the Bully is not going to help anyone in any way.Mina’s posts to me were very concerning and I do not believe that it is entirely fake of what Jimin claims is “fiction”. Only if she was telling the truth that her posts have the emotions, frustration, hurt, and anger that it conveys.I think that people should not throw themselves into this because we are not the witnesses (unless you actually are) and we are not Mina or Jimin.What I think people should be doing is sending support to Mina to show that she is heard and supported during this difficult time.Throughout the research for this post, I read thousands of internet comments, some have even said that they were shocked as they said they thought the group members were “family”.I also think about how companies market the “Family” Image in between groups should be brought to light. Many people think group members love each other and respect each other like family, when they behind the curtains, could have hatred towards each other (Note: this is not a generalization, indeed some groups do have actual friendships and relationships with each other).-I Apologize if this may inflict pain and trauma to the readers of this post.

What is your guess about the future of Turkey in 2030? (Economic, military, etc.)

Displeasing populist politician assertions, no country is truly self sufficient as most economies are intertwined.Lets look how major forecasters such as Fitch or Standard and Poor see the economic outlook for 2020/2021.In the meantime, be wary of forecasts. Statistics is one of the most potent tools mathematics has made available to other sciences. But like any power tool, it can cause havoc in the wrong hands. We should rely on experts, but the experts in question are not economists and armchair virologists. They are bio-statisticians who understand not only the statistical methods but also the many subtleties behind the data.Anyone prone to drawing big conclusions from popular online virus data trackers should heed Robert Grant, a British medical statistician who tweeted last week: “I’ve studied this stuff at university, done data analysis for decades, written several NHS guidelines (including one for an infectious disease), and taught it to health professionals. That’s why you don’t see me making any coronavirus forecasts.”A) Global outlookStandard & Poor's Global Ratings noted in a recent statement that "the eurozone and the UK are facing recessions" and that "we now expect gross domestic product (GDP -- in the eurozone and the UK) to fall around two percent this year due to economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic," representing a loss of 420 billion euros in real GDP in 2020 "compared with our forecast from November 2019."However, the "risks are still to the downside, as the pandemic might last longer and be more widespread than we currently envisage. For example, we estimate a lock-down of four months could lower eurozone GDP by up to 10 percent this year," S&P analysts wrote."The forecast fall in global GDP for the year as a whole is on a par with the global financial crisis but the immediate hit to activity and jobs in the first half of this year will be worse", said Brian Coulton, Fitch's chief economist.The spread of the pandemic and the actions necessary to control it mean that we now have to incorporate full-scale lockdowns across Europe and the US (and many other countries) in our baseline forecasts. This was not the assumption used in our March 2020 GEO forecast. There are many moving parts, but we now judge that lockdowns could reduce GDP across the EU and US by 7% to 8%, or 28% to 30% annualised, in 2nd Quarter of 2020. This is an unprecedented peacetime one-quarter fall in GDP and is similar to what we now estimate occurred in China in 1st quarter of 2020.As a matter of perspective, the 2008 “subprime” crisis generated a drop of 6% in GDP and necessitated two stimulus packages, totalling nearly $1 trillion during 2008 and 2009 while the European Central Bank and the Bank of England followed suit with 1,5 trillion in stimulus. This however left the countries involved with unprecedented debt levelsOn the assumption that the health crisis is broadly contained by the second half of the year there should be a decent sequential recovery in activity as lockdowns are removed, some spending is re-profiled from 1H20, inventories are rebuilt and policy stimulus takes effect. But this has to be set against the many factors amplifying the depth of the dislocation, including job losses, capex cuts, commodity price shocks and the rout in financial markets."Our baseline forecast does not see GDP reverting to its pre-virus levels until late 2021 in the US and Europe," said Coulton.The direct impacts of lockdown policies on activity are being amplified through multiple channels. Most noticeable has been the dramatic fallout in the labour market, particularly in the US and Canada, where weekly data for new unemployment benefit claims have smashed all records. Our annual unemployment forecasts for developed countries have been pushed sharply higher across the board and we expect US unemployment to peak at 10% in 2Q20 with 10 million job losses. Companies are also likely to slash capital expenditure and consumers will pare back sharply on discretionary spending. This will be exacerbated by the collapse in equity prices.Rising corporate and emerging market bond yields are tightening global financing conditions and the strengthening of the dollar and falling commodity prices will add further headwinds to emerging market growth. Our 2020 oil price forecast (Brent annual average) has been lowered again to USD 35 per barrel. Capital outflows and limited social safety nets are further pressuring economic conditions in emerging markets.Huge fiscal stimulus packages have been announced in many countries worth 10% of GDP in the US and about 5% in Germany and the UK.Russia’s economy will contract by 1% in 2020, according to the latest forecast by the widely respected Bank of Finland Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT), due to notably lower commodity prices and a weakened outlook for the global economy.Russia started this year with an official forecast for 1.9% growth. But the double whammy of an oil price shock following “OPEC plus” production cut deal collapsed on March 6th closely followed by an escalating coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic that has brought the global economy to a standstill will hurt the Russian economy.Former Finance Minister and Audit Chamber head Alexei Kudrin, who is a widely respected authority on Russia’s economy, warned that if oil prices fall and stay low then the slowdown will be deeper and longer.While China’s economy is slowly restarting, major European economies are in turmoil and the United States is still in the early stages of ramping up its response with unprecedented fiscal measures. China will likely struggle to find enough customers across the West, and emerging markets elsewhere are simply not large enough to compensate. Affected sectors include automobiles, as major Western companies have closed down production, and communications equipment, as supply chains have been disrupted.The World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO) published on March 27 a report predicting that the crisis will cause international tourist arrivals to fall by between 20 percent and 30 percent in 2020 from last year's total of 1.5 billion tourist arrivals, leading to a loss of 300-450 billion U.S. dollars in international tourist receipts and hit the small and medium-sized companies that make up 80 percent of all businesses in the sector.The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said in a recent report that the COVID-19 pandemic may bring a 30-40 percent drop in global foreign direct investment (FDI) flows during 2020 and 2021.To sum the forecasts we are looking at a recession across the developed world. Even China, assuming it manages to completely eradicate Covid-19, will see a serious down turn as a result of its exports’ collapse. In order to alleviate the worst, these countries will have to “print money”, increasing their debt levels and driving world wide interest rates up.B) The impact on Turkeya) the pandemic’s direct costs to the economyWhile Europe and the USA have just decided stimulus packages amounting between 6% and 10% of their GDP respectively, to face direct consequences of the pandemic, the Turkish government does not have the funds it requires to hold back the tide of the coronavirus pandemic and is asking for public donations to stem the issue, DW Türkçe reported.While Turkey is expected to take additional measures set by the government to stimulate the economy, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has sparked controversy with the aid campaign he announced on Monday, DW Türkçe said.The government, which used Treasury resources in 2019, no longer has resources, DW Türkçe said, citing economist and author Mustafa Sönmez.Sönmez said Turkey’s finances should be transparent to explain the economic package, like other countries do."Why doesn't the (ruling Justice and Development Party) do this when the whole world is willing to do it? Because the AKP ran out of gunpowder in 2018-19. Treasury resources have been depleted so that the crisis in 2018 does not get deeper," he said, adding that the only move the government can take now is to rein in the budget deficit.There is no other solution other than for the Central Bank to print money, Sönmez said.The Turkish lira hit record lows in 2018, following a diplomatic row between Ankara and Washington over the almost two year detention of an American pastor. Turkey has been facing difficulties in repaying its foreign currency-denominated debts ever since.The macroeconomic indicators, especially the budget deficit, already at drastic points before the pandemic grew enough to threaten the Turkish economy, said Altınbaş University economics professor Hayri Kozanoğlu.“It is time to meet the most basic needs of citizens by applying to all public resources and overcome them with minimal human harm, leaving aside the concerns of whether the budget deficit increases or inflation jumps," he said.Kozanoğlu believes those who manage Turkish economy have yet to realise the magnitude of the situation. Sonmez said government considers the pandemic issue a “short-term storm" to ride out.A surge in Turkey’s short-term borrowing masked a drop in the country’s net foreign currency reserves to just $1.5 billion last month, said the Financial Times.New data released on Friday raised serious concerns about Turkey’s ability to protect its economy and tackle any large declines in the value of the lira during the coronavirus outbreak, the FT said.At the end of last month, the Turkish Central Bank sharply increased its borrowing through short-term swap operations - which it uses to exchange lira with local banks in return for dollars - to $25.9 billion. In the latest TCB report, Current Account recorded a deficit of 1.8 USD bn in Jan 2020When Turkey’s net foreign assets - a sum reached by subtracting foreign currency liabilities from assets - of $27.4 billion were deducted from short term borrowing, the figure left just $1.5 billion of net foreign currency reserves.Turkey’s net foreign currency reserve level “is not sufficient to enable the central bank to make a sustained defence of the currency,” Paul Gamble, head of emerging Europe sovereign ratings at Fitch, told the FT.Turkish GDP which had dropped by 10% as an indirect result of the “Subprime Crisis”in 2009, recovered to peak at 950,5 billion USD in 2013 before declining to 772,2 in 2019.This means that a conservative stimulus package equivalent to 6% of GDP would amount to $ 46 bln USD or ₺312 bln which unfortunately aren’t available and need to borrowed.Last month, Turkey unveiled a relief package worth 100 billion Turkish liras ($15.4 billion) -- the Economic Stability Shield -- to limit the economic fallout from COVID-19.As Fitch forecasts the eurozone to shrink by 4.2% this year, Turkey's net exports will have a negative impact on GDP growth this year,"this is likely to outweigh the benefits to the Turkish economy from lower imports and any potential relocation of export capacity," Douglas Winslow from Fitch, told Anadolu Agency.b) economic after shocks linked to recessionThe recession hitting Turkey’s export customers, sources of Foreign Direct Investment and Tourism will also have an impact on earnings and foreign currency reserves.Using data for 38 countries which experienced a banking crisis, they find that financial crises had a disproportionately negative impact on sectors that rely more on external sources of finance if they are located in countries with developed financial systems. For instance, in a country experiencing a banking crisis, a sector at the 75th percentile of external dependence and located in a country at the 75th percentile of private credit to GDP would experience a 1.6 per cent greater contraction in growth in value-added between the crisis and precrisis period compared with a sector at the 25th percentile of external dependence and private credit to GDPTurkey shipped US$171.1 billion worth of goods around the globe in 2019.Turkish Statistical Institute on Jan. 31 announced that the country welcomed 44,6 million foreign visitors last year, generating an income of $34 bln in foreign currencies. The nationalities of foreign visitors, Russia took first place with 15.6 percent -- some 7 million visitors -- over the same period, followed by Germany (11.2 percent or 5 million) and Bulgaria (6 percent or 2.7 million).Foreign Direct Investment to Turkey reached 11 bln $ in 2019 having declined by 75% since 2015.Hence foreign currency inflows totalled to 216 bln USD in 2019.The most conservatives estimates will show a decline of 6% in exports, 40% in FDI and 90% in tourism which translates in a compound 24% decline in foreign currencies.In March, Turkey’s exports fell 17.8% compared to the same month last year while imports grew 3.1% on an annual basis. Foreign trade Minister Pekcan claimed that as the government they had taken all the necessary measures to support exports as she was pointing at ease of credit lines, yet the problem seems to be demand from Turkey’s main export partner, the EU.With the expected strengthening of the US dollar, credit rating lowering (borrowing becoming more expensive) and a sharp increase in unemployment it is unknown how much the Tl will depreciate. This depreciation will have far reaching effects as private borrowing and bonds will become more expensive to reimburse. Vital activities relying on imports are also liable to be hit like agricultural output relying on imported chemicals, as noticed during the last Tl depreciation.According to Atila Yesilada, Turkey’s currency closed the week at 6.73, at levels last touched during the worst of the 2018 currency crisis, as the coronavirus pandemic began weighing on manufacturing and trade. An ultra-loose monetary policy and domestic investors lacking confidence in Erdogan’s ability to manage the health crisis also add to pressures on the TL. Further weakness would boost inflation as well as dealing another blow to already much damaged corporate balance sheets. With the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) running out of Foreign Currency reserves, policy options are limited: Capital controls or an application to the IMF?March cash deficit of the Treasury soared to a record monthly high of TL40.5 bn, as dollar/TL traded up to 6.78 on Wednesday, despite state bank Foreign Currency sales of $400 mn over the last two business days.As a 2nd pandemic wave seems inevitable in the fall, it will also require a 2nd wave of confinement before a world wide vaccination campaign may eradicate the virus. This in turn means that the recession will most probably rage till early 2021.So personally I not only think that human and economic outlooks are bleak, the potential for social and political disruption is enormous. Expect chaos and power grabs, Viktor Orban is showing the way.I sincerely hope I’m wrong.https://www.fitchratings.com/research/fund-asset-managers/fitch-ratings-updates-2020-sector-outlooks-to-reflect-coronavirus-impact-27-03-2020European economy devastated by pandemic as COVID-19 cases well pass 500,000Turkey | DataThe Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Industry Growth

Is politics in India stooping to an all-time low with the recent incident of CM Mamata Banerjee being attacked by goons in Nandigram in 2021?

Please don’t blame all India politics. Politics is dirty, but it is dirtiest in Bengal only. And it has been so for last 40 years at least. Bengal has seen the highest number of political murder over last 40 years.The violence pre & post 2019 general election in West Bengal is known to all. Reports of the National Crime Records Bureau reveal that in the 18 years between 1999 and 2016, on an average West Bengal witnessed 20 political murders every year. The highest was in 2009 when 50 murders were motivated by political reasons. This was followed by 2000, 2010 and 2011, each of which saw 38 political murders. I am afraid that 2021 assembly election could see the worst in Bengal.West Bengal has a history of poll related violence, right from the CPIM days. Ex CM Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee in a statement laid on the table of the West Bengal Legislative Assembly made the following disclosure for the year 2009 only.The figures are as below:(i) murder—2284(ii) political murder—26(iii) rape—2516(iv) outraging modesty—3013(v) torture on brides—17,571(vi) death/murder due to Maoist activities—134(Source: Dainik Stateamsn, Kolkata, July 16, 2010)A comment on the veracity of these figures is necessary. He has shown political murder as only 26. This figure is suspect. Between 1977 and 1996, the rate of annual political murder on an average was 1473. To come to a reliable figure of murders between 1997 and 2009, we have taken the annual average of 2284 to come to a total figure of 27,408. Thus between 1977 and 2009 the total number of murder was 28,000 + 27,408 = 55,408. Assuming that there was at least one killer per murder, the number would be over 55,000. With all these murderers roaming about freely, one could assume what is situation of law & order in WB. Things are not very rosy even today. Possibility are there that these murderers are being employed by either party to take control of ground situation.Sometime back BJP president J P Nadda was attacked, which Mamata Banerjee termed as a well managed drama. The BJP, which had blamed the Trinamool after its chief JP Nadda's convoy came under attack in Bengal in December, called today's incident a political stunt by the ruling party. It will be difficult to ascertain the facts. Anything is possible. Its not clear how could 4–5 people push her when she is very well protected, how could her security be breached?. As off now Mamata is in hospital under medical supervision. It is possible that she has been genuinely attacked, if so its a serious issue. But It would be foolish of any political party to stage an attack on her. An attack on her would only help her to secure more vote. So actually you would never know what has happened.

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