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Source:www.airporttechnology.comLater this year, airport operators will be required to assess and report runway conditions using a new methodology developed by the International Civil Aviation Organisation. Here is a look at what compliance might mean for hubs, as well as some of the challenges around implementation.The ICAO has developed a new methodology for runway monitoring. Credit: Lucash (via Wikimedia Commons).Sign up here for GlobalData's free bi-weekly Covid-19 report on the latest information your industry needs to know.As of November, all airport operators will be required to monitor their runways more closely using a new standardised methodology.Developed by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), the package, known as the global reporting format (GRF), is aimed at harmonising the assessment and reporting of runway conditions.Along with controlled flight into terrain (an accident in which a plane under a pilot’s control is unintentionally flown into the ground, a mountain, water or obstacle) and loss of control in-flight, runway safety is one of ICAO’s top three safety priorities.Runway excursions – incidents in which aircraft veer off the landing strip, either on take-off or landing – are a particular concern. In February, a flight operated by a budget Turkish carrier Pegasus Airlines slipped off a wet runway at Istanbul’s Sabiha Gokcen airport on landing, killing three passengers and injuring scores of others onboard.Thankfully, excursion-related fatalities are rare, but excursions themselves are common, occurring around three times a month, according to ICAO figures.Roughly 90% of such incidents occur on ‘contaminated’ runways – where the runway is slippery as a result of wetness, snow, slush or ice. This would suggest, as pointed out at a recent IACO assembly by Paul Adamson, the agency’s airport operations and operability officer, that “many of these excursions happen in a very focused period of time”.“This methodology is very simple and based upon operational need,” said Adamson in his presentation on GRF. “Going on accidents we’ve had in the past, we know that we need to have this common methodology and common language around the globe and air traffic network.”Getting ready: Wellington Airport heeds ICAO’s rallying callICAO used the aforementioned conference, held in Montreal in October, to highlight GRF’s importance. Describing the methodology as an “important runway-related safety implementation”, Steve Creamer, director of the ICAO’s Air Navigation Bureau, urged airports – along with states, aviation authorities, airlines and service providers – to “start preparing”.“Sensors can capture reams of data, including information regarding temperature, moisture and ice conditionse to carry out remote inspections.”GRF’s beginnings date back to 2004, when runway friction was first included in ICAO’s aerodromes panel programme. This was followed up in 2008 with the establishment of a friction task force, which came up with the idea of a globally harmonised methodology for runway surface condition assessment and reporting. In 2016, GRF was formally adopted by the ICAO Council’s 36 member states.One airport that has been quick out of the blocks to heed this call has been New Zealand’s Wellington Airport. In February, it announced it had become the first hub in the southern hemisphere to comply with GRF, following the installation of a runway monitoring system and real-time sensors.The sensors – nine in total – can capture reams of data, including information regarding temperature, moisture and ice conditions, which is then fed back to the airport’s new integrated operations centre. This, in turn, enables clearer decision-making and smoother lines of communications between airport personnel, air traffic control and airlines.It is hoped the technology, developed in partnership with MetOffice – New Zealand’s state-run meteorological service – will support pilots in the more accurate calculation of their aircrafts’ landing and take-off performance. Wellington has also installed sensors on its runway inspection vehicles, which can further monitor conditions on the ground.State responsibility: Implementing GRF in lockstepWhen it comes to planning for GRF, the responsibility falls on the shoulders of states. For their benefit, ICAO has compiled a checklist, which includes contacting airports, providing training and building awareness.“ICAO has compiled a checklist, which includes contacting airports, providing training and building awareness.”States are also expected to work closely alongside ICAO’s regional offices to help with planning. According to ICAO’s Adamson, the hope is that states will plan and implement GRF in close harmony, “so we don’t have different methodologies being used in neighbouring states”.Tech players and service providers could be set to capitalise on GRF’s rollout. In March, Vaisala, a Finnish weather measurement group, unveiled a new piece of kit that is compliant with the ICAO standard. Like the MetOffice technology, Vaisala Mobile GRF/TALPA Reporter uses sensors to report on runway conditions in real-time, with data converted into the text-based format required by ICAO. According to Vaisala, the technology can be applied to any fleet vehicle.Tough deadline: Will airports be ready come November?Back in New Zealand, the country’s Civil Aviation Authority is reported to be working with the country’s other airports in complying with the new standard. But as the aviation industry continues to contend with the devastating effects of the coronavirus outbreak, it is unclear how other the 40,000-plus airports belonging to the ICAO network might follow Wellington’s lead.“ICAO has been forced to cancel its regional seminars on GRF for the foreseeable future.”While some training materials are available online, ICAO has been forced to cancel its regional seminars on GRF for the foreseeable future. It is yet to put out any statement deferring the November 2020 deadline.

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In 2050, Christianity will be near its extinction in much of the Western world. It will not be dead, though. It will still thrive in Sub-Saharan Africa and South America. But let me venture into a more detailed analysis.PEW RESEARCH CENTER DATA AND GENERAL TRENDSThe following graphics are the forecasts published by the Pew Research Center about the growth of religious and irreligious populations worldwide between 2010–2100.Source: The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections, 2010-2050.However, personally I do not trust the studies of the Pew Research Center. Their studies are extremely generic and their calculations are purely mathematical, and do not take into account the many unpredictable variables which shape cultures and religions. Moreover, the Pew Research Center is financed, for its studies on religion, by the John Templeton Foundation, which is a Christian organisation.Indeed, their predictions about the development of religions in Europe and Anglophone countries have already been proven wrong.Pew’s forecast for France: Religions in France | French Religion Data | GRFThey started with Christians at 63% in 2010 and predicted a decline to 58% by 2020. However, 2016 data for France show that Christianity has already declined to 51%. Religion in France - Wikipedia.Pew’s forecast for Australia: Religions in Australia | PEW-GRFThey started with Christians at 67% in 2001, which was consistent with the census of that year, and predicted a decline to 61% by 2020. However, the 2016 census has shown that Christians have already declined to 52%. Religion in Australia - Wikipedia.Data for other European and Anglophone countries have the same problems: Basically they have already been proven wrong; the decline of Christianity is much faster than what calculated by the Pew Research Center.The following graphics are the representation of data from censuses and surveys in some European and Anglophone countries. They belie the forecasts of the Pew Research Center and show that Christianity may be declining at a much faster rate than what forecasted by the center.Sources: Local censuses and surveys summarised in Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.In the United States there are similar trends, though belated compared to those in Europe.The trends show a progressive decline of Christianity and rise of irreligion since the 1960s—1970s. If the trends will continue, Christianity will likely be the religion of less than 50% of the population within 20 years.CHRISTIANITY IS QUICKLY FADING AWAY IN EUROPE, A PROCESS WHICH IS THE CULMINATION OF A LONGTIME TREND OF LOSS OF MEANINGChristianity is ultimately a declining religion, in Europe, and all over the developed world (including some non-Western countries, cf. China hereunder). I think that the reason is that it has lost any sense in modernity and is no longer able to compete with the forces at play in societies. Its decline is inevitable, and it will likely be replaced by a new religious synthesis able to answer to the need for meaning of modernised societies. In Europe, for instance, we are witnessing the rise of many Neo-Pagan and neo-indigenous religious movements which try to respond to the need for new identities and new rooting, but also to the spread of Buddhism and other Asian religious philosophies.Traditional churches in Europe are declining at a pace of more than 1% per year. Let’s take Iceland as an example, assuming that it represents a “small Europe”:Source: Statistics Iceland - Populations by religious and life stance organizations 1998-2018-PX-Web.At the same time, new nexuses of meaning are growing in the country:Heathenism — official website: Ásatrúarfélagið.Zuism — official website: Zúistar á Íslandi.CHRISTIANITY IS DECLINING IN CHINA, THE WORLD’S LARGEST COUNTRY AND FUTURE FIRST SUPERPOWERChristianity is declining even in China, despite there is plenty of fake news articles online from American missionary organisations (and other agencies which took part in the attempted colonisation of the country in the 19th and early 20th century) claiming that there is an upsurge of Christians there.About these fake data: <<There has been much speculation by some Western authors about the number of Christians in China. Chris White, in a 2017 work for the Max Planck Institute for the Study of Religious and Ethnic Diversity of the Max Planck Society, criticises the data and narratives put forward by these authors. He notices that these authors work in the wake of a "Western evangelical bias" reflected in the coverage carried forward by popular media, especially in the United States, which rely upon a "considerable romanticisation" of Chinese Christians. Their data are mostly ungrounded or manipulated through undue interpretations, as "survey results do not support the authors' assertions".>>White, Chris (2017). “Counting Christians in China: A critical reading of Rodney Stark’s A star in the East: The rise of Christianity in China”. MMG Working Paper 17-03. Göttingen: Max Planck Institute for the Study of Religious and Ethnic Diversity. ISSN 2192-2357.The following table shows the distribution of religions by age group according to the 2012 sampled surveys of the Chinese Family Panel Studies. As you can see, Christianity, while being a small minority in all age groups, is more popular among the elderly (2.9%), while decreases among the youth (1.5%). So, Christianity is declining among the younger generations of Chinese, and even by a significant percentage (1.4%, which corresponds to about 20 million people).Source for the data: Wenzel-Teuber, Katharina (2017). “Statistics on Religions and Churches in the People’s Republic of China”. Religions & Christianity in Today's China. (VII) 2: 26-53. China Zentrum e.V. ISSN: 2192-9289.IN BACKWARD COUNTRIES OF THE THIRD WORLD, FOURTH-WAVE PROTESTANTISM IS GROWING, BUT IT MIGHT BE NOTHING MORE THAN AN EMPTY BUBBLEWorldwide, fourth-wave Protestantism (the “Fourth Awakening”), i.e. Pentecostalism and Evangelicalism, is the only type of Christianity that is growing, almost exclusively in the Third World, while the others are rapidly collapsing.An exemplary case is Brazil, where fourth-wave Protestantism has been growing by winning over the population of believers of the Catholic Church.However, I think that even the growing movements of fourth-wave Protestantism are nothing but a further stage in the death of Christianity: They represent the stage of decomposition after the rigor mortis. They are like a disintegrating body; these churches grow, reproduce and die in an unorganic and unfinalistic way, much like decomposing agents in a dead body. They do not represent the rise of a new religious culture.Moreover, I think that as long as the developing nations of the Third World will become more developed, with widespread welfare systems and education, national consciousness will grow and Christianity will be gradually rejected as it is happening in the developed First World. The Third World’s rejection of Christianity might happen in an even more violent and rapid way than what is happening in Europe, since Christianity carries the burden of being the religion imposed on those peoples and countries by European colonialism (I think of Sub-Saharan Africa, and parts of South-East Asia, and possibly even South America); as these countries will become wealthy, national cultures and political stances will revive and strengthen themselves, posing a challenge to the former religion of the colonisers.Using another metaphor, this final wave of Christianity is like an empty bubble. At the moment it is swelling, but it will reach a point when it will burst in a flash and disappear without leaving a trace.