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Depending on assumptions (and how much you believe published statics), China's total GDP will probably overtake USA around 2018. It might be a little later eg 2021.There is a significant risk to China's growth if real estate bubble bursts which could affect things seriously (thanks to Paul Denlinger for links) - although that may hurt US economy too so I don't know much it delays the overtaking?It is very difficult to come up with a story that would make the over-taking as late as 2030 (Shannon Larson). eg if China GDP growth collapsed from >9% to 5%, and USA accelerated to an unprecedented 4%, it still happens by 2025.There is calculator on The Economist that lets you plug in your own values to see.Updated: a new version on The Economist as of Dec 27th, 2011http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2010/12/save_date?fsrc=scn/fb/wl/dc/datinggameOur best guess for the next decade is that annual GDP growth averages 7.75% in China and 2.5% in America, inflation rates average 4% and 1.5%, and the yuan appreciates by 3% a year. Plug in these numbers and China will overtake America in 2018. Alternatively, if China’s real growth rate slows to an average of only 5%, then (leaving the other assumptions unchanged) it would not become number one until 2021. What do you think?This is a year earlier than when they posted this last year, reflecting financial crisis. One could argue that US debt & political deadlock will not help.I suspect a lot of people's 'gut feel' estimates overlook the importance of compound interestOn a percapita basis it will take much longer (Kaiser Kuo Shannon Larson), but I was staggered to read that the richest regions in China have already overtaken the poorest regions in many developed countries (UK, Germany, etc) and will start overtaking US states (on a per capita basis !) by 2015.It is astonisinghly fast that half of America will have a lower per capita GDP than Shanghai or Beijing within ten years.GDP per head at PPP over a quarter of regions in Britain and Italy and one-tenth of those in Germany will this year have a lower GDP per head than the municipality of Shanghai.All the American states remain richer today, but Shanghai looks set to overtake Mississippi by 2015; within ten years half of all the states, including Florida, Michigan and Ohio, could have a GDP per head lower than Shanghai and Beijing.http://www.economist.com/node/18332880?story_id=18332880More broadly:A broader analysis by The Economist finds that China has already overtaken America on well over half of 21 different indicators, including manufacturing output, exports and fixed investment. The chart below predicts when China will surpass America on the rest. By 2014, for example, it could be the world’s biggest importer and have the largest retail sales. America still tops a few league tables by a wider margin. Its stockmarket capitalisation is four times bigger than China’s, and it spends five times as much on defence. Even though China’s defence budget is growing faster, on recent growth rates America’s will remain larger until 2025.

Trump’s Sleight of Hand: Shouting Fraud, Pocketing Donors’ Cash for FutureWith breathless, often misleading appeals, the former president promised small donors that he was using the money to fight the election results, but in fact stored much of it for future use.Protesters outside the Supreme Court in December. Many Republican grass-roots donors were drawn in by former President Donald J. Trump’s false promises and “stop the steal” message after the November election.Credit...Anna Moneymaker for The New York TimesBy Shane Goldmacher and Rachel ShoreyPublished Feb. 1, 2021Updated Feb. 4, 2021Former President Donald J. Trump and the Republican Party leveraged false claims of voter fraud and promises to overturn the election to raise more than a quarter-billion dollars in November and December as hundreds of thousands of trusting supporters listened and opened their wallets.But the Trump campaign spent only a tiny fraction of its haul on lawyers and other legal bills related to those claims. Instead, Mr. Trump and the G.O.P. stored away much of the money — $175 million or so — even as they continued to issue breathless, aggressive and often misleading appeals for cash that promised it would help with recounts, the rooting out of election fraud and even the Republican candidates’ chances in the two Senate runoff races in Georgia.What fraction of the money Mr. Trump did spend after the election was plowed mostly into a public-relations campaign and to keep his perpetual fund-raising machine whirring, with nearly $50 million going toward online advertising, text-message outreach and a small television ad campaign.Only about $10 million spent by Mr. Trump’s campaign went to actual legal costs, according to an analysis of new Federal Election Commission filings from Nov. 4 through the end of the year.Far more is now sitting in the coffers of a new political action committee, Save America, that Mr. Trump formed after the election and that provides him a fat war chest he can use to pay advisers, fund travel and maintain a political operation. Mr. Trump’s new PAC had $31 million in the bank at the end of 2020 and an estimated $40 million more sitting in a shared party account waiting to be transferred into it.TRACKING VIRAL MISINFORMATIONEvery day, Times reporters chronicle and debunk false and misleading information that is going viral online.Mr. Trump’s extraordinary success raising money came mostly from grass-roots and online contributors drawn to his lie that the election result would soon be somehow wiped away. Only about a dozen donors gave $25,000 or more to one of Mr. Trump’s committees after Nov. 24. (The lone six-figure donation came from Elaine J. Wold, a major Republican donor in Florida.)“Sophisticated donors are not dumb,” said Dan Eberhart, a major Republican donor who has supported Mr. Trump in the past. “They could see through what Trump was trying to do.”A spokesman for Mr. Trump did not respond to a request for comment.One of the few five-figure checks deposited in December came from the National Fraternal Order of Police PAC. But its executive director, James Pasco, said the group had actually issued the $25,000 donation in early November. He said he did not know why it hadn’t been cashed until December.“The optics of this are terrible,” Mr. Pasco lamented. “We in no way questioned the election at any point, or were involved in an effort to forestall the results.”Still, many Republican grass-roots donors were drawn in by Mr. Trump’s false promises and “stop the steal” message. He fomented intense opposition to the inauguration of President Biden, which eventually culminated in the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol as flag-waving Trump supporters violently sought to disrupt the certification of Mr. Biden’s victory.All told, more than two million donations flowed to the former president and his shared committees with the Republican National Committee from Nov. 24 to the end of the year. Mr. Trump’s fund-raising did stall drastically after the Electoral College certified Mr. Biden as the winner on Dec. 14.In the two weeks leading up to that day, Mr. Trump and the R.N.C. had raised an average of $2.9 million every day online; in the two weeks after, the average was $1.2 million, according to records from WinRed, the Republican digital donation platform.Despite that slowdown, Mr. Trump still outpaced the online fund-raising of the two Republican senators, Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue, who were competing in the Georgia runoff elections that would determine control of the chamber in the last 39 days of the year, which the most recent federal filings cover.Mr. Trump and his shared committees with the R.N.C. raised $80 million online during that period; Ms. Loeffler and Mr. Perdue combined for closer to $75 million. Both Senate candidates lost.“Absolutely that money was misdirected,” Mr. Eberhart said. “I would have loved to see half that money go to the Georgia Senate races.”Mr. Trump’s campaign appears to have contributed nothing to the Georgia races, despite fund-raising appeals that emphasized the importance of the races; the R.N.C. reported $7.9 million in independent expenditures aiding Ms. Loeffler and Mr. Perdue (the party says it spent $20 million over all, including moving staff members there and transfers of funds).A host of corporations and major donors mostly ignored Mr. Trump in the weeks after the election and poured money instead into the Georgia runoffs. Donations included a $5 million check from the American Petroleum Institute and hundreds of thousands more from oil giants like Chevron and Valero, which were fearful of the impact of a Democratic-controlled Senate.Mr. Trump spoke at a campaign rally in Valdosta, Ga., in December. His campaign appears to have contributed nothing to the Georgia Senate runoffs.Credit...Doug Mills/The New York TimesKenneth Griffin, the chief executive of the financial firm Citadel, donated $10 million to the main Senate Republican super PAC in November. Mr. Griffin’s firm now faces scrutiny for some of its investments related to the GameStop stock that soared last month in a Reddit-driven populist revolt.Stephen A. Schwarzman, the chief executive of the private equity giant Blackstone, who has known Mr. Trump for decades and donated to him in the past, said publicly by mid-November that Mr. Biden had most likely won. Around that time, he gave $15 million to the same Senate Republican super PAC focused on Georgia.“The outcome is very certain today, and the country should move on,” Mr. Schwarzman said in late November.Mr. Trump did incur some legal costs, though there were no disclosed payments to some of the best-known figures in his failed legal fight, including Sidney Powell, the lawyer who spread conspiracy theories and held one news conference in the lobby of the R.N.C., and Rudolph W. Giuliani, the former president’s personal lawyer.Mr. Giuliani’s firm was reimbursed for $63,423 in travel in mid-December. (Another firm run by an ally of Mr. Giuliani, the former New York police commissioner Bernard B. Kerik, was also paid $20,130 in travel reimbursements; Mr. Trump pardoned Mr. Kerik last year for his 2010 conviction on eight felonies.)All told, the Trump campaign paid more than a dozen law firms, including $1.6 million to Kasowitz Benson Torres, more than $500,000 to Jones Day and about $600,000 to Dechert. The law firm of Kurt Hilbert, who was on Mr. Trump’s phone call pressuring the Republican secretary of state in Georgia, Brad Raffensperger, to “find” votes to overturn the election outcome, was paid more than $480,000. A $3 million payment went to the Wisconsin Elections Commission to pay for a recount.One major Republican donor, C. Boyden Gray, who contributed more than $2 million to Republicans in the 2020 cycle, also provided legal consulting for Mr. Trump, earning $114,000.The Trump operation continued to spend on fund-raising, pouring millions into a secretive limited liability company, American Made Media Consultants, for online and text-message advertising. Family members of Mr. Trump and Vice President Mike Pence once served on the board of the company, which had more than $700 million in spending flow through it during the 2020 campaign.In the postelection period, more than $63 million in spending flowed through the company from committees linked to Mr. Trump.The Republican National Committee ended the year with more than $80 million in the bank after the fund-raising blitz, and the party is entitled to a share of the $63 million more in two shared accounts with Mr. Trump. Per an agreement, the R.N.C. collected 25 cents for every dollar Mr. Trump raised online through their joint account in December.One of Mr. Trump’s shared committees with the R.N.C. spent nearly $235,000 on books through a company, Reagan Investments, that has also done work for a PAC controlled by Senator Ted Cruz of Texas. The Trump campaign offered signed copies of a book by Mr. Cruz last fall to donors who gave $75 or more.And, as they have since the beginning of his candidacy in 2015, Mr. Trump’s campaign accounts patronized his businesses in the postelection period.The Trump Victory committee paid $34,000 to the Trump Hotel Collection in its final 2020 filing. The same committee also paid a Trump-owned limited liability company that operates a private plane, DT Endeavor, $39,200 on Nov. 24.Another Trump campaign committee paid $75,000 in rent to the Trump Tower building in December.Trump, the Political Parties and Campaign FinanceShane Goldmacher is a national political reporter and was previously the chief political correspondent for the Metro Desk. Before joining The Times, he worked at Politico, where he covered national Republican politics and the 2016 presidential campaign. @ShaneGoldmacherRachel Shorey is a software engineer in the Interactive News department. She works primarily on large data collections. @rachel_shorey

No, the reverse as rain like snow is evidence of falling temperatures. The contrasts between hot and cold weather are surely droughts and floods respectively. The earth is cooling and floods are increasing. This evidence of colder weather without any rise in temperature beyond statistical error corroborates the reality that the UN alarmists have been wrong pitching a man-made global warming crisis.It is not disputed that we are in an ice age from 2.5 million years ago so have temperatures changed upward enough that we break out into the nest global warming period?An ice age is a long period of reduction in the temperature of the Earth's surface and atmosphere, resulting in the presence or expansion of continental and polar ice sheets and alpine glaciers. Earth is currently in the Quaternary glaciation, known in popular terminology as the Ice Age.[1] WikipediaWhile we do not have all the answers to what caused the ice age and what triggers a change of climate from warmer interglacial to much colder glaciation, we do know to be wary of longer winters, shorter springs and cooler summers. There is good reason. Snowfall has a strong cooling effect on the climate.NO CLIMATE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE.Temperature increases over the past 140 years at 0.8*C are too small and within the range of natural variability to constitute human made global warming. Too much rain means too little solar radiation to keep us warm.NASA Goddard Institute finds warming of 0.8* Celsius (1.4* Fahrenheit) since 1880. This means an average of only 0.0175 degree Celsius temperature increase annually. This minute amount is within the statistical error of data.Weather by itself cannot be evidence of global warming/ climate unless there is statistical record stretching far enough back to account for thousands of years or at least for centuries.If for example we have declining temperatures from the past 7000 years then the onus to rebut this cooling and declare a new weather pattern of warming that amounts to ‘climate change’ is high and has not happened since our industrialization.Holocene climatic optimum - WikipediaThis graph is taken from Wikipedia. It shows eight different reconstructions of Holocene temperature. The thick black line is the average of these. Time progresses from left to right.On this graph the Stone Age is shown only about one degree warmer than present day, but most sources mention that Scandinavian Stone Age was about 2-3 degrees warmer than the present; this need not to be mutually excluding statements, because the curve reconstructs the entire Earth's temperature, and on higher latitudes the temperature variations were greater than about equator.Some reconstructions show a vertical dramatic increase in temperature around the year 2000, but it seems not reasonable to the author, since that kind of graphs cannot possibly show temperature in specific years, it must necessarily be smoothed by a kind of mathematical rolling average, perhaps with periods of hundred years, and then a high temperature in a single year, for example, 2004 will be much less visible.The trend seems to be that Holocene's highest temperature was reached in the Hunter Stone Age about 8,000 years before present, thereafter the temperature has generally been steadily falling, however, superimposed by many cold and warm periods, including the modern warm period.However, generally speaking, the Holocene represents an amazing stable climate, where the cooling through the period has been limited to a few degrees.History of Earth's ClimateEpic And Massive Flooding In Europe During The Little Ice AgePublished on June 24, 2016Written by http://iceagenow.orgKilled more than 500,000 people.Andrew McKillop has a new article posted at The Market Oracle. Here are some excerpts.This is the global cooling fearIntense flooding in the low countries of Europe became “darkly repetitive” during the Little Ice Age, writes McKillop. The cooling period lasted 450 years,For the Dutch, the Grote Mandrenke is nothing to do with Linux software, but means “The Great Drowning” and is named for the epic and massive flooding that occurred, more and more frequently in the Low Countries of Europe’s North Sea region as Europe’s Little Ice Age intensified.Grote Mandrenke flood killed at least 100 000Normal or predictable spring and autumn flooding was increasingly replaced by large-area and intense flooding, sometimes outside spring and autumn from about 1300, in recurring crises which lasted into the 18th century. In the Low Countries and across Europe, but also elsewhere, the cooling trend starting in the late 13th century became more intense. It brought long cold winters, heavy storms and floods, loss of coastal farmlands, and huge summer sandstorms in coastal areas further damaging agriculture. Climate historians estimate that major flooding on an unpredictable but increasingly frequent basis started as early as 1250. Extreme events like the Grote Mandrenke flood of 1362 which killed at least 100 000 people became darkly repetitive.Other giant floods probably killed 400 000Other giant floods in the region through the next 200 years probably killed a total of 400 000 persons in the coastlands of what is now Belgium, Germany and Holland. At the time, Europe’s population was at most a quarter of today’s, meaning that corrected for population size these were really catastrophic disasters. During this time, the Zuider Zee region of northern Holland was inundated and its former farmlands disappeared under water – for several centuries.Crop failures and faminesThe basic reasons was that the weather was getting colder, as well as more unpredictable. As the climate cooled, it also became wetter. Combined with the cold, this caused more crop failures and famines spread as the northern limit of farming retreated south. The start of the cooling – called Europe’s Little Ice Age by glaciologist Francois Matthes in 1939 – in the 13th century was in fact the start of a long, sometimes steep dip in temperatures that held sway on an unpredictable, on-and-off basis until at least the first decade of the 19th century. Overall, the cooling lasted about 450 years.Preceded by more than two centuries of much warmer more predictable weatherMaking things worse, the cooling had been preceded by more than two centuries of much warmer and better, more predictable weather. Farming moved northwards, seasons were predictable, food supplies had expanded. Europe’s population also grew, in some regions tripling in 200 years. The colonization of Greenland, which failed when the cooling intensified, was a well-known historical spinoff from the previous warming, but by the 16th century there was no trace of Europeans in Greenland. Only ruins of their farms and homes could be found, but with few or no tombstones dated beyond the early 15th century, leading to the theory that these early “Climate Refugees” packed their longboats and sailed south, to what is now the New England coast. Where they became easy prey for American Indian tribes along those coasts.And as more evidence shows that the Medieval Warm Period was no isolated event in Europe but was a global phenomenon, McKillop’s analysis takes on more immediate relevance:The climate historian Hubert H. Lamb in his 2002 book ‘Climate History and the Modern World’ dates the cooling to two main phases. The first leg of this change he places at about 1200-1400, but his second phase of about 1500-1825 which for some climate historians is Europe’s Little Ice Age, was marked by much steeper drops in average temperatures. Indicators used by Lamb and other climate historians like Emmanuel Leroy Ladrie and Wolfgang Behringer include food price peaks as cold summers followed cold and wet springs, with increasing examples of “climate wars”, such as Louis X’s Flanders campaign where the climate chilling was a sure factor in play.I fear that we’re headed into such a period of great cooling and repetitive catastrophic flooding right now.This while our leaders prattle on about global warming, leaving us almost totally unprepared.Andrew McKillop is former chief policy analyst, Division A Policy, DG XVII Energy, European Commission, and co-author of ‘The Doomsday Machine’, Palgrave Macmillan USA, 2012McKillop has more than 30 years experience in the energy, economic and finance domains. Trained at London UK’s University College, he has had specially long experience of energy policy, project administration and the development and financing of alternate energy. This included his role of in-house Expert on Policy and Programming at the DG XVII-Energy of the European Commission, Director of Information of the OAPEC technology transfer subsidiary, AREC and researcher for UN agencies including the ILO.https://principia-scientific.org/epic-and-massive-flooding-in-europe-during-the-little-ice-age/Featured snippet from the web“The stage is set for record flooding now through May.” According to the NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the April to June period will see above average precipitation in the majority of the country, increasing the flood risk, which could be further compounded by melting snow.Mar 22, 2019Our'Unprecedented' Spring Flood Season to Put 200 ... - Time Magazine#SpringOutlook 2019 is out today: Historic, widespread flooding to continue through May. Find map, highlights video & more athttps://bit.ly/2JqDsIG#FloodingThe continental United States just recorded its wettest 12-month period in recorded history, while also moving one step closer to being drought-free, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).April showers helped ease drought conditions further, with only 2 percent of the U.S. experiencing some level of drought.While the drought relief is welcome in some areas, the wet weather has resulted in disastrous flooding for many communities across the country.The rising floodwaters are contributing to an increase in flood fatalities in 2019. At least 10 deaths were attributed to flooding in May thus far, according to the National Weather Service.Flooding claims an average of 95 lives per year. Through the first five months of 2018, there were 19 flood-related deaths; so far in 2019 there have already been 44 fatalities.https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/wettest-12-months-on-record-leaves-us-nearly-drought-free-amid-rampant-flooding/70008265Drought and Climate ChangeCalifornia drought in 2016 -17 was not unusual for this desert region. However temperatures are decline with record breaking rain and snow.But the Alarmists including the National Geographic happily ignored history and wrongly predicted a ‘worsening drought’ in the decades ahead because of California. They said the drought could last another 200 years!. Here is a such a false view by the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions.Climate change increases the odds of worsening drought in many parts of the United States and the world in the decades ahead. Regions such as the U.S. Southwest will see increased heat, changing rainfall patterns and less snowpack contributing to drought conditions. Even in regions that may not see changes in precipitation, warmer temperatures can increase water demands and evaporation, putting greater stress on water supplies.Drought and Climate Change | Center for Climate and Energy SolutionsObama also jumped the gunThese many doom sayers were so anxious to prove the earth was warming up and fossil fuels were to blame they relied on the shoddy science of the UNIPCC to make wildly exaggerated predictions.What happened? The drought ended and California has experienced a deluge of record rain and snowfall since.Winter has come to California ... in May. Record rainfall, more snow on the wayBy HANNAH FRYMAY 17, 2019 | 11:00 AMA cyclist finds wet riding conditions at the Hjelte Sports Center in Encino on May 16. (Al Seib / Los Angeles Times)Southern California was hit by the wettest winter in years.The snowpack, an important measurement of the state’s water supply, looks great.And in mid-May — two months after the official end of winter — the rain and snow just keep coming.California was clobbered this week by another storm, which dumped snow on the Sierra and set rain records in the Southland.More winter conditions are on tap for parts of Northern California this weekend, and the National Weather Service predicts colder-than-average temperatures for the entire state next week.There also is a chance of more showers in Southern California in the coming days, which could bring up to half an inch of precipitation to some areas, according to the weather service.How unusual was the latest storm?Thursday’s front wasn’t just out of the norm, it was record-breaking, “clobbering” at least half a dozen rainfall tallies in Southern California including:—Downtown Los Angeles: 0.48 inches (previous record of 0.04 inches was set in 1996)—Burbank airport: 0.28 inches (previous record of 0.2 inches was set in 1995)— LAX: 0.29 inches (previous record of 0.05 inches was set in 1996)—Long Beach Airport: 0.25 inches (previous record of a trace amount was set in 2011)—Santa Ana: 0.22 inches (previous record of 0.12 inches was set in 1949)—Vista: 0.23 inches (previous record of 0.19 inches was set in 2011)The rain also tied three records in San Diego County, including at Oceanside Harbor, which received 0.13 inches of precipitation on Thursday, matching the record set in 1915.California snowfall is also at record levels.Our analysis of temperature histories depends on proxies and the history of drought and flooding is essential to know the past. The history of drought in the dirty thirties happened before significant industrialization or rising Co2 levels. This reality falsifies the alarmist hypothesis demonizing fossil fuels as creating a climate crisis of over heating. By contrast data shows close correlation between temperature and solar cycles [see graph above], and no correlation with the rise of Co2 emissions.Children of the DustWhat followed, however, when a decade-long drought hit in 1931, was interpreted as Biblical: a nexus of Old Testament-worthy plagues that left people of the Plains wondering if God had abandoned their country, reneging vengefully on the promise of man’s dominion. The loosened soil, now dry and free to blow with the winds, became massive dust storms that suffocated cattle and sickened children; there were swarms of pests—jackrabbits and grasshoppers—that consumed anything even marginally edible in their path; and, of course, without rain, absolutely nothing grew. Bereft of its grasses, the land was wrecked, not only unfarmable, but brutally inhospitable, with dirt drifts that could whip up and kill you.The alarmists mislead by downplaying the hotter temperatures after 1920 into the dirty thirties because this data does not advance their hypothesis that only with increasing Co2 did the world heat up.Science Newsfrom research organizationsNASA study finds 1934 had worst North American drought of last thousand yearsDate:October 14, 2014Source:NASASummary:A new study using a reconstruction of North American drought history over the last 1,000 years found that the drought of 1934 was the driest and most widespread of the last millennium. Using a tree-ring-based drought record from the years 1000 to 2005 and modern records, scientists found the 1934 drought was 30 percent more severe than the runner-up drought (in 1580) and extended across 71.6 percent of western North America.NASA study finds 1934 had worst North American drought of last thousand yearsIn light of the earth cooling as evidenced by longer winters and shorter spring weather with heavy rain storms and massive snowfall it is time to abandon Al Gore’s false and inconvenient truth. Surely it is madness to follow his harmful plan with the Paris Accord to bring to pass a much a colder climate.Resilience is the path of safety and this means increased reliance on the proven value of fossil fuels as our most robust resource in times of severe weather.How did the alarmists like Al Gore and Obama get the climate crisis so wrong? The best answer is they neglected the power and influence of the sun.Piers Corbyn; “There is No Such Thing as Man-Made Climate Change”‘Never mind the heat, climate change is a hoax by gravy-train scientists'C02 has nothing to do with climate.The sun is best indicator of the weather.Piers Corbyn predicted Europe's winter of discontent. Astrophysicist and meteorologist, Piers Corbyn, has a prediction success rate of roughly 85%...better than any of the "man made" climate change activists and proponents in the field of climate science. He obtained a first-class honours degree in physics at Imperial College London....He's not your everyday weatherman: the conspicuously displayed photocopy of a check for £2,291 hanging on the wall. Unique among meteorologists, Corbyn bets on his forecasts. Unusual among bettors of any stripe, he wins regularly. The check on the wall is a payout from London bookmaker William Hill on one of their monthly bets. It is said book makers will not take his bets any longer for fear of losing. Corbyn is well known for his opposition to the idea of anthropogenic global warming. On his website http://www.weatheraction.com/ he writes about his views, which include the idea the that the world is experiencing cooling. He says proponents of "man made "climate change theory are using "junk" science and that their theory is "rubbish".Promoting very unsettled scienceThe climate changes, but direction and magnitude are still a source of disputeEarth Igloo Illustration by Greg Groesch/The Washington Times more >http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/jul/27/richard-rahn-climate-change-very-unsettled-science/By Richard W. Rahn - - Monday, July 27, 2015If you have been to the beach at Treasure Island, Florida (adjoining St. Petersburg), you will notice something very odd. The hotels (many of which were built in the 1950s and ‘60s) and the seawall are very far from the water in the Gulf of Mexico — giving an extraordinarily wide beach. It was not always that way. When the hotels and seawall were built, they were set back from the high tide a normal hundred yards or so; but over the years, there was a natural but unforeseen accretion to the beach — which, having grown up in the area, I observed. (It can be seen on Google Earth.)It is a news story when a beach erodes and beach front homes fall into the sea. What is not a news story is that the sand that left one beach for the most part ends up on another beach. The sand barrier islands that ring much of the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts are in constant motion, moving up and down, in and out, and always have been. Yet people seem to be endlessly surprised when part of their beach or riverfront ends up adjoining someone else’s property.This past week, former NASA scientist, James Hansen, who was one of the first to sound the alarm of global warming back in 1988, said that sea levels might rise as much as 10 feet in the next 50 years. His reasoning was so unsupported by evidence that even much of the global warming establishment is walking away from it. Sea levels have been slowing rising since the end of the last ice age 12,000 years ago, but over the last century the sea level rise has decelerated to less than seven inches per century, which mankind has shown it can easily adapt to. Mr. Hansen had predicted and continues to predict rapidly increasing global temperatures — which hasn’t happened. In fact, there has been a 17-year pause in the temperature rise — which neither Mr. Hansen nor any of the major global warming models predicted.Some scientists at NOAA are now claiming that the 17-year pause in temperature rises did not occur because, if you take the year 2000 (a cold year) as the starting point, there has been a small temperature rise. But if you take 1998 as the starting point (a warm year), there has been almost no measurable temperature rise, say NOAA’s critics. The point is the scientists cannot agree on the length of time to show a trend. Even now, we have very imperfect measures of temperatures, let alone the quality of the measurements in decades past — so it is rather arrogant to make statements of great certainty about 100 year trends in temperature based on imperfect data from only a few decades.More unsettling was a study by the Royal Astronomical Society published in Science Daily on July 9, which concludes that solar activity will be exceptionally diminished in the decade of 2030-40 as it was during the Maunder minimum of 1645-1715, a period of sharply lower temperatures known as the “little ice age.” Lower temperatures would be far more damaging than moderate global warming, because agricultural production could be greatly reduced. Note: there are many scientists who think changes in solar output, and/or changes in cloud cover can easily swamp changes in CO2 levels in affecting the earth’s temperature.New satellite data, reported in Climate Science on July 20, shows that Arctic Sea ice has now bounced back to levels last seen in the 1980s when modern measurements began. At the same time, southern sea ice around the Antarctic has grown to a thirty-year high from when it first began to be measured. Climate scientists admit that their models cannot account for the rise in sea ice. By the way, did not Al Gore tell us the Arctic Ocean would be free of sea ice by the summer of 2007?Earlier this month, in testimony before the Congress, EPA Chief Administrator Gina McCarthy claimed that the agency’s pending rule to limit CO2 emissions from power plants would be “enormously beneficial,” even though she admitted that it would only reduce global temperature by one one-hundredth of a degree Celsius, according to the administration’s own estimates. Since it is widely acknowledged that the proposed rule will cause a sharp rise in the cost of electricity, most painful to low-income Americans, I can only assume that Ms. McCarthy means “enormously beneficial” for the bureaucrats at EPA who will have to administer the rule.F.A. Hayek (1899-1992), the great economist and philosopher, warned us about “limits to knowledge” and “fatal conceit,” which is all too evident in much of the scientific establishment. What we do know is the climate and the earth’s physical features have been in continuous change — but it is all too clear that there is much disagreement about both the direction and magnitude of such changes. Those who say the “science is settled” have not been reading the scientific studies.• Richard W. Rahn is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute and chairman of the Institute for Global Economic Growth.James Matkin •YES the latest research from Antarctica points to a new mini ice age ending any fears of global warming from increased trace amounts of anthropogenic C02 (only 0.000360%) . Using new satellite data, scientists have measured the most frigid temperature ever recorded : about -136°F (-93°C)—colder than dry ice. The temperature breaks the 30-year-old record of about -128.6°F (-89.2°C), measured by the Vostok weather station in a nearby location. By Marcus Woo, for National Geographic PUBLISHED DECEMBER 11, 2013. The record for the hottest temperature happened in 1913 more than 100 years ago.Record Antarctic ice extent for more than 40 years strongly points in the opposite direction of global warming.“The origins of the last major ice age, which cloaked the Northern Hemisphere in colossal glaciers, might have had asurprising cause: the buildup of ice sheets on the other side of the planet, in Antarctica, researchers say.At the end of the Pliocene epoch about 2.6 million years ago, ice sheets began covering Europe and North America. Since then, such ice sheets have regularly grown and shrunk more than 50 times, causing sea levels to rise and fall by more than 330 feet (100 meters).” http://www.livescience.com/490... Promoting fears of global warming and drastic job killing action by politicians like Obama is the great folly of our time because truly the science is not settled. Global cooling is more likely now than ever.Scientists predict 'mini ice age' could hit UK by 2030A model of the Sun's magnetic activity suggests the River Thames may freeze over within two decades, experts say.By Gerard Tubb, North of England CorrespondentWednesday 27 December 2017 04:26, UKA mini ice age that would freeze major rivers could hit Britain in less than two decades, according to research from universities in the UK and Russia.A mathematical model of the Sun's magnetic activity suggests temperatures could start dropping here from 2021, with the potential for winter skating on the River Thames by 2030.A team led by maths professor Valentina Zharkova at Northumbria University built on work from Moscow to predict the movements of two magnetic waves produced by the Sun.It predicts rapidly decreasing magnetic waves for three solar cycles beginning in 2021 and lasting 33 years.Very low magnetic activity on the Sun correspond with historically documented cold periods on Earth.Professor Zharkova claims 97% accuracy for the model which dovetails with previous mini ice ages, including the Maunder Minimum period from 1645 to 1715 when frost fairs were held on the frozen Thames.But she cautions that her mathematical research cannot be used as proof that there will be a mini ice age this time around, not least because of global warming.The River Thames froze over in the 17th century. Pic: Museum of London"I hope global warning will be overridden by this effect, giving humankind and the Earth 30 years to sort out our pollution," she said.But Professor Zharkova warned that any downward impact on global warming will last only until the Sun's two magnetic waves become active again in the 2050s."We have to be sorted by that time and prepare everything on Earth for the next big solar activity," she said.Scientists predict 'mini ice age' could hit UK by 2030PROFESSOR VALENTINA ZHARKOVA BREAKS HER SILENCE AND CONFIRMS “SUPER” GRAND SOLAR MINIMUMNOVEMBER 6, 2018 CAP ALLONProfessor Valentina Zharkova gave a presentation of her Climate and the Solar Magnetic Field hypothesis at the Global Warming Policy Foundation in October, 2018. The information she unveiled should shake/wake you up.Zharkova was one of the few that correctly predicted solar cycle 24 would be weaker than cycle 23 — only 2 out of 150 models predicted this.Her models have run at a 93% accuracy and her findings suggest a Super Grand Solar Minimum is on the cards beginning 2020.The last time we had a little ice age only two magnetic fields of the sun went out of phase.This time, all four magnetic fields are going out of phase.Here’s a great (and relatively brief) video explanation of Zharkova’s presentation from Diamond and Lee Wheelbarger:And here’s the presentation in full:If the world was looking for an Epiphany moment, this should be it.Even if you believe the IPCC’s worst case scenario, Zharkova’s analysis blows any ‘warming’ out of the water.Lee Wheelbarger sums it up: “even if the IPCC’s worst case scenarios are seen, that’s only a 1.5 watts per square meter increase. Zharkova’s analysis shows a 8 watts per square meter decrease in TSI to the planet.“Forget the arguments, debates and attempts to win over AGW alarmists — and just prepare.Time is almost up.Super Grand Solar Minimum + Pole ShiftProfessor Valentina Zharkova Breaks Her Silence and CONFIRMS "Super" Grand Solar Minimum - Electroverse