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I assert that Apple Watch will create a new commerce category much like the iPhone brought about general mobile commerce.Commerce: The Unexpected Use Case For Apple WatchOver the last few weeks I have spent quite a bit of time presenting the road map for Apple Pay to dozens of startups, legacy companies and VCs. It may come as a surprise to many that large established companies have become aware of and are enchanted by the infrastructure that is being built around Apple Pay. Gone is the walled garden of the closed wallet schemes some payment startups tried to impose on merchants. Apple wisely chose to have open standards (NFC, Bluetooth) and future open APIs. Astute payment startups free from false ego and legacy agendas are also beginning to see clearly that Apple Pay has far more capabilities than they thought.The infrastructure Apple has created is built upon secure payments. This foundation will be the fertile ground for innovation. The very next layers are already in place: Passbook, IBeacons, Lock Screen notifications, micro location and AirDrop.Apple Watch will be on the leading edge of this new adventure. Watch is in a unique position, on your body during waking hours, to become the center point of needs and desires. Needs and desires are what drive us as humans. Needs and desires is what commerce is all about.Apple has created a haptic (vibration) system they call Taptic. On the surface of your skin, just below the watch, there are millions of receptors. These receptors, like all others, report to the brain. This feature is far more important than it may seem.In the early 1900s a gentlemen by the name of Ivan Pavlov conducted a series of famous tests based on feedback and conditioning. He found touch to be a strong component of a feedback loop. His work also extended to the darker side, showing an animal can be motivated or tortured to change brain states based on a simple signal.Greater Commerce Utility Through SimplificationNeeds and desires along with Pavlov conditioning tied to this new device we currently call a watch is one reason why I am sure Apple Watch will become the foundation of what I am calling Watch Commerce. The shift is subtle yet markedly different from the commerce conducted on other devices. The very limitation of the screen size and other interface constraints will create greater utility through simplification.I have maintained since 2012 that Apple's entry into payments will create the largest startup opportunity since the creation of the App Store. Over the last few weeks I have helped envision the many ways Watch Commerce will emerge. I have identified at least 87 unique commerce use cases centered around or made more useful by Apple Watch. Here is one example:Strolling back to work from a meeting you glance at your Apple Watch and make note of your budget.A few minutes later your receive a Taptic vibration on your wrist notifying you that you are near your favorite independent coffee house, Café Du Nord and they are offering your regular Latte at 15% discount if you take a detour on the way back to work. You give in to desire in perhaps a Pavlovian way. You order and pay while still in the street. You just as well could have come in and had a few minutes of fun banter with the Baristas and paid using NFC based Apple Pay.The detour is timed with a real-time feedback loop controlled by the coffee house POS and production area which is intelligent with sensors that track each step. You can choose to stray for a few minutes and pick up a magazine across the street.The moment your Latte is ready you will receive a lock-screen notification that it is ready for you to pick up. You smile because you have had an experience in just five minutes that would never have been possible before your Apple Watch.Watch Commerce At Retail Store Changes EveythingThis entire experience could take place today, using smartphones and the rather amazing work of two very stealth payment startups with POS ideas firmly based in empirical praxis. Yet the experience is made far richer and far deeper on Apple Watch. When dealing with desires, I assert that this form of commerce will become irresistible. Yes, some of it is Pavlovian but most of it is the close relationship Taptics brings to the already personal and perhaps intimate relationship a watch represents to most people.This is just one example of how Watch Commerce in the real world will change the very nature of how we buy things. There are many more. Most of the very interesting ones will be in the world of retail where astute companies and astute merchants will build grand p0rtals into new retail sales environments you and I will find irresistible.We Will Someday Feel Naked Without Our Watch CommerceMany of us can not visualize the need for this new world of commerce, much as we could not see the need for the commerce we now transact with our smartphones. None the less, all of us have begun to shift a tremendous amount of commerce to these devices. I have absolutely no doubts that we, all of us will shift some of this commerce to these new watches. Once this shift cements, many of us will feel naked without our watches and the Watch Commerce it brings.Get Ready For The Next Apple Pay Milestone: Watch Commerce <-Let Peter read it to you!

The Payments industry just expanded far larger recently with entries from PayPal and Eventbrite (http://www.quora.com/AcceptingPayments/Eventbrite-has-moved-into-the-retail-Payment-Card-processing-space-with-At-The-Door). And it seems that this trend is scheduled to continue.The Rise Of The New Payment Processing CompaniesMerchant Accounts have been around for over 60 years in one form or another. Today, they are currently centered around Visa and MasterCard. Over the last 10 years more attention has been paid to what was always considered as the ugly step child of banking. Credit Card issuing has always been far more glamorous. One of the primary reasons is that the Credit Card issuer makes far more income. They earn income from the consumer with interest charges and various fees, but they also earn the Interchange fees that merchants pay. Interchange fees are about 55% of the costs merchant’s experience in accepting Payment Cards and no one really gets “special” breaks.Thus all of the incredible interest in Payment Card processing is focused on what turns out to be about 5 basis points to 90 basis points and perhaps a few pennies per transaction. All Payment Card processors earn just the Markup from the Payment Card transactions they process. The Markup is not at all a true profit, a vast majority of these funds are used to actually set aside for numerous costs of operation.Estimate, most of the fees merchants pay go directly back to the bank that issued the Payment Card. Payment Card processors in this example earn about a 26% markup.The Rise Of The Payment Card AggregatorsThe new aspect of Payment Card acceptance has been the rise of the smartphone along with the rise of the “PayPal” model of Payment Card processing. In the PayPal model, known as a Payment aggregator, there is a master merchant account that all Payment Card transactions are processed through. Prior to this model banks performed traditional bank underwriting, or allowed third parties to do the underwriting on their behalf. By not performing traditional underwriting, once a mandatory requirement from all of the Payment Card companies and government regulators, payment aggregators can seeming approve an account in an instant and have a far more richer consumer experience.Payment Card aggregators also tend to “normalize” merchant costs to a simple pricing model, e.g.: 2.70% and not expose the merchant to the “ugliness” of the true Interchange costs (e.g.: over 200 variable Interchange rates). Have no doubts, the “ugliness” of traditional Merchant Account costs are nearly directly tied to the people that set the rates, the Payment Card Companies. Many of the Payment Card aggregators have used the anti “ugly fees” marketing position to gain market share to some degree of success.The interesting part is that these fees still need to be paid, they are just not seen by the merchant. As a trade off, most merchants will pay higher fees to the Payment Card aggregator for the simple price. Typically the very low volume merchant and the very low average ticket merchant have a rather large advantage with the Payment Card aggregators. There are other smaller aggregators, in fact there are a number of companies that are very large and offer a significant footprint in the market like Google and Intuit an perhaps ISIS.PayPal pioneered the concept of Payment Card aggregation. Square took this idea to retail merchants when they married Payment Card aggregation to a smartphone with a Card Reader. Square had a good 20+ months to innovate, define the market and to gain a spectacular market share. This all changed on 3/15/2012 with PayPal’s entry in to the market. Currently PayPal is signing up about 1500 accounts per hour since the announcement and that number will grow. I think that it is clear that PayPal will continue on to build on these numbers. Thus the sector is now and forever changed. There is no doubt that no matter how much these two titans want to ignore each other, they have no other choice but to accept this new topography. I addressed this in more detail here:Brian Roemmele's answer to What are the features, and their impact, of PayPal's new retail card reader and payment system?I predicted PayPal’s entry into the market about one year ago here:Brian Roemmele's answer to What are the details of PayPal's new retail payments strategy?Square is in a very good position, however I can see 7 things that Square needs to do today to continue on the spectacular path they have been on. I can also see about a dozen things that are not obvious that should be done in the next 3 months. In this market time is of the essence. But this market is not static, it is dynamic. It would be far easier on both companies were the market just fell in to a duopoly, but that seems not at all likely at this point.Who could challenge a very large PayPal and a very well funded Square?AppleAmazonFacebookRetailers Target, Walmart, and othersEquipment Companies- Verifone, NCR, IBM, etc.The Payment Card companies directlyI do not in any way suggest that all companies will execute in such a manner that there would be wide adoption by consumers and/or merchants outside the walled gardens that each company has. But each company I presented here will have an impact on the market as awhile. Additionally, because of the very fluid nature of this industry, there is a chance that one or more companies may align in some meaningful way. Or be convinced to not enter into the market.Here is more detail on why and the chance these companies are entering into the market:Apple- 100% chance.There is no doubt, Apple will enter the market. With over 400 Million iTunes accounts, Apple has vast access to the consumer wallet. However it seems that they will not be Payment aggregator, but simply be a Payment facilitator using the existing Payment Card companies. They will do this by one or more methods.NFC/BLE/CloudFingerprint ScannerSiri CommerceWe can come to this conclusion by Apple’s recently released supplier list. Interestingly they listed NXP Semiconductors, the inventors of the NFC protocol. Now NXP Semiconductors does sell other chips, but they are redundant to chips Apple already uses. More info can be found here:Brian Roemmele's answer to Why does the iPhone 4S lack NFC support? Will NFC be added in future iPhone releases?Apple also hired Benjamin Vigier, in August 2010, he created the first NFC wallets and Starbucks Card Mobile. I have little doubt that Benjamin’s abundant expertise is left toiling on projects that do not include Payments and NFC.Siri commerce is one of the foundations on why Siri was invented. The simplicity of just saying, “Siri, pay Sightglass Coffee $5 and leave a $1 tip”. More on this can be found here:Brian Roemmele's answer to Will Siri become a transaction completion system?Amazon- 90% chance.Amazon has over 175 Million accounts and knows a tremendous amount about the shopping habits of it’s customers, perhaps more so than another retailer. This can be leveraged to a level that would create amazing synergy with small retailers. It may seem counter intuitive, but Amazon already has the largest number of relationships with independent merchants in the world. This surpasses PayPal when related to actual merchants rather then one time sales one sees on eBay. Amazon has expanded the logistics system to such a degree they could become the wholesale warehouse and Payment Processor for these small merchants. Amazon is already a Payment Card aggregator, however they have been uncompetitive in pricing, this will change. More can be found here:Brian Roemmele's answer to How will the rumored Amazon Tablet with a built-in Payment Card Reader use the rumored Amazon Retail Payments system?Facebook- 100% chance.Facebook is already in the Payments business, so much so they have 3.7 billion in revenue last year from payments. Thats 15% of total revenue reported in Facebook's S1. Facebook now has money transmitter licenses in at least 15 states. Although it seems to be far outside of the mission of a social network, expansion into real world payments would take that 15% total revenue to over 50% or more. Facebook’s access to the buying habits and location data could make it very large player. Facebook is currently not officially a Payment Card aggregator but this seems to be changing very soon.Retailers- 100% chance.Target, Walmart and now over 50 other retailers have joined together to create their own system that will likely allow the participation by merchants of any size. This is a very important change in the landscape as these retailers command collectively the largest group of customers, dwarfing PayPal and Apple combined. More can be found here:Brian Roemmele's answer to Why are Target and Walmart creating their own mobile payment solution?Equipment Compaines- 100% chance.Verifone and NCR are entering into this space with Payment Card processing accounts as a part of the equipment distribution. Both companies combined have a direct connection to 90% of all small to large existing merchants. This will be a significant entry.Payment Card Companies Directly- 100% chance.Lets face it, all players, except for PayPal use the existing Payment Card companies to process the Payment Cards. For 99% of their lives, the Payment Card companies were member associations. While they were innovative in the early years, they atrophied in the most recent years, until they became public companies a few years ago. Visa, MasterCard and American Express is now gearing up to play a very direct and active roll with innovation and the use of technology. It is their marble game and in the end they can set the rules. They will have to be very delicate with the potential anti-trust issues they face, however all of the Payment Card companies have no choice but to enter the market directly. The Payment Card companies do not need to become their own aggregator and thus will have an astounding number of options at hand if they enter into the market directly.Price Alone Does Not MatterWhen one combines these potential new entrants, the announced entrants and the existing companies, there will be an incredible array of options to merchants. In my 28+ years of direct contact with these merchants, I can say without a shadow of doubt that price alone is not going to make a big impact on merchants and nor will great programming and great technology. Merchants are razor sharpened by a Darwinian process of market evolution if they survive past the first 24 months.These practical and pragmatic businesses owners that carry the entire US economy on their collective backs may turn a deaf ear to just about all marketing efforts. Thus for any startup or existing company, the challenge is far more deeper than what tech companies have been known to produce.A Market Big Enough For AllI would suggest to any company that is in this industry today to seek out the true history of Payment Card usage at retailers and stop trying to guess at it. Some companies lost focus on the true needs merchants have. With the tremendous amount of weight the companies I have mentioned will bring to the market, it is now far more important to deeply understand the minute details and draw from wisdom on how better solutions can be created.This market can support all of the existing and new entrants. However there is no doubt that with all of these companies, each market share will be smaller. But I feel true success will not just be in market share, it will be defined by how integrally important a particular solutions becomes to merchants, and I can see a number of ways to make this happen.

Possibly.Obvious caveat: no one here (unless some ‘Hawks players or coaches have joined Quora) has any inside information. So we’re just speculating a bit.But there have been some reports of friction in the locker room of late. A few months back, I saw an article mentioning that outspoken CB Richard Sherman was talking a bit more than usual at practice, even shouting at QB Russell Wilson “You f***ing suck!” after picking him off. That’s a bit more intensity in the trash-talking than you normally expect from teammates.And just this week, after losing to the division rival Rams 42–7 at home, S Earl Thomas told the press that he didn’t necessarily think injured LB Bobby Wagner should have played through his injury, prompting a bit of a clapback (since deleted) from Wagner on Twitter: “E keep my name out yo mouth. Stop being jealous of other people success. I still hope you keep balling bro.”I doubt sincerely that Thomas meant anything negative, but players sniping at each other on Twitter isn’t a good look.Now, to be fair, all of this is happening almost 3 years after the famous Malcolm Butler interception to seal Super Bowl XLIX for the Patriots. The Seahawks made it to the playoffs the following season, though they lost to the Panthers in the divisional round. And they made it again last year, losing to the Falcons in the divisional round. So they’ve had some decent success since that fateful day.But the famed Legion of Boom is mostly injured. The team is reaching the limits of the burden it can place on Russell Wilson’s shoulders. Pete Carroll, famously a “player’s coach,” seems to run a loose locker room that gets undisciplined during losses - look no further than Michael Bennett’s repeated dives at centers’ legs during victory formations for that. And they’re likely to miss the playoffs this year as the Rams will probably win the NFC West and the NFC South will lock up the two wild card slots.It’s much harder to play on a team that’s on its way down.