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[Warning: VERY LONG]Almost everything was known publicly before.Here are 23 things I learned while watching the lawsuit.Most surprising to me was #21 (Legacies):Out of the 233 (14%) legacies in class of 2022, maybe 82–105 are minorities.Asian-American 41-53African-American 22-28Latinos 19-24Also #23 (Legacies): In class of 2019, Crimson survey had legacies (2,269, 756 avg) averaging higher than non-legacies (2,221, 734 avg) on SATs.Jennifer Hu's answer to Harvard rated Asian American applicants lower on personality traits for admissions. What is the logic behind the decision for lower ratings? is a fantastic answer.I also highly recommend reading Karabel’s Chosen (2005, ~100 pages are free at Google Books) for long stories about the intricate history of HYP admissions (rather than sound bites in the newspapers)."Not only at Harvard, but at Yale and Princeton as well, the academic side of the college experiences ranked a distant third behind club life and campus activities.As a consequence, the competition for social position and the leadership of extracurricular activities could be - and often was - ferocious; in scholastic matters, however, the “gentleman’s C” reigned supreme.Competing in sports, Peabody believed, helped develop in students a multiplicity of virtues: loyalty, courage, cooperation, and masculine strength. By teaching young men to exert themselves to the fullest while playing within the rules, athletics would teach self-control and a sense of decency and fair play….Ranking lower still was intellect - a quality that was viewed with suspicion as oriented to the self rather than the community.”The Chosen: The Hidden History of Admission and Exclusion at Harvard, Yale, and Princeton: Jerome Karabel: 0046442773553: Amazon.com: Books (Jerome Karabel, 2005).More excerpts: https://www.quora.com/What-secrets-about-Harvard-s-admission-process-were-revealed-in-2018/answer/Mitchell-Tsai/comment/78578706Harvard originally did a lot of religious training. Then it became a finishing school for the upper class. Only in the late 1800s, did they try to become a top research university (An idea which came from Germany to the US with Johns Hopkins in 1876).The proportion of Harvard students which should be “smart” has been an issue of great debate in 1880–2018 (and probably even before). Harvard decided it wanted to become a top research university, not just a feeder for private clubs and the social world of the upper class.23 Things I learned during the lawsuit:(1) Strong ratings (1 or 2, on a scale of 1–6) are rare for non-Academics. This lawsuit is the first time I’ve seen exact numbers. 150,701 applicants in 2014–2019.“Everyone over decile 6 is lumped into Academic score 2. (Academic score 1 is reserved for faculty-reviewed academic submissions.)”- Jennifer Hu's answer to Harvard rated Asian American applicants lower on personality traits for admissions. What is the logic behind the decision for lower ratings?- David Card’s 12/15/17 Brief Exhibit 5(2) No model in the lawsuit (1–6 ratings, & other info) is better than 74%. Card estimates that 31–43% of admissions is decided by things not revealed in the lawsuit (such as teacher recommendations).This 31–43% leaves a huge window open for racial bias.It is also possible that there is no bias (or little bias) in the unobservables.- David Card’s 12/15/17 Brief Exhibits 20 & 30(3) Technical details from Slate article on Harvard Classes of 2014–2019 (6 years).What We’ve Learned About Who Gets Into Harvard From Its Discrimination LawsuitOnly about 439 domestic 1s each year out of 25,117 applicants (150,701 applicants for 6 years).A few tricky points which readers might not notice.(1) Domestic students only (1,858 admits/yr, rather than 2,000–2,000 admits)(2) People with multiple 1s: about 26/yr admitted with 1126 or better. Five 1133s were lumped into the “Solid candidates” (1/yr).(3) People with one or two 2s (and no 1’s) aren’t mentioned in Exhibit 4.(4) Well-rounded (Four 2s) is very rare (103 out of 25,117 applicants)(5) 2+/2/2- are very different(6) About 90/yr admits with 1 and two 2s (1226 or better).- David Card’s 12/15/17 Brief Exhibits 4 & 6.So here are my best guesses at filling in the gaps (domestic students only)Multiple 1s (? admission - 26? 1126+ admitted, 1 1133s applicant, 1134&below?)- 0.1%? of applicants (30?), 1.5%? of admits (26?)Non-Extracurricular 1s or Four 2s (66–88% admission)- 2% of applicants (444), 19% of admits (347)Extracurricular 1 or Three 2s & 4 (43–48% admission, 2224+) “Excellent Candidates”- 6% of applicants (1,620), 38% of admits (700)Two 2s & Two 3s (23% admission - might be any two 2s) “Solid Candidates”- 10% of applicants (2,500?), 31% of admits (580)One or Two 2s (2%? admission, Between 2234 & 2666)- 44% of applicants (11,100?), 11%? of admits (200?)Zero 2s (0.1% admission)- 37% of applicants (9,330), 0.5% of admits (10)Total admits - 1,858 domestic, 2,000-2,100 with internationalNote 1: Legacies (34% admission)- 3% of applicants (774), 13% of ALL admits (263), ALL = domestic + international- about 35–45%? are minorities (haven’t crunched numbers yet)Note 2: Children of faculty & staff (47% admission)- 0.2% of applicants (53), 1% of ALL admits (25)Data for notes 1 & 2 from What We’ve Learned About Who Gets Into Harvard From Its Discrimination Lawsuit(4) Even for non-recruited-athletes, Athletic 2 is a big help.Athletic 2 (12% admit) vs. Overall (7% admit) = +5%2222 (68% admit) vs. 222 w Athletic 3 (48% admit) = +20%Harvard’s history from the past 200 years shows that they consider athletics important for loyalty, courage, cooperation, self-control, and a sense of decency and fair play…“62. Harvard’s admissions data confirm the importance of the athletic rating. For example, applicants with an athletic rating of 2 have an admission rate of 12%.That is substantially higher than the overall admission rate of approximately 7%, and is the same as the admission rate of applicants with an academic rating of 2.Further, as shown above, receiving a rating of 2 on all four profile ratings is associated with an admission rate of 68%, while receiving a rating of 2 on the three non-athletic ratings and a rating of 3 or worse on the athletic rating is associated with an admission rate of only 48%.”- David Card’s 12/15/17 Brief(5) Asian-American females are stronger non-Academically and more likely to be multi-dimensional (Three 2s or better) than Asian-American males.Asian-American females are more slightly more likely to be admitted than average applicants (Advantage in 5 years out of 6. It’s some years, the advantage has statistical significance, but not in other years).- David Card’s 12/15/17 Brief Exhibits 23 & 24.(6) “Card said his model showed a slight advantage for Asian American female applicants, and Asian Americans who applied from California.”Harvard attorney appears confident in admissions case ruling(7) Harvard weighs both potential & accomplishment, and tries to balance the number of people in different concentrations and possible careers.Arcidiacono’s data did not reflect intended concentration, intended career, mother or father deceased, mother or father occupation, hours applicant works, whether they were born outside the US, etc…86. “For example, if the son of a professional writer and the son of a police officer display talent in writing, Harvard might regard the latter’s talent as more impressive than the former’s. The same might be true of the daughter of professional scientists and the daughter of factory workers, both of whom exhibit talent in a scientific field.”- David Card’s 12/15/17 Brief Exhibits 12–14.(8) The two sides have major differences in what is considered important.Arcidiacono contends that the personal rating is suspect. Harvard considers three 2s (and a 4) essential for an “excellent candidate” (43–48% admission), but you can’t get three 2s if you excel at academics and extracurriculars, but have low personal and athletic scores. You can’t get Two 2s and two 3s “strong candidate” (23% admission) either if you do no sports…or you get rated 4–6 in personal.(9) I would agree with Arcidiacono’s contention that to detect racial bias, you should compare “typical Asians”, “typical Whites”, and “typical AHOs” (African-American, Hispanic, Other).Or you could compare “legacy Asians”, “legacy Whites”, and “legacy AHOs”.When possible, try to compare apples to apples.“Professor Card makes a similar modeling error by always including recruited athletes, children of faculty and staff, applicants who are on the Dean’s List or Director’s List, and legacies in his models.”- http://samv91khoyt2i553a2t1s05i-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Doc-415-2-Arcidiacono-Rebuttal-Report.pdf(10) Until 2004, Texas A&M University gave legacy applicants a four-point boost on a 100-point scale. But the school ended that practice after being criticized for maintaining legacy preference when it had stopped considering race in admissions.Legacy Admissions Offer An Advantage — And Not Just At Schools Like Harvard(11) “There was no testimony from rejected students. The names of the Asian-Americans represented by Students for Fair Admissions were redacted from the record, because they were worried about being harassed and reviled for their views, according to the leader of the group, Edward Blum.”The Harvard Trial: A Double-Edged Sword for College AdmissionsIMO, none of the rejected students would have gotten in with race-neutral admissions.They probably would have gotten in if Hispanic or African-American, but not if they were white non-hispanic (This is in response to a commenter…who said they would have gotten in if African-American).(12) “In 1977, freshman class was 1,585 with endowment of $2 billion.In 2017, freshman class was 1,659 with endowment of $37 billion.”Harvard's Data Problem(13) “Athletes with the highest or second-highest academic rating on an internal Harvard admissions scale have an acceptance rate of 83 percent—compared to 16 percent for non-athletes—according to a report from the University’s Office of Internal Research.By Ivy League Conference rules, recruited athletes are placed on a 240-point Academic Index, which is calculated based on GPA and standardized test scores. While the minimum score required for Ivy League admissions is 176, the average Academic Index for recruited athletes cannot be more than one standard deviation below the index of the previous four freshmen classes.At Harvard, the student body index is roughly 220—approximately equivalent to a SAT score of 2200 and near 4.0 GPA, according to a 2014 Crimson report. Students who walk-on to teams are not included in the Athletic Department’s estimate.Coaches cannot guarantee admissions spots to prospective student-athletes, whose applications must be vetted by the full 40-member admissions committee.Recruited athletes who pass this process will receive a ‘likely letter,’ indicating the applicant is likely to be admitted by the University.”Filings Show Athletes With High Academic Scores Have 83 Percent Acceptance Rate | News | The Harvard Crimson(14) I liked this step-by-step article about the admissions process.Here’s How the Harvard Admissions Process Really Works | News | The Harvard Crimson(15) “It admitted 1,800 U.S.-based students to the graduating Class of 2019. But for those 1,800 slots, it received more than 37,000 applications, including 8,000 with grade point averages of a perfect 4.0 and 3,500 with perfect math SAT scores.”William Watson: Harvard, facing a lawsuit, discovers cries of ‘racism’ aren’t always fair(16) “Black students are much less likely to graduate from high school and attend college than white students with the same family income.The differences were substantial. Whereas poor white men graduated high school about 78 percent of the time, black men whose families had the same income graduated only 70 percent of the time. Disparities for women exist too, but were much smaller.The authors note a puzzling phenomenon: On average, black girls score lower on tests than white girls with the same family income, but there’s no such disparity in their adult earnings. This suggests that test scores don’t fully capture the skills of black girls.Ironically, Raj Chetty, coauthor of this study, is perhaps best known in the education world for pioneering but controversial research on the links between test scores and adult income. (That research focused on teachers’ impact on student scores, which was found to translate into higher earnings later in life.)The latest study doesn’t overturn the previous research, but it does raise questions about whether test scores may be less accurate for certain groups of students.The paper points out that kids of all races do better in certain neighborhoods.“Black and white boys who grow up in neighborhoods with lower poverty rates, higher test scores, higher median rents, and more two-parent households tend to have higher incomes in adulthood,” they write.The research finds that up to 25 percent of the black-white income disparity is connected to the neighborhood a student grows up in.That suggests that ensuring families of different races live in the same neighborhood and attend school together — integration — can have a significant effect.https://chalkbeat.org/posts/us/2018/03/23/race-not-just-poverty-shapes-who-graduates-in-america-and-other-education-lessons-from-a-big-new-study/(17) “At the postgraduate level, rates of African-American achievement are disheartening. According to the National Science Foundation, people who are “Black or African-American” earned barely 2 percent of Ph.D.s in physical sciences and earth sciences in 2016. Universities awarded 1,730 doctorates in math and computer sciences in 2016, but only 78 of them went to black or African-American individuals.Even in the humanities, where African-American studies programs and hiring have been an obsession for more than three decades, blacks and African-Americans didn’t even reach 4 percent of the total.Meanwhile, as academics and advocates have fervently defended the practice in spite of its small demonstrable advantages, the share of black children who live in single-parent households has risen to two-thirds.Given the high correlation between family structure and educational attainment, this trend casts affirmative action in a different light.Racial preferences boost a tiny cohort of African-Americans once they reach the point where they can seek entry into elite institutions. But for everyone else, it does little.”The Clock Ticks for Affirmative Action(18) “In one presentation, she noted that only a little over 2,000 African-American students in the United States score above 700 on the SAT, while more than 50,000 white and Asian-American students earn such a score.”Harvard Admissions Officials Are Grilled on How They Use Race in Admissions(19) Since Harvard is admitting 15% African-Americans (300 admits/yr), they could admit all African-Americans of deciles 6–10 (and half of decile 5). Academic Index deciles = SAT/GPA.Thanks to Jennifer Hu for turning Table 5.1 into a beautiful graph.Who could do the work at Harvard? Estimates are that anyone in deciles 3–10 (top 80%) could finish their classes & graduate in good standing.60% of African-American and 41% of Hispanic-American applicants might be under-qualified (13% of Whites & 9% of Asian-Americans). The applicants are correctly seeing that Harvard has much lower standards for African-Americans and Hispanic-Americans.Note: This table (only 129,861 out of 150,701 applicants) does not include internationals (?), legacies, recruited athletes, children of faculty & staff, dean’s interest list, people whose race could not be identified (Card did a better job than Arcidiacono and identified about 10,000 more people), and maybe other stuff.- Jennifer Hu's answer to Harvard rated Asian American applicants lower on personality traits for admissions. What is the logic behind the decision for lower ratings?(20) “Sixty-seven percent of the university’s undergraduates come from families that made about $110,000 or more a year. That share rises to 72 percent at Princeton University, and is 62 percent — the lowest in the Ivy League — at Columbia University.Fifteen percent of Harvard students come from families that made about $630,000 or more a year. Only two Ivy institutions — Columbia and Cornell Universities — have a smaller share of students from such families, at 13 percent and 10 percent, respectively. At the top of the list is Dartmouth College, with 21 percent.At Harvard, the median annual family income is $168,800. Columbia’s is the lowest, at $150,900, and Brown University’s is the highest, is $204,200.”Median Family Income for Harvard Undergrads Triple National Average, Study Finds | News | The Harvard Crimson(21) I tried to do a legacy analysis on the Class of 2022 from Harvard (1,661 people) & Crimson data (1,064 people). I would LOVE to see an actual total of legacy tips (people who otherwise would not have been admitted). But understandably, Harvard wants to keep that private.Class of 2022 By the Numbers (Crimson)82% of those admitted will join Harvard’s Class of ’22 (Harvard)233 legacies - 14% Legacy based on Harvard (18% based on Crimson survey)White 150-193Minorities 82–105Asian-American 41-53African-American 22-28Latinos 19-24If 50% of legacies got in on their own merits, 116 were legacy tips.If 75% of legacies got in on their own merits, 58 were legacy tips.(22) Admissions math - looking at a purely “academic merit” approach - ignoring empathy, compassion, ethics, creativity, social causes, activities, athletics, music, legacy, parents who didn’t go to college, parental occupations, race, intended concentration, teacher recommendations, personal essay, etc…4,300,000 US High school students3,600,000 US High School graduates (2017)2,100,000 SAT exam takers (2018)434,000 SAT 1,200+ (2018)413,680 Top 10 students of each high school (Class Rank)202,000 SAT Math 700+ (2018)145,000 SAT 1,400+ (2018)141,000 SAT English 700+ (2018)82,736+ Valedictorians, salutatorians, and co-valedictorians.41,368+ Valedictorians, co-valedictorians17,000–18,000 SAT 1500+ (750+ avg, 2014, 2,400 rescaled to 1,600)-> possibly 20,000-22,000 in 20181,400-1,700 Typical Ivy League class size (Cornell 3,400, U Penn 2,500, MIT 1,100, Caltech 240), which may include 5–20% international students.(23) Harvard is willing to take people with SAT 400s & 500s, GPA 2.8 & 3.0 - by looking at empathy, compassion, ethics, creativity, social causes, etc…What is the lowest SAT accepted to Harvard?Class of 2021 & 2022 - Crimson stopped publishing SAT/GPA charts.Class of 2020 - two people self-reported 1,320, 1,450 (out of 2,400).Class of 2019 - three people 1,240, 1260, 1,360 (out of 2,400).Legacies (2,269, 756 avg) averaged higher than non-legacies (2,221, 734 avg).Someone commented that these five sub-500 averages might have been on the new 1,600 SAT (incorrectly not converted to 2,400 in the Crimson survey), so here are seven people averaging 550–580.Class of 2020 - three people 1,650, 1,680, 1,730.Class of 2017 - four people 1,660, 1,680, 1690, 1,700.