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How is the Coronavirus spreading all over the world so fast? Is there no cure for that?

So… You’re Likely Going to Get the Coronavirus; COVID19. But… Just Maybe Not This YearI’m a retired anesthesiologist, father, husband, caretaker to an elderly parent and basically your average disabled American digesting what’s happening on Earth in 2020. About a month ago I wrote about COVID19, on Facebook, although, at the time, it was called 2019-nCoV – “The Wuhan Coronavirus” but has been now officially labelled as COVID19.This is a long answer and meant for those that have some minutes to read and some minutes to digest it. First a short answer for those without the time right now.Short Answer:The bad news is that COVID19 is not going to be contained globally. The decent news is that the United States (and many other countries) has/have done some things correctly to slow the spread of the disease for this 2019-20 Season. Hindsight will be 20/20 on this one and there will have been mistakes made, however, in my opinion, preventing COVID19 in the United States will eventually be found to have been impossible.Why? Basically, two reasons for such a fast spread:1) It appears there is a long period of time (more than 72 hours) when one has COVID19 and is infectious to others. Hence, the 14-day quarantine model being used.2) Initial data shows that 80% of people get a mild to moderate illness, about 15% of people experience a severe illness and 5% get labelled critical. Hence, there are a bunch of people sick but not sick enough to avoid others.Example: You are feeling not-great, but it’s Friday and you have these one or two things that need done at work before the weekend. You go into work, have a great day ‘work-wise’ even though by the end of the day you are exhausted and ready for the weekend. On Sunday, you have a fever of 100.8, cough a bit, and know you are sick. Later, you find out you got it from the gal who did this the last Friday at your workplace. She got it from her kid the week before who could not miss the three tests in school that he had the Thursday (because he studied so hard for them) and… because he was going on a high school sports team trip over the weekend… etc. Yep, the whole sports team has it now, too. And… the other team has it, too. And… the other team’s parents.This is how the virus will spread so fast throughout the world. There is no cure for human-to-human contact, although the Chinese have tried! This is not the whole story, though.Long Answer:My own four kids have all used ‘being sick’ as a way to attempt to get out of school. Yep. Some more than others. Just as often, they have lied in the other direction, stating they are fine, about being not-being-sick because of the pain of make-up work. Especially during their junior and senior years of high school. Just imagine, in your mind, a high school hallway, thick with teen spirit and pheromones, between classes and a virus that is transmitted by air, on all those voices, all those laughs, a few coughs, numerous high fives, fist bumps and playful slaps and all of that in very close proximity. Inevitable.The distribution of mild/moderate, to severe to critical cases of COVID19 makes global spread inevitable. Four out of five people with COVID19 have symptoms like the common cold or mild flu. I would guess, at least 50% of those people will go to work (when maybe they should not), go to school (when maybe they should not), congregate with friends (when maybe they should not), visit family (when maybe they should not), or ‘get through’ their normal days without so much as a thought that they are really ‘that sick’ and the pattern will repeat for families, for communities and for cities and countries. Human Nature.Well, that sucks. It does. It has happened before and will happen again, just like every novel human illness before this one. Think of your own city. I look at my own hometown of Columbus, OH. The “Arnold Sports Festival” is March 5-8, 2020 and was already the largest multi-sport event in the world by 2018. This is an amazing experience with people who train year-round to compete. It’s a people watchers dream. Last year, in 2019, Columbus saw over 22,000 athletes competing! The event – which ran from Thursday, Feb. 28, 2019 to Sunday, March 3, 2019 – had an economic impact of $54.1 million on Columbus last year! Even if 50% of the athletes choose not to come and 50% of the crowds stay home and everyone washes their hands all the time… even then, this airborne virus will spread here in my hometown. Then, back to where everyone was coming from.Life continues; my wife travelled this week to Colorado, domestically, but there’s a lot of people between here, in Ohio, all the way by airport to Colorado and then back next weekend. The following week, our Spring Break, I, my wife and my two youngest will travel domestically. This whole week, those younger ones are attending school. My two eldest are in graduate school, attending classes and my eldest son is travelling with his NCAA Volleyball team. Life goes on. We have not stopped our lives.I fielded a bunch of medical questions in late January and early February. Since then, here are the top three I’ve received from non-medical people across multiple platforms:Should I wear a mask? The only mask that would help is what they call an N95 mask and that has to be fitted properly to work properly. Hospital employees will be using these when treating people with airborne illness, like COVID19. For the average person travelling or living their lives, masks will likely not prevent you from getting COVID19, but if you are sick with any cold or flu, wearing any mask may reduce the spread of your own infectious droplets (airborne or otherwise) to other people, surfaces, your own hands, etc. I say, may, because you have to be diligent not to spread your own germs.To be as safe as we can for all colds and flus, learn this, teach this to your kids:• WASH YOUR HANDS• TOUCH LESS THINGS AND PEOPLE• TOUCH YOUR FACE LESS• COUGH OR SNEEZE INTO ELBOWWhat’s the treatment? For the 80% of people that will have a mild to moderate illness when contracting COVID19, it’s fluids, rest and recover. Take your temperature every day and treat fevers, that means a temperature greater than 100.5 degrees, with Acetaminophen (Tylenol) or Ibuprofen (Advil).[ EDIT ADDED March 18, 2020 - There is a publication, that includes a warning by French Health Minister Veran that Advil (Ibuprofen) and other NSAIDs may make the course of COVID19 illness worse. The warning followed a recent study in The Lancet medical journal that hypothesised that an enzyme boosted by anti-inflammatory drugs such as ibuprofen could facilitate and worsen COVID-19 infections. Here is the paper: Are patients with hypertension and diabetes mellitus at increased risk for COVID-19 infection? END EDIT ADDITION ~Chris ]For the 20% that get severe or critically sick; They are going to need the best care they can get and if they develop further disease, perhaps hospitalization. If you are older, or have cardiac issues, or lung issues, or just have had a chronic illness, like diabetes for decades, you will be at greater risk of getting more sick than the average person BUT that’s true of every cold and flu you get!Can my kids get it? It would appear that they can but the CDC states, “there is no evidence that children are more susceptible [to COVID19]. In fact, most confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported from China have occurred in adults. Infections in children have been reported, including in very young children. From limited information published from past Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) outbreaks, infection among children was relatively uncommon.” *Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)This past week, I think for obvious reasons, the questions I received turned more financial than medical in nature!Except one new medical question this week: If I get COVID19, can I get it again? The truthful answer is there is not enough good data to give a definitive answer, yet. It’s true, this is a new, or novel, form of coronavirus, but our human race has encountered many novel illnesses over time and ones much worse than COVID19. My medical suspicion will be that most people who get this year’s COVID19 virus, will not likely get it again. It is also my suspicion that most Americans will get COVID19 next year, not this year, if they are going to contract it.As for economic impacts, watching $3.6 Trillion dollars of value vanish for the S&P 500 was difficult for most Americans with an IRA to watch. As an individual, one thing I have learned about investing is that you, an individual, cannot ‘time’ the market, you can only time yourself. I’ve counselled many young new doctors and dentists just beginning their retirement accounts to “Bet on the USA” because they are all “individually” about 30 years old and have 35 years before they retire. Their ‘timing’ of the markets is to buy every month with their IRA contributions. Lori and I are 50 years old, our ‘individual’ timing is different, we retire in 15 years. Our elderly parent is near 85 years old, his ‘individual’ timing is different.I’ve been asked for advice (financially) a bunch this past week: (This is what I tell almost everyone) and I rarely answer anything about finances.GENERALLY SPEAKING: If you are under 45 years old and have less than $500k in retirement, you should by the least expensive (fee-wise) S&P500 Index Fund (I believe that’s Vanguard as of today) and you do not need to look or to care until you hit $500k in your retirement accounts. No individual will out-guess the thousands of business leaders running America’s 500 best companies! If you are over 45 years old and/or have more than $500k then go interview (3) financial advisors, yes, (3) of them, and pick the one that you and your spouse like the most. From 45 to 65 years old, meet at least annually and plan your retirement path. It is a marathon, not a sprint. Lastly, if you work with an advisor, do a 3rd party audit every 3 to 5 years (no matter whom you work with, double check their work every 3 to 5 years)… which is simple because most financial advisors are happy to review what you are doing in hopes of landing future business with you or your family.That’s it. Yep, that’s it. Really. It is simple, actually, we (humans) just make it complicated because of fear, mostly, perhaps, greed, intermittently over our lives. Speaking of fear and money, here is a quick glance at the past global illnesses and the effects or impact on the stock market the past 40 years:Green is a good color here. I hope seeing all that ‘green’ in the picture above makes some of that fear go away. Go ahead, look again, there is a lot of green!That’s money, but if you don't have your health, who cares.2019-nCoV – “The Wuhan Coronavirus” and now known or relabeled as officially COVID19 is going to propagate through the end of April 2020 in the northern hemisphere of Earth. By the middle of May 2020, the new case numbers will fall off and continue to decline for the end of the 2019-2020 Cold/Flu Season.However, it will come back next year in the 2020-2021 Cold/Flu Season.How do I know this? To answer: How is the Corona virus spreading all over the world so fast? Is there no cure for that? more completely let’s look at few things about colds and flus.What is a Flu Season or The Cold & Flu Season? Well, microbes, like those that cause the cold or the flu, do not do well in UV radiation… sunlight kills microbes surprisingly well. For the northern hemisphere of Earth, this means basically from the middle of May through the first week in October there is so much sunlight and UV radiation where people are and interact or congregate that colds and flus, and the microbes responsible for them, just can’t really spread effectively. Every time humans walk outside, their skin, their clothes, all get naturally radiated… while it can give your skin a tan or a sunburn, to a cold or flu microbe, the sunlight is deadly. The warmer ambient air temperatures also cause droplets to vanish much faster in the summer months. That means all the surface-to-surface or people-to-people transmissions are reduced dramatically. However, starting in October and continuing to the follow middle of May, the power of the sun fades in the northern hemisphere, people meet indoors more than outdoors, droplets in cooler air linger longer before evaporating and transmission rates for microbes’ surface-to-surface or people-to-people increases.For the Flu: (AS AN EXAMPLE ONLY)The 40th week of the year, in the northern hemisphere, where the USA and a lot of the world’s population lives, is usually the first full week in October. This is when cases of the Flu begin to show up, usually. The 46th week of the year, which is the middle of November, is when Flu cases double and then climb into the “Flu Season” each year. The 20th week of the year ends in the middle of May and concludes the “Flu Season”. We are in the 10th week of 2020.Let’s first look at last year, the 2018-29 Season:Adopted from: National, Regional, and State Level Outpatient Illness and Viral SurveillanceFirst, notice, the “Flu” is really a number of different types of Influenza with (2) major types for last year. The Flu Shot you may elect to get each year usually has the 3 or 4 most likely flu variants or types most likely to cause the flu illnesses that next season. While the ‘effectiveness’ of the flu shot bounces between 20% and 50% (2005-2018), millions of people likely do not get the flu or get a milder version of it because of the vaccine and transmission rates, overall, are slowed considerably. So, the above picture is a snapshot of the 2018-29 Flu Season.This year is the ongoing 2019-20 Season:Again, adopted from: National, Regional, and State Level Outpatient Illness and Viral SurveillanceYou see different colors in the bar graph for this year, a different curve and timing to the shape of the overall curve and basically, a different flu season compared to last year.We will all see how this cold and flu season ends but, in my opinion, even flu infections are going to fall off sooner and faster than last year because many people are being way safer (because of the COVID19 outbreak and the news cycles about it) and maybe Spring will get here earlier, too:• WASH YOUR HANDS• TOUCH LESS THINGS AND PEOPLE• TOUCH YOUR FACE LESS• COUGH OR SNEEZE INTO ELBOW• HOPE FOR AN EARLY SUMMERTIME!!!If COVID19 is at least similar in transmission to the Flu(s) we get in American Society and everything else being about the same for society, then you are very likely to get COVID19 next season if you do not get it this year. “But… there will be a vaccine!”Maybe, but it may also only be 50% effective. And… honestly, there may not be an effective vaccine, or not enough can be made and/or distributed and/or injected in time for next season, or a hundred other little issues with vaccines, rates of distributions, effectiveness and so, we just do not know what we do not know for next year.We do know this about coronaviruses in general:From: Coronavirus National Trends showing the seasonality of coronaviruses (matches the classic Flu Season) and notice that different coronaviruses (different color lines) peak differently each year AND repeat from one year to the next.My bet is that COVID19 will be a big part of next year’s colds around the world and in the United States, but COVID19 does not look much more deadly than the flu based on what’s been reported. This is a very good thing for the future outlook of the disease.After that, assuming COVID19 does not mutate in some manner and assuming most, 99.9%, of healthy humans, once they get COVID19, form proper antibodies to COVID19 and cannot get it again or there is a vaccine distributed, each new cold/flu season will see less and less beginning 2021-22. COVID19 will fade into history after that.There is no ‘cure’ for the Cold & Flu Seasons on Earth, not yet.I wrote this answer today for those of you who want to know what you can do, today, right now:WASH YOUR HANDS – with warm water, soap for 20-30 seconds, thoroughly dry. Antimicrobial gels (alcohol based) can be used when mobile or interacting but the tried and true method of washing your hands regularly is the habit you should work on for yourself and your family.TOUCH LESS THINGS AND PEOPLE – not saying you need to go Howie Mandel, who’s phobia of touching exists secondary to his extreme case of obsessive-compulsive disorder – he claims he went eight years without shaking hands with others! The point is that you do not need to touch as many things as you do in a given day… but when you touch a bunch of stuff that is not yours, outside of your home… WASH YOUR HANDS.TOUCH YOUR FACE LESS – and this is a very hard habit to break! My method was to write on the back of my dominant hand “DO NOT TOUCH FACE” in a sharpie. However, if you need to touch your nose, lips, face or eyes… form the habit of excusing yourself, go to the washroom, wash your hands… THEN touch your face all you want.COUGH OR SNEEZE INTO ELBOW – this should become a habit for all of us!I also wrote this today to mention what I have written for years and years online – we can all do a better job of self-care. Including me. I’ve written the following ‘prescription,’ first in 2003 for a pain patient who was at her wit’s end and nothing worked to solve her pain. Online, the following, or something close to it, has appeared in hundreds of posts from me:EAT RIGHT — vegetables and fruits, rice and beans, some nuts to make up for calories. Pay attention to get at least 40-50 grams of protein each day from vegetable and grain sources. Little to no meats, almost no dairy, little to no alcohol, little salt and use spices for taste, avoid processed foods, especially sugars – this reduces your body’s inflammation state dramatically. Drink mostly water, black coffee or plain tea.SLEEP RIGHT — this means 7.5–8.5 hours per night. Most people need to discontinue screen time 35–45 minutes before they want to be asleep. THE BIGGEST KEY to sleeping right is waking up at the same time every day… that’s 6:06am for me… I know, yikes, coffee helps make the transition each morning, for me.EXERCISE RIGHT — I used to promote “walk every other day 25–35 minutes” but new research shows moving and walking around 6-10 minutes each hour of the day is far more effective. Swimming is a great alternative. Be smart about physical activity but do it consistently.Like I began with, this is a long Quora answer and meant for those that have some minutes to read and some minutes to digest it. I’m going to cover one more piece of this unfolding COVID19 story and that is Fear, itself.I’d be lying to you if I said that in the past six weeks, I had not experienced fear. Fear of the unknown. Check. For sure, that’s part of this human journey. Fear of what I know about medicine, people, human nature and a host of really bad thoughts and possibilities… all of which brought me some level of fear for myself, distantly, and my family, mostly my family, mostly my kids.The worst fear I experienced was the fear of the Present State of Communication(s), social media(s), news(s), paper(s) – dating myself with that one, forum(s), blog(s), etc… made for profit’s sake, for the sake of getting eyeballs to tune in, or finger(s) to click something… and everyone is likely aware, for political sake(s) or stake(s) on both sides of the aisle in an election year.Instead of pontificating over how I wish all our leaders might conduct themselves and how information should be disseminated about things like COVID19 – because I am not going to impact either… I can only tell you how I will conduct myself to be part of the solution:Right now, today:• WASH YOUR HANDS• TOUCH LESS THINGS AND PEOPLE• TOUCH YOUR FACE LESS• COUGH OR SNEEZE INTO ELBOWThis year, this Spring and Summer, learn to do this 6 of 7 days for all the rest of your days:• EAT RIGHT• SLEEP RIGHT• EXERCISEIf you get sick with the cold/flu sniffles, fever above 100.5 degrees, body aches and pains:• WASH YOUR HANDS• TOUCH LESS THINGS AND PEOPLE• TOUCH YOUR FACE LESS• COUGH OR SNEEZE INTO ELBOW• AVOID OTHERS AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE UNTIL NO FEVER FOR THREE DAYSDespite many unfortunate events in my own life, many of which fuel my passion to write, I continue to believe in the optimistic outcome for the human species. We will get there, better in the future than we have been in the past, of that, I have no doubt.Peace. Love & Life to you All.~Chris

What’s the “vaccines cause autism” of your industry?

“What’s the “vaccines cause autism” of your industry?”Lawyer here.I’m going to have to go with the “sovereign citizen” nonsense (also sometimes known as/confused with/closely associated with/[whatever] “tax protestors”, “redemption movement”, “freemen-on-the-land”, etc., though the latter is mostly a Commonwealth thing, not U.S.).The gist of it is that, for one reason or another, the government’s authority is not merely philosophically illegitimate (that would just be run-of-the-mill anarchism), but is in fact legally illegitimate. Therefore, there are certain special forms, formulas, phrases, or something that you can invoke to reject the government’s power over you and no longer be subject to the laws or the courts. Optional extras frequently involve the ability to become instantly wealthy by “claiming” the money that the government holds in a secret account in your name, or that is actually some sort of government loan with you as the collateral.Now, I’d try to go through the fundamental premises and give a systematic legal rebuttal, but…There is no one set of fundamental premises—the whole thing is all over the map, ranging from “I can almost see how a legal layperson might think that could work” to “Someone must have put David Icke and Black’s Law Dictionary in a blender to see what would happen.”As implied above, only a tiny handful of “sovereign” beliefs are even close enough to real law to be possible to rebut. Most of the time, it’s like saying, “Scientifically prove for me that astral entities are not nth-dimensionally malignant in the quantum manifold.” There’s “sciency” terms there… but the only correct “disproof” is “What the heck are you smoking, and is it legal in the State of Colorado?”Just for a quick taste of some “sovereign” beliefs… the ones that I can paraphrase without needing a stiff drink or three. A reminder: this is a wide sampling, so not all “sovereigns” necessarily believe all these things.The fringe on the flag in many courtrooms means the court is actually operating under admiralty law.What actual significance this is claimed to have, or why this would be the case is generally pretty murky… but the conclusion is generally, “And therefore this court has no jurisdiction over my case.”The invocation ranges anywhere from conspiracy theory (i.e., “This really is only an admiralty court, but there’s a conspiracy to fool us all… but they still put the fringe on the flag because reasons!”) to “Gotcha” (i.e., “By displaying a fringed flag, you’ve forfeited your jurisdiction over non-admiralty cases, so neener-neener, can’t touch me!”).“ANTHONY ZARRELLA” refers to a “corporation” established by the government with Anthony Zarrella (note capitalization) as collateral (or corporate assets… or something)… so a lawsuit or criminal case naming ANTHONY ZARRELLA in the case caption or service documents does not properly apply to Anthony Zarrella.This often involves some sort of claim of your birth certificate being a financial bond, and something-something-CUSIP-numbers.Also sometimes assigns special significance to writing one’s name with double colons on either side, like so— ::Anthony Zarrella:: I’ve never been able to figure out exactly what that’s claimed to do, and I haven’t seen it much in the last few years, so maybe that element of the mythos has died out.The term “person” in the Fourteenth Amendment refers to corporations, not to human beings.Needless to say, the “sovereigns” have had a field day with Citizens United and Hobby Lobby… despite the fact that neither one was actually about the doctrine of “corporate personality” at all…The Fourteenth Amendment was a sort of “contract” granting “colored” people the same rights enjoyed by whites, but only in exchange for accepting federal authority—so white people, who never needed that “bargain” are not subject to those “conditions”.Such “conditions” often are asserted to include being subject to taxation, licensure of various sorts, and so forth.There is some sort of document (what sort varies) that you can file to “renounce U.S. citizenship” while remaining in the country—and that rather than losing any rights as a result of becoming a non-citizen alien, doing so would somehow free you from the jurisdiction of the U.S. entirely.You have to “consent” to a court’s jurisdiction, and can terminate a case by “withdrawing consent”.Criminal charges are “charges” in a financial sense, and can somehow be “paid” or “written off” through some sort of incomprehensible legal chicanery involving the Uniform Commercial Code.[Hat tip to Eric Lowe] Legal terms can only have special meanings distinct from their colloquial meanings if there is some equivalent phrase in Latin.[Hat tip to Fernando Ximeno—and I can’t believe I forgot this one] The constitutional right to “freedom of travel” means not merely that States cannot restrict the ability of citizens to enter or exit their borders, but rather that no form of travel may be subject to restraint or licensure.I.e., they don’t believe they need driver’s licenses, and when arrested for driving without a license, will protest, “I am not driving—I am traveling.”[Leon Stauffer] Lawyers who use the honorific “Esquire” have accepted a foreign title of nobility and thereby renounced their citizenship, due to the “Missing Thirteenth Amendment” (the Titles of Nobility Amendment, which was put to the States by Congress in the early 1800s but was never ratified… and wouldn’t apply anyway, because my “Esq.” isn’t a title granted by any foreign entity).If you squint, you can see some vague thread of consistent concept running through some of these (most prominently the “strawman” theory—that for each citizen, there is both the flesh-and-blood individual and some sort of government-created “fictitious person”). But it’s utter tripe.What makes it so similar in many ways to “vaccines cause autism” is the honestly somewhat impressive lengths some of these individuals have gone through to “quote mine” Supreme Court cases and creatively interpret legal language in support of their arguments.Just like anti-vaxxers, it is precisely the fact that they do know at least slightly more about their subject than the typical layperson which makes them so dangerous.An anti-vaxxer can cite impressive-sounding journal articles and use mostly-accurate medical terminology in a way that makes you think they know what they’re talking about.And in the same way, if you’ve only got an everyday knowledge of law, many “sovereign” arguments can sound very impressively “legal-ish”, and a cursory fact check will even reveal that, yeah, a few of the things they claim the courts have said have been said.But if you do just a little more than a cursory fact check, you see that it’s nonsense.After all, this is word-perfect quote from the Bible:“There is no God.”—Psalm 14:1But look with a bit more insight and intelligence than a “Ctrl+F” function, and you find:The fool says in his heart, “There is no God.”—Psalm 14:1

Does the US have a system and action plan in place to deal with a biological terrorist attack? Why isn’t that system being implemented full on? Or is there no such system?

This will be dealing with several aspects, not just bio-terrorism but a pandemic in general, and what is happening now. I don’t want to cherry-pick but there’s a lot involved here and I have tabs open with ~3,000 pages of documents, I can’t cover everything so this is going to be the Sparknotes version where I address the general concepts. If you want to see the stuff more in-depth (and boring) this will be heavily sourced.***The current pandemic is not a result of bioterrorism or biological warfare.***First things first, yes, there are plans. However, unlike another author dangerously, irresponsibly, and misleadingly claims (considering the current situation), the military would not be given control or execute civilians who don’t “follow orders” after a bioterror/warfare attack. That claim is patently false and there is not one shred of evidence to back it up. Even in cordon sanitaires during the West Africa Ebola Outbreak soldiers did not execute civilians. If they didn’t do it then we sure as hell wouldn’t do it now, whether it be a natural pandemic or the result of bioterror/warfare.What is the military doing now?Northern Command officially began the implementation of its plan for a pandemic on February 20th. A fact that this person who is supposedly “in the know” neglected to mention. This order can be found (for the Navy and Marine Corps) in the form of NAVADMIN 033/20.[1] That footnote will take you straight to the NAVADMIN, it’s not shady or “classified” it’s publicly available for all to see.This NAVADMIN calls for the implementation of CONPLAN 3551–13 “Concept Plan to Synchronize DOD Pandemic Influenza Planning”, the most recent version that I could find was CONPLAN 3551–09.[2] The last two digits are simply the year, there’s usually not really big sweeping changes between them, mostly changes in graphics, vocabulary, anecdotes, and other banal items. We’ll be revisiting the plan later on.The Marine Corps also issued MARADMIN 082/20.[3] This MARADMIN has become something of a conspiracy theorist's delight, namely because they are militarily illiterate and have no clue what they are reading or what the words mean.[4] [5] It’s boring, there is nothing exciting or out of order in the document or its follow-on updates. And to claim that it’s leaked is pure bovine feces, it’s a damn public website, anyone can use it. Those people are straight-up omnishambles.Most of it has to do with travel restrictions, force protection, and what to do if a Marine falls ill/contracts the virus. As of the most current update:Institute the following domestic travel restrictions:3.C.2.A. Effective 16 March to 11 May 2020, all Marines will stop movement. This includes PCS and TDY.3.C.2.B. Effective 16 March to 11 May 2020, USMC civilian personnel and family members, whose transportation is government funded, will stop movement. This includes PCS and TDY.3.C.2.B.1. Until the travel restrictions described above are lifted, commands may only onboard civilian employees within the local commuting area.3.C.2.C. Marines are only authorized local leave and liberty.[6](Permanent Change of Station.) (Temporary Duty.) All prior updates:[7] [8]Those who are not sick are not confined to base but all nonessential travel has been canceled/postponed and all orders to move from one base to another have been delayed. There are exemptions, mainly that if you’re getting out they won’t keep you from doing so, or your spouse/immediate family is going through “extreme hardship”. Deployments will go on, training will still take place, it’s not business as usual but things are a lot more normal on base compared to the public.Parris Island, and I presume MCRD San Diego as well, has canceled all upcoming public graduation ceremonies but the Marines are still graduating. They’re still training like normal. However, MARADMIN 082/20 still applies to them so their post-graduation leave is suspended and they will remain aboard Parris Island until at least May 11th.[9] (That’s probably going to have some manpower implications.)Yes, this is all part of CONPLAN 3551–09/13.So, to tear apart the “The guvmint would shoot people” claim I present this paragraph right off the bat:a. SROE/SRUF will apply during a response to a PI. In addition, any GCC theater specific ROE and SecDef approved mission specific RUF will remain in effect. GCCs may augment the SROE/SRUF as necessary by submitting a request for mission specific ROE/ RUF to the CJCS. National Guard Forces performing lin a non-federalized status are governed by their respective state's RUF.[10](SROE-Standing Rules of Engagement. SRUF-Standing Rules for Use of Force. PI-Pandemic Influenza. GCC-Geographic Combatant Commander. CJCS-Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.)That may not mean much to the average person but it means a lot to me. SROE and SRUF are rules that apply at all times, whether that be on deployment to the Middle East or back in the United States.I break that down a bit more here:Thomas Lewandowski's answer to Does the US or any military have protocols for killing civilians? It's a common trope in apocalyptic-thrillers, but would the military kill civilians to prevent infections from spreading, or target healthy people along with infected people?Thomas Lewandowski's answer to What are your thoughts on the Military's Rules of Engagement? Do you consider them overly restrictive and are they necessary?1.) We can’t operate while armed on US soil unless directly authorized by either the President or the Secretary of Defense. No. One. Else.2.) SROE and SRUF are both inherently defensive. We cannot go seek you out and shoot you or use any form of force unless we are threatened or attacked. The threshold for the use of force under these circumstances is very high. If you think we’re going to shoot someone because they didn’t want to do something you would be mistaken. A person has to use force or reasonably threaten the use of force against a servicemember in order for them to defend themself. Even then, the force used against that person must be proportional to the threat posed and the person. I.e. you can’t beat a 100lb. teenager with a nightstick because they pushed you.Murdering civilians for not acting as a labor force or being a little disobedient, preposterous. (I’m sorry but that claim really irks me.)There are six phases in CONPLAN 3551:(a) Phase 0 - Shape. Prepare DOD for continued operations in the event of a Pl. The priority of effort is surveillance of virus outbreaks. The secondary effort is to plan development and synchronization.(b) Phase 1 - Prevent. DOD supports USG efforts to prevent or inhibit the geographic spread of the virus. The priority of effort is to prepare for and respond to a potential PI, including: surveillance; training, organizing and equipping the force; educating the Key Population, continued planning strategic communication. Secondary efforts are actions to maintain situational awareness and coordinate with interagency, state, tribal, local, and international partners.(c) Phase 2 - Contain. DOD's decisive phase; containing the virus at this point may prevents or delay a PI, potentially alleviating the need for additional phases. The priority of effort is to support USG containment efforts, protect DOD Key Population, and maintain freedom of action to conduct assigned missions within GCC AORs.(d) Phase 3 - Interdict. DOD supports USG efforts in delaying or halting the spread of the virus geographically. Priority of effort is on preparations to ensure freedom of action to conduct assigned missions in the face of an impending Pl.(e) Phase 4 - Stabilize. DOD maintains continuity of operations. Priority of effort is the protection of Key Population while providing mission assurance of priority missions to protect vital national interest. The secondary effort is support of USG efforts.f) Phase 5 - Recover. DOD reconstitutes the force in preparation for the next wave or returns to the inter-pandemic period. Priority of effort is redeployment and reconstitution of the force. Secondary effort is support to USG efforts· to re-establish inter /pre-pandemic conditions.(AOR-Area of Responsibility. USG-United States Government.) More specific information on the phases can be found here on page 43:[11]We’re not really in one single phase at the moment but a combination of 1–3, though 3 would be most appropriate. The whole point right now isn’t necessarily pure containment, we’re past that, all that can be done right now is slowing the spread to acceptable levels. That’s why the military is taking actions such as what’s outlined in MARADMIN 082/20, we can’t actually stop it from spreading but the military can do its part to alleviate some of the burdens on the public medical system. We already take care of our own health care so there’s little need to worry about that, spouses/children can also receive care at military hospitals. That potentially removes millions of possible cases from flooding the public health system.Not trying to simplify a ~400-page plan in a few sentences but most of what DoD is going to do is shelter-in-place and reduce interactions. Their role here is very passive. There could be some logistical support, opening up stocks of medical supplies for example or building hospitals. They will also aid the government with surveillance, no, not the NSA spying kind just screening for cases amongst personnel and likely their dependents. If need be they will supplement some state and national agencies but the typically shown apocalyptic scenario where they’re running around in gas masks and suits like in The Crazies isn’t part of the plan. They don’t want people to come in contact with personnel, especially since those servicemembers all live and work in the same place and would easily spread any disease amongst them. Force protection, operability, and maintaining manpower is the goal right now.DoD would also not send National Guardsmen overseas and they would remain in their home states to be used by their Governor if needed.With the current pandemic there will likely be no widespread, direct, active-duty military involvement, at least not the way portrayed in movies. Even active-duty chem-bio incident response units are unlikely to be used, this is not a situation that they are really suited for. (No pun intended.) If it got to the point where the bodies were literally piling up in stadiums, which I doubt, maybe they would be utilized to move cadavers but they don’t bring anything appropriate to this fight right now. They mostly concentrate on more acute bioterror events such as the anthrax attacks after 9/11 or operating in irradiated areas or those hit by chemical agents. Containment of a pandemic is not in their playbook at all.Now, finally, on to the bioterrorism part. There is a plan for this as well, CONPLAN 3500 CBRNE CM.[12] (Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear, high-yield Explosion Consequence Management.) I’d tell you what’s in it but it’s classified Secret. I have never seen it so I’m not saying that to imply that I do know, I don’t. It’s not publicly available and there have been FOIA requests made for redacted versions but DoD has declined all these requests. However, the fact that it’s only Secret kind of implies it doesn’t entail murder, so I’m confident killing civilians isn’t mentioned there either.Very little of what’s in there is known to the public and it isn’t particularly informative either. That said, the biological part is probably fairly similar to CONPLAN 3551. When it comes to bioterror the scariest threat is something like Smallpox, Ebola, Marburg, Tularemia, Lassa, or Plague but they are also the least likely agents to be used.[13] The vast majority of bioterror attacks have been more acute in nature, mainly agents such as Anthrax or Botulinum Toxin.However, neither of the latter can be transmitted from human to human so it’s easily contained, unless someone crop dusted an area with anthrax spores it’s not realistic to see large incidents.[14] There are also sentinel systems in some heavily trafficked places, think Grand Central, around the US that would detect such agents if they were exposed to them. Then it’s just a matter of coming in, decontaminating the area, and treating the affected. It should also be noted that there are millions of vaccines and treatments for anthrax available if the need arises, procured by Project Bioshield.[15] Bioterror, as it stands today, is more about creating fear than causing death.Even if smallpox were used it wouldn’t be as effective as it would have fifteen years or so ago. HHS has stockpiles of smallpox vaccines spread throughout the country and with 90% of the population within one hour of these centers. As it stands today there are enough vaccines for the entirety of the US population, with the stockpiles currently undergoing replenishment.[16] [17] (Thousands of servicemembers are vaccinated every year usually before an overseas deployment or if in a chem-bio unit, I’ve still got the scar.)Finally, as to why the system isn’t put into play? Well, it is, at least on the military side. The concepts, systems, and tactics for a widespread bioterror event and that of a natural pandemic are not that dissimilar.While the 2009-2010 H1N1 pandemic was a naturally occurring disease outbreak and not a deliberate attack, the symptoms, infection rates and response mechanisms associated with the virus could be similar to the impacts of a deliberate attack employing a contagious biological agent.Unlike nuclear or chemical weapons that have clearly identifiable signatures, biological agents may be disseminated covertly, and therefore they may not be identified immediately. The first indication of a biological event could be more numerous-than-expected hospital visits in a particular location, or in a group of people who were in the same location at the same time.Whether natural or deliberate, biological outbreaks will have similar impacts on employee absenteeism, school and work closures, the availability and distribution of medical and non-medical countermeasures, and mortality rates.While influenza is not a viable biological warfare (BW) agent, the H1N1 outbreak provided the U.S. Government and the Military Services an opportunity to identify and assess valuable lessons learned that can be applied in the event of a deliberate BW attack. It also can provide insight into how to improve DoD responses to future WMD attacks.[18]The military took that H1N1 pandemic seriously and did almost the exact thing they are doing today:DoD also responded to the H1N1 pandemic by enacting the social distancing measures called for in USNORTHCOM CONPLAN 3551 with the goal of mitigating the spread of the disease. As early as April 2009, U.S. Pacific Command (PACOM) issued a message to U.S. forces within its area of responsibility stressing the importance of preventative measures against the virus.The message included simple social distancing precautions, such as “staying at home when sick; covering your mouth and nose when coughing or sneezing; washing your hands regularly; avoiding touching your nose, mouth or eyes; and seeking medical care if you are ill.”Social distancing measures were particularly necessary at the U.S. Army’s Fort Jackson, through which more than 50,000 Initial Entry Training Soldiers pass each year and where H1N1 cases were “steadily climbing.”…Force health protection measures continued throughout the summer of 2009 while the H1N1 vaccine was under development. The Services updated and tested the USNORTHCOM-directed disease containment plans and mitigation measures, including social distancing, working from alternate locations and other non-medical countermeasures. At Fort Jackson, for example, the Army instituted social distancing through “sick-in-quarters,” an isolated area on-post for confirmed H1N1 cases, and took additional prevention measures, asking all soldiers to re-arrange their bunks to sleep head-to-toe “so that if one coughs or sneezes during the night, the other soldier is on the opposite end of the dispersion droplets.”These social distancing measures were essential to protecting the health of the force. According to Department of the Navy (DON) Work/Life Program Manager Karen Meyer, “40 percent of flu cases could be prevented by stopping the spread of germs.” She further noted that “avoiding human contact by ‘social distancing’ was and remains the most effective method of minimizing the effects of the pandemic flu emergency.”To that end, the DON practiced teleworking (working from an alternate location) and appointed telework coordinators at each of the Navy’s Major Commands. While not everyone in DON was eligible to telework—either because of the sensitive nature of the work or because of mission requirements—allowing even a portion of the Department to work remotely limited the spread of the disease.[19]I’m sure we’ve all heard something similar to this on the news the past few days. The system is almost the exact same at this level. While the viruses are different the basic protections and actions remain obviously connected.So I think that’s enough for now, if I have to add to this later I might but I think this does an okay job upfront. If you have questions about the virus, the pandemic, or need rumors to be dispelled I’d suggest going here: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) or here: Coronavirus and to read the CDC’s CONPLAN for a pandemic you can check that out here: CDC Influenza Pandemic Operation Plan (OPLAN)To quote Douglas Adams, “Don’t Panic.”Footnotes[1] https://www.public.navy.mil/bupers-npc/reference/messages/Documents/NAVADMINS/NAV2020/NAV20033.txt[2] https://www.governmentattic.org/8docs/NORTHCON_CONPLAN_3551-09_2009.pdf[3] U.S. MARINE CORPS DISEASE CONTAINMENT PREPAREDNESS PLANNING GUIDANCE FOR 2019 NOVEL CORONAVIRUS > United States Marine Corps Flagship > Messages Display[4] US Marines Are Coming To A Local Community Near You! (Or, The Covid-19 Plan Sounds A Lot Like Martial Law)[5] [Leaked] Military Containment Documents for Novel Coronavirus: R 112111Z FEB - Pastebin.com[6] UPDATE #3: U.S MARINE CORPS DISEASE CONTAINMENT PREPAREDNESS PLANNING GUIDANCE FOR 2019 NOVEL CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19); STOP MOVEMENT > United States Marine Corps Flagship > Messages Display[7] UPDATE #1: U.S. MARINE CORPS DISEASE CONTAINMENT PREPAREDNESS PLANNING GUIDANCE FOR 2019 NOVEL CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19); COMMANDERS’ RISK-BASED MEASURED RESPONSES > United States Marine Corps Flagship > Messages Display[8] UPDATE #2: U.S MARINE CORPS DISEASE CONTAINMENT PREPAREDNESS PLANNING GUIDANCE FOR 2019 NOVEL CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19); TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS AND PERSONNEL GUIDANCE FOR TRAVEL > United States Marine Corps Flagship > Messages Display[9] https://www.islandpacket.com/news/coronavirus/article241264976.html[10] https://www.governmentattic.org/8docs/NORTHCON_CONPLAN_3551-09_2009.pdf[11] https://nsarchive.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/pandemic.pdf[12] https://info.publicintelligence.net/USNORTHCOM-Overview.pdf[13] http://documents.theblackvault.com/documents/biological/MedAspectsBio.pdf[14] https://www.oodaloop.com/documents/Legacy/asis/13apr99APIC-CDCBioterrorism.pdf[15] MedicalCountermeaures.gov - Home[16] https://www.researchgate.net/publication/235040924_US_Strategy_for_Bioterrorism_Emergency_Medical_Preparedness_and_Response[17] HHS Purchases Smallpox Vaccine to Enhance Biodefense Preparedness[18] https://media.defense.gov/2019/Apr/11/2002115515/-1/-1/0/51DODBIOTHREAT.PDF[19] https://media.defense.gov/2019/Apr/11/2002115515/-1/-1/0/51DODBIOTHREAT.PDF

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