17 00 2:39 Pm: Fill & Download for Free

This is exceedingly important, and if you are a US citizen, it is nothing less than your duty to understand the full significance of these text messages. If you only read one of my answers this year, I would like this to be the one. I can’t remember another answer I have written on a matter of graver importance.First, we need to introduce a few characters.Kurt Volker. Career diplomat. He’s worked for the CIA, State Department, and National Security Council. He has also been the United States Permanent Representative to NATO. Most recently, he was the Special Representative for Ukraine from July 2017 to his resignation in late September 2019.Andriy Yermak. Friend and aide to Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky. He is the man entrusted to negotiate both with the US and with Russia.Gordon Sondland. Hotel tycoon. Republican donor. Currently, he is the United States Ambassador to the European Union. He has been in the news in the past couple of days because he was supposed to appear for a closed-door deposition to which he had been summoned because Republican Senator Ron Johnson stated to the Wall Street Journal that Sondland had told him back in August that the military aid passed by the US Congress and blocked by the Trump administration would only be released if Ukraine agreed to the investigation Trump wanted.[1] Trump instructed Sondland not to cooperate, so the deposition did not happen as scheduled. Sondland has now been subpoenaed.[2]Bill Taylor. West Point and Harvard graduate. Career diplomat. Former ambassador to Ukraine. Currently the Chargé d'affaires for Ukraine since 2019.All right. Now that we have our cast of characters, let’s proceed to examine the most important exchanges.July 19 2019.[7/19/19, 4:49:42 PM] Kurt Volker: Can we three do a call tomorrow—say noon WASHINGTON?[7/19/19, 6:50:29 PM] Gordon Sondland: Looks like Potus call tomorrow. I spike [sic] directly to Zelensky and gave him a full briefing. He’s got it.[7/19/19, 6:52:57 PM] Gordon Sondland: Sure![7/19/19, 7:01:22 PM] Kurt Volker: Good. Had breakfast with Rudy this morning-teeing up call w Yermak Monday. Must have helped. Most impt is for Zelensky to say that he will help investigation—and address any specific personnel issues—if there are anyThe American diplomats have talked to the Ukrainian president in anticipation of a phone call between the US and Ukrainian presidents, and the most important thing the US side is asking for is help with the investigation into the US president’s rival.July 21 2019.[7/21/19, 1:45:54 AM] Bill Taylor: Gordon, one thing Kurt and I talked about yesterday was Sasha Danyliuk’s point that President Zelenskyy is sensitive about Ukraine being taken seriously, not merely as an instrument in Washington domestic, reelection politics.[7/21/19, 4:45:44 AM] Gordon Sondland: Absolutely, but we need to get the conversation started and the relationship built, irrespective of the pretext. I am worried about the alternative.The US diplomat in Ukraine is conveying the message that the Ukrainian president doesn’t want to be a mere tool in the reelection of the US president. He wants Ukrainian issues—namely the fact that there is a Russian military intervention in Eastern Ukraine—to be taken seriously.There would be no need to state that Zelensky doesn’t want to be a tool in US reelection politics if this wasn’t what was happening.Sondland replies that he is in agreement [that Ukraine and Zelensky need to be taken seriously] but he sees getting a relationship and conversation established between Trump and Zelensky as really important. And if this request for an intervention is what it takes, so be it. Otherwise, the alternative will be an isolated Ukraine, left to fend for itself against Russia.July 25, 2019, day of the famous phone call.[7/25/19, 8:36:45 AM] Kurt Volker: Good lunch - thanks. Heard from White House—assuming President Z convinces trump he will investigate / “get to the bottom of what happened” in 2016, we will nail down date for visit to Washington. Good luck! See you tomorrow- kurtQuid pro quo.Quid: Zelensky convinces Trump he will investigate the Crowdstrike conspiracy theory.[3]Quo: Zelensky gets to visit Washington.Why is visiting Washington such a big deal for Zelensky? He gets to show the world—and Russia—that there is no daylight between Kiev and Washington.It is important to note the contrast between what the two countries are negotiating for. Zelensky wants something for the benefit of Ukraine. Trump wants something for the benefit of Trump. He wants a personal favor.Favor… let’s return to that word in the infamous July 25 phone call:Zelensky is talking about cooperation “in the area of defense”:[4]I would also like to thank you for your great support in the area of defense. We are ready to continue to cooperate for the next steps. specifically we are almost ready to buy more Javelins from the United States for defense purposes.Trump immediately replies:I would like you to do us a favor though because our country has been through a lot and Ukraine knows a lot about it. I would like you to find out what happened with this whole situation with Ukraine, they say Crowdstrike... I guess you have one of your wealthy people... The server, they say Ukraine has it. There are a lot of things that went on, the whole situation. I think you’re surrounding yourself with some of the same people. I would like to have the Attorney General call you or your people and I would like you to get to the bottom of it.Yes, yes, I know you want to talk about getting assistance from us in your fight against Russia-backed separatists in Eastern Ukraine, but I need you to do me a favor, though… I would like you to investigate this conspiracy theory about Crowdstrike.Also…The other thing, There’s a lot of talk about Biden’s son, that Biden stopped the prosecution and a lot of people want to find out about that so whatever you can do with the Attorney General would be great. Biden went around bragging that he stopped the prosecution so if you can look into it... It sounds horrible to me.What is clear, here, is that this wasn’t a spontaneous Trumpian outburst. Trump had been using the US diplomatic apparatus to request help—not for anything related to US interests, but for his personal campaign.After the phone call, still on July 25, we get this exchange:[7/25/19, 10:15:06 AM] Andrey Yermak: Phone call went well. President Trump proposed to choose any convenient dates. President Zelenskiy chose 20,21,22 September for the White House Visit. Thank you again for your help! Please remind Mr. Mayor to share the Madrid’s dates[7/25/19, 10:16:42 AM] Kurt Volker: Great —thanks and will do!The Ukrainians think they’ve got an agreement, and they’re selecting dates for a meeting. But there’s no deal yet, as they will soon find out.August 9, 2019[8/9/19, 11:27 AM] Kurt Volker: Hi Mr Mayor! Had a good chat with Yermak last night. He was pleased with your phone call. Mentioned Z making a statement. Can we all get on the phone to make sure I advise Z correctly as to what he should be saying? Want to make sure we get this done right. Thanks!Gordon Sondland: Good idea Kurt. I am on Pacific time.Rudy Giuliani: Yes can you call now going to Fundraiser at 12:30The Trump team wants Zelensky to make a public statement about investigating Crowdstrike and Biden. Volker wants to get on the phone to tell the Ukrainian president what he needs to say to satisfy Trump.Later on the same day.8/9/19, 5:35:53 PM] Gordon Sondland: Morrison ready to get dates as soon as Yermak confirms.[8/9/19, 5:46:21 PM] Kurt Volker: Excellent!! How did you sway him? :)[8/9/19, 5:47:34 PM] Gordon Sondland: Not sure i did. I think potus really wants the deliverable[8/9/19, 5:48:00 PM] Kurt Volker: But does he know that?[8/9/19, 5:48:09 PM] Gordon Sondland: Yep[8/9/19, 5:48:37 PM] Gordon Sondland: Clearly lots of convos going on[8/9/19, 5:48:38 PM] Kurt Volker: Ok—then that’s good it’s coming from two separate sources[8/9/19, 5:51:18 PM] Gordon Sondland: To avoid misundestandings, might be helpful to ask Andrey for a draft statememt (embargoed) so that we can see exactly what they propose to cover. Even though Ze does a live presser they can still summarize in a brief statement. Thoughts?[8/9/19, 5:51:42 PM] Kurt Volker: Agree!Trump wants “the deliverable.” He doesn’t just want a promise that Ukraine will help with his pet investigation; he wants to see “a draft statement” of a public declaration by the Ukrainian president.Can we all dispense with the notion that Trump is seeking to fight corruption in Ukraine? There is nothing demanded of the Ukrainians that would do anything about corruption in general. There are only 2 issues of concern to Trump:The idiotic conspiracy theory about Crowdstrike.Digging up dirt on Biden and his son.Let’s remember for a moment that Sondland, one of the people involved in this travesty of diplomacy, told a Republican Senator that this was the reason why military aid was being held from Ukraine.August 10 2019[8/10/19, 4:56:15 PM] Andrey Yermak: Hi Kurt. Please let me know when you can talk. I think it’s possible to make this declaration and mention all these things. Which we discussed yesterday. But it will be logic to do after we receive a confirmation of date. We inform about date of visit and about our expectations and our guarantees for future visit. Let discuss it[8/10/19, 5:01:32 PM] Kurt Volker: Ok! It’s late for you—why don’t we talk in my morning, your afternoon tomorrow? Say 10am/5pm?[8/10/19, 5:02:18 PM] Kurt Volker: I agree with your approach. Let’s iron out statement and use that to get date and then PreZ can go forward with it?[8/10/19, 5:26:17 PM] Andrey Yermak: Ok[8/10/19, 5:38:43 PM] Kurt Volker: Great. Gordon is available to join as well[8/10/19, 5:41:45 PM] Andrey Yermak: Excellent[8/10/ 19, 5:42:10 PM] Andrey Yermak: Once we have a date, will call for a press briefing, announcing upcoming visit and outlining vision for the reboot of US- UKRAINE relationship, including among other things Burisma and election meddling in investigations[8/10/19, 5:42:30 PM] Kurt Volker: Sounds great!Negotiation over the quid pro quo. Ukraine wants to get a meeting date first, then collaborate on drafting a statement with the Trump team to publicly mention Trump’s pet investigations. The Trump diplomats want:Draft the statement first.Show the draft statement to Trump so get him to agree to a specific meeting date.It goes without saying that they would not be doing so if he hadn’t instructed them to. This is certainly not standard diplomatic procedure.August 13, 2019: the Trump diplomats discuss the draft statements they will propose to the Ukrainians:[8/13/19, 10:26:44 AM] Kurt Volker: Special attention should be paid to the problem of interference in the political processes of the United States especially with the alleged involvement of some Ukrainian politicians. I want to declare that this is unacceptable. We intend to initiate and complete a transparent and unbiased investigation of all available facts and episodes, including those involving Burisma and the 2016 U.S. elections, which in turn will prevent the recurrence of this problem in the future.[8/13/19, 10:27:20 AM] Gordon Sondland: Perfect. Lets send to Andrey after our callAugust 17, 2019.[8/17/19, 3:06:19 PM] Gordon Sondland: Do we still want Ze to give us an unequivocal draft with 2016 and Boresma?[8/17/19, 4:34:21 PM] Kurt Volker: That’s the clear message so far ...[8/17/19, 4:34:39 PM] Kurt Volker: I’m hoping we can put something out there that causes him to respond with that[8/17/19, 4:41:09 PM] Gordon Sondland: Unless you think otherwise I will return Andreys call tomorrow and suggest they send us a clean draft.Again, the Ukrainians have still not gotten a meeting date. They can’t get a meeting (quo) until they submit a draft statement (quid) showing that their president will publicly pledge to pursue Trump’s pet investigations.On August 28, a story appears in Politico explaining that Trump is withholding the Congress-approved military aid package to Ukraine. [5]The same day, we get these messages:[8/29/19, 2:28:19 AM] Andrey Yermak: Need to talk with you[8/29/19, 3:06:14 AM] Andrey Yermak: https://www.politico.com/story/2019/08/28/trump-ukraine-military-aid-russia- 1689531[8/29/19, 6:55:04 AM] Kurt Volker: Hi Andrey - absolutely. When is good for you?The Ukrainians are understandably not too happy about this. Presumably this is what the talk will be about. This is also the moment when Senator Ron Johnson, who is supportive of military assistance to Ukraine, is seeking answers from Sondland and Trump about why exactly the aid package is being delayed. Sondland tells him it’s about the investigations requested by Trump. Trump denies it when confronted. [6]August 30, 2019[8/30/19, 12:14:57 AM] Bill Taylor: Trip canceled[8/30/19, 12:16:02 AM] Kurt Volker: Hope VPOTUS keeps the bilat – and tees up WH visit...[8/30/19, 12:16:18 AM] Kurt Volker: And hope Gordon and Perry still going…[8/30/19, 5:31:14 AM] Gordon Sondland: I am going. Pompeo is speaking to Potus today to see if he can go.The trip where Trump and Zelensky were supposed to meet is canceled.September 1, 2019[9/1/19, 12:08:57 PM] Bill Taylor: Are we now saying that security assistance and WH meeting are conditioned on investigations?[9/1/19, 12:42:29 PM] Gordon Sondland: Call meBill Taylor almost sounds incredulous. Not only the White House meeting but also the military assistance depend on Ukraine acceding to Trump’s demands.This isn’t just a quid pro quo; it’s extortion. Trump is holding the official US foreign policy financed by the US Congress hostage to his electoral priorities.Sondland doesn’t think it prudent to reply via text.September 8, 2019[9/8/19, 11:20:32 AM] Gordon Sondland: Guys multiple convos with Ze, Potus. Lets talk[9/8/19, 11:21:41 AM] Bill Taylor: Now is fine with me[9/8/19, 11:26:13 AM] Kurt Volker: Try again—could not hear[9/8/19, 11:40:11 AM] Bill Taylor: Gordon and I just spoke. I can brief you if you and Gordon don’t connect[9/8/19, 12:37:28 PM] Bill Taylor: The nightmare is they give the interview and don’t get the security assistance. The Russians love it. (And I quit.)Bill Taylor, the top diplomat in Ukraine, is worried that even if Ukraine complies with releasing the statement Trump wants, they still might not get the military assistance approved by Congress. Russia would be thrilled. And Taylor would quit in protest.September 9, 2019[9/9/19, 12:31:06 AM] Bill Taylor: The message to the Ukrainians (and Russians) we send with the decision on security assistance is key. With the hold, we have already shaken their faith in us. Thus my nightmare scenario.[9/9/19, 12:34:44 AM] Bill Taylor: Counting on you to be right about this interview, Gordon.[9/9/19, 12:37:16 AM] Gordon Sondland: Bill, I never said I was “right”. I said we are where we are and believe we have identified the best pathway forward. Lets hope it works.[9/9/19, 12:47:11 AM] Bill Taylor: As I said on the phone, I think it’s crazy to withhold security assistance for help with a political campaign.[9/9/19, 5:19:35 AM] Gordon Sondland: Bill, I believe you are incorrect about President Trump’s intentions. The President has been crystal clear no quid pro quo’s of any kind. The President is trying to evaluate whether Ukraine is truly going to adopt the transparency and reforms that President Zelensky promised during his campaign I suggest we stop the back and forth by text If you still have concerns I recommend you give Lisa Kenna or S a call to discuss them directly. Thanks.Bill Taylor is again worried that the US-Ukraine relationship has been jeopardized with the withholding of the funds earmarked for security assistance, which Ukraine rightly sees as a problem of the utmost importance.“I think it’s crazy to withhold security assistance for help with a political campaign.”Sondland denies it over text, but it’s hard to take his denial seriously unless you’re already committed to voting for Trump:It’s the exact opposite of what he told Senator Johnson.It has the exact air of a man saying “I want to make it crystal clear that this is NOT a shakedown” even as he shakes you down.So, let’s recapitulate.The US Congress adopted as its official foreign policy the provision of military assistance to Ukraine, a US ally battling a Russian-backed separatist war in its Eastern territory.The president of the United States, with no good explanation, failed to release the appropriated funds to the Ukrainian government.The president of the United States used the machinery of US diplomacy to request assistance with pet investigations meant for his personal benefit.The Crowdstrike story is a conspiracy theory so idiotic that it is a scandal in itself that a president of the US could have believed in it. It is yet one more piece of evidence that rather than obtaining his information from security briefings, Trump gets his information from right-wing conspiracy media outlets.The Ukrainian prosecutor who was fired was fired not because Biden was trying to protect his son but because the EU, the IMF, the US, and Ukrainian reform advocates demanded his departure precisely because he wasn’t doing enough to fight corruption.[7]The president made both a meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart and the release of Congress-approved military assistance contingent on having the Ukrainian president provide him with assistance in his reelection campaign.Irrespective of your own opinion on the matter, this is precisely how both the top US diplomat on the ground and the Ukrainian president saw it.This man must be removed from office. He is a malignant cancer to the norms of good governance. His subversion of the machinery of diplomacy to the furtherance of his own purposes is completely unacceptable.Footnotes[1] Trump, in August Call With GOP Senator, Denied Official’s Claim on Ukraine Aid[2] Democrats subpoena Gordon Sondland after Trump intervenes[3] Trump seized on a conspiracy theory called the 'insurance policy.' Now, it's at the center of an impeachment investigation.[4] Full Document: Trump’s Call With the Ukrainian President[5] Trump holds up Ukraine military aid meant to confront Russia[6] Trump, in August Call With GOP Senator, Denied Official’s Claim on Ukraine Aid[7] Why Was Ukraine's Top Prosecutor Fired? The Issue At The Heart Of The Dispute Gripping Washington

Tracking History for USPSIt took 22 days from Texas,USA to Dhaka,Bangladesh for the delivery of the package.April 3, 2019, 4:05 pmDeliveredBANGLADESHYour item was delivered in BANGLADESH at 4:05 pm on April 3, 2019.April 2, 2019, 3:41 pmAttempted Delivery - Scheduled for another delivery attempt todayBANGLADESHApril 2, 2019, 9:00 amArrival at Post OfficeBANGLADESHApril 1, 2019, 1:10 pmProcessed through FacilityDHAKA FOREIGN POST OFFICE, BANGLADESHApril 1, 2019, 10:02 amCustoms Clearance Processing CompleteBANGLADESHMarch 28, 2019, 2:59 pmProcessed Through FacilityBANGLADESHMarch 28, 2019, 5:02 amCustoms ClearanceBANGLADESHMarch 25, 2019, 6:51 pmDepartedDHAKA, BANGLADESHMarch 25, 2019, 11:13 amDepartedDUBAI, UNITED ARAB EMIRATESMarch 23, 2019, 11:31 pmDepartedNEW YORK, UNITED STATESMarch 23, 2019, 1:04 pmArrivedNEW YORK, UNITED STATESMarch 22, 2019, 2:11 pmProcessed Through Regional FacilityJAMAICA NY INTERNATIONAL DISTRIBUTION CENTERMarch 22, 2019, 2:08 pmArrived at Regional FacilityJAMAICA NY INTERNATIONAL DISTRIBUTION CENTERMarch 22, 2019In Transit to Next FacilityMarch 20, 2019, 2:38 pmDeparted USPS Regional FacilityCHICAGO IL INTERNATIONAL DISTRIBUTION CENTERMarch 20, 2019, 2:19 pmArrived at USPS Regional FacilityCHICAGO IL INTERNATIONAL DISTRIBUTION CENTERMarch 18, 2019, 6:59 pmDeparted USPS Regional FacilityNORTH HOUSTON TX DISTRIBUTION CENTERMarch 17, 2019, 3:18 pmArrived at USPS Regional FacilityNORTH HOUSTON TX DISTRIBUTION CENTERMarch 12, 2019, 3:39 pmUSPS in possession of itemTX

East-India:- 48–69/117(46/117 in 2014)West-Bengal:-8–12 seats(2/42 in 2014).There will be a bipolar contest between BJP and AITC. Left Front & INC may have an alliance but that will be not much helpful as both were strong in districts like Malda & Murshidabad and that alliance cost them heavily 2016 Assembly elections. AITC which was not strong in those districts became a powerful force. After elections almost all the Chairpersons of Municipalities went to AITC from INC-LEFT. AITC dominates in other parts of WB. BJP is very strong in Jangalmahal (Western Tribal Belt) & North Bengal. Both these regions have considerable Tribal Influence. There is also polarisation happening which will ultimately benefit both BJP & TMC reducing LEFT-INC to a meagre force. There is almost no possibility of TMC-INC alliance and if that happens INC may retain their seats of Malda-Murshidabad which will be a loss for TMC. So,TMC will never want to lose those seats. Panchayat elections show BJP is the dominating force atleast in Western Part and recognisable in other parts.(Note that LS elections will be held properly)BJP may lose Darjeeling seat.Odisha:-08–12 seats (01/21 in 2014)BJP already stood Second in Panchayat Polls. It is the dominating force in Western Odisha which is Tribal strong hold. Jaya Panda quitting BJD is a huge loss for them. Assembly elections will be also there so BJP will leave no chance to conquer this Coastal State. There are very less chances of BJD-INC alliance.Bihar:- 25–35/40 (31 in 2014)NDA (BJP+JDU+LJP+RLSP):- 35 seats.NDA (BJP+JDU):- 25–30 seats.NDA (BJP+LJP+RLSP):- 25 seats.BJP:- 20 seats.Jharkhand:- 07–10(12 in 2014)It will depend upon the tactics of opposition. Opposition unity is the key factor here also.North-East:- 17–22/25 (11 in 2014)Assam:- 10–11/14. (07 in 2014)BJP is in alliance with AGP & BPF. There may be some tension in seat distribution but BPF is set to win it's Tribal seat,BJP to retain its seat. If INC-AIUDF has an alliance, INC will lose its Hindu support Base also. It may happen that AIUDF won all its 3 seats which they won in 2014 while Congress got Zero.Megahalaya:- 02/02. (01/02 in 2014)NPP will win Tura Loksabha seat and NDA (not BJP alone) may win another seat also.Manipur:- 02/02. (00/02 in 2014)BJP will win the Hindu Meetei Dominated Valley seat while it's alliance partner NDPP or NPF will win Christian Naga-Kuki Dominated seat. (Note that NPF is also the part of NEDA and of NDA in Manipur. It is not in alliance with BJP in Nagaland)Mizoram:- 00–01/01 (00/01 in 2014)BJP-MNF alliance can defeat Congress in both Assembly elections 2018 and 2019 polls but BJP & INC are having post-poll alliance in Chakma Body polls to stop MNF!Arrunachal Pradesh:- 2/2 (1/2 in 2014)Tripura:- 02/02 (00/02 in 2014)Sikkim:- 01/01 (01/01 in 2014)SDF will win this lone seat of Sikkim i.e, NDA.South India:- 20–30/132 (20 in 2014)I have not included PMK & TDP in 2014’s tally.Andhra Pradesh:- 00/25 (2/25 in 2014)Telengana:- 01–02/17 (01 in 2014)BJP may retain it's seat of Secundrabad and can win seats like Karimnagar.Tamil Nadu:- 01/39 (01/39 in 2014)Hopefully,BJP will retain it's Kanyakumari seat if Christian votes get divided again.Kerala:- 01–02/20 (00/20 in 2014)BJP can win Thiruvanthapuram seat and if tries hard,gets support of Church can win seats like Kottayam. KJ Alphons is a good candidate.Puduchery:- 00–01/01 (01/01 in 2014)BJP-AINRC will defeat INC if BJP supports AINRC against their common rival INCLakshwadeep:- 00–01/01 (00/01 in 2014)If current NCP MP joins BJP,it is very much possible to win this constituency with more than 97% Muslims.Andaman-Nicobar:- 01/01(1/1 in 2014)Karnataka:- 17–22(17/28 in 2014)BJP will repeat repeat the perfomance of 2018 Assembly elections in Bombay & Central Karnataka,Coastal Karnataka(Tulu Nadu+Kodagu). In Hyderabad Karnataka BJP may not do well while in Mysore region BJP now has a chance as the two main rivals of Mysuru have joined hands. 2+2 is not 4 in Politics,So definitely INC+JD (S) will have a tough fight then.West-India:- 55–70/104 (97/104 in 2014)Gujarat:- 20–25/26 (26/26 in 2014)We have to note that in Assembly elections, people voted for Rupani and not Modi. There will be certainly a Modi wave again. After all, A Party always gets benefitted by it’s candidate's state. It can win minimum 20 seats.Goa:- 02/02 (02/02 in 2014)Maharashtra:- 20–25/48 (42 in 2014)BJP VS SS VS (NCP+INC):- BJP can easily win 20–25 seats. There will be division of votes who will vote against Centre.BJP VS (SS+NCP+INC):- Situation will be same here. SS will face some loss. It may lose it's core voter Base which supports this party due to Hindutva but again, SS may get some benefit due to Marathi Card. So,BJP may win 20–25 seats. If,AIMIM is also included in the opposition,it will polarise voters on religious lines and then BJP may get 30–35 seats.NDA VS REST:- NDA will repeat it's perfomance of 2014.Rajasthan:- 10–15/25 (25/25 in 2014)Assembly elections of 2018 will decide the fate of BJP. However,even if BJP loses elections it will be not like 1999 & 2009 when BJP got only 04 seats out of 25. This is the election to choose Modi,So we can say BJP will get atleast 10 seats. We have to wait till 2018 Assembly elections.Daman & Diu:- 1 (1/1 in 2014)Dadra:- 1 (1/1 in 2014)Hill States:- 12/15 (12/15 in 2014)Jammu & Kashmir.Kashmir:- 00/03 (00/03 in 2014):- NC will win all the seats of Kashmir. PDP has very less chance of winning here.Jammu:-02/02. BJP will get back it's Jammu-Hindu support Base after dumping PDP.Ladakh:- 01/01 (01/01 in 2014):-Uttarakhand:- 05/05 (05/05 in 2014)Himachal Pradesh:- 4/4(4/4 in 2014)Central India:- 25–29/40 (37/40 in 2014)Assembly elections will have a impact on these states in LS,Modi Charisma may overshadow the losses in Assembly elections.Madhya Pradesh:-18–20 (27/29 in 2014)Chattisgarh:- 07–9/11 (10/11 in 2014)North India:- 54–66/111 (88/111 in 2014)Haryana:- 05/10 (08/10 in 2014)People(Jats) are not happy with a non-JAT CM. Also,the law and order situation was worst at the time of arrest of Baba Ram Rahul & other fake Babas. It will be great if BJP manages to win atleast 5 seats. People may vote due to Modi Charisma.Punjab:- 03/13 (06/13 in 2014)Chandigarh:- 01/01 (1/1 in 2014)Delhi:- 05–07/07 (07/07 in 2014)Uttar-Pradesh:- 40–50/80 (73/80 in 2014)BSP-SP alliance may not work on ground. Whether Yadavas will vote for a Dalit Candidate and Dalits will vote for a Yadav candidate will be interesting to see. Non-Yadav OBCs in Awadh & Eastern UP will decide the fate of BJP. In Western UP,BJP has to appease Jats. However,Western UP is always divided on religious lines. Congress may get only 2 seats to contest which will play spoilsport for the Opposition. BJP managed to get 40%-50% votes in bypolls only which had very low turnout. Modi was not there to ask for votes but in 2019,the election will be to choose Modi, he will organise rallies. People will vote for Modi. His Charisma will work. So,it will be not like bypolls. BJP will easily win 40 to 50seats in UP.So,BJP will get near 270 seats.Minimum:- 241Maximum:- 298Depending upon the situation,BJP(NDA-SS) will get 250 to 300 seats. Assembly elections of Rajasthan,Chattisgarh,Madhya Pradesh & Mizoram will also have some impact. Issues like Ram Temple,Article 370 may make or destroy BJP’s prospects!Always,Remember this is MODI-SHAH era and not ADVANI-VAJPAYEE era. So,anything can happen.:-)