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1 Question What is the effect of Brexit on the City of London and on Financial Services in the UK, in terms of lost business, lesser annual income and reduced staff in the UK services sector?2 Answer Brexit has a substantial effect on the City of London and on Financial Services in the UK, in terms of lost business, lesser annual income and reduced staff in the UK financial services sector.3 Discussion This Answer attempts to integrate the financial effects by reconciling several of the sources of published internet data by recognising that the major issues relating to the effect of Brexit on the City Of London and on British Financial Services areThe loss of Euro-business in London is not an event, it is a processThe process of disentanglement of EU business from the City of London started four years ago and is about a third ($400 bn out of $1.2 tr,) has been relocated but there’s still $800bn to goDublin is the major winner from Euro business relocation and although Frankfurt and Paris bankers make the most noise, Amsterdam is also a major winner of Euro business decoupling from the City of LondonI am grateful to Chris Le Carlin for requesting the source detail of my previous article on this subject.This réponse is not as complete as I would wish, but the subject is so large and complex this will have to do.4 The Historical and one recent article on this subject and ECB guidelinesThere ia a lot to this issue and there may be over a hundred internet articles on this topic. I have selected a few of these and quoted them as sources below and there is one which gives the historical background ro the development of the City of London:Future of the City: how London’s reach will shrink after BrexitAnd there is a second article authored by Sarah Graham from EY, outlining part of the current position:EY Financial Services Brexit Tracker: Financial Services Firms continue moving staff ahead of Brexit deadline, with total jobs relocating from London to Europe now over 7,500The useful ECB guidelines can be read at:https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/banking/relocating/html/index.en.htmlaThese three articles are relatively objective. Many articles written by Brexiteers are partisan, trying to prove the superiority of the Brexit policy, and are best ignored, for they are too one-sided to be useful. Others, such as one commissioned by the Corporation of London, appears to be an attempt to minimise the financial effects of the Brexit decoupling by quoting minimal City of London losses of earnings, as might be required by their paymasters.Few of the partisan articles are useful. The absence of a balanced attitude plus frequent exaggeration or data minimisation results in viewpoints which are more misleading than objective and most of these articles do not present any overall context.5 A Suggested Framework For Understanding The Ongoing Financial DecouplingThere are five major factors which are relevant to our understanding of the data and comments relating to Brexit financial decoupling of the Euro business from the UK financial sectors; we need to be clear aboutTo what geographical part of the UK financial business does the data refer, to the 85,000 staff in the City of London or the 2.2 million financial services staff in the rest of the UK?does the financial data given relate to the total City of London Euro business exceeding $1.2 tr. or to the earnings of these trillions which are usually quoted as less than $30bn?what is the intellectual provenance of the authors of the report, it it being produced and paid for by interested parties or those with political motives to “prove” a specific result?What does the ECB objective of completing the transfer of Euro business to EU banks mean, and how realistic is that 18-month objective? AndWhat does Angela Merkel mean when she says that the ECB might not always support the Euro?These questions and many others are partially discussed below.5.1 Viewpoints resulting from examining the EY.com article within my proposed frameworkI cannot directly quote at length from the September 2020 Sarah Graham EY article at https://www.ey.com/en_uk/news/2020/09/ey-financial-services-brexit-tracker-fs-firms-continue-moving-staff-ahead-of-brexit-deadline without having this Answer deleted by Quora moderators on the grounds of plagiarism. What I can do is paraphrase and place this author’s analysis within the appropriate contextsWhen Sarah Graham says that 7,500 staff have recently been relocated to EU capitals, I judge she is saying so within the context of the City of London. She further identifies that during the last quarter some 400 UK financial services jobs were thus relocated.EU firms increased recruitment by 2,850 new jobs during the last four years, and this comment is in the context of City of London relocated new rolesThe major identifiable asset transfer is from the City of London to EU capitals, and the EY Financial Services Brexit Tracker has valued these as being worth over £1.2 trillionThe major EU capitals gaining previously City of London asset transfers are Dublin, Luxembourg, Frankfurt, and Paris5.2 From other sources, it seems that only $400m of Eurobusiness assets has been transferred so far from London to other UK capitals. About $800m. of such assets remain to be transferred. It should be noted thatThe rate of asset transfer from London to EU capitals since the referendum four years ago has been at an average of $100m of assets a yearThe ECB suggestion/demand that the remaining $800m. of assets should be transferred to EU capital banks within 18 months would require an annual transfer rate of over $530m a year or $44m a month, over five times higher than the historic average rate during the last four yearsThe suggested ECB very high speed of asset transfer may make an adequate due diligence assessment of asset risks very difficultSome of these asset transfers may involve high risksThe response of Angela Merkel to the riskiness of these rapid transfers is to say “The ECB may not support the Euro” if EU banks fail to minimise these associated risksThis statement from the German Chancellor reflects her previous behaviour of running the EU as if it were a German Reich.When the ECB previously extended loans to Greece, allegedly to support Greek economic recovery, over 80% of that ECB loan was earmarked for the repayment of German bank loansWhat Angela Merkel may actually mean, judging from her previous behaviour, may be that “Germany through the ECB will act to assist Frankfurt Banks if they get into difficulty but so such support will be offered to Euro business loan failures in Dublin, Amsterdam or Paris.”5.3 Again from other sourcesThe Eurobusiness financial services partially provided from the UK regions and Scotland by the 2.2 million people not in London might involve a loss of about 100,000 jobs (or about 4.5% of existing staff)The likely loss of City of London financial services jobs has been assessed as about 14% of these currently employed, or about 50,000 lost jobs, That number could double if supporting services are taken into account.So the total loss of financial services jobs in both the City of London and in the rest of the UK could amount to between 150,000 to 200,000 jobs due to Brexit5.4 Other interesting ObservationsThe “headline is the story” in many of these 5.5 headed internet references and that headline can be read there in the internet address with the detail at length in the internet location5.5 Eight Relevant Internet Locations Follow: Please note the dates on Each5.5.1 See Bloomberg at 4 December 2020London Has Lost Its Clout, Brexit Deal or No Brexit Deal atAnd at 28 January 2020A Brutal Brexit Is Lose-Lose for the City of London and the EU5.5.2 See the Guardian at 23 June 2017[A three -year old article but still relevant]London could lose out as ECB seeks control of euro clearing after Brexit which is headlined with“London could lose out as ECB seeks control of euro clearing after Brexit:European Central Bank’s bid for more powers represents challenge to City’s dominance of £880bn-a-day business”The article was produced after one year Into the Brexit process and states“The move by the Frankfurt-based ECB – the central bank for the 19 countries using the euro – follows a report by the European commission that called for the EU to have more powers over clearing of financial products denominated in euros after Brexit.”That attitude has not changed.5.5.3 See Reuters comments at August 5th 2020City of London faces messy future with the EUWhich says“Central to the argument is whether Brussels deems UK financial rules “equivalent” or aligned with the EU’s. Britain says this should be straightforward given both sides have the same rules at the outset.But last month Brussels said it wouldn’t allow banks in London to offer wholesale investment services to EU investors, piling pressure on the City to shift more activity to continental hubs.”5.4.4 See the Economist Article at 24 October 2020[Article somehow deleted - will insert later]Which˙ says “Thousands of jobs and well over £1trn ($1.3trn) of assets have already been shifted to continental Europe as City firms confront this new friction.”I think this is loose talk of the kind often printed in the Economist. While assets of c$1.2tr plus are subject to being relocated from the City of London to EU banks that amount does not seem, from other sources, to have been relocated yet.5.4.5 See the LSE article at 20 March 2020The biggest threat to the City of London is now uncertaintyWhich says among other things“Brexit will have negative effects for the City of London, and the preliminary results of our analysis suggest that such effects will be substantial. The City of London may lose up to £18 billion in revenue and up to 30,000 jobs by leaving the single market (Oliver Wyman 2016). Our analysis suggests that these estimates account for about 15 percent of financial sector revenue and 3 percent of employment in the City. Other estimates show similar magnitudes: £14–20 billion in revenue and 70,000 jobs lost (PWC 2016) or 83,000 jobs lost (EY 2017).According to these estimates, for the City of London the direct negative effect of Brexit on the financial sector will be a 12–18 percent loss of revenue and a 7–8 percent drop in employment, clearly significant effects.”There are many difficulties in assessing these City of London revenue and job losses as the large range of results from different consultants estimates. I have arrived at the estimate of from 60,000 to 100,000 job losses by considering these ranges of results but know that these directly lost jobs have a naturally supporting services elements which is shutting down partly due to loss of business but also due to Covid-19 effects and I think the drop in employment will be roughly equal to the loss in revenue. So my assessment of total jobs lost in the City of London in the range 150,000 to 200,000 with another 100,000 lost from the current employment of 2.2 million in the financial sector outside London.5.4.6 See the interesting views of the New Financial Organisation and their 10-point “Reality Check” at:Brexit and the City: a 10-point realityThis report identifies many relevant issues about which I could discuss all day. In my opinion Paris is not the new London, Dublin probably is.__________________________________________________________________________________The anti-Chinese bias of the British Government (and that bias reflected almost on a daily basis by the BBC) shuts much of the new Chinese and RCEP business away from the City of London.The new EU-Chinese investment deal occurred on the 31 December 2020 and the City of London is now excluded from these benefits with the 1 January Brexit departure from deals done by the EU.5.4.7 Finally for now: The Long-Term Consequences of the British Government focus on Finance without Providing Banking System Support to the Real EconomySee the interesting view of the effect of an oversized financial sector vs a better industrial policy for the UKCity of London costs UK £4.5tn in lost economic growth | Tax Justice NetworkThis report focuses on the loss of UK growth between 1995 and 2015. It says:”A new report reveals the UK’s oversized financial sector has cost the economy £4.5 trillion in lost economic output between 1995 and 2015 – equivalent to £67,500 for every person in the UK, or 2.5 years of economic output.1The report, published today by the Sheffield Political Economy Research Institute at the University of Sheffield, reveals that the UK economy would likely have performed much better in overall growth terms if its finance sector was smaller, and if finance was more focused on supporting other productive areas of the economy.”I tink these losses are understated. If Thatcher had accepted my 1982 proposals for better financing of the SMEs, if she had not made the working class and the inventive and innovative British SMEs her internal enemy, if she had not triumphed in the destruction of Britain’s manufacturing economy, then the UK could have had about 7% real growth since 1982.The contrast between the no-cost PBoC credit-creating Shimomuran-Wernerian economy of China where about half of GDP growth and 70% of exports come from well-funded SMEs and the collapsing SMEs of the UK could hardly be greater.I have thought for over four decades that the UK Government would have to tackle this issue. They have not done that, so far.6 Conclusions6.1 Interpreting the overall picture of the transfer of asset holdings from the UK (both from the City of London and UK regional financial service) is a relatively difficult process.6.2 Godel’s “Incompleteness Law” is that all intellectual systems are either inconsistent or incomplete. This Answer, based on the available evidence, appears to me to be both. And the available evidence seems to support that conclusion.

It looks a lot less like a peace plan, and a lot more like a “pandering to the Israeli right” plan.“A copy of the plan, released by the White House, said the proposal intended to:Establish Jerusalem as Israel’s “undivided” capital, with a potential Palestinian capital in districts to the east and north of the city.Recognise the vast majority of Israeli settlements on occupied Palestinian territory as part of the country.Recognise the Jordan Valley, which makes up about a third of the occupied West Bank, as part of Israel.Offer a path to some form of Palestinian statehood but with no army, and overarching Israeli security control in some areas, including over the sea.Recognise sections of the desert bordering Egypt as part of any future Palestinian state.”Source: Trump unveils 'realistic two-state solution' for Middle East peacePer the details above, the plan is a not starter for Palestinians, who were, unsurprisingly, not consulted on the details.Trump said that Palestinians will have East Jerusalem as their capital. That’s simply not true. The plan itself specifies districts to the east and north of the city itself.And to give you and idea as to how practical it is for Israel to simply annex settlements in the occupied West Bank from Palestinians’ perspective, take a look at the map below:Source: Can the Jewish settlement issue be resolved?The Palestinian faux-state, or “state minus” as Netanyahu has called it, could only be located in the orange and brown areas of the swiss-cheese-like map above.And when Palestinians say they want a state, they mean an actual sovereign state of their own.Does this:“Offer a path to some form of Palestinian statehood but with no army, and overarching Israeli security control in some areas, including over the sea.”sound anything like an actual sovereign state?Basically, the U.S. and Israel have decided, once again, how to further abuse the Palestinian people, and unethically and inaccurately refer to what they have perpetrated as a “peace plan”.Put yourself in the Palestinians’ position: would anyone, anywhere in the world, reasonably accept a plan like this, as what they are permanently relegated by the power that has been occupying their land for over 50 years?To give you an idea how one-sided the agreement actually is, look at the comment it elicited from Netanyahu:“Netanyahu lauded the proposal as “a great plan for Israel, it’s a great plan for peace”. Critically, he said the “status quo” of Israeli control over the Palestinian territories would remain in place until a deal was reach, which he anticipated would take years.He added to Trump: “You have been the greatest friend that Israel has ever had in the White House.”Source: Trump unveils 'realistic two-state solution' for Middle East peaceNOTE: For an alternate, reasoned perspective, please see Ron Friedman’s comment below. Ron’s points related to the additional territory Palestinians would be granted if Trump’s plan were implemented, along with certain economic incentives for Palestinians the plan includes.The reason I am not updating this answer to include a different mapo. as he requested, is that I am showcasing the Palestinians’ perspective - who look at things as they are now, and the likelihood that Israel will agree to grant them any benefits, moving forward. Same answer regarding the economic incentives for Palestinians that Trump’s plan includes.However, Ron’s points that Trump’s peace plan does include such items that potentially benefit Palestinians is a good one, and I appreciate it.Finally, here’s a link to the original text of the plan created by the Trump administration, so that anyone can read the original text, for themselves.

There are several benefits in the civil services, which you can’t get in any other profession. There are still numerous reasons to join civil services in India despite all the liberalization and globalization.Let me narrate a few of those.​1: PrestigeImagine that you are passing on a road of a city like Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai or any major city of India and you see several vehicles passing by. There are expensive vehicles like Mercedes, BMW, or Jaguar and there is a Government vehicle of average type with red/blue light on its top with the name plate of the office/officer. Which vehicle people look at?I am sure that most people look at the vehicle with red light. The traffic constables become alert on duty and may give a crisp salute to the officer sitting in the vehicle. A government vehicle is a sign of authority, which immediately attracts the attention of people. Similarly, a government officer immediately gets attention in big galaxies of important people.Contrary to popular perception in urban India and media, the civil servants are highly respected by the people of India. It is because they serve people like no one else. Further, their selection process has always been transparent and fair. UPSC had always been above board for selection of candidates for top services. A PM/CM can make anyone a Cabinet Minister, Supreme Court Collegium can make anyone a High Court or Supreme Court Judge; and anyone can be made the CEO/CMD of a company but nobody can make you an IAS, IPS or IRS officer except your own merit. Hence, people of India never doubt the ability of a civil servant. When you become part of any function of an organization, its prestige goes up and you become the central point of the function and get all the attention.2: PowerA civil servant is the epitome of state power. You are not a government servant but the government itself. The laws may be passed by the Parliament, but are executed only through civil servants. We as IRS officers sign so many documents on behalf of President of India. Please remember that you exercise the power of the Government in India pertaining to your department. You have the authority to decide cases worth hundreds of crores and conduct search, seizure of arrest of the people who are breaking the law of the land. No wonder, the law breakers don’t want to mess with you and the law abiders look at you for taking on the law breakers. You have the original powers to implement the rule of law in this country. Only when you fail, others come into picture.3. Job Security and Political InterferenceIf you are in a private sector job, you can be removed with one day notice. You are always at the mercy of the company and its top bosses. The service conditions of civil servants are determined by the Parliament and can’t be changed to his disadvantage. Their service is protected by Article 311 of the Indian Constitution according to which, he can’t be dismissed from service without an enquiry where he would be given opportunity to defend himself. He also has the option to approach the Courts, in case he has been treated unfairly. The promotion of a civil servant is not in the hands of politician, which is either time bound manner or based on seniority. The promotion committees are headed by UPSC Member/Chairman and hence you can expect utmost objectivity in promotion. You don’t have to fear anyone, if you are on the right side of the law.Fortunately the central services like IRS are fully insulated from political interference. I have never got any call from any politician in my 25 years of my career and there has been no political interference directly or indirectly ever. The reason can be attributed to the ‘Transfer Policy’ if our department. The postings upto the rank of Additional Commissioner are made by the Chief Commissioner (Within his Zone/State) or by the Central Board of Excise and Customs (All over India) manned by all IRS officials. Even for Commissioner and Chief Commissioner, it is the Placement Committee (PC) headed by The Chairman CBEC or CBDT proposes the names for the approval of FM. If a name is not proposed by PC, no order can be made. Similarly for posting in sensitive intelligence/investigation originations like DRI and DGCEI, the names have to be proposed by the Director General for being considered for posting. Thus the CBEC/CBDT has a sort of veto power over transfer and postings of IRS officers. If you find it unbelievable, please read the policy yourself by visiting the link Page on cbec.gov.inUnfortunately the situation is not same in States and the IAS/IPS/IFoS officers are posted usually by CM directly. I was told by one of my IPS colleagues that in his State, an SP can’t even transfer a constable without the approval of the Minister In-charge of the district. I hope that good sense will prevail and some day they will adopt the best practices of Government of India.4: Decent Salaries and Excellent PerksThe salaries of the government officers have become very decent in recent years. When I joined IRS in 1991, my salary was around Rs 3500 pm only. Today in 2015 my salary is around Rs 1,50,000 pm viz. 43 times time more in less than 25 years . In addition, you also get free house, car, phone, medical, Leave Travel Concession, Children Education Allowance and pension. Most of the allowances are tax free. You require at least Rs 50 lakhs of CTC to enjoy the same lifestyle in corporate. Sometime, the rental value of your government accommodation itself may be much more than the CTC of several big corporate CEOs. Who can afford to stay in Lutyens Delhi bungalows on rent?5: Work Life BalanceWhile it is common to hear the ply of the civil servants that they don’t have a good personal life, it is not absolutely true. Every government department has different types of postings. Some posts (like DM, SP) require long hours of work while several posts are such where you have to find work. The salaries in both the cases are exactly the same. Hence, if you give priority to personal life, you can always request the government to give you such assignments, where you can have more free time for yourself and the family. I have, on several occasion, requested the government for such peaceful assignments as I wanted to devote some time to teach my children and I was always given such light assignements. You also get 2/3 years of fully paid study leave, using which I did my PhD on E-Governance from IIITM Gwalior while in service. You can choose to study abroad in top university of the world and the government may finance most of the expenses. A female government officer gets additional 2 years of fully paid Child Care Leave to take care of their children, in addition to the maternity leave. Each government officer is also entitled to upto 5 years of Extra Ordinary Leave (Unpaid) for taking care of personals needs in addition to the 20 days of Half Pay Leave and 30 days of Earned leave every year besides 5 day a week work-schedule and numerous gazetted holidays. You have lots of flexibility to choose the postings according to your needs and temperament.6: Job SatisfactionYou must remember that civil services are not ordinary jobs where you work for an organization or for a person. You work for the country and its people. The revenue collected by an IRS officer is used for the benefit of the poorest and needy and for development of infrastructure and nation. As a police officer, you control crime in the country and hence create an atmosphere for security, growth and prosperity. As an IAS officer, you make and implement the developmental schemes for the growth of the nation. Your job is in the nature of social service. Many billionaires like Bill Gates, Azim Premji spend billions from their own pocket to get the satisfaction of doing the social work. You have the opportunity to do so while in service and you are even paid for it decently.7: Freedom to WorkIt may not be believable, but it is a fact that you have tremendous freedom to do your work as a government officer. Each post in a government (SP, DM or Commissioner) is created and empowered by Parliament. Hence as far as you are on that chair, you have the full freedom to decide the things according to your judgment and discretion. For example, as a revenue officer, if I get information of tax evasion and I am empowered by law to conduct search, seizure or arrest; no one can give me any direction to act or not to act. No senior officer or Minister can change the decisions taken by the appropriate legal authority without following the procedures provided by the law. For example if the order of Commissioner is wrong, you have to approach the Tribunal, High Court or Supreme Court to reverse the order. These agencies have tremendous freedom and they decide the legality of the action independently without any intervention from the government.Even though media mostly highlights the conflicts between politicians and civil servants, in reality they work with each other without much problem. It is because the goal of civil servants and politician is one and the same. Politicians need good IAS and IPS officers who can help the state grow and become free from crime. When there is a problem, often both sides are responsible. You don’t even hear any conflict in states like MP, Chhattisgarh, Orissa, Rajasthan and even in Bihar (in Nitish Kumar regime). Most of the states have no conflict at all between officers and politicians. Good politicians and good bureaucrats always work together harmoniously and help each other. The problem between them is more personal than professional, though it is always highlighted as professional problem and politicians are blamed for the mess.8: Diversity of JobsThe civil services provide tremendous diversity of jobs. If you are in IAS, you can virtually head any organization in India. As secretary, you can head different ministries of the government and also different public sector undertaking, educational and research institutions. As an IRS (C&CE) officer you work in Customs, Excise, Service Tax, Narcotics, Training, Systems etc. You even work as advocate, when you are posted in Tribunals. You also work in intelligence agencies like DRI, DGCEI, CEIB, IB or RAW. All officers may get posting in Ministries and State/Central Government and work in the policy formation. You can get posted to international organizations like WCO, UN, WHO, World Bank IMF etc. You can take lien and become a professor or join an NGO or even start an NGO in public interest. You can write books, make films and do several other activities with the permission of government.9: Widest NetworkingThe networks of civil servants are the widest in the country. As an IRS officer, my colleagues are posted all over the country. We also have officers posted in several part of the world. I can call anyone and request them for any help or protocol. When you join a service, you join a family. You are like the new born baby, who is looked after by every elder of the family. You have to just request and your wishes may be fulfilled. As you grow older in service, your role is reversed and you take care of the young officers like your children.There is also a brotherhood between all officers. I just have to pick up the phone and request my colleagues in IAS, IPS or others, and they will usually extend all types of help. Through your friends, you can approach anyone in the country, in case you need their help. The businessman, actors, leaders are all interested in networking with you, because you are always in positive to help others. It is you who have to restrict your network due to time constraints and due to its effect on performing your job professionally and impartially. Even when you retire, the network is not broken since your juniors remain in the service till almost the end of your life.10: Post Retirement JobsA civil servant get the experience of the government as no one else can. It is often said in movies that an IAS (or IPS, IRS) officer can always choose to become a Minister but a Minister can’t become a civil servant. There is a great demand of such experience in the corporate, who have to deal several government departments, but they have no experience of dealing them. The retiree officers usually get very good job offers by corporate, if they choose to work later. Many of my colleagues, who have left IRS after 10-15 years of service to join corporate are getting salaries in Crores. You can even start your own consultancy firm and earn good money. Since you learn how to run the government, you can also choose to join politics and become an effective Minister or even Chief Minister (Arvind Kejriwal, Ajit Jogi) or Prime Minister (Morarji Desai). You can also become Governor, CIC, CVC, CEC or UPSC/CAT/Tax Tribunal Member/Chairman after retirement.ConclusionIt may be a good idea to join civil services like IAS,IPS, IFS,IRS or like, if you appreciate the value of the good things that government services have to offer. However, there is no free lunch in this world. Hence, “There is a price to be paid for getting the good things”. Remember the old Hindi Song “Kabhi kisi ko mukammal jahan nahi milta, Kabhi zamin to kabhi asman nahi milta” (No body gets a perfect world, sometime you don’t get the earth and sometime you don’t get the sky).If you are willing to pay the price, civil services are still one of the best options to join in India.Disclaimer: The views expressed in this post are personal.