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EDIT 2/24/2014: Told you so!EDIT 4/13/2014: Still told you so! Bitcoin Charts / Charts Page on coindesk.com---Here is the classic model for any speculative product, such as tulips (see Tulip mania):Source: Stages in a BubbleHere is the current price history for Bitcoin:Look familiar?Conclusion: No, do not invest in Bitcoin.---From Stages in a Bubble, by Dr. Jean-Paul Rodigue at Hofstra University:Business cycles are a well understood concept commonly linked with technological innovations, which are often triggering a phase of investment and new opportunities in terms of market and employment. The outcome is economic expansion and as the technology matures and markets become saturated, expansion slows down. A phase of recession is then a likely possibility as a correction is required to clear the excess investment or capacity that irremediably occur in the later stages of an economic cycle. The bottom line is that recessions are a normal condition to a market economy as they are regulating any excess, bankrupting the weakest players or those with the highest leverage. However, one of the mandates of central banking is to fight a process (business cycles) that occurs "naturally". The interference of central banks such as the Federal Reserve appear to be exaggerating the amplitude of bubbles and the manias that fuel them. It could be argued that business cycles are being replaced by phases of booms and busts, which are still displaying a cyclic behavior, but subject to much more volatility. Although manias and bubbles have taken place many times before in history under very specific circumstances (Tulip Mania, South Sea Company, Mississippi Company, etc.), central banks appear to make matters worst by providing too much credit and being unable or unwilling to stop the process with things are getting out of control (massive borrowing). Instead of economic stability regulated by market forces, monetary intervention creates long term instability for the sake of short term stability.Bubbles (financial manias) unfold in several stages, an observation which backed up by 500 years of economic history. Each mania is obviously different, but there are always similarities; simplistically four phases can be identified:Stealth. Those who understand the new fundamentals realize an emerging opportunity for substantial future appreciation, but at a risk since their assumptions are so far unproven. So the "smart money" gets invested in the asset class, often quietly and cautiously. This category of investor tends to have better access to information and a higher capacity to understand the wider economic context that would trigger asset inflation. Prices gradually increase, but often completely unnoticed by the general population. Larger and larger positions are established as the smart money start to better understand that the fundamentals are well grounded and that this asset class is likely to experience significant future valuations.Awareness. Many investors start to notice the momentum, bringing additional money in and pushing prices higher. There can be a short-lived sell off phase taking place as a few investors cash in their first profits (there could also be several sell off phases, each beginning at an higher level than the previous one). The smart money takes this opportunity to reinforce its existing positions. In the later stages of this phase the media starts to notice with positive reports about how this new boom benefits the economy by "creating" wealth; those getting in becoming increasingly "unsophisticated".Mania. Everyone is noticing that prices are going up and the public jumps in for this "investment opportunity of a lifetime". The expectations about future appreciation becomes a "no brainer" and a linear inference mentality sets in; future prices are an extrapolation of past price appreciation, which of course goes against any conventional wisdom. This phase is however not about logic, but a lot about psychology. Floods of money come in creating even greater expectations and pushing prices to stratospheric levels. The higher the price, the more investments pour in. Fairly unnoticed from the general public caught in this new frenzy, the smart money as well as many institutional investors are quietly pulling out and selling their assets. Unbiased opinion about the fundamentals becomes increasingly difficult to find as many players are heavily invested and have every interest to keep asset inflation going. The market gradually becomes more exuberant as "paper fortunes" are made from regular "investors" and greed sets in. Everyone tries to jump in and new intrants have absolutely no understanding of the market, its dynamic and fundamentals. Prices are simply bid up with all financial means possible, particularly leverage and debt. If the bubble is linked with lax sources of credit, then it will endure far longer than many observers would expect, therefore discrediting many rational assessments that the situation is unsustainable. At some point statements are made about entirely new fundamentals implying that a "permanent high plateau" has been reached to justify future price increases; the bubble is about to collapse.Blow-off. A moment of epiphany (a trigger) arrives and everyone roughly at the same time realize that the situation has changed. Confidence and expectations encounter a paradigm shift, not without a phase of denial where many try to reassure the public that this is just a temporary setback. Some are fooled, but not for long. Many try to unload their assets, but takers are few; everyone is expecting further price declines. The house of cards collapses under its own weight and late comers (commonly the general public) are left holding depreciating assets while the smart money has pulled out a long time ago. Prices plummet at a rate much faster than the one that inflated the bubble. Many over-leveraged asset owners go bankrupt, triggering additional waves of sales. There is even the possibility that the valuation undershoots the long term mean, implying a significant buying opportunity. However, the general public at this point considers this sector as "the worst possible investment one can make". This is the time when the smart money starts acquiring assets at low prices.Bubbles can be very damaging, especially for those who arrived late with the hope of getting something for nothing. Even if they are inflationary events, the outcome of a bubble's blow off is very deflationary as large quantities of capital vanish in the wave of bankruptcies and financial defaults they trigger. Historically, they tended to be far in-between, but between 1995 and 2008 three bubbles took place back-to-back; the stock market (deflated in 2000), real estate (deflated in 2006) and commodities (deflated in 2008).

Few people will remember Narendra Modi’s speech in India Today conclave, way back in 2013. That speech was a turning point for me. Because in that speech I had seen a Narendra Modi that I would want as my Prime Minister. It was then, based on that speech, when I decided in large part that I will vote for BJP in the 2014 elections.While referring to the Congress government’s agenda of giving ‘rights’ to everyone, Modi had a very quirky reaction:Three friends went in a jungle to hunt. They stopped their car for some work and one of the friends went into the jungle, leaving his gun in the car. Immediately, he saw a tiger approach him, when he had no gun. At that time, this person reached for his pocket and showed the tiger that he had a license to shoot.This is what Modi had said, resulting in a great laughter emerging from the audience, while insulting the Congress. He had said that merely giving a ‘license’ does not make any difference in the lives of poor people.Modi had said that passing the ‘right to education’ bill or the ‘right to food’ bill or the ‘right to information’ bill is useless, and that the country needs action, not act. That is what Modi had said. And I liked him a lot then.Because we didn’t need any legislative changes. We simply needed policy changes. Policy is a government’s prerogative. Policies are tactical in nature. They can change when the governments change. Policies, therefore, are not set in stone. They can adopt to changing times.But Constitutional Amendments are serious. They are not temporary and deserve a serious discussion. But look what’s happening in the case of this particular Constitutional Amendment. This amendment was introduced on 8th January, and was passed on the same day. The working of Rajya Sabha was extended by one day, in order to get this bill passed.Is this all a joke?An important bill such as the Constitutional Amendment was introduced on the last day of the last working session of this government before the general elections take place and the code of conduct is introduced. Does that show any kind of seriousness in the government’s conduct?A bill as important as this must have also been sent for further scrutiny. It must have been kept for feedback and reviews from the public must have been heard. A standing committee should have taken time to examine the matter and the Parliament must have been informed accordingly.So what was the hurry, exactly? Would the poor people have died to wait till May when a new government comes up? Were they all going to starve without this amendment to the Constitution?Nobody was given the time to understand and absorb this change, and to think of the possible implications. Did anybody carry out a survey to tell us how many people are affected by this, if at all? What are the downsides of this? Or are you telling me there are no downsides? If there are indeed no downsides, why was the government sleeping for four years?Go ahead and tell me that the other parties also supported this bill. They did, definitely. But then nobody wants to look like “anti-poor” in the election year. As far as political maneuvering and realpolitik goes, this is definitely a “masterstroke”, but beyond that… what do I say?In the future, if the caste based reservations disappear, people might tell us that this is the amendment that paved the way for that. But I don’t think that is true. I think that this is a desperate attempt to win votes. That’s what this is. And I am very disappointed.Here is an excerpt from BJP’s election manifesto of 2014 -Our Government will be a government of the poor, marginalized and left behind. Every Indian has a right over everything that India has. From this, he or she is free to weave his or her own dreams. The India of tomorrow will have 125 crore such dreams, and will be built on the same. We will not only empower our citizens with the ability to dream; we will enable them with the capability to actualize their dreams.The real test of the success of a development process lies in the happiness of the common man. The fruits of growth and development must reach the weakest, most deprived and remotest of people. With firm belief in the concept of Antyodaya - uplifting the poorest of the poor - Extreme Poverty and malnutrition will be treated as a National priority, and will be addressed on Mission Mode.We will:Strengthen Delivery of poverty alleviation programs through convergence, transparency and efficiency.Identify 100 most backward districts of the country to bring them at par with other districts through prioritized and integrated development.Strengthen the natural resource base of the people to tide over natural calamities.Aim to gainfully employ rural poor in agriculture and allied activities.Enable the urban poor to develop skills so that they take advantage of the emerging opportunities.Facilitate partnership across all levels of government, civil society, academic and financial institutions in this national mission of poverty alleviation.Did you notice something? In their election manifesto, BJP did not talk about reservation for economically backward sections. Here is the election manifesto full of promises they made. It does not talk about a Constitutional Amendment for introducing reservations.Further, they actually said that they will “enable the poor to develop skills so that they take advantage of emerging opportunities” Somehow, this got translated into “give reservations to the poor!”Hmm.When I think about it, I feel helpless. I voted for a party that I thought was going to enable and empower people. Of course, they didn’t do everything that was promised. I accept that, because it’s not humanly possible to do everything. I could have made peace with the fact that, however small they may be, we are still taking steps in the right direction.But I am not sure about which direction we are headed any more.At this juncture, I sincerely hope that this amendment to our Constitution is presented before the Supreme Court for their scrutiny. Merely because it is an amendment to the Constitution does not automatically make it exempt from judicial review. The Supreme Court has held that the basic structure of the Constitution cannot be altered.Our Constitution did not talk about reservations for economically backward classes. In my view, the structure of the Constitution has been changed. And, I sincerely hope that the Supreme Court strikes it down. But, the fact that the Supreme Court may strike it down wouldn’t matter to the voters.

Hi,UPES provides MBA in these fields :-MBA Logistics & Supply Chain ManagementMBA Port & Shipping ManagementMBA Aviation ManagementMBA Business AnalyticsMBA International BusinessMBA with specialization in Human Resources / Marketing / Financial & Accounting / Operations ManagementMBA Energy TradingMBA Oil & Gas ManagementMBA Power ManagementMBA Urban Infrastructure & Smart Citiesadmission and eligibility is different for each of them like :-MBA with specialization in Human Resources / Marketing / Financial & Accounting / Operations Management course is offered to allow the student with a choice to specialize in a course of his interest.EligibilityMinimum 50% marks at Higher &Senior Secondary level (10th & 12th)Graduation with minimum 50% marks from a recognized University.Admissions through UPES Management Entrance Test (UPESMET )Candidates who have minimum 50% marks in Class 10th and Class 12th and in graduation, can seek admission to UPES MBA programs by taking the UPES Management Entrance Test (UPESMET) 2017Scheme of TestsSectionsNo.of QuestionsGeneral English: Reading Comprehension, Verbal Reasoning, Verbal Ability35Quantitative: Data Interpretation & Data Sufficiency35General Awareness: General Knowledge, Current Affairs, Business Scenario35Analytical & Logical Reasoning35Total no. of Questions140The University reserves the right to make changes in curricula, degree requirements, course offerings, student intake and academic regulations or change of location at any time without assigning any reason or prior notice. The said change may apply not only to prospective students but also to those who are already enrolled with the University.Non Examination Pathway – MBA admissions through National Level TestsIf you fulfill our eligibility criteria (Minimum 50 % marks in class 10th and 12th, as well as in graduation - Appeared but Result awaited can also apply) and have any of the following test scoresSept MAT 2016/December MAT 2016 score of minimum 75 percentileFeb MAT 2017/May MAT 2017 score of minimum 75 percentileCMAT 2017 score of minimum 75 percentileXAT 2017/CAT 2016 score of minimum 70 percentileNMAT 2016 score of minimum 160 percentileGMAT Scores** Upto 50% seats shall be filled through National Level Tests category. Incase candidates for such seats are not available, UPES has the right to fill these seats through UPES Entrance Test. University also reserves the right to conduct further physical (paper pencil test) for admission post March ' 2017** University reserves the right to change the Test Date or cancel the Test .University also reserves thr right to conduct further physical (pen/paper) test post administration of the March ' 2017 Test.you can read in details more about each one of them here :- http://www.upes.ac.in/post-graduate