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People flying the C172 will probably die, but odds are divided regarding the airliner. Several events involving light and large aircraft occurred in the past:1952: American Airlines Flight 910, a four-engine Douglas DC-6 propliner, collided in mid-air with a single engine Temco Swift on final approach to Dallas Love Field on June 28, 1952, over Dallas, Texas. The DC-6 was carrying 55 passengers and 5 crew members from San Francisco, California. The DC-6 landed with no injuries to any of its 60 occupants, while both occupants of the two-person Swift died when their aircraft impacted the ground1960: Collision between a Caravelle and a Stampe SV4 (two seats trainer) at 1000ft near Orly, France. One dead and several people wounded on the Caravelle, mainly from the light aircraft engine1967: Trans World Airlines (TWA) Flight 553, registration N1063T, was a McDonnell Douglas DC-9-15 jet airliner operated by Trans World Airlines in American airspace en route from Pittsburgh to Dayton. While descending toward Dayton about 29 miles from the airport, the flight collided in midair with a Beechcraft Baron near Urbana, Ohio, on March 9, 1967. All 25 people on board the DC-9 were killed, as was the pilot of the Beechcraft, its sole occupant1969: On September 9, 1969, Allegheny Airlines Flight 853, a McDonnell Douglas DC-9 passenger jet, collided in mid-air with a Piper PA-28 light aircraft near Fairland, Indiana, United States. The DC-9 was carrying 78 passengers and 4 crew members. The Piper was leased to a student pilot on a solo cross-country flight. All 83 occupants of both aircraft were killed in the accident and both aircraft were destroyed by the collision and ground impact1978: Pacific Southwest Airlines (PSA) Flight 182 was a Boeing 727-214 commercial airliner, registration, N533PS that collided with a private Cessna 172 light aircraft, registration, N7711G over San Diego, California, around 9:00 am on Monday, September 25, 1978. It was Pacific Southwest Airlines' first accident involving fatalities. The death toll of 144 makes it the deadliest aircraft disaster in California history.1986: The 1986 Cerritos midair collision was a plane crash that occurred over the Los Angeles suburb of Cerritos, California, on Sunday August 31, 1986. It occurred when Aeroméxico Flight 498, a McDonnell-Douglas DC-9, was clipped by N4891F, a Piper PA-28-181 Archer owned by the Kramer family, while descending into Los Angeles International Airport, killing all 67 people on both aircraft and an additional 15 people on the ground.1990: Atlantic Southeast Airlines flight 2254, operated under 14 CFR 135 with an Embraer EMB 120 Brasilia, registration N217AS, from Muscle Shoals, Alabama to Atlanta, Georgia with an intermediate stop at the Northeast Alabama Regional Airport in Gadsden, Alabama collided in mid-air with Civil Air Patrol Cessna 172 registration N99501, on April 9, 1990 over Gadsden. Following departure from Northeast Alabama Regional Airport Runway 24, the ASA flight turned left toward the east along its intended flight path to Atlanta at an assigned altitude of 5,000 feet. The Cessna 172 was west bound at the same altitude, facing the setting sun. During the head-on collision at 6:05 p.m. Central Daylight Time, the right horizontal stabilizer of the Embraer was torn from the aircraft. Though significantly damaged, the ASA flight managed to return to Northeast Alabama Regional Airport with no injuries to occupants, the Cessna 172 crashed into a field, resulting in fatal injuries to both occupants. An eyewitness to the event did not report any evasive maneuvers by either aircraft prior to the collision.

As with all things magical, it wasn't enough 😘WednesdayI flew into SFO on the 3rd, arriving at 10:30. As I waited for the shuttle I saw this building.I caught the shuttle to the Aloft Hotel off Millbrae to pickup my rental, a 2013 Yaris. The brakes were quite responsive and took some getting used to 🚘I used RelayRide. I'll plug them here because, aside from a few hiccups during the payment registration and reservation processes, it was basically painless.But my AirBnB check-in wasn't until 3PM. Time to go see the Golden Gate 😎 But from what vantage, I pondered, as I consulted Google Maps? I settled on Baker Beach!I got sand in mah shoes 😌It took a lot of spanners to build that Span 😂Geodesy. My seat as I ate sushi from Sprouts and watched the waves roll in.The Golden Gate, and the Bay Bridge (not pictured here), are both designed to accommodate container ships and, one assumes, aircraft carriers.Salt-tolerant vegetation. Pretty.Eventually, I left this idyll and made my way to the EPA (East Palo Alto) to check into the AirBnB I had arranged to share with Scott Danzig and Aaron Ellis.[Coming Soon: Nikita Butakov's photos]Scott and I then made our way to Tartine, dining on tasty foods and foamy beers. We then set off to find Froyo, but we were repeatedly rebuffed by 'Closed' signs.ThursdayScott and I forayed down University and, upon reaching Palo Alto, we landed at a diner dubbed the Peninsula. There we sampled the finest Belgian waffles they could make. They were filling. They were also unsatisfying. Put another way, I've had better Belgian waffles at chain restaurants back in Indiana. Nevertheless, the company was delightful and I was led to understand that Scott has traveled extensively ✈️Thursday evening began at Cyndi's house. Helluva great time that. Though Lucy was not pleased 😥To be continued. I must sleep now and continue this answer tomorrow...

The following engineering definitions differentiate various forms and types of vibration and noise:Vibration is oscillating, reciprocating, or any other periodic motion of a rigid or elastic body forced from a position or state of equilibrium. If the frequency and magnitude of vibration are constant, the vibration is said to be harmonic. When the frequency and magnitude vary with time, the vibration is random.Buffet is a form of vibration usually caused by aerodynamic excitation. It usually is random and associated with separated airflow. For example, buffet may be felt during the extension of speed brakes or during air turbulence.Flutter is an unstable condition in which unsteady aerodynamics excite the natural frequencies of the structure over which the air flows. The resulting vibrations can grow to a magnitude that causes the structure to fail.Noise is a vibration that excites the air and can be heard. When the vibration is random, the noise is unmusical or confused. When the vibration is harmonic, the result is a tone like that produced by a musical instrument. It may sound like the whistling of a drain or a slight leak in a door.Normal and abnormal vibrations occur for several reasons. Aerodynamics, mechanical malfunctions, and external factors such as atmospheric turbulence can cause airplane vibration. All vibrations have associated frequencies and magnitudes that may be readily detected or barely perceptible to the flight crew and passengers.Each airplane has a unique signature of normal vibration. This is a consequence of mass distribution and structural stiffness that result in vibration modes at certain frequencies. When external forces act on the airplane, such as normal airflow over the surfaces, very-low-level vibrations result. Typically, this is perceived as background noise. More noticeable, but also normal, is the reaction of the airplane to turbulent air, in which the magnitude of the vibration may be larger and thus clearly visible and felt.Normal vibration.Each airplane has a unique signature of normal vibration. This is a consequence of mass distribution and structural stiffness that result in vibration modes at certain frequencies. When external forces act on the airplane, such as normal airflow over the surfaces, very-low-level vibrations result. Typically, this is perceived as background noise. More noticeable, but also normal, is the reaction of the airplane to turbulent air, in which the magnitude of the vibration may be larger and thus clearly visible and felt.Most flight crews recognize these normal events, which become the experience base from which flight crews detect abnormal vibration events.Abnormal vibration.The most easily identified abnormal vibration is that which has a sudden onset and may be accompanied by noise. The vibration may be intermittent or steady with a distinct frequency, or it may be a more random buffet type. When the onset of abnormal vibration can be associated with a previous action or event, the source may be obvious. However, some vibrations initially are rather subtle and require diagnostic procedures to determine their probable causes.Abnormal vibration usually is related to one or more of the following causes: engine rotor imbalance, malfunction of mechanical equipment, and airflow disturbances acting over doors or control surfaces that are misrigged or misfaired or that have excessive wear or free play. Abnormal vibration rarely is caused by a structural failure or an unstable power control system.Flutter.Aeroelastic instability, or flutter, very rarely causes abnormal vibration. Through design, extensive analysis, and certification tests, all configurations of commercial jet airplanes are free from flutter for all design conditions within the aeroelastic stability envelope. This envelope extends well beyond normal permissible operating speeds and applies to normal operation as well as failures, malfunctions, and adverse conditions. However, when an airplane is operated in a configuration or condition that is beyond these criteria, flutter may result within the operational envelope. Flutter can be differentiated from buffet in that flutter can occur in smooth air; the vibration originates from the airplane rather than from the atmosphere.Flutter is a dynamic instability of an elastic structure in a fluid flow, caused by positive feedback between the body's deflection and the force exerted by the fluid flow. In a linear system, 'flutter point' is the point at which the structure is undergoing simple harmonic motion - zero net damping - and so any further decrease in net damping will result in a self-oscillation and eventual failure. 'Net damping' can be understood as the sum of the structure's natural positive damping, and the negative damping of the aerodynamic force. Flutter can be classified into two types: hard flutter, in which the net damping decreases very suddenly, very close to the flutter point; and soft flutter, in which the net damping decreases gradually.Closely associated with flutter is limit cycle oscillation (LCO). For nonlinear systems, flutter is usually interpreted as a limit cycle oscillation (LCO), and methods from the study of dynamical systems can be used to determine the speed at which flutter will occur.During LCO, the vibration is self-excited, but nonlinear effects such as friction, clearances, and free play (or backlash) limit the amplitude. LCO most often is caused by excessive free play within the flight control surfaces and associated components.Structures exposed to aerodynamic forces — including wings and aerofoils — are designed carefully within known parameters to avoid flutter. In complex structures where both the aerodynamics and the mechanical properties of the structure are not fully understood, flutter can be discounted only through detailed testing. Even changing the mass distribution of an aircraft or the stiffness of one component can induce flutter in an apparently unrelated aerodynamic component. At its mildest this can appear as a "buzz" in the aircraft structure, but at its most violent it can develop uncontrollably with great speed and cause serious damage to or lead to the destruction of the aircraft, as in Braniff Flight 542.The Lockheed Electra crashesWithin months after the Lockheed Electra, a four-engine turboprop, began service with several airlines, two planes crashed because the wings fell off due to engine vibration, a blow to the plane's reputation that Lockheed was never able to overcome. Production of the aircraft was discontinued in 1961, after only 170 were built. The figure was far short of the 250 the company had projected it would need to sell in order to break even.After the wing failures, Lockheed modified the airplanes and the Electra enjoyed reasonable success in use all over the world. Lockheed has built more than 600 versions of a sister ship, the Orion, an anti-submarine warfare plane that uses essentially the same fuselage as the Electra.On September 29, 1959, 23 minutes into a 41-minute scheduled domestic flight from Houston to Dallas Love Field, Texas, Braniff International Airways Flight 542,registration N9705C, a Lockheed L-188 Electra, disintegrated in mid-air approximately 3.8 miles (6.1 km) southeast of Buffalo, Texas, killing everyone on board.Structural failure of the wing occurred at approximately 2309. The main wreckage was located 3.19 miles east-southeast of Buffalo, TX. The time correlates with impact-stopped watches recovered at the scene and from witnesses to the accident.The recovered flight engineer's logbook recorded altitude at 15,000; airspeed of 275 knots; 15 degrees F outside air temperature; anti-icing off; and time of 2300.Witnesses reported hearing various noises of different intensities and pitches (clapping of two boards together, thunder, roar of a jet breaking the sound barrier, etc.). The majority observed a large fire in the sky.After studying the wreckage distribution pattern, it became evident that the airplane had experienced airborne disintegration, which broke the airplane up into a number of major sections.Identifying the cause of the disaster proved difficult, as the accident had occurred before the age of cockpit voice recorders. The Civil Aeronautics Board (CAB) investigated the accident and, after interviewing numerous eyewitnesses and examining the debris field, were able to conclude that the initial failure of the aircraft had begun in the left wing. However, even though it was determined that the wing was destroyed by "cycles of reverse bending" or "flutter", the investigation failed to determine how the flutter was caused, and the investigation stalled.The Civil Aeronautics Board Aircraft Accident Report concluded that the probable cause of this accident was structural failure of the left wing resulting from forces generated by undampened propeller whirl mode.Investigation determined that the break-up of the plane had begun in the left wing and progressed in a catastrophic sequence which ultimately destroyed the aircraft. However, the reason for the disintegration of the left wing proved to be elusive.Tests found that "flutter" had destroyed the wing, however the Electra's wings were supposedly flutter-free. Further tests attempting to re-create the accident by weakening the wing and exposing it to loads greater than any which would conceivably have occurred in the actual flight failed to cause a break-up similar to the one that occurred in Flight 542.Help from teams at Boeing, Convair, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) also failed to determine how Lockheed's "flutter-free" wing had simply ripped away during flight, and the investigation stalled, further progress not being achieved for nearly six months.The breakthrough into unlocking the cause of the accident came after the crash of Northwest Airlines Flight 710 on March 17, 1960.Northwest Orient Airlines Flight 710, a Lockheed L-188 Electra on a regularly scheduled flight departing Minneapolis-St. Paul to Miami with a stop at Chicago Midway Airport, disintegrated in-flight and crashed near Cannelton, Indiana (10 miles east of Tell City, Indiana) on March 17, 1960.The two aircraft, both Electras, disintegrated in mid-air after losing their wings in similar fashion, both resulting in the deaths of all occupants on board.Following the second crash, CAB Chief Safety Investigator Phillip Goldstein was reported as saying: "The structure was subjected to forces greater than it was designed for. We have definite evidence of a wing failure. Why this wing failure, I don't know."Initial investigations into the second crash proved fruitless but after laborious testing investigators were able to find flaws in the aircraft which included an overly stiff wing, and outboard nacelles responding differently than intended in the design briefs. Further experimentation discovered that flutter in a nacelle can be passed on to even a "flutter-free" wing.Final work in the mystery also found that as the magnitude of the flutter grows, the frequency at which it vibrates decreases. In the case of the two Electra crashes the frequency of the flutter had lowered from five cycles a second to three, the same as the wing creating harmonic coupling. This harmonic coupling would have continued to cause ever larger wing vibrations until some part of the structure failed. Contributing to the two aircraft's demise was the stiffness of the wings and severe clear-air turbulence.The investigation into the Northwest crash discovered a new phenomenon of harmonic coupling within the wings of aircraft, which in the end was ultimately identified by the CAB as being the cause of both break-ups. The final accident report for Flight 542 was issued on April 28, 1961.Final analysis of the CAB, in its official Accident Report:ConclusionThere was in this investigation no positive indication of the cause. For this reason, an attempt has been made in this report to eliminate certain possibilities by application of the available evidence to each of them. Once these possibilities have been disposed of, the only remaining causal factor for which there is some known basis is the condition of whirl mode. The probability that this accident was so caused is supported by the following.1. So far as is known, the aircraft was in straight and level flight and at a normal cruise speed with no serious mechanical problems.2. A sound identified as a supersonic or high speed propeller occurred 30 seconds prior to fuel ignition (wing failure).3. There was structural damage evidence compatible with oscillatory motion of the No. 1 QEC and the left wing.4. First stage compressor blades of No. 1 engine rubbed the air inlet housing supports.5. The probable cause of a similar accident of another Electra was due to whirl mode.If prior damage is a requirement for the necessary reduction in stiffness, it must be assumed that the evidence of such damage was either obliterated in the crash or never existed in a discernible form.Probable CauseThe Board determines that the probable cause of this accident was structural failure of the left wing resulting from forces generated by undampened propeller whirl mode.Propeller Whirl DemonstrationA very cool 1961 demonstrative video about the way propellers can move.Flutter Tests of the Full Span Lockheed ElectraThis 1960 video is of flutter tests conducted at the NASA Langley Research Center's 16-Foot Transonic Dynamics Tunnel. Tests are conducted using a 1/8th scale full-span Lockheed Electra model. Two Electras crashed in 1959, with many fatalities. A third broke apart in March 1960 killing all on board.The final reports into the two accidents were released four days apart, on April 24 and April 28, 1961, respectively, with the Braniff crash report being the later of the two. The two reports were similar and blamed the same forces for destroying both aircraft.===========