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The Guide of finishing Party Registration & Agreement Baby Shower Online

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PDF Editor FAQ

Is the Libertarian Party growing?

According to them, yes:Libertarian Party registration surges 92% in 10 years | Libertarian PartyLibertarian Party (United States) - WikipediaIn 2016, Johnson/Weld got nearly 4.5 million votes. That’s over 3 times what they got in 2012, though in fairness the Democrat and the Republican were the two least popular candidates in modern history.The real question is whether a Libertarian will ever win a federal seat. 3% of the vote is impressive, but it’s nowhere close to what would be needed to win an election.

If both the Republicans and Libertarians nominated Bill Weld for president in 2020 and he won, could he change his party registration back to Libertarian and have an “L” appear next to his name instead of an “R”?

If the Libertarian Party were to nominate Weld for dog catcher, let alone President, after what he did in 2016, I would never cast a single vote for one of its candidates ever again—which would be significant because I vote for Libertarian candidates a lot.As for your question, if he were somehow nominated by both parties, he would appear on the ballot as the candidate of both. If the parties had different candidates for Vice-President, the tickets would be listed separately. It is in no way unprecedented for a candidate to be the nominee of one of the two major parties and a third party, although it rarely happens above the level of a congressional seat.

How predictive are early voting ballots of the final election result?

Pretty much not at all. There are a lot of problems with extrapolating from early voting to the total vote.Number one: a vote is a vote is a vote. The word “cannibalize” often comes up in this context: every vote cast before Election Day “eats” a vote that will no longer be cast on Election Day. This nets out, obviously, to an increase of exactly zero votes for each party.Number two: we don’t actually know who early voters are voting for. What we generally know is the breakdown of the early vote by county and by party registration. Party registration, of course, is a pretty good predictor of vote choice, but it’s nowhere close to perfect. (A close relative of mine voted for Barack Obama twice and for Hillary Clinton in 2016 but as recently as June of this year was still registered as a Republican, simply because she forgot about it.) In particular, the very voters you’re interested in might be potential crossover voters, registered Republicans who are voting Democratic or registered Democrats who are voting Republican. The more crossover vote there is, the less helpful early voting numbers are. And again, this won’t get around reason #1.Number three: whatever predictive power early voting has pretty much vanishes when you look at polling. That’s because most polls around now are conducting some kind of likely voter filter or weighting, and that often entails asking how likely a respondent says they are to vote. Especially in the final weeks of a campaign, this question will usually include an option along the lines of “I already voted”, in which case the pollster can happily just treat that voter as someone with 100% probability of voting. So the polls are counting early votes like they would any other vote (or maybe weighting them up a bit if they weight in some way by turnout probability), and looking at early voting numbers, if you’re already looking at polls, is tantamount to looking at variation already explained. Another way of putting it is that you’re looking at pure noise, not signal.What early voting does buy you is two things. First, a big early vote is often an indicator of high overall turnout. Again, that’s not directly because early votes piles on top of Election Day votes (see reason #1 again); rather, increased early voting is often a sign of heightened voter enthusiasm, which correlates with higher turnout.Second, if you’re a campaign or a GOTV group, more early votes make your job a lot easier. If a voter has voted early, you can cross them off your canvassing list for good, and that’s one less voter you have to remind to vote. That may not sound like a lot, but if you’re a statewide campaign with field offices in every county, it adds up.

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