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Over 2 crore candidates apply for 1 lakh Indian railway jobs. Has the government failed to create jobs for the people? How can we make this better?
Recently, I booked an Uber taxi in Delhi. As the cab driver was taking time to arrive, I called him on his mobile phone. He replied to me in heavily accented English. Initially, I was under the impression that he might be the cab owner and might be driving the cab himself due to absence of his driver. When he arrived with his taxi, he offered toffees and also informed that bottled water was available in his cab if I needed it. I found him to be a good person, genuinely interested in promoting his business.He was speaking in fluent English. After some discussion, I found that he was a graduate in Hotel Management and was previously working in Jet Airways. He decided to start driving his own cab with Uber about two years back. Initially, he was earning in the range of Rs. 1 lakh per month as Uber was providing incentives. Nowadays, he is earning about Rs. 40 to 50 thousand per month after driving the cab for about 10 hours a day. He said that he leaves home at about 8 am in the morning (no travelling time required unlike other jobs as he gets customers from there itself) and returns by 6 pm (again no travelling time, since he would generally get customers going up to a place nearby his house). So, every day, at 6 pm, he gets a chance to play with his young daughter. He called it a luxury when compared with his previous job in Jet Airways.One good thing I noticed about him was that he took pride in the fact that he is driving a cab and is his own master. He is not servant of anybody. He did not feel ashamed of being a “driver”. This is unlike most other educated people.Why talk about others, when I can tell you about members of my own extended family? Well, I have been telling 3 young relatives to start driving Uber cab (or do something similar to earn their livelihood instead of waiting for job) for last 2-3 years. One of them is a college dropout. He left studies due to bad company. He is unemployed for last 3-4 years, doing nothing. He openly writes “Enjoying life on my father’s money” in his social media profile against the column of profession. This is despite the fact that his father is also almost unemployed and hardly earning much. They are living with financial difficulties. Other two relatives are Engineering graduates from private Engineering colleges. They are sitting idle at home, unemployed, for 3 years and 2 years, respectively. Enjoying life on the salary of their mother who has just retired from a Government service, as their father is also unemployed.Importantly, all three of them find it insulting to drive a cab, in spite of being told that they can easily earn in the range of Rs. 50,000 or so with Uber or Ola cabs. Suggestions of other similar self-business also do not appeal to them. To the first one, I literally suggested “Pakoda” business (in fact, samosas with a tea stall) since he is not fully educated and does not have much capital to invest. I told him, a cup of tea costs about Rs. 3 to 4, but it sells for Rs. 10, and that if he can sell just 100 cups of tea a day, he can make Rs. 600 per day PLUS selling samosas will give him extra income. I tried to motivate him by telling him that the son-in-law of my friend, who is an IIT-Kharagpur graduate, had started the Chai Thela as a startup and is doing well. And, a tea-seller in Pune makes Rs. 12 lakh per month (see here)!!! However, no motivation works on this relative. He wants a job, which is always evading him. He takes pride in sitting idle, wasting parents’ money, but does not want to do any such business which would be insulting, as per him.[Image source: Chai Thela]Really? How can doing a business be insulting? The irony is that they would not feel insulted in sitting unemployed, or taking small loans from others, or even begging money from parents and others, but would feel insulted if asked to drive a cab or start selling pakodas or samosas or tea or whatever other business is possible.What all of them want is JOBS. And, that too, preferably from Government.This is the story everywhere in India.No doubt then that we have more than 2 crore persons applying for about 89000 railways jobs in class III and class IV category, where the salary would be much less at between Rs. 20,000 and Rs. 30,000 per month (see: Indian Railways Receives Over 2 Crore Applications For 89,000 Vacancies).Frankly speaking, I feel pity for these unemployed youth. Let me tell you emphatically. Though I previously worked in IPS, if tomorrow the circumstances so require, I will not be ashamed to start the small work of polishing the shoes which requires a capital of only about Rs. 100 to earn something. Why should one be ashamed of doing work and earning his livelihood? I should feel ashamed if I commit theft or commit some other crime to earn my livelihood. I should feel ashamed if I indulge in corruption, or if I beg money from someone. But, why should I feel ashamed in doing some work for my livelihood, howsoever lowly it might be called? Doing work should not be embarrassing. Remaining idle (when you can do some work), begging money, committing a crime should be.Herein lies the problem. Everyone wants a job. And, that too, preferably a Government job.But, how many jobs can the Government provide? As per the data available on the website of the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation of Government of India [see: here, or directly download this link], there were a total of 2,95,86,000 people employed in India in 2011. This includes all Central Government jobs, State Government jobs, Public Sector Undertaking (PSU) jobs, and Private Sector jobs. So, this is less than 3 crore jobs in the organised sector including Government, PSU and Private sectors.Now, are you aware as to how many people we add every year to our population? Between 2001 and 2011, our population increased from 102.8 crore to 121 crore, which means an increase of 18.2 crore in 10 years (see this, and this, for comparison). This means an average increase of 1.82 crore people every year!So, when the total number of people employed in organised sector (including Government sector) is only 2.95 crore and every year we add 1.82 crore new people, how can you provide employment to all of these new people, considering that there would already a backlog of crores of people waiting for jobs?Since it has become a fashion with Congress party (which itself failed to facilitate creation of jobs during its own 60 years rule) to do Modi bashing on the jobs front, let us how much population would have been added during Narendra Modi’s 4 year rule so far. As per the above estimates, since 2014, in four years, already about 7.28 crore new people would have been added. Then there would a backlog of tens of crores of unemployed people till 2014.So, do you think it is possible to give employment to a minimum of 7 crore new people in organised sector, when the cumulative total number of employed persons in that sector is less than 3 crore?At the same time, people do not want to sell pakodas, or drive taxis and the like! They do not want to do something on their own, even when the Government is willing to offer MUDRA loans on attractive terms. In fact, when Modi talked of selling pakodas as a way of employment, people laughed at him and made jokes of him.So, how will you generate jobs, then?Frankly speaking, I am against the Government being provider of jobs. I believe that there should be minimum Government. The Government should have no business to be in business. It should have only those jobs that are necessary to run the Government, not for the purpose of providing employment to people as a populist measure. Not for running businesses in PSUs.Of course, the Government can and should be facilitator for creating jobs in organised as well as unorganised sectors.On that count, I genuinely believe that, like previous Governments, BJP Government led by PM Modi has also disappointed. Its Make in India program has not been successful. The Skill India program is also a non-starter. The previous Government created banking sector mess (huge NPAs), and the present Government has not been successful (so far) in clearing that mess. Arun Jaitley promised to reduce corporate tax, but failed to do so except to a minor degree. There are no labour reforms despite promises. The land acquisition rules continue to be tough and almost impossible to follow if some land is required for developing new industries. The farmer distress is still there. Modi’s promise of “Minimum Government Maximum Governance” is yet not fulfilled even partially. GST is a welcome big move, but it is unnecessarily complicated and not well-planned. Demonetisation was a good policy but very poorly planned and poorly implemented, making it a failure.In short, the Government has not made any major change in 4 years (except GST which is supposed to be path-breaking initiative but is yet to stabilise due to poor planning) which could have facilitated attracting new businesses, new industries, new manufacturing jobs, etc. In fact, instead of attracting foreigners to invest in India, as many as 23000 Indian dollar millionaires have left India since 2014 (see here), who could have otherwise created some new jobs in India! Considering that each dollar millionaire had at least 1 million US dollars (equivalent to about 6.5 crore), in fact many of them would be having multi-millions, it is a loss of about at least 1,50,000 crores worth capital!!!So, should it then be a surprise if there are more than 2 crore applicants for 89000 low-level jobs in Railways?But, I feel these applicants are equally, if not more, responsible as is the Government, if they are still unemployed. Because they only want guaranteed jobs.Update (2nd April 2018): Since a few friends have misunderstood the message, let me clarify two things.(1) Everyone does not need to (and should not) start selling tea and pakoda. I used these terms only as “metaphor” since one can learn such things in maximum one or two days and such things can be done with minimum investments. But, everyone does not have to do the same thing. There are thousands of vocations and businesses, including small-scale and tiny-scale industries. One can choose as per one’s expertise and comfort level. One can obtain advice of experts in this regard. As per media reports, Government claims to have provided MUDRA loans to 9 crore people (please see this). So, others can also try that or may try normal loans from banks, etc.(2) I don’t mean any kind of disrespect to unemployed people. NEVER. For example, when I used the word “pity” for the 2 crore people applying for 89000 railway jobs, I did not do it with any wrong intention. I used the word because I genuinely felt that out of 2 crore applicants, as many as 1.99 crore people would still remain unemployed after this examination since there are only 89000 jobs, and they would be falsely hoping for the job and also toiling hard for a few months for appearing in the examination. I have myself done a few menial jobs in my childhood to earn livelihood for myself and family (started working at the age of 8 years), so I know the hardships. I can never mean disrespect for any such things. Still, if someone feels offended by what I said, I apologise profusely.
India has jumped 30 ranks in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business report. What are the learnings? What's next?
The latest news on India reaching 100th Rank in ease of doing business (jumping by 30 places) is a cause of happiness. It showcases the present government’s efforts to strengthen the Indian economy and make India into a competitive global business brand. The ranking though is fraught with some delinquency. First, the report captures the implementation process in Delhi & Mumbai only. As these cities are among the most business-savvy the ranking doesn’t reflect the actual business conditions across India. Secondly, the rankings are relative based on the DTF (Distance to Frontier) score. So, even if a country has made some progressive reforms, there is a possibility that the rankings would not show any improvement if the rest of the countries have improved to a greater extent.The idea is not to be pessimistic but observant about the reforms process and continue our due diligence in the reform process. I do personally believe that the current government has tried some disruptive ideas for changing the status quo. The focus on Adhaar implementation, the insolvency & Bankruptcy law, GST implementation are some of the major structural changes executed by the government. As some of my fellow Quora friends have already mentioned the ranking would not have included the implementation of the GST law, which would have improved India’s ranking in the Paying Tax criteria.The study ranked countries on 10 parameters with India improving its DTF score on 8 of those parameters. A TOI except provides a brief review of the improvements.The improvements have been on account of significant changes in the process delivery with many systems pushed online.Setting up a business was made easier by merging the applications for a Permanent Account Number (PAN) and Tax Account Number (TAN) as well as improving the online platform for applications. Mumbai merged the applications for Value Added Tax (VAT) and Professional Tax (PT) which helped further.Easier construction permits, by simplifying the procedure to obtain a building permit with an online system in Greater Mumbai and New Delhi.Access to credit was strengthened by amending the rules on priority of secured creditors outside reorganisation proceedings and the new insolvency law that provides a time limit and clear grounds for relief to the automatic stay for secured creditors.Protections for minority investors were strengthened with more remedies available in cases of prejudicial transactions between the transacting parties.Easier Tax Payments by requiring Employees Provident Fund payments to be electronic, and introducing administrative measures making it easier to comply with corporate income tax rules.Trade across state borders was made quicker by reducing the time taken to comply with import regulations at Nhava Sheva port. In Delhi and Mumbai, eliminating merchant overtime fees and an increase in electronic and mobile platforms compliance of both export and import regulations.Enforcing contracts with the the introduction of the National Judicial Data Grid (NJDG) in Mumbai and Delhi made it easier to enforce contracts because local courts can now generate case management reports.Resolving insolvency with the new insolvency and bankruptcy code that introduced a reorganisation procedure for corporate debtors and enabled continuation of the debtor’s business even during insolvency proceedings in Mumbai and Delhi.The ease of doing business is one facet of business in India. Another major challenge is how to sustain businesses and create an investor friendly environment for longer business sustenance. With the improvements mentioned and having the benefit of hind sight with us, there are some areas that the Indian government needs to tackle to make the business environment safer and more convenient:Non- Performing Assets:NPA have become a major challenge for our policy makers. The NPA are part of a historical legacy that the current government inherited. A weak government, an inefficient watchdog, and some shrewd bankers have made a holy mess of the entire banking system. Has the push not come to come clean, it would still be put under the carpet. That is why the proposal to recapitalise PSBs to the extent of ₹2.11 trillion (₹2.11 lakh crore) is a winner by any reckoning. It is, perhaps, the most effective way to provide a much-needed fiscal stimulus to the economy and revive growth.‘Stressed advances’ (which represent non-performing loans as well as restructured loans) have risen from a little over 10% in 2012-13 to 15% in 2016-17. This has caused capital adequacy at PSBs to fall. Average capital at PSBs has fallen from over 13% in 2011-12 to 12.2% in 2016-17. The minimum capital required is 10.5%. An estimated 10 out of 20 PSBs have capital of just one percentage point above the minimum or less. Inadequate capital at PSBs has taken its toll on the flow of credit.Recapitalization is the supply side push that will help reduce the NPA. On the demand side, one way to improve the efficacy of these stressed assets is to have Asset Management Companies that will structure the loans with a price cut and will also change the management at some of the private enterprises.Gross- Capital formation-The continuing decline in the Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) rate, that is, GFCF as a proportion of GDP tells a very sorry tale of the Indian economy. Gross fixed capital formation is basically a proxy for the private investment happening in the economy. A look at the graph provides enough reasons to worry about the growth of capital in the Indian economy.Private investment, which accounts for three quarters of total GFCF, has not been forthcoming despite the promise of crowding-in by public sector investments and government efforts to improve the business environment and facilitate foreign direct investment (FDI). “This weakness in private investment has been attributed to local and global excess-capacity, leveraged corporate and bank balance sheets, and remaining domestic bottlenecks,” the Bank said.Private investment has played a central role in accelerating growth in India since the mid-1980s when India began liberalizing its economy. But private investment has slumped in the last three years leading to a slowdown in economic growth and its revival is vital for accelerating India’s growth rate on a sustained basis. It will be prudent on RBI’s part to reduce the interest rates to improve the cycle of monetary sustenance.Jobless Growth-Another major challenge is the jobless growth witnessed in the last few years. By some measure, Indian needs to create 10 million jobs a year for its young and rapidly expanding workforce. The graph below provides a sorry state of the job market.In the quarter century since economic reforms began, it is not manufacturing that has been the leading sector driving growth. Manufacturing should drive productivity in the whole economy. Services cannot, as services by definition ‘service’ the distribution of produced goods. There should be cluster development to support job creation in micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs). Most of the unorganised sector employment is in MSMEs, which tend to be concentrated in specific geographic locations.There is a cluster development programme of the Ministry of MSMEs, which is poorly funded and could be better designed as well.Another way to improve the job prospects will be by improving the competency & skill level of the youth. The ITIs and the polytechnic institute established long time ago have not been able to justify their existence. These institutes were established to provide industry specific skills for manufacturing companies from welding, foundry to workshop knowledge, etc. These institutes still have imperial age curriculum, no vision on industry internships, no guarantee placements, etc.Access to Credit-Credit access is one of the most significant ways to provide better success prospects. With a low penetration of banks & their outlets, highly rural and illiterate population, low access to internet and strict provisions for loans, it is difficult for a poor person to get loan. The only option for him/her is to take loan at high interest rates from high worth individuals thus making it a vicious cycle. By implementing innovative loan process, such as the Grameen Ban way of providing loan in which you provide loan to a group of people so that there is both an economic & social incentive to pay the loan back. Another way is to open more female focused banks, the Mahila Bank being an example. By providing credit to female population will surely go a long way in having efficient utilization of credit.
What is Narendra Modi doing for ‘Start-Up India, Stand-Up India’?
Prime Minister's some of the action plan points on Startup India are:Self-certification based compliance.No inspection for the first three years.Includes self-certified environmental regulation.Startup India Hub. A single point of contact.A system of hand-holding.A mobile app to start a startup in one day.The app will have a small application form that can be easily filled for your registration.Patents usually take months. We are bringing a scheme to make filing patents simpler.We are lacking in IP (intellectual property), but we have a lot of YP (youth property). We have to bring them on a single plane.We are trying to increase participation of women in startups.Tax exemption on investments above fair market value.We are starting the Atal Innovation Mission to give an impetus to innovation and encourage the talent among our people.Core innovation programmes in 5 lakh schoolsTrying to facilitate free patent filing. Today we are reducing patent fee by 80 per cent.We are planning relaxed norms of public procurement for startups.There are ways to close doors to the new ideas. We want to open them.There is no exit plan for startups. We are making faster exits for startups because failures shouldn't stop you forever. One who runs away from water cannot learn to swim.We are bringing a bill in Parliament to let startups can exit 90 days.Rs. 10,000 crore corpus fund for startups.A credit guarantee fund for startups.Tax exemption on capital gains.When someone invests their own wealth, they will be exempted from capital gains tax. Three-year tax exemption for startups.Source: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/startupindia-summit-16012016-new-delhi-nett-aditya-awasthee
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