Weekly Real Estate Statistical Update: Fill & Download for Free

There is a statistic I was given about 4 years back from a Managing Broker I was interviewing with. I am an INFJ who worked as a CFO’s Admin Assitant for 15 years before getting my license in Real Estate in 2005.The statistic is that introverted, mature women are the most successful agents in real estate. When this very Extroverted young male told me that, I was a little shocked but happy. I was a successful, mature introverted real estate agent. Here are the pros and cons with Introversion as real estate agents:I do not like getting leads from leads groups. Yuck. Having conversations and trying to “connect” in these situations is not for me. You might join one for growth anyway.75–80% of my leads come from satisfied client referring me. Before I was successful, I bought a lot of my leads. When people need a professional, you can be extroverted upon first phone call because its a subject you know and love. I also like helping people. My listening skills are stellar. I let them talk and tell me what their real estate goals are. I’m naturally encouraging. Because of my attention to detail, I’m able to quickly outline a plan, bring up any road blocks and reach a consensus with people very easily. So upon meeting them, we are already comfortable with each other.Many times, I’ve gotten the contract from a multiple-offer situation because I wrote a better offer. I’ve also gained clients after them having met other real estate agents. I’m personable, do not dominate the situation & am a can-do problem solver who makes people feel like they are in control of their situation with me as their coach. There are quite a few of us out there quietly making our clients happy and in the process, we make a living. Young introverts, slow down and learn these life skills I’ve outlined, they will serve you well.There are times when I crawl thru the front door of my home, ready to eat chocolate (I don’t drink) and be alone with my ipad or book. I will admit being with people for days on end tires me out. I don’t usually work on Mondays, as I’ve worked the weekend. I’ve been known to take a morning off work when things are slow. I’ve learned that working 24–7 is bad for me long-term. You’ll know when a lull in your business is coming, and when it does, treat yourself to an activity that enriches and heals.What I love about being this very strange INFJ is that when I meet the couple, I can quickly assess if the pair are on the same page, if there is a struggle, if they have concerns, etc. In a gentle way, I’m able to get these concerns answered and also understand the dynamics of their relationship. It helps me never to make a situation worse and often times, they’ll eventually tell me where the struggle lies. All without invading their space or calling attention to an awkward situation. It is so rewarding. And of course, it is draining at times, but that’s life.For the record, I like being an introvert. Sometimes the very loud, confident Extrovert can come across as overbearing to some folks. So being Introverted doesn’t always mean socially backward. We are less showy but can be strong and diligent even when someone is attempting to push us around. Introverts can be stubborn and I promise you, we have thought thru a sticky situation to come up with a plan most times before the more gregarious an oftentime aggressive extrovert. I have a stabling affect on transactions and can get what my clients negotiated for, in the midst of the other broker’s melt down.I am far from perfect and sometimes feel frustrated when I’m doing an excellent job in a transaction but one of the individuals in the buyer or seller couple isn’t happy. I can feel it way before its spoken. One time the man was a CPA and was more in charge of the money situation. The loan was complicated and involved him getting money from a retirement account. For about a week, there were lots of conversations that led the spouse to believe that it was taking too long and I must not be doing a good job. But in fact, for this type of situation, I was doing an excellent job and the sellers of their new house were confident and willing to wait this extra week. At first I was irritated within (but of course didn’t say anything) and then arranged for us to go over events, as an update to her. Once she received the overview, we had a great relationship and all was good. (Don’t assume the in-control spouse has kept the other spouse up-to-date…)So anyone out there that is younger and introverted, do not worry. Find ways in your job to stretch yourself in areas of weakness, learn new skills in small settings, watch your leaders who are quieter succeed. Statistics show that tall, good looking extroverts make the best sales people, however that is not the case in real estate. Us introverted, less tall agents who care about their people and are more likely to be analytical can and do succeed.

Every year this is predicted by eminent western economists and even by minor hacks such as myself that China has too much bad debt. And yet, every year it comes to pass. But past avoidance and ignorance of impending financial troubles and highly leveraged conditions are no indication of future abilities to continue to keep up the thumbs up contortion act.Mongolia - The Heiresses of Chinggis KhanOpaque operation of the government banks does not allow for reliable reporting on the extent of default debt. Properties in default are never reported, never foreclosed on, and never accounted for in any fashion resemblant of acknowledging they are in distress. For example in the summer of 2012 most construction in China as the government had decided to take a temporary reprieve from funding infrastructure investment, and by reprieve even though it was temporary it was comprehensive, no payments on conduction were being made. I asked about the lease arrangements for the thousands of cranes I saw parked in the thousands of unfinished vacant construction sites - oh the crane company can tell the government bank that the government stop paying the contractor that stopped paying the crane company so the crane company was stopping it’s payments to the government bank and the government bank would be ok with that. What perfect dissolution of fiduciary responsibility and banking practices, the entire country's crane companies were all in default on their bank payments and there was nothing being done about it!From 2008 through at least 2016 China has miraculously continued to use government fiscal spending to stimulate the economy and avert the ill effects the rest of the world is experiencing from the fall out of the 2008 Great Recession. This economic growth though real is fueled by government spending of cash reserves and significant increases to government debt. Recovery through fiscal stimulus is something the US completely failed to do in the Great Recession though in the Great Depression the US efforts on this regard significantly help the economy. Some moderation between the Chinese and US responses to the Great Recession is probably economically most favorable. Now China has too much debt and the US has too little stimulus. Though China’s economic stimulus program is commendable and forward looking as it has built a lot of infrastructure for immediate and future use (over built), as everyone knows there is a point where debt becomes a limiting issue reducing future economic flexibility and eating up current fiscal budgets.The following article is from early 2015 with statistics from 2014, China has continued implementing its successful fiscal economic stimulus plan keeping GDP growth relatively high while incurring huge amounts of debt, this is only getting worse.Debt and (not much) deleveraging — The ratio of debt to GDP has increased in all advanced economies since 2007. — quadrupling of China's debt, fueled by real estate and shadow banking, in just seven years.China's debt has quadrupled since 2007. Fueled by real estate and shadow banking, China's total debt has nearly quadrupled, rising to $28 trillion by mid-2014, from $7 trillion in 2007. At 282 percent of GDP, China's debt as a share of GDP, while manageable, is larger than that of the United States or Germany. Three developments are potentially worrisome: half of all loans are linked, directly or indirectly, to China's overheated real-estate market; unregulated shadow banking accounts for nearly half of new lending; and the debt of many local governments is probably unsustainable. However, MGI calculates that China's government has the capacity to bail out the financial sector should a property-related debt crisis develop. The challenge will be to contain future debt increases and reduce the risks of such a crisis, without putting the brakes on economic growth.The actual financial health of the Chinese economy and government resources is difficult to gauge as much of the government reported financial information we do receive is clearly a viva en rose view of the other verifiable financial we do have. Further economic data on provincial or corporate (especially government private joint ventures) is less reliable or simply not available. Further the opaque operation of the government banks does not allow for reliable reporting on the extent of default debt, there are a lot of non performing properties without any reported defaults.All economic analysis of the data points to a high probability that there is too much leverage and too little productive economy in the system, but it is not at all clear when if ever this house of cards will fall.Older similar indications of trouble:Erik Hille's answer to Is the Chinese Economy really slowing down?Why is China's economic growth slowing?Why do so many people think that China's economy will collapse?Chinese economic growth has fallen to 6.5%, the lowest in 25 years. Is the world economy about to collapse?Erik Hille's answer to Why is it estimated that Chinese economic growth is lower than official figures? This has a further discussion of why we should not believe the official growth figures. The economy is not growing at a healthy 6.5% as Godfree Robertsposes the rate is much lower, the graph below has it growing at less than 4% for the last 3 years, my back of the envelop guess would be even lower - recessionary - but that might just be me being paranoid. What ever the current lack of growth rate Xi, the people and the economy are concerned, the growth is below their expectations.One other note, due to the mutual benefits of trade, the US is and will continue to benefit from China's growth. In the modern globalized era economically there would be no benefit from going to war because of another countries growth. The US has not gone to war with prior military provocation. Finally there is a detente of avoiding wars between nuclear nations, when fraught these have been indirect proxy wars. Were China to invade one of it's neighbors the answer might be different, but there is no possibility of the US invading/attacking China for "economic" reasons.Why China Rattles the World - updated July 22, 2016A Stock Market Slide Ignites Broader FearsIt was rocky start to the new year, as investors worried about the health of China’s economy. In the first week of 2016, steep losses in the Chinese market triggered a circuit breaker, shutting down trading early and sparking a global rout. The situation has started to stabilize, with Chinese stocks edging higher of late.May 2016 update: Defying debt fears, China bets on infrastructure, property (was at NY Times now at Reuters)China is again borrowing to build more infrastructure and prop up the economy with construction and infrastructure jobs. This has been a successful strategy from 2008 till about 2013. But the economy has become attenuated to such aggressive fiscal spending policy and the high return projects that were obvious low hanging fruit were completed years ago. It is not that the new projects are make work, but the jobs in the manufacturing sector and urbanization - urban growth has not been sufficient to provide occupancy for prior real-estate construction. Building more empty infrastructure may create jobs but otherwise it may only create a supply and demand problem that would cause real-estate prices to fall an thus endanger existing mortgages. Further softening the banking sector that may already be sitting atop large cashes of non performing mortgages. “Beijing has ordered the closure of debt-ridden zombie firms as its policy priority for 2016. In contrast, first-quarter investment in infrastructure and real estate surged 19.6 percent and 6.2 percent, respectively. The numbers reflect the government's strategy of re-allocating capital to other engines of the economy, and in turn, providing a little respite to the steel, cement, energy and related services sectors. China will invest $11.9 billion in aviation infrastructure this year alone. It has also approved a 27.4 billion yuan high-speed rail project linking Beijing's new airport with neighboring Hebei province.”The Phantom Province in China's Economy - More on the inflated economic numbers being reported by the government of China.China's Growth Numbers May Finally Add Up... in 2019 - Bloomberg - perhaps in 2019 official statistics coming out of China will add up for the first time - the parts will equal the whole, what a concept - and the slow march towards transparency and unbiased reporting by the leader in controlling media-news content. At least they are moving in the right direction. Thank you Samuel Liu for the link.

From 2008 through at least 2016 China has miraculously continued to use government fiscal spending to stimulate the economy and avert the ill effects the rest of the world is experiencing from the fall out of the 2008 Great Recession. This economic growth though real is fueled by government spending of cash reserves and significant increases to government debt. Recovery through fiscal stimulus is something the US completely failed to do in the Great Recession though in the Great Depression the US efforts on this regard significantly help the economy. Some moderation between the Chinese and US responses to the Great Recession is probably economically most favorable. Now China has too much debt and the US has too little stimulus. Though China’s economic stimulus program is commendable and forward looking as it has built a lot of infrastructure for immediate and future use (over built), as everyone knows there is a point where debt becomes a limiting issue reducing future economic flexibility and eating up current fiscal budgets.The following article is from early 2015 with statistics from 2014, China has continued implementing its successful fiscal economic stimulus plan keeping GDP growth relatively high while incurring huge amounts of debt, this is only getting worse.Debt and (not much) deleveraging — The ratio of debt to GDP has increased in all advanced economies since 2007. — quadrupling of China's debt, fueled by real estate and shadow banking, in just seven years.China's debt has quadrupled since 2007. Fueled by real estate and shadow banking, China's total debt has nearly quadrupled, rising to $28 trillion by mid-2014, from $7 trillion in 2007. At 282 percent of GDP, China's debt as a share of GDP, while manageable, is larger than that of the United States or Germany. Three developments are potentially worrisome: half of all loans are linked, directly or indirectly, to China's overheated real-estate market; unregulated shadow banking accounts for nearly half of new lending; and the debt of many local governments is probably unsustainable. However, MGI calculates that China's government has the capacity to bail out the financial sector should a property-related debt crisis develop. The challenge will be to contain future debt increases and reduce the risks of such a crisis, without putting the brakes on economic growth.The actual financial health of the Chinese economy and government resources is difficult to gauge as much of the government reported financial information we do receive is clearly a viva en rose view of the other verifiable financial we do have. Further economic data on provincial or corporate (especially government private joint ventures) is less reliable or simply not available. Further the opaque operation of the government banks does not allow for reliable reporting on the extent of default debt, there are a lot of non performing properties without any reported defaults.All economic analysis of the data points to a high probability that there is too much leverage and too little productive economy in the system, but it is not at all clear when if ever this house of cards will fall.Why China Rattles the World - updated July 22, 2016A Stock Market Slide Ignites Broader FearsIt was rocky start to the new year, as investors worried about the health of China’s economy. In the first week of 2016, steep losses in the Chinese market triggered a circuit breaker, shutting down trading early and sparking a global rout. The situation has started to stabilize, with Chinese stocks edging higher of late.May 2016 update: Defying debt fears, China bets on infrastructure, property (was at NY Times now at Reuters)China is again borrowing to build more infrastructure and prop up the economy with construction and infrastructure jobs. This has been a successful strategy from 2008 till about 2013. But the economy has become attenuated to such aggressive fiscal spending policy and the high return projects that were obvious low hanging fruit were completed years ago. It is not that the new projects are make work, but the jobs in the manufacturing sector and urbanization - urban growth has not been sufficient to provide occupancy for prior real-estate construction. Building more empty infrastructure may create jobs but otherwise it may only create a supply and demand problem that would cause real-estate prices to fall an thus endanger existing mortgages. Further softening the banking sector that may already be sitting atop large caches of non performing mortgages. “Beijing has ordered the closure of debt-ridden zombie firms as its policy priority for 2016. In contrast, first-quarter investment in infrastructure and real estate surged 19.6 percent and 6.2 percent, respectively. The numbers reflect the government's strategy of re-allocating capital to other engines of the economy, and in turn, providing a little respite to the steel, cement, energy and related services sectors. China will invest $11.9 billion in aviation infrastructure this year alone. It has also approved a 27.4 billion yuan high-speed rail project linking Beijing's new airport with neighboring Hebei province.”The Phantom Province in China's Economy - More on the inflated economic numbers being reported by the government of China.Toxic Loans Around the World Weigh on Global GrowthBy Peter Eavis Feb. 3, 2016 NYTBad debts have been a drag on economic activity ever since the financial crisis of 2008, but in recent months, the threat posed by an overhang of bad loans appears to be rising... Some analysts estimate that China’s troubled credit could exceed $5 trillion, … equivalent to half the size of the country’s annual economic output.There are six issues at play here in China's business cycle:1) China had a brilliant policy of fiscal spending on infrastructure construction that avoided many of the ill effects of the great recession. But at this point current demand for urbanization has been met or even exceeded as the rate of rural to urban migration is slowing or reversing as there are no new jobs in the cities.2) There is currently economic uncertainty in the rest of the world that may be part of a recovery slowdown, result is a reduction in the previously insatiable appetite for products made in China.3) Growth fueled by importing production technology will eventually come to an end.4) There may be the need for the development of better institutions to support the right innovate business development and growth.5) In the current low price oil regime there are winners and losers. As China is a net importer and consumer of oil, and further as China's developing middle class will only continue it's growth in energy consumption, China is a beneficiary/winner in this low price oil regime.6) Debt!