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There is a joke about Eritrea's military. God looks upon Eritrea and asks the angel Gabriel, "Why is Eritrea so green? I made that country dry and yellow."And Gabriel answers, "My Lord, those are military fatigues."The enmity between Ethiopia and Eritrea is arguably Africa's most passionate rivalry. In one corner, you have one of Africa's strongest and most efficient militaries. And in the other corner, you have the world's second-most militarized nation.Personally, I would state Ethiopia is capable of invading and occupying Eritrea, but the invasion would no doubt result in massive losses in manpower and equipment which would severely diminish Ethiopia's military as the primary stabilizing force in the region. A number of western nations, including the US, would rather this doesn't happen, as Ethiopia is pretty much the eye of a storm in a fragile area and stands as a bulwark against jihadist influence in the region.Let us first check the background. The Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) was founded after the fall of the Derg, a military junta which controlled both Ethiopia and Eritrea from 1974 to 1987, and its successor state, the People’s Democratic Republic of Ethiopia. Though it was announced initially as a multi-ethnic force, it took several years to transform the ENDF from a ragtag militia-oriented force to a structured conventional military.The Eritrean Defense Force (EDF) began as the military wing of the Eritrean People's Liberation Front, a political movement to liberate Eritrea from Ethiopian/Derg control. Once the Derg/People’s Democratic Republic of Ethiopia was dissolved, both nations were separated and to this day both parties maintain strangleholds on their countries.But relations between the two former allies quickly broke down during the 90s and Eritrea launched an attack on disputed border areas in 1998. The Ethiopians, still in the lengthy process of transforming their military, did not anticipate this move and were completely unprepared. But after a massive restructuring and rearming, the Ethiopian army gained the upper hand and made successful advances into Eritrea (I even remember seeing a truck convoy bringing large ship containers of equipment into the capital). The international community stepped in, and both nations signed a peace agreement before Ethiopia advanced deeper. While the Eritreans showed considerable innovative tactics and suffered fewer casualties, the last two decades has arguably favored Ethiopia in terms of military development.Today, the ENDF is ranked among the top five militaries of Africa, and that is not surprising considering the geography. To the west you have South Sudan, and to the east Somalia, two nations topping the fragile states list. Add Eritrea to the mix and go figure why the Ethiopian government prefers to have a capable military ready at all times.Although it has shortages regarding equipment, the military's two strongest advantages are population and experience. Ethiopia has the second largest population in Africa, with 24 million fit for active service and 2 million reaching service age annually. And as for experience, the Ethiopian military has been involved in one form of conflict or another since the 1930s.Ethiopian troops have been combating militants in Somalia since 2006. The ENDF is also the second-largest contributor of combat personnel to peacekeeping operations worldwide.But what is truly impressive is that although Ethiopia ranks below Nigeria, Egypt, South Africa and Algeria, it only uses a fraction of what these four nations spend on their military.African nations ranked according to military strength: *1. Egypt - .6214 (the closer to zero, the more power)2. Algeria - .87053. South Africa - .92334. Nigeria - 1.16025. Ethiopia - 1.2009Now, African nations ranked according to annual military spending:2015 Defense Budget by Country1. Algeria - 10.57 billion USD2. South Africa - 4.613. Egypt - 4.44. Angola - 4.155. Morocco - 3.46. Libya - 37. Sudan - 2.478. Nigeria - 2.339. Kenya - 595 million USD10. Tunisia - 55011. South Sudan - 54512. Ivory Coast - 54013. Cameroon - 37014. Ethiopia - 340 million USDIn other words, when looking from a demographic and financial point of view, the Ethiopian military is a sleeping giant. Like its military ranking, it is also the fifth-largest economy in Africa, but only uses a fraction of its available manpower and spends one-eighth of the annual defense budget of its closest equivalent Nigeria. In fact, Ethiopia has actually decreased its military budget, reversing Africa's trend of increasing budgets. And this is despite the country's impressive double-digit growth. Once known for its widespread famines, the "African Lion" is currently the third-fastest growing economy in the world.Ethiopia Spends Very Little Money on Its Military — And It Works — War Is BoringEritrea's ranking on the other hand is difficult to ascertain due to incomplete information. In contrast with Ethiopia, Eritrea has a higher percentage of the population serving in the armed forces. Despite its small size, it has one of the largest militaries in Africa. 5% of the 6.3 million Eritreans are living in military barracks at any given time, and these are just the standing forces. Observers estimate that the EDF has at least 100,000 active troops stationed alongside the Ethiopian border. Mandatory conscription includes both men and women.Currently, it ranks as the second-most militarized nation in the world, aptly called "Africa's North Korea", and nowhere is this stranglehold more visible than in the EDF.If you write "Eritrean military" on Google, you will find article after article highlighting the miserable conditions of their army. Task & Purpose writes "Eritrea is the last place in the world you would want to serve in the military", and that is impressive considering the competition. There is a reason why more migrants have fled from Eritrea than any other African country, and that is to avoid the nation's infamous conscription. As one conscripted Eritrean soldier stated:“The hearts and minds of the conscripts are elsewhere, not in Eritrea. A large majority spend their time planning to escape, and daydreaming. A defence force cannot be built by daydreamers.”Regarding the economy, Eritrea's growth is hampered by restrictive economic and social policies. With the youth emigrating in droves (5,000 per month according to some) and the military's high conscription, the country has acute labor shortages and famines as there are fewer able-bodied men, and women, to hold jobs or work the fields. While Ethiopia enjoys a GDP of at least 150 billion dollars, Eritrea has to rely upon a mere 7.8 billion dollars (2014 figures), resulting in one of the highest military expenditures in the world. Businesses are mostly in the hands of party members and corrupt officers, while crippling taxes are placed upon private actors thus scaring away foreign investors. Eritrea is also one of two nations in the world which taxes its own people living abroad, adding a significant amount of revenue to the government.Note: Many have pointed out that the United States taxes foreign citizens abroad, though there are certain distinctions.So would an army in this state be enough to hold off one of Africa's rising superpowers? Hard to say, but as Peter Topping mentioned earlier, the cost would undeniably be high. Although the EDF may seem to outsiders as a demoralized military controlled by corrupt officers, a full-out invasion by the ENDF could reignite the old patriotic flames which gave Eritrea its independence back during the civil war.Just like their respective nations, both militaries have strong contrasts. The ENDF is a fan of proactive strikes, while the EDF is a defensive force that supports insurgent groups throughout the region. Currently the most advanced tank in the EDF is the T-55 while the ENDF complements their larger T-55 arsenal with newer T-62s and T-72s. The Ethiopian Air Force is also one of the few operators of the SU-27 fighter. Because the EDF lacks significant means to attack Ethiopia, it will focus on bogging down Ethiopian troops in a costly ground war. The EDF's acquisition of the 9M133 Kornet anti-tank missile and the 9K38 Igla SAM highlights their strategy of countering Ethiopia's tank and air supremacy.Should Ethiopia decide to invade, they will likely begin with air strikes to ground Eritrea's aircraft, which will be followed by mobilized infantry supported by tanks and artillery. In this situation, the EDF can rely upon two factors: their mobility and popular support. Although the EDF lacks ENDF's firepower, a strong, latent patriotism continues to run among Eritreans. Even though the current leadership is not popular, many would take up arms to liberate the country from their historical enemy. If combined with the EDF's mobile weaponry, a dangerous guerilla force may rise to resist the ENDF.So as a result, an invasion could present Ethiopia with a bigger problem. It would replace the conventional, yet greatly demoralized EDF with a massive motivated guerilla force supported by other insurgency groups in the region, thus destabilizing the area even more. The small coastal nation of Djibouti is Ethiopia's gateway to the Red Sea, and any violence spilling over from Eritrea or Somalia would be detrimental to Ethiopia's growing economy. 70% of Djibouti's seaport activity consists of import and export goods from its larger neighbor. It's quite understandable why the Ethiopian government, and its foreign benefactors, prefer a hands-off approach.But the truth of the matter is that Ethiopia may not have a choice. Considering the population exodus and current political status of Eritrea, the country will undeniably face great problems if (or rather when) the current leadership is challenged. Since 1991, Eritrean president Isaias Afwerki has grown increasingly paranoid and many of his closest supporters are either dead or imprisoned. Even within the military, cracks of dissent are beginning to appear as veterans grow more disillusioned with Afwerki's failed promises of prosperity and democracy. Given the country's high number of weapons and militarization, civil war is not an unlikely outcome should Afwerki be removed and militant extremism will push Eritrea down the same path as Libya, Yemen and Central African Republic. Eritrea's proximity to Somalia and its significant Sunni population could lead to an additional sectarian front on the continent, and in such an event, Ethiopia may be compelled once more to act as the center of stability in the region, for better or worse. When God looks upon Eritrea the next time, it may be the color red.* Updated on April 18th 2016. Ethiopia is now currently listed as the third most powerful military in Africa.Egypt .3056Algeria .4514Ethiopia .7619Nigeria .7856South Africa .8252African Military Power

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