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“From season to season and year to year, weather events that were once rare occurrences are now increasingly commonplace.”How Climate Change Is Fueling Extreme WeatherAbout two-thirds of the 190 major weather events since 2004 were found to have been exacerbated by human-induced climate change"And, they report in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, they found what they call “an emergent positive trend in damage, which we attribute to a detectable change in extreme storms due to global warming.” And they add: “The frequency of the most damaging hurricanes has increased at the rate of 350% per century.”"Worst hurricanes both more frequent and harmful | Climate News NetworkEl Nino swings more violently in the industrial age, compelling hard evidence saysEnhanced El Niño‐Southern Oscillation variability in recent decadesMaybe this is the summer we all start to believe in global warmingScientists Say Rising Temperatures Make Hurricanes Like Dorian 'More Devastating'How Supercomputers Are Making Hurricane Forecasting Much EasierHow climate change is making hurricanes more dangerous » Yale Climate ConnectionsExtreme weather affected 62 million people last year, UN climate change report saysDroughts, heatwaves and floods: How to tell when climate change is to blameWeather forecasters will soon provide instant assessments of global warming’s influence on extreme events.Weather is getting weirder (2018 has been full of weird weather so far). We are getting rain bombs (Rain Bombs: Increasing Precipitation Extremes), severe blasts of icy cold air from the Arctic (Polar Vortex: How the Jet Stream and Climate Change Bring on Cold Snaps), super hurricanes (Hurricane Florence’s Unusual Extremes Worsened by Climate Change), extreme heat waves (This Summer’s Heat Waves Could Be the Strongest Climate Signal Yet), and other unprecedented weather patterns (Federal climate report warns of more weather 'weirding.'Extreme weather explicitly blamed on humans for the first timeUntil now scientists have been cagey about linking extreme weather events such as this summer's heatwave to climate change. An emerging field is changing all thatScientists are finally linking extreme weather to climate changeClimate change behind the ferocious wildfires, says Professor Mann:{{ngMeta.title}}Summer weather is getting 'stuck' due to Arctic warmingRising Arctic temperatures mean we face a future of ‘extreme extremes’ where sunny days become heatwaves and rain becomes floods, study saysSummer weather patterns are increasingly likely to stall in Europe, North America and parts of Asia, according to a new climate study that explains why Arctic warming is making heatwaves elsewhere more persistent and dangerous.Rising temperatures in the Arctic have slowed the circulation of the jet stream and other giant planetary winds, says the paper, which means high and low pressure fronts are getting stuck and weather is less able to moderate itself.Summer weather is getting 'stuck' due to Arctic warmingDroughtsAre greenhouse gases released by human activities affecting precipitation and drought? Yes, and the answer is in the trees:NASA Study: Human Influence on Global Droughts Goes Back 100 Years – Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet (NASA Study: Human Influence on Global Droughts Goes Back 100 Years – Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet)For the first time, scientists at NASA GISS have linked human activities with patterns of drought around the world. Getting clues from tree ring atlases, historical rain and temperature measurements, and modern satellite-based soil moisture measurements, the researchers found the data "fingerprint" showing that greenhouse gases were influencing drought risk as far back as the early 1900's. Credit: NASA Goddard/ LK WardSTORMS/HURRICANES/CYCLONES AND TORNADOESLatest:https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/11/11/hurricanes-weaken-slowly-landfall/?fbclid=IwAR20dsVnKa38Yc6popuv7WbzKbQVy6VYv0Vw4wxbdg7AzorCkdmAjTC1AJ4The @WMO TC expert team finds in its 2019 report that "ten of 11 authors concluded that the balance of evidence suggests that there is a detectable increase in the global average intensity of the strongest (hurricane-strength) TCs since the early 1980s".Stefan RahmstorfTropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part I. Detection and AttributionIs Climate Change Fueling Tornadoes?Studies suggest an increase in tornado swarms and possible shifts in storm tracks, but what about global warming connections? Here's what scientists had to say.Tornadoes need three things to form: warm, moist air near the ground, cold and dry air above, and horizontal winds generally getting stronger with height, and turning as you go up, Brooks said.At ground level, the winds blow from the equator; at high elevation, from the west. The clash of those winds twists the rising bubbles of hot, moist air into destructive vortices.The central U.S. is a hotbed for severe weather due to the presence of the Rocky Mountains and the Gulf of Mexico, said University of Missouri atmospheric scientist Anthony Lupo. "These geographical features set the stage for the collision of cold dry air from Canada meeting warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico. This contrast in the density of air masses gives rise to storm systems that spawn severe weather."As the planet warms, Brooks said, "we expect the warm moist air at low levels will increase. But the changes in winds with height (wind shear), is projected to decrease on average."Is Climate Change Fueling Tornadoes?Scientists Say Rising Temperatures Make Hurricanes Like Dorian 'More Devastating'How climate change is making hurricanes more dangerous » Yale Climate ConnectionsHuman-caused climate change was the driving force behind Hurricane Maria’s devastating and deadly precipitation, a new study finds.Maria hit Puerto Rico on September 20, 2017 as a super-hurricane with 155-mile-per-hour winds. The record-breaking storm caused more than $90 billion in damage, with independent fatality estimates ranging from 2,975 deaths to “more than 5,000.”The authors of the new Geophysical Research Letters study concluded that a Maria-level hurricane “is nearly five times more likely to form now than during the 1950s, an increase due largely to the effects of human-induced warming.”How does global warming drive extreme deluges? As lead author David Keellings explained, it’s the combination of key long-term changes in the climate “like the atmosphere getting warmer, sea surface temperatures increasing, and more moisture being available in the atmosphere.”Scientists explain how climate change made Hurricane Maria so devastatingThere is a major distinction most people miss.Takeaways:Climate change do not create bad weather, extreme weather or natural disasters, but climate change exacerbate them. Because of climate change there is an increase in more loaded extreme weathers which strengthen faster. This was as predicted by scientists.For “normal” extreme weathers, there are no increase, maybe even a little decline. More hurricanes was only at 50% certain in the latest IPCC report.Five Takeaways from the IPCC Report on Extreme Weather and Climate ChangeWhat the IPCC report says about extreme weather events | Carbon Brief2013:“On hurricanes, climate models predict it is more likely than not – meaning that there is over a 50 per cent chance – that the number of the most intense storms will increase in certain parts of the world. Globally, however, the IPCC says it’s likely the number of tropical cyclones will “either decrease or remain essentially unchanged”.“It’s hard to make predictions about these types of storms as the processes involved occur on much smaller scales than climate models can currently replicate.”Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis“Hurricanes, tropical cyclones and typhoons aren’t getting more frequent, either: but they are getting stronger as they’re super-charged by warming oceans. They are also intensifying faster and getting bigger, slower, and with a lot more rain associated with them. It’s estimated that nearly 40% of the rain that fell during Hurricane Harvey would not have fallen if the exact same storm had occurred a hundred years ago.”Katharine Hayhoe's answer to What effects of climate change are already apparent today?Climate scientist Katharine Hayhoe explains:Powerful hurricanes strengthen faster now than 30 years agoHurricanes that intensify rapidly—a characteristic of almost all powerful hurricanes—do so more strongly and quickly now than they did 30 years ago, according to a study published recently in Geophysical Research Letters, a journal of the American Geophysical Union.Powerful hurricanes strengthen faster now than 30 years agoHuman-caused climate change was the driving force behind Hurricane Maria’s devastating and deadly precipitation, a new study finds.Maria hit Puerto Rico on September 20, 2017 as a super-hurricane with 155-mile-per-hour winds. The record-breaking storm caused more than $90 billion in damage, with independent fatality estimates ranging from 2,975 deaths to “more than 5,000.”The authors of the new Geophysical Research Letters study concluded that a Maria-level hurricane “is nearly five times more likely to form now than during the 1950s, an increase due largely to the effects of human-induced warming.”How does global warming drive extreme deluges? As lead author David Keellings explained, it’s the combination of key long-term changes in the climate “like the atmosphere getting warmer, sea surface temperatures increasing, and more moisture being available in the atmosphere.”Scientists explain how climate change made Hurricane Maria so devastatingNorthwestern Pacific typhoon intensity controlled by changes in ocean temperaturesNorthwestern Pacific typhoon intensity controlled by changes in ocean temperaturesWith Tropical Storm Ophelia’s transition to Hurricane Ophelia on Wednesday, 2017 became the first year in more than a century — and only the fourth on record — in which 10 Atlantic storms in a row reached hurricane strength.10 Hurricanes in 10 Weeks: With Ophelia, a 124-Year-Old Record is Matchedhttps://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/12/28/16795490/natural-disasters-2017-hurricanes-wildfires-heat-climate-change-cost-deathsMore tornadoes in the most extreme U.S. tornado outbreakshttp://science.sciencemag.org/content/354/6318/1419This, combined with rising sea levels, has also led to larger storm surges and the costs of the damage that goes with them. As Grinsted et al. (2013)concluded,"we have probably crossed the threshold where Katrina magnitude hurricane surges are more likely caused by global warming than not."Global warming also adds moisture to the atmosphere, with the increase in precipitation also adding to the flooding associated with these storms, and the damages they cause. The bottom line is that many types of extreme weather are being intensified by human-caused global warming, and that will continue in the future. And there is evidence that climate change is adding to the costs of extreme weather damage.Category 3+ Hurricanes on the Rise in the AtlanticWarmer water fuels hurricanes, and not surprisingly, the average number of major hurricanes — those Category 3 or higher — has increased in the Atlantic basin since the 1970s. Globally, climate models project that there will likely be an increase in the wind speed and rainfall intensity of the strongest hurricanes (aka tropical cyclones), even though their frequency may remain unchanged or even decrease by the end of this century. However, the extent of these effects from climate change will vary by regionCategory 3+ Hurricanes on the Rise in the AtlanticThe 2017 North Atlantic hurricane season had 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and six major hurricanes. This is well above the 1981-2010 average of 12.1 named storms, 6.4 hurricanes, and 2.7 major hurricanes.https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/tornadoes/201013The ferocious “frankenstorm” known as Sandy that ripped through greater New York City five years ago remains one for the record books. Like this year’s hurricane season, it racked up tens of billions of dollars in economic damages.Superstorm Sandy had another close, yet underappreciated, similarity to this year’s hurricanes: less affluent groups of people suffered more, both in the initial damage and recovery.An analysis by a team I led at Stony Brook University shows that Sandy’s destructive path across Long Island, from Brooklyn to the Hamptons, was not as even-handed as media coverage often made it seem, both in its initial impact and people’s recovery.The storm season of 2017 has already left behind an even more dramatic version of this story: Following Hurricane Harvey, Houston quickly switched water and electricity back on and emptied most emergency shelters. Meanwhile, several weeks after Hurricane Maria hit Puerto Rico, much of the island is still in “survival mode.” Both hurricane seasons expose the close ties between severe weather events and social inequality.https://theconversation.com/storms-hit-poorer-people-harder-from-superstorm-sandy-to-hurricane-maria-87658?utm_content=buffercd52b&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=bufferHuman influence on tropical cyclone intensityhttps://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes-figures/https://www8.gsb.columbia.edu/socialenterprise/sites/socialenterprise/files/Adam%20Sobel_Research1.pdf“As the 21st century proceeds, we expect greenhouse gas warming to further outpace aerosol cooling and PI increases to exceed those observed to date. TC intensities at any given fixed location should increase accordingly, on average; simulations suggest trends on the order of 1ms–1 decade–1 at the high end. If poleward shifts continue, these increases will be manifest in increases in activity at the poleward margins of TC basins, as well as in the occurrence of more intense storms (if perhaps fewer storms overall) in the historical cores of the basins.”https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/wp-content/uploads/pix/user_images/tk/global_warm_hurr/Adjust_TS_Count.pngClimate change is making storms like Florence worseRecent Scientific Advancements Show New Connections Between Climate Change and HurricanesHurricane Florence’s Unusual Extremes Worsened by Climate ChangeHow Climate Change Is Creating A New Breed Of HurricaneHurricane Lane Brings Hawaii a Warning About Future Storm Risk__________________________________________________________Hurricanes are a subset of tropical cyclones and are typically called typhoons in Asia. We have already seen clear statistical evidence of greater frequency and severity of typhoons hitting land in Asia over the past 40 years.The paper this is from was co-authored by Wei Mei & Shang-Ping Xie from the Scripps Institute of Oceanograpy and published in Nature Geoscience. As they say in the abstract:over the past 37 years, typhoons that strike East and Southeast Asia have intensified by 12–15%, with the proportion of storms of categories 4 and 5 having doubled or even tripled.Confounding factors in the Atlantic including shear mitigated for warmer oceans until the 2017 season, when seven records for hurricane activity and severity were broken. The accumulated cyclone energy was 50% above the level required for the season to be considered extremely active.Three studies using three different methodologies confirmed that Hurricane Harvey was worsened by global warming.Harvey could not have produced so much rain without human‐induced climate change.Hurricane Harvey links to Ocean Heat Content and Climate Change Adaptationwe conclude that global warming made the precipitation about 15% (8%–19%) more intense, or equivalently made such an event three (1.5–5) times more likely.http://iopscience.iop.org/articl...precipitation accumulations in these areas were likely increased by at least 18.8% (best estimate of 37.7%), which is larger than the 6–7% associated with an attributable warming of 1°C in the Gulf of Mexico and Clausius‐Clapeyron scaling.Attributable Human‐Induced Changes in the Likelihood and Magnitude of the Observed Extreme Precipitation during Hurricane HarveyHarvey wasn’t a particularly intense hurricane by either the common Saffir-Simpson Scale or the slightly more accurate Accumulated Cyclonic Energy Scale (ACE). It’s rainfall due to first increased water vapor due to warmer water and it’s stalling over Houston due to a jetstream oscillation associated with global warming caused the problem. As a note, this is part of why Hurricane Florence is so concerning; it’s predicted to stall over the Carolinas, unleashing historically unprecedented floods.Similarly, Sandy wasn’t a particularly strong hurricane when it hit New York and area. It was, however, very wide and very slow moving. That contributed to storm surge, flooding, a greater area of damage and more time for the winds to do damage. I’ve posited a notional improved hurricane severity scale as a thought exercise and it more correctly asserts the damaging aspect of Sandy, but fails to capture Harvey’s impact.Michael Barnard's answer to Has the intensity of this year’s hurricane season been directly correlated to climate change?_______________________________________________________________________HEAT WAVESUnited In ScienceLandmark United in Science report informs Climate Action SummitIntense, prolonged heatwaves, such as the record-breaking ones we’ve seen around the world in recent years, will become stronger and more frequent. The 2003 European heatwave, responsible for over 70,000 deaths as well as extensive wildfires and flooding from melting glaciers, was one of the first events for which the impact of human-induced climate change on the event could be formally qualified. Scientists determined that,“human influence at least doubled the risk” of this event.https://qr.ae/TUtx6PAs global surface temperatures have increased, heatwaves are becoming more frequent. Coumou, Robinson, and Rahmstorf 2013 found that record-breaking monthly temperature records are already occurring five times more often than they would in the absence of human-caused global warming. This means that there is an 80% chance that any monthly heat record today is due to human-caused global warming.https://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-012-0668-1https://www.skepticalscience.com/heatwaves-past-global-warming-climate-change-intermediate.htmThe link between GW and heatwaves confirmed:Are the heatwaves caused by climate change?In France, 14,802 heat-related deaths (mostly among the elderly) occurred during the heat wave, according to the French National Institute of Health2003 European heat wave - WikipediaEstimated 70 Deaths Linked To Canada's Heat WaveDeaths rose 650 above average during UK heatwave – with older people most at riskUK heatwave turns KILLER: 1,000 more people die this summer than average as temps soar'Unprecedented' Japan heatwave kills 65 people in a weekWe're Going to Die in Record Numbers as Heatwaves Bake The World, First Global Study ShowsHeat records falling twice as often as cold ones, AP findsFOREST FIRES / WILD FIRES:United In Science“As we approach meteorological summer, which is the dry season in the West, risk will grow for another extreme related to climate change — wildfires. While these blazes can happen anywhere in the country, many occur in the 11 western states across the Mountain and Pacific time zones. Western wildfires killed 160 people and cost more than $40 billion in the past two years alone. Across the West, there have been more large fires, burning more acres — particularly in warmer years.”Large Western Wildfires on the Rise“Wildfire isn’t becoming more frequent, but in fire-prone areas such as western Canada and the U.S., fires are burning greater and greater areas due to the increasing frequency of hot, dry conditions. Since the mid-1980s, it’s estimated that human-induced climate change has nearly doubled the area burned across the western U.S. compared to what would have occurred naturally.”Katharine Hayhoe's answer to What effects of climate change are already apparent today?Source: Fourth National Climate Assessment: Chapter 25: SouthwestLets ask the experts.The US Forest Service:Here in our National Forests and Grasslands, these shifts include:More frequent wildfires that burn larger areasMore severe problems with insects, pests, and diseases threatening trees and cropsSnowpack decline in mountainous regions due to decreased snowfall and shorter wintersPlant and animal ranges shifting northward to accommodate warmer temperaturesThreatened watersheds due to more frequent water shortages, increased pest and fire severity, and shifts in ecosystem health"For all ecoregions combined, the number of large fires increased at a rate of seven fires per year, while total fire area increased at a rate of 355 km2 per year. Continuing changes in climate, invasive species, and consequences of past fire management, added to the impacts of larger, more frequent fires, will drive further disruptions to fire regimes of the western U.S. and other fire-prone regions of the world."Climate Change | US Forest ServiceWhat are the Impacts?Wildfireshttp://wxshift.com/climate-chang...2018 is one of the worst years for Colorado's wildfires, five blazes make top 20The Forest Service and Climate Change:WHAT DOES THE PEER REVIEWED SCIENCE SAY ON AGW AND WILD FIRES?Large wildfire trends in the western United States, 1984–2011GRLWe used a database capturing large wildfires (> 405 ha) in the western U.S. to document regional trends in fire occurrence, total fire area, fire size, and day of year of ignition for 1984–2011. Over the western U.S. and in a majority of ecoregions, we found significant, increasing trends in the number of large fires and/or total large fire area per year. Trends were most significant for southern and mountain ecoregions, coinciding with trends toward increased drought severity. For all ecoregions combined, the number of large fires increased at a rate of seven fires per year, while total fire area increased at a rate of 355 km2 per year. Continuing changes in climate, invasive species, and consequences of past fire management, added to the impacts of larger, more frequent fires, will drive further disruptions to fire regimes of the western U.S. and other fire‐prone regions of the world.. DOI: 10.1002/2014GL059576https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wi...Abatzoglou and Williams 2016 - Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forestsPNASIncreased forest fire activity across the western United States in recent decades has contributed to widespread forest mortality, carbon emissions, periods of degraded air quality, and substantial fire suppression expenditures. Although numerous factors aided the recent rise in fire activity, observed warming and drying have significantly increased fire-season fuel aridity, fostering a more favorable fire environment across forested systems. We demonstrate that human-caused climate change caused over half of the documented increases in fuel aridity since the 1970s and doubled the cumulative forest fire area since 1984. This analysis suggests that anthropogenic climate change will continue to chronically enhance the potential for western US forest fire activity while fuels are not limiting."Anthropogenic increases in temperature and vapor pressure deficit significantly enhanced fuel aridity across western US forests over the past several decades and, during 2000–2015, contributed to 75% more forested area experiencing high (>1 σ) fire-season fuel aridity and an average of nine additional days per year of high fire potential.Anthropogenic climate change accounted for ∼55% of observed increases in fuel aridity from 1979 to 2015 across western US forests, highlighting both anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variability as important contributors to increased wildfire potential in recent decades.We estimate that human-caused climate change contributed to an additional 4.2 million ha of forest fire area during 1984–2015, nearly doubling the forest fire area expected in its absence.doi: 10.1073/pnas.1607171113"http://www.pnas.org/content/113/...Warming and Earlier Spring Increase Western U.S. Forest Wildfire ActivityWestern United States forest wildfire activity is widely thought to have increased in recent decades, yet neither the extent of recent changes nor the degree to which climate may be driving regional changes in wildfire has been systematically documented. Much of the public and scientific discussion of changes in western United States wildfire has focused instead on the effects of 19th- and 20th-century land-use history. We compiled a comprehensive database of large wildfires in western United States forests since 1970 and compared it with hydroclimatic and land-surface data. Here, we show that large wildfire activity increased suddenly and markedly in the mid-1980s, with higher large-wildfire frequency, longer wildfire durations, and longer wildfire seasons.http://science.sciencemag.org/co...Climate-induced variations in global wildfire danger from 1979 to 2013NATURE"We show that fire weather seasons have lengthened across 29.6 million km2 (25.3%) of the Earth’s vegetated surface, resulting in an 18.7% increase in global mean fire weather season length. We also show a doubling (108.1% increase) of global burnable area affected by long fire weather seasons (>1.0 σ above the historical mean) and an increased global frequency of long fire weather seasons across 62.4 million km2 (53.4%) during the second half of the study period."doi:10.1038/ncomms8537https://www.nature.com/articles/..."There is very well documented scientific evidence that climate change has been increasing the length of the fire season, the size of the area burned each year and the number of wildfires.Greenhouse gas emissions, via the greenhouse effect, are causing the global temperature to increase and the climate to change. This enhances the likelihood of wildfires.Why?Because warmer temperatures increase evaporation, which means the atmosphere draws more moisture from soils, making the land drier.A warmer climate also leads to earlier snowmelt, which causes soils to be drier for longer. And dry soils become more susceptible to fire."The areas where wildfires are taking place are always areas that [have become] drier and hotter, and where spring has come earlier," said Funk.Drier conditions and higher temperatures increase not only the likelihood of a wildfire to occur, but also the duration and the severity of the wildfire. Wildfires are typically either started accidentally by humans - such as a burning cigarette carelessly tossed out of a window - or by natural causes like lightning.http://www.dw.com/en/how-climate...Here's how to respond to those misleading posts claiming our recent fires are all about tree huggers preventing logging and a supposed fuel build up via past fire suppression.Here is the simple truth from the experts, The California Professional Firefighters and the US Forest Service and the best peer reviewed science:Most fires appeared outside the forestsand ,"For those few devastating fires that were near forests, all of those forests around the communities destroyed had the kind of suggested thinning and fuel treatments misinformed commentators claim didn't exist".All those denier arguments about logging and fuel is nonsense.It is more than discouraging when someone claims our wildfires are all about forests, dead trees, lack of logging, or unnatural fuel build up via past fire suppression. Such claims are a disservice to the families who have lost so much and hamper our efforts to solve the problem.https://www.facebook.com/californiachaparral/photos/pb.114672246017.-2207520000.1542827645./10156935032936018/?type=3&theater1. Most of California's most devastating fires were far from any forest (see map above).2. For those few devastating fires that were near forests, all of those forests around the communities destroyed had the kind of suggested thinning and fuel treatments misinformed commentators claim didn't exist.3. Much of the area around Paradise that burned in the Camp Fire had burned 10 years ago, had been salvage logged, and was composed of habitats other than forest (e.g. post fire shrublands). The wind-driven ember rain that destroyed the town came primarily from open grassland/post fire/mixed woodland environments northeast of the town. A large percentage of the trees within the devastated town did not burn. See the fire progression map here and match it with the current view on Google Earth:https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/map/6250/4/907914. Climate change is drying the state. Dryer conditions lead to a more flammable landscape. We may see more of the kind of winds that powered the Camp Fire into Paradise. More fires will dramatically alter the kinds of habitats we are used to seeing. Non-native weed filled landscapes that dominate places like Riverside County will likely become more common. More on this issue here:Loss of chaparralCalifornia Professional Firefighters:"The president’s assertion that California’s forest management policies are to blame for catastrophic wildfire is dangerously wrong," California Professional Firefighters President Brian K. Rice said in a statement on Saturday."Wildfires are sparked and spread not only in forested areas but in populated areas and open fields fueled by parched vegetation, high winds, low humidity and geography," he continued in the statement. "Moreover, nearly 60 percent of California forests are under federal management, and another two-thirds under private control. It is the federal government that has chosen to divert resources away from forest management, not California.https://abcnews.go.com/US/trump-threatens-pull-federal-funding-california-wildfires-gross/story?id=59102371https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/climate-change-make-wildfires-spread-factor/story?id=5693FLOODS AND SEA LEVEL RISE:http://www.climatecentral.org/ga...NOAA: Sea level has been rising over the past century, and the rate has increased in recent decades. In 2016, global sea level was 3.2 inches (82 mm) above the 1993 average—the highest annual average in the satellite record (1993-present).There was a huge climate report out just now from the USA:The report was peer reviewed by the National Academy of Sciences.You know, the academy founded by Abraham Lincoln.They have 200 Nobel Prize winners among their members.Global mean sea level (GMSL) has risen by about 7–8 inches (about 16–21 cm) since 1900, with about 3 of those inches (about 7 cm) occurring since 1993 (very high confidence). Human-caused climate change has made a substantial contribution to GMSL rise since 1900 (high confidence).http://www.climatecentral.org/gallery/graphics/natural-human-caused-coastal-flood-days-in-the-us1The economic damage from coastal flooding in Europe could reach almost €1 trillion per year by 2100 without new investment in adaptation to climate change, a new study finds.Coastal flooding in Europe ‘could cost up to €1 trillion per year’ by 2100 | Carbon BriefTHE FARMERSSomeone please tell the farmers of the world more C02 is "good for us" while they have their harvest hit by droughts or flooded by billions of tons of water because of AGW. And maybe those same people can send “thoughs and prayers” while we wait for the humanitarian and atheist help organizations to arrive with actual help?Farmers needs stability and predictability, not a rapidly warming and changing world.Rising carbon levels threaten diets of hundreds of millions of poorRising carbon emissions could make vital food crops from wheat to rice less nutritious and endanger the health of hundreds of millions of the world's poorestCertain staple crops grown in open fields with elevated carbon dioxide levels had up to 17 percent lower levels of protein, iron and zinc compared to those grown amid less of the gas, according to a study in the journal Nature Climate Change.Crop failure and bankruptcy threaten farmers as drought grips Europehttps://www.theguardian.com/envi...Another study published in Nature Climate Change last week concluded that higher temperatures will cause wheat production to decline. Just a 1°C rise in global temperature will decrease wheat yields by about 5% (approximately 35 million tons).Climate change will make rice less nutritious, putting millions of the world's poor at riskClimate change is bad news for several of our staple crops. For example, a 2012 paper found that higher temperatures are detrimental to French corn yields. While French corn production has increased steadily in recent decades due to a combination of technological improvements and CO2 fertilization (the former far more than the latter), yields have leveled off in recent years, and were particularly low when struck by heat waves.CO2: Friend or Foe to Agriculture? - FactCheck.org_____________________________________________________________________In sub-Saharan Africa, a much higher risk of droughts will lead to insufficient access to drinking and irrigation water, and reduced agricultural productivity.Vietnamese farmers are migrating en masse to escape climate changeThousands of kilometres of dykes, many over four metres high, now criss-cross the delta. They were built principally to protect people and crops from flooding, but those same dykes have fundamentally altered the ecosystem. The poor and the landless can no longer find fish to eat and sell, and the dykes prevent free nutrients being carried onto paddies by the flood.All this demonstrates that climate change threatens to exacerbate the existing trends of economic migration. One large scale study of migration in deltas has found that climate factors such as extreme floods, cyclones, erosion, and land degradation play a role in making natural resource-based livelihoods more tenuous, further encouraging inhabitants to migrate.Vietnamese farmers are migrating en masse to escape climate changeSEA LEVEL RISEIt’s already happening.Singapore to bolster coastal defences against rising sea levels: PMSea level rise already causing billions in home value to disappear"According to a new report by the nonprofit First Street Foundation, housing values in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut dropped $6.7 billion from 2005 to 2017 due to flooding related to sea level rise. Combined with their prior analysis of 5 southeastern coastal states with $7.4 billion in lost home value, the total loss in 8 states since 2005 has been $14.1 billion."Sea level rise already costs billions in lower home pricesMIAMI:Miami and Miami Beach already struggle with serious flooding related to sea-level rise — even when there is no rain.The ground under the cities of South Florida is largely porous limestone, which means water will eventually rise up through it.The cities are taking flood-control measures like installing pumps, raising roads, and restoring wetlands.Coastal cities around the world face similar problems.Miami is racing against time to keep up with sea-level riseThis Miami street could be the blueprint for how the city handles sea level riseThis Miami street could be the blueprint for how the city handles sea level riseThe risk of sea level rise is chipping away at Miami home values, new research showsUS coastal property prices have dropped 7% and insurance rates are rising.Here’s a good resource: When Rising Seas Hit Home: Hard Choices Ahead for Hundreds of US Coastal Communities (2017)Katharine Hayhoe's answer to At what level of influence does climate change have on the US coastline? Would this change disrupt ocean side real-estate?NEW ORLEANSThe current New Orleans dike and levee system is about 7 meters (23 feet) high on the Mississippi River side, and about 5.5 meters (17.5 feet) high along Lake Pontchartrain. The system, which failed spectacularly during Hurricane Katrina in 2005, has been patched up, but still needs some work (New Orleans under water: 12 years after Katrina, officials can't get it right). So any work done to prepare for sea level change plus geological subsidence will have to include shoring up the current levee system so that the added levee will be on a solid foundation.(Source: By Alexdi at English Wikipedia, CC BY-SA 3.0, File:New Orleans Elevations.jpg)According to studies presented by Climate Central, the current worst-case assessment (including recent concerns about Antarctic ice sheet instability) calls for about 2.5 meters (about 8 feet) of sea-level rise by the end of this century. In addition, New Orleans is sinking at a rate of about 2 inches (5 cm) annually - this will produce an additional 4 meters (13 feet) of sea level change (or at least effective sea level change) to accommodate. So if New Orleans keeps sinking at its current rate and sea level rises the maximum amount projected, New Orleans will have to build another 20 feet (6.5 meters) of dikes if they’re going to remain dry.THE NETHERLANDS:So to accommodate both sea level rise and subsidence the Army Corps of Engineers (or whatever company has bought out the privatized Army Corps of Engineers in the next few decades) will have to just about double the height of the existing levee system. Of course, the Dutch have been doing this for awhile (The Dutch Have Solutions to Rising Seas. The World Is Watching). I have no doubt that if the Dutch are consulted (and listened to) that New Orleans will remain safe for the next century or so.Andrew Karam's answer to Will New Orleans survive rising ocean levels into the next century?FUTURE SEA LEVEL RISELatest research:The rate of global sea level rise has been accelerating in recent decades, rather than increasing steadily, according to a new study based on 25 years of NASA and European satellite data. The new research suggests he world’s oceans will be on average at least 60 cm (23.6 inches)higher by the end of the century.Satellite observations show sea levels rising, and climate change is accelerating itNew study finds sea level rise accelerating – Climate Change: Vital Signs of the PlanetSea level rise is happening now, and the rate at which it is rising is increasing every year, according to a study released Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.Researchers, led by University of Colorado-Boulder professor of aerospace engineering sciences Steve Nerem, used satellite data dating to 1993 to observe the levels of the world's oceans.Using satellite data rather than tide-gauge data that is normally used to measure sea levels allows for more precise estimates of global sea level, since it provides measurements of the open ocean.- Brandon Miller, CNN, Feb 12, 2017https://www.theguardian.com/envi...http://edition.cnn.com/2018/02/1...http://www.pnas.org/content/earl...Antarctic Modeling Pushes Up Sea-Level Rise ProjectionsTHE NEW ESTIMATE OF 60 CM IS WITHIN THE RANGE OF PREDICTIONS FROM THE 2 MAIN CLIMATE REPORTS:Relative to the year 2000, GMSL is very likely to rise by 0.3–0.6 feet (9–18 cm) by 2030, 0.5–1.2 feet (15–38 cm) by 2050, and 1.0–4.3 feet (30–130 cm) by 2100 (very high confidencehttps://science2017.globalchange...IPCC:For high emissions IPCC now predicts a global rise by 52-98 cm by the year 2100, which would threaten the survival of coastal cities and entire island nations.Sea level in the 5th IPCC reportJULY 2018 - NEW VERY POWERFUL EVIDENCEAbstractWe provide scientific evidence that a human-caused signal in the seasonal cycle of tropospheric temperature has emerged from the background noise of natural variability. Satellite data and the anthropogenic “fingerprint” predicted by climate models show common large-scale changes in geographical patterns of seasonal cycle amplitude. These common features include increases in amplitude at mid-latitudes in both hemispheres, amplitude decreases at high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere, and small changes in the tropics. Simple physical mechanisms explain these features. The model fingerprint of seasonal cycle changes is identifiable with high statistical confidence in five out of six satellite temperature datasets. Our results suggest that attribution studies with the changing seasonal cycle provide powerful evidence for a significant human effect on Earth’s climate.Scientists studying the troposphere – the lowest level of the atmosphere – have found “powerful evidence” that climate change is altering seasonal temperatures.the findings show the “substantial human influence on Earth’s climate, affecting not only global averages, but also local and seasonal changes”, another scientist says.The results show that only simulations that include the impact of human-caused climate change could correctly predict the patterns of seasonal temperature change recorded by the satellites. The researchers say:“The real-world observations are much closer to model simulations that include increases in greenhouse gas concentrations, allowing us to attribute the observational record to human influence using formal climate detection and attribution techniques.”The results indicate that humans are having a “substantial influence” on the temperatures in the troposphere, says Dr William Randel, a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, who was not involved in the research. In an accompanying perspectives article, he writes:“[The] findings provide further markers of a substantial human influence on Earth’s climate, affecting not only global averages, but also local and seasonal changes.”Conclusion.Our results suggest that attribution studies with the seasonal cycle of tropospheric temperature provide powerful and novel evidence for a statistically significant human effect on Earth’s climate. We hope that this finding will stimulate more detailed exploration of the seasonal signals caused by anthropogenic forcing.‘Powerful evidence’ of global warming’s effect on seasons found in troposphere | Carbon BriefHuman influence on the seasonal cycle of tropospheric temperatureTHE PRICE OF GLOBAL WARMING IS GOING UP:It’s official: 2017 was the costliest year on record for natural disasters in the United States, with a price tag of at least $306 billion.It's also not surprising that hurricanes would now be doing more damage, because research has shown that the most intense hurricanes are already occurring more often as a result of human-caused global warming.http://www.climatecentral.org/gallery/graphics/number-cost-of-weather-disasters-is-increasing-in-the-us?utm_content=bufferf841e&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=bufferReinsurance company Munich Re provides data about the number of annual disasters, and the frequency of these events is indeed rising:“Earthquakes, storms, floods and droughts — the number of recorded loss events resulting from natural disasters has been increasing for some years now. Causing overall losses of US$ 210bn, the costliest natural disaster of all time is the Tohoku earthquake, which occurred in Japan on 11 March 2011. In terms of insured losses, the costliest natural disaster to date is Hurricane Katrina, which hit New Orleans in August 2005 and cost insurers a total of US$ 60.5bn (original values). “https://www.munichre.com/en/risks/natural-disasters-losses-are-trending-upwards.html

Its a natural thing being altered by global warming.Global Warming Is Messing with the Jet Stream. That Means More Extreme Weather.Weather forecasters will soon provide instant assessments of global warming’s influence on extreme events.About two-thirds of the 190 major weather events since 2004 were found to have been exacerbated by human-induced climate changeMaybe this is the summer we all start to believe in global warmingPolar Vortex: How the Jet Stream and Climate Change Bring on Cold SnapsHow frigid polar vortex blasts are connected to global warminghttps://www.noaa.gov/infographic/science-behind-polar-vortexWeather is getting weirder (2018 has been full of weird weather so far). We are getting rain bombs (Rain Bombs: Increasing Precipitation Extremes), severe blasts of icy cold air from the Arctic (Polar Vortex: How the Jet Stream and Climate Change Bring on Cold Snaps), super hurricanes (Hurricane Florence’s Unusual Extremes Worsened by Climate Change), extreme heat waves (This Summer’s Heat Waves Could Be the Strongest Climate Signal Yet), and other unprecedented weather patterns (Federal climate report warns of more weather 'weirding.'Summer weather is getting 'stuck' due to Arctic warmingRising Arctic temperatures mean we face a future of ‘extreme extremes’ where sunny days become heatwaves and rain becomes floods, study saysSummer weather patterns are increasingly likely to stall in Europe, North America and parts of Asia, according to a new climate study that explains why Arctic warming is making heatwaves elsewhere more persistent and dangerous.Rising temperatures in the Arctic have slowed the circulation of the jet stream and other giant planetary winds, says the paper, which means high and low pressure fronts are getting stuck and weather is less able to moderate itself.Summer weather is getting 'stuck' due to Arctic warmingExtreme weather explicitly blamed on humans for the first timeUntil now scientists have been cagey about linking extreme weather events such as this summer's heatwave to climate change. An emerging field is changing all thatScientists are finally linking extreme weather to climate changeClimate change behind the ferocious wildfires, says Professor Mann:{{ngMeta.title}}JULY 2018 - NEW VERY POWERFUL EVIDENCEAbstractWe provide scientific evidence that a human-caused signal in the seasonal cycle of tropospheric temperature has emerged from the background noise of natural variability. Satellite data and the anthropogenic “fingerprint” predicted by climate models show common large-scale changes in geographical patterns of seasonal cycle amplitude. These common features include increases in amplitude at mid-latitudes in both hemispheres, amplitude decreases at high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere, and small changes in the tropics. Simple physical mechanisms explain these features. The model fingerprint of seasonal cycle changes is identifiable with high statistical confidence in five out of six satellite temperature datasets. Our results suggest that attribution studies with the changing seasonal cycle provide powerful evidence for a significant human effect on Earth’s climate.Scientists studying the troposphere – the lowest level of the atmosphere – have found “powerful evidence” that climate change is altering seasonal temperatures.the findings show the “substantial human influence on Earth’s climate, affecting not only global averages, but also local and seasonal changes”, another scientist says.The results show that only simulations that include the impact of human-caused climate change could correctly predict the patterns of seasonal temperature change recorded by the satellites. The researchers say:“The real-world observations are much closer to model simulations that include increases in greenhouse gas concentrations, allowing us to attribute the observational record to human influence using formal climate detection and attribution techniques.”The results indicate that humans are having a “substantial influence” on the temperatures in the troposphere, says Dr William Randel, a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, who was not involved in the research. In an accompanying perspectives article, he writes:“[The] findings provide further markers of a substantial human influence on Earth’s climate, affecting not only global averages, but also local and seasonal changes.”Conclusion.Our results suggest that attribution studies with the seasonal cycle of tropospheric temperature provide powerful and novel evidence for a statistically significant human effect on Earth’s climate. We hope that this finding will stimulate more detailed exploration of the seasonal signals caused by anthropogenic forcing.‘Powerful evidence’ of global warming’s effect on seasons found in troposphere | Carbon BriefHuman influence on the seasonal cycle of tropospheric temperatureSTORMS/HURRICANES/CYCLONES AND TORNADOES“Hurricanes, tropical cyclones and typhoons aren’t getting more frequent, either: but they are getting stronger as they’re super-charged by warming oceans. They are also intensifying faster and getting bigger, slower, and with a lot more rain associated with them. It’s estimated that nearly 40% of the rain that fell during Hurricane Harvey would not have fallen if the exact same storm had occurred a hundred years ago.”Katharine Hayhoe's answer to What effects of climate change are already apparent today?Powerful hurricanes strengthen faster now than 30 years agoHurricanes that intensify rapidly—a characteristic of almost all powerful hurricanes—do so more strongly and quickly now than they did 30 years ago, according to a study published recently in Geophysical Research Letters, a journal of the American Geophysical Union.Powerful hurricanes strengthen faster now than 30 years agoNorthwestern Pacific typhoon intensity controlled by changes in ocean temperaturesNorthwestern Pacific typhoon intensity controlled by changes in ocean temperaturesWith Tropical Storm Ophelia’s transition to Hurricane Ophelia on Wednesday, 2017 became the first year in more than a century — and only the fourth on record — in which 10 Atlantic storms in a row reached hurricane strength.10 Hurricanes in 10 Weeks: With Ophelia, a 124-Year-Old Record is Matchedhttps://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/12/28/16795490/natural-disasters-2017-hurricanes-wildfires-heat-climate-change-cost-deathsMore tornadoes in the most extreme U.S. tornado outbreakshttp://science.sciencemag.org/content/354/6318/1419This, combined with rising sea levels, has also led to larger storm surges and the costs of the damage that goes with them. As Grinsted et al. (2013)concluded,"we have probably crossed the threshold where Katrina magnitude hurricane surges are more likely caused by global warming than not."Global warming also adds moisture to the atmosphere, with the increase in precipitation also adding to the flooding associated with these storms, and the damages they cause. The bottom line is that many types of extreme weather are being intensified by human-caused global warming, and that will continue in the future. And there is evidence that climate change is adding to the costs of extreme weather damage.Category 3+ Hurricanes on the Rise in the AtlanticWarmer water fuels hurricanes, and not surprisingly, the average number of major hurricanes — those Category 3 or higher — has increased in the Atlantic basin since the 1970s. Globally, climate models project that there will likely be an increase in the wind speed and rainfall intensity of the strongest hurricanes (aka tropical cyclones), even though their frequency may remain unchanged or even decrease by the end of this century. However, the extent of these effects from climate change will vary by regionCategory 3+ Hurricanes on the Rise in the AtlanticThe 2017 North Atlantic hurricane season had 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and six major hurricanes. This is well above the 1981-2010 average of 12.1 named storms, 6.4 hurricanes, and 2.7 major hurricanes.https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/tornadoes/201013Climate scientist Katharine Hayhoe explains:The ferocious “frankenstorm” known as Sandy that ripped through greater New York City five years ago remains one for the record books. Like this year’s hurricane season, it racked up tens of billions of dollars in economic damages.Superstorm Sandy had another close, yet underappreciated, similarity to this year’s hurricanes: less affluent groups of people suffered more, both in the initial damage and recovery.An analysis by a team I led at Stony Brook University shows that Sandy’s destructive path across Long Island, from Brooklyn to the Hamptons, was not as even-handed as media coverage often made it seem, both in its initial impact and people’s recovery.The storm season of 2017 has already left behind an even more dramatic version of this story: Following Hurricane Harvey, Houston quickly switched water and electricity back on and emptied most emergency shelters. Meanwhile, several weeks after Hurricane Maria hit Puerto Rico, much of the island is still in “survival mode.” Both hurricane seasons expose the close ties between severe weather events and social inequality.https://theconversation.com/storms-hit-poorer-people-harder-from-superstorm-sandy-to-hurricane-maria-87658?utm_content=buffercd52b&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=bufferHuman influence on tropical cyclone intensityhttps://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes-figures/https://www8.gsb.columbia.edu/socialenterprise/sites/socialenterprise/files/Adam%20Sobel_Research1.pdf“As the 21st century proceeds, we expect greenhouse gas warming to further outpace aerosol cooling and PI increases to exceed those observed to date. TC intensities at any given fixed location should increase accordingly, on average; simulations suggest trends on the order of 1ms–1 decade–1 at the high end. If poleward shifts continue, these increases will be manifest in increases in activity at the poleward margins of TC basins, as well as in the occurrence of more intense storms (if perhaps fewer storms overall) in the historical cores of the basins.”https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/wp-content/uploads/pix/user_images/tk/global_warm_hurr/Adjust_TS_Count.pngClimate change is making storms like Florence worseRecent Scientific Advancements Show New Connections Between Climate Change and HurricanesHurricane Florence’s Unusual Extremes Worsened by Climate ChangeHow Climate Change Is Creating A New Breed Of HurricaneHurricane Lane Brings Hawaii a Warning About Future Storm Risk__________________________________________________________Hurricanes are a subset of tropical cyclones and are typically called typhoons in Asia. We have already seen clear statistical evidence of greater frequency and severity of typhoons hitting land in Asia over the past 40 years.The paper this is from was co-authored by Wei Mei & Shang-Ping Xie from the Scripps Institute of Oceanograpy and published in Nature Geoscience. As they say in the abstract:over the past 37 years, typhoons that strike East and Southeast Asia have intensified by 12–15%, with the proportion of storms of categories 4 and 5 having doubled or even tripled.Confounding factors in the Atlantic including shear mitigated for warmer oceans until the 2017 season, when seven records for hurricane activity and severity were broken. The accumulated cyclone energy was 50% above the level required for the season to be considered extremely active.Three studies using three different methodologies confirmed that Hurricane Harvey was worsened by global warming.Harvey could not have produced so much rain without human‐induced climate change.Hurricane Harvey links to Ocean Heat Content and Climate Change Adaptationwe conclude that global warming made the precipitation about 15% (8%–19%) more intense, or equivalently made such an event three (1.5–5) times more likely.http://iopscience.iop.org/articl...precipitation accumulations in these areas were likely increased by at least 18.8% (best estimate of 37.7%), which is larger than the 6–7% associated with an attributable warming of 1°C in the Gulf of Mexico and Clausius‐Clapeyron scaling.Attributable Human‐Induced Changes in the Likelihood and Magnitude of the Observed Extreme Precipitation during Hurricane HarveyHarvey wasn’t a particularly intense hurricane by either the common Saffir-Simpson Scale or the slightly more accurate Accumulated Cyclonic Energy Scale (ACE). It’s rainfall due to first increased water vapor due to warmer water and it’s stalling over Houston due to a jetstream oscillation associated with global warming caused the problem. As a note, this is part of why Hurricane Florence is so concerning; it’s predicted to stall over the Carolinas, unleashing historically unprecedented floods.Similarly, Sandy wasn’t a particularly strong hurricane when it hit New York and area. It was, however, very wide and very slow moving. That contributed to storm surge, flooding, a greater area of damage and more time for the winds to do damage. I’ve posited a notional improved hurricane severity scale as a thought exercise and it more correctly asserts the damaging aspect of Sandy, but fails to capture Harvey’s impact.Michael Barnard's answer to Has the intensity of this year’s hurricane season been directly correlated to climate change?_______________________________________________________________________Powerful hurricanes strengthen faster now than 30 years agoHurricanes that intensify rapidly—a characteristic of almost all powerful hurricanes—do so more strongly and quickly now than they did 30 years ago, according to a study published recently in Geophysical Research Letters, a journal of the American Geophysical Union.https://phys.org/news/2018-05-powerful-hurricanes-faster-years.html#jCpHEAT WAVESIntense, prolonged heatwaves, such as the record-breaking ones we’ve seen around the world in recent years, will become stronger and more frequent. The 2003 European heatwave, responsible for over 70,000 deaths as well as extensive wildfires and flooding from melting glaciers, was one of the first events for which the impact of human-induced climate change on the event could be formally qualified. Scientists determined that,“human influence at least doubled the risk” of this event.https://qr.ae/TUtx6PAs global surface temperatures have increased, heatwaves are becoming more frequent. Coumou, Robinson, and Rahmstorf 2013 found that record-breaking monthly temperature records are already occurring five times more often than they would in the absence of human-caused global warming. This means that there is an 80% chance that any monthly heat record today is due to human-caused global warming.https://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-012-0668-1https://www.skepticalscience.com/heatwaves-past-global-warming-climate-change-intermediate.htmThe link between GW and heatwaves confirmed:Are the heatwaves caused by climate change?In France, 14,802 heat-related deaths (mostly among the elderly) occurred during the heat wave, according to the French National Institute of Health2003 European heat wave - WikipediaEstimated 70 Deaths Linked To Canada's Heat WaveDeaths rose 650 above average during UK heatwave – with older people most at riskUK heatwave turns KILLER: 1,000 more people die this summer than average as temps soar'Unprecedented' Japan heatwave kills 65 people in a weekWe're Going to Die in Record Numbers as Heatwaves Bake The World, First Global Study ShowsFOREST FIRES / WILD FIRES:“Wildfire isn’t becoming more frequent, but in fire-prone areas such as western Canada and the U.S., fires are burning greater and greater areas due to the increasing frequency of hot, dry conditions. Since the mid-1980s, it’s estimated that human-induced climate change has nearly doubled the area burned across the western U.S. compared to what would have occurred naturally.”Katharine Hayhoe's answer to What effects of climate change are already apparent today?Source: Fourth National Climate Assessment: Chapter 25: SouthwestLets ask the experts.The US Forest Service:Here in our National Forests and Grasslands, these shifts include:More frequent wildfires that burn larger areasMore severe problems with insects, pests, and diseases threatening trees and cropsSnowpack decline in mountainous regions due to decreased snowfall and shorter wintersPlant and animal ranges shifting northward to accommodate warmer temperaturesThreatened watersheds due to more frequent water shortages, increased pest and fire severity, and shifts in ecosystem health"For all ecoregions combined, the number of large fires increased at a rate of seven fires per year, while total fire area increased at a rate of 355 km2 per year. Continuing changes in climate, invasive species, and consequences of past fire management, added to the impacts of larger, more frequent fires, will drive further disruptions to fire regimes of the western U.S. and other fire-prone regions of the world."Climate Change | US Forest ServiceWhat are the Impacts?http://www.climatecentral.org/ga...http://wxshift.com/climate-chang...2018 is one of the worst years for Colorado's wildfires, five blazes make top 20The Forest Service and Climate Change:WHAT DOES THE PEER REVIEWED SCIENCE SAY ON AGW AND WILD FIRES?Large wildfire trends in the western United States, 1984–2011GRLDOI: 10.1002/2014GL059576https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wi...And"We show that fire weather seasons have lengthened across 29.6 million km2 (25.3%) of the Earth’s vegetated surface, resulting in an 18.7% increase in global mean fire weather season length. We also show a doubling (108.1% increase) of global burnable area affected by long fire weather seasons (>1.0 σ above the historical mean) and an increased global frequency of long fire weather seasons across 62.4 million km2 (53.4%) during the second half of the study period."Climate-induced variations in global wildfire danger from 1979 to 2013NATUREdoi:10.1038/ncomms8537https://www.nature.com/articles/..."Anthropogenic increases in temperature and vapor pressure deficit significantly enhanced fuel aridity across western US forests over the past several decades and, during 2000–2015, contributed to 75% more forested area experiencing high (>1 σ) fire-season fuel aridity and an average of nine additional days per year of high fire potential.Anthropogenic climate change accounted for ∼55% of observed increases in fuel aridity from 1979 to 2015 across western US forests, highlighting both anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variability as important contributors to increased wildfire potential in recent decades.We estimate that human-caused climate change contributed to an additional 4.2 million ha of forest fire area during 1984–2015, nearly doubling the forest fire area expected in its absence.Natural climate variability will continue to alternate between modulating and compounding anthropogenic increases in fuel aridity, but anthropogenic climate change has emerged as a driver of increased forest fire activity and should continue to do so while fuels are not limiting."Abatzoglou and Williams 2016 - Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forestsPNASdoi: 10.1073/pnas.1607171113"http://www.pnas.org/content/113/...“Forest fires in the western United States have been increasing in size (1) and possibly severity (2) for several decades. The increase in fire has prompted multiple investigations into both the causes (3, 4) and consequences of this shift for communities, ecosystems, and climate (5). Climate changes and human activities have both contributed to the observed changes in fire...The data do suggest however that even modest increases in temperature and drought (relative to those being projected for the 21st century) are able to perturb the level of biomass burning as much as large-scale industrialized human impacts on fire.More dramatic increases in temperature or drought are likely to produce a response in fire regimes that are beyond those observed during the past 3,000 y.http://science.sciencemag.org/co...https://waa.ai/alEc"There is very well documented scientific evidence that climate change has been increasing the length of the fire season, the size of the area burned each year and the number of wildfires.Greenhouse gas emissions, via the greenhouse effect, are causing the global temperature to increase and the climate to change. This enhances the likelihood of wildfires.Why?Because warmer temperatures increase evaporation, which means the atmosphere draws more moisture from soils, making the land drier.A warmer climate also leads to earlier snowmelt, which causes soils to be drier for longer. And dry soils become more susceptible to fire."The areas where wildfires are taking place are always areas that [have become] drier and hotter, and where spring has come earlier," said Funk.Drier conditions and higher temperatures increase not only the likelihood of a wildfire to occur, but also the duration and the severity of the wildfire. Wildfires are typically either started accidentally by humans - such as a burning cigarette carelessly tossed out of a window - or by natural causes like lightning.http://www.dw.com/en/how-climate...Here's how to respond to those misleading posts claiming our recent fires are all about tree huggers preventing logging and a supposed fuel build up via past fire suppression.Here is the simple truth from the experts, The California Professional Firefighters and the US Forest Service and the best peer reviewed science:Most fires appeared outside the forestsand ,"For those few devastating fires that were near forests, all of those forests around the communities destroyed had the kind of suggested thinning and fuel treatments misinformed commentators claim didn't exist".All those denier arguments about logging and fuel is nonsense.It is more than discouraging when someone claims our wildfires are all about forests, dead trees, lack of logging, or unnatural fuel build up via past fire suppression. Such claims are a disservice to the families who have lost so much and hamper our efforts to solve the problem.https://www.facebook.com/californiachaparral/photos/pb.114672246017.-2207520000.1542827645./10156935032936018/?type=3&theater1. Most of California's most devastating fires were far from any forest (see map above).2. For those few devastating fires that were near forests, all of those forests around the communities destroyed had the kind of suggested thinning and fuel treatments misinformed commentators claim didn't exist.3. Much of the area around Paradise that burned in the Camp Fire had burned 10 years ago, had been salvage logged, and was composed of habitats other than forest (e.g. post fire shrublands). The wind-driven ember rain that destroyed the town came primarily from open grassland/post fire/mixed woodland environments northeast of the town. A large percentage of the trees within the devastated town did not burn. See the fire progression map here and match it with the current view on Google Earth:https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/map/6250/4/907914. Climate change is drying the state. Dryer conditions lead to a more flammable landscape. We may see more of the kind of winds that powered the Camp Fire into Paradise. More fires will dramatically alter the kinds of habitats we are used to seeing. Non-native weed filled landscapes that dominate places like Riverside County will likely become more common. More on this issue here:Loss of chaparralCalifornia Professional Firefighters:"The president’s assertion that California’s forest management policies are to blame for catastrophic wildfire is dangerously wrong," California Professional Firefighters President Brian K. Rice said in a statement on Saturday."Wildfires are sparked and spread not only in forested areas but in populated areas and open fields fueled by parched vegetation, high winds, low humidity and geography," he continued in the statement. "Moreover, nearly 60 percent of California forests are under federal management, and another two-thirds under private control. It is the federal government that has chosen to divert resources away from forest management, not California.https://abcnews.go.com/US/trump-threatens-pull-federal-funding-california-wildfires-gross/story?id=59102371https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/climate-change-make-wildfires-spread-factor/story?id=5693FLOODS AND SEA LEVEL RISE:http://www.climatecentral.org/ga...NOAA: Sea level has been rising over the past century, and the rate has increased in recent decades. In 2016, global sea level was 3.2 inches (82 mm) above the 1993 average—the highest annual average in the satellite record (1993-present).There was a huge climate report out just now from the USA:The report was peer reviewed by the National Academy of Sciences.You know, the academy founded by Abraham Lincoln.They have 200 Nobel Prize winners among their members.Global mean sea level (GMSL) has risen by about 7–8 inches (about 16–21 cm) since 1900, with about 3 of those inches (about 7 cm) occurring since 1993 (very high confidence). Human-caused climate change has made a substantial contribution to GMSL rise since 1900 (high confidence).http://www.climatecentral.org/gallery/graphics/natural-human-caused-coastal-flood-days-in-the-us1The economic damage from coastal flooding in Europe could reach almost €1 trillion per year by 2100 without new investment in adaptation to climate change, a new study finds.Coastal flooding in Europe ‘could cost up to €1 trillion per year’ by 2100 | Carbon BriefTHE FARMERSSomeone please tell the farmers of the world more C02 is "good for us" while they have their harvest hit by droughts or flooded by billions of tons of water because of AGW. And maybe those same people can send “thoughs and prayers” while we wait for the humanitarian and atheist help organizations to arrive with actual help?Farmers needs stability and predictability, not a rapidly warming and changing world.Rising carbon levels threaten diets of hundreds of millions of poorRising carbon emissions could make vital food crops from wheat to rice less nutritious and endanger the health of hundreds of millions of the world's poorestCertain staple crops grown in open fields with elevated carbon dioxide levels had up to 17 percent lower levels of protein, iron and zinc compared to those grown amid less of the gas, according to a study in the journal Nature Climate Change.Crop failure and bankruptcy threaten farmers as drought grips Europehttps://www.theguardian.com/envi...Another study published in Nature Climate Change last week concluded that higher temperatures will cause wheat production to decline. Just a 1°C rise in global temperature will decrease wheat yields by about 5% (approximately 35 million tons).Climate change will make rice less nutritious, putting millions of the world's poor at riskClimate change is bad news for several of our staple crops. For example, a 2012 paper found that higher temperatures are detrimental to French corn yields. While French corn production has increased steadily in recent decades due to a combination of technological improvements and CO2 fertilization (the former far more than the latter), yields have leveled off in recent years, and were particularly low when struck by heat waves.CO2: Friend or Foe to Agriculture? - FactCheck.org_____________________________________________________________________In sub-Saharan Africa, a much higher risk of droughts will lead to insufficient access to drinking and irrigation water, and reduced agricultural productivity.Vietnamese farmers are migrating en masse to escape climate changeThousands of kilometres of dykes, many over four metres high, now criss-cross the delta. They were built principally to protect people and crops from flooding, but those same dykes have fundamentally altered the ecosystem. The poor and the landless can no longer find fish to eat and sell, and the dykes prevent free nutrients being carried onto paddies by the flood.All this demonstrates that climate change threatens to exacerbate the existing trends of economic migration. One large scale study of migration in deltas has found that climate factors such as extreme floods, cyclones, erosion, and land degradation play a role in making natural resource-based livelihoods more tenuous, further encouraging inhabitants to migrate.Vietnamese farmers are migrating en masse to escape climate changeDroughts, heatwaves and floods: How to tell when climate change is to blameDroughts, heatwaves and floods: How to tell when climate change is to blameSEA LEVEL RISEIt’s already happening.Sea level rise already causing billions in home value to disappearSea level rise already costs billions in lower home pricesMIAMI:Miami and Miami Beach already struggle with serious flooding related to sea-level rise — even when there is no rain.The ground under the cities of South Florida is largely porous limestone, which means water will eventually rise up through it.The cities are taking flood-control measures like installing pumps, raising roads, and restoring wetlands.Coastal cities around the world face similar problems.Miami is racing against time to keep up with sea-level riseThis Miami street could be the blueprint for how the city handles sea level riseThis Miami street could be the blueprint for how the city handles sea level riseThe risk of sea level rise is chipping away at Miami home values, new research showsUS coastal property prices have dropped 7% and insurance rates are rising.Here’s a good resource: When Rising Seas Hit Home: Hard Choices Ahead for Hundreds of US Coastal Communities (2017)Katharine Hayhoe's answer to At what level of influence does climate change have on the US coastline? Would this change disrupt ocean side real-estate?NEW ORLEANSThe current New Orleans dike and levee system is about 7 meters (23 feet) high on the Mississippi River side, and about 5.5 meters (17.5 feet) high along Lake Pontchartrain. The system, which failed spectacularly during Hurricane Katrina in 2005, has been patched up, but still needs some work (New Orleans under water: 12 years after Katrina, officials can't get it right). So any work done to prepare for sea level change plus geological subsidence will have to include shoring up the current levee system so that the added levee will be on a solid foundation.(Source: By Alexdi at English Wikipedia, CC BY-SA 3.0, File:New Orleans Elevations.jpg)According to studies presented by Climate Central, the current worst-case assessment (including recent concerns about Antarctic ice sheet instability) calls for about 2.5 meters (about 8 feet) of sea-level rise by the end of this century. In addition, New Orleans is sinking at a rate of about 2 inches (5 cm) annually - this will produce an additional 4 meters (13 feet) of sea level change (or at least effective sea level change) to accommodate. So if New Orleans keeps sinking at its current rate and sea level rises the maximum amount projected, New Orleans will have to build another 20 feet (6.5 meters) of dikes if they’re going to remain dry.THE NETHERLANDS:So to accommodate both sea level rise and subsidence the Army Corps of Engineers (or whatever company has bought out the privatized Army Corps of Engineers in the next few decades) will have to just about double the height of the existing levee system. Of course, the Dutch have been doing this for awhile (The Dutch Have Solutions to Rising Seas. The World Is Watching). I have no doubt that if the Dutch are consulted (and listened to) that New Orleans will remain safe for the next century or so.Andrew Karam's answer to Will New Orleans survive rising ocean levels into the next century?FUTURE SEA LEVEL RISELatest research:The rate of global sea level rise has been accelerating in recent decades, rather than increasing steadily, according to a new study based on 25 years of NASA and European satellite data. The new research suggests he world’s oceans will be on average at least 60 cm (23.6 inches)higher by the end of the century.Satellite observations show sea levels rising, and climate change is accelerating itNew study finds sea level rise accelerating – Climate Change: Vital Signs of the PlanetSea level rise is happening now, and the rate at which it is rising is increasing every year, according to a study released Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.Researchers, led by University of Colorado-Boulder professor of aerospace engineering sciences Steve Nerem, used satellite data dating to 1993 to observe the levels of the world's oceans.Using satellite data rather than tide-gauge data that is normally used to measure sea levels allows for more precise estimates of global sea level, since it provides measurements of the open ocean.- Brandon Miller, CNN, Feb 12, 2017https://www.theguardian.com/envi...http://edition.cnn.com/2018/02/1...http://www.pnas.org/content/earl...Antarctic Modeling Pushes Up Sea-Level Rise ProjectionsTHE NEW ESTIMATE OF 60 CM IS WITHIN THE RANGE OF PREDICTIONS FROM THE 2 MAIN CLIMATE REPORTS:Relative to the year 2000, GMSL is very likely to rise by 0.3–0.6 feet (9–18 cm) by 2030, 0.5–1.2 feet (15–38 cm) by 2050, and 1.0–4.3 feet (30–130 cm) by 2100 (very high confidencehttps://science2017.globalchange...IPCC:For high emissions IPCC now predicts a global rise by 52-98 cm by the year 2100, which would threaten the survival of coastal cities and entire island nations.Sea level in the 5th IPCC reportTHE PRICE OF GLOBAL WARMING IS GOING UP:It’s official: 2017 was the costliest year on record for natural disasters in the United States, with a price tag of at least $306 billion.It's also not surprising that hurricanes would now be doing more damage, because research has shown that the most intense hurricanes are already occurring more often as a result of human-caused global warming.http://www.climatecentral.org/gallery/graphics/number-cost-of-weather-disasters-is-increasing-in-the-us?utm_content=bufferf841e&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=bufferReinsurance company Munich Re provides data about the number of annual disasters, and the frequency of these events is indeed rising:"For thunderstorm-related losses the analysis reveals increasing volatility and a significant long-term upward trend in the normalized figures over the last 40 years. These figures have been adjusted to account for factors such as increasing values, population growth and inflation ... In all likelihood, we have to regard this finding as an initial climate-change footprint in our US loss data from the last four decades.""Nowhere in the world is the rising number of natural catastrophes more evident than in North America. The study shows a nearly quintupled number of weather-related loss events in North America for the past three decades, compared with an increase factor of 4 in Asia, 2.5 in Africa, 2 in Europe and 1.5 in South America. Anthropogenic climate change is believed to contribute to this trend, though it influences various perils in different ways."