Household Data Survey: Fill & Download for Free

Most probably, that national covers the whole country data, and the other is only state based data.

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The following reasons have contributed to a sudden rise in unemployment data from 2.1% to 6.1% which is being reported as “45 years high”.1. New methodology / New sampling criteriaTill 2012, jobs data was based on Employment Unemployment Survey (EUS) which was conducted once every 5 yearsAfter 2016, jobs data are now based on Periodic Labor Force Survey (PLFS) which measures quarterly changes in labor market [1]In EUS 2011-12, households for survey were selected based on levels of livelihood (rural) and expenditure (urban)Source: Financial ExpressIn PLFS 2017-18, households for survey were selected based on the levels of educationSource: Financial Express2. Issues with the new sampling techniqueThere are two issues with this sampling(a) Sample selection has impacted the outcomeIn statistics, samples need to be random. It is discouraged to select a sample based on a criterion that itself affects the behavior that one is trying to explainTo illustrate through a crude analogy –Let’s consider a voter survey for possible election resultsFor this survey, the surveyors select “households with number of family members that support AAP” with 0, 1, 2+ members as 25%, 50% and 25% weightageThis would ensure that sample of households where no one supports AAP (0 option) gets only 25% representation, whereas supporters (1 or 2+) get 75% weightageThis survey would predict good support for AAP, but it may not be the ground reality because of the inherent problem with sample selection criteria that directly impact the outcomeSimilarly, Education level directly affects labor market participation hence the outcome of survey is expected to be skewed [2](b) Sample is not representative of ground realities of populationIn India, number of households where NO ONE in the family has attained secondary level education is 75% (for rural) and 46% (for urban)Source: Financial ExpressHowever, in NSSO survey sample, only 25% of selected households represent low educationSource: Financial ExpressEffectively, people with lower levels of education who comprise a much larger section of actual workforce (66%) and also take up most of the jobs in the country have been grossly under-represented (25%) in the survey sample3. Impact of the new sampling techniqueIn India, Joblessness rises with education level [3]World Economic Forum shows much higher unemployment for Graduates and Post Graduates than for people with no primary educationSource: World Economic ForumThe data from 2011 census in India also shows that Unemployment numbers are higher for people with higher education (15%) compared to those with lower education (8%)Source: The HinduThis is primarily because in India, 90% of the jobs are in unorganized sector [4] like construction, daily wage workers, taxi drivers, small time retailers, self-employed professionals, casual contract workers etc.Less educated section of the workforce is more likely to take up such jobs. Consequently, the higher the education level attained, the more people are unemployedEither NSSO should not have used education level as the criterion for sample (because education level directly impacts the outcome of unemployment data)Or the sample sizes should have been inline with the population dataSince NSSO survey includes more households with higher education, unemployment data is showing a sudden jump4. Other prominent inaccuracies in the dataThe report indicates that in the last six years, unemployment suddenly increased from 2.1% to 6.1% (a “45 years high”)However, the report also indicates that in the last six years, India’s population has decreased by 1.3% and is now at just a little over 1 billion. Urbanization has also decreased by 5.8%Both these are incorrect because in reality, both the population and urbanization have been constantly increasing. Per census, India’s population is estimated at 1.3 billion (not 1.074 billion)These counter intuitive outcomes indicate to some structural fault with method / data which is yielding unreliable outcomesSource: Financial Express5. Is Unemployment really at 45 year high?In India, jobs data is published by multiple agencies / sources including the below [5] -NSSO survey data (once every 5 years)Labor Bureau ReportsCMIE (Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy), a non-govt agency that publishes monthly dataUnited Nations ILO (International Labor Organization) ReportEPFO publishes monthly data on subscriber additionsCII (Confederation of Indian Industry) data from IndustryOf the above sources, CII estimates that MSME industries have created 14 million jobs every year in last four years [6]As estimated by United Nation’s ILO, unemployment in India has not seen any major increase from 2016 to 2019 and has stayed constant at 3.5% level [7]The unemployment rate in the country will stand at 3.5 per cent in 2018 and 2019 – the same level of unemployment as seen in 2017 and 2016, the ILO’s ‘World Employment and Social Outlook: Trends 2018’report saidDifferent agencies use different methods and come up with different data points on unemployment. PLFS has been used for the first time for unemployment data and it is unfair to compare its outcome (6.1%) with any other past dataEven if one still persists in comparing apples to oranges, then as per the last census in 2011 – unemployment at every single parameter varied from 7% up to 15%. Overall unemployment was as high as 9.6%Source: The HinduIf unemployment was 9.6% in 2011, can it be reasonably claimed that 6.1% unemployment in 2018 is at 45 years high?Summary:Yes, India needs a relentless focus on job creation. Almost 5 million Indians are entering work force every year and India needs to constantly create new jobs [8]Not just any jobs, India needs to create high quality and higher paying jobs in the formal organized sector which is where the higher educated workforce can make bigger contribution to the economyIndia also needs to increase education attainment levels. Forbes indicates that even when millions of high skilled jobs are created in India, many are not finding enough skilled workers [9]6.1% unemployment in India is not an earth-shattering number. A look at currently world’s top 15 economies indicates that unemployment in France, Italy, Brazil and Spain is at 8%, 10%, 12% and 14% - these are high but not enough to start ringing alarm bellsSource: Trading EconomicsEven at 6.1%, unemployment in India is NOT at “45 years high”– that’s an exaggeration without any basis in facts or dataFootnotes[1] The jobs data mystery: Understanding India's big crisis in a fraught poll season[2] It’s now official: Joblessness rises with education level | India News - Times of India[3] It’s now official: Joblessness rises with education level | India News - Times of India[4] Informal jobs are the new norm, not the exception[5] Unemployment in India - Wikipedia[6] MSME firms created up to 14.9 million new jobs per annum in four years: CII survey[7] More joblessness: ILO sees India's unemployment rate rising to 3.5% in 2018[8] Do 12 mn Indians join workforce annually? Data peg number at less than half[9] India Is Creating Millions Of High Skilled Jobs, But Its Education System Isn't Keeping Up