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Before predicting the future, I feel I should recap the past.The past 50+ years have been a time of reform and counter-reform within mathematics education. The post-sputnik 1960s brought us "New Math," which was designed to shape the next generation of mathematicians and therefore emphasized abstract mathematics (e.g., working in bases other than base 10).Given how weird the “New Math” was for teachers and parents, there was a backlash in the 70s and 80s, and we went “back to the basics." Instruction again focused on more traditional mathematics skills, with teachers presenting procedures, and students practicing and occasionally applying those procedures.However, due to emerging research suggesting that students learn better when actively making sense of ideas, along with evidence that students could rarely apply the procedures they had learned in the 70s and 80s, the National Council of Teachers of Mathematics (NCTM) published a series of Standards (1989, 1991, 2000) to increase the role of problem solving and sense-making in math classrooms. NCTM also pushed to broaden the math curriculum to go well beyond computation, with the inclusion of probably, statistics, and algebraic reasoning throughout the K-12 curriculum.However, until the Common Core, each state continued to write their own math standards and choose or design their own assessments. For those states that have adopted it, Common Core now offers a unified set of standards that are similar in many ways to the NCTM Standards. The Common Core focuses primarily on what math should be taught, as opposed to how (although those two things cannot be separated as neatly as some might think – e.g., if “mathematical reasoning” is to be learned, then instruction must leave ample room for students to make sense of math instead of simply practicing given procedures). The Common Core is trying to alleviate the “mile wide – inch deep” problem the U.S. math curriculum has had, and so they are more specific than NCTM in terms of assigning topics to grades. According to the Common Core Website, 45 states were on board in 2013, and this dropped to 42 in 2015.As for the future of math education, it is difficult to predict whether the Common Core will be a de facto U.S. curriculum in 10 years, or if the number of states on board will dwindle further. If Common Core is rejected sooner rather than later, it might be partially due to flat or dwindling NAEP scores (e.g., see https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/answer-sheet/wp/2015/11/04/what-the-drop-in-naep-math-scores-tells-us-about-common-core-and-naep/). If Common Core were adopted throughout the U.S., we could see more coherent curriculum, testing, and research, but there are certainly differences of opinions as to whether diminished state autonomy is a good thing.From my perspective, a common curriculum can help ensure that low-resourced states and their students are not short-changed due to lack of human resources to develop and promote solid curricular standards. Good standards and assessments are difficult to develop, and so it makes sense to avoid having every state and district reinventing the wheel.Alongside curricular changes, the issue of standardized testing has heated up in the past few years, and although testing and accountability are likely here to stay, there is currently some softening, with changes to Federal law (NCLB) and more multi-faceted teacher evaluation programs than some accountability advocates initially envisioned. Still, it remains a concern for many that private companies design our high-stakes tests (including K-12 tests and the ACT/SAT) and thereby shape the U.S. curriculum. Perhaps in the next decade or more, there will be a movement to following other countries in having a governing body that is charged with identifying and assessing the curriculum that we as a nation value (as, strangely enough, the National Center for Education Statistics currently does with no-stakes U.S. tests).In terms of math instruction, it feels that we are in an era of “middle ground” among the various reforms of the past decades. For example, in mathematics education, the “Math Wars” have calmed down, and there is clear agreement that students need both procedural and problem solving skills. I suspect this “middle ground” era will continue over the next decade.In my more optimistic moments, I suspect that some areas of education research will accelerate in the next 10+ years through the increased availability of education data (e.g., state longitudinal data systems; big data from digital learning/research environments) and a more concerted effort to use those data in smart ways. This extent to which my optimsim is warranted will largely depend on Federal and state investments in education research over the next decade.

Thanks for asking.I had a great job for about seven years. It started out great and I was an entry-level employee on the worst shift possible. My work and skill were recognized with promotions and raises, even a transfer to a project which was the gateway to a position in regional management, a job that would take me out of the retail world of nights, weekends, and holidays with benefits that would have set up a nice career and life for my family.At the end of the project, however, the numbers they ran to measure our success were analyzed and found lacking. After a year of work, my upward trajectory stalled and I was forced to relocate back to the store where I was hired. I took a job as an assistant branch manager in an area of operations I didn’t exactly enjoy or perform well in. On top of that, the store had turned over most positions and I knew very few people or their abilities. My boss was someone who took my failure on the big project as a sign I wasn’t as big a deal as people told him and so began treating me like shit.I was depressed about it, unhappy with my job, but motivated to stay and work at it because my wife had become pregnant. But every month, it just got worse. I hated waking up on work days. Every few weeks it seems by “regular schedule” would change. We went to some ridiculous 10-hour days that were broken into first and second shifts. I put in for jobs at the regional office that I knew I could do well, but I was never interviewed. Eventually, the regional office laid off most of its staff sending a message that office locations would be suffering the same “belt-tightening”.Instead of getting laid off, my manager abruptly quit which saved my job, but somehow meant that I was now branch manager until they found a replacement. I didn’t want the job permanently because it meant I would eventually be forced to move wherever the company needed me to go.So, I was making decent net take-home pay for a miserable and worsening work experience, poor health and pension benefits, working in a store that was not profitable enough to qualify for the company’s profit share program. Plus, as branch manager, I was subject to the “three strikes” rule which meant if I didn’t meet core costs or sales numbers three months in a row, I would be fired on the spot.It got to the point all the employees either didn’t like me or trust me. And it was a fair assessment. I wasn’t fair or impartial or even competent. It was a rough pregnancy at home and I wasn’t prepared for the temp job I’d been assigned. If I had the savings tied up or could count on unemployment upon quitting, I would have left, but we lived paycheck to paycheck and I was nothing more than a shell of a human being coming to work, speaking in business terminology, hemorrhaging business because morale in the store was an open wound.They found a replacement for me in two months, a guy who had been Manager of the Year for the company and Regional Sales Champion several years running. He had successfully accomplished what I had tried to do by moving away and he came to the store with a lot of paperwork and briefings on the store’s problems, including me.So, in our first meeting, he sat me down and told me his plan.“In order to turn this around, I need you to go. I’ve talked to everyone here and the common theme is that you were once really amazing, but you hate this business and this job. I can’t have that. And I don’t see you turning this around. Can you convince me that you even want to try?”Thinking I was about to be fired on the spot, I shrugged and replied, “I won’t try.”“I am going to give you six weeks to wrap up projects, train me up on the store’s issues, and hand me off to our customers. I will support you and give you whatever you need to make the transition happen. But you understand that my goal is to restore the morale and productivity of this location and the best way I can accomplish that is by terminating you. You’ll have time to find new work and if you need time to interview, I want you to know that I am not just looking at your last six months but your entire time with the company and all the contributions you’ve made. You have some champions in this company who don’t want to see you go, but know it’s probably time.”“If I can’t find a job in six weeks…?”“The company won’t challenge any unemployment claim you make. You have my word. If you want a reference, I’ve seen your growth and profit numbers that, taken on average are quite strong and a personnel record that I would be proud of, so that’s what I’ll say to anyone who calls. But you need to go. If we don’t agree on a date right now, it will be today and all you’ll get is your PTO.”He let me think about it for a moment.“You’re burned out. Your life at home, here…you’re a good person and a solid worker. The place beat you down, but don’t let it break you. Shine somewhere you can be happy.”I felt a sense of relief, like the guy had unlocked my chains and gave me a chance to reinvent myself. We agreed on a date and shook hands.The next six weeks allowed me to sleep at night. The hammer had fallen, the shoe dropped. I could move on with the next stage of my life. The new manager did not treat me with anything less than respect and good humor and I regret not being able to work longer with him. He was an inspiring leader and I’m glad to say that even in this terrible time in my life, I was able to learn grace and empathy from him as a manager, a lesson I took to my next jobs and to heart as a supervisor and manager in another industry where I’ve been happier and more successful for over 14 years.

To quote Fred Wilson, "[the web] transfers control from institutions to individuals and its going to do that to education too." We are entering the era of the "empowered learner". Education will not be cheaper or more expensive but will be more diverse as options multiply. There will be cheap, if not totally free, ways to learn with technology. But luxury style educational experiences will proliferate and succeed as well. Credentials will matter but be hacked and transformed. Though some brands will become global to the likes of Google and Facebook and feel dominant, education itself will be divergent rather than convergent, and efforts towards interoperability and standards to move towards convergent experiences for learners or institutions will be hard won rather than a given.Disruption, in its pure form as defined by its articulator Christensen in Disrupting Class, means building a more competitive business model by making a service more accessible to new groups of consumers - primarily through increased convenience and lowered price. The first customers are generally are unserved by the existing market. The businesses then create entirely new, more efficient business models with this beachhead and then march upward toward more demanding and desirable customers. As a result, forces that are disrupting education often do not look like they are doing so; they don't even necessarily look like an education.There are disruptive institutions that provide "degree programs" (from here on called Institutions) to students working towards Associates, Bachelors, and Masters Degrees. Disruptive Institutions (degree programs) are primarily “online institutions” like University of Phoenix, Devry, and American Public, but also include new entrants like Altius Education and University Now. There are also disruptive third parties that provide services to Institutions and Students and continue to support the relationship between Institution and Student (like Inigral, Lore and Piazza, Instructure, Chegg, and Rafter).The ultimate market disruption is happening as a more incoherent outcome of the disaggregation of services sought in degree programs and the disintermediation of Institutions to more autonomous Learners. The time frame here is likely decades, though Bill Gates once said we tend to overestimate how much change will happen in the next two years and underestimate how much change will happen in the next ten.Much of what the world will look like is showing itself in the world of technology entrepreneurship. Because of the tight job market and the meager chance that anyone learned relevant skill sets from Institutions, there exists a space where pre-existing notions of education and credentials are suspended.The Content Loop will leave no Learner behind at the unit level. The content will all be in reach media and games, and the sequence and modality of content will likely be personalized through interactive technology, including in the browser, on tablets, and mobile. Students will walk in knowing the fundamental information they need to know, if they walk in anywhere.Some will own the entire Content Loop, like Knewton and Grockit. However, Content Players (a Pandora for education with sequencing and presentation interfaces like MentorMob and LearningJar), Content Repositories (Khan Academy), and Assessments will talk to each other through APIs (see Creative Commons), thus unbundling the Content Loop.Content Loops will be either instructor or learner centered, with very few products being both. The functionality to provide instructors with the tools they need to perform is typically not the same as the functionality needed by the student. Thus, students use Quizlet, Chegg, and MyEDU and instructors use Blackboard.Publishers will have to reinvent themselves as participants in this Content Loop. Content will continue towards being more interactive and adaptive, with more and more content being free. While more content will be free, the best Content will still be produced by Publishers and will make lots of money. Independent and boutique publishers will be able to compete with the big boys in niche categories. Each category of content will operate like a traditional market, with a dominant player, a few competitive players with smaller market share, and boutique providers. The most innovative approaches will likely come from the Leisure Learning and Children's market, because it's more disruptive and there's more pressure on the stickiness of the content (see Tap to Learn, MindSnacks, MasterChef Academy, VocalizeU).As the Content Loop can be experienced independent from in-person instruction, the role of the "teacher" can be unbundled as well. Currently, teaching is something that is mostly a profession rather than a casual pursuit, with a smattering of non-career adjuncts and guest lecturers. A preserved teacher and instructor in a disrupted world will become more of a facilitator or Master of Ceremonies with many moving parts, seeking to package, conduct, and monitor an optimal experience for learners. As the time commitment involved with impacting learners will lower and the "teacher" role is unbundled, the functions may involve volunteers, adjuncts, and casual participants as moving parts in an orchestra of community involvement. More Practitioners will become content creators, facilitators, guests or mentors. Learners will thus have access to 1) content from the world's best practitioners, 2) feedback from and personal relationships with reputable practitioners. (Note, a practitioner is someone who actually does the thing you are learning.)The Credential will be diced, distributed, stackable and shareable. The existing accreditation system creates a guild of degree providers, and the degree is the only credential that matters. In the future, there will be "micro credentials" that can be transferred by API, and will have easy interfaces for sharing. Since it will be easy to literally see what you learned, where, how, and how fast you learned it, employers and random people you want to impress will take these credentials at face value and choose whether or not to accept them. OpenBadges and Degreed.com are now working on this sort of thing, but LinkedIn could be a player here as well. How will you represent your learning to the world?Assessment will need to divide into four parts: the automated assessments embedded into the Content Loop (Grockit), standardized exams that give you a micro credential (Smarterer), sites where peers will evaluate and give feedback on your work (Dribbble), and nuanced interactions with experts which then vouch or otherwise recommend you (LinkedIn, Quora... kind of). Then of course there will be places that aggregate all of this informaiton in a way that helps you get opportunities (Entelo as a recruiter focused one, Degreed as learner focused).There will not be good students and bad students, there will be students that need to go back to the Content Loop to continue learning a given unit of knowledge and students that are finished with the Content Loop because they retain and comprehend that knowledge. There will be metrics for performance for sure, for instance how fast someone progresses through the Content Loop, how well they are able to apply the knowledge to solve problems or make inferences in other contexts, or how helpful they are to others. Once they are done, the peer feedback and the expert opinions will start to set in, and this will be more about differentiating learners than ranking them.Since you will be able to get a transferable, demonstrable micro credential, Courses have the potential to be unbundled and divorced from schools and institutions. Right now, schools have brand recognition because of their monopoly on the Credential. But if courses get unbundled from Schools, Schools may be competing with each other and any other location as a host or brand behind the selection of instructors and courses. The idea of the course could be less relevant as well, as you could equally go through a curated sequence of content, such as the Playlists on MentorMob and Jars on LearningJar, or the content pages on Learnist.The line between leisure learning, professional development, and learning for gainful employment will blur as micro-credits become more widespread. If you were learning it for fun or for your previous job, you still learned it, right? As brand and employability become increasingly important, Employers with notable brands impatient with the quality of their candidates may get into the education game. Top-of-the-funnel recruiting and education content will blur, and the economics of providing educational content will be subsidized by recruiting (Smarterer, LearnUp).Schools will have to become experience providers, with more attention to identity. They will also have to understand that they are providing a personal transformation on top of content, and that they do not have to be in the content business where they do not have a competitive advantage. The type of attention to detail that Abercrombie, The W, or the Apple Store put into their experience (see General Asssembly). Places that have beautiful campuses in awesome settings have an advantage, but everyone will need to double down. Residential experiences will be more deliberate, and emphasizing a rite of passage and personal growth will increase. Some of these experience providers will figure out how to do this at low cost, like Target. Others will try to be Gucci. There will be room for both, particularly with a global marketplace since the number of wealthy individuals in the world is growing rapidly.There will arise intensive training programs focused on job preparedness. This will happen in areas traditionally dominated by accredited degree programs. (See DevBootCamp, HackerSchool, MobileMakers). There will also be a growing section of learning spaces similar to General Assembly, though physical campuses should try to dominate this action.Please leave your comments and ideas, and I will iterate this post accordingly.http://www.avc.com/a_vc/2009/03/hacking-education-continued.html