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This is one of those odd stories that somehow gets odder the deeper down you go, where the moral is basically “you should always read sceptically, even if the brands involved seem quite big and trustworthy, because nowadays almost all outlets publish content that they barely even read themselves”.Let’s start with this Bloomberg headline: New York Beats Out San Francisco to Be World’s Best Tech City.Now, just facially, this is a little dubious. Sure, NYC is great at lots of stuff. They’re world leaders at finance, fashion, journalism (maybe), and producing musicals about dead white people. And the startup scene there is definitely non-trivial (though WeWork’s numbers bloat said totals a bit). But a better tech city than SF? That’s, well, an extraordinary sort of claim.In the way of extraordinary evidence to justify this headline, Bloomberg pointed to a hot-off-the-press “study” from Savills World Research, who, in their own words, are “a dedicated team with an unrivalled reputation for producing well-informed and accurate analysis, research and commentary across all sectors of global property.”Setting that hyperbole aside for a second, here’s the money quote from Bloomberg:New York got points for its venture capital investment, which was billions of dollars greater than in San Francisco over the past three years, according to the report.Now, this claim also seemed odd to me. So I opened up said report to look for a bit of clarity.The first thing to note is that the publication in question is basically a ~500 word executive summary of a slightly longer PDF, which itself contains about the same level of information that you’d kinda expect from an executive summary. Its sole related bit of commentary is just “[NYC] VC investment volumes have topped those of San Francisco for the last three years”, which it illustrates with this fancy chart:So, a few things about this:It authority-references Pitchbook, but doesn’t actually link to or quote any specific Pitchbook study.It presents the average annual VC investment in NYC as being ~$22bn over the past three years. This would be exceptional, seeing as Pitchbook itself put 2016 at $8bn, which my math chops tells me is enough less than $22bn that later years would have had to be more or less meteoric to produce a $22bn average.While I couldn’t find any more recent NYC-specific numbers from Pitchbook, the latest MoneyTree Report put the NYC metro area at $9bn, $12bn, and $13bn for the past three years, which is about half the average quoted by Savills.Now, let’s compare those numbers to San Francisco’s:You’ll notice that on both the number of deals and the gross value of those deals, one area is consistently and significantly outperforming the other.And here’s the rub: the SF numbers don’t include Silicon Valley, which itself has also taken in considerably more than NYC in VC cash over the past two years (though not in 2016).Bonus RoundNow, you might be wondering, how could Savills have gotten this so wrong? And why was Bloomberg content to push a remarkably lightweight and self-serving report without, you know, making sure its contents were true?In the first case, there may be some context in which Savills’ claim is accurate. For example, they might be including contingent funding, recapitalization, private placements, venture debt, etc. I mean, who knows. But there are good reasons why the MoneyTree Report doesn’t count those (see page 98 of said doc). And even if those reasons had good counter-arguments, the whole thing that makes “research” actual research is that you generally have clear findings accompanied by explanatory notes that give context and clarity. Savills didn’t offer that, for what one can only assume are reasons related to their raison d'être incentives (hint: they’re a real estate brokerage).In the second case, it’s hard to overstate how lazy even the largest outlets have gotten when it comes to filling up their content streams. Editors don’t have the time or inclination to give serious review to non-feature pieces, and individual journalists are often happy to take sources at their word (especially when those sources provide them ready-to-go articles which they can just half-rewrite and then publish — which is a much more common practice than you’d think).As I’ve spent thousands of words on these subjects elsewhere, I won’t rehash all the arguments here, except to say that this is an entirely solvable problem that we somehow have done very little to solve — which is the sort of thing we probably need to get better at, and soon.

There is a book that I read when I was about 16. It was recommended to me by a mentor. Q, David Bowers (who probably doesn’t remember me, but that’s neither here nor there). He is one of the foremost Coin Collectors and dealers in the world. I read this book and thought over the lessons inside. I am a teacher. I don’t have extraordinary income for investing, but I would say that this lessons in this book have made me nearly $400,000 since I read it about 40 years ago. This book had me sell my all of my real estate investments the summer of 2007. I’ve exploited what I’ve learned in this book so that I make a decent chunk of change at every Olympics. It paid for the down payment on my first house. This has been the most important book on investing I’ve ever read. Not only that, but it is available for Free download as a pdf from any of various sites. It is a $.99 Kindle Download, because… AMAZON, mIright? Do a google search, and you can find it for free.Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds.Memoirs of extraordinary popular delusions and the madness of crowds : Mackay, Charles, 1814-1889 : Free Download & Streaming : Internet ArchiveWritten in 1848, it outlines many schemes, booms, and busts throughout history. Tulipmania, The Mississippi land bond scheme, and so on. The lesson I learned, is the lesson Warren Buffet has used time and again in his career (though, he used it better than I did). The lesson can be broken down into one sentence, “When you recognize the bigger fool is buying, it is time to sell.”I had some real estate investments I made in 2002. And I was doing quite well. I talked about it with some friends. In June of 2007, a friend of mine came up to me and said that he and his wife were going to buy an investment house. He wanted me to look at the deal for him. When I looked at it, it made no sense. The price of the house was so high, there was no way he could rent it for enough to break even against the mortgage, tax, and insurance. I asked him where he was getting the money to invest, he was borrowing against his house for the down payment. I pointed out that he would be negative cash flow about $800 a month. Then I talked to him about the costs of renting a house (nothing he had ever heard of before). When all was said and done, I told him that I would STRONGLY recommend he not make the investment. He withdrew his offer and went home. Later that day, I was called by a friend I’ve had since Middle School, same story. He was going to get a second to buy a house to rent. same story, negative cash flow. I told him the same thing, and he didn’t invest. That day, I called my tenants and told them we were going to refurbish the place we were renting them in order to get it ready to sell. I was giving them 60 day notice. I was going to try to sell to an investor, but I would be taking the best offer. We had 2 offers within 3 days, both above asking price. I countered both, and sold the place for a little more than double what we had paid 5 years before.I recognized that people who had no business getting a rental were trying to get one. Everyone and their uncle was jumping into the market, the time had come to get the H out.It reminded me a story.“In the winter of 1928, Joe Kennedy decided to stop to have his shoes shined before he started his day's work at the office. When the boy finished, he offered Kennedy a stock tip: "Buy Hindenburg." Kennedy soon sold off his stocks, thinking:”You know it's time to sell when shoeshine boys give you stock tips. This bull market is over.”” (copied from Wikipedia).The lessons in the book are clear and it is an interesting read to a History Buff (even the style of writing is interesting in respect to how differently they wrote back then). Grab it for free on your phone, read it here and there, and enjoy the lessons.Side note, I am getting my investments ready to liquidate next spring / summer. A basic thought, when the average house can not be bought on the average salary, there is an imbalance in the system. Imbalances in the system tend to correct themselves. Either there will be high inflation that will bring incomes up to the point where people can afford to buy the house, or the price of the house will come down.Oh, and both of my friends took me out for dinner later.

Mezquita de Omar Ibn Al-Jattab located in Maicao La Guajira Colombia11 Kilometers from the Venezuela Zulia Border.Is declaring Venezuela a "state sponsor of terrorism" appropriate?Venezuela President Nicolas Maduro has continued his predecessor Hugo Chavez’s welcoming stance toward the propaganda, recruitment, and fundraising of Islamist groups that fit into the anti-U.S. and anti-Semitic worldview inherent in the anti-imperialist “Bolivarian” ideology of the Venezuelan government. Maduro continues to provide various Islamist elements with assistance and safe havens for a range of financial and extra-territorial activities in Latin America and beyond.The roots of this Islamist affinity stretch back to Chavez’s years as a revolutionary in the 4-F movement, during which time the future Venezuelan president fell under the sway of individuals with a sympathetic view of a variety of “non-aligned” Middle Eastern rogues. Members of that group included now-embattled Syrian despot Bashar al-Assad, the late Libyan dictator Muammar Qadhafi, former Iraqi strongman Saddam Hussein, and the leaders of the Iranian Revolution.All of them are or where OPEC Oil members.These early lessons provided the basis for the foreign policy that Chavez pursued from the start of his presidency in 1999—a foreign policy that has been perpetuated by Maduro, and which made Venezuela a close ally of the Islamic Republic of Iran and an array of radical Islamist groups, chief among them Hezbollah.Over half a million Islamic Population from Turkey, Syria, Líbanon, Palestina, Jordania live in Colombia and Venezuela.Wayuu PeoplesThe indigenous tribe of the Wayuu walk across political boundaries without restrain. They were there before Venezuela and Colombia existed and they think of themselves as a nation.They control or assist the shipments of gas, salt,drugs and most illecit contraband merchandise.flowing from and between Venezuela - Colombia.Colombia largest Wayuu salt production. Manure La Guajira.Salinas salt Colombia trade La Guajira. 98% Wayuu indigenous population.For 500 years, the Wayuu people have resisted all who have come to take their land or resources, from Spanish settlers in search of pearls to English pirates looking for treasure. The discovery of coal, oil, salt and gas, however, has succeeded in altering the equation, and rapacious multinational energy companies now threaten not only La Guajira but also the culture and way of life of the Wayuu. The Wayuu were also for a long time caught in the war between the Colombian army, FARC and right-wing paramilitaries,in Venezuela placing the Wayuu in an extremely vulnerable position. In addition to drug smuggling, the paramilitaries have sought to assume control over the lucrative trade in gasoline and products from Venezuela that has traditionally been managed by the Wayuu, who are able to travel freely between the two countries and to bring goods into Colombia almost duty free.Recently a disturbing group has appeared, as alien visitors, in their desert landscape: Hezbollah. The Islamic fanatics of Hezbollah are rapidly infiltrating the tribe of the Wayuu. They are indoctrinating the members of this tribe, to convert them into Islamic fanatics in charge of disseminating the terrorist message that has already created chaos, death and misery in the Middle East. The Hezbollah group invading Venezuela is doing its work openly on the Venezuelan side of the Guajira Peninsula. They are disseminating, via Internet, a strategy "to change Venezuela," including:Total destruction "of the sex industry" Venezuela is one of the largest legal prostitution country where a high level of Venezuela women engage as young as 16 into the legal prostitution network now the only work available bringing money to survive and eat.Attacking the upper classes, "who are the most corrupt," all white collar criminals and continuing the cleaning of the population downwards,Attacking corruption in government and in the masses, both civilians and military,Attacking false idols and satanic cults, as defined by them.The logo adorning the main page and document is an AK-47 rifle. The propaganda appearing on the Web presence of the Venezuelan subsidiary of Hezbollah ….[hosted by Microsoft] talks about installing the kingdom of God in Venezuela by imposing a military-theocratic type of government, an explosive mixture similar to what already exists in Iran. It claims: "The brief enjoyment of life on earth is selfish. The other life is better for those who follow Allah. In the leaflets that encourage the suicide missions of children and teenagers in Palestine.Islamist Activity:1-Venezuela is an attractive way station for Islamist groups, which have a quiet but longstanding and profitable presence there that includes fundraising, smuggling, money laundering, and training. The U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) estimates that “Islamist terrorist groups raise between three hundred million and five hundred million dollars per year in the Triple Frontier and the duty-free zones of Iquique, Colon, Maicao, and Margarita Island, Venezuela.”2-There is a special relationship between the Venezuelan government and Iran’s chief terrorist proxy, Hezbollah. Venezuela provides political, diplomatic, material and logistical support to Hezbollah. As it is in most of Latin America, Hezbollah is the primary Islamist force in Venezuela. Capitalizing on the network of enterprising Lebanese Shia merchants throughout the country’s larger cities, the group uses the South American country for fundraising and various forms of money-laundering, smuggling, and fraud. The basic model is a simple “pay to play” system, in which local Lebanese Shia merchants are persuaded by Hezbollah agents and financiers, through varying degrees of coercion, to “tithe” to Hezbollah.3 -Most worrisome, however, is the network of underworld connections that Hezbollah is building throughout the hemisphere from its base in Venezuela.There have been several reports of the Venezuelan government providing identification documents to suspected members of Hezbollah, and other Islamist terrorist organizations from the Middle East. One former director of Venezuela’s immigration agency has suggested that the number of documents provided to Islamist militants number in the tens of thousands.4- Another official, a former legal attaché to the Bolivarian Republic’s embassy in Iraq named Misael Lopez-Soto, provided even more damning evidence. In a special CNN documentary, Lopez-Soto provided an eyewitness account and documentary evidence that the Venezuelan embassy in Baghdad was selling passports to suspected members of Hezbollah.5- In one case, Lopez-Soto identified an acquaintance of one of the 9/11 hijackers who fled to Venezuela after the attack on the World Trade Center and Pentagon.The CNN documentary pointed to the country’s former Vice President (and current Minister of Industry and Production), Tareck El-Aissami, as the most prominent government official involved in this alleged passports-for-terrorists scheme. The son of Syrian-Lebanese parents, El Aissami was groomed as an ardent supporter of Islamists and has used his political prominence to establish conduits to several Islamic governments. He has helped create a criminal-terrorist pipeline funneling illicit funds and drugs to the Middle East and facilitating the movement of Islamists into the Western Hemisphere.6- One intelligence report cited by the CNN documentary estimates that at least 173 Islamist militants from the Middle East received identification documents from the government of Venezuela. These militants capitalized on a sophisticated, multi-layered money-laundering network established by El Aissami and his family while he was the Interior Minister from 2008-2012.7-One of the individuals benefitting from El Aissami’s financial network is the former Venezuelan diplomat, Ghazi Nassereddine, who is sanctioned as a “Specially Designated Global Terrorist” by the U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Financial Assets and Control (OFAC).8- The Nassereddine’s are a prominent Lebanese family in Venezuela with close ties to Hezbollah. They are believed to have facilitated travel to, and logistical support in, Venezuela for Hezbollah operatives for several decades, establishing a real estate footprint on Margarista Island, off the Caribbean coast.9- Ghazi Nasserredine, who is also wanted by the FBI, and Tareck El Aissami are both sanctioned by OFAC. Ghazi in 2008 and Tareck in February 2017 as a “Specially Designated Narcotics Trafficker.”10- Walid Makled Garcia, a noted Syrian-Venezuelan drug kingpin incarcerated in 2011, identified Tareck El Aissami and his brother Feras as former clients.11- Makled claimed that the El Aissami brothers would pay him to create spaces for the Venezuelan armed forces to move illicit products from Venezuela to the Middle East and West Africa. With more than 40 Venezuelan generals on his payroll, Makled had strategic access to ports, airports, national airlines, and fertilizer plants, to cover and conceal the movement of illicit narcotics and launder the funds for several Drug Trafficking Organizations, including Hezbollah.12-Islamism and Society:Venezuela’s Muslim population is small but influential. According to the conservative estimate of the U.S. State Department in its 2017 International Religious Freedom Report, there are more than 100,000 Muslims in Venezuela, primarily of Lebanese and Syrian descent, and concentrated in Nueva Esparta and Caracas.13-While Margarita Island’s Muslim population is almost entirely Lebanese Shia, there are Sunni Muslims elsewhere in the country, and Caracas has a largely Sunni population of 15,000 that is served by one of the largest mosque in Latin America, built by the Saudis as a sister mosque to the Sheikh Ibrahim Al-Ibrahim mosque in Gibraltar.14-There are other mosques in the major Venezuela cities of Maracaibo, Valencia, Vargas, Punto Fijo, and Bolivar. Local cable television outlets is available in Margarita carry Al-Jazeera and the Lebanese Hezbollah outlet LBC, while on the mainland the Saudi Channel is available via satellite as well.15-The picture of Islamism and society in Venezuela resembles that of much of Latin America. While there is a vague anti-globalist sense that pervades society, actual friendship with Islamist aims is at the political, rather than the religious, level.16-While the Latin American left at times can sound Islamist in its politics and its understanding of who the “enemy” is, apart from one-off episodes, there is no mass conversion to Islam taking place in Venezuela—or, indeed, in the region. This is not to say that efforts have not been made, especially among indigenous and Creole groups whose Christianity has never been especially solid. To the contrary, in the past 150 years of immigration from the Middle East to the New World, the opposite trend has held sway. Many prominent turcos (immigrants and their descendants from the Middle East) originally were Muslim, but have been genuine conversos (converts to Christianity) for generations.Thus, the presence in Caracas of the largest mosque in Latin America may give Muslim proselytizers the right to say they have penetrated the region, but it reflects Venezuela’s cosmopolitan self-image more than it serves as evidence of an Islamic trajectory. Nonetheless, one should not dismiss the larger fact that Islam does play a significant—if not central—role in Venezuela’s anti-globalist and anti-hegemonic culture, which post-colonial critic Robert Young notes incarnates a "tricontinental counter-modernity" that combines diaspora and local cultural elements, and blends Arab, Islamic, black and Hispanic factors to generate "a revolutionary black, Asian and Hispanic globalization, with its own dynamic counter-modernity... constructed in order to fight global imperialism."Maicao La Guajira Colombia / Mosque of Omar Ibn Al-Khattab built in September 1997, is the third largest mosque in Latin America. Although, Colombia is predominantly a Roman Catholic country, the region around Maicao has a large Lebanese migrant population who funded and built the mosque.In 2005 an obscure group, known by the name of Hezbollah Venezuela, appeared on the radar of first local but soon also global intelligence agencies, media outlets and security analysts from Manuel R. Torres Soriano, ‘La fascinación por el éxito: el caso de Hezbollah en América Latina’, Jihad Monitor Occasional Paper,(2006).Through the other names used by the organization, Hezbollah Guajira and Autonomía Islámica Wayúu, it soon became evident that it entertained a specific relationship to the Guajira Peninsula, whose vast arid expanse is shared between Venezuela and Colombia, and to the local Wayúu, who constitute the largest indigenous group in both countries. Due to a combination of factors, most importantly the political contest between President Hugo Chávez (d.2013) and his opposition and the related emergence of a widely disseminated (and at times highly idiosyncratic) media narrative portraying Latin America as a hotbed of Islamist/Jihadist finance and refuge for terrorist groups, there soon developed an unwarranted outright media frenzy around the group and its leader.The city of Maicao on the Colombian Guajira as well as Foz do Iguazú (Brazil) and Ciudad del Este (Paraguay) figure prominently in such accounts. John Tofik Karam, ‘Crossing the Americas: The U.S. War on Terror and Arab Cross-Border Mobilizations in a South American Frontier Region’, Comparative Studies of South Asia, Africa and the Middle East, 31(2) (2011), pp. 251–266; Philipp Bruckmayr, ‘Syro-Lebanese Influence on the Guajira Peninsula: Unexpected Historical Continuities from Economic Dominance to Hezbollah Venezuela?’, in Trevor Batrouney, Tobias Boos, Anton Escher and Paul Tabar (eds.), Palestinian, Lebanese and Syrian Communities in the World: Theoretical Frameworks and Empirical Studies (Heidelberg: Winter Verlag, 2014), pp. 160–161.Eventually, it was claimed that ‘the entire Wayuu Indian tribe simply converted to Islam because their chief, Teodoro Darnott, was a member of the pro-Chávez Grupo Nacionalista party’.Ely Karmon, director of the Israeli International Institute for Counter-Terrorism, cited in Larry Luxner, ‘Is South America a Terrorist Incubator?’, Torá Tropical, 4(1) (2008),Evidently, this and similar allegations were based on oppositional media reports claiming that Chávez was lending active support to Islamic terrorist organizations, suspicions which were in turn fuelled by the president’s overtures towards his Iranian counterpart and Palestinian leaders.The first Hezbollah concerns originate in the Guajira Peninsula shared by Colombia and Venezuela, where Teodoro Darnott, a self-declared liberator of the indigenous Wayúu people, has established what he calls the Hezbollah Venezuela organization, which draws on Shiʿi revolutionary ideology to justify a local struggle for self-determination. They claim to defend a Lebanon attack from Israel.However the drug business is managed by some Wayuu indigens as they have a dijrect access across the Zulia Venezuela border from Maicao, Paraguachon —the border line into near by towns of Paraguaipoa y Sinamaica in Venezuela.Despite their very different contexts, In Venezuela both are tales of the recent spread of Shiʿism which share common features. First, they display a remarkable degree of ‘localization’ regarding the new Muslem religious orientation, driven by its inculturation into the respective cultural and religious milieus.According to FBI investigators who allegedly told Rio de Janeiro's O Globo in late October 2001 that in addition to the Triborder Region, a focal point of terrorism in South America was Maicao, described as an Islamic community of approximately 4,670 vacation spot for orthodox Islamics and the largest and best organized Islamic community in Colombia with a minority Shiites from Syria and Lebanon reportedly more closely associated with the Muslim fundamentalist concept.The report said that there were cells of the radical group Hezbollah and that it controlled up to 70 percent of the local commerce. "The merchants from there make contributions equivalent to 10 percent and even up to 30 percent of their profits. And those responsible for the fund send the money via banks in Maracaibo in Venezuela, and in Panama.The Department of Administrative Security (Departamento de Seguridad Administrativa―DAS) shut down a clandestine radio station in Maicao on August 15, 1997, for broadcasting Hezbollah propaganda, and a couple of arrests for money laundering, Maicao's Muslim community reportedly has had few contacts with the law. Nevertheless, it is known that the black market for weapons and money laundering in Maicao and neighboring Zulia State in Venezuela is well established.The new Shiʿis of Guajira are in their majority not part of the urban intelligentsia, but of rural or urban lower-class backgrounds. However, the Venezuela cases also display significant differences, precisely as a function of their particular localizations in very different contexts.Hezbollah in América Latina’s failed attempt in October 2006 to bomb the U.S. embassy in Caracas was a significant event. The group, based within the country’s Wayuu Indian population, boasts of activity in Argentina, Chile, Colombia, El Salvador and Mexico on their website,which is written in Spanish and Chapateka (a combination of the Wayuu language and Spanish). However, the backbone of the organization is in Venezuela on the country’s western border with Colombia. The group’s members are local Venezuelans without Muslim heritage, and claim to be Shiite supporters of Hezbollah and Iran.If the Venezuela Maduro regime is ultimately ousted from power, it will likely have a negative impact on Hezbollah in Venezuela. After all, the group's tentacles extend into the upper reaches of Venezuela's current government—Tareck El Aissami, the minister of industries and national production, was designated by the U.S. Treasury Department under a counter-narcotics authority and allegedly has a close relationship with Hezbollah.Yet on balance, Hezbollah has deep roots in Venezuela, and completely expelling the group—no matter how high a priority for the Trump administration—remains unlikely. The best-case scenario for Washington could be an ascendant Guaidó administration that agrees to combat Hezbollah's influence—if the new government is willing to accept a U.S. presence in the country to begin training Venezuelan forces in the skills necessary to counter terrorism and transnational organized criminal networks with strong ties to Venezuelan society. But that scenario, of course, is dependent on the United States offering such assistance in the first place.1-Maicao - Wikipedia2-Divergent processes of localization in twenty-first-century Shiʿism: the cases of Hezbollah Venezuela and Cambodia’s Cham Shiʿis3-La rivalidad Estado Islámico-Hezbollah en América Latina4-HEZBOLLAH in Venezuela: Chávez joins the terrorists on his path to martyrdom5https://kuscholarworks.ku.edu/bitstream/handle/1808/6389/Pickell_ku_0099M_10753_DATA_1.pdf;sequence=16-Comment la Colombie se comporte envers sa population musulmane7-Visitar Maicao en el departamento de la Guajira8-Wayuu Land — the Story INSTITUTE9-The World Almanac of Islamism10-Hezbollah Is in Venezuela to Stay12-Interpol detecta actividades ilícitas de Hezbollah en Colombia