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PDF Editor FAQ

Are Australian banks contacting American expats in light of FACTA?

Banks are suppose to review their files from 2014 and determine if any expats were affected. I am a US expat and have yet to be notified or questioned as to whether I am an American. Westpac are aware now because it's listed on all loan applications when you apply for credit. They will notify the IRS once you are approved and it's up to you to declare it on your US tax return for the reporting tax year. You don't get taxed on it, but you will need to report it if your bank balance is over $10,000 at any given time. The bottom line is that the ATO and IRS are linked and you will be found out eventually. There is currently an amenisty program in place but not sure how long this will last. I'm by no means an expert on this, just from personal experience dealing with US/ATO tax reporting. I hope this answered your question or at least put you on the right track.

If I am waiting for next housing crash to buy a house, how long will I have to wait? Are housing crashes cyclical?

We are probably close to peak private debt now (or peak stupidity as some would say) . Australian household debt to GDP is now about 125% leading the world bar Sweden. The Australian property market has seen the better part of a trillion dollars over the last ten years spent chasing a small amount of land around our capital cities. If the median house price in Sydney were 500K instead of 1M+ we would be just as well off but the capital could have been put to more productive use…There are a few other parameters that will drive the next property crash- Australian banks exposure to property. The big banks loan books are exposed 60-70% to property. This is far higher than anywhere else in the world.- We have tax law that encourages property speculation. Negative Gearing and Capital gains discount. How else did Westpac end up with over 50% of interest only loans- Although our banks have not been as leveraged as the US banks were before the GFC, we have had relatively lax macro prudential rules- You want to borrow 95% of the value of the house , no problem in Australia- You want to borrow 6-8 times your income no problem in Australia- You want to fudge your loan application - no problem, our mortgage broker can do that for you- Chinese investors have pretty much unfettered access to our residential real estate markey. The law is that that they can only buy new properties. This has not been enforced. In sepember 2017, 25% of all NSW stamp duty receipts were chinese- We have a turbo-charged migration program. On a per capita basis it is 30% bigger than Canadas. A Ballarat or over 100K of people added to Sydney AND Melbourne each year. This drives housing demand.- Huge foreign student contingent in Sydney and to a lesser degree melbourne. One of our biggest exports, printing degrees.- Record low interest rates. Same all over the world. Awash with liquidity from QE.- Stagnant wages. Roy Morgan says that in Dec 2017 unemployment in Australia was 9.8% and under employment was 9.6% , almost 20% slack in the work force.- There are of the order of 500K 457 visa workers in Australia. These make up our indentured workers ripped of by 7-Eleven and Dominos et al. A whole new business model from the 3rd world.- At some point over the next 3 years about 70 billion of Interest Only loans will transition to interest and principal with a payment increase of up to 70%- Interest rates will likely increase across the world. The US Fed has ear marked several increases for 2018- APRA only started tightening Macro Prudential settings the middle of 2017. Most of the damage was done by then- The median house price is 9-12 times the median income in Sydney- The AVERAGE mortgage in Sydney is now over 600K- The housing boom was pushed along by a once in a lifetime mining investment boom. (China boom)- China accounts for almost 35% of our exports. China sneezes we get pnuemonia- With record low interest rates there is already mortgage stress across many metropolitan suburbs. The september and December figures show descretionary spending is down drven by cost of living pressures.- The bank of mum and dad (parents) is the 5th biggest funder of mortgages. This source is slowing down, possibly tapped out already.- China has recently (late 2017) stopped capital leaving the country. The Chinese buyer caravans have largly disappeared from Sydney and Melbourne. This was a good part of the market liquidity- APRA recently tightened investor loan requirements, insisting they have more skin in the game. ie greater deposits. This has pretty much dried up investor interest- Sydney has seen 18 weeks of small price decreases to Jan 2018.- Brisbane has a major glut of apartments on the market- Yields on Sydney and Melbourne properties are generally lousy. Rents are sliding already.- Every one I know has a story about one or more couples on a combined income of 120-150K who have a mortgage of 600-800K.- Up to Mid 2017 there was an increasing number of owner occupiers taking out interest only loans on their principal residence. (I wonder why?)-There are 350 cranes on Sydney's skyline. That is more than New York, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Seattle,… combined. Does any one think that is sustainable?- Auction clearance rates are already in the 50% range in Sydney and Melbourne. May be quite a bit lower given many houses are withdrawn before auction or not reported.We don’t have the securitisation or packaging of mortgages into CDO's that the US had pre GFC but we have a cocktail of conditions that are possibly more toxic. Shortly, given APRA has generally tightened macro prudential rules and has started looking at loan serviceability, fewer people are going to get loans. With the median price over 1M the loan will need to be 800+K for many people. This sort of loan is only available to a very small section of the community. With less market liquidity driven by the absence of the Chinese and the investor house flipper contingent, and the increased difficulty of the average punter to get loan, prices will ease. You want to sell, there will no longer be a queue of candidates to buy. Unless you price on the market your house will not sell. There are pockets still selling well in Sydney, but these are pockets.Its likely to be a slow melt in 2018. Any external shock and the whole house of cards comes apart. There is no surplus anymore to spend, interest rates are already super low, not much relief to be had here, and cost of capital to local banks is likely to increase this year as ECB and Fed ease out of endless QE. The Trump tax cut may well see a mini boom (bubble) as another trillion in share buy backs is triggered to add to the approx 4 trillion since the GFC. A lot of these buybacks executed on cheap credit.So we are unlikely to see a property crash in 2018 unless precipitated by an external shock. However for house prices to keep going up we need accelerating credit. The pace of credit expansion has significantly slowed but still exceeds wages and inflation. Further tightening by APRA, cost of living pressures and stagnant wages should see it slow more. The question is will the inevitable deleverage happen in an orderly fashion or not? I suspect not. There are probably too many loans , particularly interest only ones where the investor never had an intention of paying them off. If and when these hit the market driven by rate increases or the switch to P&I, the number of them could cause a tipping point where the number of houses presented for sale and the prices asked exceed the markets ability to fund them.....http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-21/how-interest-rate-rises-could-affect-home-loan-stress/87https://medium.com/@matt_11659/matt-barrie-australias-economy-is-a-house-of-cards-6877adb3fb2MB Primer: Why is Australian housing so expensive?

Why is FinTech so popular today?

Fintech is beginning to disrupt the financial world as we know it. The financial industry is now more focused than ever on technological innovation than at any other time. It’s so important, Malcolm Turnbull referred to it in his first speech as PM.But, for those unfamiliar with the term, here’s a quick explainer.Put simply, Fintech is financial technology; a digital revolution. It’s about major changes to asset management, business and personal loans, fundraising, money transfers, and the way we invest. Fintech involves disrupting the way all businesses operate, as well as our personal finances. Why pay to see a financial advisor when you can get financial advice online for a much lower price?Until recently, the financial industry has been regarded as being the industry slowest to grasp innovation. But the wheels are turning. Turnbull said Australia must recognize "that the disruption that we see driven by technology, the volatility in change, is our friend if we are agile and smart enough to take advantage of it."His words all but heralded the sound of Fintech disrupters breaking into cheers. CEO of Stockspot, Australia’s only automated investment service, Chris Brycki said consumers are quickly embracing automated, easy digital wealth management and dropping old methods.“So many of the wealth management options available to Australians are outdated and either expensive or poor performing, or both. But the manner in which money is invested in both private and public markets is changing with the help of technology. It’s making it more accessible, affordable and honest. Automated Investing enables the democratization of high-quality investment performance and makes it available to everyday Australians,” said Brycki.“The big four banks (CBA, NAB, Westpac, ANZ) and AMP are ‘vertically integrated’, allowing them to both manufacture financial products and recommend them through their financial advice networks. This has led to a situation where bank-aligned advisers exhibit a strong preference for their own products and platforms over competing offerings, seemingly without regard to whether they’re really the best options for their clients.”A study by Roy Morgan released in May this year found that 75 percent of advisers allocate their clients’ funds into products offered by an aligned fund manager.“The big banks still require manual physical ID checks to open accounts. Stockspot offers a completely online sign-up process and we’re the only investment service providing personalized investment advice online. The big banks don’t want to provide personal advice online because it steps on the toes of their armies of advisers and salespeople,” said Brycki.In the UK, Robo-advisors and automated investment services are already forces to be reckoned with. Reports show that the 11 leading start-ups in the Robo-advice space currently manage over $15.7 billion in client assets.“Australians aren’t far behind,” said Brycki. “Automated Investment is an evolution of how we invest. Automation simply makes it faster, easier and cheaper for the consumer, the same way automation and digital access have across other services.”“This type of technology is only scratching the surface when it comes to the innovations that will evolve to drive the future growth of the financial industry and more broadly, the future of wealth management.”Australian company On-Market BookBuilds (OMB) is a tool that allows every broker in the market to bid into IPOs (initial public offerings) and placements via the ASX infrastructure.OMB Founder Ben Bucknell told HuffPost Australia Fintech is all about technological developments that can rewrite the infrastructure on which the financial system runs.“It’s about replacing the pipes that connect the market and what runs through those pipes, for example, digital currencies. So it’s about the application of technology to remove the friction within the financial system itself that imposes time and cost on the consumer,” said Bucknell.“What’s exciting is when you look at the number of changes that have happened in your personal life, whether it’s taking a taxi or booking a restaurant. Those changes have been enormous and I don’t think we have seen those changes yet in financial technology in the way they’ve capitalized on all the technology that’s out there right now.""Remember when mobile phones came out and people said, 'That won't make things convenient!' Nobody could have foreseen the huge changes. If you think about social media, the rise of the collective, and what impact that's had and then imagine the sort of impact on financial services, then there's a hugely empowering force for technology to improve the financial well being of ordinary people. And this is just the beginning."

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