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One has to remember that while Bismarck was not a military man, he was a Prussian man and a proud one at that. These weren’t calculations he was making, at least early on, they were gambles of the highest order.Sorry 19th Century Europe, you were Bismarcked™!Otto von Bismarck was born in Schönhausen which sits west of Berlin in the Prussian province of Saxony. This is about as Prussian as one could get in terms of birth and blood.Bismarck’s father, Karl Wilhelm Ferdinand von Bismarck, was a military man himself and a Junker in his own right. Bismarck had a traditional Junker upbringing which emphasized the typical idolization of the Prussian military establishment and he ran with it, wearing military uniforms up until the conclusion of the Franco-Prussian War to give belief to the ideas indoctrinated into him.The greatest belief that was impressed upon him and that of many other Prussians was the strongest influence in his thinking; the power of Prussia militarily, the idea of ‘an army with a state.’ There is a continual history within Germany, specifically the Prussian region, of military order and unity to preserve stability. That is to say, the belief that a strong and domineering military is the best way to achieve life, liberty, and the pursuit of (collective) happiness. Sounds eerily familiar. It is a hedonic adaptation of the Prussian people, the military bringing continual calm for years and consistently steering Prussia through crises.Bismarck embarked on his gambles—the Schleswig-Holstein Question, Austro-Prussian War of 1866, Franco-Prussian War—with not so much as a confidence of victory as a continual compounding of experience drawn from previous gambles. The success of the Schleswig-Holstein Crisis gave confidence to success in the Austro-Prussian War which gave further confidence for success in the Franco-Prussian War. It’s a cascading effect of realpolitik.Adding to this was the experience and intuition of both Albrecht von Roon and Helmuth von Moltke the Elder whose advice was taken at full value by Bismarck time and again. The trio would clash from time to time over various issues but for the 12 years they journeyed—from dealing with the Danish to smacking down the French—they work with clockwork precision to employ both Prussia’s military and diplomacy to maximum effect.Bismarck had essentially fallen into the hot-hand fallacy without actually failing, knowing when to quit as his goals had been achieved. Compounding this was the counsel of both Roon and Moltke who were both pioneers in terms of military science in their own right. Luck and hard work meshed into a perfectly formed tempest of Prussian fury.The odds were in the Iron Chancellor’s favor, all he had to do was play them.Thanks for the A2A Daniel

Cocaine - I just cannot understand why people put things up their nose, it seams so unnatural and wrong!Heroin - similar to the above, but also I'm not keen on needles.Have sex with a man - I'm not in anyway homophobic, but personally I don't think I could ever be attracted to another man.Gamble in vegas - I've never been to vegas but I'm sure I will do one day and from my learnings from previous gambling I know to stay well clear of it.Work in retail - I simply couldn't bare it!Commit suicide - there's lots of good reasons to stay alive and no matter how bad my life got I can always work to improve itFinish a list of ten things I'd never do

Given your comments, I'm not surprised to see you've come here for help after exhausting Google's long list of backgammon sites as all having rigged dice. Your previous gambling successes against the Turks indeed point to crooked folks on the interwebs who have nothing better to do with their time than sabotage your rolls.As is usually the case with me, I suggest FIBS (the First Internet Backgammon Server) as my preferred site. There is a statistical function you can call up if you need assurance the dice are not "fixed".I also offer you the following two aphorisms:- It's a poor carpenter that blames his tools- The better I play, the luckier I get