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“Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic”—Authur C. ClarkeJust 1-click And The “Self Driving” StoreIt was a cold day at Amazon headquarters on September 12th, 1997. Jeff Bezos was nervous as he submitted a new and unique patent to the USTPO called “Method and system for placing a purchase order via a communications network “ [0]. This came to be known as the Amazon 1-click patent and a few years later it was licensed by Apple for their websites and later iTunes. It defined the web experience since.“Shop And Just Walk Out”—Amazon, 2016Amazon just invented the one click buying experience for retail.Specimen: Front elevation of a typical Amazon Go retail store.Today, December 5th, 2016 Amazon announced the Amazon Go Store[1] a new shopping experience that fundamentally changes the very fabric of shopping and payments at the same time. Amazon has combined decades of research with artificial intelligence and machine learning along with image recognition. They have combined all of the knowledge that they've gained from the one click buying experience and brought this to the retail store.In 1861 John Wanamaker invented the way we currently shop [2]. Today Amazon just reinvented the entire retail and payments experience. It is a store with no credit card machines or cash registers, just AI. Amazon is using the same technology that can be found in the life-saving aspects of self-driving cars, in the Amazon Go Store. It is very powerful technology.Specimen: Amazon Go retail store video demonstration.Amazon Go Ends Check Out Lines And Cash RegistersIt’s called "just walk out" technology and when you walk out, your purchase is complete with a receipt in your app, charged to your Amazon account. This is achieved by an entryway that is similar to the subway turnstiles that you see in major cities. Yes this sounds like magic, retail magic.Specimen: Of the subway turnstile entrance area for the Amazon Go retail store.Specimen: Of the QR code used to enter the Amazon Go retail store.Specimen: Of a cell phone scan to enter the Amazon Go retail store.A smartphone with the app installed is required to enter the store via presenting a barcode to a sensor. This barcode scan (along with other sensor technology eg: GPS, etc) tracks that you have entered the store, identifies you're moving through the store and then identifies the product you pick up. To complete your shopping experience just walk out the door. Yes, that’s it. The image recognition combined with a sensor fusion of technologies has already confirmed your order and totalled it up. All billed to your future Amazon Bank Card, but currently to the payment card you have on file with them, the nearing 1 billion payment cards they have on file.Specimen: Of the automatic shopping cart in the Amazon app for the Amazon Go retail store.Specimen: Of a customer leaving the Amazon Go retail store.Specimen: Of a customer verifying a receipt for the Amazon Go retail store.The End Of Shoplifting?This Amazon magic is all achieved through a number of very advanced technologies. The most fundamental is the use of hundreds of image sensing cameras. Using advanced artificial intelligence and machine learning, Amazon can detect a product that is not only missing from the shelves, Being held in your hands, put into a bag, or even under a shirt. Yes, Amazon has solved shoplifting almost entirely.Specimen: Some of the sensor technology at the Amazon Go retail store.Members Only, No Cash Or Credit Cards AcceptedAmazon is fundamentally changing everything we thought we knew about retail sales. They have merged AI and ML data science that they just about invented for online sales and meshed it for a unique retail buying experience. The ideas here are familiar and can be found at play at Apple stores when using the Apple store App and self check out. Amazon took it to the highest degree, there is no self check out. Like a buying club or Costco store, you have to be an Amazon Prime member to complete a transaction. In fact they don’t accept cash or payment cards in the store, there are no credit card machines and there are no cash registers or POS systems. This is the beginning of the end of the POS system.Custom Real-Time Coupons And Discounts Based On Prior And Current BehaviorJust like when you visit a website and you are logged in, the Amazon Go shopping experience is tracking all of your shopping behaviors. Over time this will inform Amazon on the exact placement of products and how consumers may interact with them. Machine Learning about the amount of time spent in the store and the transverse path you make through the store will assist Amazon in creating customized, on demand discounts related to your current or prior buying behavior. Some may find this a bit troubling to be watched to closely while shopping in a retail store. However live video cameras and real-time AI systems have been used for years. The Las Vegas Casinos have bene expert at trailblazing this technology to spot banned gamblers and/or cheats.The Tale Of Two PatentsThose of you have been following me on Quora know that I have been talking about Amazon entering into not only retail selling but online and retail payments. I wrote that at some point in time Amazon would become the AWS for payments both retail and online just like they became the AWS for web services. There were several things that allowed me to understand just how this would happen. In two patents filed on June 26th, 2013 Amazon cited “Detecting item interaction and movement” [3] and on September 24, 2014 cited “Transitioning items from the materials handling facility” [4] . Both of these patents telegraphed the future that has now arrived in Amazon Go.Initially these Amazon patents seem to be related only to a use case inside of warehouses or fulfillment centers. However the insights I had in 2013 suggested Amazon was seeking to patent a product that duplicates the one click buying experience that they have mastered on the Internet now applied for a retail store.The “Detecting item interaction and movement” patent is about as close as you get to what Amazon Go is doing today. Here are some of the patent’s embodiments:If the user enters or passes through a transition area, such as a rebin station, another inventory location, pack station, shipping, exit from the materials handling facility, etc., the items identified on the item identifier list may be transitioned. Because the items have already been identified, the transition may be done automatically without any affirmative input from the user or delay to the user. For example, if the user, such as a shipping agent, is exiting the materials handling facility with the items, the user will pass through a transition area (such as a loading door, a door exiting the materials handling facility, etc.) as they exit the materials handling facility. When the user enters or passes through the transition area, the items identified on the item identifier list are automatically transitioned from the materials handling facility to the user. Continuing with the above example, the items may be automatically transitioned from the materials handling facility to the shipping agent in response to a determination that the shipping agent has passed through the transition area. As another example, if the transition area is a rebin station within the materials handling facility, the items may be transitioned from the original storage location to the rebin station. As still another example, if the materials handling facility is a retail location and the customer is purchasing items, when the customer passes through the exit (transition area) of the retail location, the items picked by the user may be automatically transitioned from the materials handling facility to the user and the user may be charged a fee for the items. In a similar manner, if the materials handling facility is a rental location, a library, etc., the transition area may be near the exit of the facility. When the user leaves with items, the items are transitioned from the materials handling facility to the user that is taking the items. In such a case, a rental or borrow time identifying when the items are to be returned may be associated with the items and the user. The transition of the items may be done automatically and without any affirmative input or delay to the user. For example, if the user is purchasing items from a retail location, rather than the user having to stop and "check out" with a cashier, teller or automated check station, because the picked items are already known and identified on an item identifier list associated with the user, the user may simply exit the retail location with the items. The exit of the user will be detected and, as the user passes through the exit (transition area), the user, without having to stop or otherwise be delayed, will automatically be charged a fee for the items (the items are transitioned to the user).Here is the patent’s abstract:AbstractThis disclosure describes a system for tracking removal or placement of items at inventory locations with a materials handling facility. In some instances, a user may remove an item from an inventory location and the inventory management system may detect that removal and update a user item list associated with the user to include an item identifier representative of the removed item. Likewise, if the user places an item at an inventory location, the inventory management system may detect that placement and update the user item list to remove an item identifier representative of the placed item.Specimen: Amazon patent.The “Transitioning items from the materials handling facility” patent also showsAbstractThis disclosure describes a system for automatically transitioning items from a materials handling facility without delaying a user as they exit the materials handling facility. For example, while a user is located in a materials handling facility, the user may pick one or more items. The items are identified and automatically associated with the user at or near the time of the item pick. When the users enters and/or passes through a transition area, the picked items are automatically transitioned to the user without affirmative input from or delay to the user.Here are some of the patent’s embodiments:By detecting the removal and/or placement of items by users in the materials handling facility, the movement of items within and exiting the materials handling facility may be accomplished without requiring the user to undergo additional transition of the items. For example, if the materials handling facility is a retail store, users may pick items from within the facility, place the items in a cart, bag, pocket, or otherwise carry the items and the items are automatically identified and associated with the user. When the user exits the facility the items may be transitioned from the facility to the user and the user charged for the items. This may be done without the user having to undergo the additional step of checking out with a cashier, the cashier identifying and scanning each item and the user paying the cashier for the item.Specimen: Amazon patent.It is clear Amazon thought about this for over 4 years and perfected the use case inside of their own warehouses. Quite unknown and unseen by many is how Amazon cross confirmed the ML and AI based image recognition they pioneered.In 2009 The Image Recognition Technology Seed Was PlantedThis goes way back to 2009 and the acquisition of SnapTell [5] by Amazon. They developed image recognition technology that could identify a huge number of popular products just by their images. This technology was absorbed by Amazon’s very private “Bell Labs of this century” labs. By 2014 Amazon integrated this technology in its app for what has become known as “showrooming” [6]. This allows consumers to visit a local store, take a picture of a product and instantly get a price comparison. It has since been de-emphasized.Specimen: Amazon image recognition system used in the Amazon app.The End Goal Is To Be AWS For Retailers And PaymentsAmazon Go will obviously disrupt retail. However I do not think Amazon will go too far with retail stores. Of course there will be many of them. However I think that Amazon wants to be to be the AWS (Amazon Web Services) [7] for retail stores. Amazon already convinced online retailers to trust them with AWS for their web hosting and today a vast majority of commerce sites use this service. Additionally >65% of sales at Amazon are via small merchants where Amazon is simply fulfilling and billing for the transaction.Amazon’s long term goal is to be the technology supplier for all online and retail commerce. It seem clear to me that Amazon will license this technology to small and large retailers just as they have licensed AWS technology. Payment companies, both young and legacy, along with merchants both online and retail will need to vastly adjust their business models. If not, they will be obsoleted. Thus far not a single young or legacy payment company is positioned to take advantage of the shifts that are taking place, and it will be a hard road ahead. This will begin and end with payment companies. Astute founders and VCs that work with me, knew these details over a decade ago. Gordy Howe, the legendary hockey player, said “The secret to success in hockey is not being where he puck is, it is being where the puck is going to be”. Some will be left standing flat footed and astonished.Cashiers In The Future, There Will Be Less But Not For A Long TimeThe Bureau of Labor Statistics says that cashiers are the second-largest occupation, with 3.5 million employed in the U.S.Amazon is pursuing the grocery and convenience store business, which represents about 17 percent of total U.S. retail, or nearly $800 billion.I presented the idea that Amazon is very likely going to license the technology around Amazon Go to other retailers (with some limitations) just as they created the AWS service for websites for just about every major retailer. AWS is the largest service of this kind and the most profitable part of the business.On the arc of 10 years one can assume that directly Amazon may impact at minimum 10% of the ~3.5 million cashiers. However it is clear other companies will cobble together perhaps a less advanced version from Amazon Go and likely also impact the number of cashiers employed.In the worse case one can conclude that on the 10 year arc up to 50% of the jobs could be impacted. On the other hand there will be an increase in workers to maintain these systems, albeit not nearly as many jobs will be created. Additionally, there may be a bit of a rebellion on a local scale that may crave a human and person touch.Thus on the 10 year arc there will be jobs lost to the cashier worker category. However It took three decades for ATM Machines to even slightly impact the number of Bank Tellers.A Hybrid Of Everything Amazon Learned OnlineAmazon Go is the hybrid of many technologies and ideas that started with the very first website Amazon created. When Jeff Bezos invented and patented the 1-click shopping experience, that Apple licensed later, few could imagine it could come to retail stores. It is the paramount amalgamation of:1-click-like web shopping in retailPowerful App using location based servicesQR Code IDsIntegrated PaymentImage RecognitionMultiple Sensor TechnologyArtificial IntelligenceMachine LearningThese ideas are not entirely new. IBM spoke to this in the mid 2000s centered around RFID technology. Although Amazon is not using RFID to any material level at Amazon Go stores, it is a foretelling of the future of retail from IBM:Specimen: IBM RFID video.Amazon Go Is Part Of The Voice First RevolutionAmazon is also pioneering in Voice First systems like Alexa. Voice First systems will become the best selling items sold during the holiday shopping season of 2016 at Amazon. There is no doubt Amazon will integrate Alexa into the shopping experience at Amazon Go stores [7]. I have written in detail about this new modality I call Voice Commerce and Voice Payments [8]. This is all an expansion of what I call the Voice First revolution.Specimen: Amazon Go architectural side levations showing solar cell covered parking structures for order pickup.An Amazon Voice Commerce transaction will begin simply by asking an Amazon Echo device to order the items for local pickup. This will include typical items found in the store including prepared food items for lunch and dinner. Amazon Go stores will have 8–10 parking spaces for the customer to park [9]. The Amazon App will automatically detect the customer has arrived at the store and a clerk will either deliver to the driver side or load the items into the trunk.Specimen: John Wanamaker’s location circa 1921.Shopping Returns To Where It BeganWhen John Wanamaker invented the retail buying experience in 1861 at Oak Hall, at Sixth and Market Streets in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania he could not have imagined the arc it would take. History will record today Jeff Bezos, our century’s John Wanamaker, just about invented web commerce and now is reinventing retail commerce.We have traveled so very far to come back to where it all started.Specimen: Jeff Bezos displaying happiness.[0] United States Patent: 5960411[1] Amazon.com: : Amazon Go[2] Brian Roemmele's answer to When during the Industrial Revolution did fixed price tags first appear?[3] United States Patent Application: 0150019391[4] United States Patent Application: 0150012396[5] Image Recognition Startup SnapTell Acquired by Amazon Subsidiary A9.com[6] Amazon Puts Image Recognition Into Its Main iOS App – Prepare To Be Even More Showroomed, Retailers[7] Brian Roemmele's answer to Where does Brian Roemmele see Amazon moving next in payments (after building a 'Square killer’)? and Brian Roemmele's answer to Why does Amazon's Alexa team need 1000 people?[8] There is A Revolution Ahead and It Has A Voice[9] Exclusive: Amazon planning drive-up grocery stores with first coming to Sunnyvale — sources - Silicon Valley Business Journal

I wrote this last year (Brian Roemmele's answer to What is the Amazon Go Store, the new retail shopping experience and why is it important?). This is exactly why Amazon will acquire Whole Foods and other businesses including quick service food businesses.I started publicly using a term I coined in 1977: Voice Commerce. Over the years I took a healthy share of skeptics, deniers and ridicule. Today I still get this stuff but today Harvard Business Review has moved over to our side. Today Harvard Business Review in its analysis of Amazon's acquisition of Whole Foods presented the fundamental reason for the acquisition: #VoiceCommerce. Here is an excerpt:What Does Whole Foods Get from Amazon? Alexa, for Starters“If you are Whole Foods, you want to own Alexa. Buying groceries sight unseen from Alexa might not sound immediately appealing — but Whole Foods’s brand engenders trust in the products it sells. I’d order pretty much any kind of food from Alexa sight unseen if I knew it was coming from Whole Foods.….If Amazon and Whole Foods are able to find the right recipe, it will be Alexa that provides it.”What Does Whole Foods Get from Amazon? Alexa, for StartersThus with this confirmation from Harvard Business, here is what I wrote last year on Amazon Go Store and the reasons Amazon was building this mini Whole Foods:“Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic”—Authur C. ClarkeJust 1-click And The “Self Driving” StoreIt was a cold day at Amazon headquarters on September 12th, 1997. Jeff Bezos was nervous as he submitted a new and unique patent to the USTPO called “Method and system for placing a purchase order via a communications network “ [0]. This came to be known as the Amazon 1-click patent and a few years later it was licensed by Apple for their websites and later iTunes. It defined the web experience since.“Shop And Just Walk Out”—Amazon, 2016Amazon just invented the one click buying experience for retail.Specimen: Front elevation of a typical Amazon Go retail store.Today, December 5th, 2016 Amazon announced the Amazon Go Store[1] a new shopping experience that fundamentally changes the very fabric of shopping and payments at the same time. Amazon has combined decades of research with artificial intelligence and machine learning along with image recognition. They have combined all of the knowledge that they've gained from the one click buying experience and brought this to the retail store.In 1861 John Wanamaker invented the way we currently shop [2]. Today Amazon just reinvented the entire retail and payments experience. It is a store with no credit card machines or cash registers, just AI. Amazon is using the same technology that can be found in the life-saving aspects of self-driving cars, in the Amazon Go Store. It is very powerful technology.Specimen: Amazon Go retail store video demonstration.Amazon Go Ends Check Out Lines And Cash RegistersIt’s called "just walk out" technology and when you walk out, your purchase is complete with a receipt in your app, charged to your Amazon account. This is achieved by an entryway that is similar to the subway turnstiles that you see in major cities. Yes this sounds like magic, retail magic.Specimen: Of the subway turnstile entrance area for the Amazon Go retail store.Specimen: Of the QR code used to enter the Amazon Go retail store.Specimen: Of a cell phone scan to enter the Amazon Go retail store.A smartphone with the app installed is required to enter the store via presenting a barcode to a sensor. This barcode scan (along with other sensor technology eg: GPS, etc) tracks that you have entered the store, identifies you're moving through the store and then identifies the product you pick up. To complete your shopping experience just walk out the door. Yes, that’s it. The image recognition combined with a sensor fusion of technologies has already confirmed your order and totalled it up. All billed to your future Amazon Bank Card, but currently to the payment card you have on file with them, the nearing 1 billion payment cards they have on file.Specimen: Of the automatic shopping cart in the Amazon app for the Amazon Go retail store.Specimen: Of a customer leaving the Amazon Go retail store.Specimen: Of a customer verifying a receipt for the Amazon Go retail store.The End Of Shoplifting?This Amazon magic is all achieved through a number of very advanced technologies. The most fundamental is the use of hundreds of image sensing cameras. Using advanced artificial intelligence and machine learning, Amazon can detect a product that is not only missing from the shelves, Being held in your hands, put into a bag, or even under a shirt. Yes, Amazon has solved shoplifting almost entirely.Specimen: Some of the sensor technology at the Amazon Go retail store.Members Only, No Cash Or Credit Cards AcceptedAmazon is fundamentally changing everything we thought we knew about retail sales. They have merged AI and ML data science that they just about invented for online sales and meshed it for a unique retail buying experience. The ideas here are familiar and can be found at play at Apple stores when using the Apple store App and self check out. Amazon took it to the highest degree, there is no self check out. Like a buying club or Costco store, you have to be an Amazon Prime member to complete a transaction. In fact they don’t accept cash or payment cards in the store, there are no credit card machines and there are no cash registers or POS systems. This is the beginning of the end of the POS system.Custom Real-Time Coupons And Discounts Based On Prior And Current BehaviorJust like when you visit a website and you are logged in, the Amazon Go shopping experience is tracking all of your shopping behaviors. Over time this will inform Amazon on the exact placement of products and how consumers may interact with them. Machine Learning about the amount of time spent in the store and the transverse path you make through the store will assist Amazon in creating customized, on demand discounts related to your current or prior buying behavior. Some may find this a bit troubling to be watched to closely while shopping in a retail store. However live video cameras and real-time AI systems have been used for years. The Las Vegas Casinos have bene expert at trailblazing this technology to spot banned gamblers and/or cheats.The Tale Of Two PatentsThose of you have been following me on Quora know that I have been talking about Amazon entering into not only retail selling but online and retail payments. I wrote that at some point in time Amazon would become the AWS for payments both retail and online just like they became the AWS for web services. There were several things that allowed me to understand just how this would happen. In two patents filed on June 26th, 2013 Amazon cited “Detecting item interaction and movement” [3] and on September 24, 2014 cited “Transitioning items from the materials handling facility” [4] . Both of these patents telegraphed the future that has now arrived in Amazon Go.Initially these Amazon patents seem to be related only to a use case inside of warehouses or fulfillment centers. However the insights I had in 2013 suggested Amazon was seeking to patent a product that duplicates the one click buying experience that they have mastered on the Internet now applied for a retail store.The “Detecting item interaction and movement” patent is about as close as you get to what Amazon Go is doing today. Here are some of the patent’s embodiments:If the user enters or passes through a transition area, such as a rebin station, another inventory location, pack station, shipping, exit from the materials handling facility, etc., the items identified on the item identifier list may be transitioned. Because the items have already been identified, the transition may be done automatically without any affirmative input from the user or delay to the user. For example, if the user, such as a shipping agent, is exiting the materials handling facility with the items, the user will pass through a transition area (such as a loading door, a door exiting the materials handling facility, etc.) as they exit the materials handling facility. When the user enters or passes through the transition area, the items identified on the item identifier list are automatically transitioned from the materials handling facility to the user. Continuing with the above example, the items may be automatically transitioned from the materials handling facility to the shipping agent in response to a determination that the shipping agent has passed through the transition area. As another example, if the transition area is a rebin station within the materials handling facility, the items may be transitioned from the original storage location to the rebin station. As still another example, if the materials handling facility is a retail location and the customer is purchasing items, when the customer passes through the exit (transition area) of the retail location, the items picked by the user may be automatically transitioned from the materials handling facility to the user and the user may be charged a fee for the items. In a similar manner, if the materials handling facility is a rental location, a library, etc., the transition area may be near the exit of the facility. When the user leaves with items, the items are transitioned from the materials handling facility to the user that is taking the items. In such a case, a rental or borrow time identifying when the items are to be returned may be associated with the items and the user. The transition of the items may be done automatically and without any affirmative input or delay to the user. For example, if the user is purchasing items from a retail location, rather than the user having to stop and "check out" with a cashier, teller or automated check station, because the picked items are already known and identified on an item identifier list associated with the user, the user may simply exit the retail location with the items. The exit of the user will be detected and, as the user passes through the exit (transition area), the user, without having to stop or otherwise be delayed, will automatically be charged a fee for the items (the items are transitioned to the user).Here is the patent’s abstract:AbstractThis disclosure describes a system for tracking removal or placement of items at inventory locations with a materials handling facility. In some instances, a user may remove an item from an inventory location and the inventory management system may detect that removal and update a user item list associated with the user to include an item identifier representative of the removed item. Likewise, if the user places an item at an inventory location, the inventory management system may detect that placement and update the user item list to remove an item identifier representative of the placed item.Specimen: Amazon patent.The “Transitioning items from the materials handling facility” patent also showsAbstractThis disclosure describes a system for automatically transitioning items from a materials handling facility without delaying a user as they exit the materials handling facility. For example, while a user is located in a materials handling facility, the user may pick one or more items. The items are identified and automatically associated with the user at or near the time of the item pick. When the users enters and/or passes through a transition area, the picked items are automatically transitioned to the user without affirmative input from or delay to the user.Here are some of the patent’s embodiments:By detecting the removal and/or placement of items by users in the materials handling facility, the movement of items within and exiting the materials handling facility may be accomplished without requiring the user to undergo additional transition of the items. For example, if the materials handling facility is a retail store, users may pick items from within the facility, place the items in a cart, bag, pocket, or otherwise carry the items and the items are automatically identified and associated with the user. When the user exits the facility the items may be transitioned from the facility to the user and the user charged for the items. This may be done without the user having to undergo the additional step of checking out with a cashier, the cashier identifying and scanning each item and the user paying the cashier for the item.Specimen: Amazon patent.It is clear Amazon thought about this for over 4 years and perfected the use case inside of their own warehouses. Quite unknown and unseen by many is how Amazon cross confirmed the ML and AI based image recognition they pioneered.In 2009 The Image Recognition Technology Seed Was PlantedThis goes way back to 2009 and the acquisition of SnapTell [5] by Amazon. They developed image recognition technology that could identify a huge number of popular products just by their images. This technology was absorbed by Amazon’s very private “Bell Labs of this century” labs. By 2014 Amazon integrated this technology in its app for what has become known as “showrooming” [6]. This allows consumers to visit a local store, take a picture of a product and instantly get a price comparison. It has since been de-emphasized.Specimen: Amazon image recognition system used in the Amazon app.The End Goal Is To Be AWS For Retailers And PaymentsAmazon Go will obviously disrupt retail. However I do not think Amazon will go too far with retail stores. Of course there will be many of them. However I think that Amazon wants to be to be the AWS (Amazon Web Services) [7] for retail stores. Amazon already convinced online retailers to trust them with AWS for their web hosting and today a vast majority of commerce sites use this service. Additionally >65% of sales at Amazon are via small merchants where Amazon is simply fulfilling and billing for the transaction.Amazon’s long term goal is to be the technology supplier for all online and retail commerce. It seem clear to me that Amazon will license this technology to small and large retailers just as they have licensed AWS technology. Payment companies, both young and legacy, along with merchants both online and retail will need to vastly adjust their business models. If not, they will be obsoleted. Thus far not a single young or legacy payment company is positioned to take advantage of the shifts that are taking place, and it will be a hard road ahead. This will begin and end with payment companies. Astute founders and VCs that work with me, knew these details over a decade ago. Gordy Howe, the legendary hockey player, said “The secret to success in hockey is not being where he puck is, it is being where the puck is going to be”. Some will be left standing flat footed and astonished.Cashiers In The Future, There Will Be Less But Not For A Long TimeThe Bureau of Labor Statistics says that cashiers are the second-largest occupation, with 3.5 million employed in the U.S.Amazon is pursuing the grocery and convenience store business, which represents about 17 percent of total U.S. retail, or nearly $800 billion.I presented the idea that Amazon is very likely going to license the technology around Amazon Go to other retailers (with some limitations) just as they created the AWS service for websites for just about every major retailer. AWS is the largest service of this kind and the most profitable part of the business.On the arc of 10 years one can assume that directly Amazon may impact at minimum 10% of the ~3.5 million cashiers. However it is clear other companies will cobble together perhaps a less advanced version from Amazon Go and likely also impact the number of cashiers employed.In the worse case one can conclude that on the 10 year arc up to 50% of the jobs could be impacted. On the other hand there will be an increase in workers to maintain these systems, albeit not nearly as many jobs will be created. Additionally, there may be a bit of a rebellion on a local scale that may crave a human and person touch.Thus on the 10 year arc there will be jobs lost to the cashier worker category. However It took three decades for ATM Machines to even slightly impact the number of Bank Tellers.A Hybrid Of Everything Amazon Learned OnlineAmazon Go is the hybrid of many technologies and ideas that started with the very first website Amazon created. When Jeff Bezos invented and patented the 1-click shopping experience, that Apple licensed later, few could imagine it could come to retail stores. It is the paramount amalgamation of:1-click-like web shopping in retailPowerful App using location based servicesQR Code IDsIntegrated PaymentImage RecognitionMultiple Sensor TechnologyArtificial IntelligenceMachine LearningThese ideas are not entirely new. IBM spoke to this in the mid 2000s centered around RFID technology. Although Amazon is not using RFID to any material level at Amazon Go stores, it is a foretelling of the future of retail from IBM:Specimen: IBM RFID video.Amazon Go Is Part Of The Voice First RevolutionAmazon is also pioneering in Voice First systems like Alexa. Voice First systems will become the best selling items sold during the holiday shopping season of 2016 at Amazon. There is no doubt Amazon will integrate Alexa into the shopping experience at Amazon Go stores [7]. I have written in detail about this new modality I call Voice Commerce and Voice Payments [8]. This is all an expansion of what I call the Voice First revolution.Specimen: Amazon Go architectural side levations showing solar cell covered parking structures for order pickup.An Amazon Voice Commerce transaction will begin simply by asking an Amazon Echo device to order the items for local pickup. This will include typical items found in the store including prepared food items for lunch and dinner. Amazon Go stores will have 8–10 parking spaces for the customer to park [9]. The Amazon App will automatically detect the customer has arrived at the store and a clerk will either deliver to the driver side or load the items into the trunk.Specimen: John Wanamaker’s location circa 1921.Shopping Returns To Where It BeganWhen John Wanamaker invented the retail buying experience in 1861 at Oak Hall, at Sixth and Market Streets in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania he could not have imagined the arc it would take. History will record today Jeff Bezos, our century’s John Wanamaker, just about invented web commerce and now is reinventing retail commerce.We have traveled so very far to come back to where it all started.Specimen: Jeff Bezos displaying happiness.[0] United States Patent: 5960411[1] Amazon.com: : Amazon Go[2] Brian Roemmele's answer to When during the Industrial Revolution did fixed price tags first appear?[3] United States Patent Application: 0150019391[4] United States Patent Application: 0150012396[5] Image Recognition Startup SnapTell Acquired by Amazon Subsidiary A9.com[6] Amazon Puts Image Recognition Into Its Main iOS App – Prepare To Be Even More Showroomed, Retailers[7] Brian Roemmele's answer to Where does Brian Roemmele see Amazon moving next in payments (after building a 'Square killer’)? and Brian Roemmele's answer to Why does Amazon's Alexa team need 1000 people?[8] There is A Revolution Ahead and It Has A Voice[9] Exclusive: Amazon planning drive-up grocery stores with first coming to Sunnyvale — sources - Silicon Valley Business Journal

Startups 101: How to Create a Business PlanThe first thing you need to do is create an executive summary and a mission statement.After that, you need to study your market, compare yourself to your competition, create a share structure, outline financials, and fill out the rest of the pertinent data like the other people suggest.Below is an example of the last executive summary and mission statement that I created for a company I was planning to launch earlier this year.Since I own the company, wrote this from scratch, and decided that I will not be launching this product, I decided to share. (Yes, it is heavily focused on marketing, but that's my primary expertise, if I'm even somewhat good at it... Who in the world knows...)I worked with a Product CEO and operated as the COO at this company and recruited a highly talented team, however the Product CEO decided to part ways so we scrapped the business.Also, you may not want to make a public benefit company unless you already have investors you can turn to for sure who don't care what kind of business you own. If you are seeking to raise money from venture capital, then it is highly unlikely that they will invest into your model.1.0 EXECUTIVE SUMMARYCompany Name | Tagline | An American Public Benefit Company Founded in February of 2013, (“SE”) features contemporary women’s fashions specializing in comfort, fit and sexiness, established by a diverse group of individuals, led by the C.E.O. Ms. Lee.SE holds idealistic aspirations of giving back to the underprivileged, creates American Jobs and gives back to the community, while keeping the clientele engaged through social interactionsSE provides:• A Philanthropic Vision.• Patriotism.• Quality Clothing.• Best Styles for women of the 21st Century.• Quality Content.• An Interactive Community.SE’s innovative design and marketing team constructs visionary product campaigns and strategies, designed to push SE to the forefront of the industry.Derived from the fictional character, Sophia Serrano, from the film Open Your Eyes, SE’s inspiration is characterized by Sophia’s radiant qualities of being: positive, down-to earth, original, mysterious, sexy, and guileless in a perfect world.Sophia is the “ideal” woman because not only is she divine in nature, she is able to cope through the greatest obstacles that obstruct her from her path. Simultaneously, Sophia is so unique, she makes a man follow her into the afterlife of his dreams. Not only did she (tagline) in the real world, she left him in need of her in the afterlife.SE wants other fashion brands and the world to know that everyone in this world matters, no matter your race, ethnicity, financial background or country of origin.SE empowers people to make a difference by:• Helping the Underprivileged Children of America.• Creating American Jobs.• Providing a more Eco-Friendly environment.All of SE’s products are made in the United States, providing more opportunities to influence economic growth.SE ensures no usable fabric goes to waste by collecting all the scraps of fabrics and donating the items to (charity), with the sole intent to create exclusive items, blankets, or articles of clothing for the less fortunate. In addition, SE donates 10% of all sales to (charity) , to help feed, clothe, and provide shelter for the less fortunate.SE plans to take a creative approach to branding and marketing the company.Not only will SE use traditional methods of marketing, such as mailing clothes to celebrities, look books to bloggers and editors, buying editorial spots, sponsoring events, and advertising online, SE will take grass root efforts to the next level in attracting hits to the website, along with social media to keep the clientele engaged.Sending celebrities, fashion editors and bloggers free gifts never guarantees the promotion of an item, so SE has decided to implement a revenue sharing program with its clothing. Each individual influencer will have a personalized URL to direct their clients to SE’s website. Each purchase made within thirty days by the referral of an “influencer” will generate an earnings check of $25 to the referrer. Checks will be cut once the accumulated balance reaches $300, or can be exchanged to store credit.SE will seek out make up artists, photographers, stylists, and other professionals within the fashion industry to provide an opportunity to earn an extra source of income through its revenue sharing program. SE will also provide clothing to stylists, to have featured in editorial along with video content.SE’s grassroots efforts will take place in the form of carefully selected event sponsorships. Through event sponsorships, models will be showcased wearing the SE product through a trade booth. SE will take pictures of celebrities who try on the products and feature blog posts through social media efforts of the celebrities, while distributing the highly sought out images to fashion bloggers. SE will then pass out $10 SE Clothing Branded Gift Cards to people who fit the role of the target consumer of the brand at the event. Initially, 50,000 gift cards will be made for distribution within the first year, of which we expect at least 25,000 to visit the website URL.SE will implement a referral based program, where if a friend is referred to purchase an item through the SE website through their email or social media link within 30 days, the customer will have the choice to have one of the following occur:• $25 will be credited to the referrer’s account for Future Purchases.• $25 will be donated to the referrer’s Charity of Choice.The referee will also receive $10 credited off their first purchase. Studies indicate that 1 out of every 3 customers will refer their friends to a site that they trust and enjoy.SE will partner with publishers and affiliates such as Google Affiliate, Commission Junction, Avantlink, Affiliate Window, Webgains, Pepperjam, Integrate, Etc. to allow professionals to earn a profit by referring their clientele to purchase items from SE.In order to create better organic SEO (Search Engine Optimization) results to guide more online traffic to the website, SE will carry lines of both popular name brand and up-and-coming American Made products by other designers, such as Nasty Gal, Diesel, Ralph Lauren, Armani, Etc. In order to acquire the product necessary, SE will create a strategic partnership with its manufacturer to sell their excess inventory.Once new customers visit the SE site, they will be given an opportunity to register on the site to claim their $10 credit. Through registration, information such as the customer’s name, email address, phone number, address, and social media profiles will be gathered.Once the customer registers, they will be able to access the site. A welcome email will be sent to the customer within one day, welcoming them to the site. Within 5-7 business days, a letter stating SE’s appreciation of the customer with an outline of the brand’s philanthropic vision will be physically mailed to the customer on company letterhead and hand signed by the C.E.O., Ms. Lee. The customer will then be emailed, informing them that their gift card will expire in 30 days, 3 weeks, 15 days, 7 days, 3 days, 2 days, and a final offer email. This cycle will repeat for another 30 days for a total of 60 days, which will trigger a sense of urgency within purchasing an item within the allotted timeframe.SE will engage with customers by providing the first few sentences of educational content through email, while providing links to the blogging section of the website to read the full article, along with social media efforts on Pinterest, Facebook, Twitter, DeviantART, Tumblr, Google+, Polyvore, Wanelo, Quora, Lyst, Etc. to build trust with the clientele, and keep them engaged with the brand. SE will track user activity through analytic services provided by Kissmetrics to measure which campaigns work best, to better understand our audience.SE will influence increases in transaction sizes by donating one item to charity for every $300 spent in a single transaction. Not only would revenues increase, the philanthropic vision would accelerate to creating a bigger influence to society, which in turn will create a better image for the brand.SE will have a section on the site where users can upload images of their new purchases, how they pair their outfits, provide feedback to others, and like other consumer’s styles, creating an engaged society of buyers who become advocates and prosumers of the brand.SE will begin sales on the retail website, then slowly trickle into many online boutique stores, physical boutique stores, then into major department stores. Since bulk purchases from vendors decrease manufacturing costs, the business model is extremely scalable. As SE becomes a more established brand, price increases will be implemented in 10% increments per season, increasing profit margins while manufacturing costs decrease.SE will create separate databases for consumers who have at least purchased one item and another database for loyal consumers. In regard to the database of consumers who have purchased, collateral material providing a promo code for a promotional discount will physically be mailed to the clients two weeks prior to an anniversary or holiday sale, to provide exclusive access to the promotion. SE will randomly select users from the loyal consumer database to provide a free gift with purchase, expedited or free shipping, and various other promotional tools to reward brand loyalty.Once SE establishes a loyal client base, verticals will be integrated one product at a time in minimal quantities, initially to test the market to see how well the product does. Verticals will range from products such as cosmetics, shoes, handbags, hats, stockings, scarves, jewelry, and other womenswear based products.Led by C.E.O. Ms. Lee, SE has hand selected a managerial team of 8 creative unique individuals to grasp a portion of the $500+ billion dollar market by creating quality content, negotiating with vendors, managing finances, and laying out the long term growth of the company, all while creating beautiful product.10 years from now, in the year 2023, SE plans to be acquired by LVMH, PPR, Richemont, Valentino Fashion Group, The Aeffe Group, Puig, Diesel, Phillips-Van Huesen, Hermes, Liz Claiborne, Inditex, The Arcadia Group, or Aurora Fashion for a strike price of $300 million. SE is currently seeking seed financing in the amount of $275,000 to be used to cover manufacturing, marketing, legal and operational expenses to establish the brand.MISSION STATEMENTUnited together, SE’s commitments to society are as follows:#1. To Mother Earth:We vow to make sure that no usable fabric is wasted. All usable scrap material will be recycled into specialty items, blankets or created into articles of clothing for the less fortunate.#2. To Our Nation:We vow to Shop American. We vow to only manufacture our product in America. We are creating American jobs and doing our part in rebuilding the American economy.#3. To Our World:We vow to take a stance against child labor. We take a stance against the Chinese sweatshops with hazardous work conditions.#4. To The Less Fortunate:We vow to provide food, clothing, and shelter for children who are unable to take care of themselves, especially the ones right here at home.#5. To Our Customers:We vow to make sure you feel beautiful and (tagline). We vow to create the sexiest, most reliable products made from the best material we can find. We will provide the best fit possible. We will listen to your opinions and make decisions based off of your feedback. Your voice will be heard.#6. To Our Design PartnersWe vow to provide our client base accessibility to your designs to increase your exposure in the market place. Whether you are a small designer who is just beginning or an established brand, there is a place here for you to showcase your items, as long as the product is manufactured here in America.#7. To Our Employees:We vow to bring the jobs back home and provide fair wages. We vow to provide a fun and friendly stress-free work environment.#8. To Our Shareholders:We vow to provide you a seat on our board. We vow to listen to your expertise. We vow to provide returns in a timely manner. We vow to fulfill your philanthropic vision.Oh, it might be in your best interest to include a mind map as well.The first five pages should include the following information:BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT PLANMARCH 2013****** CONFIDENTIALITY & DISCLOSURE NOTICE ******IMPORTANT: This document is for information purposes only and sent at your request and is covered by the Electronic Communications Privacy Act 18 U.S.C. 2510‐2521. This is neither a solicitation of investment nor an offer to sell and/or buy securities. This communication may contain non‐public, private, confidential or legally privileged information and documents intended for the sole use of the designated recipient(s). The unlawful interception, use or disclosure of such information is strictly prohibited under the applicable laws of the U.S.A. and the State of Nevada. Any review, retransmission, dissemination or other use of, or taking of any action in reliance upon this information by persons/entities other than the intended recipient is prohibited. If you received this document and / or a transmission of this document in error, delete any electronic copies of this document and / or return this document to (Name, Address)CONFIDENTIALITY & DISCLOSURE NOTICEIMPORTANT: This document is for information purposes only and sent at your request and is covered by the Electronic Communications Privacy Act 18 U.S.C. 2510-2521. This is neither a solicitation of investment nor an offer to sell and/or buy securities. This communication may contain non-public, private, confidential or legally privileged information and documents intended for the sole use of the designated recipient(s). The unlawful interception, use or disclosure of such information is strictly prohibited under the applicable laws of the U.S.A. and the State of California. Any review, retransmission, dissemination or other use of, or taking of any action in reliance upon this information by persons/entities other than the intended recipient is prohibited. If you received this document and / or a transmission of this document in error, delete any electronic copies of this document and / or return this document to (Name, Address)CONFIDENTIALITY AGREEMENTThe undersigned reader acknowledges that the information provided within this Business Development Plan (“BDP”) is confidential; therefore, reader agrees not to disclose it without the express written permission of SE.It is acknowledged by reader that information to be furnished in this BDP is in all respects confidential in nature, other than information which is in the public domain through other means and that any disclosure or use of same by reader, may cause serious harm or damage to SE and other sources identified herein. The information, estimates and projections contained herein have been prepared by SE in good faith and on a basis believed to be reasonable; such estimates and projections involve significant elements of subjective judgment and analysis. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, can be made as to the accuracy or completeness of such information, and nothing contained in this BDP is, or shall be relied upon as, a promise or representation as to the past or the future. This BDP is submitted in connection with the evaluation of a potential transaction and may not be reproduced or used, in whole or in part, for any other purpose.Upon request, this document is to be immediately returned SE,.___________________Signature___________________Name (typed or printed)___________________DateThis is a Business Development Plan. It does not imply an offering of securitiesFORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTThis document may contain certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, including, but not limited to, statements as to future operating results and plans that involve risks and uncertainties. We use words such as “expects”, “anticipates”, “believes”, “estimates”, the negative of these terms and similar expressions to identify forward looking statements. Such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of the Company to differ materially from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by those projected in the forward-looking statements for any reason. References herein to “the Company,” “we,” “our,” “us” and similar words or phrases are references to SE, and/or its subsidiaries, unless the context otherwise requires.CONTACT INFORMATIONInquiries may be directed to the appropriate party below:Leonard KimCOOSEAddress:Phone:Fax:Email:The Table of contents should include the following information that no one, aside from analysts read:TABLE OF CONTENTS1.0 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY1.1 OBJECTIVES1.2 MISSION1.3 KEYS TO SUCCESS2.0 COMPANY SUMMARY2.1 CAPITALIZATION SUMMARY2.2 COMPANY LOCATIONS AND FACILITIES.3.0 PRODUCTS AND SERVICES3.1 THE SE TECHNOLOGY3.2 COMPETITIVE COMPARISON3.3 MARKETING MATERIAL3.4 TECHNOLOGY FULFILLMENT3.5 FUTURE PRODUCTS AND SERVICES4.0 MARKET ANALYSIS SUMMARY4.1 MARKET SEGMENTATION4.2 TARGET MARKET SEGMENT STRATEGY4.2.1 MARKET NEEDS4.2.2 MARKET TRENDS4.2.3 MARKET GROWTH4.3 SERVICE BUSINESS ANALYSIS4.3.1 BUSINESS PARTICIPANTS4.3.2 DISTRIBUTING A PRODUCT4.3.3 MAIN COMPETITORS5.0 WEB PLAN SUMMARY5.1 WEBSITE MARKETING STRATEGY5.2 DEVELOPMENT REQUIREMENTS6.0 STRATEGY AND IMPLEMENTATION SUMMARY6.1 SWOT ANALYSIS6.1.1 STRENGTHS6.1.2 WEAKNESSES6.1.3 OPPORTUNITIES6.1.4 THREATS6.2 STRATEGY PYRAMID6.3 VALUE PROPOSITION6.4 COMPETITIVE EDGE6.5 MARKETING STRATEGY SUMMARY6.5.1 POSITIONING STATEMENT6.5.2 PRICING STRATEGY6.6 SALES STRATEGY6.6.1 SALES FORECAST6.7 MILESTONES7.0 MANAGEMENT SUMMARY7.1 ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE7.2 MANAGEMENT TEAM7.3 MANAGEMENT TEAM GAPS7.4 PERSONNEL PLAN8.0 FINANCIAL PLAN8.1 START-UP FUNDING8.2 KEY FINANCIAL INDICATORS8.3 BREAK-EVEN ANALYSIS8.4 PROJECTED PROFIT AND LOSS8.5 PROJECTED CASH FLOW8.6 PROJECTED BALANCE SHEET8.7 BUSINESS RATIOS8.8 THE INVESTMENT OFFERING8.9 VALUATION8.10 USE OF FUNDS9.0 APPENDICESTABLE: SALES FORECASTTABLE: PROFIT AND LOSSTABLE: PROFIT AND LOSSTABLE: CASH FLOWTABLE: CASH FLOWTABLE: BALANCE SHEETIf you're using a business plan to try to attain a loan for a small business... I took a different business plan for a nightlife company, brought a cofounder with a 680 credit score, and went to Long Beach SBDC and they helped me get approved for a loan from a credit union for $30,000 two years ago. The whole process took less than a week, since we already had our business plan finished prior to showing up. We ended up not taking the loan because our programmer ran off with the money we had paid him prior without delivering our technology.There are Small Business Development Centers, sponsored by the Small Business Association, all across the United States that will help you make a business plan for free, read it, and even shop it out for business loans.If you're using a business plan to attain financing from an Angel Investor or VC, then all that matters is your executive summary and your slideshow. I mean, you still need the other data filled in, but these are the only two areas of which they put their main focus on. However, a lot of investors use two financial analysts to carefully go over every detail within a business plan prior to investing their own cash. So, the fine details are pretty important regardless of what anyone else says.Also, if you need to know how to split equity with your startup, read more here: How much equity do you give early employees when the company is bootstrapped?Read more at my blog: Startups 101: How to Create a Business Plan