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PDF Editor FAQ

As a baseball player (current or former), would you prefer balls and strikes to be called by a "robo-ump" computer?

I played Division III college baseball in the United States and professional baseball in Sweden.As a kid, I always dreamed about playing on better fields. When I was in high school, my teams sometimes played on Division I college fields or even minor league fields.Those games were always a treat. No bad hops from pebbles in the infield dirt or a lip on the edge of the grass. No sun in the batter’s eyes because the field was pointed in the wrong direction. No divots or puddles in the outfield.In other words, environments that allowed every player to perform to the best of his ability and prevented extraneous circumstances from influencing the outcome of a game.I think most baseball players share this desire. We don’t want chance occurrences or someone else’s mistake to make us look bad or cost us a game.But mention a standardized strike zone, where balls are always called balls and strikes are always called strikes, where the batter and pitcher know what to expect every time they take the field, where no one other than the players can influence the outcome of a game, and a lot of baseball players and fans balk at the idea.They say a uniform strike zone would remove the human element from the game. They say calling balls and strikes is an art, not a science. They say it would ruin the flow of the game. They say it would eliminate some unspecified nuance of the game.I think what these naysayers really object to is that the idea of a standardized strike zone seems to violate the traditional aspects of the game.And yes, it’s hard to imagine a beautiful summer day, a clear blue sky, fresh green grass, the crack of the bat, the roar of the crowd... and R2-D2 beeping and warbling ball and strike calls behind home plate.But that’s not what a robot umpire would be like.Major League Baseball began implementing a technology called PITCHf/x thirteen years ago. It tracks the speed and trajectory of pitches. You see it every time you watch a baseball game on TV and a graphic shows shows how a pitch traveled toward the catcher and whether or not it caught the strike zone. Major League Baseball also uses this technology to evaluate its umpires.In all likelihood, it is this technology that would form the basis of a uniform strike zone. A human umpire would stand behind home plate, just as he does now. But instead of the umpire judging each pitch a ball or strike, that call would be made by PITCHf/x and relayed to the umpire.The human umpire would still say, “Ball,” “Strike,” “You’re out,” or “Take your base.” He would still call foul balls, hit batters and plays at the plate.The game wouldn’t look any different than it has for over one hundred years. The only difference is that every pitch that passes through the strike zone would be called a strike, and every pitch that does not would be called a ball.The game would still be played by human players, with human umpires standing behind the plate and around the infield.To those who claim calling balls and strikes is an art, not a science, I say it doesn’t matter. If a pitch passes through the strike zone, it’s a strike and should be called a strike. The point is to get the call right, and a standardized strike zone would do that.The flow of the game would not change. Pitch tracking technology would judge each pitch a ball or strike, that information would get relayed to the home plate umpire, and the umpire would announce the call. It would happen as fast as you see the strike zone graphic appear on your TV with every pitch.Every tradition and nuance of baseball would remain intact, except for the nuance of human umpires occasionally calling balls strikes and strikes balls. That’s not a tradition any more than pebbles in the infield are a tradition.By the time baseball players reach the majors, they’ve grown out of frequent bad hops and sun in the batter’s eyes. Let’s grow out of missed ball and strike calls too.

Where does the word umpire come from? Is it specific to only sports?

Umpire is both a noun and a verb. One can be an umpire (referee,) and one can judge something. Americans know the word mostly associated with baseball, but umpire is also used in the military referring to an officer charged with evaluating how troop maneuvers. The word was originally borrowed (in a different form) from the French and has been in use since the 15th century.

What is it like being a professional sports gambler?

I will take a shot at this. I cleared around $80k from sports last year and will probably make low 6 figs this year having already made close to that already. Sports is not the only form of advantage gambling I'm involved in at this point and I think this is true for a lot of pro sports gamblers except for those at the very top, who are running syndicates who bet 6-7 figs per game.There are really three ways to get an edge at sports betting:1 - Get insider information such as lineups, injuries, referees, fixed matches2 - Follow the market moves of the sharpest sportsbooks and bet lines that are favorable compared to the market at smaller, slow-moving sportsbooks (steam betting)3 - Build quantitative models to predict the outcome of events better than the bookmakers' linesI have no access to method #1. I made some money using method #2 but this got me banned/limited at a lot of sportsbooks and the advantages were pretty small anyway. Now I do method #3. I bet props and derivatives on US sports, mostly football and baseball, and opening sides/spreads in US baseball. Down the line I hope to expand to a couple other medium size markets in the baseball off-season. My advantage is 5-10% on props and 1-3% on major markets, anybody who tells you they do too much better than this is either running hot, has strong insider info, or is full of BS.Here is a typical day for me during the US baseball season:10-11 AM PST - Opening lines for next day's games are out. Actually the very first source of the lines releases earlier than this but I wait until around this time since this is when the limits are increased to $1k USD across multiple books. I load the matchups into my model and check my lineups from the previous night's games vs. any trade/injury reports and bet wherever there is the most value. All of my bets are strictly based on quantitative models, in general I watch very few games, and I only bet (in major markets) when there is a fairly large difference between the probability I model and the market price. I never bet on the current day's games, only the day before, as that is when there is the most value as the lines are rougher and haven't been pounded by large syndicate bettors. In addition some bettors have insider information on lineups and umpires (I don't) but this information usually will not apply to games on the following day. So by betting early I do not have to go against this disadvantage.12-2 PM PST - Lineups are released (publically) for the current day's games. Props are posted on the major US sports betting sites. My model outputs fair value lines for all props and derivatives. Limits are low but I can make 10-30 bucks per prop and get a large number of bets down. I bet whatever the max limit is across every site that offers them.8 PM PST - A few of the smaller sportsbooks will post reduced juice (4/5 cent vig instead of 10 cent) lines for the following day's games. This adds about 1% to profitability. Limits are low on these books but I will add to my plays around this time if I see any good lines. In addition I take this time to evaluate the current day's plays vs the closing lines to make sure I am getting value. I will evaluate any plays where the closing line did not move in my favor in-depth to try to understand the reasoning as usually the market is pretty efficient. Usually it is some piece of news like a key player being rested but sometimes I find aspects to the contest that are not covered well in my model and make a note for future improvements.8 AM PST - Check the markets for the current day's plays and potentially make any wagers if there have been any pitching changes on the current day's games, and bet any props on early games, if they exist.Anyway this is pretty standard for a daily sport like baseball, weekly sports like soccer or American football have a little different cadence.In addition to the hundreds of hours I spent to put together a model you can see that this takes several hours a day and the stronger players probably spend 80-100 hours a week during the season, I personally prefer to pick on the markets when they're a little easier to beat or smaller and spend the rest of my time on more lucrative advantage plays.

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