Appendix B Motions: Fill & Download for Free

Thank you Abhijeet for the A2A!Gandalf the Grey was a (mitigated) failure.Perhaps it's unfair to do so, but the OP's question encourages us to play armchair quarterback and critique Gandalf the Grey's performance. So here is a list of fairly significant things that were within his Istar mission area and scope of capabilities that he could and should have done, but didn't:1) Failed to prevent the downfall of the kingdom of Arnor.Consequence: near-annihilation of the bloodline of Isildur.There is absolutely no mention of Gandalf the Grey or any of the other Istari participating in Arthedain's centuries-long war against the Witch-king of Angmar. They had already been in Middle-earth for at least one and a half centuries before Angmar invaded Arnor in force.But in over six centuries of back and forth warfare there is no mention of them lifting a finger to help. As a result the Dúnedain outside Gondor nearly died out; if the orcs had slain Arathorn II three years earlier the royal line would have been extinct.2) Failed to discover Saruman's turn to evil, despite abundant evidence, until too late.Consequence: Gandalf the Grey was unable to assist the hobbits when the Nazgûl invaded the Shire and nearly captured both Frodo Baggins and Sauron's Ruling Ring.Despite being accounted the wisest of the Maiar, our friend the Grey Pilgrim failed to connect the bread crumbs -- more like flashing neon signs -- showing that Saruman had become a traitor to the White Council. What bread crumbs?a) In the year 2851 of the Third Age of Middle-earth Saruman the White overruled Gandalf's motion to attack Dol Guldur. This should have raised a red flag.b) In 2953 Saruman feigned that he had "... discovered that the One Ring ... passed down Anduin to the Sea." When Gandalf later realized Bilbo Baggins' ring was the Ruling Ring this should have raised a red flag.c) In 2941 Gandalf the Grey commiserated with Thorin II Oakenshield that "I was very troubled at that time ... for Saruman was hindering all my plans." Uh, come again? If Saruman was actively hindering your plans, that should have raised a red flag.d) In the decades leading up to the War of the Ring Saruman"... took Isengard for his own and began to make it a place of guarded strength and fear, as though to rival the Barad-dûr. His friends and servants he drew then from all who hated Gondor and Rohan, whether Men or other creatures more evil." Gandalf was constantly traveling around Middle-earth and would have heard the news. That should have raised a major red flag.3) Failed to train the other members of the Fellowship of the Ring at Imladris following the Council of Elrond.Consequence: the hobbits of the Fellowship were completely ignorant of Middle-earth's geopolitics and unskilled in matters of survival and combat.See: How should the members of the Fellowship of the Ring have spent their time in Imladris preparing for their quest?4) Failed to brief Aragorn II Elessar on what to do after crossing the mines of Moria.Consequence: the Fellowship of the Ring fell apart and nearly failed in its mission due to lack of guidance.In Lothlórien Aragorn II Elessar told Celeborn: "We have not decided our course ... Beyond Lothlórien I do not know what Gandalf intended to do."Seriously? During the weeks after the Council of Elrond they didn't find time to talk about maybe coming up with an actual, ya know, plan about where to go and what to do with Sauron's Ruling Ring ... the single greatest threat to the Free Peoples of Middle-earth???This is almost as lame as Gandalf the Grey's scatter-brained "plan" to get rid of the dragon in Erebor (see What was Gandalf's original plan to defeat Smaug in the book The Hobbit?)5) Failed to influence Denethor II or his predecessors to take the appropriate, prudent strategic actions necessary to prepare for the inevitable war with Sauron.Consequence: Gondor was woefully unready for war despite knowing it was coming for decades if not centuries. Minas Tirith needed not one but two miracles (i.e., the Riders of Rohan and the Black Ships) just to survive the Battle of the Pelennor Fields.See If you were the Ruling Steward in charge of Gondor's defenses 10 years before the War of the Ring and were aware of the threat rising in the east, what would you have done to prepare the country for war?6) Saving the worst for last, Gandalf the Grey imperiled all the Free Peoples of Middle-earth when he failed to pursue his suspicions about Frodo Baggins' gold ring.Consequence: the near destruction of all of Middle-earth and everyone in it.According to The Lord of the Rings Appendix B (The Tale of Years) in the year 3001 "Gandalf suspects [Bilbo Baggins'] ring to be the One Ring." DING DING DING!!! We have a winner!So why wait for sixteen (16) years to travel to Gondor to search for Isildur's document? This was Gandalf the Grey's number one bona fide screwup and it enabled Sauron to bring his "... victory to within a nail's breadth of his grasp."But it wasn't Gandalf the Grey's fault he was such a bumbling screwup. His legendary wisdom took a serious hit when his Maia spirit was encased in a wrapping of real, live human body. All of the Istari:"... must forgo might, and clothe themselves in flesh so as to treat on equality and win the trust of Elves and Men. But this would imperil them, dimming their wisdom and knowledge, and confusing them with fears, cares and wearinesses coming from the flesh."And to his credit, he stayed faithful to the intent of his Istari mission even when he broke the terms and conditions of his contract. As soon as he was reincarnated as the transcendent Maia spirit Gandalf the White, freed from the frailties of human flesh and once again able to employ his legendary wisdom (see Posts: News Flash: Gandalf the White was not an Istar) Gandalf the White got his groove back.And unlike Gandalf the Grey, Gandalf the White was a smashing success!

In 1904, Lord Kelvin thought we were close to the end of physics, except for “two small clouds over the dynamical theory of heat and light”:“The beauty and clearness of the dynamical theory, which asserts heat and light to be modes of motion, is at present obscured by two clouds. I. The first came into existence with the undulatory theory of light, and was dealt with by Fresnel and Dr. Thomas Young; it involved the question, How could the earth move through an elastic solid, such as essentially is the luminiferous ether? II. The second is the Maxwell-Boltzmann doctrine regarding the partition of energy.”NINETEENTH CENTURY CLOUDS OVER THE DYNAMICAL THEORY OF HEAT AND LIGHT (APPENDIX B) - Baltimore Lectures on Molecular Dynamics and the Wave Theory of LightSo except for relativity and quantum mechanics, things were pretty well wrapped up at that point…118 years later we currently still have some small residual problems connecting gravity with quantum mechanics, and some lack of clarity on dark matter and dark energy, but as soon as those are resolved, yeah, probably just some refinements of measurements after that. :)

There is no difference in Earth response from (relatively) ancient great earthquakes (M ≥ 8.0) to modern great quakes. And, yes, great quakes measurably affect polar motion and Earth dynamics. These geodynamic effects are very small in measure, but some may, over decades, manifest nonlinearly as significant alterations in Earth’s rotational behavior. An example is shown below, which is an excerpt from an appendix in a new article now in draft stage. Click on figure to enlarge.A greatly abbreviated explanation:“From 1900 to about 1960, the cyclical trace of polar-drift jounce (second time-derivative of drift acceleration - a rotational aspect) shows consistent growth in amplitude envelope at roughly equal time intervals. Such rotational response in the jounce domain of change is hypothesized to show resonance produced by celestial-mechanical forcing on an asymmetrical mass distribution of Earth. Quakes of M ≥ 9.0 have repeatedly been shown to affect the spin dynamics of Earth by altering the global mass distribution. And from section [11] of the adjoining article:In 1960, the greatest quake instrumentally measured (M9.5) with a fracture length of about 1000 km occurred near Chile on a plate margin of the Pacific Rim. In 1964, the second greatest quake instrumentally measured (M9.2) with a fracture length of nearly 800 km occurred in Prince William Sound, Alaska on a plate margin of the Pacific Rim.Thus, because an obvious change in drift-rotational response occurred about 1960, it seems likely that the 1960 Chilean and possibly 1964 Alaskan mega-quakes interrupted Earth’s resonant response in the jounce domain of change by altering the global mass distribution of the crust.”Indications are that Earth's length-of-day (LOD) is less affected by great quakes than are the successive, time-derivative dynamics of polar motion.A draft article that includes detailed description (in Appendix B) of the figure used above is now available to the public, just select the latest draft:Los Angeles & San FranciscoPlease recognize that this work is tentative and exercise caution in its interpretation and acceptance.****