Guide To The Analysis Of Insurgency: Fill & Download for Free

This answer may contain sensitive images. Click on an image to unblur it.If the Pakistan Army launches a guided cruise missile at India, which then hits a bus full of the paramilitary Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) soldiers, will this be considered an act of war ?This attack on a CRPF convoy whose skills and materials originated from Pakistan, using an indoctirated youth of India was nothing but a military attack on India by the Pakistani military. The amount of explosives used (80 kg high grade RDX) is similar in power the explosive that is packed in 500 lb bombs and cruise missiles. Hence think of this attack as a cruise missile attack from the Pakistan army and should be treated as such.While there may be discussions of war going, the unfortunate fact many Indian’s don’t realize, is that India has been at war with Pakistan since 1989, when the Kashmir insurgency started immediately after Pakistani achieved maturity in its nuclear weapons program. Sadly for Indians, this proxy war against India is heavily one sided, with heavy attrition on Indian side and none on Pakistan.Let’s look at some data:Here are the Indian and Pakistani casualty figures in the last major wars of 1965 and 1971 and the current Proxy war:1965India: 3000 soldiers, 100-200 (approx.) CiviliansPakistan: 3800 soldiers, 100 (approx.) civilians1971India: 3900 soldiers, 200-300 (approx.) CiviliansPakistan: 9000 soldiers, 100 – 200 (approx.) civiliansKashmir Proxy war (1989 – Current)India: 6100 soldiers, 30000 CiviliansPakistan: 10-20 soldiers, 0-100 (approx.) civiliansYes, while Indian military casualties are close to the 1965 and 1971 casualties combined, Pakistan military casualties are almost 0, nada, none ! And Indian civilians have paid an even higher price, will 30000 dead with almost none in Pakistan. These absurdly low attrition figures on the Pakistani side is any military general’s dream come true.And you have to give credit where it’s due, where Pakistani master-minds in its brilliant Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) are the architects of this strategy. The Pakistani army and ISI’s strategy of using the religion of the Kashmiri people against them is a masterstroke, that will go down in history books as a military strategy that makes Chanakaya look like a rookie.It will be also be a lie to claim that Indian polity and its citizens did not help Pakistan achieve its aims. Even now, the Indian polity and citizens are debating a response to a very clear military strike on Indian soil. Forget about a country having the 3rd largest military in the world, no self-respecting nation-state will consider a response to a military attack even worthy of a debate. It will simply be done, consequences be damned! This analysis-paralysis among Indians is another force multiplier for the Pakistanis.Indian action has been also been crippled by Pakistan’s perceived threat of escalation and using nuclear weapons at the drop of a hat. Pakistan has created this master perception in the minds of Indians that it is a very irrational nation and doesn’t care about its well-being. This is a mental game that Indian’s have easily succumbed to, inspite of the fact that Pakistanis very much care about their life and well-being just like the Indians.Remember, both Indians and Pakistanis have shared the same culture for over 2000 years. This is also borne by the fact that every war that Pakistan has undertaken has been after careful thought and planning. In fact in some of them (like Kargil and Op. Gibraltor in 1965) they were overly cautious that ultimately led to their loss. A bigger evidence is that Pakistan started the proxy war in India only once its Kahuta nuclear power plant went critical and it had the technical know how to build miniaturized nuclear weapons. Pakistan’s struggle to build nuclear weapons is another story in ingenuity, desperation and careful planning but that is another story in itself.Bottom-line is that, Pakistan realizes that is has as much to lose as India if they escalate, and Indian’s have to be adept at this mental game.So let us now see the advantages each nation has in the ongoing war in Kashmir.Pakistan1. A muslim majority country that has the most powerful military among Islamic nations. This makes Pakistan well respected among their peers and along with Saudi Arabia, a beacon for Islamic conquest of the world2. Indian occupied Kashmir being a Muslim majority area. This allows Pakistan to leverage #1 and appeal to that population3. A top notch covert ops agency (ISI) that applies very innovative tactics4. Nuclear weapons, the back bone that gives ‘covering fire’ for #4 to indulge in any activities it likes5. A carefully crafted image of being ‘irrational’ or ‘crazy’ that gives it lot of leverage since it makes them unpredictable. Everyone is scared of a ‘crazy’ nation and this is force multiplier for #1, #2, #3 and #4.6. Backing of China which reinforces #5India1. A secular nation with a large Muslim minority. After Turkey, India is the only country where Muslims enjoy such independence. This helps to counter Pakistan’s advantage #12. Every river flowing to Pakistan originates in India3. The largest film industry in the world, which has major influence in Pakistan4. Some of the world’s best hospitals that Pakistanis love to be treated in5. One of the largest artillery forces in the world. These forces possess some of the most lethal stand-off weapons currently known to man6. Every major city in the Pakistani province of Punjab is within range of Indian artillery’s stand-off weapons7. Sparsely populated border areas relative to PakistanSo if you look at the proxy war of Kashmir, Pakistani has leveraged each one of the 6 advantages to the limit. Apart from using #1 using diplomatic channels, India has not leveraged any of it advantages and this is the reason for the complete asymmetrical progress Pakistan has made in this war so far.Now let’s for a moment assume India becomes a self-respecting nation and will not accept an attack on its soil without any corresponding payback. It can be done easily if India starts leveraging its above advantages to the hilt, just like Pakistan has done. Hence, India needs to:1. Immediately withdraw government security to Pakistan backed separatist in India (like the Hurriyat) and make special laws to put them in jail. This will dent Pakistan’s advantage with #2.2. Renegade on the Indus Water treaty, build dams so that no water flows to Pakistan. This will hit Pakistan’s Punjab province the most, and it will be a force multiplier as most of Pakistani army leadership and its political leadership is from Punjab. This will help mitigate Pakistani advantage #33. Move 155mm towed artillery, Pinaka and Smerch MBRLS to the border. Have them launch massive ‘area-flattening’ strikes at random times without any provocation. Hit military/terrorist targets, but if there is civilian collateral damage so be it. Make Pakistani civilians pay like Indian citizens have been paying. While 155mm can strike 30kms beyond the border, Pinaka and Smerch can hit till 40kms and 90kms , respectively. Even areas beyond Lahore will not be safe while our soldiers stay in our territory. Use artillery locating radars to pinpoint and destroy Pakistan artillery who can only retaliate at a smaller scale. Due to Indian advantage #6, Indian border areas will not be hit as hard and this will checkmate Pakistani advantage of #5, as India can also prove to ‘unpredictable’4. In the event of any major terrorist strike in India, use Brahmos cruise missiles for targeted strikes against the leadership of the terrorist organization that claimed the terrorist strike. Brahmos can hit the door of a building from a distance of 290 kms, and gives a new meaning to the term 'surgical strike'. Most of the terrorists reside in Pakistani Punjab so use Indian advantage #6 to the maximum5. On the exact day as #3 and #4 are done, announce free medical treatment to a few poor Pakistanis and give some Pakistani actors visas to work in Bollywood. Make those Pakistani patients and actors issue statements on how much they are thankful to India and how they wish India and Pakistani can be friends. Make a huge media event out of India’s benevolence. Use Indian advantage #3 and #4 to the hilt. Once media hype is over, repeat action #3.6. Along with #4 and #5, announce in TV that India-Pakistan’s are best friends forever and India is only helping Pakistan fight terror. Have a few ‘Aman ki Asha’ types make some media statements too. This will dent Pakistani advantage #4, as with a limited standoff strike and public display of such benevolence, Pakistan will be hard pressed to justify an escalation.7. Start developing close relations with Vietnam, Cambodia and other nations who don’t like China. Let China know blind support to Pakistan will have repercussion and hence, mitigate Pakistan’s advantage #6.References:1. http://www.dailyexcelsior.com/21000-terrorists-killed-j-k-since-1990/2. Multiple articles in Wikipedia3. http://www.bharat-rakshak.com4. Image credits: US Top News and Analysis5. Image credits: hindustantimes.com

ANALYSIS UNRAVELS Pompeo’s false claims most of the drones downed at the refinery lacked the range to fly from either Iran or Iraq:HOUTHI who were controlling the drone strike we had to be very close to the refinery. Saudis shot down a number of RASED/Rashid RECONNAISSANCE drones at the refinery site(see bat shaped drone in above image) these were being used to laser designate targets These drones only had 21 MILE/ 35km flying range. This calls into doubt claims that the other attack drones following actually flew hundreds of miles at all ?HOUTHI controlling the the drone strike had to be close enough for a short range line of sight radio link & this limitation ruled out an attack being launched from Iran. An Iranian attack is pure propaganda fiction.THE REFINERY WAS ATTACKED AT 3.41AM local time.19 pinpoint drone strikes were counted at the Abqiaq refinery. Saudis claimed there were 25 drones in total.At a Saudi display of recovered drones on Wednesday 18 Sept, Saudis claim they identified 25 individual drones used (mainly RASHID or Ababil-3 attack drones plus a few QUDS-1 CRUISE MISSILES)Qut of all these drones, none except the QUDS-1 could reach the refinery by flying from IRAN.Were Cruise Missiles used in contrast to drones?:The Twitter account for Saudi Mohamed bin Khalid, published photos of debris from a cruise missile which came down during attack on the Aramco refinery without disclosing a location. Elongated smoke clouds seen in the sky above, however suggests the location was downwind,or southwest of the refinery fire ie towards YEMEN. Fuel scorches on the sand suggest this cruise missile was intercepted at night by an F-15 fighter with an AN/AQ14 LANTIRN POD rather than by ground fireLANTIRN - WikipediaSaudi pilots post tweets boasting of shooting down drones:#Saudi F-15 pilots are apparently mastering techniques to detect & shoot down #Iranian made Surv./IED-drones over #Yemen. In fact, almost every #RSAF F-15C/S Squadron was involved in a number of A/A kills in support of #OpRestoreHope pic.twitter.com/bD2EGR6bqV— محمد بن خالد (@MbKS15) September 2, 2019VIDEO: #Saudi Air Force F-15 Eagle shoots down an #Iranian made IED-drone, Qasef-2K, over #Yemen. It’s worth mentioning that RSAF F-15s have intercepted & destroyed around 20 drones over the last 12 months. pic.twitter.com/TuNZhDoNLN— محمد بن خالد (@MbKS15) August 19, 2019this evidence suggests some QUDS-1 cruise missiles were indeed launched from Yemen at night & Saudis are concealing the interception of at least one missile,this one below or the circumstances:Well well well... pic.twitter.com/bPgY6J67JE— محمد بن خالد (@MbKS15) September 14, 2019Iran bought at least 12 advanced kh-55Soviet missiles from Ukraine after the collapse of the Soviet Union, according to several sources.IRAN reverse engineered the KH-55 to develop Iran’s SOUMAR CRUISE MISSILE.BELOW : Soviet KH-55:Houthi purchased some SOUMAR FROM Iran and reverse engineered them to develop their own Quds-1 placing a small jet engine on top, not beneath like the KH-55SAUDI images of downed drones unwiittingly prove that Iran did not cause the refinery attack, nor provide the cruise missiles, because recovered debris come from a QUDS-1 CRUISE MISSILE MANUFACTURED BY Houthi, THIS MISSILE BASED ON THE OLD soviet KH-55 IS NOT MANUFACTURED BY Iran.parts including the CZECH PBS TJ1OO TURBOJET engine can be bought openly by hobbyists for Radio Control model planes. GPS trackers can easily be bought for cars too. HEZBOLLAH FROM Lebanon ARE THOUGHT TO HAVE ASSISTED Houthi design various drones.IN July 2019 Houthi publicly displayed a range of drones & cruise missiles manufactured in YEMEN: referred to in the following article:Yemen army unveils new ‘game-changing’ missiles, dronesMy guess is that HOUTHI sabatouers under cover in northern Saudi Arabia Bahrain or QATAR imported parts to assemble these missiles in the Saudi kingdom which may explain the puzzle why the missiles struck from the north?QUDS-1 MISSILE does notmatch any Iranian cruise missile including the SOUMARArticle below explains differences between IRAN’S Soumar cruise missile and Quds-1Meet the Quds 1This article noted Houthi reconnaissance drones track targets with both infra red and laser equipmentYemen Has Become Iran’s Testing Ground for New Weaponssaudi air defences facing IranBECAUSE saudiPAC-2 radar guidedPatriot missile defences would have intercepted any airborne missile or drone raid I would assume the raid was launched within northern Saudi Arabia or from Qatar.This graphic shows Saudi Air Defences around the Abqaiq oil facilities that were struck early Saturday. The drones were well within PAC-2 range, but outside Hawk range. It's possible that the low-flying or the drones' small size and composite materials helped it avoid detection. pic.twitter.com/AiMJ0LZT27— Aᴍɪʀ (@AmirIGM) September 14, 2019USE OF drones in refinery attackI am grateful to MAHDI KHORRAMDEL FOR THIS TWEET HOWthe Yemen army (Houthi )use drones to attack targets:#AramcoDroneStrike presents a good opportunity to share some parts of my war documentary about Yemen, in which I discuss drones and their parts in Houthis success. this independent documentary was build using personal funding. this was not aired on IRIBpic.twitter.com/FCvzHvjpXv— Mahdi Khorramdel | مهدی خرم‌دل (@khorramdellll) September 15, 2019DRONE LASER DESIGNATOR limits operational radius of strikeIT SEEMS Houthi first send a reconnaissance drone to find a target and then circle over target with a laser designator to guide other combat drones to strike the target. This is the type of reconnaissance drone used at Abqiaq:The Rased drone above only has an operational range of 35km with 120 ,minutes endurance.Normally the Rased (reconnaissance drone) guides Ababil-3 (Qasef-1) drone to attack a target/Ababil-3 has a range of just 100km.debris of a RASED drone (above) from attack on displayIn the case of the Abqiaq refinery long range QUDS-1 cruise missiles likely also have relied upon Rashid drones for pinpoint targeting of the refinery, but the QUDS-1 potentially had sufficient range (1350km) to fly across SAUDI territory from Yemen TOWARDS A RADIO HOMING device and then switch to local guidance at the refineryUnmanned Aerial Vehicles Of Houthi Forces In Yemen (Photos, Videos)All this puts Houthi operators no more than 35 km (21 miles) from the refinery during the attack:Understanding this Houthi tactic is important because the ABQIAQ REFINERY ATTACK WAS LIMITED BOTH BY RANGE OF THE DRONE and lowSTRENGTH OF THE radio control signal to somewhere v close to the refinery,that means inside SAUDI territory.Furthermore Bahrain is home of the US Navy’s 5th fleet, The 11th marine Corps Sheik Issa air base (aka “SHAKEY PIZZA BASE”) whilst US CENTCOM IS BASED AT nearby Doha, QATAR all of which are protected by round the clock radar surveillance. An armada of drones from Iran would have to overfly theseUS bases and could not do so unobserved:(SHEIK ISSA AIR BASE ABOVE)Drones involved like the Qasef-1 (HOUTHI name =Ababil-3)“combat” -attack drone (image below) have ranges 0f just 100km, or 62 miles HOW COULD 25 DRONES & assorted cruise missiles fly over SHEIK Issa air base undetected?only have a range of 62 mile(100km) placing IRAN & Yemen well out of range. Houthi themselves claimed they fired ten drones Their short range suggests they had to be launched from either Bharain, Qatar, or northern SAUDI TERRITORY, These drones lacked the range to fly from Iran to the refinery at Abqiaq. CERTAINLY the reconnaissance drone was no more than 30 miles from the refinery in order to maintain radio reception for designating the target.Supplied by IRAN or Houthi built drones?THE houthi ABABEL-3 is definitetly a drone design copied from the Iranian Qasef-1Parts appear to be smuggled into Saudi Arabia UAE Oman or QATAR & often assembled in areas outsideYemen’s economic blockade, PARTS seem to be bought openly but assembled by experts on location.In late 2016 a truck was stopped carrying six disassembled Qasef-1 drones minus engines driven from OMAN TO Yemen. It seems DLE.111 ENGINES FROM China are usually mated to the drone by Houthi.further reading:Suicide Drones... Houthi Strategic WeaponSimon Gunson's answer to Why is Dennis Rodman predicting that North Korea's Kim Jong-un will visit the US?Simon Gunson's answer to Who is to blame for the MH17 incident over Ukraine?Simon Gunson's answer to What really happened to MH370 and where is that 777? It's been 4 years and the search goes on.Simon Gunson's answer to Is the 1917 version of capitalism the same as 2017?

3D printing is going to be a universal game changer.While this is a step back in the actual technology of the gun as far as reliability, accuracy, durability, and safety once the means to "print" a gun becomes ubiquitous, it is going to be a real democratizing force.The United States Department of State has already taken actions to attempt to prevent this, demanding that one designer Defense Distributed end it's distribution of the gun it designed for 3D printers called the Liberator. The State Department Office of Defense Trade Controls Compliance cites a potential infringement of export controls in reference to the International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR).[1]"Until the Department provides Defense Distributed with final [commodity jurisdiction] determinations, Defense Distributed should treat the above technical data as ITAR-controlled. This means that all data should be removed from public access immediately. Defense Distributed should review the remainder of the data made public on its website to determine whether any other data may be similarly controlled and proceed according to ITAR requirements."While the company complied, it was reported that the blueprints were made available through pirated plans almost immediately through third party distributors such as Mega and Pirate Bay. There were over 100,000 downloads of the original file for creating the weapon within the first months after the Liberator was debuted and following its removal by the State Department it became the most popular file shared on the sharing site Pirate Bay.[2]While I know many people are going to think about the United States when the topic of gun violence comes up, the US actually won't be where the real story is. Here, we have a system built around the assumption that guns are readily available and have built a society around this fact that attempts to allow responsible gun use without forbidding it outright.In other parts of the world, where guns of any sort are criminalized, they have no means to prevent the sudden appearance of massive amounts of undocumented and unregistered firearms. Where many people live under harsh government rule, and also have no rights to gun ownership, this could be a lethal combination. Consider China, where 93% of the people have no democratic representation because they do not qualify for the "high standards" of the Chinese Communist Party. At a time when 3D printing might already upset the economy there, the sudden appearance of so many weapons could plausibly result in the end of a regime. Consider also the case of the Middle East. Actually, I'm just going to let you imagine that yourselves, considering that the Arab Spring happened just because all these people had access to Twitter. Syria and Libya showed us how far some people are willing to follow that through... and those conflicts are having repercussions across the globe. Seriously consider the implications of universal access to weaponry, which if all the 3D printing evangelicals are declaring is true... is exactly what will happen.I'm just going to be honest about this, a lot of people are going to die. The numbers are going to be so staggering that the current gun debate in the US is going to seem like a cruel joke. I don't really know how to stop this once 3D printing technology becomes more universal, but the truth is that it is something that should be considered in any long term questions about the future of the technology. No one expected Twitter to be a force for international upheaval, but it became so. 3D printing is opening a lot of doors for amazing new things, but once weaponry via such a medium becomes commonplace, much of the world is going to change.I will say this, as threatening as this posts appears, I am optimistic in the long run. While I think that many, many terribly undemocratic regimes are going to be challenged, some overthrown, I think that 50 years out from now, the democratic nature of a universally armed populace is going to have a massive effect towards the propagation of civil liberties among the the bottom billion. Once they are provided with the ultimate liberty, the respect of their leaders, they will be empowered like nothing we have produced for them before.I don't imagine a dystopian future where everyone has a gun and is murdering everyone else. There are more guns than Americans in the United States. Despite this fact and what the news reads, most of us have never experienced gun violence in spite of unknowingly passing hundreds every day with concealed carry licenses. I don't imagine a utopia either. There will be gun violence. If mental health is not considered an important factor in gun ownership debate for the rest of the world as it currently isn't in the United States, they will face the same staggering gun suicide rates that we do, and they will experience the same shooting sprees that dot our headlines periodically. Either way, the United States needs to lead the world in how we solve gun rights issues because soon, every single person in the world could be armed with a gun they made in their garage.On the Future of Ammunition and the 3D printed GunNumerous people have made comments about a perceived failure of what I am trying to explain. The most logical of these arguments centers around the problem of ammunition, so I'll give it special attention as I try to address some of the others.I'll give credit to those who thought far enough ahead to realize that ammunition is going to be a major choke point in the arming of any population, be it national militaries, or a collection of free individuals. The way we think about ammunition today would not work for a system where 3D printed guns are made illegal. Even the one pictured at the beginning of this post would not be able to work without some form of continual ammunition source. However, what many need to understand about ammunition is that it isn't as rare as most of us think... or even, in the case of 3D printed weapons, as necessary.I want it to be clear, we aren't talking about making every piece of a weapon, from the barrel, trigger, and down to the ammo, from a 3D printer just for the sake of saying we did with some novel technology. That scenario is so specific that it also is impractical. The revolution in the dynamics of humanity's relationship between itself and the gun will change because the hardest parts of weapon acquisition will be made easier through the use of these new machines and processes. We are talking about overcoming barriers and getting around the traditional, well established means by which most defense and security assumptions are made. To help illuminate this, the general populous and well established industries, and nations don't specialize in this sort of grand thinking. This is the specialty of terrorists, insurgents, and anyone who views their survival tied to the use of unconventional warfare as a means of overcoming the grand and deeply entrenched mechanisms in place by the stabilized and powerful forces they compete with. For these people, the need to create a weapon system, from beginning to end through some novel form, isn't necessary. What is necessary, to them, is a means to overcome an the few obstacles which exist that narrows their wider ability to compete, in this case, the banning of factory line weapons. After the logistical choke point can be overcome, in this case with the production of an untraceable weapon, then we will start to see the hidden potential of these clandestine/revolutionary/terrorist/black market actors have had available all along, but thus far ignored because they didn't have the key resources available to act on them. One these key resources after the creation of a gun supply will be ammunition, but this can be produced via other processes, all of which are already well documented, and well known, if you only know where to look.1) Ammunition isn't as rare as you think.My father-in-law was an avid shooter. Like me, he didn't come from wealthy stock, so to support our mutual love of the sport, he introduced me to the fact that it was easy to make bullets at home. I was, at the time, under the belief that the only place to get ammo was a store, so finding out that it was possible to make it at home was a revolutionary concept for me. Not only for me, but for what that means in the way of insurgency warfare, a topic I've written about often given my history as a Marine deployed the Iraq War.Guides to making bullet cartridges are available throughout the internet. While you may not be able to 3D print these, there really isn't a need to reinvent the wheel when the means to just build it are so readily available across the internet. - How To Make Your Own Bullets Today. Usually, the only logistical choke point involved here is the creation of the metal cartridges used to store the primers and propellant. Having said that, there is an abundance of knowledge on even the homemade creation of these with none too rare supplies available to the average machinist.I've even seen another video that clearly demonstrates how to create a complete working bullet, at least functionally speaking, out of everyday household items that would be economically impossible for any government to outlaw.Granted, anyone who watched carefully will note that the weapon produced was not lethal to the extent that a modern military grade rifle is, but I'm using it as a proof of concept in the point that ammunition is not the rare commodity that many people seem to be basing their long term national security on. It is also important to know that when people are creating ammunition stores in their own homes, quality controls won't produce the kind of reliability that one could expect from respected ammunition manufactures, such as those used by the military or major distributors of guns and ammunition. That said, these kinds of "cook houses" aren't uncommon in any black market/insurgent enterprise. A simple house in the middle of the desert could be converted into an ammunition factory with five guys pushing out a thousand rounds a day. I'll use the example of Palestinian terrorists. It would be not unlike how the Qassam rocket is produced to aid Palestinian terrorists.In the Hamas/Israel example, one of the most used rocket designs, the Qassam, can be built for as little as $800 American. Considering what that can do with it's 9 pound warhead over a 17 mile range, that's a pretty good deal.Do cheap, readily available civilian drones potentially pose a new and unique threat in terms of terrorism?These individuals have created entire missile factories inside their homes for the purposes of shelling Israeli cities. Similar sites also existed in Iraq, as well. They are able to use mostly scrap, publically available legal chemical products, and some rough designs to allow good engineers to train moderate to mediocre engineers in the art of building these projectiles. In this way, a modern missile has been in the hands of terrorists for many years in various parts of the Middle East.That is, if you even need to produce the ammunition. A summary of a report put out on where groups like Syria get most of their ammunition. The results were shocking by some accounts....here's the short answer to the question [of where does the Islamic State get its Ammunition]: Everywhere. China. The USSR/Russia. The US. Eastern Europe. North Korea. The Sudan. Iran. All told, of 1,730 identifiable new and expended small-arms cartridges, CAR identified the markings of manufacturers in 21 different countries all over the world.Source: Conflict Armament Research. "Analysis of small-calibre ammunition recovered from Islamic State forces in Iraq and Syria"What the report showed was there was still a healthy black market for ammunition, readily flowing across the world from any location to virtually any other location on the map. Given that premise, I don't really see why we need to ask the question of where an insurgency force would need to look to get ammunition. As the report put it well... everywhere.2) Is that even a gun?The thing that I think many people are having problems with is the lack of understanding about what 3D printing is going to mean. Some comments have said that the weapons are limited by the limitations of plastic guns, being mainly, that they aren't durable and their fire isn't reliable over time. This is true, but the statement comes with a belief that the printers will only work with plastic, or that they will only be basic copies of designs made today. Both of these assumptions have already been proven false.Firstly, the limitations of material use are nowhere near being fully explored, while the current generation is mostly creating products through plastics, metals have also been used, and even biological and organic materials. That is to say, even organs made of living cells have been made through printing.The point of explaining this is to say the 3D printed materials are going to have ridiculous properties that defy many of our common understandings of how things can be made. Most people say that with optimism, but as this post should show, that too can be a very frightening concept. To make my point even more clear, the world's first metal 3D printed gun has already been made. The world’s first 3D printed metal gun is a beautiful .45 caliber M1911 pistol | ExtremeTechNow, consider modern forging of weapons. The entire weapon's metal components are cast from a single alloy and set. What, however, would be the properties of a barrel made millimeter by millimeter, from the inside to the outside? Could one not create a weapon of many varying alloys, layered to combine the properties of several metals throughout the length of the weapon in a way that traditional metal casting never could? What if a coil of copper could be set in during the curing process, producing a magnetic current as the bullet passed through the barrel, either slowing down or speeding it up before escaping the weapon? Consider pockets of a different material homogeneously interwoven throughout the weapon that had the property of absorbing the vibration of the weapon. This would have the effect of both reducing the need for a large buffer spring and completely eliminating the need for a silencer without slowing down the round as silencers do. That's a weapon design that would be a major upgrade for both snipers and assassins. I'm not saying that any of these particular ideas would work. I'm not a physicist, so my ideas might explode the weapon and kill the user, but once we get away from the idea of the cast-metal weapon, someone will create new designs that will fundamentally alter the way we see the material that these weapons are made of.To complete my point on the strange properties that 3D will offer, I'd like to talk about another novel weapon system that just didn't work out. Below is the Metal Storm system.The Metal Storm is weird. That's all that can be said about it. It is a weird gun. Here's a description:Metal Storm used the concept of superposed load; multiple projectiles loaded nose to tail in a single gun barrel with propellant packed between them. The Roman candle, a traditional firework design, employs the same basic concept, however, the propellant continues to burn in the Roman candle's barrel, igniting the charge behind the subsequent projectile. The process is repeated by each charge in turn, ensuring that all projectiles in the barrel are discharged sequentially from the single ignition. Various methods of separately firing each propellant package behind stacked projectiles have been proposed which would allow a "single shot" capability more suitable to firearms.[3]What is unique about the Metal Storm is that it has no ammo magazine. Even more weird is that it has almost none of the parts we traditionally associate with a gun. The magazine and the barrel are basically the same thing. It also fires using magnetically charged rounds. Because they cut out almost everything that we believe makes a gun a gun, they were able to do something remarkable. While the average infantrymen armed with an M-4 could maybe pull off 100 rounds a minute accurately, and the most advanced machine gun in the US arsenal is capable of 6,000 rounds a minute... the Metal Storm system is capable of firing at a speed of over 1 million rounds a minute. That's ludicrous.Now, I want to be clear, the Metal Storm isn't 3D printed, and the company behind it had flaws, along with the practicality behind the idea of who really needs to fire 1 million rounds a minute to the point that the company had to shut down. The Metal Storm as a case study, however, shows us one remarkable thing. Guns aren't what we think they are. By eliminating everything but the bullet and the barrel, Metal Storm created a remarkably lethal weapon system that made people ask, "Is that even a gun?" The damage the system inflicted on practice targets made it clear that it was. 3D printers will do the same, or to be more precise, the revolutionary new ways in which 3D printers will allow people to create materials, will change the way we see everything about the gun, including the ammunition it fires.Closing3D printers are the future of small arms. They will be something that will empower people that currently have none. Many of these people shouldn't have it. Of course there will be people who will use these weapons for harming other people who are good. Eventually though, this just simply won't be something we can control.I think that many people have a problem with idea of guns becoming so universal. They fear their country may become the Wild West that they believe the United States to be. One commentator even offered the opinion that:For every smart, good person, good citizen that gets a gun to do good, there are hundreds of crazy, unbalanced, criminal and ill intentionned [sic.] people that will get their hands on guns. Having guns being so available will only make situations more dangerous.While I'm not making a moral judgement here, I respond that this thinking is fundamentally, and absolutely wrong. There are over 300,000,000 guns in the United States. Assuming that a gun owner owns three, that's still one hundred million gun owners. This means that if this idea were true (hundreds of crazy, unbalanced, criminal and ill intentioned) there would be hundreds of millions if not tens of billions of people running amok on killing sprees and committing violence. This math, and this assumption, simply do not add in the real world.In fact, the opposite is true. For every one person who does something wrong, there are thousands who use guns responsibly. This response seems to be implying, that banning guns is the only rational way to solve the problem, but this only punishes the good while the bad won't follow the law anyway.Having said that, I want to talk about tyrants and oppressive regimes. Another person made the comment that a modern military, such as China, could never be threatened by plastic small arms distribution among the general populace. In fact, they said it was absurd."If anything, technology has swung the balance of power toward the tyrants. Consider this; What is the larger potential factor, 3D printers, or drones?"This imbalance of power is the reason for the American 2nd Amendment. It is an attempt to create a large and reasonably well armed populace to ensure that a nation's government respects its citizens enough to remember that the government is in service to, not in ownership of, its people. This is the reasoning for the statement of the democratizing power of the 3D printed gun. To echo others, "God did not make men equal. Sam Colt did." To this last point, asking which is the more important, Drones, or 3D guns, I'd like to remind readers that throughout the Iraq War, the Americans were armed with the world's greatest technology, including drones and more powerful guns than any others in the world. The Americans were repeatedly put against the ropes not by a force equal to us in either size or armament, but by unconventional means, like a well armed populace, unconventional uses for conventional weapons, and media interference. One needs to consider what kind of force held a collation of the most modern militaries in the world at bay in Iraq (remember that I was there) and ask again what people with limited means can do against superpowers. Tech does not, as it never has, guarantee victory.This isn't really relevant here, though, since we aren't arguing about the strength of 3D guns versus the power of drone warfare. The question is what is the next leap in small arms technology. Drones aren't the future of warfare, they are happening now. They are here already. The next generation of them will be amazing to witness, but we are already aware that. That's why I said that 3D printing was the next leap forward. However, 3D printing could open the door towards new people getting access to drones, but I digress.Now consider the statement about a drone empowering a tyrant. Consider a tyrant who bans the use of guns and sits behind a wall of automated soldiers. Their defenses are impossibly strong against any uprising that has ever happened. They have firm control over all imports and know exactly what is coming in and going out of the country. This makes their regime feel very comfortable in their seat of power, perhaps too comfortable. Security lapses and then something terrible happens.I stumbled on this a while back and it has always helped to give me perspective on just how fragile our security can be.Frankly, two small bullets killed over 100,000,000 million people because tensions became too great, regimes became too oppressive and a very few people had the means to act where very powerful people became careless and too comfortable. This event changed the world in ways so profound we can't picture what it would be like without having him killed. My concern is that a world that has framed themselves around the belief that there is one and only one right answer being that all guns should be removed from all people, will not be prepared for a time when they can't control a time where they are universal.This is why I say the United States needs to lead the world in how we solve gun rights issues. As I have said, we are a population that already has as many guns as people, and we aren't a small nation. We are extremely large, but also extremely diverse. Diversity spawns new ideas, but it also causes great tension. Given this dynamic and the freedoms we do still enjoy, we are the only metric with which the world will be able to gauge themselves once firearms become universal. I'm not saying that the United States is morally superior to places like Europe. They have had a history that allowed them to live without guns for a while, but the United States is the only country that sought to find a solution that involved their existence. For that reason, we will be who the world looks to in how they will deal with that future reality, as well. This is why we need to come to work to solve it here and now, as the American solution will echo throughout the 21st century.To be honest, I'm not saying whether this future is ethically right or wrong. I'm just saying it is going to happen, and that we need to deal with its implications, or learn at least, how to cope with them.More like this:What is the future of war?What currently-in-development real world military tech is closest to what is seen in "Edge of Tomorrow"?The Next Warrior by Jon DavisThanks for reading!For more answers like this check out On War by Jon Davis and follow my blog War Elephant for more new content. Everything I write is completely independent research and is supported by fan and follower pledges. Please consider showing your support directly by visiting my Patreon support page here: Jon Davis on Patreon: Help support in writing Military Novels, Articles, and Essays.Footnotes[1] State Department Demands Removal Of 3-D-Printed Liberator Gun Blueprints[2] Downloads For 3-D-Printed Gun Blueprint Hit 100,000