Impact Of Soil Freezing On The Continental-Scale Seasonal: Fill & Download for Free

This question may seem a a little silly when there is no hint of the end of snow and indeed recent snow storms are increasing and coming earlier than in the past. For example, snow is now falling in desert regions for the first time in decades - snow falls in Southern Morocco – first time in 50 years .... Flashback: Snow in Buenos Aires - first time in 89 years.Early season cold wave, snowfall hit Morocco 2019.Here is an article last month that may make you think this QUORA question is too speculative to matter.WRITTEN BY PIERRE GOSSELIN ON NOV 14, 2019. POSTED IN LATEST NEWSN. Hemisphere In Hypothermic Shock! Record Cold, ‘Historic Snowstorms’Winter hasn’t even officially arrived, but already large areas of the northern hemisphere are seeing “historic snowfalls,” frigid temperatures, and even avalanche alarms.The Northern Hemisphere has certainly caught a major cold, one certainly not caused by the human CO2 virus.Instead of fever, parts of the northern hemisphere are in hypothermia!Alarmists, media desperateThough global warming scientists will never admit it, they are really surprised and stunned.All that is left for them is to make up some cockamamie warming-causes-cold explanations and hope there are enough severely stupid among the media and masses to believe it.“United States — Rewrite the Record Books”Beginning in North America, “sub-zero temperatures are now blasting” millions of Americans following “the three historic snowstorms which buried parts of the U.S. last month,” reports weather site electroverse.net here.Electroverse writes that “lows throughout the week will be more like January temperatures” with readings below zero for many U.S. states and “temps down into the teens are even forecast as far south as Texas.”Ref. N. Hemisphere In Hypothermic Shock! Record Cold, 'Historic Snowstorms'Extreme Weather GSMGREENLAND JUST SET A NEW ALL-TIME RECORD-LOW TEMPERATUREJANUARY 3, 2020 CAP ALLONSummit Camp, also known as Summit Station, is a year-round research station on the apex of the Greenland Ice Sheet. It is located some 10,500 ft (3,200 m) above sea level, and it’s data is often cited by climate alarmists claiming “Greenland Is Melting Away Before Our Very Eyes” and other such nonsense…Adding to the list of temperature measurements those alarmists will likely ignore –or won’t even get to hear about given the mainstream media’s warm-bias– is Summit Camp’s preliminary low of -86.8F (-66C) set at 11:13 PM on January 02, 2020.The reading, once confirmed by the DMI, will enter the books as Greenland’s coldest-ever recorded temperature–not only at Summit Camp, and not only in January, but of anywhere across the island, and of any month of the year.Table of the old Summit Camp temp records (all-time low record smashed on Jan 02, 2019).Somehow, in what we’re to believe is a linearly warming world, Greenland –the poster boy for global warming– is currently the coldest we’ve ever known it to be.Furthermore, the Camp’s measurement isn’t far off the lowest ever recorded in the Northern Hemisphere — that title remains with Oymyakon, Russia, and it’s 1933 observation of −89.9F (−67.7C).Rarely, for the times we’re in (where historically low solar activity is weakening the jet stream, reverting it’s usual tight zonal flow to a wavy meridional one), the cold air has actually remained locked in the Arctic Circle, and the results have been punishing for the region.Though skipping forward 7-or-so-days, another violent buckling of the jet stream looks due to arrive by mid-January, and should once-again funnel dangerously cold polar air masses to the lower-latitudes.Watch out North America, as according to latest GFS runs, a pulse of brutal Arctic air will have engulfed practically all of Canada by Jan 09, and should have swept the Central & Western U.S. by Jan 17:Greenland just set a new all-time Record-Low Temperature - ElectroverseBut there is good reason to speculate about the end of snow when you dig into the science of our current Quaternary Ice age and you reflect on the strong often repeated prediction of alarmists in the early days that snow would moderate if not end as part of global warming.Following is a useful summary by Andy May of ice ages relevant to the question of snow.Earth’s Ice AgesAndy May / 1 day ago January 3, 2020By Andy MayThe phrase “Ice Age” is poorly defined and often abused, so let’s first define the climate state during most ice ages. It is called “Icehouse Earth.” The earth is in an icehouse state when either or both poles are covered in a thick, permanent icecap (Scotese 2015). Today, both poles are covered in ice year-round, so you may be surprised to learn this is very rare in Earth’s history. In fact, out of the last 550 million years, the earth has had permanent ice caps on one or both poles only nine percent of the time.An “Ice Age” is best defined as a geologically (or millions of years long) long period of low temperatures. This usually results in the presence of continental and polar ice sheets and alpine glaciers. We are currently living in the Quaternary Ice Age, this is only the fifth significant and severe ice age in Earth’s known history, and, so far it has lasted about 2.6 million years (technically 30+ million years ago when permanent ice appeared on Antarctica). It is the most severe ice age in the Phanerozoic, the geological name for the past 550 million years. Ice Ages are rare, but humans evolved during one, so it seems normal to us.Figure 1. Christopher Scotese’s geological interpretation of Phanerozoic global temperatures in degrees C. The vertical line on the right side, labeled “PAW” is a projection of possible anthropogenic warming according to a pessimistic IPCC climate model. In 2016 the actual global average surface temperature of the Earth was about 14.5 degrees C. as marked on the plot, in 2019 the temperature is slightly lower at 14.35 degrees according to NASA GISS. The names of the major ice ages were added by the author. After (Scotese 2015)As Figure 1 makes clear, the “normal” or “optimum” global average temperature of the Earth is 19.5 degrees C. or 67 degrees F. This is over 5 degrees C. (9 degrees F.) warmer than today. Over the past 550 million years, the Earth has normally been in the green area of Figure 1, the “Greenhouse” or optimal temperature regime. There are five periods when the Earth became very warm with average surface temperatures of more than 24 degrees C. or 75 degrees F. This area is called “hothouse” and is shaded in red in Figure 1. The blue area in Figure 1 is called the “icehouse” and we are living in the fourth or fifth icehouse period. Normally the Karoo Ice Age is considered one icehouse period, but it briefly returns to greenhouse conditions in the middle. The sharp cooling period labeled “KT Impact Winter” occurred 66 million years ago and was caused by a large asteroid striking the Earth near the Yucatan Peninsula in southern Mexico. The ejecta, which included a lot of SO2, from the crater caused a sudden cooling of the Earth and the extinction of all large animals, including the dinosaurs. This impact also marks the end of the Cretaceous Period and the beginning of the Tertiary. It is not considered an Ice Age, as it is too brief. In this article, the Jurassic-early Cretaceous Cool period will be considered an ice age, although the temperatures were not low enough to enter the icehouse state for any significant period.The maximum swing in temperature in Figure 1 is from 13 degrees to 28 degrees C. or an increase of 15 degrees C. (27 degrees F.) between 280 million years ago and 250 million years ago. This is from the depths of the Permo-Carboniferous icehouse to the peak of the Triassic hothouse. Tropical temperatures change more slowly than polar temperatures, compare Figure 1 to Figure 2.Figure 2. Change in global temperature in the tropics from Scotese. Over the past 550 million years there has been a steady decline in temperatures, but over the past 20 million years the tropical temperatures have increased 0.7 degrees C, whereas global temperatures have decreased four degrees into the last glacial maximum (LGM) 19,000 years ago and then increased two degrees to the present day. Source: (Scotese 2015).As shown in Figure 2, the global temperature of the tropics (roughly 23.5 degrees north latitude to 23.5 degrees south latitude) varies less than the average global temperature of the entire Earth’s surface (see Figure 1). This means that the temperatures in the polar regions vary a lot from warmer periods to cooler periods. In the cooler periods, like our current ice age, the polar temperatures are low enough for ice to survive the summer months and thus, form permanent ice caps. Ice reflects more solar radiant heat than the soil or ocean under it, which amplifies the cooling.Earth’s Ice AgesTHE KEY FACT IS UNTIL THE POLES MELT WE ARE IN AN ICE AGE.Surely no one could worry about the climate getting too hot if we remain mired in an ice age and melting the poles will not happen with snow especially early and record breaking snowstorms.If snowing ceased as predicted by all of the warmest scientists in 2000 including the political UNITED NATIONS IPCC this would be strong evidence of global warming as long as the cessation was over a long time period measured in centuries not weeks or decades. The fact more record snowy winters are happening around the world now than in 2000 is strong evidence that global warming is not happening.SNOWFALL Will Signal The Death Of The Global Warming MovementPosted: November 18, 2019 | Author: Jamie Spry |BREAKING : ‘A Very Rare And Exciting Event’ To The Rescue | ClimatismSNOWFALL will become “A very rare and exciting event…Children just aren’t going to know what snow is.”Dr David Viner – Senior scientist, climatic research unit (CRU)“Winters with strong frosts and lots of snowlike we had 20 years ago will no longer exist at our latitudes.”– Professor Mojib Latif (2000)“Good bye winter. Never again snow?” – Spiegel (2000)“Milder winter temperatures will decrease heavy snowstorms” – IPCC (2001)“End of Snow?” – NYTimes (2014)***WE all associate snowstorms with cold weather. But, the effects of snow on our climate and weather last long after the storm has passed. Due to snows reflective properties, its presence or absence influences patterns of heating and cooling over Earth’s surface more than any other single land surface feature.CLIMATE models from the 1970s have consistently predicted that CO2-induced global warming climate change should be causing a significant decline in total snow cover. However, Global snow cover has actually increased since at least the start of the record (Connolly et al, 2019), leading to some scepticism within the scientific community about the validity of the climate models.“WHAT THE ‘VAST BODY ‘ OF SCIENTIFIC ‘EXPERTS’ ASSURED US ABOUT SNOWCRU :IN 2000, climate expert Dr David Viner of the University of East Anglia’s Climate Research Unit (CRU) assured us that :Snowfall will become “A very rare and exciting event…Children just aren’t going to know what snow is.”Dr David Viner – Senior scientist, climatic research unit (CRU)”Let’s look at data and first hand observations of real weather starting with Australia where record snowfall is happening.Remember Australia endured a very early and record cold winter in 2019 that filled the mountains with snow. The ski resorts are happy and thriving.Australia ski resorts in heaven with record snowfall this year.Mother nature often causes a balance with an unusually cold winter followed by an unusually hot summer.The Snowy Mountains Is A Year-Round Attraction in AustraliaA region well worth visiting while on your Australia vacation is the Snowy Mountains. Ideal during both summer and winter months.The Snowy Mountains Is A Year-Round Attraction in Australia | GowayThe media have been fooled by this chaotic randomness and have ignored the record winter snowfall because it doesn’t fit their bias to prove runaway warming.IN fact the record mountain snowfall in Australia in 2019 winter (our summer) is making the climate colder through the albedo process of reflecting as much as 90% of sunlight away. Mountain snow climate impacts last beyond the winter cooling temperatures.The media are distorting reality once again. Wildfires do not have a continuing impact like the snowfall albedo.Are Australia’s wildfires natures balance from unusually cold winter (August 2019)? The August 9-12 weather event in Australia was one of the longest cold stretches and greatest snowfall totals so far in this century, according to climate and atmospheric scientists.”It was cold in Australia last weekend | EarthSky.orgKangaroos in the snow in Lyonville, in Victoria’s central highlands. Image via Nicholas Dunand/The Conversation.Australian climate and atmospheric scientists noted that it was one of the longest cold stretches and greatest snowfall totals in Australia in the 2000s. They said that, although snow falls on Australia’s mountains almost every year, it “only rarely” spreads down onto the plains and cities. And they explained:Last weekend’s event was probably the most significant snowfall since 2000 in parts of Victoria north of the ranges, and in southern inland New South Wales. In central and northern New South Wales, the last snowfall on this scale was in 2015, while in the hills around Melbourne it was on a par with 2008.THE SNOW THEY TOLD YOU WOULD “DISAPPEAR” KEEPS ON FALLINGCONTRARY to dire ‘expert’ prognostications and climate models to the contrary, global snowfall continues to fall in abundance, aided by ‘record-breaking cold temperatures’…Some say the alleged global warming cases an increase in moisture and this causes the increased snow. This is impossible as more moisture from warming does not explain the record cooling needed for the moisture to turn to snow.The story of snow is strong evidence that the global warming hypothesis is false because reality so contradicts the hypothesis of human caused warming.REFERENCESU.N. IPCC :IN 2001, the UN IPCC predicted diminished snowfalls as human CO2 increased, claiming that “milder winter temperatures will decrease heavy snowstorms” due to the activities of mankindpersonkind…IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeTHEY also forecast “warmer winters and fewer cold spells, because of climate change…”The moderate snowless winter predictions made sense because without winter snow spring and summers would warm up and so on leading to unprecedented warming. On the other hand with snowfall continuing and increasing the prediction of global warming will not happen.Record snowy winters are increasing putting the lie to global warming.ICELAND’S EMIGRATION CENTER DISAPPEARS UNDER SNOW: “WE’VE NEVER BEFORE HAD SNOW ON THIS SCALE”DECEMBER 20, 2019 CAP ALLON“We’ve never before had snow on this scale,” exclaimed Valgeir Þorvaldsson, director of the Icelandic Emigration Center in Hofsós, North Iceland [as reported by icelandmonitor].Located in a two-story house, the Emigration Center practically disappeared under a monster dumping of snow delivered by last week’s record-breaking storm.“When building these houses, it never occurred to us we’d have to shovel [snow] off these roofs. There are, I believe, 9 meters (30 ft) up to the gable of the biggest house, and the roofs are very steep, too,” continued Þorvaldsson.“Maybe this is why people emigrated to America,” he jokingly pondered.Rain and Snow on the Way as New Storm Hits Southern CaliforniaPOSTED 7:30 AM, DECEMBER 29, 2019, BY LOS ANGELES TIMES, UPDATED AT 10:28AM, DECEMBER 29, 2019Jay Shepherd, 4, plays in the snow just before the sun sets in Joshua Tree National Park on Dec. 27, 2019. (Credit: Francine Orr/Los Angeles Times)SNOWFALL Will Signal The Death Of The Global Warming MovementPosted: November 18, 2019 | Author: Jamie Spry |BREAKING : ‘A Very Rare And Exciting Event’ To The Rescue | ClimatismSNOWFALL will become “A very rare and exciting event…Children just aren’t going to know what snow is.”Dr David Viner – Senior scientist, climatic research unit (CRU)“Winters with strong frosts and lots of snowlike we had 20 years ago will no longer exist at our latitudes.”– Professor Mojib Latif (2000)“Good bye winter. Never again snow?” – Spiegel (2000)“Milder winter temperatures will decrease heavy snowstorms” – IPCC (2001)“End of Snow?” – NYTimes (2014)***WE all associate snowstorms with cold weather. But, the effects of snow on our climate and weather last long after the storm has passed. Due to snows reflective properties, its presence or absence influences patterns of heating and cooling over Earth’s surface more than any other single land surface feature.CLIMATE models from the 1970s have consistently predicted that CO2-induced global warming climate change should be causing a significant decline in total snow cover. However, Global snow cover has actually increased since at least the start of the record (Connolly et al, 2019), leading to some scepticism within the scientific community about the validity of the climate models.IRANMassive blizzard leaves Tehran a winter wonderland | The Times of IsraelMALLORCA, SPAINWhat?Snow in Mallorca?A premature onset of winter was troubling millions of Spaniards . In the northern half of the country, large parts of the country were covered with a thick and large white blanket early in the morning after heavy snowfall during the night. Snowfall fell to 700 meters in some regions. More than 80 roads, including major highways and highways, were closed or were nearly impassable for normal cars, the media said, citing the authorities.Was? Schnee auf Mallorca? | EuronewsWRITTEN BY PIERRE GOSSELIN ON NOV 14, 2019. POSTED IN LATEST NEWSN. Hemisphere In Hypothermic Shock! Record Cold, ‘Historic Snowstorms’….Freeze watches and warnings also extend as far south as Florida. And it’s only early November. And don’t expect to see many FFF activists show up at rallies protesting hot weather any time soon.Polar Bear Science site here also reports that the Hudson Bay in Canada has started freezing up earlier than normal three years in a row!Europe starting to get clobbered by snow, 2m in the AlpsMeanwhile cold has also spread across Europe, though not quite as brutal as what we’ve been seeing across North America.In central Europe, the Austrian online Heute here reports that “huge amounts of snow” are on the way for the Alps.German site http://Wetteronline.de reports here of “new, severe snowfalls in the Alps” with “up to two meters of fresh snow are possible in places up to the weekend” in Switzerland, Austria, and Northern Italy. “This is good news for winter sports enthusiasts – but the danger of avalanches is increasing.”Biggest November snowstorm in 40 yearsEven global warming child activist Greta Thunberg’s Sweden is getting hard hit by extreme cold and snow. Electroverse reports the Nordic country is suffering “its biggest November snowstorm in 40 years.”On November 10th, Mika tweeted that temps in northern Sweden fell 10 -34.5°C.Mika Rantanen@mikarantaneToday is the coldest morning so far during the ongoing winter season:-34.5°C in Sweden, -31.1°C in Norway and -30.6°C in Finland (not shown on the map).21411:31 PM - Nov 9, 2019Twitter Ads info and privacy96 people are talking about thisMost snow in 60 yearsThe German Ruhrkultur site reports how also Finland just saw “the coldest autumn temperature and the highest snow depth in at least 60 years” and that “the temperature in Enontekiö, a municipality in Finnish Lapland, dropped to 28.2°C on Tuesday 5 November.”Deepening cold across Siberia as well“On November 11 in Yakutia, the daily temperature never rose above −30°C (-22F),” reports the SOTT site here. “Some parts of Siberia were even colder: In Evenkia and the northern regions of the Krasnoyarsk Territory, the temperature dropped to −41 … −44°C.”SOTT comments (sarcastically): “I wonder how much ice will melt at −44°C (-47F).With all the early winter weather, it’s ridiculous to claim the globe is burning up. So it’s no wonder the alarmists have taken their climate ambulance to the far side of the globe, NSW Australia, and kept their narrow focus on brush fires.Read more at No Tricks ZoneN. Hemisphere In Hypothermic Shock! Record Cold, 'Historic Snowstorms'FMI NH Snowpack 2019-20ALARMIST U-TURN!NOW, of course, climate ‘scientists’ are trying to dig themselves out of snow that’s kept falling …Looking back at 65 years’ worth of statistics, Environment Canada’s senior climatologist David Phillips noted that since 1948, winter temperatures in the prairie regions have increased by an average of four degrees Celsius… Ironically, warmer weather can mean greater snowfall. “As we warm up, we may see more moisture, we may see more moist air masses, and therefore we could very well see more snow rather than less snow, because the air masses are going to be more moist and so therefore you’re going to be able to wring out more snow than you would be if it was dry air,” Phillips said.*UNFORTUNATELY for CO2-centric climatologists like David Phillips, attempting to ‘dig’ themselves out of their “end of snow” predictions, abundant snow requires cold air to proliferate …“The reality is cooling, not warming, increases snowfall.”“Interestingly, some scientists have stated that increasing snow is consistent with climate change because warmer air holds more moisture, more water vapor and this can result in more storms with heavy precipitation. The trick, of course, is having sufficient cold air to produce that snow. But note that 93% of the years with more than 60″ of snow in Boston were colder than average years. The reality is cooling, not warming, increases snowfall.”– Veteran meteorologist Barry BurbankWill The Snowiest Decade Continue? – CBS Boston***RETURN OF THE ‘POLAR VORTEX’NORTHERN Hemisphere winters have been particularly brutal over the past decade thanks to a climatic system known as the “Polar Vortex”.Will the increasing snowfall around the world ever stop? Maybe not. There is history of snowball earth millions of years ago due to albedo and global cooling where the earth became one big snowball.According to Al Gore and a number of climate ambulance chasers, Arctic sea ice in late summer should have long disappeared by now, see here..But then just a few years after, the Arctic sea ice area began to recover from its lows of 2007 and 2012. So immediately alarmists shouted that area was not really what mattered, but rather sea ice volume is what really counted. Okay, that made perfect sense. Mass is in fact what’s important, and not area, when worrying about polar ice disappearing.So naturally skeptics have since then been watching volume, which we were told by alarmists would shrink, and shrink, and shrink – until totally gone in late summer. In 2007 one US climate official declared the Arctic sea ice was in a “death spiral”.Those alarmist projections have since turned up totally falseFirst, looking at peak ice, which occurs around April 1st, using the data from the Danish meteorological Institute (DMI) here, we find that Arctic sea ice VOLUME has totally defied the downward death spiral trend projected by experts and their models.The chart above depicts Arctic sea ice volume on April 1st for the years 2003 to 2018, using the data from the DMI. Note the growing chasm between alarmist projections and reality.Humiliation of the alarmistsThe most closely watched measure of Arctic sea ice magnitude is the minimum that is typically reached in very late summer, i.e. around September 20.Here as well using the DMI data, I’ve plotted the September 20 Arctic sea ice going back to 2003.Here’s the result of the plot:Al Gore’s hysterical projections of ice-free Arctic late summers are exposed as an absolute sham. 2018 uses a conservative projected value.Today the doomsday scenarios and projections made 10 years ago have yet to show any signs of materializing. Late summer Arctic sea ice has been surprisingly stable over the past decade. Gore and alarmists fell into the trap of applying an idiotic polynomial curve extrapolation into the future.In fact there are indications that Arctic sea ice may be starting an upward trend as oceanic and solar cycles enter their cooler phases.Low sea ice also occurred in the pastThere’s no doubt that Arctic sea ice has dwindled considerably since it peaked back at around 1980, a time when climate scientists had warned the globe risked cooling into an ice age.Also, today’s Arctic sea ice amount is in the same neighborhood as it was back in the 1930s. Moreover, today’s levels are considerably higher than they were over a large part of the Holocene, which saw periods that were far warmer than today.Sea Ice Model Projections In A Death Spiral! Arctic Ice Volume Holds Steady For A Decade!If snow keeps increasing this would be catastrophic unlike the tepid evidence of global warming.SNOWBALL EARTH HAS HAPPENED IN THE PAST DUE TO NATURAL FORCES.This ends all life as we know it.The Snowball Earth hypothesis proposes that during one or more of Earth's icehouse climates, Earth's surface became entirely or nearly entirely frozen, sometime earlier than 650 Mya (million years ago).Ref. Snowball Earth - Wikipedia

Wonderful, but you cannot lose a battle when there is no war. Humans have little effect on the global climate. Industrial pollution is relevant to local climates causing cooling just like wildfires and volcanos. Human emissions of trace amounts of CO2 cannot make global warming any more than witches could make it stop raining.New research finds temperatures are declining in the short run for the last 5 years, then 300 years and in the long run of the last 5000 years. Yes, there is an increase in snowfall across the globe and this is the reason. Heavy winter snowfall and record colder temperatures have nothing to do with the state of Arctic ice where temperatures this year and for past decades are far below freezing every winter. No melting from winter cold. Look it us yourself. This is reality.How can Arctic winter at minus 15 F be melting? It cannot.Extensively-Referenced Study Of Past Scientists’ Global Temperature Estimates Suggests ‘No Change’ In 100 YearsBy Kenneth Richard on13. August 2020In the early 1900s, the globally-averaged distribution of calculated surface temperature estimates ranged between 14 and 15°C. For 1991-2018, HadCRUT, Berkeley, and NASA GISS also estimate today’s global temperature is about 14.5°C.Scientists estimating Earth’s surface temperature has been an ongoing pursuit since the early 19th century.A new study (Kramm et al., 2020) suggests the generally agreed-upon global temperature from 1877 to 1913 from dozens of calculated results was about 14.4°C.Problematically, HadCRUT, Berkley, and NASA GISS also indicate the 1991-2018 had a global surface temperature of about 14.5°C.This would suggest there has been “no change in the globally averaged near-surface temperature over the past 100 years”.Extensively-Referenced Study Of Past Scientists’ Global Temperature Estimates Suggests ‘No Change’ In 100 YearsNote this is the new Holocene T graph based on the revision from Harvard Research. The unexpected cooling has resulted in renaming the period the HOLOCENE CONUNDRUM — seeFaulty Hypothesis? NASA ERB Measurements Don’t Show Significant Radiative Budget DifferencesBy P Gosselin on28. February 2021NASA earth radiation budget measurement from satellite data don’t support global warming claims.Analyst blogger Zoe Phin downloaded and analyzed 10 gigabytes of NASA instrumental data on the earth’s radiation budget (ERB) fully covering the years 2003 to 2019 [site] [data].High clouds should be warming the planet, and low clouds cooling it, NASA says. Yet 16 years of their own satellite measurements don’t support the claim. Image: NASA.The idea is to see the effect of clouds at the surface, especially the so-called Upwelling Longwave Radiation (LW_UP).High clouds supposedly warm the planetBut first, NASA tells us high clouds are much colder than low clouds and the surface and so they radiate less energy to space than low clouds do. And because high clouds absorb energy so efficiently, they have the potential to raise global temperatures. In a world with high clouds, much of the energy gets captured in the atmosphere. High clouds make the world a warmer place. If more high clouds were to form, more heat energy radiating from the surface and lower atmosphere toward space would be trapped in the atmosphere, and Earth’s average surface temperature would climb.Low clouds said to cool the planetNASA also adds that low stratocumulus clouds – on the other hand – act to cool the Earth system because they are much thicker and not as transparent. This means they do not let as much solar energy reach the Earth’s surface. Instead, they reflect much of the solar energy back to space (their cloud albedo forcing is large).NASA adds that stratocumulus clouds radiate at nearly the same intensity as the surface and do not greatly affect the infrared radiation emitted to space (their cloud greenhouse forcing on a planetary scale is small). The net effect of these clouds is to cool the surface.But 16 years of satellite measurements tell different story!Zoe looked at 4 different types of observed LW_UP: All, Clr, AllNoAero, and Pristine. All is normal observed sky. Clr (clear) is no clouds. AllNoAero is All minus aerosols. Pristine is Clr minus aerosols.Since clouds are said to play an important role in Earth’s supposed greenhouse effect, and this effect leads to a supposed serious warming at the surface, we should see a very large difference between all these 4 scenarios.Very little differenceBut when looking at the results, Zoe finds there is very little difference. The difference in surface LW_UP between a Pristine sky (no clouds, no aerosols) and All sky is just 0.82 W/m², she finds.“I would even argue it might be ZERO. It’s only not zero because a satellite can’t measure the same scenario in the same place at the same time. They can only measure some place nearby or same place at another time,” reports Zoe. “Even if I’m wrong on this, this value is still very unimpressive.”Hardly changes outgoing surface radiationNext the former Wall Street analyst looks at downwelling longwave radiation (LW_DN) and longwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere (TOA_LW):and compares the averages side by side for all 3:Series Average  clr_toa_lw_up 262.503 all_toa_lw_up 237.889 pristine_toa_lw_up 262.979 allnoaero_toa_lw_up 238.168  clr_sfc_lw_dn 317.924 all_sfc_lw_dn 347.329 pristine_sfc_lw_dn 316.207 allnoaero_sfc_lw_dn 346.359  clr_sfc_lw_up 397.445 all_sfc_lw_up 398.167 pristine_sfc_lw_up 397.387 allnoaero_sfc_lw_up 398.129 “Clearly not the case”According to the greenhouse gas theory, infrared absorbing gases are supposed to be preventing radiation from reaching space, thus causing warming at the surface.“Well we clearly see that’s not case. If clouds (water vapor + aerosols) hardly changes outgoing surface radiation, then the whole hypothesis is in error,” Zoe concludes. “Less top-of-atmosphere outgoing radiation doesn’t cause surface heating and thus more radiation from the surface, despite the increase in downwelling radiation.”See Zoe’s article on this.Posted in CO2 and GHG, Misc. | 6 ResponsesDoomsday AMOC “Tipping” Claimed In ‘Nature’ Already Refuted…New Study: AMOC “Shows No Decline”By P Gosselin on27. February 2021Share this...A recent study appearing in Nature, “Current Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation weakest in last millennium“, authored by Caesar et al, hints at a global climate system on the verge of tipping out of control.According to their findings, the weakening of the so-called Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current (AMOC) in the 20th century is “unprecedented”, and likely because of man-made climate change.The paper claims that there was “a long and relatively stable period” that was then followed by “an initial weakening starting in the nineteenth century, followed by a second, more rapid, decline in the mid-twentieth century.” The AMOC has since reached “the weakest” level in recent decades.Rahmstorf’s doomsday scenarioAlso not surprising: one of the authors of the doomsday-like paper is climate über-alarmist researcher Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Climate Institute in Germany.According to Rahmstorf, the Gulf Stream “passing its tipping point” would lead to significant northern Atlantic sea level rise, a regional cooling and “massive effects on the entire ecosystem in the North Atlantic”.No consensus – contradicted even before releaseBut the paper’s claims were contradicted already six days before its release. So much for consensus.A new paper by Worthington et al, “A 30-year reconstruction of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation shows no decline“, tells us there’s been no decline, let alone a “weakest state”.Image Source: Worthington et al., 2021The study, appearing in the journal Ocean Science, finds that although a decline in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength was observed between 2004 and 2012 and persisted until 2017, “direct observations are sparse prior to 2004, giving only ‘snapshots’ of the overturning circulation.”Previous models ignored deep circulation changesThe Worthington study also finds that previous studies used linear models based on upper-layer temperature anomalies but that they ignored “changes in the deep circulation that are beginning to emerge in the observations of AMOC decline”.The authors led by Worthington say they used a higher-fidelity empirical model of the AMOC variability based on many more factors and created an AMOC time series extending from 1981 to 2016.“No decline”They found that their more comprehensive time series shows no overall AMOC decline. “Our model has not revealed an AMOC decline indicative of anthropogenic climate change (Stocker et al., 2013) nor the long-term decline reported in sea-surface-temperature-based reconstructions of the AMOC (Caesar et al., 2018).”Nor that of Caesar et al 2021, for that matter.Guess which results the media jumped on.Posted in Oceans | 5 ResponsesAntarctica Has Been COOLING Over The Past Quarter Century, NASA’s Surface Station Data ShowBy P Gosselin on26. February 2021NASA mean annual temperature data going back a quarter century show no warming over AntarcticaBy Kiryeand Pierre GosselinWhere’s the warming and ice melt? Today we revisit 13 critical stations located on and around the Antarctic Peninsula.They are important because alarmists like to tell and scare us that the ice mass on the Antarctic Peninsula is threatening to melt down – which would cause sea level to rise up to six meters globally- think of your suffering children and grandchildren.To examine the trends at these crucial stations, we plot the data from NASA going back to 1996, i.e. a quarter century. The following map shows their respective station locations:Figure 1: Map of plotted stations. Image: NASA.Six of six island stations coolingFirst we examine six stations located on the South Orkney or South Shetland islands:Data source: NASA GISS, Version 4 unadjusted.All six stations located on the South Orkney or South Shetland islands show a cooling trend when looking at the mean annual temperature since 1996. Here we see no signs of warming at all.7 of 7 peninsula stations coolingNext we plot the NASA mean annual temperature for seven stations located on the Antarctic Peninsula. Remember: alarmists like making the public think the sea ice there will melt and cause sea levels to rise some 6 meters – soon!Data: NASA Version 4 unadjusted dataAll seven stations at the Antarctic Peninsula show cooling, or no trend at all.In total, that’s 13 of 13 stations showing a cooling trend since 1996 in that particular region. Where’s the warming?No trend across Antarctica in three decadesLast year we looked at 19 stations scattered across Antarctica and found no unusual climate trends had taken place there over the past 31 years.Posted in Antarctic | 2 ResponsesYet Another Model-Based Claim Of Anthropogenic Climate Forcing CollapsesBy Kenneth Richard on25. February 2021High-resolution climate models have projected a “decline of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) under the influence of anthropogenic warming” for decades (Lobelle et al., 2020). New research that assesses changes in the deeper layers of the ocean (instead of “ignoring” these layers like past models have) shows instead that the AMOC hasn’t declined for over 30 years.The North Atlantic has been rapidly cooling in recent decades (Bryden et al., 2020, Fröb et al., 2019). A cooling of “more than 2°C” in just 8 years (2008-2016) and a cooling rate of -0.78°C per decade between 2004 and 2017 has been reported for nearly the entire ocean region just south of Iceland. The cooling persists year-round and extends from the “surface down to 800 m depth”Image Source: Bryden et al., 2020Image Source: Fröb et al., 2019Those who favor an anthropogenic explanation for these rather inconvenient cooling trends have leaned on the climate models that say the ocean’s dominant heat transport mechanism – the AMOC – has been declining in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing.But now a new study (Worthington et al., 2021) throws cold water on this claim too.Image Source: Worthington et al., 2021Reconstructing over 30 years of AMOC variability (1981-2016), the authors use a “higher-fidelity empirical model of AMOC variability” that, unlike past assessments, does not “ignore changes in the deep circulation”.The authors do indeed find there was a brief dip in the AMOC from 2004-2012. But even this temporary decline was dominated by internal variability rather than being associated with anthropogenic forcing.In fact, Worthington and colleagues have determined that there has been “no overall AMOC decline” since monitoring began in 1981. This contradicts the results of high-resolution climate models.Image Source: Worthington et al., 2021Consequently, the cooling in the North Atlantic can no longer be dismissed as a response to an anthropogenically-weakened AMOC.Something else is driving the cooling.Note farmers vainly seed clouds with small airplanes to make it rain mostly without success of course this is unlike the warmist hypothesis of human caused global warming except for the need for humility about what governs the climate - not us!Science News'Cloud seeding' not effective at producing rain as once thought, new research showsDate:November 1, 2010Source:American Friends of Tel Aviv UniversitySummary:“Recent research in Israel reveals that the common practice of cloud seeding with materials such as silver iodide and frozen carbon dioxide may not be as effective as it had been hoped. In the most comprehensive reassessment of the effects of cloud seeding over the past fifty years, new findings have dispelled the notion that seeding is an effective mechanism for precipitation enhancement.Throwing seeds into the windDuring the course of his study, Prof. Alpert and his colleagues looked over fifty years' worth of data on cloud seeding, with an emphasis on the effects of seeding on rainfall amounts in a target area over the Sea of Galilee in the north of Israel.”'Cloud seeding' not effective at producing rain as once thought, new research showsThe climate is and has always been changing not because of the puny and arrogant influence of humans. Rather Because of incredible global forces such as changing ice age inter glacial weather, solar cycles, cloud formation, volcanos, ocean currents, snow albedo, seasonal variability especially from the Earth’s obliquity for staters.“New scientific inquiries often as not entail a form of logic known as abduction, or abductive reasoning. Another name for this is "inference to the best explanation." Another way of putting it might be"make your best guess with the data you've got." Inquiries that rely on historical data often begin and end at the level of abduction if there's no possibility of acquiring new evidence.Abduction can also sometimes act as a hypothesis gateway, giving cause for acceptance, even if only provisional, of a hypothesis... or dismissal of a hypothesis as prima facie implausible. Global warmism manifestly deserves the second response. The poison pill is the sheer paucity of CO2 in the atmosphere. Just in case you're still not convinced of the magnitude of that paucity, consider this image:While water vapor is known to be a less potent "greenhouse" gas than CO2, it utterly dwarfs puny little CO2 in terms of sheer quantity.This much we -- skeptics and advocates of global warmism alike -- agree on: CO2 is a "greenhouse" gas (the simplest high school science project can demonstrate that); atmospheric CO2 has increased during the industrial era due to human activity; this has added more heat energy to earth's atmosphere and surface than previously. However, this is not enough to break through the paucity-implausibility gateway. To accept the global warmist hypothesis that anthropogenic global warming is leading to climate catastrophe, we need to know not just that industrial-era anthropogenic CO2 emissions are merely effectual; this variable must be shown to be determinative.This means that anthropogenic CO2 emissions must be examined in full context with numerous other climate variables such as solar activity, volcanism, magnetic field shifts, etc. An inquiry like this is certain to be dauntingly, perhaps overwhelmingly, complex if conducted like authentic, inductive science. Global warmism advocates have shamelessly evaded this monumental evidence burden -- and the burden is entirely on them -- by resorting to garbage-in-garbage-out computer models, even outright data fraud and deceitfulness.Global warmism remains the most colossal hoax ever perpetrated.*numbers correctedhttp://www.melaniemorgan.com/146-news/3448-my-two-favorite-questions-for-global-warmists.htmlThe weakest climate forcing effect (no contest with say volcanos) if at all comes from minute and natural amounts of CO2 plant food at 0.04% with human contribution only 4% of natural or 0.0117 % . Water vapor is far more important.Can Water Vapor Help Forecast When a Volcano Will Blow?Ash cloud from an explosion at Sabancaya Volcano on 16 November 2016. Credit: OVI INGEMMETA widely used technique to monitor sulfur dioxide was tweaked to focus on water vapor at Peru’s Sabancaya Volcano. Results show that the volcano steamed up prior to its 2016 eruption.SOURCE: Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid EarthAsh cloud from an explosion at Sabancaya Volcano on 16 November 2016. Credit: OVI INGEMMETBy Emily Underwood10 July 2017Can Water Vapor Help Forecast When a Volcano Will Blow? - EosThe inapt named greenhouse climate effects (the earth has none of the characteristics of a closed greenhouse) is only a hypothesis and not settled science, although there is no doubt about two things.Water vapor is so much larger and more important in our climate making CO2 immaterial as a cooling or warming force and -Water vapor will cause cooling more often than warming depending of the origin of the source of evaporation for the water vapor whether from the tropics or the poles will determine if it has a cooling or warming impact.The science of water vapor’s climate effect is well researched and reveals a this surprising contradiction that is cools as often or more so than it warms and this is not well understood by the public.The Role Of Water Vapor In The Climate SystemWater vapor is the link between the surface and the atmosphere in the water or hydrologic cycle. As is shown in Figure 3, almost all water vapor in the atmosphere originates at the surface of the Earth, where water evaporates from the ocean and the continents owing to the Sun's radiation, and is transpired by plants and respired by animals into the atmosphere. Once in the atmosphere, water vapor can be transported horizontally and vertically by the three-dimensional circulation of the atmosphere and may condense to form liquid water or ice crystals in clouds. The cycle is completed when water returns to the Earth's surface in various forms of precipitation such as rain or snow. This cycle is closely tied to atmospheric circulation and temperature patterns.Figure 3.The global water or hydrologic cycle, showing estimates of contents of major reservoirs and rates of transfer or fluxes of water between them. (Image used by permission of the National Academy of Science [1987].)The hydrologic cycle is strongly influenced by the nature of the surface of the Earth. Hydrological processes operate on different timescales over the ocean and land. Over the ocean, surface temperature, which varies slowly, is a major controlling factor, while over land, coupled effects of surface temperature and available soil moisture, which can change relatively quickly, are important.Rivers carry water from land to oceans, from which we infer that there must be more precipitation than evaporation over land. To achieve balance, there must then be more evaporation than precipitation over oceans. The excess water vapor is transported from oceanic to continental areas and precipitates.Water vapor transport is an important factor in the determination of global climate. Movement of water vapor in the atmosphere represents the movement of energy in the form of latent heat. Upon condensation, this latent energy is converted into sensible heat, or heat that can be felt, and thus represents a source of atmospheric heating. This condensation heating is a major source of energy for the circulation systems associated with weather and climate.Water Vapor in the Climate SystemReferences -Can you breathe water vapor?Yes! There can actually be a whole lot of water vapor in the air we breathe. The word for how much water vapor there is in the air is "humidity". W.Water vapour comprises one quarter of 1 % of the mass of the atmosphere—equivalent to just two and half centimetres of liquid over the entire Earth (atmospheric water in the form of liquid droplets and ice adds less than one hundredth to this minuscule total). The behaviour of this atmospheric water nonetheless governs water availability on land. Terrestrial life, including human life, depends on and impacts this availability. Understanding these links and vulnerabilities is vital if we want to avoid the water scarcity, droughts and floods that may otherwise result from changing land cover.Global vegetation and climate are linked in both directions: when climate changes, so will vegetation, and when vegetation changes, so will the climate. These links are more important, more complex, and more poorly characterised than most people realise.Water availability raises more tangible concerns for most people than do temperature and carbon. In any case, those concerned with temperature recognise 1) that around half the solar energy that falls on land is converted into the evaporation of water thus cooling the land surface (Pokorny et al. 2010; Wang and Dickinson 2012), 2) that water vapour is the dominant greenhouse gas on our planet (Ravishankara 2012; Sherwood et al. 2010) and 3) that the distribution of clouds and snow cover exert a major influence on planetary albedo (the proportion of incident light reflected back into space) and energy balance (Donohoe and Battisti 2011; He et al. 2014). Those concerned with carbon recognise that water is the most limiting factor for terrestrial ecosystem carbon uptake, and that uncertainties over water imply uncertainties over biomass and carbon fixation (Polis 1999; Good et al. 2013; Bernacchi and VanLoocke 2015; Thorley et al. 2015; Viglizzo et al. 2016; Taylor et al. 2017; Zhu et al. 2017). Furthermore, those concerned with environmental conservation, stability and the maintenance of species diversity recognise both the significance of freshwater biodiversity (supporting over 126,000 species of plants and animals, many of them vulnerable, on 0.8% of the world’s surface, Garcia-Moreno et al. 2014) and the links between terrestrial diversity and moisture (Kreft and Jetz 2007; Sheil et al. 2016; Viglizzo et al. 2015).Forests, atmospheric water and an uncertain future: the new biology of the global water cycleIt’s Water Vapor, Not the CO2ACS Climate Science Toolkit | NarrativesRemark: “The Earth has certainly been warming since we have added so much CO2 to the atmosphere from fossil fuel burning.”Reply: “Forget the CO2. Water vapor is the most important greenhouse gas. It controls the Earth’s temperature.”It’s true that water vapor is the largest contributor to the Earth’s greenhouse effect. On average, it probably accounts for about 60% of the warming effect. However, water vapor does not control the Earth’s temperature, but is instead controlled by the temperature. This is because the temperature of the surrounding atmosphere limits the maximum amount of water vapor the atmosphere can contain. If a volume of air contains its maximum amount of water vapor and the temperature is decreased, some of the water vapor will condense to form liquid water. This is why clouds form as warm air containing water vapor rises and cools at higher altitudes where the water condenses to the tiny droplets that make up clouds.Science: Slowing Rise in Global Temperature Linked to Declining Stratospheric Water VaporA mysterious drop in water vapor in Earth’s stratosphere has likely contributed to the recent slowdown in increasing global surface temperatures, according to new research in Science.Water vapor distribution and radiative and transport processes that influence the abundance of water vapor and the temperature of the earth/atmosphere system.[Image courtesy of K. Rosenlof]Water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas—it absorbs sunlight and re-emits heat into Earth’s atmosphere. The findings reveal that stratospheric water vapor has been an important driver of global climate change over the past decade.“Stratospheric water vapor has played a significant role in the ups and downs in the rate of global warming of the past few decades,” said Susan Solomon, Senior Scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and lead author of the study. “It’s amazing how narrow the layer is that is doing this.”The paper was published online at the Science Express website on Thursday 28 January.Using a combination of data and models, Solomon and colleagues show that a decline in the concentration of water vapor in the stratosphere around the year 2000 had an effect on global average surface temperatures roughly between the years 2000 and 2009.In particular, lower stratospheric water vapor has probably been a significant factor in the flattening of global average temperatures since 2000, acting to slow the rate of warming by about 25%, the researchers report.Moreover, the authors show that the amount of water vapor in the stratosphere probably increased between 1980 and 2000, a period of more rapid global warming. Although it remains unclear why water vapor levels have recently decreased, the results of the study signal how important the concentration of stratospheric water vapor might be to Earth’s climate.“This doesn’t change the view that the world has warmed over the last 100 years or so, but it does help us understand why it’s not warming quite as fast in the past decade as it did in the decade before that,” said Solomon.One of the next steps in research on stratospheric water vapor will include collecting more observations and targeting key regions.“It’s an exciting issue for modeling too—climate modeling has been focused on the need for high horizontal resolution, to get the climate rate not just averaged over a continent but in a particular spot,” Solomon said. “This finding tells us that we also have to worry about resolution as the atmosphere goes up.” Science: Slowing Rise in Global Temperature Linked to Declining Stratospheric Water Vapor

Great question. Unfortunately, when you ask anything climate-change-related, you will be answered by folks who have agendas. Their vested interests and ideological commitments all too often take priority over such old-fashioned concerns as honesty and factuality, so you do need to keep your critical-thinking hat on and be skeptical of both “sides.” (And yes, there really are two sides).For instance, Roger Fjellstad Olsen’s answer begins:No. Because he is not an expert on climate change. Michaels is a well known climate misinformer and think tank talking head for fossil fuels. Like most of the denier “experts”.(Note that Mr Olsen strangely fails to specify what Dr Michaels is a “denier” of. It certainly isn’t climate change—Dr Michaels has publicly stated that climate change is real hundreds of times.)Consider the foundation of Mr Olsen’s case against Dr Michaels:Because he is not an expert on climate change.But is this actually the case, or is it just Olsen’s way of saying “I, Roger Fjellstad Olsen, disagree with Dr Michaels?”Well, the Society of Environmental Journalists—which calls Dr Michaels a “skeptic and/or contrarian”—acknowledges that Michaels has following credentials.(Note: In the interests of space I had to omit huge chunks—indicated by […]—from Dr Michaels’ CV. For example, I cut out every single peer-reviewed scientific paper he authored between 1985 and 2001, and then some.) EDUCATION   A.B. Biological Sciences, l971, University of Chicago  S.M. Biology, 1975, University of Chicago  Ph.D. Special Graduate Committee on Ecological Climatology, 1979  University of Wisconsin-Madison  Dissertation: Atmospheric Anomalies and Crop Yields in  North America  PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE (Abbreviated)   Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin, 1976-1979.  Research and Project Assistant;  Department of Environmental Sciences  University of Virginia  Assistant Professor, l980-1986  Associate Professor, 1986-1995  Professor, 1996  Virginia State Climatologist l980-present  Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies, Cato Institute, 1992-Present  Visiting Scientist, Marshall Institute, 1996-Present  PROFESSIONAL SOCIETIES/AWARDS   Sigma Xi, The Scientific Honor Society  American Meteorological Society  (Program Chair, Committee on Applied Climatology, 1988-9)  (President, Central Virginia Chapter, 1986-87)  American Association for the Advancement of Science  American Association of State Climatologists  (President, 1987-88; Executive Board, 1986-89)  Association of American Geographers  Who's Who Worldwide/Platinum 1992-present  American Library Association: "Best Government Publications Worldwide"   award in 1994 for Virginia Climate Advisory  Association of American Geographers, 2003, co-author of climate science  "Paper of the Year".  COURSES OF INSTRUCTION   EVSC 100A/USEM 172: The Greenhouse Effect and Public Policy  EVSC 451: Undergraduate Synoptic Analysis  EVSC 447: Applied Climatology  EVAT 794: Climate-Ecosystem Dynamics  EVAT 796: Advanced Climatology   [...]  PUBLICATIONS   Senior Author unless otherwise noted  *Refereed Serial Publication, Book, or Book Chapter **Conference Proceeding with Prescreened Review ***Technical Report   l977. A Predictive Model for Wheat Yield in Sonora, Mexico. University of Wisconsin, Institute for Environmental Studies, Report #73. University of Wisconsin--Madison, 53706. 17pp. ***  1977. An Aggregated National Model for Wheat Yield in India. University of Wisconsin, Institute for Environmental Studies, Report #74. University of Wisconsin--Madison, 53706. 17pp.***  l978. A Predictive Model for Winter Wheat Yield in the U.S. Great Plains. University of Wisconsin, Institute for Environmental Studies, Report #94. University of Wisconsin--Madison, 53706. 44pp.***  1979. A Simple Large Area Crop/Climate Model for United States Winter Wheat. American Meteorological Society, 14th Conf. on Agric. and For. Meteor., Amer. Met. Soc., Minneapolis MN, pp 64-67.**  l981. The Climatic Sensitivity of 'Green Revolution' Wheat Culture in Sonora, Mexico, Envi. Consv. 8, 307-312.*  1981. Virginia's Climate. University of Virginia News Letter, Vol. 57, no.5, 17-20. (B.P. Hayden, Senior Author)***  1981. Comparison of the Climatic Sensitivity of "Green Revolution" Wheat Culture to that in the United States Great Plains. American Meteorological Society, 15th Conf. on Agric. and For. Meteor., Amer. Met. Soc., Anaheim CA, pp106-109.**  1982. The Response of the 'Green Revolution' to Climatic Variability. Cli. Change 4, 255-271.*  l982. Five Tropical Systems on Similar Tracks. Mon. Wea. Rev. 110, 883-885.*  l982. Atmospheric Pressure Patterns, Climatic Change, and Winter Wheat Yields in North America. Geoforum 13, 263-273.*  1982. Determination of the Climatic Component of Southern Pine Beetle Host Susceptibility with Multivariate Statistical Methods. Progress Report, USDA Cooperative Agreement 59/2513/1/3/006/0. 24pp.***  1982. Statistical-Dynamic Models for Virginia Corn Yields. Final Report, USDA Cooperative Agreement 58/319T/1/0308. 50pp., and addendum of 13pp.***  l983. Weather and the Southern Pine Beetle in Atlantic Coastal and Piedmont Regions. American Meteorological Society, 16th Conf. on Agric. and For. Meteor., Amer. Met. Soc., Fort Collins CO, pp 241-244.**  1983. Statistical-Dynamic Models for Virginia Corn Crops. American Meteorological Society, l6th Conf on Agric. and For. Meteor., Amer. Met. Soc., Fort Collins CO, pp 150-153. (T.J. Smith, Senior Author)**  1983. Improved Specification of the Climatic Component of Southern Pine Beetle Host Susceptibility with Multivariate Statistical Methods. Progress Report, USDA/UVa Cooperative Agreement 5-29309. 15pp.***  l983. Temporal and Spatial Changes in Mesoscale Climatic Patterns. American Meteorological Society, 2nd Conf. on Climatic Variations, Amer. Met. Soc., New Orleans LA, p20.**  1983. Price, Weather and "Acreage Abandonment" in Western Great Plains Wheat Culture. J. Clim. and Appl. Met.22, 1296-1303.*  1983. Climate and High Yielding Variety Wheat Yields. Geoforum 14, 441-446.*  l984. Modification of MOS-Derived Thunderstorm Probabilities over Complex Terrain with Continental Scale Upper Air Data. American Meteorological Society, 10th Conference on Weather Forecasting and Analysis. Amer. Met. Soc., Tampa FL, pp 160-164**.    [...]    2002 Abrupt Climate Noise. Energy and Environment 13, 19-20.*  2002 Development of a Discriminant Analysis Mixed Precipitation (DAMP)  Forecast Model for mid-Atlantic Winter Storms. 13th Conf. On Applied  Climatology, American Meteorological Society, Portland OR, 106-111**  (J.D. Hux, Senior Author)  2002 Climate Change Adaptations: Trends in Human Mortality Responses to Summer Heat in the United States. 15th conf on Biometeorology, Aerobiology, Kansas City, Paper 9B1.** (R.E. Davis, Senior Author).  2002 Spatial Pattern of Human Mortality Seasonality in U.S. Cities since 1964. 15th Conf. Of Biometeorology, Aerobiology, Kansas City, Paper 2B2** (R.E. Davis, Senior Author).  2003 Do Facts Matter Anymore? Energy and Environnment 14, 323-326.*  2003 Science or Political Science? An Assessment of the U.S. National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change. In Gough, M., Ed., Politicizing Science: The Alchemy of Policymaking. Hoover, Palo Alto. 313pp.*  2003 Das logische Paradigma einer gemaisigen glbalen Erwarming. VDI-Gesellschaft Energietecknik, Koln, Germany, 1-38.**  2003 Test for harmful collinearity among predictor variables used in modeling global temperature. Climate Research 24, 15-18.* (D.H. Douglass, Senior Author)  2003 Decadal changes in summer mortality in U.S. cities. Inter. Jour Biomet. 47, 166-175* (R. E. Davis, Senior Author).  2003 Changing heat-related mortality in the United States. Envir. Health Perspectives 111, 1712-1718.* (R.E. Davis, Senior Author) Climate Science "Paper of the Year", Association of American Geographers.   2003 Winter mortality, climate, and climate change in U.S. Cities. 37th Canadian Met. And Ocean. Soc. Cong., Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.*** (R.E. Davis, senior author)  2004 Trends in Precipitation on the Wettest Days of the Year across the Contiguous United States. Int. J. Climatology 24, 1873-1882.*  2004 Meltdown: The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists, Politicians and the Media. Cato Books, Washington DC.* 272pp + illustrations.  2004 Economic Signals in Global Temperature Histories. 14th Conf. on Applied Climatology, American Meteorological Society, Seattle WA. Paper no. J1.1.  2004 A Test for Corrections for Extraneous Signals in Gridded Surface Temperature Data.* (R. McKittrick, Senior Author)Climate Research 26, 159-174.  2004 Changing Heatwave Mortality in U.S. Cities.** (R.E. Davis, Senior Author) 14th Conf. on Applied Climatology, American Meteorological Society, Seattle WA. Paper no J8.4.  2004 Seasonality of Climate-human Mortality Relationships in U.S. Cities and Impacts of Climate Change.* (R.E. Davis, Senior Author) Climate Research 26, 61-76.  2004 Heat Wave Mortality in Large U.S. Cities.** (R.E. Davis, Senior Author) 16th Conf. on Biometeorology and Aerobiology, American Meteorological Society, Vancouver BC. Paper no A6.3.  2004 Disparity of Tropospheric and Surface Temperature Trends: New Evidence.* (D.H. Douglass, Senior Author) Geophysical Res. Lett. 31 doi: 10.1029/2004GL0212  Michaels, P.J., Knappenberger, P.C. and C. Lansea, 2005. Extended Comment On: "Impacts of CO2-Induced Warming on Simulated Hurricane Intensity and Precipitation: Sensitivity to the Choice of Model and Convective Scheme". Journal of Climate, 18, 5179-5182.*   Michaels, P.J., (Ed.), 2005. Shattered Consensus: The True State of Global Warming. Rowman and Littlefield, Lanham MD. 304pp.*  Michaels, P.J., 2005. False Impressions: Misleading Statements, Glaring Omissions, and Erroneous Conclusions in the IPCC's Summary for Policymakers, 2001. In Shattered Consensus, pp 1-9.*  Michaels, P.J., Knappenberger, P.C., and R.E. Davis, 2006. Sea-Surface Temperatures and Tropical Cyclones in the Atlantic Basin, 1982-2005. Geophysical Research Letters, accepted in final form, April, 2006.*  Michaels, P.J., Knappenberger, P.C., and R.E. Davis, 2005. Sea Surface Temperature and Tropical Cyclone Intensity: Breaking the Paradigm. 15th Conference On Applied Climatology, American Meteorological Society, Savannah GA, June 19-23. Paper 2.4.**  Davis, R. E., Knappenberger, P.C., Michaels, P.J., and W. M. Novicoff, 2005. Changing Heat Wave Sensitivity in U.S. Cities. 15th Conference On Applied Climatology, American Meteorological Society, Savannah GA, June 19-23. Paper 4.6.**  Davis, R.E., Knappenberger, P.C., Michaels, P.J., and W.M. Novicoff, 2005. Evidence of Adaptation to Increasing Heat Wave Intensity and Duration in U.S. Cities. 17th International Congress on Biometeorology, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Bavaria, Germany, September 5-9.**  Davis, R. E., Michaels, P.J., and P.C. Knappenberger, 2006. Global Warming and Atlantic Hurricanes. 2006 Annual Meeting, Association of American Geographers, Chicago IL, March 7-11.**  INVITED LECTURES AND TESTIMONY   Environmental Sciences Department Seminar, l980, 1986 (Univ. of  Virginia)  New Mexico State University, 1981 (Las Cruces NM)  Virginia Farm Bureau, l981, l982, l983  Virginia Small Grains Conference, l981, 1988 (Fredericksburg,  Williamsburg)  Environmental Sciences Undergraduate Seminar, l982, l983, 1985,  1987, 1990, 1992 (Univ. of Virginia)  Sigma Xi, University of Virginia, l982  Economics Honor Society, J. Madison University, l983 (Harrisonburg)  Colorado State University, Atm. Sci. Dept. Seminar 1983 (Fort  Collins CO)  Virginia Tech Short Course on Viticulture, l984 (Charlottesville)  American Meteorological Society, Central Virginia Chapter, l984  (Charlottesville)  National Academy of Sciences, Commission on Life Life Sciences,  l985 (Toronto)  University of Virginia Institute of Government, l985  University of Virginia Blandy Experimental Farm, 1986 (Boyce)  Virginia Mosquito Control Commission, 1986 (Williamsburg)  Virginia Water Resources Research Center, l986 (2), 1988 (Blacksburg)  Virginia Air Pollution Control Board, 1986 (Virginia Beach)  Virginia Tech Extension Service, l987, 1988 (Williamsburg)  Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Colorado State  University, 1987 (Fort Collins)  Virginia Agricultural Chemical and Soil Fert. Assn. 1988 (Norfolk)  U.S. Geological Survey, Advisory Committee on Water Data, 1988 (New  Orleans)  University of Delaware, Geography Dept. Seminar 1988 (Newark DE)   [...]   Western Business Roundtable [Carefree AZ] 11/0  Virginia Tech, Program in Natural Resources [Alexandria VA] 2/06  American University, Issues Forum [Washington] 2/06  Marshall Institute Briefing, House of Representatives 2/06  Piedmont Master Gardeners [Charlottesville] 3/06  University of North Carolina College Republicans [Chapel Hill] 3/06  North Carolina Climate Commission [Raleigh] 3/06  John Locke Foundation [Raleigh] 3/06  HSBC Bank Leadership Forum [London] 4/06  JLT Insurance Institute [Lugano, Switzerland] 5/06  Virginia Academy of Sciences Negus Lecture 5/06  Albemarle County Farm Bureau 8/06  Bavarian-American Exchange Program [Washington] 8/06  Virginia Manufacturers Association [Richmond] 9/06  Heritage Foundation [Washington 9/06]  Cato Institute, Club 200 Seminar [Greenbrier WV] 9/06  Heritage Foundation [Washington] 10/06  Oberlin College General Lecture Series [Oberlin OH] 10/06  Richmond Rotary 10/06  North Carolina Forestry Association [Southern Pines NC] 10/06  University of Georgia, Geography Department Seminar [Athens GA] 11/06  Western Business Roundtable [Beaver Creek CO] 11/06  Chesapeake Bay Foundation [Edgewater MD] 12/06   *Top Ten Speaking Platforms in the U.S. (According to Fortune 250 CEOs)   THE VIRGINIA CLIMATE ADVISORY  The Advisory is a quarterly publication of the State Climatology Office, targeted for Education, Governmental Agencies, and the educated layman. Current circulation is approximately 4,000.In 1993, the Advisory was selected by the American Library Association as one of the 60 "best government information sources" in the world.   1980. 4 (1) Degree-days and energy usage in Virginia. 27pp.  l980. 4 (2) Modelling soybean/climate relationships. 24pp.  l980. 4 (3) History of tropical cyclones in Virginia. 33pp.  l981. 4 (4) History of drought in Virginia. 27pp.   1981. 5 (1) Satellite climatology. 26pp.  1981. 5 (2) Acid rainfall in Virginia. 26pp.  1981. 5 (3) Winter severity over Virginia. 26pp.  1982. 5 (4) Coastal cyclogenesis. 26pp.   1982. 6 (1) History of tornadoes in Virginia. 26pp.  l982. 6 (2) Lightning and damaging thunderstorms in Virginia. 26pp.  l982. 6 (3) Thunderstorm patterns over Virginia. 26pp.   l983. 6 (4) Virginia wind patterns. 26pp.   l983. 7 (1) Virginia fog frequency and distribution. 26pp.  l983. 7 (2) Origin and distribution of summertime haze over  Virginia. 26pp.  l983. 7 (3) Mountain temperature regimes. 26pp.  l984. 7 (4) The Carbon Dioxide controversy. 26pp.   1984. 8 (1) Precipitation and Elevation. 30pp.  1984. 8 (2) Improvements for Virginia Thunderstorm Forecasts. 30pp.  1984. 8 (3) Vineyard Microclimate. 30pp.  l985. 8 (4) Objective Improvement of Local Temperature Forecasts. 30pp.   1985. 9 (1) Radar Climatology of Piedmont Thunderstorms. 30pp.  1985. 9 (2) Cumulus Clusters. 30pp.  1985. 9 (3) Hurricane Gloria. 30pp.  1986. 9 (4) Winter History since 1890. 30pp.   1986. 10 (1) Climate and High-Level Nuclear Waste Disposal. 30pp.  1986. 10 (2) Carbon Dioxide/Climate Revisited. 30pp.  1986. 10 (3) Virginia Acid Rain Research. 30pp.  1987. 10 (4) Hurricanes, Drought, and Va Agriculture. 30pp.   1987. 11 (4) The Ozone Hole and Nuclear Winter. 30pp.  1987. 11 (2) Virginia Evaporation Regimes. 30pp.  1987. 11 (3) Virginia Snow Phobia. 30pp.  1988. 11 (4) Updated Climatic History. 30pp.   1988. 12 (1) Historical Floods. 30pp.  1988. 12 (2) Acid Precipitation Trajectories. 30pp.  1988 12 (3) Eastern Shore Hurricane History. 30pp.  1989 12 (4) Eastern Shore Northeaster History. 30pp.   1989 13 (1) Testimony on Greenhouse Effect. 30pp.  1989 13 (2) Hurricane Camille. 30pp.  1989 13 (3) Hurricane Hugo. 30pp.   1990 14 (2) Scales of Temperature Variation. 30pp.  1990 14 (3) Climate of Saudi Arabia. 30pp.  1990 14 (4) Sleet and Freezing Rain in Virginia. 30pp.   1991 15 (1) Virginia Growing Season Trends. 30pp.  1991 15 (2) Heat Stress. 30pp.  1991 15 (3) Autumn Color Change. 30pp.  1992 15 (4) 15 Years of the Advisory . 30pp.   1992 16 (1) Northeasters. 30pp.  1992 16 (2) Ligthtning. 30pp.  1992 16 (3) Hurricane Andrew. 30pp.  1993 16 (4) Annual Temperature Regimes. 30pp.   1993 17 (1) Blizzard of 1993. 30pp.  1993 17 (2) Tree Mortality. 30pp.  1993 17 (3) Cyclones and Climate Change. 30pp.  1993 17 (4) Regional Visibility. 30pp.   1994 18 (1) Rainfall Recurrence Intervals. 30pp.  1994 18 (2) United Nations Climate Treaties. 30pp.  1994 18 (3) Anticyclonic History. 30pp.   1995 19 (1) Improving Ice Storm Forecasts. 30pp.  1995 19 (2) Hot Weather Mortality. 30pp.  1995 19 (3) Internet Weather. 30pp.  1996 19 (4) Forecast Model on Internet. 30pp.   1996 20 (1) Winter of 1996. 30pp.  1996 20 (2) Annual Rainfall Climatology. 30pp.  1996 20 (3) Annual Snowfall Climatology. 30pp.  1997 20 (4) Extreme Temperatures in Virginia. 30pp.   1997 21 (1) Extratropical Cyclones. 30pp.  1997 21 (2) Regional Rainfall Extremes. 30pp.  1997 21 (3) Lack of El Nino influence in Virginia. 30pp.  1998 21 (4)   1998 22 (1)  1998 22 (2)  1998 22 (3)  1999 22 (4) Snowfall and Winter History. 30pp.   1999 23 (1) Indications of Climate Change. 30pp.  1999 23 (2) 1999 Drought in Perspective 1999 Virginia Climate Advisory Online, beginning December, 1999.  2000 Online:   Weather vs. Infrastructural Droughts  Virginia Climate: 1999 in Perspective  Book Review: The Global Stupidstorm   The Current Wisdom (Recent research in climate science)  Cherry Blossoms in DC   Growing Climate Concern  Just the Facts Please (Spring weather history)  A Closer Look at Visibility  A Careful Look at the New National Assessment   Not-so-hot   Wet, Cool Weather Doesn't Bug Asian Tiger Mosquito  Record Cold Comparison   October Sets All-Time Record Low for Precipitation   Cold Turkey (Cold Thanksgiving History)  Luke-Cold Leftover Turkey (2000 in Perspective)  Dreaming of a White Christmas?   Inaugural Weather   2001 Online  Too Cool for Words (Historical Perspective on Winter Cold)  Energy Usage vs. Cold Winters  Drought Task Force Makes Rain  Doppler Radar and Local Moisture Monitoring  National Academy Report on Global Warming  The Current Wisdom  Urbanization vs. True Warming in Virginia Records  Long Range Forecast Models  Precipitation and Water Shortages in Perspective    2002 Online  (Virginia Drought Emergency in 2002 shifted Advisories to Drought Updates)  1932: The Year Without a Winter  Drought Report from the State Climatology Office: 3/12, 4/10, 5/1  Summer of 1930: Harbinger of 2002?  Drought Report from the State Climatology Office  6/3, 7/2, 8/16, 8/19, 9/23, 10/22, 11/21.  2003 Online  Snowfall Records  New Plant Hardiness Zones  Twenty Days and Twenty Nights -- excessive rain days  In a Rainy Daze?  Isabel and Virginia's Vegetation Problem  Record Annual Virginia Rainfall  VIDEO CLIMATE ADVISORY   In January, 2003, the State Climatology Office switched largely to video Advisories, broadcast statewide on Public Television, Local Access, and Commerical broadcast (the last as PSA's). Spots vary between 1.5 and 2.5 minutes. Advisories are produced by the Virginia Farm Bureau.  2003:  Sleet and Freezing Rain in the Mid Atlantic (Jan) El Nino/La Nina (Feb) Transitional Season Weather (Mar) Tornadoes in Virginia (Apr) Moisture and Temperature (May) Hurricane Season Forecasts (Jun) Dew Point Temperatures (Jul) Wet Start to 2003 (Aug) History of Excessive Virginia Precipitation (Sep) Jet Stream and Precipitation (Oct) Isabel Damage (Nov) White Christmas Probability (Dec)  2004: The Farmer's Almanac (Jan) Precipitation Records in 2003 (Feb) Virginia Temperature Histories (Mar) Virginia Crop Yields (Apr) Virginia Precipitation Histories (May) Trends in Extreme Temperatures (Jun) Hurricane Season Outlook (Jul) Home Weather Instrumentation (Aug) Summer Temperature Departures (Sep) Summer Precipitation (Oct) Perceived Winter Cold (Nov) Record-Breaking Hurricane Season (Dec)  2005: Heating Degree Days (Jan) Snowfall and North Atlantic Oscillation (Feb) Late Season Snows (Mar) Late Spring Frost (Apr) Spring Moisture Status (May)  THE SOUTHEASTERN CLIMATE REVIEW  The Southeastern Climate Review is a technical and public service publication of the Southeast Regional Climate Center. Circulation is approximately 4,500.   1989 1 (1) Background on Climatic Change. 30pp. 1989 1 (2) Hurricane Camille. 30pp. 1989 1 (3) Hurricane Hugo. 30pp. 1989 1 (4) Severe Cold Outbreaks. 30pp.  1990 2 (1) Drought Preparedness. 30pp. 1990 2 (2) 1990 Atlantic Hurricane Recap. 30pp. 1990 2 (3) El Nino and Florida Wildfires. 30pp. 1991 2 (4) Southeastern Growing Seasons. 30pp.  1992 3 (1) Heavy Rainfall Events. 30pp. 1992 3 (2) Climate Change and Fishery Harvest. 30pp.  WORLD CLIMATE REVIEW  A quarterly national publication with a circulation of 15,000 reviewing current science and policy trends relating to Global Climatic Change. Publication began in Fall, 1992, and terminated in Spring, 1995. Each issue averaged 26 pages.  GOVERNMENT ADVISORY SERVICE   Governor's Inquiry--l980 drought  Governor's Inquiry--l981 drought  Virginia Farm Bureau--l983 drought  Virginia Department of Agriculture and Consumer  Services--Avian Influenza, l983-4  Virginia Air Pollution Control Board--Acid Precipitation, l984-1987  Governor's Task Force the Disposal of High-Level Nuclear Waste, l986.  Governor's Task Force on Drought, l986-present  Virginia Office of Economic Development, l986-present  Virginia Film Office, l986-present  Virginia Division of Forestry, l982-1987  Virginia Water Resources Research Center, 1986 (I had to truncate it there. The full CV is about twice that length.)Whew!At this point you might be wondering: if Olsen doesn’t consider Dr Michaels “an expert on climate change,” how high are his standards?What exactly does a guy have to do to get Mr Olsen’s respect?Prepare yourself to be blown away by Roger Fjellstad Olsen’s qualifications, according to Roger Fjellstad Olsen:A&R and Co-owner at Apollon Records AS (2014–present)Studied Climate Science & Music (piano , Vocal ,Guitar) at Most Viewed WriterLives in Bergen, Norway 1969–present1.3M content viewsActive in 7 SpacesKnows NorwegianSo, it seems Mr Olsen is a record-store owner who once studied climate change (and music!) somewhere.And he wants you to think Dr Michaels “is not a climate change expert.”Who to believe, who to believe?