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There is no simple clear cut answer to this is going to be a long one. Our problems long began before CPEC and CPEC has little to do with what’s fundamentally wrong with the Pakistani economy.First, the state of the economy:When asked about worsening fiscal position where the deficit escalated to 8.9 percent of GDP for last fiscal year, the government said that out of total collected tax revenue of Rs3.8 trillion, debt servicing consumed Rs2.1 trillion and then after providing share to provinces, the government had to borrow to meet defence, development and running of the government expenditure.A comparison of macro-indicators at end fiscal year 2018 with FY 2019 suggests that there has been a fast track deterioration of the economic situation during the last one year of the PTI rule.The following are the key indicators showing how things have gone wrong with the Pakistan’s economy.- GDP growth was recorded at 5.8 percent in 2018. As a result of slowdown in economy, growth rate for 2019 is expected to be 3 percent or even less.- Fiscal deficit has increased to Rs3.4 trillion at the end of June 2019 compared to Rs2.2 trillion when PML-N government left in June 2018. Amount wise this is the largest ever deficit in our history. In terms of percentage, fiscal deficit has been recorded at 8.9 percent compared to 6.6 percent on June end 2018. As percentage of GDP, 8.9 percent is the highest in last 30 years and 8.9 percent also has to be seen against PTI’s own set target of 5.1 percent in September last year. Missing the target by miles reflect complete lack of understanding on the part of PTI’s economic team. The high fiscal deficit has a direct consequence on the amount of borrowing as the following debt numbers will reflect.- Total debt and liabilities on the end of June 2018 was Rs30 trillion, which has now gone up to Rs40 trillion. This is the largest ever increase in debt and liabilities in one year. Pakistan’s total debt and liabilities in first 71 years was Rs30 trillion but under PTI government, one third more has been accumulated. This is unprecedented and reflects poor management of expenditure and revenue. If the trend continues like this, it is feared, the whole economic structure would collapse as our economy will not be able to sustain this.- Tax revenue was at a record level at more than Rs3,800 billion in 2018. First time in Pakistan history, tax revenue didn’t register any increase during 2019. During PML-N Government’s five years, the tax revenue increased 20 percent per annum in 4 out of 5 years. This was in spite of extremely low inflation and without significant devaluation - the two factors that automatically help increase tax revenues. It is said that the current revenue target of Rs5,550 billion seems very difficult to be achieved. It’s about 44 percent higher than the last year’s actual collection.- Inflation was at a record low at 3.9 percent in 2018. Last inflation figure reported by the present government is 10.3 percent.- SBP policy (interest) rate was 6.50 percent in mid-2018. It has been to 13.25 percent by the PTI government.- Stock Market was 42,847 at end PML-N government. It’s now hovering around 30,000 after touching 28,000.- Foreign exchange reserves were $15,913 million (SBP reserves $9,510 million) at end of PML-N government. Now it’s $15,630 (SBP reserves $8,271 million). This is in spite of around $12 billion obtained from friendly countries and IMF in last one year.- The only positive thing happened during the last one year is that the current account deficit which improved during PTI government. It was $19,897 million (6.3 percent of GDP) during 2018 fiscal year. It’s now $13,508 million (4.8 percent of GDP) in 2019. It’s ideal to reduce current account deficit by increasing exports. That has the best impact on the economy. The government, however, did it without increasing exports but due to reduction in imports. It is said that the policy to impact imports has considerably slowed down the economy.- Compared to GDP of $313 billion in 2018, our GDP has come down to $280 billion - a reduction of $33 billion only to achieve reduction of $4 billion in imports.- As a result of GDP decline, per capita GDP has gone down by more than 8 percent.- Large scale manufacturing has had negative growth during last one year.- Agriculture growth was less than 1 percent.- Massive currency devaluation took place with rupee going from 116 by end of PML-N government to around 160. This is the largest devaluation in last several decades with significant downside impact on our economy.- FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) has plummeted and is down by more than 50 percent.- As a result of significant reduction in growth and high inflation, the common Pakistani has been the worst affected. In last one year, more than 45 lac people have gone below the poverty line. In addition more than 15 lac people have lost their jobs.According to official projections, the GDP growth is expected to be around 2.4 percent while inflation will be in the range of 13 percent to 15 percent. The discount rate is expected to go further up in the range of 15 percent-16 percent.As a result, during the present fiscal year about five million people will go below the poverty line. This is on top of 4.5 million people who suffered this misery past one year. With declining growth rate, another 1.5 million or more Pakistanis will become unemployed.In the first two years of PTI rule, it is feared that about three million Pakistanis will become unemployed as against the party’s commitment of providing 10 million jobs over five years.Economic situation going from bad to worseThe Executive Summary is as follows:The debt crises of Pakistan began long before CPEC was even conceptualized. Pakistan currently is in the intial stages of a debt trap but to say it’s because of CPEC is a bad application of the correlation equaling causation fallacy.Pakistan’’s debt trap is due to its incredible inefficient and badly thought out government spending which is directed more towards plugging in leakages in it’s projects and public sector enterprises rather than meaningful investments for growth that lead to a high ROI in the future. Along with a non existent tax base that is actually shrinking even further.Lets go over the timeline first:Source: Pakistan’s Public debtSource: Pakistan’s Public debtThe following are the key insights to take away from this:CPEC was formally announced in April 2015. But Pakistan’s debt problem began in the 2007–2009 period, long before CPEC was announced.The primary cause of Pakistan’s debt is domestic debt rather than external debt. This is telling for a few reasons: External debt is normally tied to development projects. So a high external debt means that the country is borrowing loans from abroad to fund domestic development projects that spur growth and have good ROIs in the future that our coming generations can take advantage of.However, our external debt profile has not changed much. It’s our domestic debt that has sky rocketed. Domestic debt is tied closely to the government meeting it’s fiscal deficits or current expenditures. That is, the government is borrowing money from local banks or printing its own money just to meet it’s day to day expenditure.It’s ok for governments to take loans from abroad to fund major development projects and then pass on the debt for those projects to future generations as they will reap the harvest and return for those projects and it will lead to a betterment in their lives.If I borrow money today to buy a car for my son, I can make the payments for it as long as i live and then pass on the remaining to my son since he can take advantage of the car as well.But if i borrow money to pay for my booze and cigarettes and then pass on the debt i incurred for those to my son, I have curtailed his spending power in the future without passing on any meaningful betterment in his life in the future.That’s unfortunately what the Pakistan government has been doing: Borrowing from local banks to finance its day to day expenditures.Actually, we are currently borrowing to fund our entire defense, development and government administrative expenditures after paying back our debt obligations and our shares to the provinces.This has crowded out the private sector from bank capital for loans in order to grow their business as the banks would prefer to lend to the government as a safer bet. So the private sector growth has slowed leading to a lower tax revenue from businesses.Imran Khan has always been quite vocal about how Pakistan’s main problem is corruption, people not paying taxes and wealth stashed abroad. $200 billion stashed abroad in Swiss banks, which when bought back could be used to pay off our debt. Apparently the figure has been revised down to $12.5 billion and even that has not been bough back.As far as taxes go, the government keeps coming up with stats like “If every Pakistani paid 1000 rupees we could do blah blah blah”. Has Mr. Khan ever toured the rural countries from his Bani Gala residence? Nearly half of our population is below the age of 18 and earning below $2 a day. Where exactly are they supposed to scrounge up the money.Corruption then gets dragged in. I can honestly say anti-corruption drives in Pakistan and “Accountability” is used more as a political tool to keep civilian elected politicians in line more than anything. The Judiciary and Military and Civil service seem surprisingly immune from them.Also, Pakistan ranks on the same level of corruption as Vietnam which is growing at a rate of 6.8% and destined for a new Asian tiger ranking.The problem in Pakistan is legalized corruption: Where the law permits expenditures that the state has no business indulging in.An officers mess hall spending lakhs of rupees to upgrade the air conditioning of their living room and another few lakhs to maintain a pretty lawn outisde, it’s not considered corruption in Pakistan. But it is a waste.When the Director of some third rate government insitution gets a free fuel, a driver, a car, a house and perks and privileges in his formalized salary and work benefits, it’s not corruption. But it is a waste.We’ve restricted our scope to corruption because the idea of Zardari getting a 10% cut on a submarine deal or Sheikh Rashid accepting money bribes under the table inflames our passions. But most of the corruption in Pakistan doesn’t happen like that. Most of the corruption in Pakistan wouldn’t even be considered corruption.Its in the forms of perks, benefits, cars, drivers, petrol subsidies, free housing and countless other benefits distributed among elites and their networks of patronage which encompass millions of supporters for different political factions and entities.When the government distributes massive amounts of funds for discretionary spending by parliamentarians in their districts and said funds are spent on schools with no teachers, roads with no bidding and other pointless activities designed more to distribute resources among followers than actual growth, i have to ask if a poor country like ours can afford this.Pakistan’s problem isn’t a low tax base or corruption. It’s systemic waste. Legalized waste. Of precious tax payer money.On SOEs that run into billions of rupees in losses. On development projects that are offer no clear return on investments. Ghost schools. Inflated and bloated state organizations and their salaries. And countless other forms of legalized waste.Pakistan’s government institutions are often classified as “rent seeking” for a reason: they are still mired in the colonial era structures left behind by the British. The state was designed by the British colonialists to extract resources for the industrialization of England, to purchase the loyalty of local clan chiefs and tribal leaders who were loyal to the crown and to enable the aristocratic lifestyles of the ruling elite.We have barely gone beyond that way of thinking and the state currently continues to perpetuate it’s rent seeking strategy with long term economic plans being developed but continuously disrupted by political turmoil.And the political turmoil itself also bears discussion: The establishment would always prefer a weak parliament where no party has a strong majority so that civilian officials are unable to surmount a challenge to the unelected establishment.Unfortunately, weak civilian governments make weak economic policies since they are unable to gather the political will needed for tough economic measures. Especially when establishment agents are lurking around the corner to sponsor protests that cut civil leaders down to size.The military dictatorships often don’t fare much better either. While benefiting from massive amounts of US military and civil aid, their economic policies are not superior to the civilians despite protestations to the contrary.Actually, if you look at it from the data centric viewpoint, the PPP was actually the government from the 2000 to present day period that performed best in terms of boosting exports, and that too in a tough global environment during the 2008–2009 recession era.Which political party has been the best for Pakistan's economy? Trade stats reveal allOne of the core problems causing the debt crises in Pakistan is the current account deficit where imports have outstripped exports resulting in pressure on Pakistan’s dollar reserves when servicing foreign payments and debt obligations. Growing exports are a vital way to resolve this issue and to manage debt levels. Note that Pakistan’s current account deficit began during the Musharraf era and got carried on from there.Even if the trade deficit is growing, this is not necessarily a bad thing if the deficit is because of development related activities where machinery and infrastructure is being imported instead of luxury items like bulletproof BMWs (which the government imported massive quantities of). Countries like Turkey also have significant trade deficits but their trade deficits are due to productive imports that boost local economic growth.Also, the way that Pakistan has tried to reduce the current account defecit in terms of trade has been through constant currency devaluations in order to make exports more competitive. This policy has been consistently failing for a decade. Pakistan’s exports are noncompetitive because we have some of the highest electricity rates for our textile factories and other businesses. And we have failed to invest enough in small technology firms that could have made a niche out for themselves as businesses that dont require much upfront capital investment but offer immense revenues in dollar denominated currencies.Pakistan’s largest resource pool right now is its young population and if we properly trained and educated even a fraction of them and helped them set up local companies or exported them as talented man power, we could boost our exports enormously. Right now our primary foreign exchange is coming in the form of remittances.But instead we keep devaluing the currency and manage to increase maybe $500 million to $1 billion increase in exports and 3–4 billion USD decrease in imports?While inflating our debt obligations by almost 40–50%, shaving $30–35 billion USD off of our economy, choking imports and reducing economic activity to a low 2–3%?For $4 billion in account deficit reduction?In any case, growing exports won’t do much when they are matched with increasing borrowing from local banks due to high government expenditures that are mostly to cover for massive losses from 5 key elements:The five real fault-lines in the rupee-based economy are:the Rs1.7 trillion circular debtRs1.6 trillion leakages in Public Sector Enterprises (PSEs)trillion-rupee leakages in public procurement projects$2 billion leakage in the gas sectorThe Rs734 billion debt in the government’s commodity operations.These are the five sectors that need wholesale reforms. And, these are the five serious fault-lines where our reform basket is absolutely empty (resulting in the skyrocketing of our debt to Rs40 trillion).Source: ContinuityThere is no point in talking about increasing the tax base when these massive leakages in government revenue exist. It’s akin to pouring water in a jug with a hole at the bottom.Imran Khan has looked at the yawning deficits and declared austerity on the solution to our problems.Government expenditures are being slashed, the monetary policy tightened and more taxes being imposed.Thing about the tax revenue increase programs this past decade is is that they always have the same story: Government announces new tax, agriculture and retail push back, the government withdraws the tax plan and tries to squeeze out more taxes from the current, already squeezed small tax base. This leads to current tax payers start to find ways to avoid taxes and leads to tax base actually shrinking.Which is whats happening right now.Also, the imposition of taxes on retail sector has been done in the worst way possible: Indirect taxation, which is always just passed on to the end user and leads to sky rocketing inflation while eating into the already tiny margins of retailers like street vendors.Tell me: What exactly is the point of maintaining humongous tax drains like the Federal Bureau of revenue when they are incapable of collecting taxes directly from tax payers?And in some places, we area actually spending Rs 1000 to collect Rs. 100 in tax…The failure to develop an adequate tax base combined with incredibly wasteful government expenditures is at the heart of our current economic crises, not CPEC.The tendency to blame China for Pakistan’s debt problems is an angle pushed far more from Washington, New Delhi and Tokyo than anywhere else simply because that narrative suits their strategic interests.And while the irony of the Indian government excusing Pakistan’s poor economic management causing debt to blame China instead is not lost on me, it’s simply not true.As the Pakistani public is well aware of by now, crisis interventions by outside donors are no more than a stopgap solution to what has become a chronic problem: Pakistan, for all intents and purposes, does not have a tax base. Only about 1 percent of the population pays income tax. According to an IMF working paper authored by Serhan Cevik in 2016, Pakistan had a “tax revenue gap” equivalent to 10 percent of national GDP (or roughly $28 billion in 2016) and could potentially double its tax revenue-to-GDP ratio.While not even high-income countries manage to collect the full total of their potential tax revenues, the paper pointed out that Pakistan’s collection rate falls “significantly below” even countries of comparable circumstances. Not much has changed in the last two years. Pakistan’s Federal Board of Revenue confessed this past June that it would miss its original revenue collection target for the 2017-2018 fiscal year by 162 billion rupees ($1.32 billion).Until it builds an adequate tax base, Pakistan’s fiscal stability will continue to rely on outside donors. In other words: there won’t be any fiscal stability.Wanted: A Solid Tax Base in PakistanIn any case, the only thing Imran Khan has done is to impost MORE taxes on the already burdened tax base which is small enough as it is. And the reaction to that has been current tax payers taking their money abroad or finding ways to hide it because even they have reached their breaking point.Meanwhile vast swathes of the underground economy remain untaxed. Indirect taxation continues to be favored over direct taxation. Small businesses are seeing their already small margins shrink.And the end result of this sad story is that the FBR has recorded its lowest recent revenue collection in the near past. And our tax base, small as it is, is actually declining now.The Catastrophe of the IMFI could not have said anything better than what has been said by Mr. Abdul Sattar in his incredible take down of the disaster that has been the IMF and it’s economic policies. The IMF is a rapacious institution run to serve imperialist resource extraction projects across the globe and to think the IMF and it’s packages are solution to our problems is a folly beyond imagining. And the dark past of the IMF’s “austerity” mantra has a long track record of wrecking developing world economies.Long but worthy read:The US's voting share in in the IMF is 17.16 percent and in the World Bank 16.41 percent. Japan holds the next highest voting shares with 6.27 percent and 7.87 percent respectively. Washington also has the unique privilege of appointing the president of the World Bank and is the only country entitled to a permanent place among the Bank’s executive directors.So, it is no surprise that these institutions were employed as a tool to serve the interests of the global hegemon, punishing states that dared to challenge the rapaciousness of Western capitalism. For instance Salvador Allende, the first elected socialist leader of Chile, infuriated the US and its Western allies by asserting that his country should take care of its own natural resources and run the economy. This did not go down well with the arrogant modern imperial powers that are then said to have forced the World Bank to stop giving loans to the elected government in 1972, triggering an economic chaos that culminated in a military coup. Soon after the coup, the doors were opened for military dictator General Pinochet, whose brutal regime not only assassinated Allende but also decimated up to 130,000 Chileans in a 17-year despotic rule. The World Bank showered $350.5 million between on Chile 1973 and 1976, almost 13 times the $27.7 million it gave during the three-year Allende presidency.Integration of the developing countries' economies was also one of the main purposes of these institutions. To achieve this, they came up with the idea of the Structural Adjustment Programme that sought to pressure the Third World countries into privatizing industries and the service sector, cutting in government spending, liberalizing capital markets (which leads to unstable trading in currencies), promoting market-based pricing (which tends to raise the cost of basic goods) and raising interest rates.The World Bank instituted its SAPs in 1980 and the IMF imposed them in 1986. According to a research paper by Asad Sami, during 1980-93, 70 developing countries were subjected to 566 stabilization and structural adjustment programmes – with disastrous consequences. The author claims that between 1984 and 1990, Third World countries under SAPs transferred $178 billion to Western commercial banks. The enormous capital drain prompted Morris Miller, a Canadian former World Bank director, to remark, “Not since the Conquistadors plundered Latin America has the world experienced such a flow in the direction we see today." Such policies led to the stagnation of growth in developing countries besides doubling their debt burden to over $1.5 trillion by the end of the 1980s, doubling again to $3 trillion by the end of the 1990s.The ruling elite of the Western capitalist world ruthlessly exploited the developing countries, especially those of Latin America and Africa. To understand how such policies ruined the lives of millions across the world, one needs to see what happened in Peru, Mexico and other parts of the globe. In 1990, an IMF-sponsored stabilization package produced catastrophic consequences in Peru. Within no time fuel prices increased 31 times – by 2,968 percent – and that of bread 12 times – by 1,150 percent. The prices of most basic food staples increased by six or seven times – 446 percent in a single month – yet wages had already been compressed by 80 percent in the period prior to the adoption of these measures in August 1990. IMF SAPs were first imposed on Mexico in 1982 and by 1992 infant deaths due to malnutrition tripled, the minimum wage fell by 60 percent and the percentage of the population living in poverty rose from less than half to more than two-thirds.Such policies also hit Africa. The situation of the continent was not rosy prior to the arrival of the international monetary institutions in 1980 but even then during 1960-1980, Sub Saharan Africa’s GDP per capita grew by 36 percent. Between the 1980s and 2000s, it actually fell by 15 percent. Dictation by the international monetary institutions led to the rise of rampant poverty and by 2015, 413 million people were living on less than $1.90 a day. Despite following these anti-people policies, the average life expectancy for Sub Saharan Africa is only 47 years (the lowest in the world), a drop of 15 years since 1980. Forty percent of the population suffers from malnutrition that causes low birth weight among infants and stunts growth in children.Advocates of a free market economy could brag about the increasing trade that the mineral rich continent witnessed from 1989 to 1999. It is estimated that Sub Saharan Africa’s trade as a percentage of GDP (a key indicator of globalization) increased from 78.1 percent to 95.6 percent; in dollar terms, trade grew from $175 billion in 1990 to $187 billion in 1999; for the same period, foreign direct investment jumped from $923 million to $7.9 billion in 1999.But contrary to the tall claims of international monetary institutions, export expansion and rising foreign investment in Africa neither increased growth nor reduced poverty or debt. In reality, most African exports are raw materials, and non-oil commodity prices dropped by 35 percent on average from 1997 and 2004. Tax holidays and profit repatriation might have helped foreign companies to accumulate immense wealth but made very little difference to the lives of millions of Africans.Per capita income, one of the tools to measures the development of a country, also fell between 1980 – when SAPs were imposed on 36 of Sub-Saharan Africa’s 47 countries – and 2004. It fell for most Sub Saharan countries by 25 percent during the 1980s and for 18 countries these incomes were lower in 1999 than in 1975. In 1960, Sub-Saharan Africa’s per capita income was about one-ninth of that in high-income OECD countries; by 1998, it had deteriorated dramatically to about 1/18.Africa’s external debt has increased by more than 500 percent since 1980, to $417 billion in 2017. SAPs have transferred more than $229 billion in debt payments from Sub-Saharan Africa to the West since 1980. Africa spends four times more on debt interest payments than on healthcare. This combined with cutbacks in social expenditure caused healthcare spending in the 42 poorest African countries to fall by 50 percent during the 1980s. More than 200 million Africans have no access to health services as hundreds of clinics, hospitals and medical facilities have been closed.The catastrophic impacts of the policies imposed by international monetary institutions were not confined to Africa and Latin America, as discussed in the first part of this article; they also played havoc with the lives of millions in Asia and other parts of the world as well. In Asia, the IMF and the World Bank first encouraged financial liberalization that partly led to the financial crisis in South East Asia during the decade of the 1990s, and they then prescribed a disastrous recipe to address this crisis.Several experts believe that the crisis was caused in large part by South Korea, Thailand, the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia's heavy reliance on short-term foreign loans and openness to hot money. When it became apparent in 1997 that private enterprises would not be able to meet their payment obligations, international currency markets panicked and Asian currencies plummeted. What they forget to mention is the ideology of international monetary institutions that encourage the reliance of countries on short-term foreign loans and openness to hot money which help speculators fulfill their gargantuan appetite for profit and money.After pushing these countries towards a crisis, the IMF treated the Asian meltdown like other emergency situations, giving assistance only in exchange for structural adjustment policies, which was totally unnecessary because these states were not facing a budgetary deficit issue. Nonetheless, the fund instructed governments to cut spending, which deepened the economic slowdown. In South Korea, for example, a country whose income approached European levels, unemployment skyrocketed from approximately 3 percent to 10 percent. 'IMF suicides' became common among workers who had lost their jobs and dignity.In Indonesia, the worst-hit country, poverty rates rose from an official level of 11 percent before the crisis to 40-60 percent, and GDP declined by 15 percent in one year. Malaysia stood out as a country that refused IMF assistance and advice. Instead of further opening its economy, Malaysia imposed capital controls, in an effort to eliminate speculative trading in its currency. While the IMF mocked this approach when adopted, the Fund later admitted that it succeeded.The IMF recipe proved to be very disastrous for the common Indonesian who greatly suffered because of the policies imposed by the global financial body. Prior to the 1997-98 financial crisis, Indonesia had a relatively comfortable debt situation. The government borrowed primarily from the World Bank, Asian Development Bank, and a group of bilateral donors grouped in the Consultative Group on Indonesia (CGI), for funding its development budget. Jakarta approached IMF in 1997 for a $43 billion bailout and within a few years, the bailout turned out to be a great curse for the masses, adding to their miseries and making their lives difficult. In January 2003, the government of the then president Megawati Soekarnoputri raised the prices on fuel (22 percent), telephone (15 percent) and electricity (6 percent). This was happening in a country where inflation was 10 percent in 2002 and more than half of the country's 220 million population lived on less than $2 a day and burdened with more than 40 million unemployed souls.To tide over the crisis, it was suggested that Indonesia should take specific steps to liberalise trade and investment which included: reducing tariffs on all imported food products to five percent and cutting non-agricultural tariffs to 10 percent by 2003; opening banks to foreign ownership by June 1998; and lifting restrictions on foreign banks by February 1998. Despite taking these drastic measures, the country's financial woes did not decrease. The official debt burden increased from 27 percent of GDP prior to the crisis to more than 100 percent by the end of 1999, before declining gradually. In fact Indonesia, which was ranked as middle-income and middle-indebted before the crisis (at the same level as its neighbours, Thailand and the Philippines), came to be ranked as belonging to the SILIC (severely indebted low income countries) category.Such reckless policies also contributed to the immiserating of the people in the Philippines where the government kept domestic wages low at the behest of the international financial bodies. This badly affected the marginalized sectors of society, forcing 54 percent of the population to live in absolute poverty while the government debt service was eating up 50 percent of the national budget.This was the brief history of the disastrous impacts caused by the policies of the global financial institutions. It is difficult to imagine why we still insist on going to such institutions. The policies of international monetary institutions clearly indicate that they seek to benefit the Global North. Their agenda is to facilitate the plundering of third-world countries by the advanced capitalist states. Their mission is not opaque. Their purpose is not mysterious. They are very vocal in making it clear that the Structural Adjustment Programmes are meant to promote the free market. They want developing countries, including Pakistan, to reduce import restrictions, work for the advancement of exports, carry out the privatization of public industries, control wages and leave the social sector at the mercy of market forces.Which of these points could help the economy? Let us begin with privatization. The mantra of selling state concerns was used to convince people that it would help the country repay loans. We started the process of privatization in the 1980s, which gathered pace after the restoration of democracy in 1988. According to the finance ministry our total debt and external liabilities was $20.90 billion in 1990, rising to $38.86 billion in 2007 and $99.1 billion now. We have sold out more than 160 state-run entities since the 1980s, rendering hundreds and thousands of people jobless. Instead of seeing the country free from debt, what we see today is nothing but a phenomenal surge in our external debt and liabilities which is likely to haunt our coming generations for decades or maybe centuries.Did these much-vaunted reforms at the behest of international monetary institutions bring any positive change in the lives of millions of Pakistanis? The answer is not difficult to imagine. While the World Bank claims poverty has been reduced, asserting it fell to 29.5 percent in 2014 from 64.3 percent in 2002, Pakistan’s first ever official report on multidimensional poverty, launched by the PML-N government in 2016, says nearly 39 percent of Pakistanis live in multidimensional poverty. The other social development indicators that were meant to be visible after the economic reforms seem to be nowhere either. The country houses more than 25 million out-of-school children. More than 40 percent of children are stunted. Infant mortality rate was 63.3 deaths per thousand live births in 2018. Eighty percent of diseases are caused by contaminated water which is a rare commodity for the majority of the poor, and Hepatitis has become an epidemic in several parts of the country.Since the arrival of the Tabdeeli Sarkar, inflation has skyrocketed. The prices of petrol and gas have witnessed a phenomenal surge. The champions of employment creation are planning to render tens of thousands workers jobless by privatizing state-run concerns. Given all this, it is more likely that the prescription of the IMF will further add to the miseries. Therefore, it is important that we think of the alternatives. Following the IMF's dictation will do no good. If the advisers of Zardari, Nawaz and Imran are unanimous in seeking help from global financial bodies then the people must realise that they just want to draw to hefty salaries from the public exchequer but want workers' wages to be stagnated. They want to see austerity in the lives of millions of people but would love to stay in five-star hotels and make expensive foreign trips from the taxes of common people. It is time we came up with our own alternative.Source #1 :Is the IMF the cure?Source #2: Is the IMF the cure?We have been under IMF led programs for decades. They said privatize industries, we privatized nearly 160 industries since the 1980s and yet our debt levels have gone up rather than down. We have devalued a currency to the point that it’s 160 rupees to a dollar now, yet our exports are meager while our debt obligations and economic size has shrunk.We shouldn’t blame the IMF: We should blame ourselves. The IMF was never set up to help us. Their macro stabilization programs have had mixed successes and are a generalized template solution that doesn’t take into account region or country specific condition. They apply one size fits all solutions to countries as diverse as Laos, El Salvador. Egypt and Pakistan.The IMF is designed to serve the interests of the people who hold voting shares in it’s board. The IMF conditions and strings that are applied to it’s loan programs are designed to kick down the doors of protections for local, developing economies so they can be rapaciously exploited by American companies and firms. Wages are slashed, social safety nets discarded, taxes on businesses and industries withdrawn, mineral rights given away at throw away prices. The IMF is designed to enable the neo-colonial exploitation of the Global south and has played it’s part in the wealth transfer from the south to the Developed North long after those countries stopped being colonies on paper.It’s time we parted ways with this parasitic institution and looked for home grown solutions and alternative financing institutions like the AIIB.GrowthThe Austerity driven model of economic stabilization proposed by the IMF and other economic institutions had disastrous results, not just in the above mentioned states but also Greece during the recent economic crises.The incredible disaster of the Greek austerity debacle is something that will go down in history books. There are many fingers to point in this drama: The IMF (to a lesser extent this time) and the Greek government with their own bad spending and number fudging. The EU banks and the political chiefs who steered it’s fate perhaps gave the single greatest blow to the EU project when they pushed for austerity to “punish” Greece for some perceived sin.When the recession hit, and a new Socialist government exposed New Democracy’s cooked books, investors fled. The Greek government could not rollover its debt and risked default. Greek banks, which held large amounts of government debt, became precarious. German and French banks also had invested so heavily in Greece that their stability was in jeopardy. The Greek government and banks were so closely intertwinedthat a default by one could bring down the other.The sensible solution at this point would have been to compel foreign banks to write off large parts of their Greek investments. The banks knew the risks when they made their loans and presumably priced that into the interest they charged. The European Central Bank stoutly resisted this, fearing for the stability of these imprudent banks.Instead, the EU and other international financial institutions offered what has widely been described as a “bail-out.” This was not, for the most part, money to support human services or other forms of consumption. Instead, this was money for Greece to send right back to its external creditors. In essence, the international institutions were bailing out their own irresponsible banks but laundering the money through the Greek government.As a price for this “bail-out,” the EU and its partners demanded crippling austerity: tax increases, widespread lay-offs of public employees, and massive cuts in pensions and other social supports. Laying off so many workers and pauperizing pensioners sharply reduced demand, which triggered further lay-offs and wage cuts in the private sector. As the depression deepened, unemployment topped 25 percent. When austerity devastated the Socialists’ working-class constituency, the party was effectively destroyed.As powerful as the EU is, however, it was unable to rewrite the basic rules of economics. Each round of austerity further depressed the economy, reducing revenues and increasing Greece’s deficit. Even from the creditors’ perspective, austerity was self-defeating.Rather than recognizing the error of their ways, the international organizations doubled down on austerity, demanding still deeper cuts to government employment and basic public services. The hypocrisy was rich: Greece’s deficit was growing precisely because it was complying with the EU's austerity plan, whose implementation predictably misfired.With their economy in free-fall and the EU showing no inclination to reduce the pressure, Greek voters turned to anti-austerity parties. On the right, this elevated the neo-fascist, swastika-flashing Golden Dawn, whose leaders faced charges for killing political opponents. The majority, however, went to Syriza, a leftist group that pledged to stare down the EUand end austerity.The EU, however, stonewalled, forcing Syriza to choose between taking Greece out of the EU and implementing further rounds of crushing austerity. Syriza blinked in this stare-down, fracturing its membership and earning the ire of its voters. Since then, it has been governing in fragilecoalitions with small conservative parties, largely abandoning the aspirational program it ran on.Eventually, the International Monetary Fund pressured the EU to relent on austerity. But by then, the Greek economy had shrunk by more than a quarter, numerous Greek families had horror stories of losing their homes, being unable to support themselves, or lacking medical care for treatable conditions, and Syriza had been thoroughly discredited with Greek voters.Will we learn from the Greece austerity debacle?Contrast the EU’s austerity push with the Keynesian Stimulus driven economic recovery championed by President Obama in the US during the 2008 recession which urged that in the face of slowing Economic Growth the government must inject a stimulus into the economy to stir up consumption and spending and avoid a short recession turning into a long one.Another group, the Keynesians, subscribed to the policies advocated by their namesake in the aftermath of the Great Depression, when John Maynard Keynes argued that, by taking care of unemployment, the economy would look after itself: the need was to stimulate consumption and demand to prevent a negative spiral of declining confidence, lower spending, and more job losses and firm bankruptcies. This is, in effect, the policy pursued by President Obama, with large-scale stimulus packages (although the magnitude has been debated), including substantial investment in the automobile industry. A third group of supply-side economists argued that the problem was over-regulation, or ‘red tape’, and advocated massive deregulation. They believed that abolition of employment rights would enable wages to fall and unwanted labour to be shed, allowing firms to compete better in a global market. However, a new school of thought emerged, labelled ‘austerions’ by the economics Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman.Five years on, the results of the ‘great austerity experiment’ are at last becoming clear (Fig 1). In the USA, where a Keynesian approach was adopted, the economy has recovered and is now on a sustained upward trajectory. The Eurozone is experiencing mixed fortunes. Some countries, such as Germany, are also experiencing sustained growth, but those that adopted stringent austerity policies, such as Ireland, Greece, Spain and Portugal, have yet to recover. Iceland, one of the worst affected countries, held a referendum on austerity; 93% of the population rejected it and, so far, austerity has been delayed and limited. As a result, Iceland has had much better economic performance than the latter group of austerity cases (in part, enabled by its ability to devalue its currency and, in so doing, boost fishing exports). Paradoxically, the credit-rating agencies, which were once in the vanguard of calls for austerity, are now downgrading Italian banks explicitly because of concerns that austerity is choking off growth.The UK did make an initial recovery but there too the imposition of stringent austerity measures by the newly elected coalition government in 2010 arrested it. This evidence has not gone unnoticed and, in a series of elections across Europe in 2012, voters have rejected austerity and elected politicians offering an alternative, most notably in France but also in German regional elections. Yet their reasons for doing so are not simply because these policies have failed to fix the economy. They are also rejecting them because they are seeing the signs of the human cost that they incur, something that many politicians have sought to ignore.Austerity: a failed experiment on the people of EuropeWhen Austerity has been such a debacle across the Globe as a policy measure to stabilize economies, why exactly should the government engage in it yet again at a time when the economy is slowing down and austerity measures will heap unnecessary pain on already hapless masses?The Keynesian stimulus approach has already show tried and true effectiveness in the US and other western hemisphere economic recoveries. CPEC as an investment tool is an excellent way to achieve such a stimulus by spurring economic activity and growth and allowing the government to stabilize it’s finances while it works to cut away the wasteful and nonproductive expenditures and grow its tax base at the same time.CPEC transitions economy away for global warming eraRecently I shared this news clipping about Pakistani and Chinese scientists on the verge of a scientific breakthrough where they could develop a strain of hybrid rice that can withstand drought and high heat conditions:Pakistan, Chinese researchers on the brink of hybrid rice breakthroughI recall that 2 or 3 years ago when the CPEC master plan was revealed and there was a huge concern over a previously unrevealed agricultural aspect of CPEC. Everyone up until then had assumed it was an infrastructure, energy and logistics related project.In all honesty, I consider the agricultural aspect of CPEC to be the most important one because it’s based around three core objectives:Transition Pakistan’s agriculture away from water intensive crops to crops that utilize less water but contribute more to the GDPTransition from current breed of crops to a new strain that are more resistant to the drought and arid conditions we will face in the 21st century of Global WarmingTransition from the British canal based system of watering crops via flood irrigation which is incredibly wasteful to new systems like Drip Water irrigation and crop zoning etc that are more efficient at water usage.Pakistan is lunging into a serious water crisis. The country is rapidly moving from being a water abundant country to a water-scarce country.With its annual water availability falling below 1,000 cubic metres per person, it may in fact have already crossed this threshold. This is partly due to depletion of its fresh water resources because of increasing population, adverse climate variations like drought and inconsistent monsoon patterns, and lack of storage facilities. And it is partially due to the unchecked demand for these many limited available resources.The scope of the crisis can be demonstrated by a few key facts: About 92 percent of Pakistan is classified as semi-arid to arid and the vast majority of Pakistanis are dependent on surface and groundwater sources from a single source – the Indus River basin.More than 90 percent of the country’s water is being used by the agriculture sector where conventional irrigation methods are undertaken.About 90 percent of the country’s agricultural production comes from land irrigated by the Indus Basin Irrigation System, firmly linking national food security to water levels in the Indus River basin. And, Pakistan’s water storage capacity is limited to a maximum 30-day supply, far below the 1,000-day storage capacity recommended for a country with its climatic characteristics.With water availability per person declining year by year, and demand for food production continuously increasing, Pakistan faces not only a water crisis but also serious concerns regarding its future food security. This situation also has clear implications for the government’s efforts to become an upper middle income country by 2025.The relevant authorities should carry out a study to assess the national water demand which should focus on different water users, water balance, traditional and emerging demands, and the impacts of climate change on demand by 2025 and 2050. In order for the government to take informed decisions, sectoral demands have to be estimated for all sectors. This will give an idea to the policymakers about which sectors consume most water.Studies like these will also help realize the contribution each sector makes towards the national economy as per their water usage. For instance, according to a report, four major crops that consume about 80 percent of the country’s water resources (wheat, rice, cotton and sugarcane) generate less than five percent of the national GDP.Furthermore, experts suggest that rain water harvesting must be introduced in local households, in both urban and rural areas. Flood irrigation should be a criminal act that is still being practiced in Pakistan; this has to stop. Improved irrigation methods and crop zoning are the country’s need at the moment. There is a need to reuse water in houses; for example, the water used in our kitchens can be reused in our toilets.Disappearing waterI understand that agriculture is not the most interesting subject and in this day and age we have just assumed the constant availability of food.But climate change is going to complete alter the environmental, economic and social landscape of the Pakistani territories. And it is imperative that we pursue the agricultural related initiatives of CPEC at all costs and as fast as possible.Let me stress that a little more strongly: Even if we take on $100 billion of debt under CPEC, it will be worth it if for no other reason, we can get our agriculture to survive in the Global Warming era.It is disingenuous to talk about finances when we are talking about the very survival of the country. If you think I’m being over dramatic, I would urge you to read up on the catastrophic consequences of what will happen if we continue to keep our water usage and agriculture as is and refuse to adapt. We are seeing a mini version of this dark future in Karachi where water mafia must be paid to get your water tanks filled and access to clean water is shrinking every day.Imagine that on a nationwide level with violent mobs and riots over water shortages, food prices sky rocketing due to crop failures and militarization of water access to secure scarce water resources for the state and it’s elite.The Maldives are currently on the chopping block of Climate Change and people believe that they as a state will be wiped out by rising sea levels. Should we tell the Maldives that it’s not financially feasible to construct infrastructure that will adapt them to the Climate change era?Quorans who are often suspicious of CPEC as a colonization project: India is one of the key partner with Israel on how to adapt biotechnology in the agricultural sector so that water usage is optimized and crops adapt to the hot, arid and water stressed future. And even increase their yields in some cases. So if it’s ok for India to undertake such projects, then why not Pakistan?One more thing: While ~50+% of our economy stems from the services sector, the other half is predominately still agricultural at 23% and Industrial at 18%.Besides ensuring that our agricultural sector survives into the 21st century with the adaption of cutting edge agricultural tech from China, CPEC also allows us to begin to transition our economy away from sectors that are in danger from climate change towards new sectors that will surive the global warming era.An example of that is trade logistics: CPEC’s massive road, rail, port and highway network is planned to be integrated into China’s OBOR project so that we can develop new sources of revenue in the form of logistics related fees from Chinese companies and traders utilizing CPEC infrastructure.This is a good example of an economic sector Pakistan currently doesn’t have but it will definitely need in the future to diversify away from purely Agricultural related exports.Take a look at some of our exports by category data in 2018:source: Pakistan Exports By CategoryOne of the more sensible and realistic calculations for our earnings from CPEC toll fees was given at $2-$2.5 billion USD a year.CPEC toll income — myth and reality | The Express TribuneOur agricultural exports in 2018 are at $15 b USD a year.With 2.5 billion USD in toll fees, we have managed to diversify our export or dollar related earnings by around 16% away from our top earning crops.This is a good start. And we need to continue building on it. Our economy must transition away from purely agriculture related earnings in the Global Heat Wave of the future and move towards sectors that are immune or semi immune to Global Warming.This is how CPEC plans to accomplish this using a mix of financing for the agricultural sector, new plans for fertilizer usage, new watering techniques and sustainable agriculture through more revenue per crop capita:For agriculture, the plan outlines an engagement that runs from one end of the supply chain all the way to the other. From provision of seeds and other inputs, like fertiliser, credit and pesticides, Chinese enterprises will also operate their own farms, processing facilities for fruits and vegetables and grain. Logistics companies will operate a large storage and transportation system for agrarian produce.It identifies opportunities for entry by Chinese enterprises in the myriad dysfunctions that afflict Pakistan’s agriculture sector. For instance, “due to lack of cold-chain logistics and processing facilities, 50% of agricultural products go bad during harvesting and transport”, it notes.Enterprises entering agriculture will be offered extraordinary levels of assistance from the Chinese government. They are encouraged to “[m]ake the most of the free capital and loans” from various ministries of the Chinese government as well as the China Development Bank. The plan also offers to maintain a mechanism that will “help Chinese agricultural enterprises to contact the senior representatives of the Government of Pakistan and China”.The government of China will “actively strive to utilize the national special funds as the discount interest for the loans of agricultural foreign investment”. In the longer term the financial risk will be spread out, through “new types of financing such as consortium loans, joint private equity and joint debt issuance, raise funds via multiple channels and decentralise financing risks”.The plan proposes to harness the work of the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps to bring mechanization as well as scientific technique in livestock breeding, development of hybrid varieties and precision irrigation to Pakistan. It sees its main opportunity as helping the Kashgar Prefecture, a territory within the larger Xinjiang Autonomous Zone, which suffers from a poverty incidence of 50 per cent, and large distances that make it difficult to connect to larger markets in order to promote development. The prefecture’s total output in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery amounted to just over $5 billion in 2012, and its population was less than 4 million in 2010, hardly a market with windfall gains for Pakistan.However, for the Chinese, this is the main driving force behind investing in Pakistan’s agriculture, in addition to the many profitable opportunities that can open up for their enterprises from operating in the local market. The plan makes some reference to export of agriculture goods from the ports, but the bulk of its emphasis is focused on the opportunities for the Kashgar Prefecture and Xinjiang Production Corps, coupled with the opportunities for profitable engagement in the domestic market.The plan discusses those engagements in considerable detail. Ten key areas for engagement are identified along with seventeen specific projects. They include the construction of one NPK fertilizer plant as a starting point “with an annual output of 800,000 tons”. Enterprises will be inducted to lease farm implements, like tractors, “efficient plant protection machinery, efficient energy saving pump equipment, precision fertilization drip irrigation equipment” and planting and harvesting machinery.The plan shows great interest in the textiles industry in particular, but the interest is focused largely on yarn and coarse cloth.Meat processing plants in Sukkur are planned with annual output of 200,000 tons per year, and two demonstration plants processing 200,000 tons of milk per year. In crops, demonstration projects of more than 6,500 acres will be set up for high yield seeds and irrigation, mostly in Punjab. In transport and storage, the plan aims to build “a nationwide logistics network, and enlarge the warehousing and distribution network between major cities of Pakistan” with a focus on grains, vegetables and fruits. Storage bases will be built first in Islamabad and Gwadar in the first phase, then Karachi, Lahore and another in Gwadar in the second phase, and between 2026-2030, Karachi, Lahore and Peshawar will each see another storage base.Asadabad, Islamabad, Lahore and Gwadar will see a vegetable processing plant, with annual output of 20,000 tons, fruit juice and jam plant of 10,000 tons and grain processing of 1 million tons. A cotton processing plant is also planned initially, with output of 100,000 tons per year.“We will impart advanced planting and breeding techniques to peasant households or farmers by means of land acquisition by the government, renting to China-invested enterprises and building planting and breeding bases” it says about the plan to source superior seeds.In each field, Chinese enterprises will play the lead role. “China-invested enterprises will establish factories to produce fertilizers, pesticides, vaccines and feedstuffs” it says about the production of agricultural materials.“China-invested enterprises will, in the form of joint ventures, shareholding or acquisition, cooperate with local enterprises of Pakistan to build a three-level warehousing system (purchase & storage warehouse, transit warehouse and port warehouse)” it says about warehousing.Then it talks about trade. “We will actively embark on cultivating surrounding countries in order to improve import and export potential of Pakistani agricultural products and accelerate the trade of agricultural products. In the early stages, we will gradually create a favorable industry image and reputation for Pakistan by relying on domestic demand.”Exclusive: CPEC master plan revealedAnd Logistics is only part of the equation: Chinese investments are a diverse portfolio of energy, tourism, mining, public transportation and real estate to give a few examples. Most if not all of these are good diversification away from climate change impacted economic sectors that we expect major disruptions in once water shortages and droughts start to hit more frequently in the next decade.I really want to under line this point again because recall that in the beginning of the answer I talked about how it’s ok to take on debt that ensures the survival and prosperity of our future generations, we should only avoid debt that is for day to day running of current government expenses.CPEC debt is a debt that we are undertaking today to ensure that our children have a future in an era where the Indus Basin will begin turning into a desert and our children will grow up eating crops and meats that are far different from the ones we grew up eating because in their era, those crops and sources of food might not exist in our region anymore.The TLDR Conclusion:Pakistan’s Debt is because of two major reasons:Lack of tax baseEnormous wastage and leakages in government spendingPakistan has been under IMF programs for decades and they have never fixed the government’s problems because the IMF exists to push for a neo-liberal free market order that favors the US rather than fix Pakistan’s problemsAt a time of slow economic growth, embracing an IMF led austerity drive is a suicidal quest. The 2008 economic crises and government responses to it showed that Keynesian style stimulus packages to stir up the economy is what leads to recovery.CPEC is a Keynesian style stimulus for the Pak economy at a time when it’s slowing down. The OBOR, AIIB and CPEC style of infrastructure and trade led growth is critical for low growth developing countries to stir economic growth and avoid the misery of Greek austerity.Beyond just stirring economic growth, CPEC is part of Pakistan’s transition away from an agricultural/semi industrialized country to a more balanced mix of logistics/industry/trade/agriculture/consumption. It also allows the country to adapt to the water stressed, heat wave era of the Climate Change epoch of history.Not everything about CPEC is rosy. This would be a dishonest answer if I said that. We do need to investigate how much our local industries would be impacted by Chinese imports. We do need to investigate that the projects in CPEC have the right ROIs given their expenditure. That these projects are aligned with our long term aims. And that the debt repayments can be met with the ROI from these projects. These are basic precautions.But in general, CPEC is a lifeline for a country like ours thats trapped in debt and low growth in the face of annihilation from climate change. We’re supposed to face the potential heat death of the planet with our economy chained to a wall.The old Pakistan is gone. This will be our second major transformation after 71. And in some ways, it will be more dangerous to navigate and more critical to our survival. The Indus Basin has always been there in the living memory of mankind. It might not be in the near future.We will be walking our children to schools in the deserts of southern Punjab. And driving past the dried out caverns of the now dead Ravi. The very rice we eat will taste different. I’ll tell my children stories of how fruit used to be so cheap and abundant in my life time. How we’d let water run into the street while washing our cars. How Monsoon used to be a fun time to play in the canal rather than a tropical flood that washed away entire communities.A memory can only survive in the minds of the living. When the earth changes, we must change with it. The age of arrogant men telling women to stay in the home is over. The age of you turning your nose up at your neighbor because his faith is different from you is over. It’s a fight to survive the heat death of the earth, we will need all the help we can get. We need to rethink our ideas about “honor” and “Izzat” and right and wrong. The uncaring laws of the universe dont care for our mortal hang ups.CPEC will turn farmers into truck drivers, gun smiths into bio tech technicians and cloth weavers into aqua farmers.I suppose in a way, it’s like changing shape and form, changing bodies and the chemicals that animate them. CPEC will change us all. And there might be no future without it.The translucence of flames beat against the airagainst our skins. This can be done withor without clothes on. This can be done withor without wine or whiskey but never without water:evaporation is also ongoing. Most visibly in this casein the form of wisps of steam rising from the just washed hairof a form at the fire whose beauty was in the earth’sturning, that night and many nights, transcendent.I felt heat changing me. The word for this istransdesire, but in extreme cases we call it transdireor when this heat becomes your maker we saytransire, or when it happens in front of a hearth:transfire.On Trans by Miller ObermanA man drives an improvised motorcycle truck, balancing a precarious load behind him. Perhaps the best image to portray our economy, straddled by debt, innovating it’s way to survival in the 21st century.Image source: China’s $62 Billion Bet on Pakistan

1. Which one of the following was a very important seaport in the Kakatiya kingdom?(a) Kakinada(b) Motupalli(c) Machilipatnam (Masulipatnam)(d) NelluruAnswer. b2. With reference to 'Global Climate Change Alliance', which of the following statements is/are correct?1. It is an initiative of the European Union.2. It provides technical and financial support to targeted developing countries to integrate climate change into their development policies and budgets.3. It is coordinated by World Resources Institute (WRI) and World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD).Select the correct answer using the code given below:(a) 1 and 2 only(b) 3 only(c) 2 and 3 only(d) 1, 2 and 3Answer. a3. With reference to the religious history of India, consider the following statements:1. Sautrantika and Sammitiya were the sects of Jainism.2. Sarvastivadin held that the constituents of phenomena were not wholly momentary, but existed forever in a latent form.Which of the statements given above is/are correct?(a) 1 only(b) 2 only(c) Both 1 and 2(d) Neither 1 nor 2Answer. b4. Mediterranean Sea is a border of which of the following countries?1. Jordan2. Iraq3. Lebanon4. SyriaSelect the correct answer using the code given below:(a) 1, 2 and 3 only(b) 2 and 3 only(c) 3 and 4 only(d) 1, 3 and 4 onlyAnswer. c5. With reference to 'National Investment and Infrastructure Fund', which of the following statements is/are correct?1. It is an organ of NITI Aayog.2. It has a corpus of Rs. 4, 00,000 crore at present.Select the correct answer using the code given below:(a) 1 only(b) 2 only(c) Both 1 and 2(d) Neither 1 nor 2Answer. b6. The Global Infrastructure Facility is a/an(a) ASEAN initiative to upgrade infrastructure in Asia and financed by credit from the Asian Development Bank.(b) World Bank collaboration that facilitates the preparation and structuring of complex infrastructure Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) to enable mobilization of private sector and institutional investor capital.(c) Collaboration among the major banks of the world working with the OECD and focused on expanding the set of infrastructure projects that have the potential to mobilize private investment.(d) UNCTAD funded initiative that seeks to finance and facilitate infrastructure development in the world.Answer.7. For election to the Lok Sabha, a nomination paper can be filed by(a) anyone residing in India.(b) a resident of the constituency from which the election is to be contested.(c) any citizen of India whose name appears in the electoral roll of a constituency.(d) any citizen of India.Answer. d8. Consider the following statements:1. In India, the Himalayas are spread over five States only.2. Western Ghats are spread over five States only.3. Pulicat Lake is spread over two States only.Which of the statements given above is/are correct?(a) 1 and 2 only(b) 3 only(c) 2 and 3 only(d) 1 and 3 onlyAnswer. c9. Biological Oxygen Demand (BOD) is a standard criterion for(a) Measuring oxygen levels in blood(b) Computing oxygen levels in forest ecosystems(c) Pollution assay in aquatic ecosystems(d) Assessing oxygen levels in high altitude regionsAnswer. c10. With reference to the role of UN-Habitat in the United Nations programme working towards a better urban future, which of the statements is/are correct?1. UN-Habitat has been mandated by the United Nations General Assembly to promote socially and environmentally sustainable towns and cities to provide adequate shelter for all.2. Its partners are either governments or local urban authorities only.3. UN-Habitat contributes to the overall objective of the United Nations system to reduce poverty and to promote access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation.Select the correct answer using the code given below:(a) 1, 2 and 3(b) 1 and 3 only(c) 2 and 3 only(d) 1 onlyAnswer. a11. With reference to 'National Skills Qualification Framework (NSQF)', which of the statements given below is/are correct?1. Under NSQF, a learner can acquire the certification for competency only through formal learning.2. An outcome expected from the implementation of NSQF is the mobility between vocational and general education.Select the correct answer using the code given below:(a) 1 only(b) 2 only(c) Both 1 and 2(d) Neither 1 nor 2Answer. b12. In the context of Indian history, the principle of `Dyarchy (diarchy)' refers to(a) Division of the central legislature into two houses.(b) Introduction of double government i.e., Central and State governments.(c) Having two sets of rulers; one in London and another in Delhi.(d) Division of the subjects delegated to the provinces into two categories.Answer. b13. Consider the following in respect of 'National ACareer Service':1. National Career Service is an initiative of the Department of Personnel and Training, Government of India.2. National Career Service has been launched in a Mission Mode to improve the employment opportunities to uneducated youth of the country.Which of the above statements is/are correct?(a) 1 only(b) 2 only(c) Both 1 and 2(d) Neither 1 nor 2Answer. d14. Which of the following statements best k describes the term 'Scheme for Sustainable Structuring of Stressed Assets (S4A)', recently seen in the news?(a) It is a procedure for considering ecological costs of developmental schemes formulated by the Government.(b) It is a scheme of RBI for reworking the financial structure of big corporate entities facing genuine difficulties.(c) It is a disinvestment plan of the Government regarding Central Public Sector Undertakings.(d) It is an important provision in 'The Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code' recently implemented by the Government.Answer. b15. Consider the following statements:1. Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC) to Reduce Short Lived Climate Pollutants is a unique initiative of G20 group of countries.2. The CCAC focuses on methane, black carbon and hydrofluorocarbons.Which of the statements given above is/are correct?(a) 1 only(b) 2 only(c) Both 1 and 2(d) Neither 1 nor 2Answer. b16. With reference to 'Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)' sometimes mentioned in the news while forecasting Indian monsoon, which of the following statements is/are correct?1. IOD phenomenon is characterised by a difference in sea surface temperature between tropical Western Indian Ocean and tropical Eastern Pacific Ocean.2. An IOD phenomenon can influence an El Nino's impact on the monsoon.Select the correct answer using the code given below:(a) 1 only(b) 2 only(c) Both 1 and 2(d) Neither 1 nor 2Answer. c17. If you want to see gharials in their natural habitat, which one of the following is the best place to visit?(a) Bhitarkanika Mangroves(b) Chambal River(c) Pulicat Lake(d) Deepor BeelAnswer. a18. Consider the following in respect of Indian Ocean Naval Symposium (IONS):1. Inaugural IONS was held in India in 2015 under the chairmanship of the Indian Navy.2. IONS is a voluntary initiative that seeks to increase maritime co-operation among navies of the littoral states of the Indian Ocean Region.Which of the above statements is/are correct?(a) 1 only(b) 2 only(c) Both 1 and 2(d) Neither 1 nor 2Answer. b19. The painting of Bodhisattva Padmapani is one of the most famous and oft-illustrated paintings at(a) Ajanta(b) Badami(c) Bagh(d) ElloraAnswer. a20. Consider the following pairs:Traditions Communities1. Chaliha Sahib Festival — Sindhis2. Nanda Raj Jaat Yatra — Gonds3. Wari-Warkari — SanthalsWhich of the pairs given above is/are correctly matched ?(a) 1 only(b) 2 and 3 only(c) 1 and 3 only(d) None of the aboveAnswer. a‎21. Which of the following practices can help in water conservation in agriculture? ‎‎1. Reduced or zero tillage of the land ‎‎2. Applying gypsum before irrigating the field ‎‎3. Allowing crop residue to remain in the field ‎Select the correct answer using the code given below : ‎‎(a) 1 and 2 only‎‎(b) 3 only ‎‎(c) 1 and 3 only ‎‎(d) 1, 2 and 3Answer. c22. Consider the following statements :The nation-wide 'Soil Health Card Scheme' aims at1. expanding the cultivable area under irrigation.2. enabling the banks to assess the quantum of loans to be granted to farmers on the basis of soil quality.3. checking the overuse of fertilizers in farmlands.Which of the above statements is/are correct?(a) 1 and 2 only(b) 3 only(c) 2 and 3 only(d) 1, 2 and 3Answer. c23. Consider the following pairs:Commonly used / Unwanted or controversial chemicalsconsumed materials likely to be found in them1. Lipstick Lead2. Soft drinks Brominated vegetable oils3. Chinese fast food Monosodium glutamateWhich of the pairs given above is/are correctly matched?(a) 1 only(b) 2 and 3 only(c) 1 and 3 only(d) 1, 2 and 3Answer. d24. Organic Light Emitting Diodes (OLEDs) are used to create digital display in many devices. What are the advantages of OLED displays over Liquid Crystal displays?1. OLED displays can be fabricated on flexible plastic substrates.2. Roll-up displays embedded in clothing can be made using OLEDs.3. Transparent displays are possible using OLEDs.Select the correct answer using the code given below(a) 1 and 3 only(b) 2 only(c) 1, 2 and 3(d) None of the above statements is correctAnswer. c25. Which of the following is/are famous for Sun temples?1. Arasavalli2. Amarakantak3. OmkareshwarSelect the correct answer using the code given below :(a) 1 only(b) 2 and 3 only(c) 1 and 3 only(d) 1, 2 and 3Answer. a26. Consider the following statements:1. In the election for Lok Sabha or State Assembly, the winning candidate must get at least 50 percent of the votes polled, to be declared elected.2. According to the provisions laid down in the Constitution of India, in Lok Sabha, the Speaker's post goes to the majority party and the Deputy Speaker's to the Opposition.Which of the statements given above is/are correct?(a) 1 only(b) 2 only(c) Both 1 and 2(d) Neither 1 nor 2Answer. d27. Which of the following has/have occurred in India after its liberalization of economic policies in 1991?1. Share of agriculture in GDP increased enormously.2. Share of India's exports in world trade increased.3. FDI inflows increased.4. India's foreign exchange reserves increased enormously.Select the correct answer using the codes given below :(a) 1 and 4 only(b) 2, 3 and 4 only(c) 2 and 3 only(d) 1, 2, 3 and 4Answer. b28. What is the application of Somatic Cell CJ Nuclear Transfer Technology?(a) Production of biolarvicides(b) Manufacture of biodegradable plastics(c) Reproductive cloning of animals(d) Production of organisms free of diseasesAnswer. c29. Consider the following statements:1. National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI) helps in promoting the financial inclusion in the country.2. NPCI has launched RuPay, a card payment scheme.Which of the statements given above is/are correct?(a) 1 only(b) 2 only(c) Both 1 and 2(d) Neither 1 nor 2Answer. c30. The term M-STrIPES' is sometimes seen in V the news in the context of(a) Captive breeding of Wild Fauna(b) Maintenance of Tiger Reserves(c) Indigenous Satellite Navigation System(d) Security of National HighwaysAnswer. b31. What is/are the most likely advantages of implementing 'Goods and Services Tax (GST)'?1. It will replace multiple taxes collected by multiple authorities and will thus create a single market in India.2. It will drastically reduce the 'Current Account Deficit' of India and will enable it to increase its foreign exchange reserves.3. It will enormously increase the growth and size of economy of India and will enable it to overtake China in the near future.Select the correct answer using the code given below:(a) 1 only(b) 2 and 3 only(c) 1 and 3 only(d) 1, 2 and 3Answer. a32. 'Broad-based Trade and Investment Agreement (BTIA)' is sometimes seen in the news in the context of negotiations held between India and(a) European Union(b) Gulf Cooperation Council(c) Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development(d) Shanghai Cooperation OrganizationAnswer. a33. Consider the following statements:1. India has ratified the Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA) of WTO.2. TFA is a part of WTO's Bali Ministerial Package of 2013.3. TFA came into force in January 2016. Which of the statements given above is/are correct?(a) 1 and 2 only(b) 1 and 3 only(c) 2 and 3 only(d) 1, 2 and 3Answer.34. What is the importance of developing Chabahar Port by India?(a) India's trade with African countries will enormously increase.(b) India's relations with oil-producing Arab countries will be strengthened.(c) India will not depend on Pakistan for access to Afghanistan and Central Asia.(d) Pakistan will facilitate and protect the installation of a gas pipeline between Iraq and India.Answer. c35. In India, it is legally mandatory for which of the following to report on cyber security incidents?1. Service providers2. Data centres3. Body corporateSelect the correct answer using the code given below:(a) 1 only(b) 1 and 2 only(c) 3 only(d) 1, 2 and 3Answer. d36. Right to vote and to be elected in India is a(a) Fundamental Right(b) Natural Right(c) Constitutional Right(d) Legal RightAnswer. d37. What is the purpose of 'evolved Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (eLISA)' project?(a) To detect neutrinos(b) To detect gravitational waves(c) To detect the effectiveness of missile defence system(d) To study the effect of solar flares on our communication systemsAnswer. b38. What is the purpose of Tidyanjali Yojana'?1. To enable the famous foreign educational institutions to open their campuses in India.2. To increase the quality of education provided in government schools by taking help from the private sector and the community.3. To encourage voluntary monetary contributions from private individuals and organizations so as to improve the infrastructure facilities for primary and secondary schools.Select the correct answer using the code given below :(a) 2 only(b) 3 only(c) 1 and 2 only(d) 2 and 3 onlyAnswer. a39. What is the aim of the programme `Unnat Bharat Abhiyan'?(a) Achieving 100% literacy by promoting collaboration between voluntary organizations and government's education system and local communities.(b) Connecting institutions of higher education with local communities to address development challenges through appropriate technologies.(c) Strengthening India's scientific research institutions in order to make India a scientific and technological power.(d) Developing human capital by allocating special funds for health care and education of rural and urban poor, and organizing skill development programmes and vocational training for them.Answer. a40. Consider the following statements :1. The Election Commission of India is a five-member body.2. Union Ministry of Home Affairs decides the election schedule for the conduct of both general elections and bye-elections.3. Election Commission resolves the disputes relating to splits/mergers of recognised political parties.Which of the statements given above is/are correct ?(a) 1 and 2 only(b) 2 only(c) 2 and 3 only(d) 3 onlyAnswer.41. In India, if a species of tortoise is declared protected under Schedule I of the Wildlife (Protection) Act, 1972, what does it imply ?(a) It enjoys the same level of protection as the tiger.(b) It no longer exists in the wild, a few individuals are under captive protection; and now it is impossible to prevent its extinction.(c) It is endemic to a particular region of India.(d) Both (b) and (c) stated above are correct in this context.Answer. a42. In India, Judicial Review implies(a) the power of the Judiciary to pronounce upon the constitutionality of laws and executive orders.(b) the power of the Judiciary to question the wisdom of the laws enacted by the Legislatures.(c) the power of the Judiciary to review all the legislative enactments before they are assented to by the President.(d) the power of the Judiciary to review its own judgements given earlier in similar or different cases.Answer. d43. With reference to Indian freedom struggle, consider the following events :1. Mutiny in Royal Indian Navy2. Quit India Movement launched3. Second Round Table Conference What is the correct chronological sequence of the above events ?(a) 1-2-3(b) 2-1-3(c) 3-2-1(d) 3-1-244. Consider the following statements :1. Tax revenue as a percent of GDP of India has steadily increased in the last decade.2. Fiscal deficit as a percent of GDP of India has steadily increased in the last decade. Which of the statements given above is/are correct ?(a) 1 only(b) 2 only(c) Both 1 and 2(d) Neither 1 nor 2Answer. a45. Recently there was a proposal to translocate some of the lions from their natural habitat in Gujarat to which one of the following sites ?(a) Corbett National Park(b) Kuno Palpur Wildlife Sanctuary(c) Mudumalai Wildlife Sanctuary(d) Sariska National ParkAnswer. b46. Which of the following are not necessarily the consequences of the proclamation of the President's rule in a State?1. Dissolution of the State Legislative Assembly2. Removal of the Council of Ministers in the State3. Dissolution of the local bodiesSelect the correct answer using the code given below:(a) 1 and 2 only(b) 1 and 3 only(c) 2 and 3 only(d) 1, 2and 3Answer. c47. Which of the following are envisaged by the Right against Exploitation in the Constitution of India?1. Prohibition of traffic in human beings and forced labour2. Abolition of untouchability3. Protection of the interests of minorities4. Prohibition of employment of children in factories and mines Select the correct answer using the code given below:(a) 1, 2 and 4 only(b) 2, 3 and 4 only(c) 1 and 4 only(d) 1, 2, 3 and 4Answer.48. Which of the following is geographically Nt,c closest to Great Nicobar ?(a) Sumatra(b) Borneo(c) Java(d) Sri LankaAnswer. a49. Out of the following statements, choose the one that brings out the principle underlying the Cabinet form of Government:(a) An arrangement for minimizing the criticism against the Government whose responsibilities are complex and hard to carry out to the satisfaction of all.(b) A mechanism for speeding up the activities of the Government whose responsibilities are increasing day by day.(c) A mechanism of parliamentary democracy for ensuring collective responsibility of the Government to the people.(d) A device for strengthening the hands of the head of the Government whose hold over the people is in a state of decline.Answer.50. Which one of the following is not a feature of Indian federalism?(a) There is an independent judiciary in India.(b) Powers have been clearly divided between the Centre and the States.(c) The federating units have been given unequal representation in the Rajya Sabha.(d) It is the result of an agreement among the federating units.Answer. c51. The object of the Butler Committee of 1927 was to?(a) Define the jurisdiction of the Central and Provincial Governments.(b) Define the powers of the Secretary of State for India.(c) Impose censorship on national press.(d) Improve the relationship between the Government of India and the Indian States.Answer. d52. The term 'Domestic Content Requirement' is sometimes seen in the news with reference to(a) Developing solar power production in our country(b) Granting licences to foreign T.V. channels in our country(c) Exporting our food products to other countries(d) Permitting foreign educational institutions to set up their campuses in our countryAnswer. a53. Consider the following statements:1. The Nuclear Security Summits are periodically held under the aegis of the United Nations.2. The International Panel on Fissile Materials is an organ of International Atomic Energy Agency.Which of the statements given above is/are correct?(a) 1 only(b) 2 only(c) Both 1 and 2(d) Neither 1 nor 2Answer. d54. Who among the following can join the National Pension System (NPS)?(a) Resident Indian citizens only(b) Persons of age from 21 to 55 only(c) All State Government employees joining the services after the date of notification by the respective State Governments(d) All Central Government employees including those of Armed Forces joining the services on or after 1St April, 2004Answer. c55. With reference to river Teesta, consider the following statements:1. The source of river Teesta is the same as that of Brahmaputra but it flows through Sikkim.2. River Rangeet originates in Sikkim and it is a tributary of river Teesta.3. River Teesta flows into Bay of Bengal on the border of India and Bangladesh.Which of the statements given above is/are correct?(a) 1 and 3 only(b) 2 only(c) 2 and 3 only(d) 1, 2 and 3Answer. b56. Consider the following statements:1. In tropical regions, Zika virus disease is transmitted by the same mosquito that transmits dengue.2. Sexual transmission of Zika virus disease is possible.Which of the statements given above is/are correct?(a) 1 only(b) 2 only(c) Both 1 and 2(d) Neither 1 nor 2Answer. c57. Consider the following statements:1. The Standard Mark of Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) is mandatory for automotive tyres and tubes.2. AGMARK is a quality Certification Mark issued by the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO).Which of the statements given above is/are correct?(a) 1 only(b) 2 only(c) Both 1 and 2(d) Neither 1 nor 2Answer. a58. What is/are the advantage/advantages of implementing the 'National Agriculture Market' scheme?1. It is a pan-India electronic trading portal for agricultural commodities.2. It provides the farmers access to nationwide market, with prices commensurate with the quality of their produce.Select the correct answer using the code given below :(a) 1 only(b) 2 only(c) Both 1 and 2(d) Neither 1 nor 2Answer. c59. With reference to the 'National Intellectual Property Rights Policy', consider the following statements:1. It reiterates India's commitment to the Doha Development Agenda and the TRIPS Agreement.2. Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion is the nodal agency for regulating intellectual property rights in India.Which of the above statements is/are correct?(a) 1 only(b) 2 only(c) Both 1 and 2(d) Neither 1 nor 2Answer. c60. According to the Wildlife (Protection) Act, 1972, which of the following animals cannot be hunted by any person except under some provisions provided by law?1. Ghari al2. Indian wild ass3. Wild buffaloSelect the correct answer using the code given below:(a) 1 only(b) 2 and 3 only(c) 1 and 3 only(d) 1, 2 and 361. Which of the following statements is/are true of the Fundamental Duties of an Indian citizen?1. A legislative process has been provided to enforce these duties.2. They are correlative to legal duties. Select the correct answer using the code given below:(a) 1 only(b) 2 only(c) Both 1 and 2(d) Neither 1 nor 262. Consider the following pairs:1. Radhakanta Deb — First President of the British Indian Association2. Gazulu Lakshminarasu Chetty —Founder of the Madras Mahajana Sabha3. Surendranath Banerjee — Founder of the Indian AssociationWhich of the above pairs is/are correctly matched?(a) 1 only(b) 1 and 3 only(c) 2 and 3 only(d) 1, 2 and 363. Which one of the following objectives is not embodied in the Preamble to the Constitution of India?(a) Liberty of thought(b) Economic liberty(c) Liberty of expression(d) Liberty of belief64. With reference to 'Quality Council of India (QCI)', consider the following statements:1. QCI was set up jointly by the Government of India and the Indian Industry.2. Chairman of QCI is appointed by the Prime Minister on the recommendations of the industry to the Government.Which of the above statements is/are correct?(a) 1 only(b) 2 only(c) Both 1 and 2(d) Neither 1 nor 265. What is the purpose of setting up of Small 9 Finance Banks (SFBs) in India?1. To supply credit to small business units2. To supply credit to small and marginal farmers3. To encourage young entrepreneurs to set up business particularly in rural areas.Select the correct answer using the code given below:(a) 1 and 2 only(b) 2 and 3 only(c) 1 and 3 only(d) 1, 2 and 366. With reference to 'Asia Pacific Ministerial Conference on Housing and Urban Development (APMCHUD)', consider the following statements:1. The first APMCHUD was held in India in 2006 on the theme 'Emerging Urban Forms — Policy Responses and Governance Structure'.2. India hosts all the Annual Ministerial Conferences in partnership with ADB, APEC and ASEAN.Which of the statements given above is/are correct?(a) 1 only(b) 2 only(c) Both 1 and 2(d) Neither 1 nor 267. Democracy's superior virtue lies in the fact 9 that it calls into activity(a) the intelligence and character of ordinary men and women.(b) the methods for strengthening executive leadership.(c) a superior individual with dynamism and vision.(d) a band of dedicated party workers.68. Which of the following is a most likely consequence of implementing the 'Unified Payments Interface (UPI)’?(a) Mobile wallets will not be necessary for online payments.(b) Digital currency will totally replace the physical currency in about two decades.(c) FDI inflows will drastically increase.(d) Direct transfer of subsidies to poor people will become very effective.69. The terms 'Event Horizon', 'Singularity', `String Theory' and 'Standard Model' are sometimes seen in the news in the context of(a) Observation and understanding of the Universe(b) Study of the solar and the lunar eclipses(c) Placing satellites in the orbit of the Earth(d) Origin and evolution of living organisms on the Earth70. With reference to agriculture in India, how can the technique of `genome sequencing', often seen in the news, be used in the immediate future?1. Genome sequencing can be used to identify genetic markers for disease resistance and drought tolerance in various crop plants.2. This technique helps in reducing the time required to develop new varieties of crop plants.3. It can be used to decipher the host-pathogen relationships in crops.Select the correct answer using the code given below:(a) 1 only(b) 2 and 3 only(c) 1 and 3 only(d) 1, 2 and 371. The main advantage of the parliamentary form of government is that(a) the executive and legislature work independently.(b) it provides continuity of policy and is more efficient.(c) the executive remains responsible to the legislature.(d) the head of the government cannot be changed without election.72. In the context of India, which one of the following is the correct relationship between Rights and Duties?(a) Rights are correlative with Duties.(b) Rights are personal and hence independent of society and Duties.(c) Rights, not Duties, are important for the advancement of the personality of the citizen.(d) Duties, not Rights, are important for the stability of the State.73. The mind of the makers of the Constitution of India is reflected in which of the following?(a) The Preamble(b) The Fundamental Rights(c) The Directive Principles of State Policy(d) The Fundamental Duties74. If you travel by road from Kohima to Kottayam, what is the minimum number of States within India through which you can travel, including the origin and the destination?(a) 6(b) 7(c) 8(d) 975. The Parliament of India exercises control over the functions of the Council of Ministers through1. Adjournment motion2. Question hour3. Supplementary questionsSelect the correct answer using the code given below:(a) 1 only(b) 2 and 3 only(c) 1 and 3 only(d) 1, 2 and 376. With reference to the Parliament of India, 4 consider the following statements:1. A private member's bill is a bill presented by a Member of Parliament who is not elected but only nominated by the President of India.2. Recently, a private member's bill has been passed in the Parliament of India for the first time in its history.Which of the statements given above is/are correct?(a) 1 only(b) 2 only(c) Both 1 and 2(d) Neither 1 nor 277. With reference to the difference between the culture of Rigvedic Aryans and Indus Valley people, which of the following statements is/are correct?1. Rigvedic Aryans used the coat of mail and helmet in warfare whereas the people of Indus Valley Civilization did not leave any evidence of using them.2. Rigvedic Aryans knew gold, silver and copper whereas Indus Valley people knew only copper and iron.3. Rigvedic Aryans had domesticated the horse whereas there is no evidence of Indus Valley people having been aware of this animal.Select the correct answer using the code given below:(a) 1 only(b) 2 and 3 only(c) 1 and 3 only(d) 1, 2 and 378. Recognition of Prior Learning Scheme' is sometimes mentioned in the news with reference to(a) Certifying the skills acquired by construction workers through traditional channels.(b) Enrolling the persons in Universities for distance learning programmes.(c) Reserving some skilled jobs to rural and urban poor in some public sector undertakings.(d) Certifying the skills acquired by trainees under the National Skill Development Programme.79. From the ecological point of view, which one of the following assumes importance in being a good link between the Eastern Ghats and the Western Ghats?(a) Sathyamangalam Tiger Reserve(b) Nallamala Forest(c) Nagarhole National Park(d) Seshachalam Biosphere Reserve80. One of the implications of equality in society is the absence of(a) Privileges(b) Restraints(c) Competition(d) Ideology81. Consider the following statements in respect of Trade Related Analysis of Fauna and Flora in Commerce (TRAFFIC):1. TRAFFIC is a bureau under United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).2. The mission of TRAFFIC is to ensure that trade in wild plants and animals is not a threat to the conservation of nature.Which of the above statements is/are correct?(a) 1 only(b) 2 only(c) Both 1 and 2(d) Neither 1 nor 282. Which principle among the 'following was added to the Directive Principles of Stat Policy by the 42nd Amendment to the Constitution?(a) Equal pay for equal work for both men and women(b) Participation of workers in the management of industries(c) Right to work, education and public assistance(d) Securing living wage and human conditions of work to workersAnswer. b83. Which one of the following statements is correct?(a) Rights are claims of the State against the citizens.(b) Rights are privileges which are incorporated in the Constitution of a State.(c) Rights are claims of the citizens against the State.(d) Rights are privileges of a few citizens against the many.Answer. c84. Which of the following gives 'Global Gender lb Gap Index' ranking to the countries of the world?(a) World Economic Forum(b) UN Human Rights Council(c) UN Women(d) World Health OrganizationAnswer. a85. Which of the following statements is/are correct regarding Smart India Hackathon 2017?1. It is a centrally sponsored scheme for developing every city of our country into Smart Cities in a decade.2. It is an initiative to identify new digital technology innovations for solving the many problems faced by our country.3. It is a programme aimed at making all the financial transactions in our country completely digital in a decade.Select the correct answer using the code given below :(a) 1 and 3 only(b) 2 only(c) 3 only(d) 2 and 3 onlyAnswer. b86. Which of the following statements is/are correct regarding the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)?1. It decides the RBI's benchmark interest rates.2. It is a 12-member body including the Governor of RBI and is reconstituted every year.3. It functions under the chairmanship of the Union Finance Minister.Select the correct answer using the code given below :(a) 1 only(b) 1 and 2 only(c) 3 only(d) 2 and 3 onlyAnswer. a87. With reference to Manipuri Sankirtana, consider the following statements:1. It is a song and dance performance.2. Cymbals are the only musical instruments used in the performance.3. It is performed to narrate the life and deeds of Lord Krishna.Which of the statements given above is/are correct?(a) 1, 2 and 3.(b) 1 and 3 only(c) 2 and 3 only(d) 1 onlyAnswer. b88. Who among the following was/were associated with the introduction of Ryotwari Settlement in India during the British rule?1. Lord Cornwallis2. Alexander Read3. Thomas MunroSelect the correct answer using the code given below:(a) 1 only(b) 1 and 3 only(c) 2 and 3 only(d) 1, 2 and 3Answer. c89. In the context of solving pollution problems, what is/are the advantage/advantages of bioremediation technique?1. It is a technique for cleaning up pollution by enhancing the same biodegradation process that occurs in nature.2. Any contaminant with heavy metals such as cadmium and lead can be readily and completely treated by bioremediation using microorganisms.3. Genetic engineering can be used to create microorganisms specifically designed for bioremediation. Select the correct answer using the code given below:(a) 1 only(b) 2 and 3 only(c) 1 and 3 only(d) 1, 2 and 390. The Trade Disputes Act of 1929 provided for(a) the participation of workers in the management of industries.(b) arbitrary powers to the management to quell industrial disputes.(c) an intervention by the British Court in the event of a trade dispute.(d) a system of tribunals and a ban on strikes.91. Local self-government can be best explained as an exercise in(a) Federalism(b) Democratic decentralisation(c) Administrative delegation(d) Direct democracy92. Consider the following statements:With reference to the Constitution of India, the Directive Principles of State Policy constitute limitations upon1. legislative function.2. executive function.Which of the above statements is/are correct?(a) 1 only(b) 2 only(c) Both 1 and 2(d) Neither 1 nor 293. The term 'Digital Single Market Strategy' seen in the news refers to(a) ASEAN(b) BRICS(c) EU(d) G20Answer. c94, At one of the places in India, if you stand on the seashore and watch the sea, you will find that the sea water recedes from the shore line a few kilometres and comes back to the shore, twice a day, and you can actually walk on the sea floor when the water recedes. This unique phenomenon is seen at(a) Bhavnagar(b) Bheemunipatnam(c) Chandipur(d) Nagapattinam.Answer. c95. With reference to the 'Prohibition of Benami Property Transactions Act, 1988 (PBPT Act)', consider the following statements:1. A property transaction is not treated as a benami transaction if the owner of the property is not aware of the transaction.2. Properties held benami are liable for confiscation by the Government.3. The Act provides for three authorities for investigations but does not provide for any appellate mechanism. Which of the statements .given above is/are correct?(a) 1 only(b) 2 only(c) 1 and 3 only(d) 2 and 3 only96. Due to some reasons, if there is a huge fall in the population of species of butterflies, what could be its likely consequence/consequences?1. Pollination of some plants could be adversely affected.2. There could be a drastic increase in the fungal infections of some cultivated plants.3. It could lead to a fall in the population of some species of wasps, spiders and birds.Select the correct answer using the code given below:(a) 1 only(b) 2 and 3 only(c) 1 and 3 only(d) 1, 2 and 397. It is possible to produce algae based biofuels, but what is/are the likely limitation(s) of developing countries in promoting this industry?1. Production of algae based biofuels is possible in seas only and not on continents.2. Setting up and engineering the algae based biofuel production requires high level of expertise/technology until the construction is completed.3. Economically viable production necessitates the setting up of large scale facilities which may raise ecological and social concerns.Select the correct answer using the code given below:(a) 1 and 2 only(b) 2 and 3 only(c) 3 only(d) 1, 2 and 398. Which of the following are the objectives of 'National Nutrition Mission'?1. To create awareness relating to malnutrition among pregnant women and lactating mothers.2. To reduce the incidence of anaemia among young children, adolescent girls and women.3. To promote the consumption of millets, coarse cereals and unpolished rice.4. To promote the consumption of poultry eggs.Select the correct answer using the code given below:(a) 1 and 2 only(b) 1, 2 and 3 only(c) 1, 2 and 4 only(d) 3 and 4 onlyAnswer. a99. Consider the following statements:1. The Factories Act, 1881 was passed with a view to fix the wages of industrial workers and to allow the workers to form trade unions.2. N.M. Lokhande was a pioneer in organizing the labour movement in British India. Which of the above statements is/are correct?(a) 1 only(b) 2 only(c) Both 1 and 2(d) Neither 1 nor 2Answer. c100. In the context of mitigating the impending global warming due to anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide, which of the following can be the potential sites for carbon sequestration?1. Abandoned and uneconomic coal seams2. Depleted oil and gas reservoirs3. Subterranean deep saline formationsSelect the correct answer using the code given below:(a) 1 and 2 only(b) 3 only(c) 1 and 3 only(d) 1, 2 and 3Answer. d

No. Bush fires are a natural part of the Australia climate. I agree with Terry Huribut that humans are primary cause of bush fires not weather or climate change. After the horrific Black Friday bush fire of 1939 killing many more than 2019 Australia commissioned the Stretton Royal Commission to look into causes and how to prevent future severe bush fires. In CHAPTER II the Commission concluded:“Immediate Causes.—Almost all fires are caused by man.”The 36 page report is available free here and full of useful evidence relevant to the fires of 2019.ref. http://www.voltscommissar.net/docs/Leonard_Stretton-1939_Bush_Fires_Royal_Commission_Report.pdfThe Australian Aborigines used control burn for as long back as 40,000 years.The Australian soil is enhanced with grass fires from time immemorial and in fact Aborigines have used fire sticks for this purpose. Sometimes controlled burns get out of control.Aboriginal burn practices again used on countryA recent burn conducted at a bush reserve near Wedderburn held significance beyond being a land management tool.Members of the Dja Dja Wurrung community applied the burning practices of their ancestors to Bush Heritage Australia’s Nardoo Hills Reserve, a parcel of land set aside for bush regeneration and conservation.“Our fire management practice, which we call Djandak Wii, is an obligation we have to the land, and we love to see the greater biodiversity it brings, and the gradual return to health it brings to country,” Dja Dja Wurrung Clans Aboriginal Corporation chief executive officer Rodney Carter said.Learning The Lessons From The Waroona BushfiresJANUARY 22, 2020tags: Australia, wildfiresBy Paul Homewoodh/t Dennis AmblerIt has surely now been established beyond any possible doubt the major role that poor fire hazard management has played in the severity of recent Australian bushfires, despite disinformation campaigns from the BBC/Guardian/Met Office.Back in 2016, a Special Inquiry was held following the catastrophic Waroona bushfire, just south of Perth that year. Their report not only reemphasised the crucial role of controlled burning, but also gives an insight into the evolution of such practices in recent decades:https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/bushfire-waroona-yarloop-fire-2016/image Bushfire - Waroona-Yarloop fire, 2016 | Australian Disaster Resilience Knowledge HubBelow is the key segment of the report. [The data relates to Western Australia, and P&W refers to the Department of Parks and Wildlife].The continuous decline in the area control burned since the 1960s is startling, and nothing less than criminally negligent in my view.Learning The Lessons From The Waroona BushfiresIt is counterintuitive but a controlled burn will reduce the next bush fire severity by removing the fuel of the under bush. An Australian Royal Commission after the deadly fire of 1839 confirmed this.Black Friday bushfiresFrom Wikipedia, the free encyclopediaJump to navigationJump to searchBlack Friday bushfiresNearly two million hectares of the State burned on Black Friday, 13 January 1939. Source:State Library of Victoria.The Black Friday bushfires of 13 January 1939, in Victoria, Australia, were among the worst natural bushfires (wildfires) in the world. Almost 20,000 sq km(4,942,000 acres, 2,000,000 ha) of land was burned, 71 people died, several towns were entirely obliterated and the Royal Commission that resulted from it led to major changes in forest management. Over 1,300 homes and 69 sawmills were burned, and 3,700 buildings were destroyed. It was calculated that three-quarters of the State of Victoria was directly or indirectly affected by the disaster. The Royal Commission noted that "it appeared the whole State was alight on Friday, 13 January 1939". W.http://www.voltscommissar.net/docs/Leonard_Stretton-1939_Bush_Fires_Royal_Commission_Report.pdf“RIDICULOUSLY INADEQUATE CONTROLLED BURN”The Royal Commission noted that "it appeared the whole State was alight on Friday, 13 January 1939.“ Very strong criticism of inadequate use of controlled burn to prevent severe fires and the Report explained the competing interests. Surely the same criticism is applicable for the bush fires of 2019 eighty years later. Failing to learn from the past mistakes about land management is a key problem for todays severe fires.CHAPTER II. THE CAUSES AND ORIGINS OF THE SERIOUS BUSH FIRES WHICH BURNED IN VARIOUS PARTS OF VICTORIA DURING THE MONTH OF JANUARY, 1939.The first paragraph of the Commission of Inquiry has been used as the title to this Chapter. It is not intended that what follows under this head should be thoroughly exhaustive. The matter is best restricted to those things which have been found to be of practical and real importance. Except that the summer of 1938­39 was unusually dry and that it followed what already had been a period of drought, the causes of the 1939 bushfires were no different from those of any other summer. There were, as there always have been, immediate and remote causes. Upon examination, which is not now undertaken, it will appear that no one cause may properly be said to have been the sole cause. The major, over­riding cause, which comprises all others, is the indifference with which forest fires, as a menace to the interests of us all, have been regarded. They have been considered to be matters of individual interest, for treatment by individuals. As a great deal of what might be said under this heading will be said expressly or by implication later in this Report, it is thought that this chapter may well be compressed.11 The causes, of the fires under discussion are set out as follows :— (a) Dry Season and Dry Forests.— Further elaboration is unnecessary. (b) The Condition of the Forests.— When the early settlers came to what is now this State, they found for the greater part a clean forest. Apparently for many years before their arrival, the forest had not been scourged by fire. They were in their natural state. Their canopies had prevented the growth of scrub and bracken to any wide extent. They were open and traversible by men, beasts and wagons. Compared with their present condition, they were safe. But the white men introduce fire to the forests. They burned the floor to promote the growth of grass and to clear it of scrub which had grown where, for whatever reason, the balance of nature had broken down. The fire stimulated grass growth, but it encouraged scrub growth far more. Thus was begun the cycle of destruction which can not be arrested in our day. The scrub grew and flourished, fire was used to clear it, the scrub grew faster and thicker, bush fires, caused by the careless or designing hand of man, ravaged the forests; the canopy was impaired, more scrub grew and prospered, and again the cleansing agent, fire, was used. And so to­day, in places where our forefathers rode, driving their herds and flocks before them, the wombat and wallaby are hard put to it to find passage through the bush. (c) Various Interests.—It is in these forests which are in the condition described, that various people have followed their various interests and have been permitted to adopt various and conflicting methods or no methods of fire protection. (d) Land Utilization Control.—It has already been shown by example that the absence of any method of co­ordinating the interests and duties of Public Departments and other forest users has been a contributory cause. (e) Permanent Fire Authority.—There has been none. (f) Immediate Causes.—Almost all fires are caused by man. The experience of the past shows that the persons who caused the 1939 fires are to be found among the following classes which are set forth in a descending scale of frequency of responsibility for fire; the manner in and reason for which they cause fire is shortly indicated:— (i) Settlers.—Burning off for growth, clearing or protection. Graziers.—Burning to promote grass growth. Miners and Prospectors.—Clearing to facilitate operations. (ii) Sportsmen.—Neglect of camp­fires, billy fires. Tourists.—Lighted matches for smoking. Campers.—Burning, to facilitate passage through the bush. (iii) Forest Workers.—Misuse of fire used for mill operations and for domestic purposes. (iv) Persons using roads.—Neglect of billyfires ; lighted matches; and burning obstructing logs on roadway. (v) Road and Railway Work Gangs.—Billy and camp fires ; careless burning off on railway property. (vi) Locomotives.—Defective spark arresters. (vii) Lightning.— Infrequent, as generally followed by rain. Of these classes settlers, miners and graziers are the most prolific fire causing agents. The percentage of fires caused by them far exceeds that of any other class. Their firing is generally deliberate. All other firing is, generally, due to carelessness. (g) Laws Relating to Fire Prevention in Reserved and Protected Forests.—The relevant provisions of law which govern the matters of prevention are not here set out. They are to be found in Section 20, Police Offences Act 1928, and Sections 68, 69CHAPTER III. THE MEASURES TAKEN TO PREVENT THE OUTBREAK AND SPREAD OF SUCH FIRES AND THE MEASURES TAKEN TO PROTECT LIFE AND PRIVATE AND PUBLIC PROPERTY. The second paragraph of the Commission of Inquiry forms the title of this chapter. It is to be remembered that it is the 1939 fires to which the paragraph refers. As fire is one of the necessary concomitants of living, it is suggested that it is impossible to prevent the outbreak of bush­fires as long as mankind pursues his manifold interests in the bush. To forbid the forests to all men would be absurd, unjust and impossible of enforcement. That such measures as were being used to prevent the outbreak of bush fires were shown in January 1939 to have failed, is insufficient of itself to lay blame upon anybody whose duty it was to devise and operate those measures. The season was exceptional. There were no means of policing a policy of prevention. Lack of men, of money and of education constituted a dead weight against which the available puny forces of prevention were powerless. The regular forces of prevention of the outbreak and spread of fires consisted in the main of the Bush Fire Brigades, the Country Fire Brigades and the staffs of the Forests Commission and the Melbourne and Metropolitan Board of Works. Other forces, if they may be so termed, consisted of individual persons whose measures were largely illegal and dangerous. The Bush Fire Brigade and the Country Fire Brigades, which are the most valuable fire fighting forces in the State are not empowered to take preventive measures. Their powers arise only when a fire has begun, whereupon they may seek to check its spread. For any practical purpose, no duty of prevention of the outbreak of fires, other than the rather negative duty created by the law as it exists is cast upon any private person or local government body, although it would 14 appear that permissive powers are conferred upon municipalities under the Local Government Act 1928. With the exception of the limited class of case contemplated by Section 70 of the Forests Act which empowers the Forests Commission to compel an owner of land within 50 yards of any reserved forest to clear his property, no provision for compulsory preventive measures exists. It was this state of affairs which the Forests Commission and the Board of Works faced in the summer of 1938­39. The law was inadequate, ineffective and flouted. The people were hostile to these authorities. The Forests Commission was hampered in its intended preventive and safeguarding operations by lack of money. Nevertheless, that lack of money cannot excuse some of its failures to protect life and private and public property. It is not suggested that the fires of 1939 could have been prevented, but much could have been done to prevent their spread and their attaining such destructive force and magnitude. The heading of this chapter is considered in two parts: (a) Measures taken to prevent the outbreak and spread of bushfires. The Board of Works and the Forests Commission were virtually the only preventive agents in the State— (i) The Board of Works.—The Board has permitted a condition of great danger to exist in its areas. Being apparently well supplied with money, it has for preventive purposes an adequate staff and good organization. The area it controls is comparatively small and manageable. For the greater part its methods accord with those that have been practices, but on too small a scale, by the Forests Commission. The difference in substance between the methods of these two bodies is that the Board refuses to use burning as a general preventive method. It is long established by foresters in other parts of the world that in conditions such as exist in many parts of the Board’s areas,—burning is the only effective safeguard. The Board has practised burning for marginal protection of its areas. But where the areas abut on or are adjacent to other forests or settlement the precaution taken in some cases to be insufficient to arrest the spread of fires from the Board’s territories, whatever the place of origin of such fires may have been. As a method of compartmenting its areas or of making protective breaks, burning is not employed by the Board. It argues that fire in its area is harmful to water supply. It relies on the growth of forest canopy to suppress inflammable scrub. It admits that in large tracts of its territory, the canopy is impaired and cannot be restored until many years have passed, and that while the restoration is proceeding, we may expect at least two abnormal seasons which will bring with them abnormal bush fires. So it would appear, by the argument advanced by the Board, that having regard to the certain recurrence of major bush fires in the known cycle of abnormal seasons, the Board’s property must always remain dangerously inflammable. It appears that a large part of the Board’s policy of prevention of outbreak and spread of fires is to be left to Nature. Nature, however, in another department of its working sends the abnormal season which encourages the major fire which consumes the forest. The methods of prevention of spread and outbreak otherwise employed by the Board are adequate and in conformity with good forestry practice. Reverting to the title of this chapter, it is found that the condition ofReport of the Royal Commission to inquire into the causes of and measures taken to prevent the bush fires of January, 1939 and to protect life and property and the measures to be taken to prevent bush fires in Victoria and to protect life and property in the event of future bush fires.Arson, mischief and recklessness: 87 per cent of fires are man-madeBy Paul ReadNovember 18, 2019 — 12.00amBUSHFIRESThere are, on average, 62,000 fires in Australia every year. Only a very small number strike far from populated areas and satellite studies tell us that lightning is responsible for only 13 per cent. Not so the current fires threatening to engulf Queensland and NSW. There were no lightning strikes on most of the days when the fires first started in September. Although there have been since, these fires – joining up to create a new form of mega-fire – are almost all man-made.About 40 per cent of fires are deliberately lit ... The Hillville fire that destroyed homes last week.CREDIT:NICK MOIRA 2015 satellite analysis of 113,000 fires from 1997-2009 confirmed what we had known for some time – 40 per cent of fires are deliberately lit, another 47 per cent accidental. This generally matches previous data published a decade earlier that about half of all fires were suspected or deliberate arson, and 37 per cent accidental. Combined, they reach the same conclusion: 87 per cent are man-made.Arson, mischief and recklessness: 87 per cent of fires are man-madeSmoke And Deception Blanket Australia: NASA GISS Fudges Data, Cooling Turns Into WarmingBy P Gosselin on3. January 2020By Kiryeand P GosselinWe’ve been hearing much fake news about the Australian bush fires supposedly having been caused by man-made climate change. Yet it has emerged that Australian authorities were warned years ago that poor land management practices were in fact escalating the risk of devastating fires, according to an expert.Forest fuel level highest in 1000 yearsIn 2015, bush fire scientist David Packham warned of a “huge blaze threat” and urged an “increase in fuel reduction burns”.“Forest fuel levels had climbed to their most dangerous level in thousands of years,” wrote Darren Gray here in 2015. Today the public is being misled by climate alarmists and the media on the real causes of the devastating bush fires now taking place.In fact NASA data shows that the area burned by global wildfires dropped by 25% since 2003, according to the Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)Misleading temperature trendsUnfortunately, deception is not only taking place in the communication of Australian bush fires, but also authorities (NASA GISS) are grossly misleading the public in terms of temperature trends in Australia.Arson, mischief and recklessness: 87 per cent of fires are man-madeSmoke And Deception Blanket Australia: NASA GISS Fudges Data, Cooling Turns Into WarmingBy P Gosselin on3. January 2020By Kiryeand P GosselinWe’ve been hearing much fake news about the Australian bush fires supposedly having been caused by man-made climate change. Yet it has emerged that Australian authorities were warned years ago that poor land management practices were in fact escalating the risk of devastating fires, according to an expert.Forest fuel level highest in 1000 yearsIn 2015, bush fire scientist David Packham warned of a “huge blaze threat” and urged an “increase in fuel reduction burns”.“Forest fuel levels had climbed to their most dangerous level in thousands of years,” wrote Darren Gray here in 2015. Today the public is being misled by climate alarmists and the media on the real causes of the devastating bush fires now taking place.In fact NASA data shows that the area burned by global wildfires dropped by 25% since 2003, according to the Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)Misleading temperature trendsUnfortunately, deception is not only taking place in the communication of Australian bush fires, but also authorities (NASA GISS) are grossly misleading the public in terms of temperature trends in Australia.What follows are the curves of six Australian station that go back to the late 19th century. The comparator shows the plots of GISS “unadjusted data compared to the “homogenized” data:Data: NASA GISSBefore the homogenization, the unadjusted data from 4 of the 6 stations showed cooling.But after NASA changed the data, the cooling disappeared and all 6 stations showed warming!Looking at the three stations Yamba. Moruya and Darwin, here we see that NASA dropped the early part of the temperature record (because they showed warm temperatures?). The result of course is a greater warming trend.Look at NASA GISS data plots for Darwin Airport for example. See the huge differences between the versions:So whenever people claim warming is man-made, they are right. But it’s not so much because of the CO2 emitted by man, but rather it is because of the statistical fudging of data at NASA GISS.ref. Smoke And Deception Blanket Australia: NASA GISS Fudges Data, Cooling Turns Into WarmingClimatologist: Blaming Aussie Bushfires On Climate Change Is ‘Alarmist Nonsense’WRITTEN BY ROY W. SPENCER, PH.D. ONJAN 9, 2020 POSTED IN LATEST NEWSSummary Points1) Global wildfire activity has decreased in recent decades, making any localized increase (or decrease) in wildfire activity difficult to attribute to ‘global climate change’.2) Like California, Australia is prone to bushfires every year during the dry season. Ample fuel and dry weather exist for devastating fires each year, even without excessive heat or drought, as illustrated by the record number of hectares burned (over 100 million) during 1974-75 when above-average precipitation and below-average temperatures existed.3) Australian average temperatures in 2019 were well above what global warming theory can explain, illustrating the importance of natural year-to-year variability in weather patterns (e.g. drought and excessively high temperatures).4) Australia precipitation was at a record low in 2019, but climate models predict no long-term trend in Australia precipitation, while the observed trend has been upward, not downward. This again highlights the importance of natural climate variability to fire weather conditions, as opposed to human-induced climate change.5) While reductions in prescribed burning have probably contributed to the irregular increase in the number of years with large bush fires, a five-fold increase in population in the last 100 years has greatly increased potential ignition sources, both accidental and purposeful.Historical BackgroundAustralia has a long history of bush fires, with the Aborigines doing prescribed burns centuries (if not millennia) before European settlement.A good summary of the history of bushfires and their management was written by the CSIRO Division of Forestry twenty-five years ago, entitled Bushfires – An Integral Part of Australia’s Environment.The current claim by many that human-caused climate change has made Australian bushfires worse is difficult to support, for a number of reasons.Bushfires (like wildfires elsewhere in the world) are a natural occurrence wherever there is strong seasonality in precipitation, with vegetation growing during the wet season and then becoming fuel for fire during the dry season.All other factors being equal, wildfires (once ignited) will be made worse by higher temperatures, lower humidity, and stronger winds.But with the exception of dry lightning, the natural sources of fire ignition are pretty limited. High temperatures and low humidity alone do not cause dead vegetation to spontaneously ignite.As the human population increases, the potential ignition sources have increased rapidly. The population of Australia has increased five-fold in the last 100 years (from 5 million to 25 million).Discarded cigarettes and matches, vehicle catalytic converters, sparks from electrical equipment and transmission lines, campfires, prescribed burns going out of control, and arson are some of the more obvious sources of human-caused ignition, and these can all be expected to increase with population.Trends in Bushfire ActivityThe following plot shows the major Australian bushfires over the same period of time (100 years) as the five-fold increase in the population of Australia. The evidence is fires correlate with increased population and not increased temperature.The data come from Wikipedia’s Bushfires in Australia.Australia’s High-Temperature TrendsThe following plot (in red) shows the yearly average variations in daily high temperatures for Australia, compared to the 40-year average during 1920-1959.Fig. 2. Yearly average high temperatures in Australia as estimated from thermometer data (red) and as simulated by the average of 41 climate models (blue). (Source).Also shown in Fig. 2 (in blue) is the average of 41 CMIP5 climate models daily high temperature for Australia (from the KNMI Climate Explorer website). There are a few important points to be made from this plot.First, if we correlate the yearly temperatures in Fig. 2 with the bushfire land area burned in Fig. 1, there is essentially no correlation (-0.11), primarily because of the huge 1974-75 event.If that year is removed from the data, there is a weak positive correlation (+0.19, barely significant at the 2-sigma level).But having statistics depend so much on single events (in this case, their removal from the dataset) is precisely one of the reasons why we should not use the current (2019-2020) wildfire events as an indicator of long-term climate change.Secondly, while it is well known that the CMIP5 models are producing too much warming in the tropics compared to observations, in Australia just the opposite is happening: the BOM temperatures are showing more rapid warming than the average of the climate models produces.This could be a spurious result of changes in Australian thermometer measurement technology and data processing as has been claimed by Jennifer Marohasy.Or, maybe the discrepancy is from natural climate variability. Who knows?Finally, note the huge amount of year-to-year temperature variability in Fig. 2.Clearly, 2019 was exceptionally warm, but a good part of that warmth was likely due to natural variations in the tropics and subtropics, due to persistent El Nino conditions and associated changes in where precipitation regions versus clear air regions tend to get established in the tropics and subtropics.Australia Precipitation TrendsTo drive home the point that any given year should not be used as evidence of a long-term trend, Australia precipitation provides an excellent example.The following plot is like the temperature plot above (Fig. 2), but for precipitation, as reported by the BOM (data here).Fig. 3. As in Fig. 2, but for annual precipitation totals.We can see that 2019 was definitely a dry year in Australia, right? Possibly a record-setter.But the long-term trend has been upward (not downward), again illustrating the fact that any given year might not have anything to do with the long-term trend, let alone human-induced climate change.And regarding the latter, the blue curve in Fig. 3 shows that the expectation of global warming theory as embodied by the average of 41 climate models is that there should have been no long-term trend in Australia precipitation, despite claims by the media, pseudo-experts, and Hollywood celebrities to the contrary.Keep in mind that wildfire risk can actually increase with more precipitation during the growing season preceding fire season. More precipitation produces more fuel.In fact, there is a positive correlation between the precipitation data in Fig. 3 and bushfire hectares burned (+0.30, significant at the 3-sigma level).Now, I am not claiming that hot, dry conditions do not favor more bushfire activity. They indeed do (during fire season), everything else being the same.But the current 2019-2020 increase in bushfires would be difficult to tie to global warming theory based upon the evidence in the above three plots.Global Wildfire ActivityIf human-caused climate change (or even natural climate change) was causing wildfire activity to increase, it should show up much better in global statistics than in any specific region, like Australia.Of course, any specific region can have an upward (or downward) trend in wildfire activity, simply because of the natural, chaotic variations in weather and climate.But, contrary to popular perception, a global survey of wildfire activity has found that recent decades have actually experienced less fire activity (Doerr & Santin, 2016), not more.This means there are more areas experiencing a decrease in wildfire activity than there are areas experiencing more wildfires.Why isn’t this decrease being attributed to human-caused climate change?Concluding CommentsThere are multiple reasons why people have the impression that wildfires are getting worse and human-caused climate change is to blame. First, the news tends to report only disasters… not a lack of disasters.The desire for more clicks means that headlines are increasingly sensationalized. The media can always find at least one expert to support the desired narrative.Second, the spread of news is now rapid and it penetrates deeply, being spread through social media.Third, an increasing number of environmental advocacy groups seize upon any natural disaster and declare it to be caused by increasing CO2 in the atmosphere.The hyperbolic and counter-factual claims of Extinction Rebellion is one of the best recent examples of this.This is all against a backdrop of government-funded science that receives funding in direct proportion to the threat to life and property that the researcher can claim exists if science answers are not found, and policy is not changed.So, it should come as no surprise that there is political influence on what research gets funding when the outcome of that research directly affects public policy.My personal opinion, based upon the available evidence, is that any long-term increase in wildfire activity in any specific location like Australia (or California) is dominated by the increase in human-caused ignition events, whether they be accidental or purposeful.A related reason is the increasing pressure by the public to reduce prescribed burns, clearing of dead vegetation, and cutting of fire breaks, which the public believes to have short term benefits to beauty and wildlife preservation, but results in long-term consequences that are just the opposite and much worse.Recent news reports claim that dozens of people have been arrested in Australia on arson charges, a phenomenon which we must assume has also increased by at least five-fold (like population) in the last 100 years.Accidental sources of ignition also increase in lockstep with the increasing population and all of the infrastructure that comes along with more people (vehicles, power lines, campfires, discarded matches, and cigarettes, etc.)So, to automatically blame the Australian bushfires on human-caused climate change is mostly alarmist nonsense, with virtually no basis in fact.Read more at Dr. Roy’s BlogClimatologist: Blaming Aussie Bushfires On Climate Change Is 'Alarmist Nonsense'