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How prone is the US to another 2008 financial crisis?

The US will definitely have another financial crisis, but it will be quite a while. Here’s why!The 2008 DebacleThe last great financial collapse—and the last episode of major new financial regulation— was in the early 1930s. In the following 75 years there was remarkable economic stability, particularly from 1985 to 2008, and popular myths like "housing prices don't go down" had long replaced memories of years when they did. By 2008 we had an old structure of financial regulations but an entirely new financial reality. For example,¶ Commercial Banks were no longer the centerpiece of finance. That role had moved to the "shadow banking system" of investment banks, insurance companies, brokerage companies, mutual funds, and other institutions that were major providers and users of credit, and were also relatively free from the banking regulations of the 1930s.¶ In order to survive, commercial banks were successfully pushing for deregulation that would allow them to extend their business into insurance, securities brokerage, and other lines that they had been excluded from by 1930s legislation. Among the first big breaks was the acquisition of Travelers Insurance by CitiBank.¶ Leverage—the borrowing of money to finance activity—was in vogue. The capitalm cushion at brokerage companies and shadow banks was slim at best, and it was low at commercial banks as well. In addition, new leverage-creating financial instruments like credit default swaps and other derivatives were abundant and hitherto unrecognized sources of financial risk. So risk was increasing while equity was decreasing.¶ The watchword of the new times was Innovation, which included development of exotic and inscrutable financial instruments that would channel credit in new ways. Among these was the development of the Collateralized Mortgage Obligation (CMO) that would allow investors to create virtually risk-free investments in mortgages, or so it was thought. These innovations led to an increase in systemic risk as loans were made to subprime borrowers who couldn't normally get them under traditional credit standards.¶ In contrast to earlier episodes, the financing of many shadow banks was out of whack. Institutions were holding portfolios of long-term securities of dubious value while financing them with short term liabilities like commercial paper. This set the system up for a credit freeze if the long-term assets fell in value, much like the Penn Central crisis of the 1970s but with much greater ramifications. This was the basis of the first major shadow bank failure at Bear Stearns.¶ The business of lending had become Big Politics as government-sponsored credit agencies sprang up and grew large, leading politicians to clamor for new (lower) credit standards for "needy" borrowers. This acronymic politically-motivated industry included FNMA (the Federal National Mortgage Association ("Fannie Mae"), GNMA (the Government National Mortgage Association ("Ginnie Mae"), FHLMC (the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, "Freddie Mac"), the SLMC (Student Loan Marketing Corporation, "Sallie Mae"), and the SBA (Small Business Administration). These became vehicles for socially active lending to favored groups, groups that might not merit credit through normal channels.Still, in my view, the underlying problem was not just the legacy of 1930s financial regulations, the financial innovation, and the proliferation of social lending. Underneath it all was an underlying sense of security derived from ignorance about the effectiveness of regulation and about the new financial innovations. In reality, financial innovation always outstrips financial regulations: regulations are constructed in a rear view mirror by folks who are slow to adapt to new things (we call them Members of Congress or Bureaucrats), and they are enforced by folks with no experience at identifying new sources of risk.In contrast, financial innovations are constructed by quick-witted entrepreneurial minds who see the pitfalls in existing regulations, want to do an end run, and don't intend to hang around until the party is over. There isn't a snowball's chance in Hell that the former will be ahead of the latter! It's not a message people want to hear, but regulation is not, and never will be, the effective instrument that we imagine—it might be necessary and inevitable, if just for its veneer of safety, but it won't ever prevent debacles.Financial Psychology in the New Economy of the 2000sThe particular financial innovations that undid the economy of Main Street in 2008 were CMOs, particularly those containing "subprime" mortgages. These were individual mortgage loans to borrowers on the financial edge that had been packaged together in a bundle and sold to investors. Similar packages were constructed for business loans (Collateralized Loan Obligations, or CLOs), corporate debt (Collateralized Debt Obligations, CDOs), student loans, and so on.Each CMO was advertised as "low risk" because, it was thought, the probability of default on any one mortgage in a CMO was independent of the default probabilities of the others—Jane Roe's default on her mortgage would not be related to John Doe's default on his mortgage; bad default experience in the South had no implications for experience in the West. This principle was derived from simple statistics: aggregating <i>independent</i> risks reduces overall risk; it's the principle underlying all insurance contracts. But while risks might be uncorrelated under normal conditions, people forgot that <i>in a financial crisis all values are highly correlated</i>—<i>everything</i> goes down in value. People also forgot a lesson from the Great Depression: houses<i>can</i> go down in value.This aggregation of risks was not alone in bringing down the financial system. There had to be a cataclysmic flaw in the financial system to trigger the disaster. That flaw was in the psychology of risk management, in particular, it was in the fundamental problem of <i>moral hazard</i>, a problem well known to insurance companies.The moral hazard problem is simple: if I am insured against my house burning down, I will invest less in preventing fires by buying alarm systems, installing sprinkler systems, cleaning up debris, and so on. So the <i>act</i> of insurance creates the <i>fact</i> of increased risk. Insurance companies know this and monitor the properties they insure to confirm compliance. But few saw that the appearance of insurance through financial innovations like credit default swaps led to an increase in financial risk-takingBuilding a CMO—and a DisasterCreating a CMO is a complex process allowing many parties to skew the product in their own interests. Consider the innovation of the CMO (Collateralized Mortgage Obligation), the security package at the heart of the debacle. In order to sell a CMO you have to put together a package of mortgages and do a number of steps to make the CMO appealing to investors. First, you need an assessment of the quality and value of each mortgaged property—the condition of the property, its location, and so on; you get this from a <i>real estate assessor</i>, often just a realtor.Second, you have to decide how to select which among the many available mortgages to put into a specific CMO—should they be on properties in the same location, the same condition, and so on? For this you rely on the services of a CMO bundler, typically a financial agent who understand the product <i>and</i> who works in his client's interests. Here we find instances of bundlers who knew how bad some of the mortgages were and put them into a bundle; those folks knew that they were constructing something that could well collapse and they could make money by selling the product short. That's not the right incentive system to create.Third, having put the CMO together, selling it to financial agents with fiduciary obligations require some confirmation of safety. This required rating by a rating agency like Moody's or Standard and Poor. This means that the rating agency should be able to determine just how the package (not just the individual securities) will behave under different economic scenarios. Those rating agencies would get paid by the CMO creators to put a stamp of approval on them. But the rating agencies had no clue how to evaluate the new instruments, a problem that didn't prevent them from liberally dispensing AAA ratings.What Went Wrong?So what went wrong? Well, everything! The CMOs were built on a flawed premise that the values of the individual properties were uncorrelated. They were not! People forgot that in a financial crisis all values are highly correlated—in a collapse everything goes down in value. Second, the real estate assessors failed in their jobs—all to often the mortgaged properties didn't exist, or were at the wrong locations, or were in much worse condition than stated. Third, the CMO bundlers often had no clue how to put the packages together to create lower risk; even worse, in one highly publicized case the bundler also sold the package he created for a major investment short, thus making a lot of money when the collapse came; it seems clear that he had put a bundle of dogs together knowing that it would go down in value! Fourth, the rating agencies failed dismally because they had absolutely no idea how the individual properties in a CMO were correlated; they simply bought into the flawed assumption of independence of risks and assigned AAA-ratings to highly risky packages.OK, everybody screwed up in this debacle—sometimes it was incompetence, sometimes it was plain greed. Was there some common problem that underlay the whole thing? The answer is, I think, yes! Way deep down underneath the mess was a kick the can down the road mentality. When we observe something is wrong, we can address it before the tsunami hits, or we can simply move that something on to someone else and give them the risk; the latter protects you at the risk of systemic instability. This psychological problem was inherent in the investment banking system of 2008. Banks no longer held the securities they originated—they sold them to someone else; realtors who assessed property had no skin in the game, nor did bundlers, or the salesmen who sold the CMOs, or the rating agencies. Each party played a temporary role in the movement of a CMO to its ultimate holders. Everyone could kick the can down the road, but the can itself never disappeared!Implications for Financial Regulation and Future CollapseSo what do you do about this? Well, the lesson of the Great Depression should be taken to heart. The will be new financial regulations imposed, they will be designed to address the problems of 2008, over time the financial system will adapt and systemic risks will increase as a new financial world arises, and when the generation of 2008 is gone—and with it the social memory of that debacle has faded away—those new risks will create another debacle which will come as a great surprise.New regulation is the only soporific we have, so it must be done to demonstrate that we are on top of the situation. There is no choice. But we are like the little Dutch boy putting our finger in the dike. Our "finger" of new regulation is, of course, not really effective; but it appears to be effective because nothing bad happens for a very long time. So we develop confidence in it. Then at some future date we remove our finger from the dike—and it collapses. We conclude that our finger of regulation was really holding the water back while, in reality, it was held back by the now-gone social memory that raised red flags when risk levels increased. So when the dike breaks, we adopt new regulations to construct a new and stronger (we think) financial system. But eventually it will fail.When? After most of us are gone, It took 75 years the last time.

What is the best way to generate real estate investing leads?

1. Advertise in a newsletter2. Place a classified ad or flyer in your daily newspaper.Place weekly/monthly ads in thePenny saver or other local weekly city paper.3. Absentee Home Ownershomeowner’s association, church bulletin, school newsletter, chamber ofcommerce, specialized industry.4. Place an ad in the localYellow Pages (print or online) - they even have targeted books just for certaincities.5. Place an ad in onlineclassifieds - Craigslist, Merchant Circle, EBay, etc.6. Advertise a website usingfree search engine optimization (SEO), backlinks, etc.7. Advertise a website usingpay-per-click and ad words – Google, Yahoo, Bing, etc.8. Advertise using online paidads on various websites and mobile apps.9. Create a real estate blogsite.10. Search the MLS for junkerproperties.11. Search the MLS for recentlyexpired listings.12. Search the MLS for recentlywithdrawn listings.13. Search the MLS for oldstale listings - listed for 90 days or more.14. Search the MLS for REOs andother foreclosures.15. Search the MLS for specifickey words – “foreclosure, probate, fixer upper, etc.”16. Hire a Realtor to help youfind a great deal or one not yet in the MLS.17. Bandit signs (little cheaposigns by the side of the road or nailed to a phone pole) – signs may be illegalin some jurisdictions so check before putting them out.18. Drive neighborhoods lookingfor For Sale by Owners / FSBO's19. Call for sale by owner adsin newspapers, Craigslist, other classifieds. (Watch the Do Not CallList.)20. Network on sites likeFacebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn with people looking to sell.21. Contact landlords who areevicting a tenant.22. Contact landlords withproperties for rent.23. Contact multi-familyproperty owners - there are lots of tired landlords.24. Contact commercial propertyowners - there are lots of people looking to sell or close their business ifthey got the right offer.25. Pre-foreclosure and lispendens lists.26. Foreclosure auctions.27. Sherriff sale auctions.28. HUD home auctions.29. Tax deed auctions30. EBay and online auctions.31. Private auctions conductedby auctioneers – online, on-site, or in a hotel ballroom.32. Contact probate ownedproperty owners.33. Contact people holding estatesales to see if the house is also for sale.34. Contact divorce forced sales.35. Contact people holding garagesales and yard sales to see if the house is also for sale.36. Properties with outstandingbuilding, health code, or code enforcement violations.37. Properties with insurance claims– fire, storm, sinkhole, earthquake, etc.38. Contact out of state owners andabsentee landlords.39. Networking with professionalpeople - attorneys, accountants, financial planners, surveyors, etc.40. Network with service providers -lawnmower service, pool service, contractors, roofers, handyman, etc.41. Network with your sphere ofinfluence - hand out your business cards to everyone you know.42. Join a local networkinggroup - chamber of commerce, Kiwanis club, garden club.43. Network at your local realestate investment or landlord association.44. Post ads with large employers,military bases, hospitals, relocation companies.45. Bird dogs that scout for dealsand bring them to you. (Paying a bird dog fee to unlicensed people may be illegalin some states, so make sure to obey the law).46. Buy from a property wholesaler.47. Magnetic car sign.48. Bus stop benches.49. Shopping cart ads.50. Billboards and other outdooradvertising.51. Ads at venues – bowling alleys,movie theaters, sports stadiums, baseball fields.52. Ads on taxi cabs, buses, andother vehicles – mobile billboards.53. Clothing – T-shirts, baseballhats, and book bags with your ad on them.54. Accessories to hand out -magnetic calendars, ball point pens, drink holders with your ad on them.55. Sponsor a sports team andadvertise on their uniforms.56. Canvassing a neighborhood,talk to neighbors, door hangers/fliers57. Radio ads and paidprogramming shows.58. Television ads.59. Direct mail and postcards – expiredlistings, pre-foreclosure, probate, delinquent taxes, liens, absentee owners.60. Private money lenders or peopleholding seller financing that might consider selling their mortgage at adiscount in lieu of avoiding foreclosure.61. People who have done a mortgagemodification or had a foreclosure dismissed within the recent past - odds arethey are still struggling.62. Property owners in bankruptcy.63. Property owners with tax liens,judgments, or construction liens recorded against them.64. Contact the person that owns thejudgment or construction lien that might sell at a discount instead of tryingto foreclose.65. Property owners with HOA or condoliens recorded against them.66. Drive neighborhoods looking forvacant and abandoned homes.67. Properties with title problems.68. Properties on state/countygovernment lands available for sale list.69. Properties that can be combinedwith others to make the whole parcel more valuable.70. Properties that can have thezoning or land use changed to make the parcel more valuable.71. Builders with excess inventory ofhomes for sale.72. Government agencies - FDIC, SBA,USDA, VA, RICO, U.S. Customs, other federal, state, county, and city - all havesurplus, foreclosed, and seized properties.73. Properties withenvironmental contamination or brownfields.74. Condominium conversionswith multitudes of unsold units.75. Developers with unsoldempty lots and other inventory.76. IRS Auctions.77. Appraisers and Realtors®doing price opinions (BPOs) on foreclosures.78. Houses with overgrown yardsand high grass.79. Houses with blue tarps onthe roof.80. Houses with boarded updoors and windows.81. Contact community banks andcredit unions regarding their REO inventory.82. Contact finance companiesregarding their delinquent loans and REO inventory.83. Contact bail bondsmanregarding their delinquent loans and REO inventory.84. Network with credit repaircompanies to assist their customers that must sell.85. Farm specific neighborhoodsand become the resident expert.86. Funeral homes andobituaries.87. Network with real estateservicers – title companies, insurance agents, mortgage brokers and lenders –everybody knows someone in distress.88. Old people in big houses –empty nesters.89. Mobile home parks thatallow rental units – get to know the park manager.90. Network with homeinspectors.91. Network with termite (WDO)and pest control companies.92. Network with movingcompanies.93. Local housing authoritywith a list of Section 8 landlords.94. Door hanger flyers.95. Pizza boxes.96. Mail carrier and otherdelivery people. They know the empty houses in the area.97. Free & clear houses.They might sell with seller financing.98. Move-up buyers.People that need to sell and get a bigger house but feel stuck.99. Military transferees.100. Properties that can besubdivided or re-developed.101.Vacant or Abandon properties102. Tired Landlords103. List of eviction court attendants104.Landlords who own more than one property with back taxes105.Property Owners whose assessment went up106.properties that were owned by investors that went out of business107.Tax delinquent home owners108. Place we buy houses flyers/ business cards at unemployment offices109. Keep brainstorming for new ideas... be creative.Hope that gets you started !!!

How can a rookie real estate wholesaler find properties?

Someone else asked this question and below was the response.... I copied and paste my previous answer1. Advertise in a newsletter2. Place a classified ad or flyer in your daily newspaper.Place weekly/monthly ads in thePenny saver or other local weekly city paper.3. Absentee Home Ownershomeowner’s association, church bulletin, school newsletter, chamber ofcommerce, specialized industry.4. Place an ad in the localYellow Pages (print or online) - they even have targeted books just for certaincities.5. Place an ad in onlineclassifieds - Craigslist, Merchant Circle, EBay, etc.6. Advertise a website usingfree search engine optimization (SEO), backlinks, etc.7. Advertise a website usingpay-per-click and ad words – Google, Yahoo, Bing, etc.8. Advertise using online paidads on various websites and mobile apps.9. Create a real estate blogsite.10. Search the MLS for junkerproperties.11. Search the MLS for recentlyexpired listings.12. Search the MLS for recentlywithdrawn listings.13. Search the MLS for oldstale listings - listed for 90 days or more.14. Search the MLS for REOs andother foreclosures.15. Search the MLS for specifickey words – “foreclosure, probate, fixer upper, etc.”16. Hire a Realtor to help youfind a great deal or one not yet in the MLS.17. Bandit signs (little cheaposigns by the side of the road or nailed to a phone pole) – signs may be illegalin some jurisdictions so check before putting them out.18. Drive neighborhoods lookingfor For Sale by Owners / FSBO's19. Call for sale by owner adsin newspapers, Craigslist, other classifieds. (Watch the Do Not CallList.)20. Network on sites likeFacebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn with people looking to sell.21. Contact landlords who areevicting a tenant.22. Contact landlords withproperties for rent.23. Contact multi-familyproperty owners - there are lots of tired landlords.24. Contact commercial propertyowners - there are lots of people looking to sell or close their business ifthey got the right offer.25. Pre-foreclosure and lispendens lists.26. Foreclosure auctions.27. Sherriff sale auctions.28. HUD home auctions.29. Tax deed auctions30. EBay and online auctions.31. Private auctions conductedby auctioneers – online, on-site, or in a hotel ballroom.32. Contact probate ownedproperty owners.33. Contact people holding estatesales to see if the house is also for sale.34. Contact divorce forced sales.35. Contact people holding garagesales and yard sales to see if the house is also for sale.36. Properties with outstandingbuilding, health code, or code enforcement violations.37. Properties with insurance claims– fire, storm, sinkhole, earthquake, etc.38. Contact out of state owners andabsentee landlords.39. Networking with professionalpeople - attorneys, accountants, financial planners, surveyors, etc.40. Network with service providers -lawnmower service, pool service, contractors, roofers, handyman, etc.41. Network with your sphere ofinfluence - hand out your business cards to everyone you know.42. Join a local networkinggroup - chamber of commerce, Kiwanis club, garden club.43. Network at your local realestate investment or landlord association.44. Post ads with large employers,military bases, hospitals, relocation companies.45. Bird dogs that scout for dealsand bring them to you. (Paying a bird dog fee to unlicensed people may be illegalin some states, so make sure to obey the law).46. Buy from a property wholesaler.47. Magnetic car sign.48. Bus stop benches.49. Shopping cart ads.50. Billboards and other outdooradvertising.51. Ads at venues – bowling alleys,movie theaters, sports stadiums, baseball fields.52. Ads on taxi cabs, buses, andother vehicles – mobile billboards.53. Clothing – T-shirts, baseballhats, and book bags with your ad on them.54. Accessories to hand out -magnetic calendars, ball point pens, drink holders with your ad on them.55. Sponsor a sports team andadvertise on their uniforms.56. Canvassing a neighborhood,talk to neighbors, door hangers/fliers57. Radio ads and paidprogramming shows.58. Television ads.59. Direct mail and postcards – expiredlistings, pre-foreclosure, probate, delinquent taxes, liens, absentee owners.60. Private money lenders or peopleholding seller financing that might consider selling their mortgage at adiscount in lieu of avoiding foreclosure.61. People who have done a mortgagemodification or had a foreclosure dismissed within the recent past - odds arethey are still struggling.62. Property owners in bankruptcy.63. Property owners with tax liens,judgments, or construction liens recorded against them.64. Contact the person that owns thejudgment or construction lien that might sell at a discount instead of tryingto foreclose.65. Property owners with HOA or condoliens recorded against them.66. Drive neighborhoods looking forvacant and abandoned homes.67. Properties with title problems.68. Properties on state/countygovernment lands available for sale list.69. Properties that can be combinedwith others to make the whole parcel more valuable.70. Properties that can have thezoning or land use changed to make the parcel more valuable.71. Builders with excess inventory ofhomes for sale.72. Government agencies - FDIC, SBA,USDA, VA, RICO, U.S. Customs, other federal, state, county, and city - all havesurplus, foreclosed, and seized properties.73. Properties withenvironmental contamination or brownfields.74. Condominium conversionswith multitudes of unsold units.75. Developers with unsoldempty lots and other inventory.76. IRS Auctions.77. Appraisers and Realtors®doing price opinions (BPOs) on foreclosures.78. Houses with overgrown yardsand high grass.79. Houses with blue tarps onthe roof.80. Houses with boarded updoors and windows.81. Contact community banks andcredit unions regarding their REO inventory.82. Contact finance companiesregarding their delinquent loans and REO inventory.83. Contact bail bondsmanregarding their delinquent loans and REO inventory.84. Network with credit repaircompanies to assist their customers that must sell.85. Farm specific neighborhoodsand become the resident expert.86. Funeral homes andobituaries.87. Network with real estateservicers – title companies, insurance agents, mortgage brokers and lenders –everybody knows someone in distress.88. Old people in big houses –empty nesters.89. Mobile home parks thatallow rental units – get to know the park manager.90. Network with homeinspectors.91. Network with termite (WDO)and pest control companies.92. Network with movingcompanies.93. Local housing authoritywith a list of Section 8 landlords.94. Door hanger flyers.95. Pizza boxes.96. Mail carrier and otherdelivery people. They know the empty houses in the area.97. Free & clear houses.They might sell with seller financing.98. Move-up buyers.People that need to sell and get a bigger house but feel stuck.99. Military transferees.100. Properties that can besubdivided or re-developed.101.Vacant or Abandon properties102. Tired Landlords103. List of eviction court attendants104.Landlords who own more than one property with back taxes105.Property Owners whose assessment went up106.properties that were owned by investors that went out of business107.Tax delinquent home owners108. Place we buy houses flyers/ business cards at unemployment offices109. Keep brainstorming for new ideas... be creative.Hope that gets you started !!!

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