Schedule Of Events Central Time Zone Thursday February 19: Fill & Download for Free

No transition as there has been no data confirming global warming in the past 200 years.There is no Global Warming. One (1) degree total rise in temperature spread out over 140 years does not Global Warming make... that translated to less than 0.007 degrees per year which is NOTHING !The earth continues with declining temperatures of the interglacial ice age that hit us 2.4 million years ago. Natural variability is the only way to understand the earths seesawing temperatures. Distorting the scientific meaning of climate change by using too short a timeline (not even 30 years) is a major source of error and confusion.Climate change occurs when changes in Earth's climate system result in new weather patterns that last for at least a few decades, and maybe for millions of years. WikipediaWhen the media and alarmists jump on the claim that 2016 was the hottest year they are wrong as the rise is so small as to be within the range of statistical error. More important one year of weather is irrelevant to determining climate change or global warming, where even centuries may be to short. Remember this caution, ‘When you look out a window, the weather you see is not climate.’Essex and McKintrickThe evidence from available data does not show new weather patterns that lasted long enough to register as either global warming or global cooling as a matter of climate change in the past 100 years. The reason is too much variation over too short time intervals. We have been fooled by the chaotic, nonlinear randomness of the weather.Over the past 400,000 years there have been 4 interglacial periods all warmer than today making nonsense of the radical claim that the climate changed with the dawn of industrialization based only on the evidence of a couple decades of warming data. As the sun ages the temperature shows a long term decline with little relief except for short decadal seesaw warming. Below are series of 8 temperature graphs starting at 500 millions past and ending as the last 19 years. The series shows a declining temperature trend line that is not interrupted by long term global warming.Temperature decline over past 500 million yearsTemperature decline over the past 65 million years[Note when spread over a long horizon you see the temperature trend without the noise of natural variation seesawing hot or cold over a few decades.]Temperature decline over past 400,000 years.Temperature decline over past 7000 yearsTemperature decline over past 3000 yearsTemperature decline over past 2000 yearsUS temperature decline over past 100 years.Global temperature pause over past 19 yearsYes, there was a weather scare in the seventies as temperatures plunged and Arctic Ice expanded. The cooling concern is recorded in major media including the NY Times. Pretending it wasn’t colder or no one cared is just nonsense and suggests mendacity is in charge.What is the evidence of public concern about the climate in 1970?TimesMachine: Saturday July 18, 1970The evidence of concern of another ice age is unequivocal in this major NY Times article July 18, 1970. The climate was getting colder ( I remember anecdotally needing tire chains to drive to Whistler and cross country skiing in the village in 1970) with the thickening of the Arctic. At the highest level in the US and Russia “LARGE SCALE INVESTIGATIONS WERE MOUNTED” because Arctic sea ice has “recently become ominously thicker and whether the extent of ice cover contributes to the onset of ice ages.” The substance of this article is repeated elsewhere confirming that the today’s alarmists are the deniers of historical truth when it suits their purposes.Thursday, February 28, 20131970s Global Cooling Alarmism"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." – George SantayanaTime Magazine Big Freeze cover in 1977Here is the text from the Times magazine story -Still, it is the brutal and unrelenting cold — the Big Freeze — that has transformed the inevitable grousing about the weather into personal agony and national hardship.It was like living in the Arctic—an ominous reminder of how modern man, so proud of his technological mastery of his environment, remains so vulnerable to its whims. Indeed, his very reliance on energy-consuming machines, vehicles and conveniences contributed last week to widespread suffering. To meet soaring energy demands for heating, electrical utilities ordered temporary blackouts in some communities and reduced voltage in others.A genuine crisis developed in the natural-gas industry. Suppliers put into effect emergency plans, cutting all deliveries to thousands of industrial users. Company officials pleaded for school closings, shortened business hours, and thermostats to be turned down to teeth-chattering levels in private homes.FACT CHECK: Is This Time Magazine Cover About “Global Cooling”?Snopes said the story is false because the text was about the weather getting much colder not mentioning global cooling. This seems a distinction without a difference and fits the pattern where the alarmist media ignore the relevance of evidence of colder weather but jump all over warmer weather and claim it is global warming.The point is governments and people were concerned about how cold the weather was in the 70s and this is confirmed by temperature graphs.The big dip in US temperatures is evidence against the Co2 scare."The scientists and computers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration were confidently predicting that the frigid weather would continue. The chilling pronouncement of NOAA's senior climatologist: 'The forecast is for no change.' "- Time Magazine, 1977During the 1970s the media promoted global cooling alarmism with dire threats of a new ice age. Extreme weather events were hyped as signs of the coming apocalypse and man-made pollution was blamed as the cause. Environmental extremists called for everything from outlawing the internal combustion engine to communist style population controls.e.g. "Pollution Prospect A Chilling One" (The Argus-Press, January 26, 1970)"We will be forced to sacrifice democracy by the laws that will protect us from further pollution." - Dr. Arnold Reitze, 1970The Argus-Press, January 26, 1970The variability of the weather demolishes the claim of correlation between Co2 and temperature.Any graphs showing correlation when parsed show that Co2 lags temperature which makes sense.The UN and alarmist scientists put the state of winter weather in play. They predicted moderate winters without snow would be the key evidence validating their hypothesis denying Mother Nature controls the climate.Snowfall will become “A very rare and exciting event…Children just aren’t going to know what snow is.”Dr David Viner – Senior scientist, climatic research unit (CRU)The prediction that “children just aren’t going to know what snow is” was made by Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia, in the year 2000.Early snowfall stokes Colorado skiers, clouds climate debateClimate activists claimed for years that 'snow was 'a thing of the past ... but snow has not cooperated'A skier makes a turn in fresh snow on Breckenridge Ski Resort’s opening day Wednesday, Nov. 7, 2018, in Breckenridge, Colo. The resort opened early after receiving more than 5 feet of snow already this season. (Hugh Carey/Summit Daily News ... more >By Valerie Richardson - The Washington Times - Wednesday, November 14, 2018DENVER — A heavy autumn snowfall has ski resorts across Colorado holding some of their earliest opening days in a decade or more, stoking skiers and fueling another snowball fight over climate change.Vail Mountain and Beaver Creek plan to open this week, shaving several days off their anticipated starts to the ski season and marking the first time that both resorts have launched ahead of time in 10 years, said Vail chief operating officer Doug Lovell.The resorts credited a “combination of some of the best early-November snowmaking conditions and more than four feet of natural snowfall last week.”Ski Cooper plans to open Nov. 23, 10 days earlier than scheduled, while Monarch Mountain in Salida announced Monday that it would invite skiers and snowboarders Friday, its earliest first-day-of-the-ski-season since 1996, after receiving a hefty 34 inches of powder.“We couldn’t be more thrilled for an early opening this year,” said Randy Stroud, general manager of Monarch Mountain, in a Monday press release. “We did our snow dances and Mother Nature delivered.”So much, then, for “settled science” of climate change. Notice, also, how the term “extreme” weather is routinely used now to explain away - if you’ll pardon the expression - the inconvenient truth that winters are horrible.The point is not that winter weather is climate change - of course not - the point is winter weather is evidence either for or against the unusual claims of the United Nations that humans control the climate now because of fossil fuels and a catastrophe will hit us by the year 2000.In fact there is truly a ton of evidence in leading scientific papers about INCREASING SNOWFALL ALBEDO as weather and why it matters to temperature and climate. YES, as a matter of science record colder winters with increasing massive snowfall matter.Observed weather increasing snowfall and record cold winters contradicts the repeated prediction by the UN and other alarmists that winters would ‘moderate’ without snow.ALBEDO of massive snowfall weather is shown by peer reviewed papers to cause climate change even an ice age and worse.Winter snow is different than other weather as to whether there is dangerous global warming because the cooling effect of a continuing snow albedo would halt any runaway catastrophic warming . This is the science.This cartoon debunks the very heart of the global warming scare the end of snow and winter central to the radical hypothesis ignoring the sun putting humans in the drivers seat of the climate.The UN IPCC and other alarmists knew that if winter did not moderate as they predicted there could be no climate crisis or catastrophe that would create a runaway warming.Snowfall will become “A very rare and exciting event…Children just aren’t going to know what snow is.”Dr David Viner – Senior scientist, climatic research unit (CRU)2007 : Die Zeit…“First the snow disappears, and then winter.”2014 : the global warming theory-obsessed New York Times touted “The End of Snow?”…“The truth is, it is too late for all of that. Greening the ski industry is commendable, but it isn’t nearly enough. Nothing besides a national policy shift on how we create and consume energy will keep our mountains white in the winter — and slow global warming to a safe level.VERY WRONGCALIFORNIA HAS HAD SO MUCH SNOW LATELY IT BURIES CARS.SKI RESORTS ARE BURIES IN SNOW AND THIS IS GREAT FOR BUSINESS.Will The Snowiest Decade Continue? « CBS Boston“Interestingly, some scientists have stated that increasing snow is consistent with climate change because warmer air holds more moisture, more water vapor and this can result in more storms with heavy precipitation. The trick, of course, is having sufficient cold air to produce that snow. But note that 93% of the years with more than 60″ of snow in Boston were colder than average years. The reality is cooling, not warming, increases snowfall.”THE problem with lying or perpetuating a scam is that you have to be aware of the spin you’ve spun to get you there.This view OF THE END OF SNOW was not just idle talk it was the whole business in the minds of alarmists like the UN, David Viner and big media like Die Zeit in Germany. If the Albedo snow effect did not end then evidence of runaway warming would end and the UN and others would lose the political leverage necessary for their real agenda ending capitalism and establishing One World Government under the UN.THE motives of the UN and its affiliates are no different from those of the radical eco-zealots of the 1970’s. They despise capitalism, development, growth and freedom, with the misguided fear of overpopulation, a principle driver.THEIR solution is to use the emotive issue of ‘Climate Change’ to pursue a radical transformation in cultural, economic and political structures across the globe through their various unelected, taxpayer funded global(ist) bodies…UNFCCCUN Climate Chief Says Communism Is Best To Fight Global Warming | Climatism“This is the first time in the history of mankind that we are setting ourselves the task of intentionally, within a defined period of time, to change the economic development model that has been reigning for at least 150 years since the Industrial Revolution.” – Christiana Figueres, fmr executive secretary of the UN’s Framework on Climate Change (Feb 2015, Brussels)FIGUERES even went so far as to affirm that “Communism is the best model to fight global warming.“IN other words, the real agenda is concentrated political authority. Global warming is the hook.GLOBAL Warming theory has long abandoned any connection it has with actual science. It is has become as ideology. A new religion. Australia’s former Prime Minister Tony Abbott likening it to, “socialism masquerading as environmentalism“.SEE : The UN’s Real Agenda Is A New World Order Under Its Control | ClimatismNOAA Predicted an ice free summer Arctic 2085.Here is a key graph by NOAA, a government agency, how the future global warming should impact the Arctic. Arctic melting buying the false hype a model simulation showing the Arctic future according to the alarmists. First in 1885 showing Aug, Sept and Oct average ice concentration and concluding in 2085 with NO SNOW left after the expected summer melt. WRONG WRONG WRONG. This is amazingly bad science for a government agency. It is the most relevant evidence of how the weather mattered if it was SNOW to alarmism.It gets worse when the actual climate fails to cooperate with the radical alarmism denying nature and climate variability. For example, the warming historically of the Medieval Warm period rebutted the claim that current warming is unprecedented. The Orwellian solution from junior scientist Michael Mann is get rid of history.James Hansen was a leading alarmist scientist who regularly changed historical temperature data to make current data warmer than it was.The cheating and fudging of the truth has been aimed in one direction every-time - to hide the fact the warming is not happening. This motive is understandable when the goal is to scare the public into thinking the earth is burning up with end of winters and snow.BUT MOTHER NATURE REFUSED TO GO ALONG WITH THE HOAX.PHOTOS OF THE ARCTIC 1979, 2012 AND 2017 COMPARED TO 79 LEVELS.Largest Increase In November 2018 Sea Ice Volume On RecordPosted on December 13, 2018 by tonyhellerThe increase in Arctic sea ice volume during November was the largest on record.Understanding the relevance of the snow albedo is keyWith the longer view it is possible we have not recovered from the Little Ice Age that continues apace. We say there was a PAUSE in warming but another view is there was a PAUSE in cooling and the record colder winter temperatures recently mean we continue in the grip of the Little Ice Age.Brutal Arctic Blast in Chicago breaking all winter records January, 2019.The reason any shorter view of climate change is a mistake is the fact the chaotic nonlinear seesawing of weather will fool you in the short term with the randomness of a chaotic non-linear complex system. The science will suffer error from the fact that short term weather trends and short term changes of the earth’s is not meaningful.Obama made himself look very foolish when he called the 3 years of severe drought starting in 2015 in California climate change or global warming. He was very wrong as were many scientists who started predicting 200 more years of drought.The cracked-dry bed of the Almaden Reservoir near San Jose shows the strain of California's megadrought. The governor has declared a drought "state of emergency."PHOTOGRAPH BY MARCIO JOSE SANCHEZ, APCould California's Drought Last 200 Years?Clues from the past suggest the ocean's temperature may be a driver.BY THOMAS M. KOSTIGEN, FOR NATIONAL GEOGRAPHICPUBLISHEDFEBRUARY 13, 2014Two years into California's drought, Donald Galleano's grapevines are scorched shrubs, their charcoal-colored stems and gnarled roots displaying not a lick of life. "I've never seen anything like this," says Galleano, 61, the third-generation owner of a 300-acre vineyard in Mira Loma, California, that bears his name. "It's so dry ... There's been no measurable amount of rain."California is experiencing its worst drought since record-keeping began in the mid 19th century, and scientists say this may be just the beginning. B. Lynn Ingram, a paleoclimatologist at the University of California at Berkeley, thinks that California needs to brace itself for a megadrought—one that could last for 200 years or more.Could California's Drought Last 200 Years?NO , the National Geographic story above fooled by randomness and misuse of climate history and climate change.A nearly full Nicasio Reservoir on March 14 in Nicasio, Calif. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)By Mike BranomMarch 19 at 11:12 AMThe past week has been lovely for enjoying California’s outdoor splendor, with warm temperatures and clear, blue skies ushering in a welcome change from such a wet, dreary winter. Bring on spring!In the real physics of thermodynamics, the measurable thermodynamic properties of common atmospheric gases predict little if any influence on temperature by carbon dioxide concentration and this prediction is confirmed by the inconsistency of temperature and carbon dioxide concentrations in the geological record. Moreover, when the backradiation "Greenhouse Effect" hypothesis of Arrhenius is put to a real, physical, material test, such as the Wood Experiment, there is no sign of it because the "Greenhouse Effect" simply does not exist. This is why the "Greenhouse Effect" is excluded from modern physics textbooks and why Arrhenius' theory of ice ages was so politely forgotten. It is exclusively the "Greenhouse Effect" due to carbon dioxide produced by industry that is used to underpin the claim that humans are changing the climate and causing global warming. However, without the "Greenhouse Effect", how can anyone honestly describe global warming as "anthropogenic"?Bibliography see websiteCycle 25 to be below average, similar to Solar Cycle 24April 5, 2019 – Scientists charged with predicting the Sun’s activity for the next 11-year solar cycle say that it’s likely to be weak, much like the current one. The current solar cycle, Cycle 24, is declining and predicted to reach solar minimum – the period when the Sun is least active – late in 2019 or 2020.Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel experts said Solar Cycle 25 may have a slow start, but is anticipated to peak with solar maximum occurring between 2023 and 2026, and a sunspot range of 95 to 130. This is well below the average number of sunspots, which typically ranges from 140 to 220 sunspots per solar cycle.Graph via Twitter fromNOAA’s Space Weather WorkshopThe panel has high confidence that the coming cycle should break the trend of weakening solar activity seen over the past four cycles.“We expect Solar Cycle 25 will be very similar to Cycle 24: another fairly weak cycle, preceded by a long, deep minimum,” said panel co-chair Lisa Upton, Ph.D., solar physicist with Space Systems Research Corp. “The expectation that Cycle 25 will be comparable in size to Cycle 24 means that the steady decline in solar cycle amplitude, seen from cycles 21-24, has come to an end and that there is no indication that we are currently approaching a Maunder-type minimum in solar activity.”[My highlighted text]The solar cycle prediction gives a rough idea of the frequency of space weather storms of all types, from radio blackouts to geomagnetic storms and solar radiation storms. It is used by many industries to gauge the potential impact of space weather in the coming years. Space weather can affect power grids, critical military, airline, and shipping communications, satellites and Global Positioning System (GPS) signals, and can even threaten astronauts by exposure to harmful radiation doses.How Physics Demolishes the 'Greenhouse Effect'".Minute amounts of Co2 cannot provide a blanket cover like the panels of a real greenhouse. Back radiation is false. The greenhouse metaphor is fake and a better metaphor is a pinch of salt.Greenhouse panels are not covered in the fake GHG metaphor therefore they will have no effect on the climate.A pinch of salt works with chemistry to make all food taste better likewise Co2 has a vital chemical reaction in photosynthesis converting radiant energy to chemical. Neither a pinch of salt of a minuscule amount of human Co2 emission has any heat effecting properties.More recent physics papers also demolish the Greenhouse Effect on global warming, including the work of Douglas Cotton published on Quora.Scrutinizing the atmospheric greenhouse effect and its climatic impactFull-Text HTMLDOI: 10.4236/ns.2011.312124 16,038 Downloads 38,002 Views CitationsAuthor(s) Leave a commentGerhard Kramm, Ralph DlugiAffiliation(s).ABSTRACTIn this paper, we scrutinize two completely different explanations of the so-called atmospheric greenhouse effect: First, the explanation of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) and the World Meteorological Organization (W?MO) quan- tifying this effect by two characteristic temperatures, secondly, the explanation of Ramanathan et al. [1] that is mainly based on an energy-flux budget for the Earth-atmosphere system. Both explanations are related to the global scale. In addition, we debate the meaning of climate, climate change, climate variability and climate variation to outline in which way the atmospheric greenhouse effect might be responsible for climate change and climate variability, respectively. In doing so, we distinguish between two different branches of climatology, namely 1) physical climatology in which the boundary conditions of the Earth-atmosphere system play the dominant role and 2) statistical climatology that is dealing with the statistical description of fortuitous weather events which had been happening in climate periods; each of them usually comprises 30 years. Based on our findings, we argue that 1) the so-called atmospheric greenhouse effect cannot be proved by the statistical description of fortuitous weather events that took place in a climate period, 2) the description by AMS and W?MO has to be discarded because of physical reasons, 3) energy-flux budgets for the Earth-atmosphere system do not provide tangible evidence that the atmospheric greenhouse effect does exist. Because of this lack of tangible evidence it is time to acknowledge that the atmospheric greenhouse effect and especially its climatic impact are based on meritless conjectures. [Emphasis added]17 New Scientific Papers Dispute CO2 Greenhouse Effect As Primary Explanation For Climate ChangeBy Kenneth Richard on 8. June 2017“[T]he absorption of incident solar-light by the atmosphere as well as its absorption capability of thermal radiation, cannot be influenced by human acts.” – Allmendinger, 2017“[G]lobal warming can be explained without recourse to the greenhouse theory. The varying solar irradiation constitutes the sole input driving the changes in the system’s energy transfers.” – Blaauw, 2017“The down-welling LW radiation is not a global driver of surface warming as hypothesized for over 100 years but a product of the near-surface air temperature controlled by solar heating and atmospheric pressure.” -Nikolov and Zeller, 2017Allmendinger, 2017The Refutation of the Climate Greenhouse Theory“The cardinal error in the usual greenhouse theory consists in the assumption that photometric or spectroscopic IR-measurements allow conclusions about the thermal behaviour of gases, i.e., of the atmosphere. They trace back to John Tyndall who developed such a photometric method already in the 19th century. However, direct thermal measurement methods have never been applied so far. Apart from this, at least twenty crucial errors are revealed which suggest abandoning the theory as a whole. In spite of its obvious deficiencies, this theory has so far been an obstacle to take promising precautions for mitigating the climate change. They would consist in a general brightening of the Earth surface, and in additional measures being related to this. However, the novel effects which were found by the author, particularly the absorption of incident solar-light by the atmosphere as well as its absorption capability of thermal radiation, cannot be influenced by human acts.”Blaauw, 2017“This paper demonstrates that global warming can be explained without recourse to the greenhouse theory. This explanation is based on a simple model of the Earth’s climate system consisting of three layers: the surface, a lower and an upper atmospheric layer. The distinction between the atmospheric layers rests on the assumption that the latent heat from the surface is set free in the lower atmospheric layer only. The varying solar irradiation constitutes the sole input driving the changes in the system’s energy transfers. All variations in the energy exchanges can be expressed in terms of the temperature variations of the layers by means of an energy transfer matrix. It turns out that the latent heat transfer as a function of the temperatures of the surface and the lower layer makes this matrix next to singular. The near singularity reveals a considerable negative feedback in the model which can be identified as the ‘Klimaversta¨rker’ presumed by Vahrenholt and Lu¨ning. By a suitable, yet realistic choice of the parameters appearing in the energy transfer matrix and of the effective heat capacities of the layers, the model reproduces the global warming: the calculated trend in the surface temperature agrees well with the observational data from AD 1750 up to AD 2000.”Nikolov and Zeller, 2017“Our analysis revealed that GMATs [global mean annual temperatures] of rocky planets with tangible atmospheres and a negligible geothermal surface heating can accurately be predicted over a broad range of conditions using only two forcing variables: top-of-the-atmosphere solar irradiance and total surface atmospheric pressure. The hereto discovered interplanetary pressure-temperature relationship is shown to be statistically robust while describing a smooth physical continuum without climatic tipping points. This continuum fully explains the recently discovered 90 K thermal effect of Earth’s atmosphere. The new model displays characteristics of an emergent macro-level thermodynamic relationship heretofore unbeknown to science that has important theoretical implications. A key entailment from the model is that the atmospheric ‘greenhouse effect’ currently viewed as a radiative phenomenon is in fact an adiabatic (pressure-induced) thermal enhancement analogous to compression heating and independent of atmospheric composition. Consequently, the global down-welling long-wave flux presently assumed to drive Earth’s surface warming appears to be a product of the air temperature set by solar heating and atmospheric pressure. In other words, the so-called ‘greenhouse back radiation’ is globally a result of the atmospheric thermal effect rather than a cause for it. … The down-welling LW radiation is not a global driver of surface warming as hypothesized for over 100 years but a product of the near-surface air temperature controlled by solar heating and atmospheric pressure … The hypothesis that a freely convective atmosphere could retain (trap) radiant heat due its opacity has remained undisputed since its introduction in the early 1800s even though it was based on a theoretical conjecture that has never been proven experimentally.”Huang et al., 2017“Various scientific studies have investigated the causal link between solar activity (SS) and the earth’s temperature (GT). [T]he corresponding CCM [Convergent Cross Mapping] results indicate increasing significance of causal effect from SS [solar activity] to GT [global temperature] since 1880 to recent years, which provide solid evidences that may contribute on explaining the escalating global tendency of warming up recent decades. … The connection between solar activity and global warming has been well established in the scientific literature. For example, see references [1–10]. … Among which, the SSA [Singular Spectrum Analysis] trend extraction is identified as the most reliable method for data preprocessing, while CCM [Convergent Cross Mapping] shows outstanding performance among all causality tests adopted. The emerging causal effects from SS [solar activity] to GT [global temperatures], especially for recent decades, are overwhelmingly proved, which reflects the better understanding of the tendency of global warming.”Viterito, 2017“The Correlation of Seismic Activity and Recent Global Warming (CSARGW) demonstrated that increasing seismic activity in the globe’s high geothermal flux areas (HGFA) is strongly correlated with global temperatures (r=0.785) from 1979-2015. The mechanism driving this correlation is amply documented and well understood by oceanographers and seismologists. Namely, increased seismic activity in the HGFA (i.e., the mid-ocean’s spreading zones) serves as a proxy indicator of higher geothermal flux in these regions. The HGFA include the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, the East Pacific Rise, the West Chile Rise, the Ridges of the Indian Ocean, and the Ridges of the Antarctic/Southern Ocean. This additional mid-ocean heating causes an acceleration of oceanic overturning and thermobaric convection, resulting in higher ocean temperatures and greater heat transport into the Arctic. This manifests itself as an anomaly known as the “Arctic Amplification,” where the Arctic warms to a much greater degree than the rest of the globe. Applying the same methodology employed in CSARGW, an updated analysis through 2016 adds new knowledge of this important relationship while strengthening support for that study’s conclusions. The correlation between HGFA seismic frequency and global temperatures moved higher with the addition of the 2016 data: the revised correlation now reads 0.814, up from 0.785 for the analysis through 2015. This yields a coefficient of determination of .662, indicating that HGFA [high geothermal flux area] seismicity accounts for roughly two-thirds of the variation in global temperatures since 1979.”Hertzberg et al., 2017“This study examines the concept of ‘greenhouse gases’ and various definitions of the phenomenon known as the ‘Atmospheric Radiative Greenhouse Effect’. The six most quoted descriptions are as follows: (a) radiation trapped between the Earth’s surface and its atmosphere; (b) the insulating blanket of the atmosphere that keeps the Earth warm; (c) back radiation from the atmosphere to the Earth’s surface; (d) Infra Red absorbing gases that hinder radiative cooling and keep the surface warmer than it would otherwise be – known as ‘otherwise radiation’; (e) differences between actual surface temperatures of the Earth (as also observed on Venus) and those based on calculations; (f) any gas that absorbs infrared radiation emitted from the Earth’s surface towards free space. It is shown that none of the above descriptions can withstand the rigours of scientific scrutiny when the fundamental laws of physics and thermodynamics are applied to them.”Song, Wang & Tang, 2016A Hiatus of the Greenhouse Effect“In the last subperiod [2003-2014], the global averaged SULR [surface upwelling longwave radiation/greenhouse effect] anomaly remains trendless (0.02 W m−2 yr−1) because Ts [global temperatures] stop rising. Meanwhile, the long-term change of the global averaged OLR anomaly (−0.01 W m−2 yr−1) is also not statistically significant. Thus, these two phenomena result in a trendless Gaa [atmospheric greenhouse effect]. … [A]remarkably decreasing Gaa trend (−0.27 W m−2 yr−1) exists over the central tropical Pacific, indicating a weakened atmospheric greenhouse effect in this area, which largely offsets the warming effect in the aforementioned surrounding regions. As a result, a trendless global averaged Gaa [atmospheric greenhouse effect] is displayed between 1991 and 2002 (Fig. 2). … Again, no significant trend of the global averaged Gaa [atmospheric greenhouse effect] is found from 2003 to 2014 (Fig. 2) because the enhanced warming effect over the western tropical Pacific is largely counteracted by the weakened warming influence on the central tropical Pacific.”Manheimer, 2016“[T]he actual data show that up to now fears of imminent climate catastrophe are not supported by data, or else involve processes occurring since long before excess CO2 in the atmosphere became a concern. Based on actual measurements and reasonable extrapolation of them, there is no reason why the responsible use of fossil fuel cannot continue to support worldwide civilisation. The argument to greatly restrict fossil fuel rests entirely on the theoretical assertion that at some point in the near future there will be a sudden and dramatic change in the very nature of the data presented here. If implemented, these would be sufficient to greatly upset the lifestyle of billions of people, and to further impoverish the already most impoverished parts of the world. … [N]othing in the past suggests that future climate will be significantly different before mid century because of rising levels of CO2.”Hertzberg and Schreuder, 2016“The authors evaluate the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) consensus that the increase of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere is of anthropogenic origin and is causing dangerous global warming, climate change and climate disruption. The totality of the data available on which that theory is based is evaluated. The data include: (a) Vostok ice-core measurements; (b) accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere; (c) studies of temperature changes that precede CO2 changes; (d) global temperature trends; (e) current ratio of carbon isotopes in the atmosphere; (f) satellite data for the geographic distribution of atmospheric CO2; (g) effect of solar activity on cosmic rays and cloud cover. Nothing in the data supports the supposition that atmospheric CO2 is a driver of weather or climate, or that human emissions control atmospheric CO2.”Mikhailovich et al., 2016About the Influence of the Giant Planets onLong-Term Evolution of Global Temperature“The observed variability of global temperature is usually explained through the decrease in the coefficient of the grayness of the Earth caused by increased content of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, such as CO2, i.e. by the anthropogenically caused increase in the greenhouse effect. The validity of such views raises some doubts, as their validity is based either on the results of the climate simulation, or on the results of the regression analysis, in relation to which the fullness of the used set of regression does not seem certain. At the same time, just the results of climate modeling do not seem to be quite reliable … The effects associated with the displacement of the center of gravity of the solar system under the influence of giant planets (Jupiter and Saturn) are discussed. Based on the hypothesis of parametric resonance in the variation of global temperature with disturbances in the photosphere shape and the Earth-to-Sun distance due to the oppositions of said planets, a regression model that explains the observed long-term evolution of global temperature is built. It was shown that residuals of the model are close to white noise, i.e. the [influence of planets] hypothesis almost entirely explains the effect of temperature increase for the period presented in the vernacular crutem3 database [1850-present].”Vares et al., 2016… Earth’s Magnetic Dipole Intensity … GeomagneticActivity … Causal Source for Global Warming“Quantitative analyses of actual measurements rather than modeling have shown that “global warming” has been heterogeneous over the surface of the planet and temporally non-linear. Residual regression analyses by Soares (2010) indicated increments of increased temperature precede increments of CO2 increase. The remarkably strong negative correlation (r = -0.99) between the earth’s magnetic dipole moment values and global CO2-temperature indicators over the last ~30 years is sufficient to be considered causal if contributing energies were within the same order of magnitude. Quantitative convergence between the energies lost by the diminishing averaged geomagnetic field strength and energies gained within the ocean-atmosphere interface satisfy the measured values for increased global temperature and CO2 release from sea water. The pivotal variable is the optimal temporal unit employed to estimate the total energies available for physical-chemical reactions. The positive drift in averaged amplitude of geomagnetic activity over the last 100 years augmented this process. Contributions from annual CO2 from volcanism and shifts in averaged geomagnetic activity, lagged years before the measured global temperature-CO2 values, are moderating variables for smaller amplitude perturbations. These results indicated that the increase in CO2 and global temperatures are primarily caused by major geophysical factors, particularly the diminishing total geomagnetic field strength and increased geomagnetic activity, but not by human activities. Strategies for adapting to climate change because of these powerful variables may differ from those that assume exclusive anthropomorphic causes.”Easterbrook, 2016“CO2 makes up only a tiny portion of the atmosphere (0.040%) and constitutes only 3.6% of the greenhouse effect. The atmospheric content of CO2 has increased only 0.008% since emissions began to soar after 1945. Such a tiny increment of increase in CO2 cannot cause the 10°F increase in temperature predicted by CO2 advocates. Computer climate modelers build into their models a high water vapor component, which they claim is due to increased atmospheric water vapor caused by very small warming from CO2, and since water vapor makes up 90–95% of the greenhouse effect, they claim the result will be warming. The problem is that atmospheric water vapor has actually declined since 1948, not increased as demanded by climate models. If CO2 causes global warming, then CO2 should always precede warming when the Earth’s climate warms up after an ice age. However, in all cases, CO2 lags warming by ∼800 years. Shorter time spans show the same thing—warming always precedes an increase in CO2 and therefore it cannot be the cause of the warming.”Chemke et al., 2016The Thermodynamic Effect of AtmosphericMass on Early Earth’s TemperatureObservations suggest that Earth’s early atmospheric mass differed from the present day. The effects of a different atmospheric mass on radiative forcing have been investigated in climate models of variable sophistication, but a mechanistic understanding of the thermodynamic component of the effect of atmospheric mass on early climate is missing. Using a 3D idealized global circulation model (GCM), we systematically examine the thermodynamic effect of atmospheric mass on near-surface temperature. We find that higher atmospheric mass tends to increase the near-surface temperature mostly due an increase in the heat capacity of the atmosphere, which decreases the net radiative cooling effect in the lower layers of the atmosphere. Additionally, the vertical advection of heat by eddies decreases with increasing atmospheric mass, resulting in further near-surface warming. As both net radiative cooling and vertical eddy heat fluxes are extratropical phenomena, higher atmospheric mass tends to flatten the meridional temperature gradient.An increase in atmospheric mass causes an increase in near-surface temperatures and a decrease of the equator-pole near-surface temperature gradient. Warming is caused mostly by the increase in atmospheric heat capacity, which decrease the net radiative cooling of the atmosphere.[No mention of CO2 as a factor in warming the Earth-Atmosphere system]Haine, 2016“Notably, the three studies [Jackson et al., 2016; Böning et al., 2016; Robson et al., 2016] report an absence of anthropogenic effects on the AMOC, at least so far: the directly observed AMOC weakening since 2004 is not consistent with the hypothesis that anthropogenic aerosols have affected North Atlantic ocean temperatures. The midlatitude North Atlantic temperature changes since 2005 have greater magnitude and opposite sign (cooling) than those attributed to ocean uptake of anthropogenic heat. The anthropogenic melt from the Greenland ice sheet is still too small to be detected.. And despite large changes in the freshwater budget of the Arctic, some of which are anthropogenic, there is no clear change in the delivery of Arctic freshwater to the North Atlantic due to human climate forcing.”Ellis and Palmer, 2016Conclusion: “[I]nterglacial warming is eccentricity and polar ice regrowth regulated, Great Summer forced, and dust-ice albedo amplified. And the greenhouse-gas attributes of CO2 play little or no part in this complex feedback system.”Evans, 2016“The conventional basic climate model applies “basic physics” to climate, estimating sensitivity to CO2. However, it has two serious architectural errors. It only allows feedbacks in response to surface warming, so it omits the driver-specific feedbacks. It treats extra-absorbed sunlight, which heats the surface and increases outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR), the same as extra CO2, which reduces OLR from carbon dioxide in the upper atmosphere but does not increase the total OLR. The rerouting feedback is proposed. An increasing CO2 concentration warms the upper troposphere, heating the water vapor emissions layer and some cloud tops, which emit more OLR and descend to lower and warmer altitudes. This feedback resolves the nonobservation of the “hotspot.” An alternative model is developed, whose architecture fixes the errors. By summing the (surface) warmings due to climate drivers, rather than their forcings, it allows driver-specific forcings and allows a separate CO2 response (the conventional model applies the same response, the solar response, to all forcings). It also applies a radiation balance, estimating OLR from properties of the emission layers. Fitting the climate data to the alternative model, we find that the equilibrium climate sensitivity is most likely less than 0.5°C, increasing CO2 most likely caused less than 20% of the global warming from the 1970s, and the CO2 response is less than one-third as strong as the solar response. The conventional model overestimates the potency of CO2 because it applies the strong solar response instead of the weak CO2 response to the CO2 forcing.”Gervais, 2016Anthropogenic CO2 Warming Challenged By 60-year CycleConclusion: “Dangerous anthropogenic warming is questioned (i) upon recognition of the large amplitude of the natural 60–year cyclic component and (ii) upon revision downwards of the transient climate response consistent with latest tendencies shown in Fig. 1, here found to be at most 0.6 °C once the natural component has been removed, consistent with latest infrared studies (Harde, 2014). Anthropogenic warming well below the potentially dangerous range were reported in older and recent studies (Idso, 1998; Miskolczi, 2007; Paltridge et al., 2009; Gerlich and Tscheuschner, 2009; Lindzen and Choi, 2009, 2011; Spencer and Braswell, 2010; Clark, 2010; Kramm and Dlugi, 2011; Lewis and Curry, 2014; Skeie et al., 2014; Lewis, 2015; Volokin and ReLlez, 2015). On inspection of a risk of anthropogenic warming thus toned down, a change of paradigm which highlights a benefit for mankind related to the increase of plant feeding and crops yields by enhanced CO2 photosynthesis is suggested.”http://notrickszone.com/2017/06/...More evidence of no global warming today is data about sea levels not risingLet’s begin with the long view that shows like temperature graphs a strong trend line of falling sea levels.Like all climate SL graphs are seesaw up and down but the trend line is clearly down.Bewildered Scientists…A Global Warming Crisis Fails To Appear: Sea Level Rise Grinds To A CrawlBy P Gosselin on 2. February 2018Over the past months a spate of scientific papers published show sea level rise has not accelerated like many climate warming scientists warned earlier. The reality is that the rise is far slower than expected, read here and here.Alarmist bedwetting by scientists over sea level rise proving to have been needless. Photo: PIK climate scientist Stefan Rahmstorf. Source: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Rahmstorf FTP folder.Scary scenarios aboundThe latest findings glaringly contradict alarmist claims of accelerating sea level rise. For example the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) here wrote sea levels would “likely rise for many centuries at rates higher than that of the current century”, due to global warming.In 2013 The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) wrote here sea-level rise in this century would likely be 70-120 centimeters by 2100″ (i.e. 7 – 12 mm annually) and that 90 experts in a survey “anticipated a median sea-level rise of 200-300 centimeters by the year 2300” (i.e. on average circa 7 to 10 mm every year).It’s important to note that the above scary figures given above are mostly based on computer simulations, where parameters are simply assumed by the scientists.Evidence in fact points to decelerationUsing these modelled estimates, the globe should now be seeing a rapid acceleration in sea level rise. Yet no evidence of this can be found so far. In fact the real measured data show the opposite is happening: a deceleration in sea level rise is taking place.Instead of the 7 – 12 mm annual sea level rise the PIK projected in 2013, a recent study appearing in the Geophysical Research Letters in April 2017 corrected the satellite measured sea level rise downwards from 3.3 mm annually to just 3.0 mm over the past 24 years – or less than half what PIK models projected.Only 1.5 mm/yearWorse, satellite data measuring sea level have turned out to be far more complex and uncertain than one would wish, and evidence is piling up and showing that satellite data likely have been overstating sea level rise. For example when measuring sea level rise along coastlines (where people actually live)using tide gauges, the rise has even been far slower. Renowned Swedish sea level expert Axel Mörner published a paper in 2017 showing an observed sea level rise rate of only 1.5 – 2.0 mm/year.Second half of the 20th century slower than in the first halfIn another newly published paper by Frederiske et al. 2018 just this year, oceanographers estimate that global sea levels rose at a rate of only 1.42 mm per year between 1958 and 2014. That figure closely coincides with the results of Dr. Simon Holgate from 2007. According to the Holgate study: “The rate of sea level change was found to be larger in the early part of last century (2.03 ± 0.35 mm/yr 1904–1953), in comparison with the latter part (1.45 ± 0.34 mm/yr 1954–2003).”The Holgate result was confirmed by another 2008 paper authored by Jevrejeva et al, which found the fastest sea level rise during the past 300 years was observed between 1920 – 1950 with maximum of 2.5 mm/yr.In other words: global sea level rise has decelerated since the 1950s.At less than 2 mm annually, sea level is rising at only one sixth of the 12 mm per year rate pArchive for February 2018... rojected by the PIK in 2013.12. Sea level predictions1981 James Hansen, NASA scientist, predicted a global warming of “almost unprecedented magnitude” in the next century that might even be sufficient to melt and dislodge the ice cover of West Antarctica, eventually leading to a worldwide rise of 15 to 20 feet in the sea level. See here.Reality check: Since 1993 (24 years) we have totaled 72 mm (3 inches) of sea level rise instead of the 4 feet that corresponds to one-fourth of a century. The alarming prediction is more than 94% wrong, so far. See here.There must be a correlation between falling sea levels and freezing colder temperatures of the past 5 years?Arctic air brings record cold winter to Chicago and world.

Winter weather is often severe with massive snowfall and record cold temperatures. Floods continue causing devastation to humans. Is global warming/climate change responsible for extreme weather disasters as Al Gore alleges? HOW DOES GLOBAL WARMING AFFECT THE WEATHER?Thursday, January 29, 2015New paper finds global warming reduces intense storms & extreme weatherA paper published today in Science contradicts the prior belief that global warming, if it resumes, will fuel more intense storms, finding instead that an increase in water vapor and strengthened hydrological cycle will reduce the atmosphere's ability to perform thermodynamic Work, thus decreasing the formation of intense winds, storms, and hurricanes. The authors demonstrate instead that if warming resumes"Although the hydrological cycle may increase in intensity, it does so at the expense of its ability to do work, such as powering large-scale atmospheric circulation or fueling more very intense storms."The paper adds to many others demonstrating that a warmer climate is a more benign climate with fewer extreme weather events, opposite the claims of climate alarmists. Claims of global warming producing more extreme weather due to "more energy in the system" are refuted by the paper which finds the atmosphere will become "less energetic" and the atmospheric "Carnot engine" will become less efficient at performing Work (such as generating intense winds and storms) due to global warming and a decrease of temperature differentials.Constrained work output of the moist atmospheric heat engine in a warming climateF. Laliberté1,*,J. Zika2,L. Mudryk3,P. J. Kushner1,J. Kjellsson3,K. Döös4EDITOR'S SUMMARY:Because the rain falls and the wind blowsGlobal warming is expected to intensify the hydrological cycle, but it might also make the atmosphere less energetic. Laliberté et al. modeled the atmosphere as a classical heat engine in order to evaluate how much energy it contains and how much work it can do (see the Perspective by Pauluis). They then used a global climate model to project how that might change as climate warms. Although the hydrological cycle may increase in intensity, it does so at the expense of its ability to do work, such as powering large-scale atmospheric circulation or fueling more very intense storms.ABSTRACTEDITOR'S SUMMARYIncoming and outgoing solar radiation couple with heat exchange at Earth’s surface to drive weather patterns that redistribute heat and moisture around the globe, creating an atmospheric heat engine. Here, we investigate the engine’s work output using thermodynamic diagrams computed from reanalyzed observations and from a climate model simulation with anthropogenic forcing. We show that the work output is always less than that of an equivalent Carnot cycle and that it is constrained by the power necessary to maintain the hydrological cycle. In the climate simulation, the hydrological cycle increases more rapidly than the equivalent Carnot cycle. We conclude that the intensification of the hydrological cycle in warmer climates might limit the heat engine’s ability to generate work.Related ResourcesIn Science MagazinePERSPECTIVEATMOSPHERIC SCIENCEThe global engine that could Olivier M. PauluisScience 30 January 2015: 475-476.http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.ca/2015/01/new-paper-finds-global-warming-reduces.htmlThe IPCC predicted in 2001 the anthropogenic warming would result in more moderate winters without snow. This view caught the attention of some scientists and media at the time writing stories about children growing up in England without ever experiencing snow. PURE NONSENSE.AL GORE AND MEDIA DISSERVICE TO SCIENCEAl Gore and the media are chided by Oxford scientists for taking the opposite stance and blaming floods and storms on man-made global warming.Al Gore is doing a disservice to science by overplaying the link between climate change and weather says Oxford climate professor, Myles AllenTo claim that we are causing meteorological events that would not have occurred without human influence is just plain wrong.When Al Gore said last week that scientists now have clear proof that climate change is directly responsible for the extreme and devastating floods, storms and droughts that displaced millions of people this year, my heart sank. Having suggested the idea of "event attribution" back in 2003, and co-authored a study published earlier this year on the origins of the UK floods in autumn 2000, I suspect I may be one of the scientists being talked about.https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/oct/07/al-gore-science-climate-weather (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/oct/07/al-gore-science-climate-weather)Climate Change Not to Blame for Extreme WintersBy Jenna IacurciMar 28, 2015 01:42 PM EDTPrevious research has suggested that climate change brings heat waves and cold snaps along with it, but a new study has come to a different conclusion.According to scientists at ETH Zurich and the California Institute of Technology (Caltech), climate change is not to blame for our extreme winters, and in fact tends to reduce temperature variability.In recent years, the eastern United States has experienced temperatures far below freezing, raising the question of whether or not climate change was the culprit. It has been suggested that recent warming in the Arctic relative to lower latitudes has weakened the polar jet stream. Consequently, a weaker jet stream becomes more wavy leading to greater fluctuations in temperature in mid-latitudes.Thus, amplified Arctic warming may have contributed to the cold snaps that hit the eastern United States. However, the team from ETH Zurich and Caltech has a different theory."The waviness of the jet stream that makes our day-to-day weather does not change much," lead author Tapio Schneider said in a statement.Using climate simulations and theoretical arguments, they showed that in most places, the range of temperature fluctuations will in fact decrease as the climate warms. So cold snaps will not only become more rare, but less frequent because fluctuations about the warming mean temperature also become smaller.According to the study, published in the Journal of Climate, higher latitudes are indeed warming faster than lower ones, which means that the temperature difference between the equator and the poles is decreasing. If this difference were ever to disappear, then in theory temperature variability would no longer exist.To test their theory, the researchers examined various climate scenarios. It showed that the temperature variability in mid-latitudes indeed decreases as the temperature difference between the poles and the equator diminishes. This goes along with climate model simulations by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).And while this suggests that temperature extremes will become rarer, it does not mean that there won't be any temperature extremes in the future. Other extreme events, such as storms with heavy rain or snowfall, can still become more common as the climate warms."Despite lower temperature variance, there will be more extreme warm periods in the future because the Earth is warming," said Schneider.Scientists plan to study the implications these results have in further research in order to better predict how climate change may possibly affect extreme weather in the future.For more great nature science stories and general news, please visit our sister site, Headlines and Global News (HNGN).http://www.natureworldnews.com/articles/13756/20150328/climate-change-not-to-blame-for-extreme-winters.htmCASE STUDY OF MONGOLIAN ZUDS BRUTAL WINTER DISASTERSThe best introduction comes from the Mongolian Ministry of Environment report -Illegal mining protest in front of Ministry of Environmenthttp://www.yestolifenotomining.org/mongolia-demonstrators-stage-sit-in-to-demand-cancellation-of-illegal-gold-mining-permit/MongoliaMinistry of Nature and Environment2.1. ZudZud (severe winter conditions) is a phenomenon when cattle is lost en mass due to lack of fodder in winter, spring and autumn seasons. Our herdsmen used to divide the zud conditions into :white zudblack zud or tuurain zudstorm zudiron or glass zudwhich depends upon the factors serving to their occurrence.When heavy snowfalls take place late in autumn and at the beginning of winter and the pastures are under a deep cover of snow and cattle unable to reach the pasture fodder perishes and dies in winter-spring seasons it is called a white zud, when due to a long snowless period cattle perishes suffering due to lack of water and lots of cattle are gathered around a single well, the pasture is overgrazed and eventually the cattle perishes is called black zud. The black zud accompanied by extreme low temperatures turns into a really “black” zud. The winter of 1969 is the classical example of such a black zud. When snowfall is accompanied with blizzards for an extended period, the snow is covered with crust of ice, and cattle being unable to go up has to go downwind, it is called a stormy zud. The zud of the notorious year of the Monkey (1944-1945) is the classical example of this type of zud. When wet snow fallen early in spring-winter and late in autumn or after the snow cover has been formed, suddenly thaw sets in, due to which a thin crust of ice is formed over the snow so that the cattle could not reach fodder even if the snow cover is thin, and eventually perishes, is called iron or glass zud. In years with iron zud several layers of ice are often formed over the snow. It sometimes occurs when rains fall in winter period. White and stormy, cold zud may occur in a combined manner and then it is the great zud. Some researchers prefer to call it a combined zud (Chogsom, 1962).According to historical data, whenever zud occurs in Mongolia with its pasture cattle breeding, it turns into a national level disaster. The disastrous consequences of zud have some definite relationship with the previous year’s grassland yield. It is proved by many evidences that most disastrous zud events occur mainly after a droughty summer-autumn period. If the summer was droughty and arid, the zud should be expected to occur even if there are not so much snowfall in winter. If the grassland yield was sufficient in summer, the zud conditions would not be formed even if much snow would fall in winter. During the summer before the year of the Monkey (1994-1945) there was a red zud covered the entire territory of Mongolia (a zud extended to the whole territory of the country happened also in 1972 over the last 6 decades), the heavy snow started falling since November and its depth reached 15-28 cm, with bitter frost throughout the winter (after 1940 no such a year with so low temperatures to keep on since November through January, February and till March was recorded any more in Mongolia) and over 8 million head, i.e. one third of the national herd of Mongolia that was recorded in the course of the 1994 inventory were lost.As can be seen from the historical sources, zud extended to more than a half of the country’s territory were recorded during the years of 72 B.C., 1308, 1337, 1340, 1450, 1608, 1626, 1821, 1825, 1839, 1884, 1875, 1891, 1901, 1935, 1944, 1949, 1953, 1956, 1963, 1966, 1967, 1987, 1992 A.D. Surveys conducted since 1640 in the eastern regions of Mongolia (former Tsetsenkhan, Tusheet khan aimags) have shown that zud covering over 75% of the territory of the country occur once in 20-22 year-period and winters when zud did not occur even in one soum are very rare. However, zud can happen in any part of the country.2.2. DroughtDrought is a natural phenomenon leading to the loss of cultivated and grassland vegetation yields and moreover, to the depletion of soils fertility. Drought and desertification are a most complicated process stipulated by a number of factors. If in any agrarian country the drought and desertification issues are directly related with that country’s survival, for our country with its grassland cattle breeding-based economy it rarely causes such consequences as famine, mass losses of livestock but, nonetheless, is of especial significance for the country’s sustainable development.A drought is the result of lack or insufficiency of precipitation and excessive evaporation leading to a hydrologic imbalance and consequently, water shortages in the soil and the vegetation and, as a result, to the crop damage and reduction of its yield. The occurrence of drought is of double dependence upon the grassland utilization and agrotechnical culture (level of operation). The direct consequences of a drought are such as losses of yield, its reduction and its eventual outcome is desertification. Thereby, at the international level the issues of drought and of desertification are generally considered coupled together.Chapter 12 of the XXI Century programme is entitled “wise use of sensitive ecosystems and combating drought and desertification” and the notion of desertification is defined as “the process of soil degradation and depletion owing to the impact of a range of various factors in arid and semi arid regions without sufficient moisture content going on under the anthropogenic impact”. Some of our geographers understanding the desertification schematically as a desert and a process of alteration according to its original meaning tried to confine the desertification studies to the issues of sand drift only. But in the International Convention for combating drought and/or desertification affecting the world’s countries including Africa it is clearly indicated “Drought and/or desertification”, so it would be appropriate to consider those issues together.Over 90 % of Mongolia’s territory is referred to arid, semi arid, moderate arid and moisture deficient regions, 41.3% or 647.0 thousand square kilometers of its territory is occupied by a Gobi desert region which makes the issue of drought and desertification of especial prominence.The major factors causing soil degradation are drought and soils weathering due to wind and humidity factors.Drought is regularly recurrent once in 10 years in the country’s forest steppe and steppe zone whereas in the desert zone it has a 2-year cycle. According to the historical documents, the red drought occurred in Mongolia in 68 and 46 B.D. and 1248, 1254, 1337, 1372, 1727, 1827, 1952, 1854, 1860, 1882, 1884, 1885, 1892, 1927, 1935, 1941, 1944, 1946, 1951, 1968, 1970, 1972, 1980, 1986, 1988, 1989, 1991 A.D. The drought may be classified with respect to its intensity as slightly droughty - when the grassland yield is poor, droughty - the yield is very scanty, red drought - no vegetation growth at all. When drought lasts for years the ground water’s level lowers down, no vegetation flourishing raining incessantly.The quantitative characteristics of drought may be estimated by different drought indices and vegetation index (meteorological satellite-based data). According to a drought assessment index derived by D. A. Ped the drought occurrence tends to increase in Mongolia since 1940. If in 1941-1950 a drought extended to over 50% of the country’s areas occurred 3 times, in 1951-1960 and in 1961-1970 once, in 1971-1980 twice, then in 1981-1990 it recurs four times.The soil degradation and depletion is intensified when the desertification-related natural factors are accompanied by anthropogenic actions. It can be illustrated by the state of affairs in Mongolia over the last 40 years regarding such factors as:utilization of grasslands without any rotation for an extended periodwoods and forests have been destroyed and cut down in larger quantities for wood firing purposespowerful chemical substances have been applied to protect vegetation and liquidate pests due to which many soil micro organisms have been destroyedthe irrigation activities not carried out according to a rational schedule, has resulted in the soil salivation and swamping processes developeddue to such activities as geological prospecting, motor transportation and military actions intensified the soil technogenic erosion and degradation rates have increasedDuring the last 30 years the total number of livestock has increased in Mongolia by 44 % while the volume of grasslands reduced by 20%. Due to the overgrazing of the existing grassland its yield per hectare has dropped by 19-44%. On the country’s scale there are 1,2222 square kilometers of grassland reserves of which 24% are exposed to erosion (over 50%), vegetation diversity changes as for 7.7 million hectares of grassland.Over the last 40 years when agriculture started developing in the country 46.5% of arable rotation areas are recorded to suffer of moderate and high degree of erosion.Nearly 70% of the abandoned land are not cultivated due to heavy soil degradation. The amount of humus in an erosion-exposed area is reduced by 29.3-48.7% which should be assessed as disastrous for our country with its poor soil resources.Another factor leading to the soil degradation is a lack of forests. Nearly 10% of the country’s territory is covered with forests but its scarce forest reserves are being reduced due to the intensive timbering and logging, destroyed by forest fires, or by insects. Annually 10-14 thousand hectares are cut down, 2,3-2300.0 thousand hectares of land destroyed due to fires, approximately 100 thousand hectares of forests are damaged by insects.It is the other reason for Mongolian rivers’ waters being shoaled along with an increasing threat of floods. The saxaul bushes growing in the Gobi and desert zone are increasingly being applied as fuel which promotes the sand drifts. In a period between 1975-1990 the average vegetation duration of saxaul bushes is become as short as nearly a half of that recorded previously and an area with growing younger saxaul bushes decreased by 34.2% and that with medium age bushes - by 42.0 thousand hectares, accordingly.2.3. Winds and stormsa) BlizzardsOne of most disastrous meteorological phenomenon that causes in a very brief time greatest damages to an economy with grassland animal husbandry is blizzard which is next to drought and desertification phenomenon with respect to its harmful consequences. On estimating the damage caused by blizzards occurred in the eastern part of Mongolia in between 1980-1984 it is established that on the average, 740 thousand US$ damage was caused by one blizzard (D.Myagmarjav, 1987). If blizzards are recorded to occur in the country’s desert regions and the Depression of Great Lakes comparatively rarely (about one day per year) in the Khangai and Gobi boundary areas it makes up 10-15 days and in the Khyangan range’s western part up to 20 days.In Mongolia a blizzard that lasts over 9 hours and is accompanied with over 16 m/s winds is qualified as of special danger. Blizzards to continue less than one hour or over 12 hours not occur so often, the occurrence of blizzards which duration ranges between 1.0-3.0 hours is 30%, of 3.1-6.0 hours - 20-30% and of 6.1-9.0 hours - 15% . According to the historical data, there are approximately 30-60 hours, on the average, of blizzards occurring in the Khangai and Gobi boundary area and in the eastern steppe. During the snowstorms cattle going downwind and the herdsmen following their cattle are frequent to get lost and freeze to death. Also due to winds blowing from the south the cattle pens and corals are snow-bound and flocks of cattle could be buried under snow in their pens which occurs sometimes. If winds are blowing from different directions, the snow around the bushes and feather grass is drifted over by snow and then even camels can not survive without fodder in the Gobi steppe. If we consider some facts referring to snowstorms occurred during the last 30 years, it turns out that:during a heavy blizzard happened on April 15-21, 1980 which extended to a half of Mongolia’s territory, the wind speed reached sometimes 40-55 m/s and the blizzard that lasted over 60-70 hours killed 43 persons and 0.9 million head of cattle.during the March 19-22, 1987 blizzard occurred on the territory of Khentii, Sukhbaatar and Dornogobi aimags claimed the lives of 19 people and 37 thousand head of cattle during the snowstorm occurred on January 18-22, 1988 on the territory of Dornod, Khentii, Sukhbaatar and Dornogobi aimags which continued 30-37 hours 6 people died and 114 people that were tendering their cattle had to stay overnight in the outdoors due to which 5 people froze to death, 30 gers (national dwelling) fell down, 3 buildings’ roofs were blown off with the wind, nearly 10 thousand head of cattle perished and 720 cattle pens were blocked with snow during the heavy blizzard raged on May 5-6, 1993 and covered the territories of 6 central aimags of Mongolia 16 people lost their lives, about 100.0 thousand cattle perished and such examples can be continued.b) Dust stormsMongolia is regarded as a country where dust storms are rather common. The dust carried with the winds from the Central Asiatic Gobi desert has definite impacts upon the countries of Eastern Asia. On the other hand, the dust risen and carried away by the wind is considered as one of the major causes of soil erosion. Violent dust storms sometimes hamper the driving of cattle to another pastures and they can block the road traffic. People staying in the steppe overnight are frequent to get lost and freeze to death. A strong dust storm that can be seen in the Mongolian Gobi called by the Mongolians “ugalz” (simoom). Dust is often carried away when the wind is strong and there are plenty of such material as sand and dust available so in the Mongolian gobi the number of dust days is 30-60 per year. The most dusty place in Mongolia is the Mongolian sand’s southern edge where annually the amount of dust days accounts for 660 hours in total for 124 days. A dust storm is likely to last for about 3-6 times, but in springs there are examples when it blows for up several days.Since the 1960s the process of urbanization intensified, a new economy’s sector of agriculture appeared, the soils started being ploughed in rotation, cooperative movement overwon, the livestock was specialized by its kinds and placed en mass in one place to be tendered by specialized brigades; new industries of geology, mining and motor transport developed, the soil erosion coupled with the Gobi aridisation started developing and the threat of dust storms increased. It can be easily illustrated by the fact that the number of dust days has increased nearly 3-4 times during the 90s as compared with the 60s.If we would take it by decades then in the Gobi aimags the number of dust days was 16, on the average, during 1960-1969, in 1970-1979 it constituted 23 days and in 1980-1989 has risen up to 41 days.There are neither reliable information nor definite criteria to assess the information on the damages resulted from dust storms. On November 27-30, 1991 a strong dust storm with gusts achieving 28-40 m/s swept through territories of the country’s 12 aimags, approximately 51.5 thousand square km of arable lands were left bared without topsoil so that there were no possibilities for livestock grazing on the pastures.According to the estimates provided by the meteorological institute’s research worker d. Jamiyanaa, annually 4,000 tones of sand and dust are being carried away into the atmosphere out of an area of 1 square km in the region of Zamyn-Uud.c) Strong windAnnually strong winds with gusts speed coming up to over 15 m/s occur in the Gobi region 30-76 days, in the steppe region 30-76 days, in the forest steppe region 5-15, in the Khangai, Khovsgol, Khentii alpine taiga regions 1-5 days.A strong wind (tornado) is recorded to last for about 1-2 hours in winter and summer seasons and 3-6 hours in spring and autumn seasons. The maximum wind speed exceeds 40 m/s in the gobian and steppe region but when a foehn wind overgrows into a tornado its speed is over 40 m/s which is possible to occur anywhere on the territory of Mongolia. The wind with most speed measured was recorded on April 16, 1980 in the surroundings of Ulaanbaatar on top of Morin-Uul reaching 55 m/s and when a strong tornado raged on the territory of the centre of Batshireet soum’s Tsagaan us brigade in Khentii aimag on July 21, 1974 its speed exceeded 100 m/s. When a foehn wind occurred in Buyant-Ukhaa on June 19, 1949 at 17.00 its speed was 40 m/s. When a foehn wind was recorded in the surroundings of Ulaanbaatar on July 6, 1973, its speed registered at the meteorological station was 28 m/s but its part stretched through the eastern part of Tolgoit from Buyant-Ukhaa and went by the back of Chingeltei uprooting and bending the forest trees. The most disastrous tornado taken place recently was that happened on June 33, 1997 on the territories of Arkhangai, Ovorkhangai, Tov and Bulgan aimags with a speed of 28-34 m/s when many supports of high transmission lines were downed and many gers and property blown off causing to the citizens only damages in the amount of more than 100 million.2.4. FloodFloods occurring in our country fall into rainfall, flash and spring floods.a) Rainfall flood. Due to heavy precipitation in the river’s basin region the river waters overflow against its banks, that is what is called a rainfall flood. According to the historical data, heavy floods took place in 1751, 1785, 1800, 1830, 1854, 1864, 1867, 1869, 1897, 1910, 1911, 1915, 1922, 1927, 1932, 1936, 1938, 1940, 1966, 1967, 1972, 1976, 1993, 1995 and 1997. The precipitation flood has a 4-6, 9-11, 22-26, 40-50, 67-70 year- cycles.The rainfall flood causes great damages when it happens in more densely populated areas. During July 11-12, 1966, the water level of the river of Tuul increased by 3.12m against its usual level and a flood occurred overflowing the capital city’s industrial region, damages caused in the amount of 300 million togrogs, i.e. 7.5 million US$ and 130 people lost their lives. In 1993 floods were recorded in Uvs, Zavkhan, Gobi Altai, Bayankhongor, Arjhangai, Bulga, Selenge, Khentii aimags when scores of bridges were crushed and many households whose gers were built around the river banks were swept away with the floodwater. According to incomplete data being available, over 1.0 million USD worth of damage was caused.b) Spring flood takes place usually in the rivers originating from the Mongolian Altai, Khovsgal, Khangai ranges and it was recorded to take place in 1962. This type of flood usually occurs in the spring when following heavy snowfalls the snow melts, the thawing of snow-capped mountains ice and snow goes on intensively.c) Flash flood is one of natural disasters which claims an immense toll of human lives. After shower rains in mountainous localities their Quaternary loosen sediments are dissolved and washed away with the rainfall water producing thus a flash flood.This type of flood may occur anywhere in our country. As preconditions for this flood are created by shower rains it is frequent to be combined with foehn winds and hails.Exploratory Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Dzud Development in Mongolia, 1993-2004Ninel ShestakovichA thesis submittedin partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree ofMaster of Science in the School of Natural Resources & Environment of the University of MichiganNovember 2010Thesis Committee: Dr. Kathleen Bergen Dr. Dan BrownAbstractDzud is a natural disaster endemic to parts of Central Asia and fairly unknown outside of the region. During spells of severe winter weather, livestock population suffers debilitating death from starvation and cold, which exacts enormous economic losses to nomadic herders and the society at large. Focusing on dzud outbreaks between 1993 and 2004 in Mongolia, I explored environmental and anthropogenic factors that contribute to geographic distribution of dzud impact and evaluate success of classical and spatial regression models to predict dzud mortality. Four regression methods were tested including ordinary least squares regression, spatial autoregressive models, geographically weighted regression, and recursive partitioning.Regional heterogeneity in patterns of livestock mortality and contributing factors, as well as low efficiency of regression models, suggest that a single-model framework of analysis and non-normalized explanatory variables tend to perform poorly. The recursive-partitioning results demonstrate that the presence of several distinct ecological biomes within the territory of Mongolia create non-stationary and non-linear relationships between factors and livestock mortality. Diversity of ecological conditions drives regional predisposition for different types of dzud, most notably white dzud in mountainous and northern parts of Mongolia and black dzud in the Gobi desert.The comparison of dzud episodes of 1993 and 2000-2003 revealed that an additional contributing factor unaccounted in previous modeling exercises of dzud is the long-distance mobility of herders as a main strategy for risk mitigation. While it is a necessary adaptation for livestock management in arid grasslands, under contemporary conditions of high livestock density it has an unexpected effect of spreading dzud vulnerability into unaffected areas, which may have contributed to development of multi-annual dzud episodes such as the one that occurred in 2000-2003. Since the transition of Mongolia to free-market economy, the vulnerability of herders to dzud has increased against a backdrop of exploding livestock population, a dysfunctional system of rangeland management, and withdrawal of government-run disaster preparedness programs.ConclusionThe insights gained through this study reveal several characteristics of dzud phenomenon that improve our understanding and ability to model, predict and mitigate this natural disaster. The processes that govern dzud dynamics are non-stationary and vary in space due to ecological heterogeneity of the Mongolian landscape. The spatial analysis showed that higher losses are observed during white dzud, which is endemic to mountainous and northern regions, and low intensity but high frequency black dzud events occur in the Gobi and semi-desert regions. The driving factors that frequently show strong association with livestock mortality are vegetation cover, snow water equivalent, temperature, livestock density, and previous-year mortality. Inclusion of herd composition variables, except for the percent horse, did not add explanatory power to the model but rather detracted from its efficiency. An additional factor describing herder mobility should be incorporated into future models. Finally, on the decadal time scale, the analysis shows that the vulnerability of the Mongolian herders to dzud has increased and the contribution of different factors to dzud mortality has changed.50The design of the study inherently had several weaknesses related mainly to coarse temporal and spatial resolution of the analysis due to unavailable ground data. Field measurements at weather stations would be necessary to derive variables such as a drought index or indices of anomalous temperature and precipitation. Some meteorological data were available from the U. S. National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) site, but their spatial coverage over Mongolia is sparse and temporal coverage inconsistent. Because reliable weather data were not available at the time of the study, information on grassland productivity and snow amounts relies exclusively on remote sensing datasets, in the form of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and estimates of snow water equivalents (SWE), respectively. This approach inherits several disadvantages such as loss of information due to coarse spatial and temporal resolutions and future studies should develop variables based on ground observations of weather data augmented by remote sensing products.Based on the results of the study, several improvements could be introduced into future modeling studies. It seems reasonable to assume that equilibrium and non-equilibrium ecosystems within Mongolia have different dzud dynamics (Begzsuren, Ellis et al. 2004; Sternberg, Middleton et al. 2009). Models that incorporate both types of ecosystems into a single framework at the same spatial and temporal resolution have low efficiency and prone to misspecification. Normalization of explanatory variables against their long-term running average would make comparable such distinct ecosystem as the Gobi desert and forest-steppe and would improve the efficiency of modeling. The approach with different temporal and/or spatial scales should be also explored further.The non-linear and interactive relationships between snow depth and temperature could be better accommodated by a snow-temperature index. A simple interaction term of snow water equivalent and temperature in a multiplicative form was tested in GWR 1993 model and significantly improved explanatory power of the model, which indicates that indexation of snow and temperature should be explored in further research. A variable describing migration of herders also should be developed and included into a future predictive dzud model. An attempt to introduce such a variable based on annual increase and decrease of number of herder households in counties was tested on 2000-2003 datasets and replaced the negative associations between previous-year mortality and livestock mortality variables. The human population variable could be also used as a proxy for herder migration.The findings of the study provide valuable insights into a mechanism of dzud development which have far reaching implications for the national disaster management authorities, international development and disaster relief agencies. In order to develop effective mitigation policies, it is essential to understand factors that cause dzud and contribute to vulnerability of rural population. Contribution of herders migration in response to dzud should be better understood so that the advantage of their mobility is capitalized rather than become a maladaptation in a new system of decentralized livestock management.https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/handle/2027.42/85158/Nina%20S_thesis_061211.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=yThe worst dzud in recent Years appears to have been 1944/45 and the event seems to be a very frequent http://occurence.it was made worse by a great upsurge in livestock with subsequent overgrazing. Difficult to see the agw connection but easy to sympathise with the people affected.MONGOLIAN YERT COVERED BY BRUTAL BLIZZARDMongolian dzud kills millions of domestic animalsPosted by David Maxwell Braun of National Geographic Society on April 26, 2010By James SawyerImagine trying to survive in temperatures below minus 50 degrees F (minus 47 degrees C) for more than a month.It happened in Mongolia this winter–weather so cold that livestock and other animals were dying painfully at a rate of a quarter of a million deaths every week, resulting in the loss of millions of animals over the season.Imagine the impact such a disaster has on humans–economically, environmentally and health-wise.Photo © WSPAThis winter disaster is happening right now in Dundgovi Aimag, a province about 150 miles south of Mongolia’s capital city, Ulaanbataar, on the Gobi Desert steppe.Mongolia’s Animal DisasterA dzud, an extreme winter phenomenon with temperatures as low as -52.6 degrees F, has caused significant suffering and death to approximately 3.4 million livestock in Mongolia, to date.Damien Woodberry, a veterinarian with The World Society for the Protection of Animals’ (WSPA) disaster response team, recently visited Mongolia, where he worked with WSPA’s member society, the Cambridge Mongolia Development Appeal (CAMDA), to deliver emergency aid to animals.“The landscape is literally littered with dead animals–cows, sheep, goats, yaks, horses and camels. It is horrific,” said Woodberry. “Most the herders’ gers or yurts–semi-permanent tents that they live in–have large piles of dead animals next to them. The ones left alive are sick or so weak they barely move when you approach, and all are extremely thin.”Cold weather happens every winter, but this Mongolian dzud is a combination of events causing a far higher rate of animal death:Summer droughts: These prevented many herders from stockpiling sufficient hay and fodder reserves to last their animals through the winter.A higher-than-usual winter snow fall: Animals couldn’t access what pastures remained and herders’ efforts to feed with their own stocks was hampered.Extreme cold: Snow on the ground turned to ice, making it impossible for animals to use what little pasture had been available. The animals, who already suffered from malnutrition, then became extremely vulnerable to hypothermia.The last dzud in 2001 killed about 11 million animals. However, experts estimate this dzud will be worse. With no relief until at least May, possibly even as late as June. A total loss of 4-5 million animals is expected by spring. By the end of the disaster, an estimated 20 million animals could have died.“I have been a herder since 1960 and have never seen a winter as cold as this one,” said Mr. A. Lkhagvasurn, Adaatsag Soum, Dundgovi Aimag. “My two neighbours have already lost all their animals and if I lose all mine, I do not know what I will do.”“I saw family after family in tears at the plight of their animals and the very uncertain future ahead of them. Many herders have lost 50-60 percent of their herds, while some have lost their entire herd and, with it, their livelihood. A humanitarian disaster is waiting,” Woodberry said.Disaster’s Effect on HumansWhile there have been only nine reported human deaths, the massive livestock losses will mean many herders will lose their livelihoods, meaning a large increase in unemployment.“We only started herding after we got married four year ago with 100 animals. But, through hard work, we managed to grow our herd to 450 and also looked after my father-in-law’s 300 animals,” said residents Mr and Mrs Sergetenbaatar, Adaatsag Soum, Dundgovi Aimag. “But now, we have only 30 animals left. We don’t have any higher education or job prospects and do not know what we will do. We got a bank loan at the end of last year and now cannot pay it back and may lose our collateral. We have two children–what will we do with them if we lose everything?”The situation is starting to get so bad that an increasing number of herders are facing starvation themselves. This figure was 20,000 at the end of January but is estimated to have risen significantly since then.Photo © WSPADzud Aid has ArrivedThe Mongolian government declared a state of disaster in 12 aimags (provinces) and provided each one with MNT 330,000,000 ($230,000) for disaster relief in the form of livestock feed, veterinary and medical services, food and warm clothing for herders. It also released the national hay and fodder reserves, which is being sold at 50 percent of normal cost to herders, and paid stipends to all herder households with elderly or disabled members so they could purchase feed and medicines for their livestock.Additionally, WSPA provided funding for its member society Cambridge-Mongolian Development Appeal (CAMDA) to purchase 130 tons of concentrated fodder and 1.3 tons of milk powder, which was distributed to 2,517 herder households in three soums (sub-divisions) in Dundgovi Aimag.The concentrated fodder was used by herders to feed pregnant animals, as they were at greatest risk from the dzud and dying in large numbers. The pregnant animals are vital to recovery; the loss of expectant mothers and their newborns can mean the potential loss of a whole reproductive cycle and a second generation of animals.Other entities, including the Chinese, Russian and Turkish governments, as well as the United Nation’s Central Emergency Relief Fund (CERF), have allocated funding to the disaster.Disaster ContinuesNearly all herder households who had managed to stockpile some hay and fodder reserves before the dzud have run out of food for their animals. Many stretched their hay reserves by mixing horse dung with it to feed to ruminants. Some better prepared herders still have feed reserves and there is still hay, bran and concentrated fodder available for herders to purchase, but all are running out.Even though the weather has started to improve with the arrival of spring (March-May,) animals will be at risk of dying until at least mid-May. Grass growth is not expected until sometime in May, depending on weather conditions.WSPA and CAMDA are committed to continuing their assistance in the area. The organizations have both the will and capacity to undertake a longer-term project and, with additional funding, can help many more animals and families in Mongolia.For progress updates on the Mongolian dzud and related news during the next few months, please visit WSPA’s Animals in Disaster blog.James Sawyer is the Head of Disaster Management at the The World Society for the Protection of Animals (WSPA)http://voices.nationalgeographic.com/2010/04/26/mongolian_dzud_kills_millions/By Lean Alfred Santos @DevexLeanAS07 March 2016The effects of climate change have been severe in Mongolia, bordered by Russia to the north and China to the south. In 2009 and 2010 alone, around 8.5 million livestock died — consisting mostly of goats, sheep, cows and horses — as a result of extreme weather conditions known as a “dzud,” a summer drought followed by a heavy snowfall.The phenomenon is unique to the East Asian nation, exacerbated by the fact that around one-third of the country's work force depends on animal husbandry and livestock herding to earn a living. And this year, dzud is once again threatening livelihoods.Since November 2015, large parts of the country have been experiencing very low temperatures of up to minus 40 degree Celsius, followed by heavy snowfall that has covered around 90 percent of Mongolia's territory. This has resulted in sharp reductions in plant life used for livestock feed and rendering pastures — and even basic services such as transportation — largely inaccessible.Data from January listed 211 out of 339 districts in Mongolia as suffering or are entering near-dzud conditions. Almost a quarter of a million people — roughly 40 percent of the country's herder population — has also been identified living in high-risk zones or in isolated mountain ranges where accessibility is an issue. Livestock casualties are spiralling to the hundreds of thousands and the numbers are expected to further increase in the coming months as conditions worsen.GRASS ICED OVER LOST FOR ANIMALSCows herding in mostly snow-covered areas in rural Mongolia. Photo by: Lean Santos / DevexPersonal crusadeWhile the government has been preparing for dzud over the past few months, the negative effects of climate change remain glaring — especially among herder families tucked deep away in the snow-capped mountains of the country.“Herders and livestock were used to warmer winters … so now with colder winters, it makes it hard to cope with the temperature,” Tsedensednom, governor of Ulziit district, located more than 600 kilometers southwest of the capital city of Ulaanbaatar, told Devex.“I'm not a scientific expert, but in my personal experience, the changes [to the environment] are evident,” he added. “When I was a kid, the grass was so high you couldn't see calves. Now grass only grows 10 centimeters, or not at all.”COMMENTSJames MatkinMongolia's brutal Zud winters with temperatures in the minus 50 F. are natural disasters that happen every few decades documented by the Ministry of Environment from 72 BC. "As can be seen from the historical sources, zud extended to more than a half of the country’s territory were recorded during the years of 72 B.C., 1308, 1337, 1340, 1450, 1608, 1626, 1821, 1825, 1839, 1884, 1875, 1891, 1901, 1935, 1944, 1949, 1953, 1956, 1963, 1966, 1967, 1987, 1992 A.D. Surveys conducted since 1640 in the eastern regions of Mongolia (former Tsetsenkhan, Tusheet khan aimags) have shown that zud covering over 75% of the territory of the country occur once in 20-22 year-period and winters when zud did not occur even in one summer are very rare. However, zud can happen in any part of the country." The Zud has nothing to do with climate change APOCHOLYPSE from the hypothesis of carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are making the globe too hot. Santos sadly misinforms his readers on the history of climate in Mongolia. Mongolia's frigid climate getting colder is if anything an example of global cooling not global warming. Why would governments demonize of life giving CO2 seeking to reduce emissions that today fertalize trees and plants in Mongolia and around the world? The folly of making the climate colder is mind boggling especially as millions of cows freeze to death in Mongolia.TomRude March 7, 2016 at 3:49 pm Lean Alfred Santos is right: the climate is changing. But like some, he’d be well inspired to understand meteorology before blabbing such ridiculous claim that it is a result of global warming.The mean annual surface pressure in the Gobi desert has been rising since the 1960s while the temperature has steadily declined. (CDC/NCEP-NCAR data in Leroux 2010 page 382).That means more powerful anticyclonic conditions are affecting the region, not because air comes down from the sky, but because of colder travelling polar air masses descending southward to the Himalayas, hence the summer drought, the low temperatures in winter and occasionally some heavy precipitation during transitional season. If anything these conditions are compatible with those experienced during cooling periods.And yes, warming during summer and extreme cold are of course compatible statements since both result of those anticyclonic conditions.https://www.devex.com/news/for-mongolians-climate-change-is-as-personal-as-it-gets-87832Mongolia: Deadly Cold, Heavy Snow blamed on Global WarmingEric Worrall / March 7, 2016The harsh conditions are obviously no laughing matter for the Mongolian people, who are obviously suffering severe hardship, but the attempt to frame this as a problem caused by warming is more than a little ridiculous. Still, perhaps Mongolian authorities are taking their lead from US Climate Scientists, who frequently claimCOMMENTSTonybI still can’t tell the difference between Global Cooling caused by Global Warming and Global Cooling caused by Global Cooling.·MarcusMarch 7, 2016 at 10:34 am..Dear Margaret, it’s quite simple…Poor countries that are controlled by dictators claim Global cooling is caused by Glo.Bull warming, thus, they get money from the evil Americans…Northern Canadians, such as myself, just want Glo.Bull Warming to be real, so I can stop freezing my nookies off !oCrispin in Waterloo but really in BishkekMarch 7, 2016 at 10:48 amMongolia has a vibrant democracy and different parties have been elected from time to time. It is being hammered by the drop in the price of commodities (coal and copper) and of course, resurgent cold.It is now quite a bit warmer in the capital than it was 60 years ago, but the record low was set only 15 years ago: -53 C (in the city).The brutal cold has been there since the Little Ice Age. It was much warmer in the time of Chingis Khan.Believe it or not the EU gave Mongolia 50 windmills to help generate power. They are under the flight path from Beijing to the east of Ulaanbaatar. Mongolia has a billion tons of coal. They also have the cleanest burning coal stoves available. All they have to do is build more of them.It is sad that this natural calamity which occurs from time to time is being blamed on human CO2 emissions.https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/03/07/mongolia-deadly-cold-heavy-snow-blamed-on-global-warming/

UKRAINE MH17 AN OBVIOUS CIA NATO FALSE FLAG The world has seen all this theatre before. We saw it with the false flag Gulf of Tonkin incident during the Vietnam War. We saw it with the CIA-Saudi faked Sarin gas episode in 2013 that brought the world to the brink of a world war.We saw it in the fake Niger uranium yellowcake episode that was used to bully a US Congress into war against Saddam Hussein’s Iraq in 2003—the so-called Weapons of Mass Destruction that were never found. The world saw it again in the frantic efforts by the heavily corrupted US State Department and elements of the CIA to try to blame Vladimir Putin’s Russia for allegedly giving the east Ukraine separatist rebels highly sophisticated Russian anti-aircraft weapons allegedly used to shoot down the Malaysia Airlines plane.Putin, so charges Secretary of State John Kerry on five (!) US talk shows on July 20, is de facto guilty for not controlling the eastern Ukraine rebels. The proof of it all? “Social media,” according to the State Department official press spokesperson.The good news for those who are not eager to see a World War III pitting China-Russia and the BRICS against a US-led NATO and turning Western Europe into a devastated Trümmerfeld for the third time in a century, is that this attempt to blame Putin’s Russia it backfired.Unanswered questionsOne of the most shocking features of the heavily bias Western mainstream media coverage of the MH17 event is the utter lack of serious, cautious investigative journalism of the variety which used to exist only a few years ago. Rather than err on the side of caution before rushing to judgment in a situation that could easily trigger a new Cold War or worse, CNN, the New York Times, Washington Post, and most EU media including German simply quote Kiev government officials, among them the neo-Nazi ones, as if they were credible. Real inquiry must look at the unanswered questions.First we should begin with several very vital unanswered questions before making judgment what happened to MH17 Boeing 777 aircraft on July 17.Number one is why Kiev Air Traffic Control, a part of the Ukraine Ministry of Aviation, ordered the MH17 to deviate from its scheduled route that avoided the war zone in eastern Ukraine? According to the initial reports of FlightAware - Flight Tracker / Flight Status / Flight Tracking which tracks all civilian aircraft online, on Thursday, July 17 Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 Flight MH17 from Amsterdam’s Schiphol Airport to Kuala Lumpur Malaysia, deviated significantly in altitude and route from all other commercial flights, which since the outbreak of the civil war in eastern Ukraine in April have flown south of the conflict region.The key questions before giving blame to anyone, which have been completely ignored by the Ukrainian government in Kiev, by the Obama Administration in Washington, by most Western media, are why did the pilot divert from his usual flight plan? Why did he fly above restricted airspace? And just what, if any instructions, did Kiev air control give the pilot in the minutes before the tragic explosion? FlightAware - Flight Tracker / Flight Status / Flight Tracking compiled by from Vagelis Karmiros who collated all the recent MH17 flight paths as tracked by FlightAware and shows that while all ten most recent paths pass safely well south of the Donetsk region, and cross the zone above the Sea of Azov, it was only the July 17 MH17 tragic flight that passed straight overhead Donetsk.Curiously, after the FlightAware data was initially published, the site changed its version of the trajectory of MH17. Were they pressured to do so?Kievs fake ‘smoking gun’ videoMost of the Obama Administration arguments about who is responsible for MH17 rely on citing Kiev government officials. Yet they have lied repeatedly since their US-backed coup d’état on February 22, 2014, brought them illegally into power at the barrel of a gun. Just hours after the news of the downing of the plane, Ukrainian Secret Intelligence released what it claimed was “proof” that MH17 was shot down by Russian-trained separatists under direct orders from Russia. The 2:23 minute YouTube video purported to prove that "militants of "Bes" group using a Russian anti-aircraft missile shot down a Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 passenger jet heading from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur.Ukrainian intelligence presented what it alleged were recorded conversations between a pro-Russian separatist and his coordinator Vasyl Geranin, said to be a Colonel of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces. They talk about the “downing of a jet.” There is no distinction whether this is a civilian or a military jet, and may well refer to a Ukrainian Su-25 which was shot down some hours earlier in the civil war fighting.In the YouTube video there is no way to prove the audio was not simply two actors in a studio reading a script given them. The entire Kiev “smoking gun” video vanished from the media when diligent IT researchers discovered the time/date stamp showed the video was put online on 2014-07-16 at 19:10 Kiev time, a full day BEFORE the downing of MH17. Ooops! Back to the Langley drawing board, boys.So much for the credibility of the Kiev government, which has lied about pretty much everything since day one in office.US NATO maneuvers simultaneous.Now we come to a highly interesting coincidence. Just as was the case during the World Trade Center attacks of September, 2001 and the so-called Boston Bombers attack and numerous other terror incidences, there were relevant NATO-Ukraine maneuvers taking place on the days before and right after the MH17 event.According to Washington NSA “whistleblower” Wayne Madsen, NATO and the Ukraine military were involved in ten days of joint military “exercises,” code-named Sea Breeze,” that included the use of electronic warfare and electronic intelligence aircraft such as the Boeing EA-18G Growler and the Boeing E3 Sentry Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS). Sea Breeze, according to Madsen, included the AEGIS-class guided missile cruiser USS Vela Gulf. From the Black Sea, “the Vela Gulf was able to track Malaysia Airlines MH17 over the Black Sea as well as any missiles fired at the plane.” As well, US AWACS electronic intelligence (ELINT) aircraft were also flying over the Black Sea region at the time of the MH17 fly-over of Ukraine. Growler aircraft have the capability to jam radar systems in all surface-to-air threats.The NATO exercise coincided with the July 17 MH17 downing only 40 miles from Russia’s border. “NATO ships and aircraft had the Donetsk and Luhansk regions under total radar and electronic surveillance. One very curious footnote is the recurring central role of Vice President Joe Biden in the Ukraine events. Biden has been personally involved since the beginning of the protests. And unusually, it was not NATO but the website operated by Vice President Joe Biden's office that first announced US Sea Breeze and Rapid Trident II military maneuvers on May 21, 2014.As well, in a brazen conflict-of-interest, Biden's son, Hunter Biden, is a newly-named director of the Ukrainian natural gas and oil company Burisma Holdings, Ltd., owned by Ihor Kolomoisky, the Ukrainian-Israeli mafia oligarch, whose is known as the “Chameleon” The burning question is why has the US Government not released the exact tracking images for flight MH17 on July 17 to show precisely when it flew and from precisely where it was hit? Could it be they are afraid to reveal what they have for fear it would boomerang on Washington’s war hawks?Not only do the US agencies have satellite data on the MH17 flight, they also have precise images of the likely rocket missile battery that fired the missile that destroyed MH17. According to award-winning former Newsweek journalist Robert Perry, one reliable whistleblower source told Parry that, “US intelligence agencies do have detailed satellite images of the likely missile battery that launched the fateful missile, but the battery appears to have been under the control of Ukrainian government troops dressed in what look like Ukrainian uniforms.”Could this be the reason why even until today, the Obama Administration has not released detailed evidence to prove their assertions that Ukrainian “rebels backed by Moscow” fired the deadly rocket? It might show in fact the opposite that it was Kiev-tied forces. US State Department changes story**The official propaganda war against Russia on the MH17 downing is being run, just as was the Maidan Square coup, by a cabal of neoconservatives in the US State Department. Victoria Nuland’s Deputy Press Spokesperson, a former CIA press spokesperson, Marie Harf, in a July 21 Washington press briefing, faced unusually persistent and critical questions from several journalists.They asked why, if Secretary John Kerry and the US Government possessed “irrefutable” evidence of Russian and rebel involvement in MH17 , they are refusing to make it public as the US did in earlier instances such as the 1962 Cuba Missile Crisis. Defensive and irritated by the questions, Harf retorted, referring to July 20 statements by Kerry she declared, “our assessment that this was an SA-11 fired from Russian-backed, separatist-controlled territory.” But, incredibly, what was the proof the journalists were demanding? Harf replied, “that we know – we saw in social media afterwards, we saw videos, we saw photos of the pro-Russian separatists bragging about shooting down an aircraft…” Excuse me, ladies and gentlemen for gasping. “We saw it in social media afterwards…we saw photos of pro-Russian separatists bragging…” Has the CIA developed talking photographs too?With Russian government and military intelligence releasing more of its own evidence, the Obama Administration has gone into a frantic “damage control” mode. At 5:57pm Washington time on July 22, they decided to organize an anonymous press briefing by “unnamed senior officials.”“Unnamed senior officials” usually refers to very high level cabinet or assistant secretary level officials. Several “unnamed senior US officials”held a press briefing in Washington. The US intelligence officials stated that while the Russians have been arming separatists in eastern Ukraine, “the US had no direct evidence that the missile used to shoot down the passenger jet came from Russia.” This was new from Washington.The US intelligence officials went on to say they didn’t know who fired the missile or whether any Russian operatives were present at the missile launch. They were “not certain” that the missile crew was trained in Russia…In terms of who fired the missile, they stated, "We don't know a name, we don't know a rank and we're not even 100 percent sure of a nationality…" Looking like frauds they obviously are“senior” US intelligence officials, when asked for details on their evidence, repeated the State Department mantra of Marie Harf.The intelligence “seniors” had the chutzpah to state that they were, “relying in part on social media postings and videos made public in recent days by the Ukrainian government,” even though they openly admitted that they have not been able to authenticate all of it. For example, they cited a video of a missile launcher said to have been crossing the Russian border after the launch, appearing to be missing a missile. But later, under questioning, the officials acknowledged they had not yet verified that the video was exactly what it purported to be.That last bit of the press briefing is astonishing because it meant that some briefing officer, perhaps CIA or State Department, briefed the President of the United States (who presumably has little time to do his own investigations…) who then went on nationwide TV on July 21 to charge that the Malaysia Airlines plane, "was shot down over territory controlled by Russian-backed separatists in Ukraine."He also said Russia has both trained the separatists and "armed them with military equipment and weapons, including anti-aircraft weapons." That speech brought the entire world one giant step closer to a Cold War with Russia that easily could become a hot war. A day later, somebody very senior inside the US Administration apparently decided to de-escalate the confrontation massively. *** The most obvious questions are the important ones. Why shot down over Kiev? Why now? Who’s got something to hide and who is specializes in endless psy-ops and false-flag stunts? why did the AUSTRALIAN government sign a non- disclosure act, not to release the real findings to the public.?The obvious answer is the people who started the Kiev coup in the first place.The Russians did it” story has crashed and burned. The media overkill…”killed it”, all of them playing off the same talking points notes, no one even bothering to ask the most basic investigative journalist questions like “Show me the evidence you have.”Who do you know, what country, that has a track record of pulling that kind of media and sock puppet politician coordination off whenever they want to, having them all singing like they are in a choir? Amazing how the propaganda becomes fact when reported by the corrupt fake news globalist elite controlled establishment press. 'Common Sence says this terrorist act was a pretext for firstly intensifying sanctions on Russia, secondly to show the world that Russia is a barbarian country and thirdly to strengthen the presence of Nato in Europe, particularly Ukraine.' : Real Evidence Points to US-Kiev Cover-up of Failed False Flag.You be the judge. Do your own researches and then judge again. Believe nobody until you collected your own knowledge.Question your sources and the sources, with which you check your sources. Come to know about the rules of propaganda. Dont be the majority of the sheep that will BLINDLY follow and accept what is told to by the mainstream media, or corrupt polititions.The US government has lied to the world and it's people so many times that even if they are correct on something like this, how could we believe them? There is documentation showing their government's willingness to carry out false flags to start wars. The wild conspiracy theories that were pushed out of the US State Department, and the government in Kiev, Ukraine, which were being repeated by CNN, BBC, FOX-NewsCorp, ABC, CBS and NBC…WERE A COMPLETE FARCE.The real evidence about MH17 is obvious under wraps as it proves the mainstream western story a propagandist agenda tool. After experts reviewing the evidence, all indicators points to the downing of MH17 as a highly coordinated, but failed false flag event. There is exactly zero chance that MH17 was shot down deliberately by pro-Russian rebels. , They had nothing to gain by hitting that plane.