Activities Specific Balance Confidence Scale: Fill & Download for Free

Let me break down my current level of confidence in the various global warming arguments.Below are several statements that global warming debaters might make. I offer my “level of confidence” in each statement. “100%” means that I absolutely believe that statement. “0%” means that I believe the statement is totally false.This way, you can see much more specifically where we agree and where we disagree.Please feel free to play along — to note your own personal level of confidence with each statement, and in this way we can then also see how far away we are/ :)“Temperatures have risen in the recent past”(My level of confidence: 98%)“Temperatures are higher than ever before”(My level of confidence: 1%)“More than 0% of the recent rise in temperature has been caused by mankind’s population growth and decreasing poverty”(My level of confidence: 97%)“More than 50% …”(My level of confidence: 42%)“More than 90% …”(My level of confidence: 2%)“Without changing anything, future temperatures will:… continue to increase”(My level of confidence: 88%)… accelerate”(My level of confidence: 62%)… catastrophically run-away”(My level of confidence: 12%)… flatten/asymptote”(My level of confidence: 9%)… hit a local high and return down due to a negative feedback loop”(My level of confidence: 4%)“We know enough to time accurately future global temperatures”(My level of confidence: 6%)“Climate models are accurate predictions of future earth temperatures out 100 years”(My level of confidence: 5%)“Climate alarmists’ past predications have been largely true”(My level of confidence: 2%)“Climate models already contain all major variables and interactions that would impact greatly their predictive abilities”(My level of confidence: 5%)“The value of major constants that are already included in today’s climate models are known reliably, assuring greatly their predictive contribution”(My level of confidence: 22%)“The Point of No Return is near”(My level of confidence: 2%)“Without changing anything, the net economic impact of possible future warming…. will be overall negative for humanity”(My level of confidence: 56%)… will be overall catastrophic to humanity”(My level of confidence: 12%)… will be overall net positive for humanity”(My level of confidence: 6%)“Today’s econometric models can accurately forecast the net economic impacts of possible future warming out 10-100 years”(My level of confidence: 0%)“Future innovations and industries are likely to ameliorate, or even take advantage of, possible future warming, but are largely unpredictable”(My level of confidence: 94%)“The primary driver of future global warming will be:… the West acting fat and arrogant”(My level of confidence: 1%)… third world countries trying to escape starvation and poverty”(My level of confidence: 85%)“The best, most rapid solution is to:… severely restrict human wealth production”(My level of confidence: 0%)… severely restrict human wealth production in the West”(My level of confidence: 4%)… severely restrict human wealth production in third world countries”(My level of confidence: 15%)“Restricting wealth production in third world countries will lead to mass starvation and death of third world poor”(My level of confidence: 95%)“The net impact of severely curtailing human wealth production will be less harmful to humans than the net impact of a warmer earth”(My level of confidence: 8%)“Curtailing human wealth production will:…. produce fewer deaths than global warming will”(My level of confidence: 8%)…. producing less starvation than global warming will”(My level of confidence: 13%)…. producing less human misery than global warming will”(My level of confidence: 20%)“Severely curtailing human wealth production does not require massive authoritarian take-over of almost all human activity”(My level of confidence: 1%)“The net impact of an authoritarian takeover of all human wealth production is less harmful than the net impact of a warmer earth”(My level of confidence: 1%)“A ruling class can be trusted to severely curtail human wealth production wisely, efficiently, compassionately, altruistically, effectively, and correctly”(My level of confidence: 1%)“The coercive apparatus of massive authoritarianism will not be subverted by a future ruling class for incredibly evil, inhumane purposes”(My level of confidence: 0%)“The net impact of a warmer earth is worse for humanity than the cumulative net impacts of:Increasing human poverty, plusplacing all humanity under authoritarian rule, plusfuture subversions of that authoritarian power to do evil”(My level of confidence: 0%)“Global warming research should be directed and funded centrally by politicians and government bureaucrats”(My level of confidence: 2%)“Politicians and government bureaucrats will not use research dollars to reward cronies and punish enemies”(My level of confidence: 0%)“Politicians and government bureaucrats will not try to tip the scales towards predictions that increase its power and plunder”(My level of confidence: 0%)“Decentralizing global warming research away from politicians and government bureaucrats will produce more trusted, more balanced, more innovative, less captured, more effective research”(My level of confidence: 98%)“97% of all climate scientists agree with all aspects of global warming alarmism”(My level of confidence: 0%)“97% of certain published authors in certain pro-global warming publications agree that historically temperatures have risen”(My level of confidence: 100%)“97% of published authors on global warming are paid and published primarily if they agree with global warming dogma”(My level of confidence: 98%)“Attacks of “heresy” is the single greatest threat to climate science”(My level of confidence: 100%)“Government control of research is the second greatest threat”(My level of confidence: 95%)“Some global warming scientists who might want to express much more more balanced, less alarmist views fear for their livelihood, reputation, and even safety, and thus are effectively silenced”(My level of confidence: 93%)“Science is a process of repeated hypothesis and testing, not shutting down thought for tactical political advantage”(My level of confidence: 100%)“Politicians and government bureaucrats are sincerely much more concerned about the impact of warming on humanity than they are with using a “crisis” to capture additional political power to expand their power and profit over every one”(My level of confidence: 3%)What is your level of confidence in the above statements about global warming?See Related:1388: The reason for the passion of global warming “deniers”1740: What is the libertarian solution to climate change?0302: Parable: Which fools dismiss global warming?0302: Parable: Which fools dismiss global warming?0535: How can libertarians be so unscientific as to deny climate change?0535: How can libertarians be so unscientific as to deny climate change?→ More essays on <Global Warming and Environment> by Dennis→ Return to the <Table of Contents> of Dennis’ Libertarian Musings-> Dennis’ introduction to libertarianism<, Epistem, GlobWarm,>

(Note: I recently wrote a 5,000+ word guide to confidence on my website and I’ve used some of that content to answer your question here. Enjoy!)The first and most important confidence hack is to realize that you are not entitled to feeling confident.True self-confidence and skill-specific confidence are built and earned through months and years of practice and developing high levels of competence.It’s the result of deliberate practice, the conscious expansion of your comfort zone, and more failures than you probably want to accept.Fighter pilots aren’t just born confident in their ability to maneuver fighter jets at high speeds. They become confident by practicing their craft for years.Successful entrepreneurs aren’t just naturally confident in their business acumen. They become confident by starting, failing, and scaling businesses until they have a system that works.Competence breeds confidence. And if you want true self-confidence, the only way to earn it is through years of developing your competence in important areas of life.No one can “Give” you confidence.Nothing will “Make” you a confident person except for action.Yes…There are a number of psychological and physiological techniques that you can use to instantly increase your baseline confidence levels.And I’m going to share them here.However, developing deep and unshakable confidence in yourself, your worth, and your ability will take time and hard work.You cannot become a truly confident person overnight or even over the course of a few months.You can’t fool your brain into permanent confidence and there are no shortcuts to dramatically increase your self-esteem.If you are willing to accept this fact and actively work to become a more confident person day in and day out, then these “Hacks” will give you the unfair advantage that you’re seeking.Sound good? Then let’s dive in.9 Self-Confidence Practices to Unlock Your Inner Badass1. Stand with Your Shoulders Back and Master Your StateI know this might sound silly or “Woo woo”, but there is a significant amount of scientific evidence to back this tactic up.Studies have shown that people practicing good posture feel more confident in their own abilities and more certain of positive outcomes.In fact, a study conducted by researchers at Colombia and Harvard University found that sitting or standing in a “Power Position” for only two minutes can increase your Testosterone levels by more than 20%!Researchers also noticed a significant decrease in the amount of cortisol (the primary stress hormone) present in test subjects, indicating that proper posture can actually reduce stress and anxiety surrounding specific tasks.And these results were recorded after only 2-minutes!Imagine how you would feel about yourself if holding your head high, keeping your shoulders back and your spine straight was simply a way of life?I can tell you from personal experience… You feel pretty damn amazing.Before you move on to the rest of the list, I want you to take action on this tactic right now!Seriously…Set a 2-minute timer, stand up, shake your body out, and put your hands out to the side like n eagle in flight. Pound your chest, pull your shoulders back, and smile.I’ll wait…… You good?How do you feel now?If you actually took the time to complete the exercise then I have no doubt that you are already experiencing greater levels of confidence.This tactic is simple and easily applicable to everyday life.Set a reminder on your phone to go off at random times throughout the day so that you stay cognizant of how your posture affects your mood.2. Exercise on a Regular BasisAs we’ve already established, true lasting confidence is the result of core competence, not just quick tricks and easy fixes.And one of the most important areas of competence is your physical fitness.On the most primal level, developing a strong and agile body is essential for survival… and your 10,000-year-old brain knows this.Your brain is constantly on the lookout for potential threats to your survival and safety, and when your body is weak and incapable of dealing or delivering damage, your brain knows this and encourages you to play it safe.In other words, being weak makes you less confident.This should seem like a no-brainer, but in our overly PC culture, facts like these aren’t always welcomed with open arms.Studies have shown a strong correlation between regular exercise and high levels of self-esteem, confidence, and general satisfaction with life.… And it makes sense.When you regularly train your body, eat good foods, and take the time to properly recover, your neurotransmitters will be optimized for happiness and esteem. You will literally make yourself happier.As you become stronger, more muscular, and more capable of handling demanding situations, you will (consciously and subconsciously) become more certain of yourself and more confident in your ability to overcome adversity.Luckily, this doesn’t have to be too difficult…According to the NSCA (National Strength and Conditioning Association) for new lifters, a 3-day full body resistance training regimen is the ideal way to pack on as much muscle as possible as quickly as possible.Each session you are going to do 3 sets of a pulling exercise (like a chin-up or row), 3 sets of a pushing exercise (like bench or military press), and 3 sets of a lower body exercise (like squats or deadlifts).You can add in a few isolation exercises like bicep curls, farmer carries, or calf raises to help bring up lagging body parts, but you don’t need to do anything more than that. (You can find a more detailed guide here)Seriously…These workouts should take you no more than 45 minutes per session or 2.5 hours a week.I recommend that you supplement your resistance training with 1-2 sessions of BJJ or boxing each week.There’s something about regularly training in full contact sports that increase your confidence in a way that nothing else can.I trained BJJ for years and can say, with no hesitation, that it is one of the primary reasons I enjoy the high levels of confidence I have today.So keep it simple and keep it easy.Train at least 3 times a week. Box at least once a week. Sprint when you feel like it.If you do these three things, I promise you that you will experience a dramatic increase in your confidence levels over the span of only a few months.3. Appearances DO Matter… So Act Like ItDid you know that 58% of all CEOs in America are 6′ or taller? But the average height for a male in the U.S. is only 5′ 9″.Did you know that statistically speaking, when a woman gains more than 60 lbs. of unwanted weight, her wages will drop by more than 9%?Did you know that several studies have shown an inextricable link between the clothes that you wear and your self-reported (and performance-based) levels of confidence and self-esteem?I know that none of these things sound fair.They aren’t nice to point out. You can’t control your height. Women shouldn’t be paid less because they weigh more.And the clothes that you can afford shouldn’t have much bearing on your financial and personal success.Unfortunately… They do.But instead of complaining, moaning, and whining about how unfair the world is, we must work within the confines of reality in order to achieve our biggest dreams.… In this case, that means taking pride in your appearance and optimizing the looks your momma gave you.Although diving into the nitty-gritty details of dressing better and caring for your personal hygiene is beyond the scope of this article (I have a great interview with Alpha M. if you want tactical information for looking and dressing better), it doesn’t take much to get started.Simply getting your clothes tailored, showering every morning, following a simple skincare routine, and dressing in more professional attire is all that you need to instantly feel more confident about who you are and how the world sees you.4. Go on a Social Media Fast to Beat the Comparison Trap at its Own GameOne of the biggest reasons that most people are so unhappy and lacking in confidence today is because of comparison.Everything in our lives has become about comparison.We compare our looks to the fitness models on Instagram.We compare our bank accounts to entrepreneurial veterans showing off their latest toys.We compare our love lives with guys like Dan Bilzerian who are surrounded by (indirectly) paid models.We compare EVERYTHING that we have to what someone else has.And social media is at the heart of this disease.Studies have shown that chronic social media usage can lead to:DepressionJealousy and bitternessLower levels of mental well beingFeelings of inadequacy and isolationTrust me, I know lots of those guys personally.What social media doesn’t show you is the work that it took to achieve the lifestyle that’s being shown off.It doesn’t show the rejections those men went through before they became social powerhouses.It doesn’t show the late nights or hustling by themselves.It doesn’t show the hours in the gym or the meticulous meal prepping.It doesn’t show the blood, sweat, and tears required to get to the level where they are.So what’s the solution?Simple…Get off of social media entirely!Use it for business if you must. But deactivate your personal accounts, turn off notifications and delete the apps from your phone.Do it RIGHT NOW!Social media isn’t helping you stay connected with your friends. (According to science)It’s keeping you depressed, isolated, and feeling like you aren’t good enough.If you’re struggling to feel and act confident, then social media must go.5. Affirm Your AwesomenessI know that affirmations sound like a steaming load of new age bull crap…But they aren’t.In fact, psychologists and neuroscientists have conducted several studies using FMRI’s and other brain imaging technology that has shown a significant benefit to positive self-talk.Affirmations literally rewire your brain to be more future-oriented and optimistic.If you do them right…Whether you realize it or not, you are ALREADY using affirmations each and every day whether verbally or non-verbally.Everyone has an inner voice providing dry witty commentary on their daily lives.The only question is: What is that voice saying?If you are suffering from low levels of confidence and self-esteem then I can all but promise that your self-talk is probably riddled with negative loops, pessimistic sayings, and general b.s.If you have high levels of esteem and confidence, then I can all but promise you that the way you talk to yourself sounds similar to the way you’d talk to a treasured friend.Over the next few weeks, I want to challenge you to rewrite and consciously select the affirmations you repeat over your life.Eradicate the negative self-talk and replace it with uplifting sayings that set you up for success.I like to spend 5-10 minutes every morning repeating a small handful of affirmations to myself while I shower.A few of my favorites are:I’ve got thisLife is happening for me, not to meI am filled with unlimited potentialI can achieve anything that I truly desireEvery day I become stronger, smarter, and betterYou can even create goal-oriented affirmations to help you focus on specific monetary, physical, or relational goals.Before you move on to the next section, take 5 minutes to write down 5 new affirmations that you will say to yourself on a daily basis.I’ll be here when you get back.6. Overcome Your Fears by Starting Small and Scaling UpRome wasn’t built in a day and your confidence account will not go from $0 to $1,000,000 overnight.However, with a little bit of intentionality, you can dramatically increase the balance of your confidence account VERY quickly.How?By overcoming your fears in a linear fashion.We all have things that we are afraid of.Whether it’s writing public blog posts for all to see, being honest about our opinions and beliefs, starting a business, talking to beautiful women (or good-looking men), or suffering some sort of public embarrassment.We all have fears.And the quickest way to increase your confidence and overcome these fears is to find the smallest first step… And take it.Here’s what I mean.If you have crippling social anxiety and you want to become the next Casanova, it’s not going to happen overnight.You won’t magically go up to the hottest girl at the bar and just sweep her off her feet.If you try that, you’ll choke on your words, sweat profusely, and make a total fool of yourself (trust me, I’ve been there).Instead, you need to gradually build up to these big fears.In the example above, instead of approaching a total stranger at the bar, go buy a coffee and ask the cute barista at Starbucks how her day was.Once you’ve done that, go to a local Meetup and introduce yourself to one attractive person.From there, you can try taking a single Salsa class downtown.Then try your first “Cold Approach” at a bookstore or coffee shop.Then start going out with your socially savvy friends.And THEN you will be ready to start going up to the most beautiful woman at the club.By slowly exposing yourself to the things you fear you will develop unshakable confidence and become someone capable of crushing any goal that they set.Take whatever you are scared of, break it down into the smallest possible part, and then take action.TODAY!7. Leverage 30 Day Challenges to Boost Your Confidence and Break Free From Your Comfort ZoneAn excellent way to build your confidence and expand your comfort zone when you don’t have any clearly defined “Fears” to overcome is a 30-day challenge.I’ve done dozens of these over the course of my life and every single one helped me become a stronger, more grounded, confident man.30-day challenges work exceptionally well because they help you to gamify the expansion of your comfort zone.Instead of changing something about yourself or your life permanently, you simply challenge yourself to do something uncomfortable for a short period of time.I recommend that you find 3-4 friends who are interested in doing these challenges with you (or even strangers you meet online) and set a wager.Put $50-$100 in a pot and agree to forfeit your money if you fail the challenge.This will put tangible stakes on the challenge and keep you accountable to doing what you said you would do.There are a plethora of challenges that you can try out, but a few of my favorites are:Cold showersNo porn/masturbation100 Pullups, Pushups, and Bodyweight SquatsMeditation2-mile runNo sugarNo alcohol or drugsNo TVThe list goes on and on.Pick a challenge that seems fun to you and go with it.I promise you will feel more confident and self-assured at the end of the 30 days.8. Spend Time With Crazy-Confident PeopleWe’ve all heard the saying:You are the average of the 5 people you spend time with mostIt’s been beaten to death in the world of personal development for a good reason.… It’s truePeople underestimate the impact that their circle of influence has on their lives.Few people realize just how important it is to spend time with empowering and uplifting people.I can tell you, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that upgrading my social circle was one of the best decisions I ever made.When I started making friends with confident and inspiring people, I naturally became more confident and inspired.It worked for me and it will work for you.If you’ve been struggling to feel confident, I want to challenge you to take a look at your social circle.How much time do you spend with people who are playing life at a level 10/10?How often do you hang out with other guys who inspire you to be better?If you aren’t intentionally cultivating relationships with amazing people, your quality of life and your confidence will suffer.Right now, I want you to pick up your phone, find the most confident person you know, and send them a message.Tell them that you are looking to level up your life and would like to grab a coffee to pick their brain and ask a few questions.The high performers in your life will be flattered.9. Pick a Crazy Goal and Give it Everything You’ve GotNothing will have a more positive impact on your confidence account than setting and achieving big goals.In my own life, my core confidence was developed by three major achievmentsQuitting my job, starting a business, and growing it to 7-figuresOvercoming my social anxiety and building an abundant dating lifeOvercoming chronic health issues and building the body of my dreamsThe pain and adversity I endured to achieve those goals instilled in me an unbreakable confidence in my ability to make sh*t happen and live the life of my dreams.But it wasn’t easy.It took effort.It took blood, sweat, and tears.And it took time.I could write an entire article on this topic alone (and maybe I will).But for now, I will keep things simple and give you an action step that you can implement RIGHT NOW.Take 15 minutes after you finish this article and examine your life.Rate yourself on a scale of 1-10 in your health, wealth, relationships, and personal growth.Then, pick your weakest area and set a massive goal.Maybe you want to launch a 6-figure business or gain 30 lbs. of muscle.Maybe you want to rid yourself of social anxiety and become an international playboy (no judgment here).Or maybe you just want to get out of debt and read more books.Whatever your goal, find something that scares you and makes you feel a little bit intimidated and then commit to achieving it.Once you start down the rabbit hole of setting and achieving big goals, your life will never be the same.You will feel more confident, alive, and on purpose.And every area of your life will change for the better.So set your goal and go get after it.Your life depends on it.

How exactly did Mercantilist economists/economic thinkers/policymakers define "wealth", if they thought the world had a finite supply of wealth? Surely they saw things like ships being built, so they had some idea of value being created.There’s not way to know “exactly” what they thought, because “mercantilism” is a broad narrative that was applied to them much later by people who came after the mercantilists.And only after late mercantilists started writing down what they actually thought. But not in any coherent economic theory; they tended to write about specific pieces of national finance, lending, production, etc. Those disparate writings were later summarized by people like Adam Smith. Which ultimately began mercantalism’s descent over a span of roughly 60 years—and (interestingly) simultaneously saw the elimination of slavery in most of the then-developed nations.You must understand that money was very different in that time period, and most circulating money was in specie (i.e. precious metal). Accountants kept their books in terms of this money. So how do you get more money? Obvious: get more of the stuff that is money.Contrary to some over-simplified statements, they generally didn’t think that more metal in a treasury vault meant more wealth. But that the money would be in circulation, and therefore, create more wealth.But most people today can easily see that this would quickly deflate your money—especially in a time when international travel and payments were extremely slow.)Simultaneously, mercantalists would promote protectionism on domestic production. e.g. tariffs, import restrictions. They felt this would protect this growing industries, which would eventually lead to more production, and more wealth. And that finished goods were more valuable than raw materials.(But, most people today quickly realize that you’re not really growing those industries at zero cost. You’re just shifting costs to other people, and losing “value” in the process.)This last one is something people still argue about on the international scale today.But here, we have generally this arbitrary hierarchy of value:Money (precious metal) is most valuableFinished goods are valuableRaw materials are least valuableBased upon various writings, you mercantilism can be summarized by the following general principles.All of a country's land should be used for production.A large population of workers should be encouraged.Exports of money (precious metals) should be prohibitedRaw materials should go to domestic production, and never be exported. (Because we can convert low-value into higher value, and export the higher value finished goods)Finished goods should be exported, because they are more valuable.Foreign imports of finished goods should be discouraged.When foreign imports were needed, they should try to be obtained in-kind (for raw materials) instead of moneyForeign imports should be limited to raw materials that can be finished domestically, so that imported finished goods will not interfere with domestic marketsIf goods are produced domestically, foreign goods should not be allowed to be imported.Fundamentally, mercantalism resulted from an inability to see that the balance sheet of the government is not synonymous with the wealth of an entire nation. And to ignore how wealth is created, from real-world prices and supplies.When governments view the government’s books and what it controls as the nation, governments favor their poistions—confident they’re doing the right thing—while the rest of society often suffers.And that, is the core of what Adam Smith argued in Wealth of Nations: the government is not society, not very good at planning these commercial activities, and the world will not fall apart if the government stops doing them.