Individual Sign-In Sheet: Fill & Download for Free

Honestly, there isn’t one that is better than another sport. This would come down to what sport YOU yourself are more knowledgeable in and your confidence in your ability to bet the scores of these matchups. Personally, I believe that the NBA is the “easiest” to bet over/unders. And from what I’ve seen, many people I know bet that for NBA games. I’m much more apt to bet spreads in NFL and NCAAF. Honestly in 11 years, I’ve only bet two NCAAF over/unders. This is mainly due to my focus and overall high levels of success in betting the spreads (either whole game or 1st/2nd half, etc), but there is some level of my inability to grasp the full understanding of how over/unders are set and how to best bet them based on probability and profitability. I just never seem to have a high enough level of confidence in my total scoring estimates to place quality wagers on them. I don’t like to bet any amount of money as a ““throw away”. My wagers range from $350–750 (usually) for tennis and golf wagers; $500–2500 for NFL and NBA and $3500–15,000 for NCAAF. This keeps me from letting a loss “slide” because I didn’t have much invested in the wager making it money I can lose…I don’t have money that I can lose. I would run into the freeway at rush hour to pick up a penny that I drop out of my pocket…Not that I am in some dire need to save every cent…I wouldn’t be betting sports at all if I was concerned about my finances in general. But I don’t like to lose or get into a mindset of failure or losing. That’s true in anything I do and also for my general outlook on life. If you ever allow one loss to be “okay” or allow even the idea of complacency to announce itself in anything…you’re directly on the path to failure and/or average success (both of these are 100% unacceptable and would be horrible failures to me that I just couldn’t live with).I’m not yapping on and on here just because I like to hear myself talk or because I think I have some amazing insight into life or topics that others don’t have. So I don’t ever want my advice to sound preachy or judgmental in any way. Anything I answer/post is because I believe in what I am saying and will and do stand behind my advice 100%. My advice perfectly models my life and experiences.After saying that, I don’t know if you asked This question just because you were curious in what the answer may be or what someone else thinks about the topic…or if you are just trying to get more questions out there to get more views and potentially money through the partner program…or if you are truly trying to see if there is a “best” or “easiest” method to sports betting. I truly don’t know so I’ll only speak to the part that I care about and concern myself with:Some people truly believe that there are shortcuts, tips and tricks, methods or choices, etc that will make your overall sports wagers more profitable and/or help you pick more winners overall. This just simply isn’t true. Sure some of these may help in an isolated case every once and a while, but no week, sport, game, team, player, circumstance, etc is ever constant in sports. Best way for me to prove this is by referencing ANY matchup between two teams in the same sport. Do you expect the same or even a similar outcome in the next matchup? Let’s add some criteria to make it more clear: 1) the next matchup is at the other team’s stadium 2) One team is now out of playoff contention and the other is fighting for the #1 seed in their division 3) Trades/acquisitions have happened for both teams since on both the offensive and defensive sides (a new guard, a safety, a kicker and a pass rushing specialist who is only a one or two down player at the very most)…I know I said any game, but I’m guessing I’m going to use football since I kind of made that assumption without realizing it.So what would I personally look at and analyze with the data above available to me? I can tell you that I have significant info that will give me a great place to start on both the spread and over/under…I’ll explain:Will I use the previous game and its outcome in this analysis…no, other than the win or loss that was gained in that matchup, I don’t see MUCH value in deeply analyzing the game play in that small microcosm of the teams or the league in general. Both teams will review the game film tirelessly and I can only be CERTAIN of one thing that will come out of both film sessions…both teams will alter their approach to the next game to SOME degree. Maybe they will move focus from establishing the run game early and often to a full-on air attack…or they may just tweak things like give more carries to one RB than the other who didn’t perform well in the last game. Maybe it will be a new strategic spin on the game plan: such as cutting down on deep routes and not focusing on any “home run” opportunities, but instead implementing a barrage of short to mid-range routes with lots of directional changes ending in tight drags, slants or such. There’s no way to know for sure, but this is where I will go back to the previous matchup and get a good sense of what was working and what failed for each team and their o and d units. If the LB’s struggled in pass defense and just couldn’t keep up with the routes around them…or if they were VERY aggressive and/or successful in getting penetration and hits/sacks/pressure on the QB….either of these things tell me that a heavy amount of the offense next game will display those shorter pass options with complex and also some quick developing routes. They will also use the RB pretty heavily early in the game to help alleviate the chances of seeing a high amount of blitzes. Some quick dives and some tosses with alternating directions to both “slow” the defense down and to get some idea of how the defensive alignments operate..what does the outside LB or up DB do in “this” or “that” base set. Lots more to cover on this one specific topic, but I’ll try to keep it as short as possible. This (and a plethora of other info I would analyze and expand on) early game strategy could fail or could succeed. I must be confident enough in my prediction that I won’t have already fucked up my entire wager inside of the first 12 minutes…has happened before and will likely happen again, but I’d like to think I’ll never miss…This game plan and the subsequent success or failure of its implementation can begin to give me insight into what type of offense/schemes they will shift towards in the following quarters. This is where your pre-season analysis and data collection/interpretation/analysis becomes a resource that you simply can’t move forward (with any true belief in your guesses…if you are guessing at ANYTHING in your analysis of the game, it’s usually best to drop that matchup and/or drop betting all together for a while until you can gather and build up a solid and extensive USABLE data packet. I have historical data/records and personal notes on 97 FBS NCAAF teams. Some have maybe 5–10 pages while some of my teams that I just bet well have in excess of 100 up to nearly 300 (~275 on Alabama) pages. These huge folders full of mind-numbing data sets wouldn’t help me if I was trying to do specific game analysis so all of that data is compiled down to one sheet with the major info and trends that I personally see as useful and am able to make somewhat quick references off of.Back to the example matchup: these aren’t any specific teams so telling you what the score would likely be at the end of the first quarter is not really possible, but for the examples sake, the short passes and blitz prevention offense would eat up a lot of clock and with that type of offense, you could assume that their defense was either very good or the other offense isn’t a huge threat to them (or not perceived to be). -7.5 to +3.5. Id lean towards the under on the 7.5 and would likely lean towards the over on the 3.5. There are quite a few reasons why I would lean towards either of those picks, but I’ll just ask you to take my word for it at this time.Now, I’d expect a rush heavy attack with some play action and deep attempts mixed in through the 2nd and 3rd quarters. And so on and so forth. This isn’t close to a true game analysis or even close to complete or even close to such. This is a detailed but pretty basic example of where I get started on a game.Does home field make a difference: sometimes yes and sometimes no. I don’t like to give too much credence to the benefit of ““home field” advantage. If you would like, it’s pretty safe on average to add 1.5 points to the home teams total or take that away from the away team…Some places are difficult for visiting teams Such as the Denver Broncos playing at such a high altitude with less O2 and thinner air in general.The trades/acquisitions can be big hints at what possible production the player may bring. A pass rush specialist can come in to any team and rush the QB from day-1. No scheme limits on them. A DB, that’s much different, they will need to learn the schemes and coverages and specific assignments. And they may even be in charge of calling some of the defensive schemes and setting the players in front of them in the correct lanes/areas of the field. That means their playing time will be limited and their impact largely diminished. You could expect break downs in coverage and issues on swaps/lapses in individual responsibilities. This will add decent value/points to the opposing teams (their offense) predicted scoring output.An offensive guard is not likely to need much of a learning curve to get up to their normal on-field ability. Their addition or a change at the position should not alter the offense and their scoring much at all. Unless you are swapping out the absolute best guard in the league for a player not even graded at the position…I’d take some interest if he was known to be lacking in skill or ability or if he had never seen action in an NFL game yet. It’s likely that this would still not alter my perception of the offensive unit as a whole, but an unknown anywhere in a starting role can’t be entirely overlooked (no “unknown” variables can be left as such if you are going to have the BEST possible prediction of the entire game).A kicker is an interesting addition especially near the end of the regular season. First, this means their kicker went down or failed to deliver so they must get a good read on the new kicker and allow him to get as many game-speed ““practice” kicks with his new line, long snapper and holder. To get him ready for the playoff run. I’m assuming he would be on the team playing for the #1 seed and not the team getting ready for the draft right now. So he would get any long-range opportunities even if they are at or slightly past his maximum field-goal range. The offense would also likely play it safe (if they have a decent lead by the end of the second quarter) when they are inside of their 40-yd line. This would mean that they would be okay to run on 3rd and long or even run back to back from 2nd and 10. Of course they want to get a first down any chance they can, but they have the luxury and almost a necessity to allow for the kicker to get as many chances as they can provide him…provided that the score is relatively strong in their favor. This will give me a good insight into late game scoring expectations and potential trends that could deviating from the teams “norm” late in games. You can likely assume that they won’t be looking to run up the score so let’s say the other teams average point per game trend is at 17 as an example. And the leading teams defense is top-10 in overall passing defense and 20th or lower in rush defense. A good estimate at the end of the 2nd quarter would be 21 or 24 to 10 or 13. The 3rd quarter 28 or 31 to 13 or 16. The game will be pretty much out of reach at this time. Ending score would be 35 or 38 to 16 or 20.So here you would start looking at the over/under with 51 to 58 total points in mind. An over/under at 63 wouldn’t be a bet that I would make without VERY heavy incentive to bet the under. I would like to see +150–170 to really consider this as a viable opportunity. A lower point total such as say 47–48.5 would be a a near snap bet on the over even at odds of -115 to -120.I know that much of this is just making up scenarios and assuming a TON or even overlooking extremely important aspects of the game. But again, just take this as a very brief but hopefully informative and helpful insight into some things to look for and the direction you should take on your lines of reasoning for specific game analysis. There are many more variables to consider and other ways to attack the points that I have mentioned above. You must develop your own way, one that makes sense to and is comfortable for you, to analyze, interpret and predict scores and game flow throughout the entire game (not just at the end…you CANT guess at or predict a point total or spread without having a sense of the game flow and how the scoring should unfold. You don’t have to predict these perfectly or anything, but you must be in the general range of +/- 5 to 20% from the actual total in order to come up with a prediction that is valuable to compare to the lines and your confidence in the precision of your overall prediction should be weighed against the difference in the line and score prediction as well as your confidence level with the odds and ultimately see if your potential payout is ““worth it” (the relatively large amount you will be wagering) and if your confidence and probability are both high enough to justify the potential to lose “X” dollars and also in-line with the potential payout through the odds. A relatively HIGH confidence level in your prediction should allow for you to feel very good about odds that allow for a 15–20% profit on your money. If you’re iffy but still believe that there is sufficient evidence that trends towards your prediction (say you’re 60–75% sure that you have a solid prediction), I’d say that you want to see odds that offer a MINIMUM of 65–70% potential profit with 80–110% profit potential being a much better option. If you’re below 60% confidence, this is up to you, but I really do all that I can to stay away from any lines that don’t meet this base criteria. There are FAR too many options out there so don’t settle on anything less than the absolute BEST option from both the payout and probability aspects. A huge payout potential with low confidence/probability isn’t a viable or good option at all! But it is set up to bring in lots of action due solely to the monetary side…novice bettors tend to jump on these types of opportunities because they feel like the score prediction is just a guess or too difficult for them to come up with on their own so they see no difference or value from one line to another. The only separation will be based on surface level beliefs about the game and their biases or beliefs. So a high payout potential with no true variables to compare on the other side of the wager consideration, this really is the “best” way to wager in what I would call slightly below a ““half-assed” manner. You will be lucky to normalize at around a 42–45% win percentage which means that you will have lost money overall, and a pretty significant amount after enough wagers are placed.I REALLY harp on not wagering until you have a full understanding of how to truly bet sports and also have very detailed and usable data for teams that you will be considering. I know how many kids the all of the main coaches (offensive, defensive coordinator and head coach and assistant coach if he’s not one of the others) have as well as what I can find about their wives and relationships, if they have sick or elderly parents…if they’re close to their parents; do the coaches have pets? What kind, how many?; when and how often do coaches have meetings with and without players…how are these meetings run and what is the general purpose of the meetings; is the coach strict, mean, understanding, firm, a pushover, naive, unethical, liked by the players and other coaches, who is truly on a hot seat and do they have the entire year or will they be replaced as soon as the replacement is found or available? Head coaches’ play calling tendencies from their first day as At least a primary assistant coach (so for Nick Saban, I’ve compiled every offensive and defensive play (at least 85–90% of them since some weren’t available or were only available almost all the way across the country) that the teams ran starting with the Kent State team coached by Don James where Saban was a grad assistant (~1975). These early years were what shaped Saban’s defensive philosophy and led him to create the pattern matching cover-3 defense that he implemented with the Browns under Bill Belichick. There isn’t a single NFL team that doesn’t run some variation of this defensive scheme and almost every college and even high school (at the high levels) will have at least some packages that are based on his defense. It’s not an easy defense to learn…especially not for defensive backs particularly the nickle or whatever you want to call the slot corner. This is why Minkah Fitzpatrick was placed here and stayed there for much of his college career. He was definitely skilled enough to cover WR-1 or play free or strong safety…but his in-depth understanding of the coverage and assignments for his position as well as the other defensive backs made his Placement (near the middle of the defense) on the field crucial for him to observe offensive packages quickly and then relay and audibles out to either or both sides of the defense. So why is it important to know anything about the philosophy or evolution of a defensive base package…because this will allow you to understand how teams will attack it with their offensive weapons and how likely the defense is to be able to stop the attack…there’s about 25–50 pages of different pattern matching base sets that Alabama runs or at least have to know. So yea, I’ve printed them out and could probably coach their defense if they ever get into a pinch…one can pray for a Miracle right! Lol. This is a very basic and obvious thing to learn about Alabama and Nick Saban…Now, you’ll have to break down offensive play calling and trending plays, understand how saban tends to score and when he lets off of the gas (he’s not going to run up the score and doesn’t care if it’s a starter or 4th string guy who may never play again…don’t score if you have the game in hand +21 point differential over half way through the 4th quarter. He also puts in many 3rd and 4th string defenders once the game is in hand (not against major SEC teams or similar teams, that would be disrespectful to the other team, but against a New Mexico State or Duke…they will just be happy to get a real shot at scoring a true TD off of a drive in Bryant Denny Stadium in front of 97,000+ fans. Their offense is usually VERY driven to score and even excited even if they are down by 63 with 1 minute left. The practice squad defense has MANY flaws (very athletic just unpolished players mostly) which will be exposed Even against a decisively worse team. But they are expected to fail/make mistakes as a group and then saban can show them their mistakes in real time in film sessions and they can truly begin to get better and more able to contribute in the starting 3-deep rotational sets.After this, just ~50–100 NCAAF teams to go (in FBS) depending on how many you want to be able to consider for betting opportunities. You can’t just focus on the biggest teams or the best conferences…they get the most and earliest action and lines normalize and become prohibitive much faster than say UTSA vs Idaho…by having good data on relatively unknown teams, you will be in a great position to snag the rare “missed” opening lines provided by the sports books. Maybe they open with an over/under of 47 with a team that scores a ton but has absolutely no defense from some mid-country lower tier conference against a run-oriented or even a triple-option team…they may only look at the first teams 0–11 record with no wins in 3 years as a team and the triple option attack estimating a score around 34–10 or so. This is the type of line that you jump all over and go ““all-in” on. Whatever you can wager…bet it all, IMMEDIATELY before the line is tweaked and quickly normalized due to the large bets from the true pro bettors and sharks. It would only take one or two massive 5–6 figure bets to take the line, which is a gift from god, And turn it into a useless prohibitive line/odd combo. Without knowing the teams as well as or better than the guys making the lines, you will never see these lines early enough to capitalize on one.And I really do have all of the personal info that I mentioned above. This was obtained online, through chats with fans of the teams, talking to boosters or other athletic department personnel, recruits and players, and if at all possible…”bagmen”. If you don’t believe they are real and everywhere and paying players and their families (or providing insurance, medical or do-nothing jobs for free..), then you are simply naive and a bit slow to not understand why they are able to operate. These guys run in groups that consist of lawyers, doctors, business owners, etc (usually pretty wealthy guys with NO TIES to any school in particular. They are obviously alumni of the school or just huge fans of the team. They acquire photos of recruiting charts…I mean how they get those, must have been accidentally posted online. Never would an assistant give them this but if they do, I’m certain it was on accident…lol. They then begin by calling the recruits and the. going to meet them and their families where they find out what they need or want and if they will give their word to sign with team “X” for the agreed upon ““benefits”. New additions to the “team” of bagmen will start by taking the money or other items to the recruits/some family member or friend. They will have 3–5 recruits to take care of and deliver to bi-weekly or monthly. They do these payments in “installments” for two reasons 1) so the kids or their family don’t take a huge $$ and spend it immediately on something will draw the attention of law enforcement, the irs or the NCAA…or competitor schools. 2) So they can keep dialogue with them and see if other teams are coming to speak with them (pay them). This info is relayed back to the coaching staff and if they see the opponent as a real threat, the coaches will push for the kid to sign or at least begin recruiting much harder. My guess is that if you live in the US you’ve seen a College football bagman maybe even talked to one or have a working relationship with one and you just don’t know that they are. ALL of the big-5 conferences EACH team has a network of these guys. The school doesn’t, but they are there for their team…just that they ““aren’t” there if you get what I’m saying. If anyone ever tells you they are one (without asking you or speaking to you about joining them), then you’ve got a liar on your hands. These guys truly shape the college football landscape in a BIG way. Yes, us having Nick Saban is a priceless benefit for the school and is fans, but we also have…one could potentially exist, but there is no way to deny or prove it…an extremely large and willing network of people that want to truly have a hand in helping Bama win games and NC’s. I mean we would if there was one. There’s definitely not one for Alabama…Auburn, yes, without a doubt. They have bagmen on the university payroll…lol.I mean if they did exist, they would know lots of info plus others like them at every other school system and throughout the country…they may help someone who will provide them with info or products that they need but can’t find readily. Imagine if a recruit asked for cocaine or marijuana…I mean I’m sure none ever have.Last bit, there’s NOTHING easy or free in this world, sports betting isn’t any different. If you can’t name the head coaches at more than half of the FBS colleges, the top 20–50 recruits for the next two recruiting cycles, shit like this…NFL offensive coordinators (all 32) …things that seem useless to know but obviously are VERY important if you want to understand the lines and odds. If you don’t know the offensive philosophy of Jacksonville because you don’t know the OC’s lineage or offensive split trends…what do you do when you’re looking at lines and about to place a wager..? Look up the shit on the spot, no, you’re going to guess and move on. I can’t tell you any more clearly and with any more certainty, if you plan on or catch yourself doing this, DO NOT CONTINUE BETTING SPORTS. I tell you this to save your money. THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO WAY THAT YOU WILL SEE A PROFIT EVER WITH THIS TYPE OF ““TECHNIQUE”. You WILL lose money. You CANT guess these and become profitable. The odds aren’t even stacked against you, the odds aren’t even there for your to consider…if you just think it’s fun…send me your money and you can pretend or I’ll tell you that it’s being wagered on a game…you’ll lose less money this way because I won’t ask very often…lol. Seriously, DONT bet with no strategy or knowledge. Don’t guess, PLEASE. I don’t want to see anyone piss away their funds.