July 2013 Newsletter: Fill & Download for Free

If I was slightly interested in setting up a website, GoodUI [1] would get my business in the blink of an eye because I've seen (through spammy self-promotional questions on Quora) too many horrible, nasty, clumsy and crass sites that look like incompetent ripoffs.You wouldn't want to be one of those, would you?GoodUI popped up in another feed I follow, just today [2]. It closely matches your enquiry.They start by suggesting ways your site can be less annoying, more useful and generally easier to use. And that's a good place to start.Absent any information on what your site is, does, offers or sells, I'm a bit at a loss; a free site like Quora has different techniques to the DVD-by-mail service I use (Fatso), and to the thoroughly annoying US-based contact lense supply company, yet they have all maintained my custom.Don't forget; you might well not want some or a lot of your would-be clients, and identifying these early is part of your job, too.GoodUI also takes you through A/B testing, showing you how to decide for yourself what does and doesn't work. It gives specific examples and numbers, talking conversion rates.Then, of themselves, they are a good case study -- converting casual users into committed, paying subscribers [3].They offer:newsletters;free signup;free trial use of the software they sell, and;reads as competent, candid and conversational.It's that last that made the first impression a good one; it doesn't look like a scam. But that's just me.Who are your customers?1] I am not affiliated in any way with GoodUI.2] Four short links: 26 July 20133] I have no idea of their actual conversion rates, but they'd get me.

Malala YousafzaiToday I’m so happy because someone asked this question “who is Malala Yousafzai?” and today I’m able to give the answer to your question, but by the way thanks.To be honest today I realize who is Malala. That was eight years ago when I saw on TV that some schoolgirls in Swat valley in Pakistan had been attacked by terrorists on a school bus. let's talk more about Malala who she is & what she accomplished in her short life;Honors, Nobel Peace Prize (2014), when she was just 17 years 4 months 29 days old.Founder of Malala Fund, Malala Fund is an international, non-profit organization that advocates for girls' education. Malala Fund invests in education activists and advocates who are driving solutions to barriers to girls' education in their communities. A digital newsletter and publication for girls and young women to share their thoughts, challenges, and accomplishments.Her role models Benazir Bhutto was a Pakistani politician who served as Prime Minister of Pakistan from 1988 to 1990 and again from 1993 to 1996. She was the first woman to head a democratic government in a Muslim majority nation. She studied at Harvard University and the University of Oxford, where she was President of the Oxford Union. Her father, the PPP leader Zulfikar Bhutto, was elected Prime Minister on a socialist platform in 1973.Malala Yousafzai: Nobel Peace Prize Lecture 2014:Malala Yousafzai delivered her Nobel Lecture on 10 December 2014 at the Oslo City Hall, Norway. She was introduced by Thorbjörn Jagland, Chairman of the Norwegian Nobel Committee.I have to say that your voice becomes one of the strongest voices representing the voiceless women and children across the world, keep on scoring at every victory moment, I hope your voice can be hard & Today world needs women like Malala ma'am for women empowerment and girl child education thank you to her parents for letting her fly as high as she can.Her words “I am pretty certain that I am the 1st recipient of Nobel peace prize who still fights with her younger brothers."- what a heart she has.Malala Yousafzai addresses United Nations Youth Assembly:United Nations, New York, 12 July 2013 - Education activist Malala Yousafzai marks her 16th birthday, on Friday, 12 July 2013 at the United Nations by giving her first high-level public appearance and statement on the importance of education.Her words; "Let us pick up our books and our pens, for they are our most powerful weapons. One child, one teacher, one book, and one pen can change the world. Education is the only solution. Education, first."I honestly cannot explain the feeling when I hear this quote. The words are probably not even there to describe the feeling I experience other than "inspirational".Malala Yousafzai (UN Messenger of Peace) conversation about girls' education:Malala represents in the highest sense the triumph of courage over adversity. May God gives her long life and respecting too much .. you are grate amazing personality in the world &Lots of love for your emotions United Nations Secretary-General António GuterresMalala Yousafzai and Justin Trudeau talk education and women's empowerment at WEF:Nobel Peace Prize winner Malala Yousafzai and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau discussed the importance of education in empowering women and girls in developing nations during a panel talk at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.Malala Yousafzai becomes honorary Canadian:The most peaceful parliamentarians in the world I had never seen before I love you Canada from the bottom of my heart and clapping was amazing, even I was feeling a sense of pride being a Pakistani, she must be floating in the air at that moment.Her father speech at TED Conference:My Daughter, Malala | Ziauddin Yousafzai | TED Talks:During her father's speech, heart touching words ''Don't ask me what I did. Ask me what I didn't do. I did not clip her wings''. Ziauddin Yousatzai. Think that says all that needs to be said. A wonderful man and father.Malala Yousafzai meets Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo AbeMeeting with Bill GatesA Conversation with Malala YousafzaiObama Meets Malala YousafzaiMalala Yousafzai Speaks at HarvardMalala Yousafzai | Education for All | Oxford UnionMovie: He Named Me Malala | UK Inspire Trailer | Official HD 2015Malala Yousafzai Visit to Pakistan after five years:Malala Yousafzai currently living in the UK in 2018 he had visited Pakistan after along time. Here is a speech during her visit to Pakistan.Heart touching moments, her emotions, may Allah bless you.Exclusive Interview of Malala Yousafzai with Hamid Mir in Capital Talk - 30 March 2018Malala Yousafzai website:Malala Fund | Working for a world where all girls can learn and lead http://ttps://www.malala.org/Wikipedia: Malala Yousafzai - WikipediaBooks list: malala yousafzai: 77 Books availableI had only one purpose of posting here. I have been oblivious to Malala for nine to ten years because someone filled my ears against Malala and because of that I stopped reading about Malala but I will say that Everyone has their own thoughts and ideas and we should not trust anyone.I am a student now and due to lack of time, I could not write much on Malala's life because it is not possible for me to cover Malala's life in one post but insha'Allah I will always write on many people like him who are following his path like him.Thank you, Google for your information.

Hi James F Evans, thank you for asking.How high will Bitcoin go before falling back down?Bitcoin’s price goes up and down all the time. Do you mean, at what price will bitcoin hit its market cycle peak?Based on data models, $100,000 - $288,000.Based on history, $90,000.You’re familiar with the data models. E.g., logarithmic growth, curve, Stock-to-Flow, four-year cycle, hash cycles, expanding cycles.We also have data. Just data, not models or projections based on data.That data suggests that if the market keeps this pace and DOES NOT crash hard or go sideways for another month or two, we’re on target to peak at roughly $90,000—maybe $100,000 or more, but not much more, likely in April 2021.That’s impossible, Mark.No.In fact, that would match the metrics we’ve seen at previous cycle peaks, then estimate the results those metrics will show if we keep up the pace we’re on.What are those metrics?Two charts that clearly predict all four previous market peaks: Puell Multiple and MVRV Z-Score.Puell Multiple: A Measure of How Miners Value BitcoinThe Puell Multiple compares the price of newly-mined bitcoin to the average market value at a given time. When the Puell Multiple goes way up, miners tend to dump on the market. When it goes way down, they tend to hoard.Extreme readings suggest everybody’s looking to sell and nobody plans to HODL. Meanwhile, new buyers tend to have weak hands or only want to flip their bitcoins for profit. As a result, the market crashes (it does not dip).In this chart, you can see the extreme levels between the black lines. I circled our current level in blue—as you can see, it’s not near the top, but when you project the math into the future that everybody expects, you can tell it will reach extreme levels if we keep this pace.MVRV Z-ScoreMVRV Z-score measures the difference between bitcoin’s present price and the average price people bought it for. When the score goes up, more people have paper gains. When those gains get really high, people choose to convert their bitcoins into other things.Maybe they want to cash out their new fortune? Perhaps they fear the market will crash?For whatever reason, they tend to sell en masse. Nobody wants to HODL.In this chart, you can see the extreme levels between the blue lines. I circled our current level in yellow—as you can see, it’s not near the top, but when you project the math into the future that everybody expects, you can tell it will reach extreme levels if we keep this pace.These metrics form one plank of My Plan for Bitcoin’s Bull Market so I pay special attention to them.Why do I like them so much?First, they’re clear. You don’t need plot lines or compare anything, you just need to read the numbers.Second, they reflect actual human behavior. People decide bitcoin’s price, not mathematical formulas.Third, they have four distinct data points that occur regardless of the larger macro environment. Many metrics have only two or three.Last, they span all of bitcoin’s history. Most people only use data from the previous bull market, but bitcoin’s had four bull markets—from inception to June 2011, Nov 2011 to Apr 2013, Jul 2013 to Dec 2013, and Oct 2015 to Dec 2017.These metrics impute all that data into very easy-to-follow markers. Except 2011, both metrics went extreme at the market cycle peaks. Chalk up 2011 to sketchy data—we don’t have good pricing data for the formulas that make up these metrics, so we can’t be too precise, but you can see the extreme movement.But, Mark, this latest bull market just started!Are you sure?In January 2019, bitcoin’s price was $3,200. In January 2020, it was $7,000. In January 2021, it was $25,000.On those dates, the total altcoin market was worth $37 billion, $53 billion, and $215 billion.Higher each year.This is the monthly view of bitcoin’s price since 2019:Perhaps the dictionary says bitcoin was in a bear market from January 2018 to October 2020.I’m not going to argue with a dictionary, but where I come from, up is up. You can call it whatever you want.But the Stock-to-Flow! Four-Year Cycles! Hash Cycles! Expanding Cycles!There’s a model for every outcome you want to see, and they all disagree with each other.They’re also flexible.For example, bitcoin’s price has deviated from Stock-to-Flow up to 70% below and 400% above. You can see this in the Stock-to-Flow Deflection chart.Bob Loukas says the four-year cycles can be left- or right-translated, not necessarily symmetrical. Expanding cycles is a theory without specific targets.While I don’t make decisions based on data models, I picked a few interesting patterns and projected their paths over the next month assuming we stay on this pace:Pi cycle, a mathematical formula that maps the intersection of two specific moving averages. When those averages converge, the market is near its peak. Today, those averages are 3% apart and getting slightly closer with each passing day. All the previous times we saw the lines cross, the market peaked within weeks.Two-year moving average multiplier, a line bitcoin breaches only when it reaches market cycle peaks. We’re very close to breaching that line.Logarithmic growth curve, an algorithm that marks the upper and lower boundaries of bitcoin’s historical prices. When bitcoin’s price hits the top of the curve, it signals the absolute peak and triggers deep, long bear markets. If bitcoin’s price remains on this trajectory, we will hit the top of that curve in a month.Golden ratio multiplier. Whenever bitcoin’s price goes above that line, it hits a market cycle peak. That line projects to hit the top of the logarithmic growth curve at the same time as you would expect the lines of the Pi cycle to converge.I’ll overlap all of them on one chart so you can see the trajectory:Or a cleaner view, just projecting this parabola forward on the log growth chart:All of these signals meet next month at a price of roughly $90,000.I go into more depth about these trends and the more short-term ebbs and flows of the market in my Crypto is Easy newsletter. Hopefully, this brief summary gives you a sense of perspective.Mark, you’re saying bear market starting in May? At only $90,000?No.I’m saying unless we have a nice crash or cool off for a while, we will hit a top of around $90k, give or take $10–15k, next month. That would fit within Stock-to-Flow deviations, certain other models, and on-chain metrics.But who’s to say we have to keep this pace? Why can’t we break the parabola and change the trajectory?Also, just because we hit a peak doesn't mean we have to have a deep, multiyear bear market after that. We could go to the peak, then crash to $30k or even lower, then go back up later this year. We did something similar in 2011 and 2013.In fact, in 2013, bitcoin hit its market cycle peak in April—the culmination of a 1.5yr bull run. Then, its price dropped 77% over three months. After that lull, Silicon Valley FOMO pushed bitcoin’s price up 1,700% from July to December.Everybody seems to consider that part of one move, even though the data clearly shows two separate market cycles.Why can’t we do that this time, too?Bottom lineWe can sustain this pace OR have a bull market through the end of the year, but not both.Fortunately, this market can turn on a dime. Or, chill out for a few months before going up again.Will that happen?We shall see.Until you have some reason to believe we won’t continue the path we’re on, you have to assume we will. And that means roughly $90k in April, possibly a little higher.Can you believe that?—Mark Helfman publishes the Crypto is Easy newsletter. He is also a top writer on Medium and Hacker Noon for bitcoin and other topics. His books explore the social, cultural, financial, and business challenges of cryptocurrency in the real world.Twitter | Medium | BioAlso check out Crypto Globe 360° and Inner Circle and The Crypto Cave and CryptoCurry (plus shout out to In Bitcoin We Trust).