Weathering Simulation Glencoe: Fill & Download for Free

No, far from it as the weather and the climate swing from hot to cold and back again as the past climate history proves. Remember we are in an the Quaternary ice age. [See Wikipedia for details] We should prepare for a cooling earth where there will be early winters with much snowfall and this will cause an snow albedo that will add to the cooling.Only the fact that the climate will oscillate from hot to cold and back in a long cycle is inevitable.Further we cannot predict the timing or the direction of the oscillations that are baked into climate change cycles. This is the great fallacy of the alarmists who knew their computer models lacked credibility for policy analysis but pushed a political view notwithstanding."The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible."IPCC TAR WG1, Working Group I: The Scientific BasisThus it’s quite curious that the IPCC continues to make future predictions of apocalyptic climate change! Even their conclusion that the recent increases of CO2 and other greenhouse gases are the cause of most of the Earth’s warming in the last half of the 20th century appears unjustified. (Much of the information in the above 11 paragraphs is derived from the very informative reference: http://co2coalition.org/wp-conte...)Stephen Schneider, Stanford Univ. environmentalist -1989 Discover magazine - "That, of course, entails getting loads of media coverage. So we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements, and make little mention of any doubts we might have."We must not ignore the reality of a cooling earth.12 New Papers: North Atlantic, Pacific, And Southern Oceans Are Cooling As Glaciers Thicken, Gain MassBy Kenneth Richard on 11. September 2017Graph Source Duchez et al., 2016Contrary to expectations, climate scientists continue to report that large regions of the Earth have not been warming in recent decades.According to Dieng et al. (2017), for example, the global oceans underwent a slowdown, a pause, or even a slight cooling trend during 2003 to 2013. This undermines expectations from climate models which presume the increase in radiative forcing from human CO2 emissions should substantially increase ocean temperatures.The authors indicate that the recent trends in ocean temperatures “may just reflect a 60-year natural cycle“, the AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation), and not follow radiative forcing trends.Dieng et al., 2017 We investigate the global mean and regional change of sea surface and land surface temperature over 2003–2013, using a large number of different data sets, and compare with changes observed over the past few decades (starting in 1950). … While confirming cooling of eastern tropical Pacific during the last decade as reported in several recent studies, our results show that the reduced rate of change of the 2003–2013 time span is a global phenomenon. GMST short-term trends since 1950 computed over successive 11-year windows with 1-year overlap show important decadal variability that highly correlates with 11-year trends of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index. The GMST 11-year trend distribution is well fitted by a Gaussian function, confirming an unforced origin related to internal climate variability.climate variability.We evaluate the time derivative of full-depth ocean heat content to determine the planetary energy imbalance with different approaches: in situ measurements, ocean reanalysis and global sea level budget. For 2003–2013, it amounts to 0.5 +/− 0.1 W m−2, 0.68 +/− 0.1 W m−2 and 0.65 +/− 0.1 W m−2, respectively for the three approaches. Although the uncertainty is quite large because of considerable errors in the climate sensitivity parameter, we find no evidence of decrease in net radiative forcing in the recent years, but rather an increase compared to the previous decades.We can note that the correlation between GMST [global mean surface temperature] trends and AMO trends is quite high. It amounts 0.88 over the whole time span. At the beginning of the record, the correlation with PDO trends is also high (equal to 0.8) but breaks down after the mid-1980s. The GMST and AMO trends shown in Figure 6 show a low in the 1960s and high in the 1990s, suggestive of a 60-year oscillation, as reported for the global mean sea level by Chambers et al. (2012). Thus the observed temporal evolution of the GMST [global mean surface temperature] trends may just reflect a 60-year natural cycle driven by the AMO.Subpolar North Atlantic Cooling Rapidly Since 2005According to Piecuch et al. (2017) there has been no net warming of the North Atlantic Ocean in the last quarter century. The warming that occurred in the 10 years from 1994-2004 has been completely negated by an even more pronounced cooling trend since 2005. The predominant (87%) cause of the warming was determined to be of the same natural (non-anthropogenic) origin as the subsequent cooling: advection, the movement/circulation of heat via internal processes. In fact, human CO2 emissions are never mentioned as even contributing to the the 1994-2004 warming.Piecuch et al., 2017 The subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) is subject to strong decadal variability, with implications for surface climate and its predictability. In 2004–2005, SPNA decadal upper ocean and sea-surface temperature trends reversed from warming during 1994–2004 to cooling over 2005–2015. … Over the last two decades, the SPNA has undergone a pronounced climate shift. Decadal OHC and SST trends reversed sign around 2004–2005, with a strong warming seen during 1994–2004 and marked cooling observed over 2005–2015. These trend reversals were pronounced (> 0.1 °C yr−1 in magnitude) in the northeastern North Atlantic (south and west of Iceland) and in the Labrador Sea. … To identify basic processes controlling SPNA thermal variations, we diagnose the SPNA heat budget using ECCOv4. Changes in the heat content of an oceanic control volume can be caused by convergences and divergences of advective, diffusive, and surface heat fluxes within the control volume. [Advective heat convergence] explains 87% of the total [ocean heat content] variance, the former [warming] showing similar decadal behavior to the latter [cooling], increasing over 1994–2004, and decreasing over 2005–2015. … These results demonstrate that the recent SPNA decadal trend reversal was mostly owing to advective convergences by ocean circulation … decadal variability during 1993–2015 is in largest part related to advection by horizontal gyres.Yeager and Robson (2017) also point out that, like it did from the 1960s to 1980s, the North Atlantic “has again been cooling”, a trend which they and others expect to continue. Sea surface temperatures are no warmer today than they were in the 1950s.Yeager and Robson, 2017 [W]hile the late twentieth century Atlantic was dominated by NAO-driven THC [thermohaline circulation] variability, other mechanisms may dominate in other time periods. … More recently, the SPNA [sub polar North Atlantic] upper ocean has again been cooling, which is also thought to be related to a slowdown in the THC. A continued near-term cooling of the SPNA has been forecast by a number of prediction systems, with implications for pan-Atlantic climate.The Southern Ocean Has Been Cooling Since The 1970s, Contrary To ModelsLatif et al., 2017 The Southern Ocean featured some remarkable changes during the recent decades. For example, large parts of the Southern Ocean, despite rapidly rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, depicted a surface cooling since the 1970s, whereas most of the planet has warmed considerably. In contrast, climate models generally simulate Southern Ocean surface warming when driven with observed historical radiative forcing. The mechanisms behind the surface cooling and other prominent changes in the Southern Ocean sector climate during the recent decades, such as expanding sea ice extent, abyssal warming, and CO2 uptake, are still under debate. Observational coverage is sparse, and records are short but rapidly growing, making the Southern Ocean climate system one of the least explored. It is thus difficult to separate current trends from underlying decadal to centennial scale variability.Turney et al., 2017 Occupying about 14% of the world’s surface, the Southern Ocean plays a fundamental role in ocean and atmosphere circulation, carbon cycling and Antarctic ice-sheet dynamics. … As a result of anomalies in the overlying wind, the surrounding waters are strongly influenced by variations in northward Ekman transport of cold fresh subantarctic surface water and anomalous fluxes of sensible and latent heat at the atmosphere–ocean interface. This has produced a cooling trend since 1979.Sea Ice Has Been Expanding For The Entire Southern Hemisphere Since The 1970sComiso et al., 2017 The Antarctic sea ice extent has been slowly increasing contrary to expected trends due to global warming and results from coupled climate models. After a record high extent in 2012 the extent was even higher in 2014 when the magnitude exceeded 20 × 106 km2 for the first time during the satellite era. … [T]he trend in sea ice cover is strongly influenced by the trend in surface temperature [cooling]. … A case study comparing the record high in 2014 with a relatively low ice extent in 2015 also shows strong sensitivity to changes in surface temperature. The results suggest that the positive trend is a consequence of the spatial variability of global trends in surface temperature and that the ability of current climate models to forecast sea ice trend can be improved through better performance in reproducing observed surface temperatures in the Antarctic region.The Pacific Ocean Has Also Been Cooling Since The 1970sLi, 2017 In the Southern Ocean, the increasing trend of the total OHC slowed down and started to decrease from 1980, and it started to increase again after 1995. In the warming context over the whole period [1970-2009], the Pacific was losing heat, especially in the deep water below 1000 m and in the upper layer above 300 m, excluding the surface 20 m layer in which the OHC kept increasing through the time.Glaciers, Ice Sheets Stable, Even Gaining MassGoel et al., 2017 Ice rises are a useful resource to investigate evolution and past climate of the DML coastal region. We investigate Blåskimen Island ice rise, one of the larger isle-type ice rises at the calving front of the intersection of Fimbul and Jelbart Ice Shelves, using geophysical methods. … Using the Input-Output method for a range of parameters and column setups, we conclude that Blåskimen Island has been thickening over the past nine years [2005-2014]. Thickening rates cannot be determined precisely, but ensemble results show that thickening rate averaged over the ice rise varies between 0.07 m a−1 and 0.35 m a−1 [per year]. On longer timescales, we speculate that the summit of Blåskimen Island has been stable within several kilometers at least in the past ∼600 years but no longer than several millennia.Bader et al., 2017 Rather than reflecting major changes in ice flow path over time, the provenance changes are interpreted to indicate relative stability of the East Antarctic ice sheet.Martín-Español et al., 2017 We investigate the mass balance of East Antarctica for 2003–2013 using a Bayesian statistical framework. … We apportion mass trends to SMB and ice dynamics for the EAIS, based on two different assumptions, different remote sensing data and two RCMs. In the first experiment, the model apportions about a third of the mass trend to ice dynamics, +17 Gt/yr, and two thirds, +40 Gt yr−1 to SMB, resulting in a total mass trend for the EAIS [East Antarctic Ice Sheet] of +57 ± 20 Gt yr−1.Bolch et al., 2017 Previous geodetic estimates of mass changes in the Karakoram revealed balanced budgets or a possible slight mass gain since ∼ 2000. Indications of longer-term stability exist but only very few mass budget analyses are available before 2000. Here, based on 1973 Hexagon KH-9, ∼ 2009 ASTER and the SRTM DTM, we show that glaciers in the Hunza River basin (central Karakoram) were on average in balance or showed slight insignificant mass loss within the period ∼ 1973–2009.Predictions Of Future Cooling, Ice ExpansionÅrthun et al., 2017 Statistical regression models show that a significant part of northern climate variability thus can be skillfully predicted up to a decade in advance based on the state of the ocean. Particularly, we predict that Norwegian air temperature will decrease over the coming years, although staying above the long-term (1981–2010) average. Winter Arctic sea ice extent will remain low but with a general increase towards 2020.Pittard et al., 2017 We suggest the Lambert-Amery glacial system will remain stable, or gain ice mass and mitigate a portion of potential future sea level rise over the next 500 years, with a range of +3.6 to -117.5 mm GMSL-equivalent.12 New Papers: North Atlantic, Pacific, And Southern Oceans Are Cooling As Glaciers Thicken, Gain MassWe cannot change the climate and it is a great delusion to think we can tax CO2 and especially to make the climate cooler. We need the opposite - more CO2 because of its benefits and more warming to survive.In the path of resilience a first priority is the value of cheap and plentiful fossil fuels based grid energy, particularly coal.Our climate has been warm not from anything humans are doing but because we are in the warming period of the Holocene Optimum interglacial.But the new reality is that temperatures are in decline for the past 6000 years. The fact is as the graphs above show the Holocene interglacial will turn cold.When you look at climate data over the past 300 + years you see the swings of warming after the Little Ice aga and now a pause and evidence of cooling.N. Hemisphere In Hypothermic Shock! Record Cold, ‘Historic Snowstorms’Winter hasn’t even officially arrived, but already large areas of the northern hemisphere are seeing “historic snowfalls,” frigid temperatures, and even avalanche alarms.The Northern Hemisphere has certainly caught a major cold, one certainly not caused by the human CO2 virus.Instead of fever, parts of the northern hemisphere are in hypothermia!Alarmists, media desperateThough global warming scientists will never admit it, they are really surprised and stunned.All that is left for them is to make up some cockamamie warming-causes-cold explanations and hope there are enough severely stupid among the media and masses to believe it.“United States — Rewrite the Record Books”Beginning in North America, “sub-zero temperatures are now blasting” millions of Americans following “the three historic snowstorms which buried parts of the U.S. last month,” reports weather site Electroverse - Documenting Earth Changes during the next GSM and Pole Shift here.Electroverse writes that “lows throughout the week will be more like January temperatures” with readings below zero for many U.S. states and “temps down into the teens are even forecast as far south as Texas.”Yesterday, 97 records were toppled.“It’s a big deal,” Electroverse writes in its headline. They also add:“No, record cold & snow IS NOT made ‘more likely in a warming world.’ In fact, the IPCC’s line—until not that long ago—was that ‘milder winter temperatures will decrease heavy snowstorms.'”Solar activity suspectedIt’s not the sort of thing we are supposed to be expecting from a “warming planet”. Some climate experts blame natural factors, like solar activity, for the cold, and that these warnings have long been known since the sun has entered a new period of calm.Freeze watches and warnings also extend as far south as Florida. And it’s only early November. And don’t expect to see many FFF activists show up at rallies protesting hot weather any time soon.Polar Bear Science site here also reports that the Hudson Bay in Canada has started freezing up earlier than normal three years in a row!Europe starting to get clobbered by snow, 2m in the AlpsMeanwhile cold has also spread across Europe, though not quite as brutal as what we’ve been seeing across North America.In central Europe, the Austrian online Heute here reports that “huge amounts of snow” are on the way for the Alps.German site http://Wetteronline.de reports here of “new, severe snowfalls in the Alps” with “up to two meters of fresh snow are possible in places up to the weekend” in Switzerland, Austria, and Northern Italy. “This is good news for winter sports enthusiasts – but the danger of avalanches is increasing.”Biggest November snowstorm in 40 yearsEven global warming child activist Greta Thunberg’s Sweden is getting hard hit by extreme cold and snow. Electroverse reports the Nordic country is suffering “its biggest November snowstorm in 40 years.”On November 10th, Mika tweeted that temps in northern Sweden fell 10 -34.5°C.Mika Rantanen@mikarantaneToday is the coldest morning so far during the ongoing winter season:-34.5°C in Sweden, -31.1°C in Norway and -30.6°C in Finland (not shown on the map).21411:31 PM - Nov 9, 2019Twitter Ads info and privacy96 people are talking about thisMost snow in 60 yearsThe German Ruhrkultur site reports how also Finland just saw “the coldest autumn temperature and the highest snow depth in at least 60 years” and that “the temperature in Enontekiö, a municipality in Finnish Lapland, dropped to 28.2°C on Tuesday 5 November.”Deepening cold across Siberia as well“On November 11 in Yakutia, the daily temperature never rose above −30°C (-22F),” reports the SOTT site here. “Some parts of Siberia were even colder: In Evenkia and the northern regions of the Krasnoyarsk Territory, the temperature dropped to −41 … −44°C.”SOTT comments (sarcastically): “I wonder how much ice will melt at −44°C (-47F).With all the early winter weather, it’s ridiculous to claim the globe is burning up. So it’s no wonder the alarmists have taken their climate ambulance to the far side of the globe, NSW Australia, and kept their narrow focus on brush fires.Read more at No Tricks ZoneN. Hemisphere In Hypothermic Shock! Record Cold, 'Historic Snowstorms'https://www.space.com/climate-explained-why-mars-is-cold-despite-an-atmosphere-of-mostly-carbon-dioxide.htmlThe Scottish Ski Resort experiencing its best Season in Six Years: 13+ Feet of Snow in 3 Weeks Buries Ski Lifts and Equipment HutsExtreme Weather GSMTHE SCOTTISH SKI RESORT EXPERIENCING ITS BEST SEASON IN SIX YEARS: 13+ FEET OF SNOW IN 3 WEEKS BURIES SKI LIFTS AND EQUIPMENT HUTSMARCH 9, 2020 CAP ALLONOn the back of last week’s fraudulent “Climate Change Has Finished Us Off” claims of one Scottish Ski Operator who laughably lamented “we just have mud” despite webcams proving otherwise, the operators of another (& nearby) Scottish snowsports center have revealed they’re actually enjoying the best snow conditions in six years.Glencoe Mountain has received approximately 4m (13.1ft) of global warming goodness over the past three weeks alone, which has left ski lifts and equipment huts partially buried across the region.All of Scotland’s outdoor snowsports centers have benefited from the near-record snowfall, reports the BBC.Glencoe Mountain’s Andy Meldrum said: “It’s certainly the best I have seen for a very long time and already starting to come close to the amazing 2014 season when the lifts and huts got buried.“There’s amazing skiing and snowboarding from summit to car park.”The Scottish Ski Resort experiencing its best Season in Six Years: 13+ Feet of Snow in 3 Weeks Buries Ski Lifts and Equipment Huts - ElectroverseTHERE IS NO CLIMATE EMERGENCY OF A TOO HOT CLIMATE

No, many times in the past century the winters have equalled or exceeded the blizzards of 2021. This is natural variability in the midst of the Holocene inter glacial of the Quaternary Ice Age. Think about it that is why the poles are ice covered and many glaciers survive the summer. We are lucky it is not glaciation time when Canada and much of US were covered by glacier ice 2 miles thick. We have enjoyed the natural warming and glacier melting and unfortunately fooled to think there is too much warming. Now trying to make the earth colder with the fraudulent Paris Accord in the middle of an ice age by reducing the most important life giving non polluting plant food CO2.Temperatures are in decline globally for past 5 years at least with increased moisture the result is winter blizzards with freezing more snowfall.The New Pause lengthens by another month to 5 years 7 monthsThe New Pause continues. To the end of December 2020, it was 5 years 4 months. To the end of January 2021, it was 5 years 6 months. To the end of February 2021, it is 5 years 7 months:https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/03/05/the-new-pause-lengthens-by-another-month-to-5-years-7-months/>A record-low temperature of -30.4C was recorded on Germany's highest mountain, Zugspitze on Tuesday night>Extreme weather warnings have been issued across Europe as the full force of gales and blizzard conditions from Siberia loom. The death toll from freezing temperatures across Europe has risen to at least 48.>Volume 90%>Watch video01:51>**Germany: Extreme weather causes problems for the homeless**>Extreme weather warnings were issued in parts of Europe as more blizzards hit on Thursday.>Since last Friday, when the freezing weather began, 21 people have died in Poland, six in the Czech Republic, five in Lithuania, four each in France and Slovakia, two each in Italy, Serbia and Romania and one each in Slovenia and the Netherlands. Even countries used to dealing with extreme weather such as Denmark and Sweden have recorded the worst conditions of the winter.>Record snowfall of 182 cm (72 inches) hit the northern Croatian town of Delnice.Cheer up! At least it's not 1947 - the winter of power cuts, no TV or baths and children sent to bed without dinner because there wasn't enough foodOn Thursday, January 23, snow began to fall in the South East. It was the start of Britain's most severe and protracted spell of bad weather during the 20th century.http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1242189/Cheer-At-1947--winter-power-cuts-TV-baths-children-sent-bed-dinner-wasnt-food.htmlhttp://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1242189/Cheer-At-1947--winter-power-cuts-TV-baths-children-sent-bed-dinner-wasnt-food.htmlOn Thursday, January 23, snow began to fall in the South East. It was the start of Britain's most severe and protracted spell of bad weather during the 20th century.>>The most snow in Naples, Italy since 1956“Cheer up! At least it's not 1947 - the winter of power cuts, no TV or baths and children sent to bed without dinner because there wasn't enough foodOn Thursday, January 23, snow began to fall in the South East. It was the start of Britain's most severe and protracted spell of bad weather during the 20th century.http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1242189/Cheer-At-1947--winter-power-cuts-TV-baths-children-sent-bed-dinner-wasnt-food.htmlOn Thursday, January 23, snow began to fall in the South East. It was the start of Britain's most severe and protracted spell of bad weather during the 20th century.Great Blizzard of 1978https://www.google.ca/search?sa=X&biw=1600&bih=699&sxsrf=ALeKk02BKv2uyIdElLdwdeNtl8-IzOiSNA:1614875034533&source=univ&tbm=isch&q=Great+Blizzard+of+1978&ved=2ahUKEwjGvKimhpfvAhXUPH0KHWctBRQQiR56BAgwEAI>**Great Blizzard of 1978**>Winter storm>The Great Blizzard of 1978 was a historic winter storm that struck the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes regions from Wednesday, January 25 through Friday, January 27, 1978. It is often cited as one of the most severe blizzards in US history. Wikipedia (Great Blizzard of 1978)>Maximum snowfall or ice accretion (great blizzard of 1978 maximum snowfall or ice accretion): 52 in (130 cm) Muskegon (Muskegon - Google Search), Michigan (Michigan - Google Search)>Lowest pressure (great blizzard of 1978 lowest pressure): 955.5 mb (28.22 inHg)>Areas affected (great blizzard of 1978 areas affected): Central United States (Central United States), Eastern United States (Eastern United States), Eastern Canada (Eastern Canada - Google Search)>Start date (great blizzard of 1978 start date): 1978>Formed (great blizzard of 1978 formed): January 24, 1978>Damage (great blizzard of 1978 damage): 73 million USD”W.NOAA published temperatures charts for the past 5 years for all around the world and they all show a decline in temperatures. Usually NOAA fudges the data to create the fiction of linear warming which is a political fantasy. Have a look and worry.Swings in temperature are natural variability and living in the middle of an ice age as we do means the swing away from warming is a very unhappy prospect.Remember in the science of climate severe snowfall stands alone as the harbinger of glaciation when increasing and very welcome deglaciation when melting. The reason is the snow albedo that has the potential of extending this years winter impact forward for decades, centuries, thousands of years and millions of years as ice. The alarmist fooled by the warming recovery of the bitter cold thought a new trend had happened and predicted the end of snow. They were terribly wrong as were their global warming hypothesis.UN posted a formal report projecting milder winters from global warming in 2001 and the evidence is 97% of alarmist scientists weighted in support.>What Models Say:>♦ IPCC TAR (2001) (Working Group II - IPCC): *“Milder winter temperatures will ****decrease heavy snowstorms****“*>♦ Kunkel et al., 2002 (Assessment of Potential Effects of Climate Change on Heavy Lake-Effect Snowstorms Near Lake Erie): *“Surface conditions favorable for heavy lake-effect ****snow decreased in frequency by 50% and 90%**** ****for the HadCM2 and CGCM1 ****[models]****, respectively, by the late 21st Century****. ****This reduction was due almost entirely to**** …**** an increase in average winter air temperatures****.”*>♦ IPCC AR4 (2007) (https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch11s11-5.html): *“****Snow season length and snow depth are very likely to decrease in most of North America****“*>♦ Kapnick and Delworth, 2013 (http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00528.1): *“In response to idealized radiative forcing changes, both models produce similar global-scale responses in which ****global-mean temperature and total precipitation increase while snowfall decreases****. … By using a simple multivariate model, ****temperature is shown to drive these trends by decreasing snowfall almost everywhere” ****(**press release* (https://phys.org/news/2013-02-polar-regions-rest.html)*) “****In North America, the greatest reductions in snowfall will occur along the northeast coast****, in the mountainous west, and in the Pacific Northwest. Coastal regions from ****Virginia to Maine … will get less than half the amount of snow currently received****.”*https://notrickszone.com/2017/01/19/defying-ipcc-models-u-s-blizzard-frequency-has-nearly-quadrupled-since-1960-as-u-s-continues-cooling/https://notrickszone.com/2013/04/04/climate-science-humiliated-earlier-model-prognoses-of-warmer-winters-now-todays-laughingstocks/>By P Gosselin (https://notrickszone.com/author/admin/) on>4. April 2013>**by P. Gosselin, and NTZ reader Jimbo**>“The Earth has a fever,” we were told. “The science is settled and the debate is over. Scientists are unanimous – 97% of them agree: climate change is real, and is happening now, and we’ve got to act quickly.”>Over more than two decades we were told again and again that everywhere was warming faster than everywhere else – **especially winters were warming up quickly**. Snow was becoming a thing of the past and children soon weren’t going to know what it is. “The warm winters that we are seeing are just a harbinger of what’s to come,” the media declared just a couple of years ago. The scientists were cock-sure.>Today we are finding that precisely the exact opposite is happening. Winters in Europe have turned colder and more severe. Central Europe has seen its 5th consecutive colder than normal winter in a row – a record since measurements began in the 19th century.>Climate scientists first reacted by claiming, “*One winter does not make a trend*“. Then they said that the cold winters were a local phenomenon. Finally they were forced to recently claim, “Cold winters now fit the picture of global warming!”But a pause in warming temperatures for more than last 5 years using alarmist bias data cannot be explained away.The difference between the lengths of the New Pause in versions 4 (6 years 6 months) and 5 (5 years 8 months) of the HadCRUT dataset to December 2020 is a whopping 10 months, which the newer version wipes off the New Pause. As Willis Eschenbach has recently pointed out, the tamperings between versions 4 and 5 chiefly affect recent years: for once, the earlier years of the HadCRUT dataset have been left comparatively unadjusted. Could it possibly be that the emergence of this new Pause is giving the usual suspects – er – pause for thought?Deadly 'Beast from the East' winter blizzard batters EuropeList of failed predictionsWhat follows are dozens of predictions for warmer winters made not long ago during the 2000s, many by leading scientists. What started as a simple Google search, turned into a list of false winter predictions for Central Europe, particularly Germany. By sheer coincidence reader Jimbo sent over his own list of false wintertime predictions made by “experts” in the US and Great Britain. I’ve combined the two lists and present one long list to you. Of course we still have to wait (90 years in some cases) to see how some of the predictions inevitably turn out, but current trends do not bode well for them.Unfortunately, many of these predictions were passed on as reliable predictions to various sectors of industry, so that they could prepare for the new future that awaited. Many of these industries, like tourism, skiing, agriculture, highway maintenance, etc. based their investment decisions in part on these forecasts. As we now know, they turned out to be false – completely false – and the costs will be billions. Readers are welcome to suggest other false wintertime predictions, which we will gladly add to the list.Failed winter climate predictions(The first 33 concern mostly Germany and Central Europe)1. “Due to global warming, the coming winters in the local regions will become milder.” Stefan Rahmstorf, Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research, University of Potsdam, 8 Feb 2006***2. “Milder winters, drier summers: Climate study shows a need to adapt in Saxony Anhalt.”Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Press Release, 10 Jan 2010.****3. “More heat waves, no snow in the winter“ … “Climate models… over 20 times more precise than the UN IPCC global models. In no other country do we have more precise calculations of climate consequences. They should form the basis for political planning. … Temperatures in the wintertime will rise the most … there will be less cold air coming to Central Europe from the east. …In the Alps winters will be 2°C warmer already between 2021 and 2050.”Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, 2 Sept 2008.****4. “The new Germany will be characterized by dry-hot summers and warm-wet winters.“Wilhelm Gerstengarbe and Peter Werner, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), 2 March 2007****5. “Clear climate trends are seen from the computer simulations. Foremost the winter months will be warmer all over Germany. Depending of CO2 emissions, temperatures will rise by up to 4°C, in the Alps by up to 5°C.”Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, 7 Dec 2009.****6. “In summer under certain conditions the scientists reckon with a complete melting of the Arctic sea ice. For Europe we expect an increase in drier and warmer summers. Winters on the other hand will be warmer and wetter.”Erich Roeckner, Max Planck Institute, Hamburg, 29 Sept 2005.****7. “The more than ‘unusually‘ warm January weather is yet ‘another extreme event’, ‘a harbinger of the winters that are ahead of us’. … The global temperature will ‘increase every year by 0.2°C'”Michael Müller, Socialist, State Secretary in the Federal Ministry of Environment, in Die Zeit, 15 Jan 2007****8. “Harsh winters likely will be more seldom and precipitation in the wintertime will be heavier everywhere. However, due to the milder temperatures, it’ll fall more often as rain than as snow.”Online-Atlas of the Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft, 20109. “We’ve mostly had mild winters in which only a few cold months were scattered about, like January 2009. This winter is a cold outlier, but that doesn’t change the picture as a whole. Generally it’s going to get warmer, also in the wintertime.”Gerhard Müller-Westermeier, German Weather Service (DWD), 26 Jan 2010****10. “Winters with strong frost and lots of snow like we had 20 years ago will cease to exist at our latitudes.”Mojib Latif, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, 1 April 2000****11. “Good bye winter. Never again snow?”Spiegel, 1 April 2000****12. “In the northern part of the continent there likely will be some benefits in the form of reduced cold periods and higher agricultural yields. But the continued increase in temperatures will cancel off these benefits. In some regions up to 60 percent of the species could die off by 2080.”3Sat, 26 June 2003****13. “Although the magnitude of the trends shows large variation among different models, Miller et al. (2006) find that none of the 14 models exhibits a trend towards a lower NAM index and higher arctic SLP.”IPCC 2007 4AR, (quoted by Georg Hoffmann)****14. “Based on the rising temperature, less snow will be expected regionally. While currently 1/3 of the precipitation in the Alps falls as snow, the snow-share of precipitation by the end of the century could end up being just one sixth.”Germanwatch, Page 7, Feb 2007****15. “Assuming there will be a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere, as is projected by the year 2030. The consequences could be hotter and drier summers, and winters warmer and wetter. Such a warming will be proportionately higher at higher elevations – and especially will have a powerful impact on the glaciers of the Firn regions.”and” The ski areas that reliably have snow will shift from 1200 meters to 1500 meters elevation by the year 2050; because of the climate prognoses warmer winters have to be anticipated.”Scinexx Wissenschaft Magazin, 26 Mar 2002****16. “Yesterday’s snow … Because temperatures in the Alps are rising quickly, there will be more precipitation in many places. But because it will rain more often then it snows, this will be bad news for tourists. For many skilifts this means the end of business.”Daniela Jacob, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, 8 Aug 2006****17. “Spring will begin in January starting in 2030.”Die Welt, 30 Sept 2010****18. “Ice, snow, and frost will disappear, i.e. milder winters” … “Unusually warm winters without snow and ice are now being viewed by many as signs of climate change.” Schleswig Holstein NABU, 10 Feb 2007****19. “Good bye winter… In the northern hemisphere the deviations are much greater according to NOAA calculations, in some areas up to 5°C. That has consequences says DWD meteorologist Müller-Westermeier: When the snowline rises over large areas, the bare ground is warmed up even more by sunlight. This amplifies global warming. A process that is uncontrollable – and for this reason understandably arouses old childhood fears: First the snow disappears, and then winter.”Die Zeit, 16 Mar 2007****20. “Warm in the winter, dry in the summer … Long, hard winters in Germany remain rare: By 2085 large areas of the Alps and Central German Maountains will be almost free of snow. Because air temperatures in winter will rise more quickly than in summer, there will be more precipitation. ‘However, much of it will fall as rain,’ says Daniela Jacob of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology.”FOCUS, 24 May 2006****21. “Consequences and impacts for regional agriculture: Hotter summers, milder + shorter winters (palm trees!). Agriculture: More CO2 in the air, higher temperatures, foremost in winter.”Dr. Michael Schirmer, University of Bremen, presentation of 2 Feb 2007****22. “Winters: wet + mild” Bavarian State Ministry for Agriculture, presentation 23 Aug 2007****23. “The climate model prognoses currently indicate that the following climate changes will occur: Increase in minimum temperatures in the winter.”Chamber of Agriculture of Lower Saxony Date: 6 July 2009****24. “Both the prognoses for global climate development and the prognoses for the climatic development of the Fichtel Mountains clearly show a warming of the average temperature, whereby especially the winter months will be greatly impacted.”Willi Seifert, University of Bayreuth, diploma thesis, p. 203, 7 July 2004****25. “Already in the year 2025 the conditions for winter sports in the Fichtel Mountains will develop negatively, especially with regards to ‘natural’ snow conditions and for so-called snow-making potential. A financially viable ski business operation after about the year 2025 appears under these conditions to be extremely improbable (Seifert, 2004)”.Andreas Matzarakis, University of Freiburg Meteorological Institute, 26 July 2006****26. “Skiing among palm trees? … For this reason I would advise no one in the Berchtesgadener Land to invest in a ski-lift. The probability of earning money with the global warming is getting less and less.”Hartmut Graßl, Director Emeritus, Max Planck-Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, page 3, 4 Mar 2006****27. “Climate warming leads to an increasingly higher snow line. The number of future ski resorts that can be expected to have snow is reducing. […] Climate change does not only lead to higher temperatures, but also to changes in the precipitation ratios in summer and winter. […] In the wintertime more precipitation is to be anticipated. However, it will fall more often as rain, and less often as snow, in the future.”Hans Elsasser, Director of the Geographical Institute of the University of Zurich, 4 Mar 2006****28. “All climate simulations – global and regional – were carried out at the Deutschen Klimarechenzentrum [German Climate Simulation Center]. […] In the winter months the temperature rise is from 1.5°C to 2°C and stretches from Scandinavia to the Mediterranean Sea. Only in regions that are directly influenced by the Atlantic (Great Britain, Portugal, parts of Spain) will the winter temperature increase be less (Fig. 1).”Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Press Release, Date: December 2007/Januar 2013.****29. “By the year 2050 … temperatures will rise 1.5 C to 2.5°C (summer) and 3°C (winter). … in the summer it will rain up to 40% less and in the winter up to 30% more.German Federal Department of Highways, 1 Sept 2010****30. “We are now at the threshold of making reliable statements about the future.“Daniela Jacob, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, page 44, 10/2001****31. “The scenarios of climate scientitsts are unanimous about one thing: In the future in Germany we will have to live with drier and drier summers and a lot more rain in the winters.”Gerhard Müller-Westermeier, German Weather Service (DWD), 20 May 2010****32. “In the wintertime the winds will be more from the west and will bring storms to Germany. Especially in western and southern Germany there will be flooding.“ FOCUS / Mojib Latif, Leibniz Institute for Ocean Sciences of the University of Kiel, 27 May 2006.****33. “While the increases in the springtime appear as rather modest, the (late)summer and winter months are showing an especially powerful warming trend.“State Ministry of Environment, Agriculture and Geology, Saxony, p. 133, Schriftenreihe Heft 25/2009.****34. “Warm Winters Result From Greenhouse Effect, Columbia Scientists Find, Using NASA Model …Despite appearing as part of a natural climate oscillation, the large increases in wintertime surface temperatures over the continents may therefore be attributable in large part to human activities,”Science Daily, Dr. Drew Shindell 4 June 1999****35. “Within a few years winter snowfall will become a very rare and exciting event. … Children just aren’t going to know what snow is.”David Viner, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, 20 March 2000****36. “This data confirms what many gardeners believe – winters are not as hard as they used to be. … And if recent trends continue a white Christmas in Wales could certainly be a thing of the past.”BBC, Dr Jeremy Williams, Bangor University, Lecturer in Geomatics, 20 Dec 2004****37. The rise in temperature associated with climate change leads to a general reduction in the proportion of precipitation falling as snow, and a consequent reduction in many areas in the duration of snow cover.”Global Environmental Change, Nigel W. Arnell, Geographer, 1 Oct 1999****38. “Computer models predict that the temperature rise will continue at that accelerated pace if emissions of heat-trapping gases are not reduced, and also predict that warming will be especially pronounced in the wintertime.”Star News, William K. Stevens, New York Times, 11 Mar 2000****39. “In a warmer world, less winter precipitation falls as snow and the melting of winter snow occurs earlier in spring. Even without any changes in precipitation intensity, both of these effects lead to a shift in peak river runoff to winter and early spring, away from summer and autumn.”Nature, T. P. Barnett et. al., 17 Nov 2005*****40. “We are beginning to approximate the kind of warming you should see in the winter season.”Star News, Mike Changery, National Climatic Data Center, 11 Mar 2000****41. “Milder winter temperatures will decrease heavy snowstorms but could cause an increase in freezing rain if average daily temperatures fluctuate about the freezing point.”IPCC Climate Change, 2001****42. “Global climate change is likely to be accompanied by an increase in the frequency and intensity of heat waves, as well as warmer summers and milder winters…9.4.2. Decreased Mortality Resulting from Milder Winters … One study estimates a decrease in annual cold-related deaths of 20,000 in the UK by the 2050s (a reduction of 25%)”IPCC Climate Change, 2001****43. “The lowest winter temperatures are likely to increase more than average winter temperature in northern Europe. …The duration of the snow season is very likely to shorten in all of Europe, and snow depth is likely to decrease in at least most of Europe.”IPCC Climate Change, 2007****44. “Snowlines are going up in altitude all over the world. The idea that we will get less snow is absolutely in line with what we expect from global warming.”WalesOnline, Sir John Houghton – atmospheric physicist, 30 June 2007****45. “In the UK wetter winters are expected which will lead to more extreme rainfall, whereas summers are expected to get drier. However, it is possible under climate change that there could be an increase of extreme rainfall even under general drying.”Telegraph, Dr. Peter Stott, Met Office, 24 July 2007****46. “Winter has gone forever and we should officially bring spring forward instead. … There is no winter any more despite a cold snap before Christmas. It is nothing like years ago when I was younger. There is a real problem with spring because so much is flowering so early year to year.”Express, Dr Nigel Taylor, Curator of Kew Gardens, 8 Feb 2008****—–End—Oh, just one more:47. “The past is no longer a guide to the future. We no longer have a stationary climate,”…Independent, Dr. Peter Stott, Met Office, 27 Jul 2007****New entries, thanks to readers!48. (h/t Paul M) “It is consistent with the climate change message. It is exactly what we expect winters to be like – warmer and wetter, and dryer and hotter summers. …the winter we have just seen is consistent with the type of weather we expect to see more and more in the future.”Wayne Elliott, Met Office meteorologist, BBC, 27 Feb 2007****49. ” If your decisions depend on what’s happening at these very fine scales of 25 km or even 5 km resolution then you probably shouldn’t be making irreversible investment decisions now.”Myles Allen, “one of the UK’s leading climate modellers”, Oxford University, 18 June 2009****50. “It’s great that the government has decided to put together such a scientifically robust analysis of the potential impacts of climate change in the UK.”Keith Allott, WWF-UK, 18 June 2009****51. (h/t: John Shade) “The data collected by experts from the university [of Bangor] suggests that a white Christmas on Snowdon – the tallest mountain in England and Wales – may one day become no more than a memory.”BBC News, 20 Dec 2004[BBC 2013: “Snowdon Mountain Railway will be shut over the Easter weekend after it was hit by 30ft (9.1m) snow drifts.”]****52. (h/t: AngusPangus) “Spring is arriving earlier each year as a result of climate change, the first ‘conclusive proof’ that global warming is altering the timing of the seasons, scientists announced yesterday.”Guardian, 26 Aug 2006.****53. (h/t: trustyetverify) “Given the increase in the average winter temperature it is obvious that the number of frost days and the number of days that the snow remains, will decline. For Europe the models indicate that cold winters such as at the end of the 20th century, that happened at an average once every ten years, will gradually disappear in the course of the century.” (p. 19), and“…but it might well be that nothing remains of the snowjoy in the Hautes Fagnes but some yellowed photos because of the climate change … moreover an increase in winter precipitation would certainly not be favorable for recreation!” (p38)Jean-Pascal van Ypersele and Philippe Marbaix, Greenpeace, 2004****54. (h/t: mobihci) “Shindell’s model predicts that if greenhouse gases continue to increase, winter in the Northern Hemisphere will continue to warm. ‘In our model, we’re seeing a very large signal of global warming and it’s not a naturally occurring thing. It’s most likely linked to greenhouse gases,’ he said.NASA GISS, 2 June 1999****55. “We have seen that in the last years and decades that winters have become much milder than before and that there isn’t nearly as much snowfall. All simulations show this trend will continue in the future and that we have to expect an intense warming in the Alps. […] especially in the foothills, snow will turn to rain and winter sports will no longer be possible anymore.”Mojib Latif, Leibnitz Institute for Oceanography, University of Kiel, February 17, 2005****56. Planning for a snowless future: “Our study is already showing that that there will be a much worse situation in 20 years.”Christopher Krull, Black Forest Tourism Association / Spiegel, 17 Feb 2005****57. (h/t: ab) “Rhineland-Palatinate, as will be the case for all of Central Europe, will be affected by higher than average warming rates and winters with snow disappearing increasingly.”Prof. Dr. Hartmut Grassl, “internationally renowned meteorologist”, Director Emeritus, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, 20 Nov 2008****58. “With the pace of global warming increasing, some climate change experts predict that the Scottish ski industry will cease to exist within 20 years.”Guardian, 14 February 2004[4 January 2013: “Nevis Range, The Lecht, Cairngorm, Glenshee and Glencoe all remain closed today due to the heavy snow and strong winds.”]****59. “Unfortunately, it’s just getting too hot for the Scottish ski industry.”David Viner, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, 14 Feb 2004****60. For the Baltic ringed seal, climate change could mean its demise warned a team of scientists at the Baltic Sea Experiment (Baltex) conference in Goteborg. This is because the warming leads to the ice on the Baltic Sea to melt earlier and earlier every year.”Spiegel, 3 June 2006[The Local 2013: “Late-season freeze sets Baltic ice record … I’ve never seen this much ice this late in the season.”]****

It will be much longer than you or any of your descendants will need to have any concern about it. Here are some other alarmist climate predictions you probably missed:1. “Due to global warming, the coming winters in the local regions will become milder.”Stefan Rahmstorf, Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research, University of Potsdam, February 8, 2006****2. “Milder winters, drier summers: Climate study shows a need to adapt in Saxony Anhalt.”Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Press Release, January 10, 2010.****3. “More heat waves, no snow in the winter… Climate models… over 20 times more precise than the UN IPCC global models. In no other country do we have more precise calculations of climate consequences. They should form the basis for political planning… Temperatures in the wintertime will rise the most… there will be less cold air coming to Central Europe from the east…In the Alps winters will be 2°C warmer already between 2021 and 2050.”Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, September 2, 2008.****4. “The new Germany will be characterized by dry-hot summers and warm-wet winters.”Wilhelm Gerstengarbe and Peter Werner, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), March 2, 2007****5. “Clear climate trends are seen from the computer simulations. Foremost the winter months will be warmer all over Germany. Depending of CO2 emissions, temperatures will rise by up to 4°C, in the Alps by up to 5°C.”Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, 7 Dec 2009.****6. “In summer under certain conditions the scientists reckon with a complete melting of the Arctic sea ice. For Europe we expect an increase in drier and warmer summers. Winters on the other hand will be warmer and wetter.”Erich Roeckner, Max Planck Institute, Hamburg, 29 Sept 2005.****7. “The more than ‘unusually ‘warm January weather is yet ‘another extreme event’, ‘a harbinger of the winters that are ahead of us’. … The global temperature will ‘increase every year by 0.2°C’”Michael Müller, Socialist, State Secretary in the Federal Ministry of Environment,Die Zeit, 15 Jan 2007****8. “Harsh winters likely will be more seldom and precipitation in the wintertime will be heavier everywhere. However, due to the milder temperatures, it’ll fall more often as rain than as snow.”Online-Atlas of the Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft, 2010****9. “We’ve mostly had mild winters in which only a few cold months were scattered about, like January 2009. This winter is a cold outlier, but that doesn’t change the picture as a whole. Generally it’s going to get warmer, also in the wintertime.”Gerhard Müller-Westermeier, German Weather Service (DWD), 26 Jan 2010****10. “Winters with strong frost and lots of snow like we had 20 years ago will cease to exist at our latitudes.”Mojib Latif, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, 1 April 2000****11. “Good bye winter. Never again snow?”Spiegel, 1 April 2000****12. “In the northern part of the continent there likely will be some benefits in the form of reduced cold periods and higher agricultural yields. But the continued increase in temperatures will cancel off these benefits. In some regions up to 60% of the species could die off by 2080.”3Sat, 26 June 2003****13. “Although the magnitude of the trends shows large variation among different models, Miller et al. (2006) find that none of the 14 models exhibits a trend towards a lower NAM index and higher arctic SLP.”IPCC 2007 4AR, (quoted by Georg Hoffmann)****14. “Based on the rising temperature, less snow will be expected regionally. While currently 1/3 of the precipitation in the Alps falls as snow, the snow-share of precipitation by the end of the century could end up being just one sixth.”Germanwatch, Page 7, Feb 2007****15. “Assuming there will be a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere, as is projected by the year 2030. The consequences could be hotter and drier summers, and winters warmer and wetter. Such a warming will be proportionately higher at higher elevations – and especially will have a powerful impact on the glaciers of the Firn regions.”and“ The ski areas that reliably have snow will shift from 1200 meters to 1500 meters elevation by the year 2050; because of the climate prognoses warmer winters have to be anticipated.”Scinexx Wissenschaft Magazin, 26 Mar 2002****16. “Yesterday’s snow… Because temperatures in the Alps are rising quickly, there will be more precipitation in many places. But because it will rain more often than it snows, this will be bad news for tourists. For many ski lifts this means the end of business.”Daniela Jacob, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, 8 Aug 2006****17. “Spring will begin in January starting in 2030.”Die Welt, 30 Sept 2010****18. “Ice, snow, and frost will disappear, i.e. milder winters” … “Unusually warm winters without snow and ice are now being viewed by many as signs of climate change.”Schleswig Holstein NABU, 10 Feb 2007****19. “Good bye winter… In the northern hemisphere the deviations are much greater according to NOAA calculations, in some areas up to 5°C. That has consequences says DWD meteorologist Müller-Westermeier: When the snowline rises over large areas, the bare ground is warmed up even more by sunlight. This amplifies global warming. A process that is uncontrollable – and for this reason understandably arouses old childhood fears: First the snow disappears, and then winter.”Die Zeit, 16 Mar 2007****20. “Warm in the winter, dry in the summer … Long, hard winters in Germany remain rare: By 2085 large areas of the Alps and Central German Mountains will be almost free of snow. Because air temperatures in winter will rise more quickly than in summer, there will be more precipitation. ‘However, much of it will fall as rain,’ says Daniela Jacob of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology.”FOCUS, 24 May 2006****21. “Consequences and impacts for regional agriculture: Hotter summers, milder plus shorter winters (palm trees!). Agriculture: More CO2 in the air, higher temperatures, foremost in winter.”Dr. Michael Schirmer, University of Bremen, presentation of 2 Feb 2007****22. “Winters: wet and mild”Bavarian State Ministry for Agriculture, presentation 23 Aug 2007****23. “The climate model prognoses currently indicate that the following climate changes will occur: Increase in minimum temperatures in the winter.”Chamber of Agriculture of Lower Saxony Date: 6 July 2009****24. “Both the prognoses for global climate development and the prognoses for the climatic development of the Fichtel Mountains clearly show a warming of the average temperature, whereby especially the winter months will be greatly impacted.”Willi Seifert, University of Bayreuth, diploma thesis, p. 203, 7 July 2004****25. “Already in the year 2025 the conditions for winter sports in the Fichtel Mountains will develop negatively, especially with regards to ‘natural’ snow conditions and for so-called snow-making potential. A financially viable ski business operation after about the year 2025 appears under these conditions to be extremely improbable (Seifert, 2004)”.Andreas Matzarakis, University of Freiburg Meteorological Institute, 26 July 2006****26. “Skiing among palm trees? … For this reason I would advise no one in the Berchtesgadener Land to invest in a ski-lift. The probability of earning money with the global warming is getting less and less.”Hartmut Graßl, Director Emeritus,Max Planck-Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, page 3, 4 Mar 2006****27. “Climate warming leads to an increasingly higher snow line. The number of future ski resorts that can be expected to have snow is reducing. […] Climate change does not only lead to higher temperatures, but also to changes in the precipitation ratios in summer and winter. […] In the wintertime more precipitation is to be anticipated. However, it will fall more often as rain, and less often as snow, in the future.”Hans Elsasser, Director of the Geographical Institute of the University of Zurich, 4 Mar 2006****28. “All climate simulations – global and regional – were carried out at the Deutschen Klimarechenzentrum [German Climate Simulation Center]. […] In the winter months the temperature rise is from 1.5°C to 2°C and stretches from Scandinavia to the Mediterranean Sea. Only in regions that are directly influenced by the Atlantic (Great Britain, Portugal, parts of Spain) will the winter temperature increase be less (Fig. 1).”Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Press Release, Date: December 2007/January 2013.****29. “By the year 2050 … temperatures will rise 1.5ºC to 2.5°C (summer) and 3°C (winter). … in the summer it will rain up to 40% less and in the winter up to 30% more.German Federal Department of Highways, 1 Sept 2010****30. “We are now at the threshold of making reliable statements about the future.”Daniela Jacob, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, page 44, 10/2001****31. “The scenarios of climate scientists are unanimous about one thing: In the future in Germany we will have to live with drier and drier summers and a lot more rain in the winters.”Gerhard Müller-Westermeier, German Weather Service (DWD), 20 May 2010****32. “In the wintertime the winds will be more from the west and will bring storms to Germany. Especially in western and southern Germany there will be flooding.” FOCUS / Mojib Latif, Leibniz Institute for Ocean Sciences of the University of Kiel, 27 May 2006.****33. “While the increases in the springtime appear as rather modest, the (late)summer and winter months are showing an especially powerful warming trend.”State Ministry of Environment, Agriculture and Geology, Saxony, p. 133, Schriftenreihe Heft 25/2009.****34. “Warm Winters Result From Greenhouse Effect, Columbia Scientists Find, Using NASA Model … Despite appearing as part of a natural climate oscillation, the large increases in wintertime surface temperatures over the continents may therefore be attributable in large part to human activities,”Science Daily, Dr. Drew Shindell 4 June 1999****35. “Within a few years winter snowfall will become a very rare and exciting event. … Children just aren’t going to know what snow is.”David Viner, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, 20 March 2000****36. “This data confirms what many gardeners believe – winters are not as hard as they used to be. … And if recent trends continue a white Christmas in Wales could certainly be a thing of the past.”BBC, Dr Jeremy Williams, Bangor University, Lecturer in Geomatics, 20 Dec 2004****37. The rise in temperature associated with climate change leads to a general reduction in the proportion of precipitation falling as snow, and a consequent reduction in many areas in the duration of snow cover.”Global Environmental Change, Nigel W. Arnell, Geographer, 1 Oct 1999****38. “Computer models predict that the temperature rise will continue at that accelerated pace if emissions of heat-trapping gases are not reduced, and also predict that warming will be especially pronounced in the wintertime.”Star News, William K. Stevens, New York Times, 11 Mar 2000****39. “In a warmer world, less winter precipitation falls as snow and the melting of winter snow occurs earlier in spring. Even without any changes in precipitation intensity, both of these effects lead to a shift in peak river runoff to winter and early spring, away from summer and autumn.”Nature, T. P. Barnett et. al., 17 Nov 2005*****40. “We are beginning to approximate the kind of warming you should see in the winter season.”Star News, Mike Changery, National Climatic Data Center, 11 Mar 2000****41. “Milder winter temperatures will decrease heavy snowstorms but could cause an increase in freezing rain if average daily temperatures fluctuate about the freezing point.”IPCC Climate Change, 2001****42. “Global climate change is likely to be accompanied by an increase in the frequency and intensity of heat waves, as well as warmer summers and milder winters…9.4.2. Decreased Mortality Resulting from Milder Winters … One study estimates a decrease in annual cold-related deaths of 20,000 in the UK by the 2050s (a reduction of 25%)”IPCC Climate Change, 2001****43. “The lowest winter temperatures are likely to increase more than average winter temperature in northern Europe. …The duration of the snow season is very likely to shorten in all of Europe, and snow depth is likely to decrease in at least most of Europe.”IPCC Climate Change, 2007****44. “Snowlines are going up in altitude all over the world. The idea that we will get less snow is absolutely in line with what we expect from global warming.”WalesOnline, Sir John Houghton – atmospheric physicist, 30 June 2007****45. “In the UK wetter winters are expected which will lead to more extreme rainfall, whereas summers are expected to get drier. However, it is possible under climate change that there could be an increase of extreme rainfall even under general drying.”Telegraph, Dr. Peter Stott, Met Office, 24 July 2007****46. “Winter has gone forever and we should officially bring spring forward instead. … There is no winter any more despite a cold snap before Christmas. It is nothing like years ago when I was younger. There is a real problem with spring because so much is flowering so early year to year.”Express, Dr Nigel Taylor, Curator of Kew Gardens, 8 Feb 2008****47. “The past is no longer a guide to the future. We no longer have a stationary climate,”…Independent, Dr. Peter Stott, Met Office, 27 Jul 2007****48. “It is consistent with the climate change message. It is exactly what we expect winters to be like – warmer and wetter, and dryer and hotter summers. …the winter we have just seen is consistent with the type of weather we expect to see more and more in the future.”Wayne Elliott, Met Office meteorologist, BBC, 27 Feb 2007****49. “ If your decisions depend on what’s happening at these very fine scales of 25 km or even 5 km resolution then you probably shouldn’t be making irreversible investment decisions now.”Myles Allen, “one of the UK’s leading climate modellers”, Oxford University, 18 June 2009****50. “It’s great that the government has decided to put together such a scientifically robust analysis of the potential impacts of climate change in the UK.”Keith Allott, WWF-UK, 18 June 2009****51. “The data collected by experts from the university [of Bangor] suggests that a white Christmas on Snowdon – the tallest mountain in England and Wales – may one day become no more than a memory.”BBC News, 20 Dec 2004[BBC 2013: “Snowdon Mountain Railway will be shut over the Easter weekend after it was hit by 30ft (9.1m) snow drifts.”]****52. “Spring is arriving earlier each year as a result of climate change, the first ‘conclusive proof’ that global warming is altering the timing of the seasons, scientists announced yesterday.”Guardian, 26 Aug 2006.****53. “Given the increase in the average winter temperature it is obvious that the number of frost days and the number of days that the snow remains, will decline. For Europe the models indicate that cold winters such as at the end of the 20th century, that happened at an average once every ten years, will gradually disappear in the course of the century.” (p. 19), and“…but it might well be that nothing remains of the snowjoy in the Hautes Fagnes but some yellowed photos because of the climate change … moreover an increase in winter precipitation would certainly not be favorable for recreation!” (p38)Jean-Pascal van Ypersele and Philippe Marbaix, Greenpeace, 2004****54. “Shindell’s model predicts that if greenhouse gases continue to increase, winter in the Northern Hemisphere will continue to warm. ‘In our model, we’re seeing a very large signal of global warming and it’s not a naturally occurring thing. It’s most likely linked to greenhouse gases,’ he said.NASA, GISS, 2 June 1999****55. “We have seen that in the last years and decades that winters have become much milder than before and that there isn’t nearly as much snowfall. All simulations show this trend will continue in the future and that we have to expect an intense warming in the Alps…especially in the foothills, snow will turn to rain and winter sports will no longer be possible anymore.”Mojib Latif, Leibnitz Institute for Oceanography, University of Kiel, February 17, 2005****56. Planning for a snowless future: “Our study is already showing that that there will be a much worse situation in 20 years.”Christopher Krull, Black Forest Tourism Association / Spiegel, 17 Feb 2005****57. “Rhineland-Palatinate, as will be the case for all of Central Europe, will be affected by higher than average warming rates and winters with snow disappearing increasingly.”Prof. Dr. Hartmut Grassl, “internationally renowned meteorologist”, Director Emeritus, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, 20 Nov 2008****58. “With the pace of global warming increasing, some climate change experts predict that the Scottish ski industry will cease to exist within 20 years.”Guardian, 14 February 2004[4 January 2013: “Nevis Range, The Lecht, Cairngorm, Glenshee and Glencoe all remain closed today due to the heavy snow and strong winds.”]****59. “Unfortunately, it’s just getting too hot for the Scottish ski industry.”David Viner, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, 14 Feb 2004****60. “For the Baltic ringed seal, climate change could mean its demise” warned a team of scientists at the Baltic Sea Experiment (Baltex) conference in Goteborg. “This is because the warming leads to the ice on the Baltic Sea to melt earlier and earlier every year.”Spiegel, 3 June 2006[The Local 2013: “Late-season freeze sets Baltic ice record … I’ve never seen this much ice this late in the season.”]****61. Forecasters Predict More Mild Winter for EuropeReuters, Nov 09, 2012FRANKFURT – European weather in the coming winter now looks more likely to be mild than in previous studies, German meteorologist Georg Mueller said in a monthly report.“The latest runs are generally in favor of a milder than normal winter, especially over northern Europe.”****62. “Spring is arriving earlier each year as a result of climate change, the first ‘conclusive proof’ that global warming is altering the timing of the seasons, scientists announced yesterday.”Guardian, 26 August 2006.http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2006/aug/26/climatechange.climatechangeenvironment****63. “Given the increase in the average winter temperature it is obvious that the number of frost days and the number of days that the snow remains, will decline. For Europe the models indicate that cold winters such as at the end of the 20th century, that happened at an average once every ten years, will gradually disappear in the course of the century.” (p19)“…but it might well be that nothing remains of the snowjoy in the Hautes Fagnes but some yellowed photos because of the climate change … moreover an increase in winter precipitation would certainly not be favorable for recreation!” (p38)Impact of the climate change in Belgium (translated from Dutch).Jean-Pascal van Ypersele and Philippe Marbaix for Greenpeace, 2004****64. “The hottest year since 1659 spells global doom”Telegraph December 14, 2006http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1536852/The-hottest-year-since-1659-spells-global-doom.html****65. “Jay Wynne from the BBC Weather Centre presents reports for typical days in 2020, 2050 and 2080 as predicted by our experiment.”BBCs Climate Change Experimenthttp://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/climateexperiment/whattheymean/theuk.shtml****66. “Cold winters would gradually disappear.” (p.4)67. “In Belgium, snow on the ground could become increasingly rare but there would be plenty of grey sky and rain in winter..” (p.6)The Greenpeace report “Impacts of climate change in Belgium” is available in an abbreviated version in English:http://www.greenpeace.org/belgium/PageFiles/19049/SumIB_uk.pdfImpacts of climate change in BelgiumJean-Pascal van Ypersele and Philippe Marbaix for Greenpeace, 2004Climate scientist van Ypersele is Vice Chair of the IPCC.****68. “Warmer and Wetter Winters in Europe and Western North America Linked to Increasing Greenhouse Gases.”NASA, June 2, 1999http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/19990602/****69. “The global temperature will increase every year by 0.2°C”Michael Müller, Socialist, State Secretary in the Federal Ministry of Environment, in Die Zeit, January 15, 2007****70. “Unfortunately, it’s just getting too hot for the Scottish ski industry. It is very vulnerable to climate change; the resorts have always been marginal in terms of snow and, as the rate of climate change increases, it is hard to see a long-term future.”David Viner, of the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia.February 14, 2004http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2004/feb/14/climatechange.scotland****71. “Climate change will have the effect of pushing more and more winter sports higher and higher up mountains,…”Rolf Burki and his colleagues at the University of Zurichhttp://www.theguardian.com/world/2003/dec/03/research.sciencenews****72. “ In the future, snowdrops will be out in January, primroses in February, mayflowers and lilac in April and wild roses in May, the ponds will be full of tadpoles in March and a month later even the oaks will be in full leaf. If that isn’t enough, autumn probably won’t begin until October.”Geraint Smith, Science Correspondent, Standardhttp://www.standard.co.uk/news/british-seasons-start-to-shift-6358532.html****73. “The West Side Highway [which runs along the Hudson River] will be under water. And there will be tape across the windows across the street because of high winds. And the same birds won’t be there. The trees in the median strip will change….There will be more police cars….[since] you know what happens to crime when the heat goes up.”Dr. James Hansen, 1988, in an interview with author Rob Reiss.Reiss asked how the greenhouse effect was likely to affect the neighborhood below Hansen’s office in NYC in the next 20 years.****74. March 20, 2000, from The Independent, According to Dr David Viner of the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit, snowfall in Britain would become “a very rare and exciting event” and “children just aren’t going to know what snow is.”****75. September 2006, Arnold Schwarzenegger signing California’s anti-emissions law, “We simply must do everything in our power to slow down global warming before it is too late…The science is clear. The global warming debate is over.”****76. 1990 Actress Meryl Streep “By the year 2000 – that’s less than ten years away–earth’s climate will be warmer than it’s been in over 100,000 years. If we don’t do something, there’ll be enormous calamities in a very short time.”****77. April 2008, Media Mogul Ted Turner on Charlie Rose (On not taking drastic action to correct global warming) “Not doing it will be catastrophic. We’ll be eight degrees hotter in ten, not ten but 30 or 40 years and basically none of the crops will grow. Most of the people will have died and the rest of us will be cannibals.”[Strictly speaking, this is not a failed prediction. It won’t be until at least 2048 that our church-going and pie-baking neighbors come after us for their noonday meal. But the prediction is so bizarre that it is included it here.]****78. January 1970 Life Magazine “Scientists have solid experimental and theoretical evidence to support …the following predictions: In a decade, urban dwellers will have to wear gas masks to survive air pollution…by 1985 air pollution will have reduced the amount of sunlight reaching earth by one half…”****79. “Earth Day” 1970 Kenneth Watt, ecologist: “At the present rate of nitrogen build-up, it’s only a matter of time before light will be filtered out of the atmosphere and none of our land will be usable.”****80. “Earth Day” 1970 Kenneth Watt, ecologist: “The world has been chilling sharply for about twenty years. If present trends continue, the world will be about four degrees colder for the global mean temperature in 1990, but eleven degrees colder in the year 2000. This is about twice what it would take to put us into an ice age.”****81. April 28, 1975 Newsweek “There are ominous signs that Earth’s weather patterns have begun to change dramatically….The evidence in support of these predictions has now begun to accumulate so massively that meteorologists are hard-pressed to keep up with it….The central fact is that…the earth’s climate seems to be cooling down…If the climate change is as profound as some of the pessimists fear, the resulting famines could be catastrophic.”****82. 1976 Lowell Ponte in “The Cooling,”: “This cooling has already killed hundreds of thousands of people. If it continues and no strong action is taken, it will cause world famine, world chaos and world war, and this could all come about before the year 2000.”****83. July 9, 1971, Washington Post: “In the next 50 years fine dust that humans discharge into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuel will screen out so much of the sun’s rays that the Earth’s average temperature could fall by six degrees. Sustained emissions over five to ten years, could be sufficient to trigger an ice age.”****84. June, 1975, Nigel Calder in International Wildlife: “The continued rapid cooling of the earth since WWII is in accord with the increase in global air pollution associated with industrialization, mechanization, urbanization and exploding population.”****85. June 30, 1989, Associated Press: U.N. OFFICIAL PREDICTS DISASTER, SAYS GREENHOUSE EFFECT COULD WIPE SOME NATIONS OFF MAP–entire nations could be wiped off the face of the earth by rising sea levels if global warming is not reversed by the year 2000. Coastal flooding and crop failures would create an exodus of ‘eco-refugees,’ threatening political chaos,” said Brown, director of the New York office of the U.N. Environment Program. He added that governments have a 10-year window of opportunity to solve the greenhouse effect.****86. Sept 19, 1989, St. Louis Post-Dispatch: “New York will probably be like Florida 15 years from now.”****87. December 5, 1989, Dallas Morning News: “Some predictions for the next decade are not difficult to make…Americans may see the ’80s migration to the Sun Belt reverse as a global warming trend rekindles interest in cooler climates.”—****88. Michael Oppenheimer, 1990, The Environmental Defense Fund: “By 1995, the greenhouse effect would be desolating the heartlands of North America and Eurasia with horrific drought, causing crop failures and food riots…”(By 1996) The Platte River of Nebraska would be dry, while a continent-wide black blizzard of prairie topsoil will stop traffic on interstates, strip paint from houses and shut down computers…The Mexican police will round up illegal American migrants surging into Mexico seeking work as field hands.”****89. April 18, 1990, Denver Post: “Giant sand dunes may turn Plains to desert–huge sand dunes extending east from Colorado’s Front Range may be on the verge of breaking through the thin topsoil, transforming America’s rolling High Plains into a desert, new research suggests. The giant sand dunes discovered by NASA satellite photos are expected to re-emerge over the next 20 t0 50 years, depending on how fast average temperatures rise from the suspected ‘greenhouse effect’ scientists believe.”****90. Edward Goldsmith, 1991, (5000 Days to Save the Planet): “By 2000, British and American oil will have diminished to a trickle….Ozone depletion and global warming threaten food shortages, but the wealthy North will enjoy a temporary reprieve by buying up the produce of the South. Unrest among the hungry and the ensuing political instability, will be contained by the North’s greater military might. A bleak future indeed, but an inevitable one unless we change the way we live…At present rates of exploitation there may be no rainforest left in 10 years. If measures are not taken immediately, the greenhouse effect may be unstoppable in 12 to 15 years.”****91. April 22, 1990 ABC, The Miracle Planet: “I think we’re in trouble. When you realize how little time we have left–we are now given not 10 years to save the rainforests, but in many cases five years. Madagascar will largely be gone in five years unless something happens. And nothing is happening.”****92. February 1993, Thomas E. Lovejoy, Smithsonian Institution: “Most of the great environmental struggles will be either won or lost in the 1990s and by the next century it will be too late.”****93. November 7, 1997, (BBC commentator): “It appears that we have a very good case for suggesting that the El Niños are going to become more frequent, and they’re going to become more intense, and in a few years, or a decade or so, we’ll go into a permanent El Nino. So instead of having cool water periods for a year or two, we’ll have El Niño upon El Niño, and that will become the norm. And you’ll have an El Niño, that instead of lasting 18 months, lasts 18 years.”****94. July 26, 1999 The Birmingham Post: “Scientists are warning that some of the Himalayan glaciers could vanish within ten years because of global warming. A build-up of greenhouse gases is blamed for the meltdown, which could lead to drought and flooding in the region affecting millions of people.”****95. October 15, 1990 Carl Sagan: “The planet could face an ‘ecological and agricultural catastrophe’ by the next decade if global warming trends continue.”****96. Sept 11, 1999, The Guardian: “A report last week claimed that within a decade, the disease (malaria) will be common again on the Spanish coast. The effects of global warming are coming home to roost in the developed world.”****97. March 29, 2001, CNN: “In ten year’s time, most of the low-lying atolls surrounding Tuvalu’s nine islands in the South Pacific Ocean will be submerged under water as global warming rises sea levels.”****98. 1969, Lubos Moti, Czech physicist: “It is now pretty clearly agreed that CO2 content [in the atmosphere] will rise 25% by 2000. This could increase the average temperature near the earth’s surface by 7 degrees Fahrenheit. This in turn could raise the level of the sea by 10 feet. Goodbye New York. Goodbye Washington, for that matter.”****99. 2005, Andrew Simms, policy director of the New Economics Foundation: “Scholars are predicting that 50 million people worldwide will be displaced by 2010 because of rising sea levels, desertification, dried up aquifers, weather-induced flooding and other serious environmental changes.”****100. Oct 20, 2009, Gordon Brown UK Prime Minister (referring to the Copenhagen climate conference): “World leaders have 50 days to save the Earth from irreversible global warming.”****101. June 2008, Ted Alvarez, Backpacker Magazine Blogs: “you could potentially sail, kayak, or even swim to the North Pole by the end of the summer. Climate scientists say that the Arctic ice…is currently on track to melt sometime in 2008.”[Shortly after this prediction was made, a Russian icebreaker was trapped in the ice of the Northwest Passage for a week.]****102. May 31, 2006 Al Gore, CBS Early Show: “…the debate among the scientists is over. There is no more debate. We face a planetary emergency. There is no more scientific debate among serious people who’ve looked at the science…Well, I guess in some quarters, there’s still a debate over whether the moon landing was staged in a movie lot in Arizona, or whether the Earth is flat instead of round.”****103. January 2000 Dr. Michael Oppenheimer of the Environmental Defense Fund commenting (in a NY Times interview) on the mild winters in New York City: “But it does not take a scientist to size up the effects of snowless winters on the children too young to remember the record-setting blizzards of 1996. For them, the pleasures of sledding and snowball fights are as out-of-date as hoop-rolling, and the delight of a snow day off from school is unknown.”****104. 2008 Dr. James Hansen of the Goddard Space Institute (NASA) on a visit to Britain: “The recent warm winters that Britain has experienced are a sign that the climate is changing.”[Two exceptionally cold winters followed. The 2009-10 winter may be the coldest experienced in the UK since 1683.]****105. June 11, 1986, Dr. James Hansen of the Goddard Space Institute (NASA) in testimony to Congress (according to the Milwaukee Journal): “Hansen predicted global temperatures should be nearly 2 degrees higher in 20 years, ‘which is about the warmest the earth has been in the last 100,000 years.’”****106. June 8, 1972, Christian Science Monitor: “Arctic specialist Bernt Balchen says a general warming trend over the North Pole is melting the polar ice cap and may produce an ice-free Arctic Ocean by the year 2000.”****107. May 15, 1989, Associated Press: “Using computer models, researchers concluded that global warming would raise average annual temperatures nationwide [USA] two degrees by 2010.”