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This answer may contain sensitive images. Click on an image to unblur it.I think American public schools have abjectly failed to teach people the absolutely vital of importance of definition of terms.I’m also going to call Fatherly and Miss Francis liars.Why? Because they are claiming there have been 28 mass shootings, while utterly failing to define what a mass shooting is. Frankly there is no universally agreed on definition. I use the same one as the FBI/DOJ, because at least it’s clear and objective. But even here, we have issues.Per the FBI & DOJ, a mass shooting is an incident in which four or more people are killed in a single event with no “cooling off” period. However, there have been so few mass shootings in the US that in 2013 they redefined it as three or more.Now, the cited article was written on 5FEB20, and claimed 28 mass shootings. Per the dubious Gun Violence Archive of Mass Shootings in 2020, which frankly upon review I don’t trust but I’m not going to get into that at the moment, by 5FEB20 there had been seven mass shootings per the new FBI definition. Only three per the old definition. So you see, there’s nearly a 200% increase in mass shootings just by changing the definition alone!Now currently the database extends to 18JUN20. We’re five months after the article was written, and still only at twenty mass shootings this year, and only ten by the old FBI definition.So what is the GVA’s definition of a mass shooting?General MethodologyNotice how no consideration is made of circumstances. So if a couple cops respond to a robbery in progress, and the three perps are shot, that’s a “mass shooting” per GVA.If there’s a gang shooting and three gangbangers get winged, that’s a “mass shooting”.Or when a homeowner shoots three intruders, that’s a “mass shooting”.Texas homeowner shoots and kills 3 with shotgun during break-inHomeowner shoots and kills 3 masked men in possible 'stand your ground' caseGVA’s definition is tailored to appear neutral while being anything but. It deliberately casts as wide a net as possible in order to have the highest “gun violence” numbers possible.So what do I think about these figures?I think that even gun banners know their case is weak as wet tissue, so they disingenuously inflate their statistics as much as possible in order to swindle the credulous into falling for their rhetoric.There is nothing you can do to unjustly injure someone with a gun that isn’t already illegal. Such crimes are what’s called malum in se, which is a fancy Latin phrase meaning “evil in itself”. That’s pretty reasonable. Injuring, killing, or threatening someone with a gun is, apart from self-defense, wrong in and of itself.But most “gun crime” as a result of anti-gun laws are malum prohibitum, that is, “wrong because prohibited”. That is, they are administrative crimes. Nobody has been injured. Nobody is likely to be injured. Often it’s just some paperwork screwup.So when one side is arguing in favor of administrative crimes, and has to use bullshit statistics in order to fool the gullible, I am rather strongly disinclined to favor that position.What I think is that we need better education on understanding statistics and rhetoric in schools.Original question-According to Lizzy Francis who wrote on "Fatherly", an online newsletter, there have been 28 mass shootings from Jan. 1 to Feb. 5, 2020 (a mere 5 weeks). Knowing that, do you believe we need stricter gun control laws in the United States?

Hi James F Evans, thank you for asking.How high will Bitcoin go before falling back down?Bitcoin’s price goes up and down all the time. Do you mean, at what price will bitcoin hit its market cycle peak?Based on data models, $100,000 - $288,000.Based on history, $90,000.You’re familiar with the data models. E.g., logarithmic growth, curve, Stock-to-Flow, four-year cycle, hash cycles, expanding cycles.We also have data. Just data, not models or projections based on data.That data suggests that if the market keeps this pace and DOES NOT crash hard or go sideways for another month or two, we’re on target to peak at roughly $90,000—maybe $100,000 or more, but not much more, likely in April 2021.That’s impossible, Mark.No.In fact, that would match the metrics we’ve seen at previous cycle peaks, then estimate the results those metrics will show if we keep up the pace we’re on.What are those metrics?Two charts that clearly predict all four previous market peaks: Puell Multiple and MVRV Z-Score.Puell Multiple: A Measure of How Miners Value BitcoinThe Puell Multiple compares the price of newly-mined bitcoin to the average market value at a given time. When the Puell Multiple goes way up, miners tend to dump on the market. When it goes way down, they tend to hoard.Extreme readings suggest everybody’s looking to sell and nobody plans to HODL. Meanwhile, new buyers tend to have weak hands or only want to flip their bitcoins for profit. As a result, the market crashes (it does not dip).In this chart, you can see the extreme levels between the black lines. I circled our current level in blue—as you can see, it’s not near the top, but when you project the math into the future that everybody expects, you can tell it will reach extreme levels if we keep this pace.MVRV Z-ScoreMVRV Z-score measures the difference between bitcoin’s present price and the average price people bought it for. When the score goes up, more people have paper gains. When those gains get really high, people choose to convert their bitcoins into other things.Maybe they want to cash out their new fortune? Perhaps they fear the market will crash?For whatever reason, they tend to sell en masse. Nobody wants to HODL.In this chart, you can see the extreme levels between the blue lines. I circled our current level in yellow—as you can see, it’s not near the top, but when you project the math into the future that everybody expects, you can tell it will reach extreme levels if we keep this pace.These metrics form one plank of My Plan for Bitcoin’s Bull Market so I pay special attention to them.Why do I like them so much?First, they’re clear. You don’t need plot lines or compare anything, you just need to read the numbers.Second, they reflect actual human behavior. People decide bitcoin’s price, not mathematical formulas.Third, they have four distinct data points that occur regardless of the larger macro environment. Many metrics have only two or three.Last, they span all of bitcoin’s history. Most people only use data from the previous bull market, but bitcoin’s had four bull markets—from inception to June 2011, Nov 2011 to Apr 2013, Jul 2013 to Dec 2013, and Oct 2015 to Dec 2017.These metrics impute all that data into very easy-to-follow markers. Except 2011, both metrics went extreme at the market cycle peaks. Chalk up 2011 to sketchy data—we don’t have good pricing data for the formulas that make up these metrics, so we can’t be too precise, but you can see the extreme movement.But, Mark, this latest bull market just started!Are you sure?In January 2019, bitcoin’s price was $3,200. In January 2020, it was $7,000. In January 2021, it was $25,000.On those dates, the total altcoin market was worth $37 billion, $53 billion, and $215 billion.Higher each year.This is the monthly view of bitcoin’s price since 2019:Perhaps the dictionary says bitcoin was in a bear market from January 2018 to October 2020.I’m not going to argue with a dictionary, but where I come from, up is up. You can call it whatever you want.But the Stock-to-Flow! Four-Year Cycles! Hash Cycles! Expanding Cycles!There’s a model for every outcome you want to see, and they all disagree with each other.They’re also flexible.For example, bitcoin’s price has deviated from Stock-to-Flow up to 70% below and 400% above. You can see this in the Stock-to-Flow Deflection chart.Bob Loukas says the four-year cycles can be left- or right-translated, not necessarily symmetrical. Expanding cycles is a theory without specific targets.While I don’t make decisions based on data models, I picked a few interesting patterns and projected their paths over the next month assuming we stay on this pace:Pi cycle, a mathematical formula that maps the intersection of two specific moving averages. When those averages converge, the market is near its peak. Today, those averages are 3% apart and getting slightly closer with each passing day. All the previous times we saw the lines cross, the market peaked within weeks.Two-year moving average multiplier, a line bitcoin breaches only when it reaches market cycle peaks. We’re very close to breaching that line.Logarithmic growth curve, an algorithm that marks the upper and lower boundaries of bitcoin’s historical prices. When bitcoin’s price hits the top of the curve, it signals the absolute peak and triggers deep, long bear markets. If bitcoin’s price remains on this trajectory, we will hit the top of that curve in a month.Golden ratio multiplier. Whenever bitcoin’s price goes above that line, it hits a market cycle peak. That line projects to hit the top of the logarithmic growth curve at the same time as you would expect the lines of the Pi cycle to converge.I’ll overlap all of them on one chart so you can see the trajectory:Or a cleaner view, just projecting this parabola forward on the log growth chart:All of these signals meet next month at a price of roughly $90,000.I go into more depth about these trends and the more short-term ebbs and flows of the market in my Crypto is Easy newsletter. Hopefully, this brief summary gives you a sense of perspective.Mark, you’re saying bear market starting in May? At only $90,000?No.I’m saying unless we have a nice crash or cool off for a while, we will hit a top of around $90k, give or take $10–15k, next month. That would fit within Stock-to-Flow deviations, certain other models, and on-chain metrics.But who’s to say we have to keep this pace? Why can’t we break the parabola and change the trajectory?Also, just because we hit a peak doesn't mean we have to have a deep, multiyear bear market after that. We could go to the peak, then crash to $30k or even lower, then go back up later this year. We did something similar in 2011 and 2013.In fact, in 2013, bitcoin hit its market cycle peak in April—the culmination of a 1.5yr bull run. Then, its price dropped 77% over three months. After that lull, Silicon Valley FOMO pushed bitcoin’s price up 1,700% from July to December.Everybody seems to consider that part of one move, even though the data clearly shows two separate market cycles.Why can’t we do that this time, too?Bottom lineWe can sustain this pace OR have a bull market through the end of the year, but not both.Fortunately, this market can turn on a dime. Or, chill out for a few months before going up again.Will that happen?We shall see.Until you have some reason to believe we won’t continue the path we’re on, you have to assume we will. And that means roughly $90k in April, possibly a little higher.Can you believe that?—Mark Helfman publishes the Crypto is Easy newsletter. He is also a top writer on Medium and Hacker Noon for bitcoin and other topics. His books explore the social, cultural, financial, and business challenges of cryptocurrency in the real world.Twitter | Medium | BioAlso check out Crypto Globe 360° and Inner Circle and The Crypto Cave and CryptoCurry (plus shout out to In Bitcoin We Trust).

Well, there seems to be bubbles boiling up everywhere.There are bubbly stock markets like India, Brazil, and the U.S. Lots of bond bubbles: U.S. Treasuries, U.S. corporate bonds, global bonds in general, subprime auto bonds.There’s talk of a bubble in the international art market, solar energy, venture capital, lithium, and U.S student loans. We also recently discussed another possible bitcoin bubble.There’s evidence of real estate bubbles around the world: Vancouver, Auckland, Sydney, Toronto, San Francisco and London, for starters. There’s a reported bubble in “nine-figure real estate listings.”Chinese bubbles are a class of their own: Real estate, iron ore, cotton, garlic, eggs and soybean meal are some recent ones. Of course, China’s stock market bubble burst last summer.Then there is discussion of “the mother of all bubbles” also known as “the everything bubble,” which infers that a global debt bubble feeds all the other bubbles. With so many bubbles, it’s hard to keep track.Possibly a Bubble ETF (my proposed ticker symbol: POP) is needed, composed of the many bubble markets, so that there’s an efficient way to track and trade the world of bubbles.Yet, despite the fact that speculative bubbles are popping up everywhere, it can often be hard to tell you’re in a bubble until it pops. It would help to know how to tell a bubble is forming.Luckily there are about four centuries’ worth of speculative bubbles to study for answers.The first widely known and the most famous market bubble of all time was Tulip Mania, which occurred in Holland in the early 17th century. The Dutch became enamored with tulips that had flaming colors on their petals. They coveted the bulbs that grew into these unique tulips.As demand for the bulbs increased, along with their value, a market in tulip bulbs developed. As word of profitable speculation spread, more people piled in. Prices moved continuously higher.Then from December 1636 to February 1637, the price of premium tulips surged by 200 percent. At the height of the mania in 1637, the market price of a single prized bulb was sufficient to purchase one of the grandest homes on the most fashionable canal in Amsterdam – when that city’s homes were among the most expensive in the world.Needless to say, these prices were not an accurate reflection of the true value of a tulip bulb. In February 1637, buying tipped over into selling, and a domino effect of cascading lower and lower prices took hold. Speculators saw that they had spent vast sums to buy plants that were little more than glorified onions, and liquidated their tulip bulb holdings without regard for price. As wealth evaporated, pandemonium engulfed Holland. A deep economic depression followed.Tulip mania established a pattern that has since been repeated over and over in speculative bubbles ever since. Despite advances in economic theory and the increasing sophistication of markets, market bubbles, and human psychology, haven’t changed much since the 1630s.In 2008, Jean-Paul Rodrigue, a Canadian transportation scholar, conducted a study of the history of bubbles, and published a model of bubble stages:1. Stealth Phase. The initial bubble stage is where a new market opportunity, or paradigm, is cautiously recognized by early smart money investors.2. Awareness Phase. As market prices rise, more investors are attracted to the new investment story. The media begins to cover the story, adding to the momentum, and investors become increasingly interested – and increasingly less sophisticated.3. Mania Phase. Now everyone notices the rising prices. The media is touting “the investment of a lifetime.” Price becomes detached from underlying economic reality. Euphoric, irrational investors project recent price gains into the future. Enthusiasm spreads like a contagion between investors. A feedback loop ensues – rising prices amplify stories that seem to justify high valuations, which attract an ever increasing number of buyers.Even cynical traders join the buying, expecting to sell to “greater fools.” Price gains become nearly parabolic. Paper fortunes are made. Greed rules. Meanwhile the smart money is selling to the dumb money.4. Blow-off Phase. At some point buying abates and a paradigm shift slowly – or sometimes quickly – unfolds, as market participants realize something has changed. Sellers now find few buyers and prices fall quickly. Leveraged speculators face margin calls and are forced to sell. The decline becomes a crash.Everyone now views the market as “a house of cards,” and prices plummet at a rate much faster than when the bubble was inflated. Often, prices fall below pre-bubble levels. The market becomes universally hated. But eventually the smart money starts buying again, recognizing the panic has created an opportunity to buy assets at bargain prices.This classic bubble pattern is apparent in the most notorious bubbles of the modern era, including some very recent ones.For instance, at the beginning of 2013, you could buy one bitcoin for about US$12. By the end of November, you could have sold it for US$1,100 – a 9,000 percent gain. When the bubble popped, bitcoin prices fell over 50 percent within a month.As shown below, in 2013 bitcoin went through all the phases of a classic market bubble.Another example is the Shanghai Composite index just last year. Starting in August 2014, the index gained 125 percent in 10 months. This was fueled in part by easier margin lending rules, which allowed Chinese investors to borrow more to invest.This amplified the speculation and buying, so prices kept going higher. Thinking that buying stocks was an easy way to make money, less sophisticated investors entered the market and mania ensued.But eventually the bubble popped. Investors realized stocks were way overvalued and the market collapsed and fell 32 percent in less than a month.Over 400 years of market bubbles have shown a recurring pattern: A smart investment idea gains a following, and prices rise. The media discovers the story, ever more investors join in, becoming increasingly excited, and prices rise even more. Valuations lose connection with economic reality. Sooner or later the bubble bursts, prices crash, and many investors are ruined.With potential bubbles in so many different markets across the globe, it’s a good time to study this historical pattern. Knowing what stage a market bubble is in can help you avoid taking a bath when the bubble pops. And bubbles always pop.Learning to control the emotions that can cause us to get caught up in market bubbles is also important. You can download a special report on how to deal with these cognitive biases by clicking here.For more insight and education about a ​range of finance and investment ​issues, you can also receive my free daily investment newsletter by clicking here.