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Elections are won through cadres and catalysts.In 1998, NDA swept TN and BJP won 3 of the 5 seats it was directly assigned. In the two other seats it pushed close and lost by fairly small margin of 20,000 votes. Besides this, Subramaniam Swamy stood as a separate JP candidate and won too.Source: 1998 Indian general election in Tamil NaduThere was a catalyst at that time — terror attack by SIMI (1998 Coimbatore bombings) and insensitive statements by then DMK supporters like actor Rajnikanth (Rajnikanth claims blasts attempt to unseat DMK-TMC).With a catalyst [DMK came to the political scene through a catalyst in the 1960s — in the form of hindi protests] you can drastically alter political results like what happened in 1998.For the catalyst to speeden up the reaction there has to be the core reactants — that is where the cadre is needed. To do that it takes a lot of resources and leadership energy. Until now there were other places where BJP leadership needed these resources. BJP built ground support in Assam, West Bengal, Odisha etc — breaking into places it never did a decade ago. It had found a gap in Telangana and has taken the control of Karnataka.Now, the next wave would be to deploy resources for cadre building in Tamil Nadu. The TN BJP unit is quite weak and doesn’t have a large grassroots following. With the central attention that would be fixed. In Kerala too the grassroots is becoming stronger for the BJP.Once the grassroots level cadre is quite strong, all it requires is a catalyst to fundamentally change the game. It is not impossible to win Tamil Nadu — smart strategists would know the various faultlines, the various secrets and the various strengths & weaknesses of local leaders. For a highly committed organisation there are always ways to buy, bury or bully local leaders into submission.There is nothing unique about TN in preventing BJP from winning here. It had tasted victory in the past with meagre resources and with a fully loaded gun, it is possible for it to win TN.

Thanks for A2ALet us see how Congress and BJP progressed so far in the Lok ShabaData: Lok Sabha - WikipediaCongress was having a monopoly until the 5th LS. This lead to complacency.“India is Indira and Indira is India” this arrogance and the emergency lead to the downfall of the most powerful leader of that time.In the 8th LS election, the sympathy wave took Congress to the thumping victory winning 426 seats and BJP made debut with just 2 seats.From the 9th LS election, the downfall of the Congress and the rise of the BJP started. Coalition era too started and the regional parties played a crucial role in forming the government.16th and 17th LS saw the Modi wave and Congress under the leadership of Rahul Gandhi seen the disastrous performance, the 100-year-old party could not even achieve the status of an opposition party.Let us see the 17th LS strength before answering this question.Source: http://loksabhaph.nic.in/Members/StatisticalAnalysis.aspxBJP alone has 55.80% of LS seatsRest 35 parties put together has 44.2%Congress has just 9.58% of the seats.After Jharkhand election, let us look at the MLAs strength in all the states and in UTsTotal MLAs in India 4120BJP: 1337 MLAs … 32.45%Congress: 845 MLAs … 20.5%In the assembly elections, regional parties and the state issues play an important role. So there will be a different pattern of voting. The local issues are more important and the local leaders are key and here they are not going to vote for central leadership.Jharkhand loss for BJP is a big lesson.BJP should groom the local leaders. The Grassroot workers and the local leaders should work on the local issues and keep addressing them. They should conduct a regular review meeting on the issues and study the ongoing projects and follow up if the welfare schemes are reaching the right persons.All states cannot rely only on the central leaderships rally and they should do the rallies and speak in their local language for better reach.Let us see the zonal wise comparison of BJP and CongressSouth Zone:BJP vs INC 119 vs 117Though the bottom line looks neck and neck, as the matter of fact BJP apart from Karnataka is not a force to reckon with.0 seats in AP, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry and just 1 seat in Kerala and Telangana.Even Congress is not having a great hold. But Congress managed to get hold of some alliance partners.Congress has a slight edge here over BJP because of alliance partners.BJP has a long way to go in the South zone. Groom local leasers and find alliance partners who can work together and have the synergic effort.Here regional parties have a key role to play in the center politics. (expect Karnataka)East Zone:BJP Vs INC 115 vs 93Though the bottom line seems not much of a difference here BJP has an edge over Congress.In the next election, BJP will be having inroads in Didi land. why?Source: YoutubeThis slogan from the CM is going to backfire. This arrogance might cost her political career.Naveen Babu’s incumbency in the next election will help BJP and if the alliance with Nithish Babu takes place may be win-win for both BJP and JD(U).Wherever Congress was the second alliance partner, the state had a difficult time in the past.Here BJP will gain and Congress may lose some more seats in W.Bengal and Bihar.North EastBJP vs INC: 196 vs 71Here BJP is in clear lead.Himanta Biswa Sarma, fed up with Congress, joined BJP. This local leader was instrumental for BJPs NE victories.Hemanta Biswas proves how important for the center to have a strong local leader who can address them in their language and address their local issues.However, we got to see how NRC will affect their votes in the next elections.North Zone:BJP vs INC: 528 vs 270The advantage is the BJP. Though BJP lost Rajasthan to Congress, still BJP looks strong in North. Thanks to UP, but again to retain those seats in a big challenge.here the unholy alliance of SP+BSP+INC was rejected by the voters of UP both at the regional and central levels.BJP is likely to gain Delhi in the next elections.BJP is also likely to gain in Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh UTBJP is likely to retain its strength inNorth Zone.West ZoneBJP vs INC: 357 vs 305The bottom line shows it is tight for both the parties.Congress gained in most of the states in this zone.SS and Congress will be paying for the unholy alliance even though they have short term gains.But here BJP is having better local leaders who can handle better than the congress leaders in the future.Though losing those 5 states is definitely a set back for BJP but it is not down and out.This gives them to reflect and act better for the country and for the party.What should they do?To Groom local leaders. Talk local issues for assembly elections and central issues and local issues for LS elections. Allow local leaders to talk more or groom them to translate their speech in the local language.Is BJP becoming weak?Not really. BJP is not afraid to make a few unpopular bills passed. This is in spite knowing that they may lose a few seats and states.Demonetization, GST, Trible Talaq, Article 370, CAA are not going to gain votes for BJP. But they put the country first and party next.2014 Modi became so powerful leader. But who made him that great.?How many knew Modi before 2002. He was just an ordinary grassroots worker and became the CM of Gujarat for the first time?But how many state CMs we know?2002 riots happened when Modi was in the CMs chair for just 6 months. He has just started his political career and who will dig his own grave at the starting of his career?Media, Political Parties, NGOs, Bureaucrats were propagating negative news against him day in day out. Negative news on one side and winning elections, on the other hand. Now people around the world started watching him. After the subsequent win in Gujarat elections and SIT and SC giving a clean chit, he became the national leader and the face of PM candidate for BJP in 2014 and 2019. And the rest is history.Those negative publicity by the media, opposition political parties, NGOs gained a lot of sympathy for him. The new voters still wondering why 22 parties fought against one man and why the opposition parties not able to project their PM candidate?That made what Modi is today apart from his hard work from the grass-root level.Who knows had they not given such negative publicity Modi might have been restricted to Gujarat alone.Unfortunately, Congress and the opposition had not learned from their mistakes, they are still doing that.If Intolenace, award wapsi, tukde tukde, attacking institutions, demonetization, triple talaq … those negative campaigns did not work for the opposition in 2019 elections, do you think by spreading the negative news on Article 370, Ram Temple, Article 370, CAA and NPR will help the opposition in 2024 elections?Both BJP and Congress should groom local leaders.BJP government should start working on the growth front and start creating job opportunities.Congress and the opposition should stop spreading negativity and sponsor violence.The damaged trains and buses belong to us and who gave you permission to destroy our properties. This is unacceptable. You will be thought of a lesson for this in 2023.Keep that in mind and start working for 2027.Hope that helps and thanks for reading.Our country first and Party next, let us not vote for those who spread the violenceOur country is beautiful and if you hate any political leader do hate him but don't hate our country.Jai Hind.P.S.: I have written a couple of answers regarding politics before the 2014 electionsKLN Vara Prasad's answer to Who should be the next Prime Minister of India?KLN Vara Prasad's answer to What major difference did you observe in the 2014 elections and 2019 elections?Source: Member of the Legislative Assembly (India) - Wikipedia

His major failures are:1. Not sending corrupt leaders of previous government to jail.2. Not dissolving worthless Delhi legislative assembly.3. Meeting Nawaj Sharif on his birthday.4. Ignoring continuous and baseless ranting of allies like Shiv Sena and Apna Dal.5. Not grooming a local leader of Uttar Pradesh as Chief Minister Candidate.6. Not controlling his party leaders corrupting BCCI.7. Giving ex-congress leaders BJP tickets for Lok Sabha and state assemblies.8. Major ignorance of West Bengal present situation.9. Silence on Kanahiya Kumar and other similar issues.10. Forming government with parties like Jammu and Kashmir Peoples Democratic Party.11. Ignoring situation of farmers across the country.Thanks,Ravi