Unit 3: The Periodic Table Reading History Of Atomic Models: Fill & Download for Free

What was the train of logic that led early physicists and chemists to arrive at the atomic model without yet having the tools to visualize these constructs?The idea that there were smallest, indivisible units of substances goes back to ancient Greece, at least 500 years B.C.E. Most believed for awhile that earth, water, air and fire were the four basic elements from which all substances were made.As more pure compounds and elements were discovered, along with their physical properties like melting and boiling points, the original four “elements” became known as the “states” of matter: solid, liquid, gas and plasma. The search for the “indivisible” atom and the pure “elements” went on for centuries, sometimes leading to great flashes of insight, other times down blind alleys.Atomic theory - WikipediaThe English chemist John Dalton first proposed circa, 1800 A.D., the basic principles of modern atomic theoryThe main points of Dalton's atomic theory are:Elements are made of extremely small particles called atoms.Atoms of a given element are identical in size, mass and other properties; atoms of different elements differ in size, mass and other properties.Atoms cannot be subdivided, created or destroyed.Atoms of different elements combine in simple whole-number ratios to form chemical compounds.In chemical reactions, atoms are combined, separated or rearranged.John Dalton - WikipediaHe deduced these principles from extensive reading and experimentation with chemical reactions, especially with simple compounds of gasses.At about the same time, Alexander Volta built the first chemical battery using copper and zinc discs separated by a saline solution. The battery was a reliable source of electricity, and opened the door for many new theories and experiments. The battery made possible the first electrolysis of water, which separated water into two its two elemental component gasses, hydrogen and oxygen, and strongly confirmed atomic theory.For the next 50 years, research involving batteries and electricity was the leading edge of experimental chemistry, and which, by the end of the 19th century, led to the electronic theory of atomic bonding and chemical reactions, which we now call ‘physical chemistry,.’History of the battery - WikipediaThe English chemist John Newlands noted that chemical properties were similar among elements with different atomic weights, and after arranging elements according to atomic weight, these properties recurred in every eighth element, a principle which he proposed in 1864 as the Rule of Octaves.Newlands' Periodic TableThese ideas were corrected and greatly confirmed with the publication, in 1869, of the Periodic Table designed by Russian chemist Dmitri Mendeleev. The Periodic Table brought into pre-eminence the concept of “atomic number” of the elements, which was related both to the atomic weight and to the elements’ reactivity, although at the time the physical meaning of this relationship was still unknown.Mendeleev's Periodic TableIn 1887, the Swedish chemist Svante Arrenhius proposed that acids and bases were compounds that dissociate in water to produce positive and negative charged particles, respectively. The negative charge was a hydroxyl ion (-OH), while the positive charge was a hydrogen nucleus (H+). Since hydrogen was the simplest existing element, it was thought that the neutral hydrogen atom was composed of two particles, one positively charged and the other negatively charged. The theory was very successful in predicting the strength (pH) of acids and bases of different compositions. It promoted the idea that electrically charged atoms could combine due to the attraction between positive and negative charges which the atoms somehow acquired.Arrhenius theory | chemistryThe proof that atoms were themselves composed of smaller particles occurred in 1897, when J.J. Thomson discovered the negatively-charged electron, and proposed that they were normally embedded in an atomic sea of positive charge, like “plums in pudding.”J. J. Thomson - WikipediaMost of the subsequent discoveries were made by blasting atoms and charged particles together, and analysing the results.Thompson’s model of the atom was disproven by Ernest Rutherford, who showed that most of the positive charge of an atom was concentrated into a small fraction of its volume. Rutherford proposed that the electrons orbited the nucleus like planets orbit the sun, and so developed the “planetary model.”Ernest Rutherford - WikipediaThe planetary model suffered from theoretic issues, mainly why the electrons did not radiate energy as they fell into the nucleus. Albert Einstein, Max Plank and Neils Borh combined their ideas about quantized energy into the Bohr model of the atom.The model was completed in 1932, when James Chadwick discovered the neutron, a component of every atom heavier than hydrogen. The neutron fully explained the mysterious variations in atomic weight between different elements, and between different isotopes of any element.James Chadwick - WikipediaEventually, methods of splitting the nucleus of atoms were discovered, further elaborating and simultaneously confirming the model, and leading to the predicted discovery of anti-particles, neutrinos and the whole ‘sub-atomic particle zoo’.

VERY LONG answer [32+ pages].HCoV-19 (SARS-CoV-2) is very infectious (Each person infects 1.4–6.77 others), but rarely fatal for healthy people age 0–59 (maybe <1%).Recovered people may have 20-30% (or more) lung damage. One patient needed a double lung transplant. Even if you don’t die, COVID-19 scares many doctors.Flu doesn’t usually cause so much life-long lung damage.Main danger for people under 60 is pre-existing conditions - high blood pressure, diabetes, hypertension, heart disease, and cerebrovascular disease (maybe 6–23% fatality for people age 60+ or with pre-existing conditions).Most infected people show no symptoms (possibly 40–70%, but we need better studies). Diamond Princess cruise ship: 62% of infected people leaving the ship showed no symptoms. In Italy, 44% of laboratory-confirmed cases have been asymptomatic.Of people with symptoms, fever is more common at age 20–59 (85–91%) than at age 0–19 and 60+ (70–81%). Roughly 9–30% have no fever.Healthy children and teens can be infected. One study (N=2,141) shows3.0–10.6% severe/critical cases. Possible lung damage after recovery.94.2% (2,016/2,141) asymptomatic, mild, or moderate cases.It’s rare for them to be hospitalized, but if they are, it’s just as bad as for old people.Young adults ages 20-44 rarely have fatal cases, but ~20% of symptomatic cases require hospitalization, and ~2-4% require ICU.Kills more men (64%) than women (36%).Mask usage: Chinese advice is “Wear masks in public”.Coronavirus can travel twice as far as official ‘safe distance’ (4.5 meters) and stay in air for 30 minutes. (3/9/20) May stay in air for 3 hrs (3/17/20).HCoV-19 half-life on Cardboard is 3.5 (2–5) hrs. Be careful receiving packages. If package has been touched within 24-48 hrs, maybe use a disinfectant wipe (or wet soapy cloth). (3/9/20–3/17/20)Some pets can catch HCoV-19 (cats, dogs, tigers). Hong Kong is placing pets in veterinary surveillance or quarantine for 14 days if someone has HCoV-19. (3/4/20)How long does immunity last? UNKNOWN.Common cold coronaviruses usually confer weak immunity, which often fades within a year. MERS & SARS immunity lasts many years.Impact of HCoV-19 is similar to OC43 (one of four other mild “common cold” coronaviruses, 15% severe, 0.2% death), but more fatal for older people.HCoV-19 is the virus name (formerly known as SARS-CoV-2, 2019-nCoV, or “novel coronavirus”).COVID-19 is the name for the disease if you have symptoms.It’s very confusing. I don’t like the HIV/AIDS naming approach where the virus and the disease have different names.Other good sources to read:(1–2) Tomas Pueyo has amazing diagrams in his two Medium posts. Best analysis I’ve seen. Warning: Some historical dates and numbers in his diagrams and text are incorrect/out-of-date, but the essence of his concepts is good.(a) Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now (3/11/20)(b) Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance (3/19/20)(3) Best introductory COVID-19 video I’ve seen (3/21/20).Takes you step by step through an illness - mild, moderate, severe, and critical. Some information is out-of-date/incorrect, but it’s a great start.This is what having the novel coronavirus looks like pic.twitter.com/mu7Sj1pq28— Tech Insider (@techinsider) March 22, 2020For people with a strong scientific background, read #4, 5, & 6:(4) Unlike #1–3 which were produced by non-experts…and have many minor errors and out-of-date information, this is 99–99.9%+ accurate (as far as I can tell).---Novel 2019 Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19): An Updated Overview for Emergency Clinicians---I made three short collections of excerpts at:(4a) Some cool tables & diagrams (Easy to read for everyone)https://www.quora.com/q/coronavirus/Novel-2019-Coronavirus-SARS-CoV-2-COVID-19-An-Updated-Overview-for-Emergency-Clinicians-03-23-20-EB-Medicine/comment/1471753(4b) When to Test, Lung Ultrasound instead of CT, Drugs, Vaccineshttps://www.quora.com/q/coronavirus/Novel-2019-Coronavirus-SARS-CoV-2-COVID-19-An-Updated-Overview-for-Emergency-Clinicians-03-23-20-EB-Medicine/comment/1471880(4c) Interesting tidbitshttps://www.quora.com/q/coronavirus/Novel-2019-Coronavirus-SARS-CoV-2-COVID-19-An-Updated-Overview-for-Emergency-Clinicians-03-23-20-EB-Medicine/comment/1471927(5) Tirumalai Kamala's answer to What is the big deal about the new coronavirus, COVID-19? is good to read about top unanswered issues.(6) Dr. Muge Cevik has curated a collection of favorite papers (78) in a multi-thread tweet (Jan 28, Feb 28, Mar 22) from 1,250+ HCoV-19 papers. Mitchell Tsai's share in COVID-19: Top 25 - MTPeople age 20–54 have low fatality (0.1–0.8%), but many are hospitalized (14.3–28.3%) or need an ICU (2.0–10.4%).- Yes, Young People Are Falling Seriously Ill From Covid-19 (Bloomberg, 3/18/20)- ATAndyBiotech on twitter- Ed Taboada's answer to As a medical professional, what is your biggest concern about COVID-19?How bad is COVID-19 if you have a severe case?Read A Medical Worker Describes Terrifying Lung Failure From COVID-19 — Even in His Young Patients — ProPublica (3/21/20). Many more details than I’ve posted here. Scary. Chinese doctors were reporting similar scary experiences in January. It’s why people put Wuhan under quarantine on Jan 23. Often stories from doctors were censored so that people wouldn’t panic.“I spoke to a respiratory therapist there [New Orleans], whose job is to ensure that patients are breathing well. He works in a medium-sized city hospital’s intensive care unit…Since last week, he’s been running ventilators for the sickest COVID-19 patients. Many are relatively young, in their 40s and 50s, and have minimal, if any, preexisting conditions in their charts. He is overwhelmed, stunned by the manifestation of the infection, both its speed and intensity. The ICU where he works has essentially become a coronavirus unit.”‘I have patients in their early 40s and, yeah, I was kind of shocked. I’m seeing people who look relatively healthy with a minimal health history, and they are completely wiped out, like they’ve been hit by a truck. This is knocking out what should be perfectly fit, healthy people. Patients will be on minimal support, on a little bit of oxygen, and then all of a sudden, they go into complete respiratory arrest, shut down and can’t breathe at all.’“It’s called acute respiratory distress syndrome, ARDS. That means the lungs are filled with fluid. And it’s notable for the way the X-ray looks: The entire lung is basically whited out from fluid. Patients with ARDS are extremely difficult to oxygenate. It has a really high mortality rate, about 40%. The way to manage it is to put a patient on a ventilator. The additional pressure helps the oxygen go into the bloodstream.“Normally, ARDS is something that happens over time as the lungs get more and more inflamed. But with this virus, it seems like it happens overnight. When you’re healthy, your lung is made up of little balloons. Like a tree is made out of a bunch of little leaves, the lung is made of little air sacs that are called the alveoli. When you breathe in, all of those little air sacs inflate, and they have capillaries in the walls, little blood vessels. The oxygen gets from the air in the lung into the blood so it can be carried around the body.“With our coronavirus patients, once they’re on ventilators, most need about the highest settings that we can do. About 90% oxygen, and 16 of PEEP, positive end-expiratory pressure, which keeps the lung inflated. This is nearly as high as I’ve ever seen. The level we’re at means we are running out of options.“It first struck me how different it was when I saw my first coronavirus patient go bad. I was like, Holy shit, this is not the flu. Watching this relatively young guy, gasping for air, pink frothy secretions coming out of his tube and out of his mouth. The ventilator should have been doing the work of breathing but he was still gasping for air, moving his mouth, moving his body, struggling. We had to restrain him. With all the coronavirus patients, we’ve had to restrain them. They really hyperventilate, really struggle to breathe. When you’re in that mindstate of struggling to breathe and delirious with fever, you don’t know when someone is trying to help you, so you’ll try to rip the breathing tube out because you feel it is choking you, but you are drowning.”- A Medical Worker Describes Terrifying Lung Failure From COVID-19 — Even in His Young Patients — ProPublica (3/21/20).The US news cycle is slowly discovering the stuff which encouraged people to put Wuhan under quarantine on Jan 23. COVID-19 can be MUCH worse than most flus and colds. We’re lucky it doesn’t affect kids very much.Just because you don't feel sick, doesn’t mean you are safe to other people.“March 10 estimate by a group of scientists, published in the Annals of Internal Medicine, of the incubation period of the virus.As Vox’s Brian Resnick explains, “you can see that nearly everyone who develops symptoms of Covid-19 shows them around 10 to 15 days after the infection, and the majority get symptoms by around five days.”- 11 coronavirus charts everyone should see (Vox, 3/17/20)How to make your own masks.Do-It-Yourself (DIY) hand sanitizer not recommended.Laboratory tests by City University showed 80-90% of the function of regular surgical masks for filtering aerosol and droplets.- Make your own mask: Hong Kong scientists reveal temporary solution to shortage (2/14/20)“Mixing it at home, you can't control how the alcohol gets diluted in the final product. If you don't use enough aloe gel, it will dry out the skin on your hands, which can cause it to crack or bleed (the same is true if you just pour rubbing alcohol on your skin).But if you don't use enough alcohol, the final product won't be as effective at killing germs as store-bought hand sanitizer -- rendering it basically useless according to some experts.You can also contaminate your batch with bacteria by not using clean tools to mix it together.”- No, you shouldn't make your own hand sanitizer (CNET, 3/5/20)Update 3/24/20: HCoV-19 may be active on surfaces for 17 days or longer.Please watch the news for further updates."SARS-CoV-2 RNA was identified on a variety of surfaces in cabins of both symptomatic and asymptomatic infected passengers up to 17 days after cabins were vacated on the Diamond Princess but before disinfection procedures had been conducted"- CDC says coronavirus survived in Princess Cruise ship cabins for up to 17 days after passengers left (CNBC, 3/24/20)- Public Health Responses to COVID-19 Outbreaks on Cruise Ships... (CDC)What should I do when receiving packages or shopping?Mitchell Tsai's answer to Hello I'm not trying to panic but my question is I ordered a package from China before the outbreak is this package safe for me to open once it gets here I know a lot of people are wondering the same thing? in Coronavirus WatchWhat happens to kids?New American Academy of Pediatrics study (3/18/20)3.0–10.6% severe/critical cases. Possible lung damage after recovery.94.2% (2,016/2,141) asymptomatic, mild, or moderate cases.WHO-China Joint Mission report:~49% critical patients die~15–20% severe patients become critical- https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf (2/24/20)- New analysis of coronavirus risk: Young adults are not invincible - STAT- Epidemiological Characteristics of 2143 Pediatric Patients With 2019 Coronavirus Disease in China (American Academy of Pediatrics, 3/18/20)Also posted as Mitchell Tsai's answer to What scientific studies have been done on kids with COVID-19?Soap works better than hand sanitizer.Why Soap Works (New York Times - 3/13/20)Update 3/13/20: History of HCoV-19.New info shows cases back to Nov 17 - a Hubei resident age 55 (first seafood market case was Dec 8), and they are still tracking backward to “person zero” - maybe infected Nov 14 (or earlier).- China’s first confirmed Covid-19 case traced back to November 17 (3/13/20)Genetic studies by four research groups estimate HCoV-19 infected “patient zero” in Aug-Nov 2019.----Conclusion: Wuhan seafood market transmission was probably caused by people who were already sick with COVID-19. Not from food eaten there.“Patient zero" could have caught it at the Wuhan seafood market Aug 1 - Nov 7, 2019, and then they (or other people) could have come back in December.Note: Longer history and genetic information towards the end of this answer.How does HCoV-19 (SARS-CoV-2) compare to 1918 Spanish Flu and Seasonal Flu?- graph is based on older 2/11/20 data (N=44,672)- mitchelltsai on Twitter (mitchelltsai on Twitter) (picture is from a Tweet by Seb Allaman - @AllamanSeb)- Newer 2/22/20 data (N=55,924) has CFR 3.8% (was 2.3%), and Age 80+ 21.9% (was 14.8%)- 11 coronavirus charts everyone should see (Vox, 3/17/20)At peak shedding, people with HCoV-19 emit over 1,000X more virus than SARS, which explains the rapid spread of HCoV-19.Infected people develop antibodies quickly (6-12 days), which may be why 80% of people infected do not develop severe disease.- People 'shed' coronavirus early, but most likely not infectious after recovery (3/9/20)A mathematical model suggests maybe 26% (0–32%) of people catch HCoV-19 from others who haven't had any symptoms yet (in a model with R = 2.5).Update 3/16/20: European CDC says other models suggest 48–62% asymptomatic transmission.In Italy, 44% of laboratory-confirmed cases have been asymptomatic.- Disease background of COVID-19 (ECDC)Analysis of serial intervals in 425 cases. Data from a cluster of cases in Germany suggest the proportion might be higher than 26%.- The Contribution of Pre-symptomatic Transmission to the COVID-19 Outbreak (3/2/20)In Singapore and Tianjin, infection was transmitted 2.55 and 2.89 days before symptom onset (on average).Estimated serial intervals are shorter than incubation periods, suggesting pre-symptomatic transmission.“The mean incubation period was 7.1 (6.13, 8.25) days for Singapore and 9 (7.92, 10.2) days for Tianjin. Both datasets had shorter incubation periods for earlier-occurring cases.The mean serial interval was 4.56 (2.69, 6.42) days for Singapore and 4.22 (3.43, 5.01) for Tianjin.We inferred that early in the outbreaks, infection was transmitted on average 2.55 and 2.89 days before symptom onset (Singapore, Tianjin).The estimated basic reproduction number for Singapore was 1.97 (1.45, 2.48) secondary cases per infective; for Tianjin it was 1.87 (1.65, 2.09) secondary cases per infective.”- Transmission interval estimates suggest pre-symptomatic spread of COVID-19 (3/2/20)How can we control the spread of HCoV-19?This mathematical model estimates…"To achieve control of 90% of outbreaks, 80% of contacts needed to be traced and isolated for scenarios with a reproduction number of 2.5"- Feasibility of controlling COVID-19 outbreaks by isolation of cases and contacts (2/28/20)- Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now (Tomas Pueyo, Medium)Can I catch HCoV-19 from breathing the air near a sick person? Yes.Coronavirus can travel twice as far as the official ‘safe distance’ (4.5 meters) and stay in the air for at least 30 minutes. A bus passenger was infected 30 min after a sick passenger left the bus.This paper has been officially retracted (see below), possibly for politcal reasons.The coronavirus that causes Covid-19 can linger in the air for at least 30 minutes and travel up to 4.5 metres – further than the “safe distance” advised by health authorities around the world, according to a study by a team of Chinese government epidemiologists.Their work was based on a local outbreak case on January 22 during the peak Lunar New Year travel season. A passenger, known as “A”, boarded a fully booked long-distance coach and settled down on the second row from the back.They said the study proves the importance of washing hands and wearing face masks in public places because the virus can linger in the air attached to fine droplet particles.“Our advice is to wear a face mask all the way [through the bus ride],” they added.- Coronavirus can travel twice as far as official ‘safe distance’, study says (South China Morning Post, 3/9/20)“A paper by Chinese researchers suggesting that the coronavirus could spread farther than previously assumed through fine droplets has been retracted.On March 10, the journal posted a “statement of retraction” signed by its editorial department, without offering any reasons.The researchers also found that none of those passengers who wore face masks were infected, a finding that they said supported China’s decision to ask people to wear a mask in public whether or not they show respiratory symptoms.Before the retraction, a doctor in Beijing involved in the diagnosis and treatment of coronavirus patients told the South China Morning Post the study had left some questions unanswered.For instance, the passengers sitting immediately next to the carriers were not infected, though they were most exposed to the disease-bearing droplets known as aerosols.“Our knowledge about this virus’s transmission is still limited,” he said.- Journal retracts study on how far coronavirus can spread through droplets (Inkstone, 3/10/20)What are COVID-19 symptoms?New York Times posted a great overview article.- What Does the Coronavirus Do to the Body? (New York Times, 3/11/20)Please read. It contains many details I don’t talk about in this answer.“Here’s what scientists have learned about how the new virus infects and attacks cells and how it can affect organs beyond the lungs.”What Does the Coronavirus Do to the Body? (New York Times, 3/11/20)Excerpts from Mitchell Tsai's answer to What are the symptoms of Coronavirus?Most people have fever (87.9%), dry cough (67.7%), and fatigue (38.1%).(a) Only 4.8% have nasal congestion. It’s rare.(b) Only 11.4% have chills, unlike flu.(c) Only 13.6% have headache.(d) Some people just have intestinal upset (5.0% nausea/vomiting, 3.7% diarrhea). No fever, cough, or fatigue. It’s not common, but it happens.- https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf (WHO-China mission final report, 2/24/20)“Anosmia, the loss of sense of smell, and ageusia, an accompanying diminished sense of taste, have emerged as peculiar telltale signs of Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, and possible markers of infection.On Friday, British ear, nose and throat doctors, citing reports from colleagues around the world, called on adults who lose their senses of smell to isolate themselves for seven days, even if they have no other symptoms, to slow the disease’s spread.Dr. Clemens Wendtner, a professor of medicine at the Academic Teaching Hospital of Ludwig-Maximilians University of Munich, said that the patients regained their ability to smell after a few days or weeks, and that the loss occurred regardless of how sick they got or whether they were congested. Using nasal drops or sprays did not help, Dr. Wendtner said.Now, Mr. Berry said, he literally cannot smell the coffee.“Even with a clear nose, I just realized I couldn’t smell the food that I was cooking, and I couldn’t taste the food that I was making,” said Mr. Berry, a tattoo artist based in Orlando, Fla. He was cooking a plantain dish with onions and vinegar, yet he could not smell it.”- Lost Sense of Smell May Be Peculiar Clue to Coronavirus Infection (New York Times, 3/22/20)Fever seems more common in age 20–59 (85–91%, 77–97%) than in age 0–19 and 60+ (70–81%, 48–91%).Proportion of people without fever (N=1,286, Shenzen, China, 3/3/20):Age 0–9: 30% (15–52%) no feverAge 10–19: 25% (9–54%)Age 70+: 22% (9–45%)- Epidemiology and Transmission of COVID-19 in Shenzhen China: Analysis of 391 cases and 1,286 of their close contacts) (3/3/20)N=55,924 (cases in China until 2/22/20…from page 12):“typical signs and symptoms include: fever (87.9%), dry cough (67.7%), fatigue (38.1%), sputum production (33.4%), shortness of breath (18.6%), sore throat (13.9%), headache (13.6%), myalgia or arthralgia (14.8%), chills (11.4%), nausea or vomiting (5.0%), nasal congestion (4.8%), diarrhea (3.7%), and hemoptysis (0.9%), and conjunctival congestion (0.8%).”- https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf (WHO-China mission final report, 2/24/20)Note: Many people in 2010s-2020s have body temperatures below 98.6° F (37° C).(a) 98.2° F (36.8° C) for young people(b) 97.7° F (36.4° C) for healthy older people (94–99.6° F).Know your own body temperature.“Normal body temperature is not a single number, but rather a range of temperatures. The average normal body temperature is most often said to be 98.6° F (37° C). This may have been correct when it was first determined 150 years ago. But our bodies have changed.More recent research suggests that the average adult body temperature is about one degree lower, 97.5° F (36.4° C). Older adults often have an even lower body temperature without it indicating any health problems.However, recent studies indicate that 98.2° F (36.8°C) is a more accurate average, and in older individuals it may be about 1°F lower. One small study even suggested that in healthy older patients, body temperature ranged from 94° F to 99.6° F, with an average of 97.7° F.”- When is body temperature too low? - Harvard Health (1/29/20)- Influenza kills more people than coronavirus so everyone is overreacting, right? Wrong — and here’s whyHow long before most people notice COVID-19 symptoms?Median times:Five days to be short of breath.Seven days to hospitalization.Eight days to severe breathing trouble.Perhaps 50–70% of infected people never show symptoms.Some people take 24, 26, 34, …, 94 days to show symptoms.This mathematical analysis estimates only 1% will display symptoms after a 14-day quarantine, but there is a chance.Incubation Period (from N=181 study)Median 5.1 (4.5-5.8) days to show symptoms97.5% in 11.5 (8.2-15.6) daysHypothetically:After a 14-day quarantine, 1% will display symptoms afterwardsAfter a 7-day quarantine, 21% will display symptoms- Coronavirus sufferers symptom-free for five days on average – study (Guardian, 3/9/20)- The Incubation Period of COVID-19 From Publicly Reported Confirmed Cases (Annals of Internal Medicine, 3/10/20)“The median time from their first symptoms to when they became short of breath was five days; to hospitalization, seven days; and to severe breathing trouble, eight days.”- Coronavirus Live Updates: Offers of Help Go Unanswered by China as Death Toll Grows Again (New York Times, 2/7/20)The Diamond Princess cruiseship is one of the rare examples where everyone was tested (all 3,711 people), regardless of whether they showed symptoms.- 62% (476/768) who tested positive showed no symptoms- 9% (80, 8 in Japan, 72 in other countries) later showed symptoms: US (46), Australia (10), Hong Kong (5), UK (4), Russia (3), Israel (3), Canada. 14 of the US people showed symptoms right off the boat.- so it’s down to 53% (410/768) asymptomatic (as of 3/9/20)Proportion of individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2 showing symptoms among passengers of the Diamond Princess ship (with 95% credible interval).- Adjusted age-specific case fatality ratio during the COVID-19 epidemic in Hubei, China, January and February 2020 (3/4/20)Age-group data from 4 countries:- ATAndyBiotech on twitter- Ed Taboada's answer to As a medical professional, what is your biggest concern about COVID-19?Korean age-group data from Wed 3/11/20 (N=7,755):Age 80+ 7.20% CFRAge 70–79 4.35%Age 60–69 1.46%Age 30–59 <1% (8/3,358)Age 0–29 0% (0/2,718)Overall 0.77%Male 1.19%Female 0.52%Average is heavily weighted(a) age 20–29 women(b) more females- Robin Daverman's answer to Why does Italy seem to be the most affected country by the Coronavirus?Italy age-group data from Sun 3/15/20 (N=13,323):- Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Italy (JAMA, 3/17/20)- COVID-19 Case-Fatality Rate and Characteristics of Patients Dying in Italy (JAMA, 3/23/20)China age-groups - Old 2/11/20 data (N=44,672):- https://github.com/cmrivers/ncov... (2/16/20)China age-groups - Old 2/11/20 data (N=44,672):IFR (Infection Fatality Ratio) = deaths/all-infected-people-with-and-without-symptoms - includes asymptomatics, AND adjusted for underreporting.CFR (Case Fatality Rate) = deaths/symptomaticIFR for age 0–29 is lower than CFRIFR for age 30–59 is about the same as the CFRIFR for age 60–80+ is higher than CFROverall IFR 1.6% (1.4-1.8%) vs CFR 2.4% (2.1–2.8%)Age 0-9 .0094%10-19 .022% (0–0.082%) vs CFR 0.25% (0–1.3%)20-29 .091% (0.03–0.2%) vs CFR 0.22% (0.04–0.51%)30-39 .18%40-49 .4%50-59 1.3%60-69 4.6% (3.8-5.4%) vs CFR 3.8% (3.1–4.7%)70-79 9.8% (8.2-12%) vs CFR 8.5% (6.9–10%)80+ 18% (14-22%) vs CFR 15% (12–18%)- 11 coronavirus charts everyone should see (Vox, 3/17/20) - Adjusted age-specific case fatality ratio during the COVID-19 epidemic in Hubei, China, January and February 2020 (3/4/20)China age-groups - Old 2/11/20 data (N=44,672):Newer 2/22/20 data has Age 80+ 21.9% (was 14.8%) but China didn’t release age-group data for age 0–79, so this is still the best set of China age-group data.- Tirumalai Kamala's answer to What is the big deal about the new coronavirus, COVID-19? (2/17/20)- https://github.com/cmrivers/ncov/blob/master/COVID-19.pdf (2/17/20)China age-groups - Newer 2/22/20 data (N=55,924)WHO-China Mission report: CFR increased in 2/22/20 data (N=55,924) vs 2/11/20 data (N=44,672):CFR 3.8% (was 2.3%)Male 4.7% (was 2.8%)Female 2.8% (was 1.7%)No Co-morbidity 1.4% (was 0.9%)Age 80+ 21.9% (was 14.8%)CFR dropped over time from 17.3% (people admitted in 1/1-10) to 0.7% (people admitted after 1/31). Why?(1) In Jan, people got to the hospital an average of 15 days after infection. By late Feb, they got to the hospital in only 2–3 days (on average).(2) China learned better ways to keep people alive. After 7 weeks, they were on their 6th version of national patient care guidelines.- Partial summary at https://www.quora.com/q/lktjmwgkoxgvdzpp/WATCH-World-Health-Organization-delivers-update-on-the-coronavirus-as-it-continues-to-spread/comment/1361305 - Mitchell Tsai's share of "WATCH: World Health Organization delivers update on the coronavirus as it continues to spread" in COVID-19 and SARS-CoV-2 (Tue 2/25/20 8 am PT)- https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf (WHO-China report, 2/24/20)Can you be reinfected? Unknown. Probably yes.If HCoV-19 is like the four other mild coronaviruses (which are probably responsible for 1/4 of all “common colds”), you can be reinfected.HCoV-19 appears similar to OC43, the strongest of the four, but seems to be more fatal for older people.(1) 4 mild coronaviruses circulate in people: OC43, 229E, HKU1, and NL63.(2) Mostly OC43 and 229E(3) OC43 is the strongest, and requires intensive care for 15%.(4) Asymptomatic: 18% OC43, 35% 229E(5) Death rate: ~0.2% (US Flu is ~0.1%)(6) Can get reinfected.- Mitchell Tsai's share of "Experts envision two scenarios if new coronavirus isn't contained - STAT" in COVID-19 and SARS-CoV-2How long is HCoV-19 active on packages (cardboard), door knobs (steel, copper), and in the air?Short version:Air: 3 hoursCardboard: 1 day, 2 days to be undetectableSteel: 2–3 days, 4 days to be undetectablePlastic: 3 days, 4 days to be undetectable- How long can the novel coronavirus survive on surfaces and in the air?(Economist diagram, 3/19/20)Excerpts from Mitchell Tsai's answer to How long does CoV19 last on surfaces?Update 3/21/20: These half-lives have changed since the 3/9/20 preprint. They come from the NEJM 3/17/20 final version.Boldface numbers are visual estimates from small graphs.Regular numbers are from text in the paper.HCoV-19 half-lives:Copper 0.8 hrs (0.43–1.3 hrs)Aerosol 1.1–1.2 hrs (0.64–2.64 hrs)Cardboard 3.5 hrs (2–5 hrs)Steel 5.6 hrs (4.5–7 hrs)Plastic 6.8 hrs (5.5–8.5 hrs)- Aerosol and Surface Stability of SARS-CoV-2 as Compared with SARS-CoV-1 | NEJM (NEJM final correspondence, 3/17/20)Mask Advice: Since there’s so much random mask advice…(1) Official WHO recommendations (1/29/20): https://www.thebeijinger.com/sites/default/files/advice-on-the-use-of-masks-2019-ncov.pdf(2) Other observationsMasks are NOT enough if around very sick people.In an early Chinese surgery case, all 14 people in the surgery area caught HCoV-19 even with masks & gowns. Masks are NOT enough, since the virus can infect the eye area. Goggles and full face shields are now used in hospitals around very sick people.How useful is a mask in public to help keep you healthy?Update 3/9/20: Coronavirus can travel twice as far as official ‘safe distance’ (4.5 meters) and stay in air for 30 minutes.Chinese advice is “Wear masks in public”:“…the study proves the importance of washing hands and wearing face masks in public places because the virus can linger in the air attached to fine droplet particles.”“Our advice is to wear a face mask all the way [through the bus ride],” they added.- Coronavirus can travel twice as far as official ‘safe distance’, study says (South China Morning Post, 3/9/20)US advice is “Save masks for health workers, because we didn’t make and stockpile enough masks after the WHO warning on Jan 1 (2.5+ months).”HCoV-19 is ~125 nm (0.1 μm, ~150–300 atoms) in diameter, which is smaller than the 300 nm (0.3 μm, ~400–900 atoms) size N95 masks protect against.But most virus arrives in liquid droplets.IQAir HyperHEPA room filters claim to remove 99.5% of particles down to 3 nm (0.003 μm, ~4–8 atoms) diameter. HEPA filters remove 99.95% (Europe) or 99.97% (US) of particles down to 300 nm (0.3 μm, ~400–900 atoms).If you are sick, a mask in public will help keep other people healthy.But if you have HCoV-19, you probably should be inside (self-quarantine) or in a hospital.If buying food/supplies or going to a hospital, use a mask (if you can…many infected people have trouble breathing).“Surgical masks are highly effective against large airborne droplets.These traditional masks are less effective with small droplets, as they can travel farther and in unpredictable paths affected by wind and other gusts. The droplets can be inhaled around the sides of the masks.”- Blisse Edgerton's answer to What should you know about the new strain of coronavirus in China?What treatments do people receive in hospitals?Mainly people need help breathing.About 1/4 of severe/critical people need mechanical ventilation.About 3/4 just need additional oxygen.If it gets really bad, there’s an advanced breathing machine called ECMO.Most people who get that bad don’t recover. One needed a lung transplant.Treatments given to 99 patients in Wuhan:- “Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 99 cases of 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia in Wuhan, China: a descriptive study” (1/25/20) https://marlin-prod.literatumonline.com/pb-assets/Lancet/pdfs/S0140673620302117.pdfWhat is the status of drugs, vitamins, and alternative medicine for treating COVID-19?I’m writing a work-in-progress - 19 drugs, vitamins, and other things in clinical studies around the world. Mitchell Tsai's answer to Are there any effective natural or artificial treatments (antivirals, malaria drugs, human serum, and Traditional Chinese Medicine - TCM) against SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19)?We don’t know 100% that anything works (e.g. confirmed in double-blinded trials against placebos). A few things seem to help, but it’s hard to tell when 75-99% of people recover anyways. So medical experts are waiting for trials with placebos.First four drugs are the most beneficial ones. #1 approved for use in China. #2–4 undergoing the most clinical trials (e.g. testing drugs against placebos).(1) Favilavir (nucleoside analog of Guanine (G), a DNA/RNA base)(2) Remdesivir (nucleotide analog of Adenosine (A), a DNA/RNA base)(3) Lopinavir / Ritonavir (protease inhibitors)(4) Chloroquine (anti-malaria - we don’t know how it works…on malaria or viruses)- T-705 (Favipiravir)- Guanine - WikipediaIf you want to try Vitamins…Vitamin A, B12, C, and D are pretty good immune boosters.WARNING: Some people have medical issues which make high doses dangerous (slight danger or even life-threatening). Please consult doctors first.There are websites which list counter-indications, but it’s DIFFICULT to find the best advice without a lot of searching and some health/medical experience.You probably want to test Vitamin D & B12 blood levels first before using them.WAY TOO MUCH LOW-QUALITY INFO out there.Vitamin C megadosing helps lighten symptoms in 85% of mild cases (N=252), but doesn’t help severe patients who have breathing issues (ARDS).WARNING: Vitamin C megadoses are DANGEROUS for some people (especially with KIDNEY and other issues, please consult doctors).“In a controlled but non-randomized trial, 85% of the 252 students treated experienced a reduction in symptoms in the high-dose vitamin C group (1g / h at the beginning of symptoms for 6h, followed by 3 * 1g / day).Among patients with sepsis and ARDS, patients in the high-dose vitamin group did not show a better prognosis and other clinical outcomes.There are still some confounding factors in the existing research, and the conclusions are different.”- Vitamin C Infusion for the Treatment of Severe 2019-nCoV Infected Pneumonia - Full Text View - ClinicalTrials.govWhat is the status of vaccines?Many vaccine candidates have been created, but they need to be tested (1 year, or 5–10 years). Some approaches are:(1) NIH & US biotech Moderna - RNA vaccine based on crown-like spikes(2) University of Queensland in Australia, CEPI - "molecular clamp"(3) Vir Biotechnology - Monoclonal antibodies (mAbs)- With Wuhan virus genetic code in hand, scientists begin work on a vaccine“Even if a vaccine were ready within a year, it would be too late to stem the current epidemic in China. But it could help other countries.Fears are growing that the Wuhan virus will spread more widely and become an established seasonal disease around the world, like the common flu.China’s extraordinary efforts to contain the virus, including quarantining over 50m people, may stave off epidemics in other countries until next winter.”“Once a vaccine has been developed in a laboratory, it is sent to a factory where it is turned into a sterile vaccine mix. This is then put into vials and tested to ensure it is not contaminated before clinical trials in humans can be carried out.She leads a group at Oxford University which is working on a vaccine against the Wuhan virus. Her group has developed a template for vaccines that can be adapted quickly for new pathogens. The researchers can make the first small quantities of a new vaccine in just six to eight weeks. In the past the process would have taken up to a year.There are not many factories that can mass-produce vaccines, so new vaccines often wait in a long queue. Aware of this problem, the American government has built dedicated manufacturing facilities that can produce vaccines rapidly for emergencies. Britain is doing something similar.On February 3rd it brought on board as a partner GSK, a big drug firm, which has agreed to lend its highly effective adjuvant to a new vaccine. An adjuvant is a special ingredient that makes vaccines more efficient by boosting the immune response—which means that fewer doses of the vaccine or a lower concentration of its core ingredient is needed for vaccination.”- The race to produce a vaccine for the latest coronavirus (Economist, 2/6/20)How long does a test take? 2–3 hrs in a lab.It only takes a few hours to test for the virus (using Real-Time PCR … RT-PCR).Why do tests sometimes take days? A backlog of other people’s tests, limited equipment, limited and tired staff, paperwork, and bureaucracy.“The CDC…can diagnose a sample in a few hours once a blood specimen reaches a designated lab.”- Op-ed: We need to prepare for US outbreak of Wuhan coronavirus (CNBC)- Real-Time RT-PCR Panel for Detection 2019-nCoV (CDC Instructions)Can pets be infected? Yes. A dog in Hong Kong has been infected.Can humans transmit HCoV-19 to pets? Yes.Can pets transmit HCoV-19 to humans? Unknown.Excerpts from Mitchell Tsai's answer to Can household pets catch SARS-CoV-2 without showing symptoms?“The World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) published a report of the emerging disease, listing this case as the first known in dogs.On Feb. 26, health officials in Hong Kong placed a dog under quarantine after hospitalizing its owner for COVID-19 coronavirus infection.Veterinarians confirmed that the coronavirus had infected the dog too after taking nasal, oral and rectal swabs, along with fecal samples.Follow-up oral and nasal samples taken on March 2 and 5 continues to test positive.Doctors and veterinarians don’t know if the COVID-19 virus has the potential to be zoonotic, or transmitted from dogs to people.Doctors believe the dog got the virus directly from its owner. However, doctors don’t know how the virus was transmitted to the dog, whether by airborne particles, direct contact or bodily fluids.In Hong Kong, health authorities quarantine mammalian pets from households with confirmed human cases of COVID-19 and place the animals under veterinary surveillance for 14 days, according to the report.”- Dog infected by coronavirus COVID-19 in Hong Kong (3/9/20)“The AFCD said experts from universities and the World Organisation for Animal Health have unanimously agreed that "it is likely to be a case of human-to-animal transmission".The pomeranian has not shown any novel coronavirus symptoms the AFCD said.All pets of people in Hong Kong infected with the coronavirus will be quarantined for 14 days, starting Friday. Two dogs are already in isolation.The other dog in quarantine belongs to a second coronavirus patient that tested negative for the virus once and will be tested again before its release.Authorities said it will continue to closely monitor the pomeranian and return it to its owner when it tests negative for the disease.”- Pet dog infected with COVID-19, Hong Kong authorities confirm - France 24 (3/4/20)How fast does the virus spread? Each person infects 1.4–6.77 othersSeven R0 estimates: 4.08 (3.37–6.77, China/HK), 1.9–3.2 (Harvard), 2.6 (1.5-3.5, London), 2.24–3.58 (1.96–4.39, Hong Kong), 3.11 (2.39–4.13, Lancaster), 2.2 (90% 1.4-3.8, Swiss) 2.92 (2.28–3.67, Guandong)4.08 (3.37–6.77, 12/31–1/5) Zhidong Cao, et al., China & Hong Kong (1/29/20)Estimating the effective reproduction number of the 2019-nCoV in China1.9 - 3.2 (1/26/20) Maximum Majumder, Kenneth D. Mandl, Harvard (1/27/20)1.4 - 3.3 (1/18/20)Early Transmissibility Assessment of a Novel Coronavirus in Wuhan, China2.6 (1.5–3.5, -1/24) Natsuko Imai, et al., Imperial College, London (1/26/20)https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-2019-nCoV-transmissibility.pdf2.24–3.58 (1.96–4.39, -1/21) Shi Zhao, et al., Chinese University of Hong Kong (1/23/20)Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak3.11 (2.39-4.13, -1/22) Jonathan Read, et al, Lancaster (1/23/20)Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions2.2 (90% NOT 95%, 1.4-3.8, based on 897 cases until 1/23/20) Julian Riou, Christian Althaus, Switzerland (1/24/20)jriou/wcov2.90–2.92 (2.28-3.67, based on 830 cases until 1/23/20) Tao Liu, et al., Guandong (1/26/20)https://biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.25.919787v1.full.pdfWhen did HCoV-19 first appear in humans?Aug-Nov 2019 - Four genetic studiesStill looking through records for “Patient Zero”Nov 17, 2019 - 1st known case (originally thought to be 12/1/19, 12/8/19, or 12/12/19).1-5 new cases each day after Nov 17.Dec 15 (27 cases)Dec 20 (60 cases)Dec 27 (180 cases)Dec 31 (266 cases)Jan 1, 2020 (381 cases)“Government records suggest first person infected with new disease may have been a Hubei resident aged 55, but ‘patient zero’ has yet to be confirmed”- China’s first confirmed Covid-19 case traced back to November 17 (3/13/20)Estimated start dates from four genetic studies are:Sep 2019 - 26 genomes (91–214 days before 12/1/19)https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.30.926477v1.full.pdf (Xiong et al, 1/30/20, bioRxiv)11/9/19 - 12 genomes (as early as 9/25/19, 95% credible interval)Potential of large “first generation” human‐to‐human transmission of 2019‐nCoV (Li et al., Journal of Medical Virology, 1/30/20)11/17/19 - 86 genomes (as early as 8/27/19, 95% credible interval)Phylodynamic Analysis | 176 genomes | 6 Mar 2020 (Andrew Rambaut, Edinburgh, UK, 3/6/20)12/5/19 - 53 genomes (as early as 11/6/19, 95% credible interval)https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College---COVID-19---genetic-analysis-FINAL.pdf (WHO, Imperial College, 2/14/20)- 5 of first six cases known then NOT from Huanan seafood market- Amy Yu's answer to How serious is the 2019–20 Coronavirus? (Chinese CDC paper, 1/29/20)- 3 of first four cases known then NOT from Huanan seafood market- https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5.pdf (Lancet, 1/24/20, updated 1/30/20)- Early Transmissibility Assessment of a Novel Coronavirus in Wuhan, China (Harvard, 1/27/20)- Wuhan seafood market may not be source of novel virus spreading globally (1/26/20)- Wuhan seafood market may not be only source of novel coronavirus: expert (1/29/20)- Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now (Tomas Pueyo, Medium)Note: JAMA Diagram is amazing, but has some history errors.First case: 11/17/19 (earlier it was believed to be 12/1/19, 12/8/19, or 1214/19)HCoV-19 (2019-nCoV) identified: 1/2/20, not 1/7/20.Sequence shared: 1/5–1/10/10, not 1/12/20.Test kits available: 1/13/20. Test was being used before 1/9/20, but “kits” might not have been sent anywhere else until later.——-11/17/19: First confirmed case. Still searching for “patient zero”.12/30/19: Dr. Ai got the results for the laboratory test she ordered. It said “SARS coronavirus”. Dr. Li told more than 100 of his medical-school classmates “7 SARS cases confirmed at Hua’nan Seafood Market”1/2/20: Wuhan Institute of Virology sequenced virus (but kept it secret)1/5/20: Shanghai medical center sequenced virus and uploaded it to GenBank - Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 isolate Wuhan-Hu-1, co 1/7/20: HCoV-19 (2019-nCoV) announced by Chinese authorities1/9/20: Test was used to detect HCoV-19 in 15 other patients.新型冠状病毒！武汉不明原因肺炎“元凶”初步判定_新闻_央视网(cctv.com)1/10/20: Virological announced the GenBank sequence Novel 2019 coronavirus genome1/12/20: Possible the GenBank sequence was not publicly available until this date (although deposited on 1/5/20).- How It All Started: China’s Early Coronavirus Missteps (Wall Street Journal, 3/6/20)“2019-nCoV was closely related (with 88% identity) to two bat-derived severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)-like coronaviruses, bat-SL-CoVZC45 and bat-SL-CoVZXC21, collected in 2018 in Zhoushan, eastern China, but were more distant from SARS-CoV (about 79%) and MERS-CoV (about 50%).These data are consistent with a bat reservoir for coronaviruses in general and for 2019-nCoV in particular. However, despite the importance of bats, several facts suggest that another animal is acting as an intermediate host between bats and humans.First, the outbreak was first reported in late December, 2019, when most bat species in Wuhan are hibernating.Second, no bats were sold or found at the Huanan seafood market, whereas various non-aquatic animals (including mammals) were available for purchase.Third, the sequence identity between 2019-nCoV and its close relatives bat-SL-CoVZC45 and bat-SL-CoVZXC21 was less than 90%, which is reflected in the relatively long branch between them.Hence, bat-SL-CoVZC45 and bat-SL-CoVZXC21 are not direct ancestors of 2019-nCoV.Fourth, in both SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, bats acted as the natural reservoir, with another animal (masked palm civet for SARS-CoV and dromedary camels for MERS-CoV) acting as an intermediate host, with humans as terminal hosts.Therefore, on the basis of current data, it seems likely that the 2019-nCoV causing the Wuhan outbreak might also be initially hosted by bats, and might have been transmitted to humans via currently unknown wild animal(s) sold at the Huanan seafood market.”- Genomic characterisation and epidemiology of 2019 novel coronavirus: implications for virus origins and receptor binding (Lancet, 1/30/20)- See discussion at Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding on Twitter- https://nextstrain.org/groups/blab/sars-like-cov (1/27/20)How is HCoV-19 changing now?I keep a daily update on HCoV-19 varieties in North America hereHCoV-19 varieties in North AmericaAs of 3/11/20, there are 47 US/Canadian genomes (44 US, 3 Canada) out of 333 genomes at NextStrain/GISAID auspice - live website that anyone can play with.Nextstrain (@nextstrain) | Twitter posts updates when they upload new genomes.- auspice (NextStrain/GISAID live website)Washington state cluster:- Second diagram is by “divergence” (not time). Viruses on the right have more mutations than the ones on the left.- auspice (NextStrain/GISAID live website)What may happen in the future?In a good scenario, HCoV-19 may become a 5th coronavirus which is a “common cold”.In a bad scenario, HCoV-19 becomes a repeat of the 1918 Spanish Flu.First wave (Jan 1918) was fairly mild and killed mostly old people 60+ and kids 0–14.Mutated into a stronger version in the second wave (Oct 1918) which(1) killed lots of 15–40 yr-olds.(2) Some people who got sick in the morning, died before dinner.(3) Not as many deaths in 40–65 yr-olds & 5–14 yr-olds.“In 1918, older adults may have had partial protection caused by exposure to the 1889–1890 flu pandemic, known as the "Russian flu"As more people are infected by SARS-CoV-2, there is a larger chance of a mutation to a more deadly strain.- Spanish flu - WikipediaMy favorite Live Update sites:(1) Coronavirus Update (Live): 126,053 Cases and 4,616 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak (Worldometers) - Best worldwide site today. Slow on China numbers.(2) Coronavirus Dashboard - Conveniently shows continents separately (US states, Canadian provinces, Australian territories, Latin America - no Africa yet).Updates slower than Worldometers.(3) Tracking coronavirus: Map, data and timeline - BNO News - Sometimes better than Worldometers with severe/critical information, but not updated as often.(4) 2019–20 Wuhan coronavirus outbreak - Wikipedia - sometimes more up-to-date than Worldometers or BNO.(5) COVID19info.live (Great graphics, good color choices)(6) Johns Hopkins https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html?fbclid=IwAR2QBDnxetMDGn-txrIUenFwDHZnrOCnXQ1eCLNv1nkN4LZcevgB81gLVho#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 - old classic(7) Baidu https://voice.baidu.com/act/newpneumonia/newpneumonia - usually most up-to-date for China(8) 全国新型肺炎疫情实时动态 - 丁香园·丁香医生 (DXY)(9) ʵʱ���£�ȫ�����ͷ����������¶�̬ (newsDOTqqDOTcom/zt2020/page/feiyan.htm) QQ

There are no scientific miracles. Science is the absence of miracle. Science is about mechanisms. Where there is mechanism, there is no miracle. In a very “meta” sense, mechanisms are miraculous in and of themselves. So, the world is not any less fascinating in all its splendor.Hinduism is mainly about causal mechanics (karma siddhanta), the mechanics of how atman is united in paramatman, through a variety of yogas (bhakti, karma, and jnana). When the three come together (in yoga, or in union), they lead the atman to realize itself, merging in paramatman. The science of consciousness. This is not theory, it is the realized experience of our Sages/Rshis who achieved the result, and told the rest of us about it, and how to achieve it. Of course, there are many other siddhantas in parallel to karma siddhanta, but all of them emphasize a slightly different aspect; but in the final analysis, karma tends to dominate because of how central it is for attaining mukthi/moksha, irrespective of which school/path you are dealing with. Whether you follow bhakti marga, jnana marga, or karma marga, ultimately it can be shown that all of them reduce to karma siddhanta in one way or another. This is simply because karma ultimately is causally responsible for the atma’s existence as a jeeva. In the absence of karma, it is indistinguishably merged with paramamatma.Among contributions of Hinduism to the modern world “as you know it”, mathematics stands out as the highest contribution. Indeed, it was Hindu mathematics (number system, additions/subtractions/divisions/multiplications, algorithms, algebra, calculus, geometry, trigonometry) which brought the world out of its ignorance.Panini is the acknowledged “father” of modern computational linguistics, as his was the world’s FIRST grammar, on the basis of which all other grammars were later developed. His work directly predicts the later development of computers and programming. In fact, the binary system was pioneered by Pingala.It was Sage Agasthya’s “Agasthya Samhita” which contains the world’s FIRST description of a photovoltaic battery, including a description of Hydrogen and Oxygen, named differently. On that note, we are fairly certain that Mendeleev’s conception of the 2-dimensional periodic structure of the chemical elements was undoubtedly inspired by his forays in Samskritam. Sanskrit letters can be arranged in a 2-dimensional arrangement that perfectly explains its own periodicity in structure — and Mendeleev applied this to his study of a way to organize the chemical elements and discovered the modern Periodic Table. He even NAMED several predicted high-atomic-number elements using Sanskrit letter prefixes such as eka- … dvi- … etc. See this article: How Sanskrit Led To The Creation Of Mendeleev’s Periodic Table.And I re-quote:Kiparsky says:[T]he analogies between the two systems are striking. Just as Panini found that the phonological patterning of sounds in the language is a function of their articulatory properties, so Mendeleev found that the chemical properties of elements are a function of their atomic weights.Like Panini, Mendeleev arrived at his discovery through a search for the “grammar” of the elements (using what he called the principle of isomorphism, and looking for general formulas to generate the possible chemical compounds).Just as Panini arranged the sounds in order of increasing phonetic complexity (e.g. with the simple stops k,p… preceding the other stops, and representing all of them in expressions like kU, pU) so Mendeleev arranged the elements in order of increasing atomic weights, and called the first row (oxygen, nitrogen, carbon etc.) “typical (or representative) elements”.Just as Panini broke the phonetic parallelism of sounds when the simplicity of the system required it, e.g. putting the velar to the right of the labial in the nasal row, so Mendeleev gave priority to isomorphism over atomic weights when they conflicted, e.g. putting beryllium in the magnesium family because it patterns with it even though by atomic weight it seemed to belong with nitrogen and phosphorus. In both cases, the periodicities they discovered would later be explained by a theory of the internal structure of the elements.We certainly know that the world of quantum mechanics took substantial inspiration from fundamental Hindu “philosophical” positions on the nature of reality, as found in the Upanishads, etc. I put “’” around the word philosophical, because they were not philosophical, they were observed Truths recorded by Rshis. There was not one physicist at the turn of the century, the peers of Schroedinger, Einstein, Bohr, etc. that contributed to advanced physics that didn’t have some familiarity with Hindu philosophy, including the Upanishads, or various translations of the Vedas. What I find hilarious is that people who read about non duality speak of “Oneness”. They don’t understand that advaitam means not 2, but not 2 does not imply 1. It refers to the indeterminate quantum state that is neither 0 nor 1. Advaitam is therefore not “Oneness” and Dvaitam is not “Twoness”. Dvaitam means duality of relationship between the observer (purusha) and the observed (prakrithi). The recognition that the observer and the observed are two distinct categories of things, is dvaitam as per the Hindu shastras. Therefore, samkhya philosophy is termed as a dvaita darshana. It is a valid model of the experiential universe of the jeeva.Aside: The way the west uses these concepts of oneness twoness and what-not end up in childish mental models of how the world works. You have airy-fairy “non duality teachers” going around preaching oneness, as if oneness is an observable phenomenon. In the same breath, they start babbling about kundalini and chakras, with no idea what they are talking about. The underlying concepts are real, but they use them in very screwy ways. Their minds are immature, irrational, and full of incorrect ideas because they skipped one too many grades on their spiritual journey — going straight to advaitam without understanding the basics. Dvaitam and Advaitam are opposite sides of the same coin. If you forego rituals, preferring a more “intellectual” or “analytical” approach in the name of advaitam, you have not understood advaitam at all. The path to that indeterminate indescribable nirguna reality (advaitam) is through the reality you experience (dvaitam) — escapism is not the way!I could literally write volumes and volumes on this topic you’ve asked about. But, it is impractical. This needs a more serious effort, and in the next 20–25 years, Hindus need to publish a comprehensive multi-volume detailed encyclopedia of the Hindu contribution to science. It will happen. Afterall, we are talking about a 40,000+ year old civilization. You read that correctly.I will not however end this post on that cliffhanger, rather, I will suggest that without the Hindu practice of building altars for their yajnas, there would be no geometry. All of the geometry that is attributed to the greeks was actually developed by the Hindus and taught to the greeks who journeyed to India from greece in order to learn Hindu maths and sciences at Hindu universities. The geometry came from calculations required to construct the tools for performing homas and yajnas. The oldest texts on geometrical calculations is the sulba sutra — which details the mathematics behind construction of these yajna homa-kundas. This has been proven by mathematical historians.The oldest book on astronomy is the Surya Siddhanta (Hindu doctrine of the Sun), and contains detailed knowledge of calculations pertaining to the orbit of the planets, the sun, astronomy, etc. This book is dated prior to 14,500 BCE.There were millions of priceless books burned in the course of the many invasions that Hindus endured, and much knowledge was lost; however, the monuments containing the clues regarding the science that underpins that knowledge still stands in the form of the architecture and temples and ruins that still stand today. They were building highly precise megalithic structures comprising some extraordinary feats of architecture, science, math, precision engineering and pure art that exist on the planet. Some of the works include statues that look like they have been diamond polished. You can’t build cities, temples, and advanced irrigation systems, without some fairly complex math, science, and knowledge of engineering.New and ongoing discoveries, not receiving any publicity…There is a standing pillar in delhi that never rusts — a feat that could not be achieved even today, requiring some fairly sophisticated metallurgy. Apparently, they found a way to coat the surface of the pillar with nanoparticles that prevent oxidation of the underlying iron. The caustic polluted Delhi atmosphere could not touch the iron pillar of Delhi. The most extraordinary steel, wootz steel, responsible for building structures such as the London Bridge, were entirely manufactured in India, because no one else in the world knew how to make these materials. Hindus were the ONLY civilization to know how to extract zinc from ore, for nearly 4000 years; of course, today, everyone knows how to extract this zinc — but this process originated in Hindu metallurgical knowledge.When Vasco De Gama first “discovered” India, people leave out the part that he was “escorted” into Goan harbor by the fleet of ships of a Hindu trader operating on the shores of South Africa. Vasco de Gama was afraid to actually cross the open ocean so he stayed close to the land, and ended up stuck in Africa. There, he met two traders from India, one of whom was a Hindu merchant (Vaishya) who offered to escort him back to Goa. This is in Vasco de Gama’s own journals. The interesting fact here is that Vasco de Gama’s ship was one of the largest class of vessels among the European fleet, whether it was English, Spanish, Dutch, or whoever. Kanha’s fleet of 3 merchant ships were each 10x larger than Vasco de Gama’s galleon class ship. They surrounded his ship and escorted him all the way to the port of Goa. Hindus pioneered Ocean navigation. They pioneered advanced ship building techniques which were used in the construction of later European designs. Those advanced ships were built on Indian ports. Hindus pioneered the most accurate calendars and time keeping devices required for such navigation. We know that Europe would export the calendars from India because they were the only calendars that were accurate enough to navigate by the stars. Of course, the Europeans could not correct the calculations for the curvature of the earth, which is why they had such a hard time navigating from point A to point B, for large distances. Now, this fact is both enlightening and damning. It is enlightening for obvious reasons — it implies the advanced nature of our technology, our know how, our ingenuity, and even our position in the world. It is damning for the reason that all we had to do to avoid being colonized by the British was not show them the damn route straight to our shores. We literally escorted that bastard with 3 ships and told him how to find us. If he had not found us, we could have avoided at least some of that bloody colonial history for another century or two perhaps.One “modern” idea floating around, and popularized by David Bohm (well versed in Hinduism, by the way), is known as the “Holographic theory of the Universe”. This statement about the self-similarity or fractal nature of the Universe is expressed compactly in the Hindu statement: Yat pinde tat bramhande.I will also post here a lecture that goes into detail on Ramanujan’s mathematics…Yes, Ramanujan, who produced a prodigious volumes of mathematics, half of which we haven’t finished analyzing, some of which have led to extraordinary discoveries in modern cosmology, physics, etc. was a devotee of devi, and it was she (devi) who inspired his god-level mathematical output.Here are some video references:A simple glimpse into their mathematical genius, is in the dating system they used in every scripture ever written by any Hindu. It is the same dating system that Hindus still use in their religious and orthodox practices. So, we know exactly how to read the date and interpret it. Any Hindu shastra contains archaeo-astronomical data that has specific references to star positions, which allows us to back calculate their exact date of authorship, irrefutably, according to our current calendars.