Informational Notice Personal Income Tax 2017-01: Fill & Download for Free

With 99.3% of banned notes back as stated by central bank RBI, can we conclude that demonetisation was for nothing?No, we can't. This is going to be a long one, so, I humbly request you to kindly bare with me.(6–7 minute read. Implore you to read till the end.)Modi, on his 7th Nov speech vaguely referred to 3 target areas which he sought to remedy with Demonetization, which were-Black Money, primarily.Terror financing.Fake note menace.Black MoneyThe most common complaint against Demonetization has been the return of cash into the system. This has led some people to interpret Demonetization as some sort of a purging exercise and that the resultant money is squeaky clean.Nothing could be further from the truth.A bit about how Income Tax works and how long does collection of taxes take-These are some of the modes of collection of income tax-The most unpopular and widely hated way is through the TDS.Applicable to Self Employed Businesses and Professionals- Self Assessment Tax, Advance Tax.Other Routes- Tax Collected at Source.As you might have gathered, not all people pay taxes properly, as and when they are required to. Therefore, the Income Tax department cross checks the details submitted in the returns with other information that it gets it's hands on via various routes, inter alia, including submissions from the taxpayer himself. This procedure of ascertaining the correct tax liability is called an assessment.Assesments can be broadly divided into two parts- Summary Assessment & Scrutiny Assessment.Summary Assessment- sort of like a Preliminary Examination. Mundane Mistakes are weeded out at this stage like arthmetic errors, TDS mismatches and so on. The officials/software could either send a Notice(to request more details) or an order to complete the 'Summary'.Scrutiny Assessment- This is serious business. The officer goes through every number, every explanation, every justification in great detail. He may call for more information, summon such other people as he may think fit. At the end of this procedure, he issues an order recomputing the Income and imposing such Tax, Interest & penalty, if any.Typically, it takes close to 2 years for the abovementioned procedure to meet it's rightful conclusion, which is also the legally allowed time limit for completion(21 months to be precise).Translated into English, returns filed in the aftermath of Demonetization, the assessments would only be completed by 31.12.2018.The fun part- the taxpayer, if aggrieved by the order, may prefer an appeal with the higher authorities which could last anywhere between 1 year-5 years, depending upon whose doors the taxpayer chooses to knock.Therefore, all the post Demonetization proceedings, additions, demand orders, assessments have not even completed 50% of their tax lifecycles. Those are still cruising through stage 2 i.e. the Scrutiny Assessment.Bonus fact- the order copies of the proceedings upto the Assessment (Summary+Scrutiny) & 1st appellate authority-Commissioner of IT(Appeals)- cannot be made public. Order copies of only the second level appellate authority-ITAT- & above can be made public.{Therefore, the ones that are claiming that it was a failure would not even have the data required to arrive at such a conclusion}.Information is king in the world of any law enforcement authority. A return is just one of the many ways the tax department gets its information from. Other prominent places include, inter alia, the authority responsible for registration of sale & purchase of property, Banks & other Financial Institutions, Jewelry merchants, other law enforcement agencies, Businesses & so on. These persons are required to file an additional statement called the Annual Information Return(AIR).However, in order to bolster the existing framework of the AIR, and, enable the department to get information relating to the deposits during Demonetization, in a time bound manner, new provisions were added. Instance, this-Cash deposits during the period 9th November, 2016 to 30th December, 2016 aggregating to—(i) Rs. 12,50,000 or more, in one or more current account of a person; or(ii) Rs. 2,50,000 or more, in one or more accounts (other than a current account) of a person.(iii) Cash deposits during the period 1st of April, 2016 to 9th November, 2016 in respect of accounts that are reportable.Persons who are required to report:(i) A banking company or a cooperative bank(ii) Post Master General as referred to in clause (j) of section 2 of the Indian Post Office Act, 1898By virtue of these provisions, among others, IT department was able to get it's hands on comparative information, which is capable of being used to fix culpability since the pre Demonetization data could be used to set a benchmark to compare the post demonetization activity with.Armed with a truckload of rich information, the Government has :Identified about 18 L suspect cases where transactions could raise a stinkbeen able to bring close to ₹ 30,000 Crores under tax net by way of disclosures & seizures[1]identified 13.33 L accounts belonging to ~9 L persons, netting ₹ 2.9 L Cr, where notices have been shot off and response has been sought(Yes, scrutiny assessment)[2]unearthed over 14000 properties valuing over ₹ 1 Cr, the owners of which had not even filed Returns of Income. [3]revved up the number of search proceedings(a Raid, sort of) from 447 to 1152 in a pre & post Demonetization context.[4]ramped up the number of surveys by 300% to 12500+(sort of like a Pre-Assessment proceeding that usually leads to reopening of Prior Assessments and admission of concealed Income) [5]managed to achieve remarkable uptick in the Tax Compliance, not just in the number of people filing returns but also the Number of People paying Advance Tax, TDS & Self Assessment Taxes.managed to clock above 15–20% YoY growth rates in collection of Income Taxes. This is no mean feat.[6]managed to steadily increase the buoyancy of tax collections{Growth in Tax Collections/Growth in GDP} to ~1.7(+). Meaning, every % point growth in the GDP will realize a 1.7% growth in the net tax collections.[7] Read more about that here.TAKEAWAY-Since most accounts are still in 2nd stage and not yet complete, the process is a long time coming from being able to be judged.The orders will start going out from mid September & early October extending all the way upto December. This will get reflected in the Tax Collection data of 2018–19 & 2019–2020.So, everyone claiming that all the money in the banks is now white is either shooting from the hips or woefully ignorant about how assessments work in the context of Income Tax Act.Rest Assured, the Income Tax department isn’t stupid, and, the money that made it’s way into the Bank is not white!Second Charge against the exercise was that intermediaries were employed to get in line by the wealthy hoarders of Black Money.While there is no denying that such a method was used, but, to think that such a crude method was employed to launder close to 16L crores is plain facetious. Not to take away the fact that such crude methods are always fraught with logistical nightmares & could lead to potentially loss of all that money should the conduit turn their backs on the kingpin.An important aspect of being rich is always being somewhat less stupid. And the above method done on large scale is just plain stupid.This method could have been employed by the uneducated Slumlords & other hoodlums who have the kind of loyal manpower at their disposal, but the quantum of their collective Black Money might, at best, run into a few thousand crores.NB: These transactions are subject matter of Benami Transactions Act. If caught, such benamidar will be required to pay around north of 70% in Taxes.Also, S 115BBE was introduced to plug this hole, the gist of which is as follows-Any credit in your account or Books, the source of which you can't explain, shall be taxed at 60% and will attract a 25% flat surcharge, and education cess to the boot.In other words, if I was to deposit ₹ 100 in somebody's Bank A/c and the software picks it up (which it does a lot of time, for outliers), the Assessing Officer will shoot a notice to that person to come see him in order to explain the source of that cash. Should the account holder be unable to explain the source, the AO will pass the order demanding tax of ₹ 77.25 to be paid within 30 days.It is pertinent to note that, whether the money is still lying in the bank or not is irrelevant.And, I've not even started about the penal provisions. In addition to the above demand, there will be levied a penalty and interest.The worst criminals buckle under the IT pressure because they don't care much about putting you in the Jail, which a lot of hardened criminals seem to have gotten accustomed to, but they take away your money by employing whatever means necessary, and available under the law, so I don't imagine the poor conduit not blurting out the name of the real beneficial owner of that money.However, a few very efficient laundering schemes that have been extensively used in the past and how have they been bucked in the recent pastUsing Slumfolk to launder unaccounted cash: Companies followed this smart idea of using less fortunate people with no tax history to launder money.The M.O- The errant companies usually gathered a bunch of people, typically slum-dwellers and got their basic KYC done. Then, probably with the help of an employee of the Bank, Companies opened large number of Bank Accounts.Thereafter, the companies deposited ~ ₹ 2.5 L in the bank accounts, and, using the same money applied for the shares in their own company.At this point, the Company is sitting atop (₹ 2.5L * No of Inidividuals) of laundered cash. The process however is not yet complete.The companies then makes fake calls for further deposits from the applicants for shares, who do not pay up leading the company to forfeit the application money under the pretext of non payment of calls.Following the above steps, the companies laundered money bucking the legal framework.Bonus: The forfeited money was not taxable under Income Tax(The difference between capital expenditures and revenue expenditures).The Income Tax officers could only stand watch since persons making deposits earned less than 2.5L. The Company could not be compelled to give details of the persons making the deposit( This was due to a court ruling).Post Demonetization:Cash credits.68. Where any sum is found credited in the books of an assessee maintained for any previous year, and the assessee offers no explanation about the nature and source thereof or the explanation offered by him is not, in the opinion of the Assessing Officer, satisfactory, the sum so credited may be charged to income-tax as the income of the assessee of that previous year :Provided that where the assessee is a company (not being a company in which the public are substantially interested), and the sum so credited consists of share application money, share capital, share premium or any such amount by whatever name called, any explanation offered by such assessee-company shall be deemed to be not satisfactory, unless—(a) the person, being a resident in whose name such credit is recorded in the books of such company also offers an explanation about the nature and source of such sum so credited; and(b) such explanation in the opinion of the Assessing Officer aforesaid has been found to be satisfactoryThat scam has now been laid to rest!Method 2: Shell Companies & Value InflationAnother very rampantly used method. Letterbox companies would be floated, typically in Mumbai, Delhi & Kolkata(most prominent). Shares would be bought for a very nominal sum.Then, the books would be fudged with bogus transactions thereby strengthening the financial position on paper. Cash would be laundered and deposited into the Bank Accounts. Parallelly, the owners & their representatives would also indulge in fictitious Buy/Sell transactions in shares of company, thereby, perking the value of the share up with every transaction. This way, one step at a time, a lot of cash would be laundered gradually over a period of 3–5 years typically. Then, using the long term capital gains exemption, which was available hitherto, pocket all of the laundered money without paying a penny in Income Taxes. (The long term capital gains exemption is also done away with w.e.f 01/04/2018.)Post Demonetization:With the introduction of GST, cooking books has become much more difficult than it already was due to the stringent invoice rules under which issuing invoice with value upwards of ₹ 50K/transaction has been made mandatory. Coupled with the mandatory requirement of filing invoice wise details of sales & purchases has dealt a body blow to easy fudging of books. This part has hit a lot of unruly traders in India and had to face stiff resistance before its promulgation.Also, a Special Task Force under the joint chairmanship of the Secretaries of the Ministry of Corporate Affairs & the Ministry of Finance was constituted in order to tackle the shell company problem. And, the Government and it’s agencies have:Struck off 2.25 L companies off the register of companies.[8] [9]Disqualified over 3 L directors for not failing to comply with the requirements of the Companies Act, 2013[10]Invoked the Serious Fraud Investigation Office to look into the matters of the companies[11]made it mandatory to disclose the amount of cash deposited during Demonetization on their Balance Sheet & Profit & Loss Accounts[12]Put out a list of companies you should be wary of dealing with[13] check for companies in your area using the link.Put out a list of Directors who are disqualified from holding Directorships[14]- You can check the names of the Directors from your area using the given link.Outlawed having more than 2 layers in their Corporate Structure for the purpose of Investment in order to curb obscure corporate structures.[15]Constituted a super regulatory-NFRA- authority to keep the CA, CS, CWA in check.via the Enforcement Directorate, conducted raids across the country at over 110 locations spanning all major metro cities. Benami Transactions will be invoked on whoever is found guilty.[16]Method 3: Treaty ShoppingAnother time tested way was to route the money out of India by Hawala networks, and then bring the money back into India via shell companies registered in Tax Havens such as Mauritius, Cyprus and some times, Singapore. The exemption from payment of any tax in India was the chief allure of the famed Mauritius route. However, the Mauritius route was sealed in May of 2016. Other routes also followed suit behind it.Sealing of these tax-free routes has probably had an effect on the levels of deposits in the Swiss Banks.[17] [18]2. Terror FinancingI’m no expert on issues concerning national security, so I would refrain from making long commentaries on the efficacy of the exercise.However, I would like to quote a few news pieces in order to drive home a point that demonetization indeed had a good effect on Terror Financing as well.A record number of over 276 maoists had surrendered post Demonetization. This was unprecedented.[19] [20] (Don’t go by the headlines for link no. 20. That’s the Indian Media for you)The Insurgency in NE India & Maoists were set back by ₹ 800 Crores due to Demonetization [21]Kashmiri Militants- were in a real scramble. They had to resort to robbing ATMs, Banks and also stealing guns because, there’s no Azaadi without the money [22]90% decrease in stone pelting incidents: DGP, J & K.[23]NIA got it’s hands on incriminating material leading to several raids across Delhi-NCR and the epicenter of Terror itself-Srinagar, J & K. Led to the busting of Hawala networks which contributed to the above decrease and led to arrests of several people connected with the Money trail.[24]Normally, this is the Hurriyat time of the year, when it issues a calendar for protest dates, and detailed SOPs. Coincidentally, this is also the time of the year when Kashmir gets a lot of tourist footfall. Therefore, Hurriyat’s M.O is to choke the population of the cashflow and income, in order to get them to revolt and do nasty things destroying their collective futures. However, we have not heard a lot of untoward incidents this & the previous years as compared to the 2016 year.3. Counterfeit Currency, High Value NotesCounterfeit notes have shown a marked decline from being pegged at 7.62 L pieces in pre-Demo days to 5.21 L pieces in the post demo phase. That’s a neat ~32% gain.[25]#Introduction of a Higher Value currencyThis is another pet peeve of the critics of the demonetization. This is a legitimate concern since it makes hoarding black money twice as easy as it was with ₹ 1000 notes.However, the post Demonetization phase is seeing a steady decline in the High Denomination Notes as a % of Total Notes in circulation.The pre demonetization High Denomination Notes to Total Notes stood at 86.4%, while, the post Demonetization one stands firm at 80.4%.[26]#The Infamous ₹ 2000 noteThe supply of ₹ 500 is being beefed up by the month. ₹ 500 now stands at double the demonetization levels at 42+ %.[27] [28]4. But Black Money doesn’t exist in the physical form. It exists in the form of Real Estate, Jewelry etc.This claim is a valid one. However, artificial inflation can be kept up only if the cash is in steady supply. But, post demonetization, the system was in a state of supply shock due to which the realty developers undersold their assets leading to the fall in prices of various assets. Perhaps, Real Estate was the hardest hit sectors.This is the reason why property prices fell after demonetization.[29]Acclaimed property consultants and researchers claimed that price of properties could fall by as much as 30% due to Demonetization.[30]Demonetization also hit the secondary market pretty bad leading to cheaper properties thereby making lives easier for the homebuyers.[31]Thereafter, the government passed the Real Estate (Regulation & Development) Act, which has made further strides in formalizing the sector & protecting the Buyer. Under RERA, the builder is required to deposit 70% of the booking money in an escrow account and issue a receipt to the Buyer. This gives an idea of the Revenues of the Builder by simple extrapolation.A few more hits Demonetization managed:Demonetization led to formalization of savingsIn and of itself, this is not the mindblowing news you want to hear, however, put in perspective, this is a great inflection point in the economic future of India.The Equity funds saw a steady flow of ₹ 2.86 L crores as against ₹ 1.35 L crores seen in the previous year.[32] The above was also achieved because of the slash in the Interest Rates on fixed deposits & Savings Bank account.The gross Asset under Management reached ₹ 21.41 L crores, an all time high, and the equity AUM reached upwards of ₹ 6.5 L Crores.The money in these funds, is then invested in the Public Offerings floated by companies in order to finance their new project requirements. This money is the fuel that propels the economic growth.Demonetization & Interest RatesAwash with funds, the Banks lowered lending rates on fresh loans, thereby making the cost of doing Business cheaper.The RBI had, during 2014–16, reduced 1.75% in repo rates, however, that had translated in only 0.5 % reduction in lending rates.Post demonetization, a mere reduction of 0.25% in repo rates, has resulted in the same effect of reduction of 0.5% in lending rates.[33]If you have stayed on till here, can only mean either of the two things- You’re one big fan of it, or, a vehement critic. I hope, I have been able to do justice to the sensibilities of both types of people, since I’ve based the entire answer on facts, and not opinions.They say, it ain’t over till the fat lady sings, and, I can vouch that she hasn’t sung, yet.In my humble opinion, it would be extremely wrong to proclaim it was all for nothing. The facts are there for you to see. I hope you had a good time reading.Footnotes[1] Cash deposits of ₹ 2.89 lakh crore post demonetisation under I-T dept. radar[2] Cash deposits of ₹ 2.89 lakh crore post demonetisation under I-T dept. radar[3] Cash deposits of ₹ 2.89 lakh crore post demonetisation under I-T dept. radar[4] Cash deposits of ₹ 2.89 lakh crore post demonetisation under I-T dept. radar[5] Cash deposits of ₹ 2.89 lakh crore post demonetisation under I-T dept. radar[6] What demonetisation did to tax collections[7] What demonetisation did to tax collections[8] Ministry of Corporate Affairs (MOCA) identifies more than one lakh directors of shell companies for disqualification[9] Govt cancelled 2.24 lakh suspected shell companies post demonetisation, disqualified 3.09 lakh directors - Firstpost[10] Govt cancelled 2.24 lakh suspected shell companies post demonetisation, disqualified 3.09 lakh directors - Firstpost[11] http://www.mca.gov.in/Ministry/pdf/Commencementnotification_25082017.pdf[12] http://www.mca.gov.in/Ministry/pdf/AmendmentinScheduleIII_Notification31032017.pdf[13] Ministry Of Corporate Affairs[14] List of Disqualified Directors u/s 164 (2)(a)[15] http://www.mca.gov.in/Ministry/pdf/CompaniesRestrictionOnNumberofLayersRule_22092017.pdf[16] How Modi’s crackdown on shell companies has waged war on black money post demonetisation[17] Deposits by Indians in Swiss bank accounts down 80% during NDA tenure: Govt[18] Money held by Indians in Swiss banks fell by 34.5% in 2017[19] Maoists worst hit by Demonetisation - The Sunday Guardian Live[20] Maoist papers show how note ban didn’t hurt them[21] Demonetization has hit terror funding[22] Jammu and Kashmir bank robberies reflect just how hard militants were hit by demonetisation - Firstpost[23] 90% dip in stone-pelting incidents in Kashmir in 2017: J&K DGP - Times of India[24] Hurriyat, hawala raids are a body blow to terror funding network in Kashmir[25] Cut the politics, D-Street says cash ban was worth it & why![26] Cut the politics, D-Street says cash ban was worth it & why![27] Reserve Bank of India[28] Cut the politics, D-Street says cash ban was worth it & why![29] http://Property prices fell after note ban, likely to go down further, says economic survey (https://www.hindustantimes.com/real-estate/property-prices-fell-after-note-ban-likely-to-go-down-further-says-economic-survey/story-wW8qCrwfnRlaYfV5JER2CL.html)[30] Impact of Demonetisation[31] http://Demonetisation hits secondary market: Will property become cheaper now? (https://m.economictimes.com/markets/stocks/news/demonetisation-hits-secondary-market-will-property-become-cheaper-now/amp_articleshow/55537864.cms)[32] http://Inflows in equity mutual funds surge to Rs 2.86 lakh crore after note ban (https://m.economictimes.com/mf/mf-news/inflows-in-equity-mutual-funds-surge-to-rs-2-86-lakh-crore-after-note-ban/amp_articleshow/61638985.cms)[33] The impact of demonetisation on interest rates

Hello,A lot of modi haters are blindly bashing Narendra modi on this issue and especially by propogating lies about the 15 lakh ruppes in every bank account. Narendra modi never ever said that he would deposit.Here is the video that current central government is already taking steps to bring the black money back to our country. But the process is very complex and is not a cake walk especially when a very significant amount of percentage of black money in the world is deposited by Indians. Bringing back India’s black money would significantly harm the business of banks who assist in accumaliating and protecting black money.Here is the video of what prime minister Narendra modi is doing to bring back black money.And considering the matter of Black money it is completely wrong to say that current government has done nothing to curb it.The Government has taken several measures to effectively control and curb the prevalence of parallel economy and unaccounted transactions. Major steps in this regard constitute:-1. Enactment of the Black Money (Undisclosed Foreign Income and Assets) and Imposition of Tax Act, 2015 w.e.f. 01/07/2015 to more effectively tackle the cases involving black money stashed abroad.2. Enactment of the Benami Transactions (Prohibition) Amendment Act, 2016 w.e.f. 01/11/2016 to effectively deal with domestic black money cases.3. Constitution of the Special Investigation Team (SIT) on Black Money in May, 2014 under Chairmanship and Vice-Chairmanship of two former Judges of Hon'ble Supreme Court. The SIT has so far submitted 6 reports to Hon'ble Supreme Court4. Constitution of Multi-Agency Group (MAG) for coordinated and effective investigation in 'Panama paper leaks' cases and Paradise Leaks cases.5. Task Force (TF) on Shell Companies constituted under the joint chairmanship of Revenue Secretary and Secretary (Ministry of Corporate Affairs) in February, 2017. The task force has met 6 times so far.6. Various other anti-evasive legislative measures taken:6.1 Tracking & curbing cash transactions and strengthening third party reporting mechanism: Quoting of PAN made mandatory for sale or purchase of any goods/services above Rs. 2 Lakh.6.2 Post-demonetization, significant measures:(i) Quoting of PAN made mandatory for all cash deposits above Rs. 50,000 and aggregating to more than Rs. 2.5 lakh for the period from 9 November to 31 December, 2016.(ii) Further, Rule 114E of the Income Tax Rules, 1962 was amended to mandate the prescribed reporting entities to report all cash deposits above Rs. 2.5 Lakhs in savings accounts and Rs. 12.5 Lakhs in current account during the above period.(iii) Restriction on cash transaction of Rs. 2 lakh or more (Section 269ST of I. T. Act), no deduction under section 80G if cash donation exceeds Rs. 2000 w.e.f. 01.04.2018, restriction on donations of Rs.2000/- or more to political parties otherwise than by a bank account or through electoral bonds.(iv) Deeming fair market value as full value of consideration for computation of capital gains in case of transfer of shares other than quoted shares.(v) Mandating that a person who has an account (other than a time deposit and a Basic Saving Bank Deposit Account) maintained with a banking company or a cooperative bank shall furnish his PAN or Form No. 60 etc.(vi) Linking of Aadhar with PAN has been made mandatory for filing Income Tax Returns and for applying for new PAN from 1st July 2017.7. International Cooperation:(i) Proactively engaging with foreign governments to enhance the exchange of information (EoI) under tax treaties, India has tax treaties with 148 foreign jurisdictions as on 30.06.2017(ii) India joined a group of 48 countries as early adopters to new global standards for automatically exchanging information from 2017(iii) India-Mauritius and India-Singapore tax treaties amended to adopt source based taxation of capital gains with a view to help curb tax evasion and tax avoidance.8. Interventions in regulatory framework by the CBDT:8.1 Integration of PAN and TAN with MCA Portal:e-PAN Card for Company Applicants issued within 1 day (95% within 4 hrs) from March, 20178.2 MoU for exchange of information signed between Central Board of Direct Taxes and Ministry of Corporate Affairs.9.Actions in the context of demonetization: The Income-tax Department adopted a multi-pronged approach to detect and seize undisclosed assets after the announcement of the demonetization scheme on 8 November, 2016. This included collection of high quality intelligence, identification and prioritization of high risk cases, creating deterrence while ensuring professionalism and integrity in investigations. Significant steps taken in this regard are:-9.1 Enforcement actions:i. The Income Tax Department conducted searches in 900 groups during November 2016 to March, 2017 leading to seizure of assets of Rs.900 crore, including cash of Rs. 636 crore, and admission of undisclosed income of Rs. 7,961 croresii. During the same period, 8,239 surveys were conducted leading to detection of undisclosed income of Rs.6,745 crore9.2. Operation Clean Money initiated by the Income Tax Department on 31st January 2017:i. 17.73 lakhs suspicious cases (No. of PANs) identified involving Rs. 3.68 lakh crore in 23.22 lakh bank accountsii. Responses of 11.18 lakh persons for 16.92 lakh bank accounts taken onlineiii. Further, a total of 20,572 Income Tax Returns (ITRs) have been selected for scrutiny under Computer Assisted Scrutiny System (CASS) - 2017 in Cycle-2. Moreover, 1,16,262 notices under section 142(1) of the Income Tax Act are being issued to non-filers who deposited Rs 25 lakh or more in cash during demonetization but failed to file their return of income by the due date.9.3. Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Yojana, 2016 (PMGKY)i. The Taxation Laws (Second Amendment) Act, 2016 was enacted, which enabled levy of tax at a higher rate on the undisclosed income under which a person could declare his undisclosed cash by paying tax, surcharge & penalty totaling to 50% of the undisclosed income. Besides, he would have to keep 25% of the undisclosed income in Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Deposit Scheme, interest free for 4 years.ii. 21000 persons disclosed Rs. 4,900 crore under the Prime Minister Garib Kalyan Yojana (PMGKY) on which Rs. 2,451 crore was collected as tax.10. The Income Declaration Scheme, 2016: 71,726 declarations declaring undisclosed income of Rs.67,382 crore were made under the schemeSource:Business standardResult of these stepsBlack money haul: Rs 65,250 crore disclosed through Income Declaration SchemeThese are enough points to prove the commitment of the current government to fulfill their promises on Black money.Thanks

The bubble will burst primarily by the external factors (iron curtain in China, financial crisis, US economy transformation/collapse). All intra Canadian factors such as Interest rates, population growth, tax policies will be secondary. Taking into account that Canada is heavily dependent on the USA and the global crisis will affect everyone, it might be an acceptable risk to explore what is going on on Canadian RE market.To control the bubble, make the second house purchase very hard to make to prevent speculation, give more permits for the new houses to be build, specifically high dense ones (townhomes) to allow the first time buyers to enter the market. Do not penalize foreign buyers because it will shock the industry killing the last one left in Ontario.I decided to run the answer as a blog updating it every few weeks with new observations.First entry 17/01/2017: There might be a negative scenario too. China limited the cash flow for the residents to 50K/year. A half of the overseas buyers last year were buyers from the China’s middle class. Three days ago Bloomberg posted the data reflecting the fact: first time since Aug 2015 the money flow for China became positive. That means the CN government measures are affecting the runaway capital. Way less money left China in January. W/o such investors there is no way to maintain the growth on the global real estate market counting only on local speculators. The pyramid is built, ppl need to keep selling houses to move to the new ones. Who would be the buyer of that power in lack of overseas interest? By affordability Toronto is just behind few cities in the world, the cap is not too far. Australia, which is 2 years ahead of Canada in real estate bubble, shows first signs of Chinese buyers pulling the plug. Anyway, I believe, once the news are right there will be 3–4 months at least of the plato prices with falling volumes before the slide down. The market has inertia. The darkest article is here: China's capital controls are working, and that's bursting the global real-estate bubbleFrom the other perspective RMB is falling since 2015 and the Chinese currency devaluation must, have to force population to protect their assets by converting them to USD and purchasing real estate abroad. China’s Capital Flight. It may take some time to figure out how to move funds (via blockchain currencies etc - see here http://www.khmertimeskh.com/news/34723/a-quiet-new-year-for-chinese-investors-/), but sooner than later the new money will arrive. A temporary cooldown of the prices would serve a healthy break before the new growth. Chinese Yuan Devaluation Looks Like a Long ShotСhinese information is in the beginning of January PBC audited Chinese payment systems policies and operators. In parallel 3 biggest bitcoin providers were under investigation. As a result there were about 5 MILLION suspicious accounts identified and shut down. Chinese soccer market Why Chinese clubs are breaking transfer records – and why players are wise to go is booming as, I think, the art one as well. Any possible way to export assets is now being enabledUpdate 01/02/17: The news are there are only 5% non-residents on the Toronto RE market. https://www.thestar.com/business/2017/01/31/toronto-house-prices-not-fuelled-by-foreign-funds-treb.html#pt0-474950 And the majority of the purchases is done by newcomers. I have no problem with this information if will find an answer why these so called “newcomers” are buying exclusively expensive houses 1.5M+. I see 11 around .9M townhouses for sale at Buthurst&Elgin Mills - no sales. And 2 km south a house built for 1.1M being sold for 2.6M. Something is not clear here.Update 03/02/17: TREB published very promising data for January Sales in GTA: 5,188 residential transactions were recorded during the first month of 2017, an 11.8% increase over the 4,640 sales reported in January 2016. Most notably, average selling prices increased by 22.3% year-over-year, with the new average home price rising to $770,745. TREB Releases January 2017 Real Estate Market FiguresBitcoin passed 1000USD mark on the Thursday night. It looks like people figured out how to bypass new CN government restrictions only 4 weeks later.Update 12/02/17: Would the GTA population growth be a vehicle to drive prices up? The most recent Census numbers telling it is “probably not”. Here is a quite blindsided article about the trend and the bubble burst prophesy: Population growth isn't driving Toronto house prices. So what is? - Macleans.ca I do believe that the main driver for the real estate prices is the capital running away from China, Iran and the most relaxed immigration policy in the world. Especially for business and investors.Update 17/02/17: It seems to be quite obvious the RE market driven by the international capital will cause steep diversity in house prices across Canada. The Canadian Real Estate Association reported Wednesday that sales were down by 1.3 per cent during the month, to the second-lowest monthly level since the fall of 2015 states CREA End of the run? Average house price up just 0.2% across Canada in January. Of course, it is not the end of run and comments by “experts” are not much informative and sometimes against the common sense. The stats are another proof how irrelevant the domestic factors comparing to the capital run to Canada. Worth to mention the China fiscal rules slowered the new buyers. But bitcoin is worth 1050 USD as of today. The flow is or will be restored soon.Update 25/02/17: China is actively looking for the government controlled replacement of bitcoin to shut the one down: China Is Developing its Own Digital Currency. Once happened it will be quite negative to the overseas RE markets. Meanwhile bitcoin hit the record $1200 value.Update 27/02/17: An interesting article from US. Who is driving the RE market? It looks like it is driven not by the first home buyers or large investors, but by small investors (1–2 houses) operating on low margin in the buy-to-rent schema: “In 2009, according to this metric, 28% of all home purchases were investor-owned properties. In 2010, it rose to 30%. In 2011, 32%. Then as big investors pulled out, it fell back to 30%. But by 2015, small investors arrived in large numbers, and by 2016, investor purchases jumped to 37%, an all-time high”.Update 06/03/2017: Toronto's house prices hit another record high in February, with the average selling price for a detached home hitting $1.57 million, an increase of 29.8 per cent in one year. What Toronto's Crazy House Prices Will Buy You Across Canada BoM is whining about “possible correction sometimes in the future”. The next update will be about ON debt and how to deal with it in this “future” and how it affects the RE market.Bitcoin prices crashed overnight - down over $120 in a few short hours - following Bloomberg headlines citing China officials saying that Bitcoin regulation is not temporary. Bitcoin Crashes Back Below Gold On China Chatter As a reminder, a lot of this most recent run-up has been catalyzed on hope of a positive ruling by the SEC with regard the approval of Bitcoin ETFs - the ruling is due on Saturday. ETF approval will trigger a bitcoin strong buy by new ETFs on the market.Update 07/03/2017: The PBC measures to halt the outbound cash flow in Dec-Jan gave some results. I still believe, it is just a dead cat bounce as fundamentals still points to the CN capital run is in place. Growth of reserves would give more money to run.Among the factors cited for the rebound in the world's biggest FX reserve holdings are stronger economic growth, stricter capital controls and a stabilizing yuan. China's reserves have shrunk by $1 trillion from a peak of $4 trillion in 2014 as Beijing has struggled to slow yuan depreciation. Following the positive data, the offshore yuan extended gains to rise as much as 0.17%, although it has since given up all gains and was little changed at 6.8975. With pressure on reserves easing in recent months, the onshore yuan has advanced 0.7% this year amid a decline in the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index. China Reserves Post First Gain Since June Amid Capital CurbsUpdate 13/03/2017: More taxes! This is what Canada needs. It will slow down the prices, but wont stop it. “The report, titled "In High Demand" and released Monday by Ryerson University's City Building Institute, favours a tax on foreign buyers -- similar to the one introduced in Vancouver last summer -- but suggests it should be implemented in addition to a "progressive surtax" on expensive homes owned by people who aren't paying income tax, including people with foreign capital.” Foreign buyer tax alone won't fix Toronto housing crisis: reportUpdate 17/03/2017: Bad news, we may hope there will be another way for the capital to run. Chinese regulators are circulating new guidelines that, if enacted, would require exchanges to verify the identity of clients and adhere to banking regulations. China Bitcoin Rules Would Require Exchanges to Verify Clients’ IdentityA New York startup called Chainalysis estimated that roughly $2 billion of bitcoin moved out of China in 2016.Update 22/03/2017: It looks like there is no federal action to take in 2017. Just data collection.Soaring home prices in some of Canada’s biggest cities have prompted calls for further government intervention. The budget promises to give Statistics Canada almost $40-million over five years, and $6.6-million per year after that, to develop and implement a Housing Statistics Framework. The nationwide database of all properties in Canada would provide up-to-date information on purchases and sales, including the degree of foreign ownership, and information about demographics and financing. Statistics Canada is expected to start publishing initial data in the fall of this year. 2017 federal budget highlights: 10 things you need to knowUS Data: Existing homes price down, new homes price up. Can be a bubble attribute or someone (marketmaker) targets only new houses. After a long thought the first option looks more realistic.Update 26/03/2017: Having an interesting information how the price for a house in Toronto suburb was pushed up to 1.9M from 1.4M. There is a tactic to not put the house on sale on MLS (sic!). The new sale info spreads across realtors and finally reaches the Chinese real estate boards. Then the open house is scheduled (still no MLS) with a notice the next day such house goes to MLS right after the non-MLS bid round. In this particular case a family flew for a week to bid and won the house offering 1.94M.Update 27/03/2017: Home Sales by Price Range in Feb 2017Still quite short in listings in Feb 2017:Toronto Real Estate Market Statistics by Randi EmmottUpdate 05/04/2017: Builders here are also actively selling overseasUpdate 06/04/2017: After the March RE market stats publishing TREB Releases March 2017 Real Estate Market Figures, the government reaction is quite quick: Canada’s finance minister has requested a meeting with Mayor John Tory and Ontario Finance Minister Charles Sousa to address the “growing concern” about affordable housing in the Greater Toronto Area. “A combination of low interest rates and rising home prices has encouraged some Canadians to take on high levels of debt to get into the housing market, making them more susceptible to changing economic conditions,” Morneau wrote. Morneau requests meeting with Tory, Sousa to address housing affordability in GTA Let’s see what they can offer: first of all the market has been destabilized already, prices are too high and the affordability of the houses in GTA is not the case for the new buyers. Second, there are few possible measures to apply to slo down the bubble: rise interest rates (in this case the Bank of Canada should be involved - not the case), introduce more taxes for house flippers (possible), introduce taxes similar to the one in BC. The problem with all these measures is cooling the construction industry, the only one keeping the Ontario budget afloat. What would they offer in exchange? Buy Ontario bonds by Canadian government? More funding for infrastructure projects? It would all require the federal budget changes. There is also a possibility to extend the construction expansion and new permits to provide enough houses for the demand. But this cycle takes 2 years to influence a market. The prices will be too high and market crash will be even severe. I guess they will come with more taxes for flippers which market of course will quickly incorporate into the flip schema. I think, the right way to slowly put things into order is to make very hard to get the mortgage on the second house in combination of severe taxes on the flip sales including assignments. IMO it will stop speculation pressure and calm down the market.Update 10/04/2017: Misleading signals from China's capital flight into Canadian homes appears to have sparked a panic-building spree among homebuilders. Canadian housing starts surged in March, to the highest annualized level since 2007, driven by higher multiple unit construction.Update 19/04/2017: While the RE market is waiting for the Ontario budget to be published, CP24 suggested five measures to cool the prices. They actually make sense. Five measures Ontario could put in place to try to cool the GTA housing marketForeign buyers tax (low chance IMO)"Non-resident speculation tax" (also low)Speculation or flipping tax (good idea, but still too heavy to apply w/o impact analysis)Progressive property surtax (a killer for everyone)Vacant homes tax (high chance)Update 20/04/2017: This the most useless measure to take among five from above IMO. The Canadian Press has learned the Ontario to place 15 per cent tax on non-resident foreign buyers to cool housing market as part of a much-anticipated package of housing measures to be unveiled today, aimed at cooling a red-hot market. The rest are just “good intentions” 'We know we have a problem': Ontario introduces measures to curb high rents, home prices.Update 26/04/2017: Canada’s biggest non-bank mortgage lender just collapsed. Lets see if anyone will try to save it. Home Capital Slumps as New Loan Flags ‘Existential Crisis’Update 11/05/2017: While market is standing still, here are bad news for Canadian economy: 75 charts every Canadian should watch in 2017 - Macleans.caUpdate 12/05/2017: Prices in GTA made a dip in April. No surprises.http://cb1.so/a/slqi45Update 15/05/2017: Fixed mortgage rates went down. Fixed vs. Variable. The Gap Narrows | | RateSpy.comEveryday rates in Ontario. Mortgage Brokers & Mortgage Rates OntarioScared by Ont gov new measures home owners failing to catch the market. Lots of new listings with sales down by 70% In April.Canadian home sales cool in April; new listings spike There will be a good chance to buy low for the next two-three months for sure.Update 23/05/2017: A nice and inspiring article from cbcnews: Fourteen per cent of respondents to Manulife's survey said they wouldn't be able to withstand any increase in their monthly payments, while 38 per cent of those polled said they could withstand a payment hike of between one and five per cent before having difficulty. An additional 20 per cent said they could stomach a hike of between six and 10 per cent before feeling the pinch.Add it all up, and that means 72 per cent of homeowners polled couldn't withstand a hike of just 10 per cent from their current record lows. Manulife survey finds 72% of homeowners couldn't handle a 10% hike to their mortgage paymentUpdate 31/05/2017: IMF warns of ‘significant’ risks from Canada’s housing market :“Credit ratings of Canada’s six largest banks were lowered recently, reflecting concern that high household debt and the rapid appreciation of house prices could weaken asset quality in the future,” the IMF stated.On another note:There is enough historical data to forecast what would be the possible scenarios for the GTA RE market. First buyers pulled back in April to evaluate the Ontario gov. changes as they are not much favorable to them. Then homeowners willing to cash out their homes at max price realizing it is probably it and put 3x more houses on sale on market. Sure such situation triggered buyers to do nothing even more. Ergo we have (see updates from above) lots of listings and quite few sales. This is the today's status. Now the market goes into summer having low sales traditionally. What is next? More sellers w and w/o need to sell will show up on market (just finishing their houses renos) and others will pull from the market as it is hopeless. In September the truth will reveal: can these prices sustain w/o scalpers and foreign buyers if they are gone. Sellers which bought new house or "investment" properties will have to sell and push the price down. If BOC will increase the interest rate (as hinted on the last week), then it will definitely crash the market to -25% approximately. If there are buyers still willing to buy in Toronto, then we will see the Vancouver last year scenario - not a steep growth. I do not see the scenario for an exponential growth at this time, unless CAD value will be 1.6 to USD.Update 21/08/2017: Once the dust set after the April changes in Ontario it is time to estimate the impact: Ontario Financial Watchdog Starts Planning For Real Estate Declines | Better Dwelling Obviously, the Ontario government attempt to make money on real estate taxes made the opposite effect:Personal Income TaxA decline in housing prices will impact the job market, and that means less income tax revenues. In a low-impact scenario, $590 million in revenue would be lost by 2020, a 0.4% decline. A medium impact decline would cause $750 million in lost revenue over the same time, a 0.5% decline. A high impact decline in housing, would remove an estimated $1.11 billion in revenue, about 0.8%.Corporate TaxCorporate taxes would suffer the least. A low impact scenario would see a $450 million decline in revenue by 2020, a 1.1% decline. A medium impact scenario would estimates a $560 million decline, a 1.4% drop. A high impact scenario would see $810 million in revenue lost, a 2% decline. While this is the least impacted area, these numbers are far from insignificant.HST RevenuesHarmonized Sales Tax (HST) revenues will drop, mostly due to a decline in disposable income. A low impact scenarios would see a $1.640 billion decline by 2020, a drop of 1.9%. A medium impact scenario would see $2.24 billion decline, a 2.5% drop over the same period. A high impact scenario would see HST revenues drop by 3.7%, diverting a massive $3.54 billion in HST revenues.Land Transfer TaxA declining property market would impact sales, which will impact Land Transfer Tax revenue. Low impact scenario would see an estimated decline of $1.18 billion in revenue by 2020, a 13.6% decline. A medium impact scenario is estimated to be a $2.24 billion decline, which works out to a 17% drop. A high impact scenario would be a loss of $2.130 billion in revenue, which is a 24.6% decline.Update 01–22–2018You Heard That Jobs Increased 79,000 (Wow!)Let’s go through the jobs reported in December from StatsCan, which is the bullish report most of you heard. StatsCan reported a seasonally adjusted increase of 79,000 jobs in December. This brings their estimate of the total number of employed individuals to 18,648,000. Unemployment also declined 0.2 points, down to 5.7%. It’s a really good report, and it spread confidence through the economy. It also influenced the Bank of Canada’s decision to raise interest rates. But here’s the thing…However, Unadjusted, Canada Lost 6,700 Jobs In DecemberUsing the unadjusted data, gives you a quicker read on the economy. Unadjusted, Canada lost 6,700 jobs in December. This means there were actually 6,700 less people working that month. That brings the unadjusted estimate of total employment to 18,560,400. That’s a total of 87,600 less people working, than in the “adjusted” data.Toronto Detached Real Estate Inventory Rises Over 230%Toronto’s detached real estate is seeing prices drop for a 7th month in a row, as sales continue to decline, and inventory soars.Complicating the decline of sales is an increase in inventory. TREB reported 3,046 new detached listings in December, a 75% increase compared to last year. The City of Toronto did slightly better, with 670 new detached listings, a 61% increase. The substantial rise in detached listings, pushed total inventory higher.Active listings, a.k.a. listings still available at month end, rose closer to historic levels. TREB reported 7,508 active detached listings, a 237% increase from last year. The City of Toronto had 1,467 of those detached listings, a 200% increase compared to last year.The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) reported a record number of sales in December. CREA posted 45,976 sales in December, a 5.74% increase from the year before. The exact reason for the spike is unclear, but agents have been claiming buyers were trying to get in before the B-20 regulations go into effect. Buyers apparently rushed to buy before the maximum amount Canadians can borrow from regulated banks took a sharp decline.