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What are some possible reasons for Arvind Kejriwal's resignation as Chief Minister?
Arvind Kejriwal resigned because he engineered the situation so as to facilitate his resignation.Brace yourselves, this is a long answer. If you’d rather skip all the talk about their short lived term, please scroll down to the bolded “What did AAP do in 49 days?”I’ll lay out here the facts, hopefully without bias, and provide my comments as well, which will be biased. For all purposes, I will use ‘AAP’ and ‘Kejriwal’ interchangeably. Facts are in regular text and my comments are in italics.I’ll start with the manifesto. This consists of the promises they’ve made before coming into power, to be executed when they come into power.Aam Aadmi Party’s manifesto can be found here: Page on media2.intoday.in and File Shared from BoxThe main objectives outlined in this manifesto are:Delhi Jan Lokpal bill that would be passed within 15 days of coming into power. (Lokayukta would be modeled along this line, and all ministers and MLAs would come under its purview. Whistleblowers to be given protection)Devolving power directly to people. Introduction of Swaraj Bill. (Power to Mohalla Sabhas, approximately 3000 new Mohalla Sabhas)Full statehood to Delhi. (Police to be under govt’s control)Cutting electricity bills by half. (Audit distribution companies, independent agencies to check meters, withdraw cases against those who participated in civil disobedience earlier with AAP, Discoms brought under RTI)Clean water in every home, cited as the party’s first priority. (Tanker mafia, installing water meters, use of Munak canal, provide water to unauthorized slums, free water to families that use 700l, rainwater harvesting, water recycling.)Building sewage systems and 2,00,000 community toilets. (Sewage meters, recycling water)Waste management. (Littering to be fined, plastic bags to be banned, segregation of waste)High quality education, with building at least 500 new schools. (Teachers appointed at all vacant posts, regulate fees in private schools/colleges, introduce child-friendly education system)Improving public healthcare, with a special task force getting to work on Dengue cases currently in Delhi. (Fill all vacant doctor and nurse posts, complete half built hospitals, controlling pollution)Increased security. (Citizen’s Security Force that would install lighting and CCTVs. Police and security martyrs’ famlilies to receive 1 crore compensation)Swift dispensation of justice. (Establish new courts, temporary courts for pending cases)Power to Gram Sabhas. (Remove restrictions on land use and claim, provide tenure to farmers, improve bus service in villages, veterinary hospitals, sports facilities)Regularize unauthorized colonies and rehabilitate slums. (Repair streets, provide water, waste management in slums first)Increasing employment. (Young entrepreneurs to get loans at lower rate, vacant posts in govt. filled, space, security, license to street vendors)Facilitate trade. (Withdraw FDI, make trade friendly policies, simplify VAT)No contractualisation of jobs and social security. (Ensuring strict minimum wage)Public transport imporovements. (Unified Transport Authority to be established, developing Ring Rail services, expand metro)Improved roads, parking, arrangements for drivers and commuters. (multi storeyed parking, pavements, special corridors for cyclists, auto stands)Ending pollution and encroachment in Yamuna, Delhi Ridge.Implement SC, ST, OBC reservation. (Simplify issuing caste certificates)Provide opportunities to Valmiki community.Peace and equality to Muslims. (Second language status to Urdu, Punjabi, no fake encounters against Muslims, resolve Muslim graveyards land issue, make Delhi Waqf board transparent)Justice to victims of 1984 massacre (infrastructure in areas where they live)Protecting people with disabilities, provide rights to trans-gender community and nomadic tribes.Encourage sports and culture. (Bring sports under RTI, public library in each constituency, recreation facilities etc)When they came to power, these are the key points they wanted: Aam Aadmi Party election manifesto's key points | Latest News & Updates at DNAIndia.comHere’s another link outlining the 18 points they made in a letter to the BJP and Congress: 18 issues raised in AAP letter to Sonia, RajnathEver since they were elected into power, and in fact, starting a few days prior, AAP’s modus operandi seems to have been to make sure they’re in the news every single day, for one reason or the other. I do not exaggerate, as almost everyone knows. Every.single.day, they’ve occupied more airtime than any other issue. {Edit: This may or may not be because of the media alone. But AAP ensures that if it's a slow news day, they have a plan.}I will now outline a timeline of AAP’s political and social activities each of the days they’ve been in power. I spent close to six hours on this answer, trying to obtain every type of news article published about the party every day they were in power. I’ve included positive news as well as criticisms. If I’ve omitted something, please point it out to me, and be assured it’s not intentional. I’ve also provided citations in brackets in the body of the answer itself instead of as footnotes for easier viewing.Dec 28: AAP is voted into power, with the support of Congress, and then taking a mass SMS poll,website poll, email campaigns, and public meetings from Delhi residents. (Delhi elections: 6.79 lakh took part in Aam Aadmi Party referendum | Latest News & Updates at DNAIndia.com) The decision for a referendum evokes mixed responses. (AAP’s Referendum Good For Democracy - India Opines) (AAP’s referendum on govt draws flak from Delhiites - Hindustan Times) (Page on niticentral.com) {Edited}Members of the party and their background:Arvind Kejriwal: Reputed Magsaysay award winner. Mechanical Engg in IIT-KGP. Tata Steel 1989 to 1992, with one year’s sabbatical to study for the civil services exams (Kejriwal, Arvind). Joined IRS in 1995. Granted 2 years of paid leave in 2000 to pursue higher education on condition that upon resuming his work he would not resign from the Service for at least 3 years. Failure to abide by that condition would require him to repay the salary given during the leave period. Rejoined in 2003 and worked for 18 months before taking unpaid leave for 18 months. Resigned from his position as a Joint Commissioner of Income Tax in Feb 2006, in New Delhi. Government of India claimed that Kejriwal had violated his original agreement by not working for three years. Kejriwal refuted this, saying that 18 months of work and 18 months of unpaid absence amounted to the stipulated three year period during which he could not resign and that this was an attempt to malign him due to his involvement with Team Anna. The dispute ran for several years until, in 2011, it was resolved when he paid his way out of the Service with the help of loans from friends. (Govt finally accepts Arvind Kejriwal’s resignation) He has an impressive track record of activism, starting from 1999.Manish Sisodia: A journalist who had worked for All India Radio and Zee News previously. (Manish Sisodia: From journalist to Kejriwal’s Man Friday )Rakhi Birla: Masters in Mass Comm., previously a reporter for Jain TV.Somnath Bharti: MSc. from IIT-D, degree in law.Satyendra Jain: Former architect.Madhu Bhaduri: A former Indian diplomat, has served as ambassadors in Hanoi, Mexico City, Vienna, Belarus, Lithuania, Portugal, Hamburg. Also a writer.Kumar Vishwas: Hindi poet and literature professor in Rajasthan for 16 years. Recipient of numerous awards (Kumar Vishwas) Performed standup comedy and in Kavi Sammelan in multiple reputed education institutions and abroad.Shazia Ilmi: Mass Comm major, former prime-time television anchor at Star News. Regularly touted as the ‘Muslim Face’ of AAP, her family reportedly has ties with Congress (Shazia Ilmi, ex-journalist: The Muslim face of Team Anna) Her uncle is a member of Congress, while her brother in law, a former Congress politician, is now a member of BSP. Her brother contested against as an independent candidate (AAP vs BAAP! Shaziya Ilmi, brother Rashid Ilmi in faceoff), and publicly alleged her of concealing assets, and requested police protection from Shazia for allegedly resorting to violent behavior with him and their mother. (AAP Candidate Shazia Ilmi’s brother demands protection from sister) Her eldest brother is close to Salman Khurshid (‘Salman Khurshid is behind this attempt to malign me,’ Shazia Ilmi) She is also a film director and documentary maker. (Page on www.10francs.fr)Yogendra Yadav: Academic (political, social sciences), Senior Fellow at Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, former member of NAC, appointed by the UPA government. Also a psephologist and analyst, appeared on numerous TV shows, writer, and award winner. (Yogendra Yadav | CSDS). He was, along with Shashi Tharoor, the former, informal political advisor to Rahul Gandhi (Expert boost is the secret of Rahul’s raw power | Latest News & Updates at DNAIndia.com) (madhukishwar: Not long ago when Yogendra ...)Binayak Sen: A pediatrician and activist, he's the winner of numerous awards, including the Gandhian International Peace Prize. He had been detained for allegedly aiding Naxalites in 2007 in Chattisgargh, and then sentenced to life again in 2010 for helping Naxalite forces form a network, violating Chattisgargh state laws. He is currently out on bail, with the case still pending. (Dr Binayak Sen found guilty of sedition, gets life imprisonment - The Times of India) (Binayak Sen)Kundan Singh, an allegedly notorious outlaw in Bihar who has over 24 cases of kidnapping, extortion, and murder against him. His membership was subsequently canceled by Kejriwal after objections raised within the party. (History-sheeter Kundan Singh leads party in Bihar) (AAP’s rented office in Patna in the eye of storm)Kejriwal takes oath, with 6 ministers in Ramlila Maidan, where he traveled to via the metro. Expense of Rs.6.33 lakh was incurred, excluding expenses for public works department, north Delhi city corporation, Delhi water board, health and family planning department, Delhi fire brigade services, Delhi Police, power department, and information and broadcasting department. (Arvind Kejriwal’s oath-taking ceremony cost Rs 6L - The Times of India) {Edit: The actual expense incurred was Rs. 13.41 lakh Arvind Kejriwal's oath-taking ceremony cost Rs 13.41 lakh, reveals RTI) The decision draws mixed response and is criticized by the opposition for tokenism display as taking the oath in Ramlila Maidan allegedly costs the tax payer Rs.50 lakhs, as opposed to only Rs.20,000 that would have been the cost had he taken oath in LG's residence. (Kejriwal's oath-taking ceremony cost govt Rs 50 lakhs: BJP leader) {edited}He promises enquiry into the CWG scam. (Kejriwal to be Delhi CM-designate today, vows ministers won't use red beacons - The Times of India) He orders transfer of nine officials (Page on firstpost.com), banned red beacons, and removed security for all ministers and MLAs. (Kejriwal takes oath, says no to red beacon)Vinod Kumar Binny of AAP goes on record to call Kejriwal a dictator and states that his agenda, when fulfilled, will cheat the public.Dec 29: Deadline for the original passing of Lokpal bill as promised by Kejriwal, but revised since manifesto. (AAP will pass Lokpal Bill on December 29, 2013 if voted to power, says Arvind Kejriwal) .Delhi policemen come out to declare their support for AAP. (Common Delhi policemen approve AAP's 'Aam Aadmi' government).Party recruits new volunteers in Kolkata. AAP reaches out to ant-Kudankulam protesters. (After forming govt in Delhi, AAP reaches out to anti-Kudankulam protesters) Kejriwal urges Udayakumar to join them and contest in Lok Sabha elections.For a party that talks so much about development, this was another misstep, as talks with Maulana Tauqeer Raza Khan were. Kudankulam nuclear project is known to be perfectly safe (Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant), but AAP appeals to people who now protest against it out of the blue, just in time for elections. Maulana Tauqeer Khan has ordered multiple fatwas and has announced a bounty for Taslima Nasreen’s head, all of which Kejriwal claims to have not known after his “chance” encounter with him on the streets.Dec 30: AAP attempts to implement their promise of 700l free water, but due to lack of pipelines and spiked costs, settles at 667 litres of water per household with pipelines, starting Jan 1st, 2014. Kejriwal clarifies that the decision is permanent, and not only for 3 months. The free water comes at a price though- a spike in water tariff of 10% for anyone consuming above this quantity. AK explains that this would cause a revenue loss for DJB of Rs. 160cr per year, and Rs. 40cr this year. Implementation of the system is expected to be faulty at best, as only a little over 65% of Delhi has pipelines, and the poor without water would continue to remain without water. Another issue raised was that the DJB has no existing system to measure the amount of water provided to a house or information on the population of an area, based on which water supply quantity is to be decided. (http://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/Delhi/aap-delivers-on-water-promise/article5519122.ece) Almost only half of the installed meters are functional (Congress accuses AAP of cheating people on water)AAP confirms that it will contest in Lok Sabha polls. (AAP will be alternative to Dravidian parties: Prashant Bhushan)Dec 31: Members of the AAP continue to tout the press and media as being unbiased and bringing in attention to important and relevant events.The first meeting of the Secretariat was clumsy and haphazard as the ministers learn the ropes. Satyendra Jain calls for a press meet, but humbly apologizes for turning up late and cancels the meet. Manish Sisodia promises the party would be more transparent.Jain inspects healthcare facilities in N. Delhi and proclaims them as excellent, while Sisodia inspects primary schools and notes them as miserable, without infrastructure or even toilets. (AAP's first-time Ministers out of their depth)Jan 1: Former BJP MLA, Kanu Kansaria joins AAP. He is a gynecologist and states he was on the verge of joining Congress, but joined AAP instead. Retired IAS officer and director of MGLI, AR Bharadwaj joins AAP. (Former BJP MLA Kanu Kalsariya joins Aam Aadmi Party)Kejriwal promises 50% power subsidy on power consumption upto 400 units. This decision would cost the exchequer Rs. 200 crores practically (or Rs. 61 crores on paper). DERC claims that the government cannot fix the tariff as it’s a regulatory body issue. Kejriwal says that govt can’t fix the tariff but can provide subsidy (ie, compensate the power companies for the rest of the 50%, compensating for the loss incurred). Kejriwal requests CAG to order probe into 3 power distribution agencies. (Kejriwal’s new year gift to Delhi: 50% power subsidy), (AAP fulfills another poll promise: After free water,Delhi gets half-price power)There is a very obvious, huge, gaping flaw in this plan. 50% subsidy will cause a loss of Rs. 61 crores to the Delhi public, as admitted by Kejriwal. Slashing power tariff this suddenly to so many people would result in massive loss and mismanagement, as basic economics teaches. The budget is present for a reason. In effect, the government tells the public that they have 50% off on power, and then takes the rest of the money from the budget allocated to education or healthcare services. Or proceeds to increase the tax. Not to mention, charging higher tariff after 400 units in the middle of winter. A highly impractical system.Jan 2: AAP wins trust vote in Delhi Assembly. Kejriwal states that Jan Lokpal Bill is the next priority. AAP declares that they are against FDI in retail.Congress’s Arvinder Lovely backs Kejriwal, but states that the free water will make it more expensive for the poor people and easier for the ones who can afford it.First questions about AAP funding being raised. (Live: Kejriwal's AAP govt wins trust vote in Delhi Assembly)Jan 3: AAP’s MS Dhir wins the Delhi Assembly speaker post.Jan 4: AAP start preparation for Lok Sabha polls. (AAP members chalk out plans for 2014 Lok Sabha polls) AAP states that only people with no criminal or personal charges will be considered for candidates.It is revealed that Kejriwal was allotted twin bungalows of 5 bedrooms each, which he backs out of taking due to public furor. Expensive repair work on the twin bungalows is suddenly stopped, people question waste of tax payers’ money.The problem here isn’t the twin bungalows itself. Every minister gets bungalows. Kejriwal was perfectly entitled to live in them. However, he had made it very clear that he will not use government houses and vehicles if he came into power. So this move to live in bungalows was seen as rather hypocritical of him. For all practical purposes, he should have lived in those bungalows.{Edit: I‘ve been pointed out that Kejriwal was allotted two 5-bedroom duplex flats, not bungalows. The media has used the terms interchangeably. I’m trying to find the difference, but it looks like a duplex flat = bungalow is the way it has been used.So, to clarify, Kejriwal was allotted two five-bedroom duplex flats that he refused. And refused because “my friends, supporters have been calling me and sending messages saying I should not move into the five-bedroom flat. So, I have decided to forego them.” (Arvind Kejriwal rejects 5-bedroom house; requests government for smaller flat) Kejriwal also said that the houses that were allotted to him were much smaller than Sheila Dixit’s bungalow.This is the house that was allotted to Sheila Dixit (not her current residence) when she was reelected in 2008:This is the house that was given to Kejriwal:The government incurred expenses in trying to find a suitable accommodation for Kejriwal in the forthcoming days. (Delhi offers six housing options for CM Arvind Kejriwal | Latest News & Updates at DNAIndia.com) Expenses are not mentioned, but the procedure and problems are outlined, and would have, no doubt, cost money.}Kejriwal takes to twitter to defend his minsters being allotted Toyota Innova cars, saying that they had refused only red beacons, not official cars. (We said no to red beacons, not to official cars: Kejriwal) The ministers should use cars, both for safety, and for convenience. It saves a lot of trouble for daily commuters.Delhi court sets hearing date as Jan 25 for five cases filed against AAP and Kejriwal for violating prohibitory orders, unlawful assembly, and other offences. (Delhi court to hear cases against Kejriwal on January 25)Kejriwal says that he will not contest the 2014 Lok Sabha elections despite the party going national. (Page on firstpost.com)Jan 5: Prashant Bhushan starts trouble by stating that there should be a referendum in Kashmir to decide whether the army should take care of internal threats. Err. What? It’s your country, man. Don’t you want to defend it? I’m sorry, but this gets me very angry. Why would you want to take a poll to find out if people of your country want to be protected? Kejriwal clarifies that the view's are Bhushan's own and do not reflect that of the party.{Edit: I’ve drawn a lot of flak for stating that I’m angry that Bhushan made a comment like this. I’m surprised, considering that this issue is the least pertinent to Kejriwal’s resignation. But I’ll clarify my stand anyway.Asking for a referendum is wrong because of various reasons. I’ll simplify this with an example. Let’s suppose there is a gang fight on your street and ten policemen are deployed for the protection of the residents. Out of these ten men, two or three misbehave and cause trouble. But together, they protect the street and curb the violence. They keep away members from other gangs into entering your street, and prevent fighting within. Now, people who look at it from outside feel that the ten policemen’s presence is too much of a limitation, so they should be taken away. Is a referendum a fair deal? Most of the houses might vote yes, but is that the reasonable thing to do, to expose the residents to threats? Besides, you know that there are a few residents who are secretly aiding gangs. Wouldn’t pulling away the police force make it easier for them?Expand this to Kashmir. It is common knowledge that many Kashmiris want to secede to Pakistan and some aid infiltrations. But it is the duty of the Government of India and the Army to protect the citizens. Remember, there are still people who want to be a part of India. And even if everyone wants to be a part of Pakistan, removal of army presence is not justified. Indian Govt holds supreme authority over Kashmiri land and will continue to do so. India has deployed armed forces to protect the land. Stating that there should be a referendum is not just an insult to the Constitution and the Armed forces, but also a highly dangerous statement, bordering on sedition (depending on how you look at it). Kejriwal said that the feelings of the people must be taken into account, otherwise it is a threat to democracy. No, it is ideas like these that are a threat to democracy. Going by Kejriwal’s contradictory statement, elections are a threat to democracy, considering the number of people who vote against a party that eventually comes into power.Re: “internal threats”, yes, it’s the duty of the government to protect against internal threats. There is no dearth of militancy in Kashmir – Pakistani or Indian. The nature of the conflict in the area and the geography of the land, coupled with the weather and the mostly sparse population, mandates an army presence, as opposed to a police presence. It’s common sense. It’s also an issue of national security. That cannot be decided by referendums. Should we take referendums for Naxalites? For Arunachal Pradesh? For Tamil Nadu coasts? Bhushan also said that he believes Kashmir is an integral part of India (Prashant Bhushan does U-turn on Kashmir) Then why did he make the referendum comment, instead of defending the troops in Kashmir? Bhushan’s exact statement is here: Prashant Bhushan for referendum on Army's J&K deployment Secession is unconstitutional, so should be avoided, he says. So 1. What is the point of the referendum, and 2. Why was it okay when passing the Jan Lokpal was unconstitutional? Kejriwal later states that Bhushan withdrew his comment about the referendum, and asks if people want to kill him or Bhushan for it. Do they want to kill me for Prashant Bhushan's J&K remark? Kejriwal asksAs to why Bhushan should not have made that comment: It is very easy to state that the remark that was made was by an individual and not the entire party. It might be Prashant Bhushan’s personal view, as Kejriwal was quick to clarify. But that is just a statement of convenience. If the view had been endorsed, it would have been a victory for the party. It drew criticisms, so it’s a personal view. Going by this, why was Binny expelled for stating his personal views about the party? It’s also a classic votebank move. Now, if and when AAP campaigns in Kashmir, Bhushan would go. The people would remember his statements (although they do not reflect the party’s) and vote for AAP. Stating that it’s a personal opinion makes it very easy for any member of any party to get away with any controversial statement. Had such a statement been made against more sensitive issues like riots or reservations, the issue would have escalated. Other parties are quick to reprimand their members who make controversial comments, but AAP chooses to field its candidates, with no apology. A party is voted for its idealogy, which is not always explicitly stated. It’s the members of a party that project the kind of ideas and stances parties take on issues. }AAP promises to initiate schemes for labour and against contract workers, as stated in their manifesto. (Delhi govt to initiate schemes for labourers,contract workers)Educationist and Padma Shri recipient, JAK Tareen joins AAP. (Educationist joins AAP)Shoaib Iqbal threatens to withdraw support over Kumar Vishwas’ remarks against minority community.Jan 6: Kejriwal goes on record to say that he would probe Sheila Dixit. (Will probe anyone guilty of graft, even if it is Sheila Dikshit, says Kejriwal) When asked about his expose on the CWG scam in 2010, and why he hasn’t taken action against those involved, he states that there were no names in the report.Rakhi Birla files an FIR stating that her car is attacked with a stone, but she is unhurt. Meanwhile, the police claim that a teenager’s gilli-danda stick hit her car accidentally.800 DJB employees transferred.AAP also announces 90% reservation in institutions fully funded by govt for Delhi students.Jan 7: Arun Jaitley reveals that Prashant Bhushan had previously suggested a referendum for the people of Kashmir, asking them to decide whether they wanted to stay in India or Pakistan. (AAP ideology will weaken India: Jaitley) Bhushan had been physically beaten up by unknown workers for his comments, back in 2011. Both Congress and BJP condemn the attacks, neither claims responsibility.AAP creates an internal committee to protect women within the party. (AAP establishes internal committee based on Vishakha Guidelines)Anti-corruption helpline to be setup in two days, Swaraj bill to be drafted in 10 days. (Anti-graft helpline in 2 days, ‘Swaraj’ Bill in 10)AAP announces that it will convert abandoned buses into shelters for the homeless. 1000 new shelters are announced. (AAP to convert abandoned buses into night shelter homes)AAP workers are beaten by Congress workers at Amethi. Congress defends itself by stating that none of the representatives of AAP were from Amethi. (http://indianexpress.com/article/cities/delhi/anti-graft-helpline-in-2-days-swaraj-bill-in-10/){Edited to include modifications} AAP members allegedly walk into a hospital and set up jhuggis, claiming that since the hospital has a lot of empty land that belongs to the government, they are free to do so. More AAP accuse an NGO of encroaching on a community center that the NGO takes care of, maintains, and pays bill for. Delhi Speaker and AAP member, MS Dhir does not allow discussion on this issue for the day, asking that it be brought up later. (‘Anarchy’ by AAP workers alleged ) Kejriwal promises to look into the issue.Jan 8: AAP office attacked by Hindu Raksha Dal workers.AAP draws flak for misleading the public about 90% reservation as only 12 institutions satisfy the criteria. AAP defends by saying that they plan to construct new colleges, carrying over the previous Congress govt’s plan. The reservation draws more flak as it is seen as regressive to promoting national integration. (No ‘outsiders’ in Delhi)Kejriwal and Somnath Bharti come under fire for illegally calling a meeting of all district judges in Delhi. This is because the judiciary is not under the executive in our constitution. Kejriwal claims that this step was taken to improve the system. A petition is filed against AAP in the Delhi high court. (Under fire, AAP says move to meet judges ‘to better system’)The govt threatens to cancel licenses of discoms who do not allow audits.Noted dancer Mallika Sarabhai joins AAP.Jan 9: AAP announces anti-corruption helpline number that receives almost 4000 calls in the first 7 hours. AAP talks about a rollback in CNG prices for auto drivers. (Govt explores legal options to effect CNG price rollback)Manish Sisodia given government residence. AAP very vehemently opposed VIP culture, but their members still travel in special cars bearing VIP numbers. (Manish Sisodia moves into Mayur Vihar flat) {Edit: AAP had stated they would not be taking up government bungalows, not government residences}Kejriwal urges the common public to undertake sting operations if they have a phone, and use video and audio recording facilities. This sees a huge spike in illegal spy gadget sale across the city. (Have a phone? Go sting the corrupt, CM tells Delhi)Kejriwal gets Z-category security. Senior journalist of Network 18, Ashutosh, quits upon the verge of being let go, and joins AAP.Jan 10: Kejriwal states that after the Lokpal bill is drafted, it would be passed in Feb. He also states that the bill will be passed to the public at Ramlila Maidan and the people’s consent taken. The Jan Lokpal bill provides the Lokayukta powers to tap phones, spy on, and put up surveillance on any member of the public or ministry who is suspected of indulging in corruption. (After telling Delhi to sting, AAP wants Lokpal to snoop)Hey, I think my neighbor, who’s a shop owner, is adulterating his goods. Please tap his phone and set up bugs in his house to spy on him?In a complete violation of the Electricity Act, Kejriwal promises exemption for people who had defaulted on electricity bills and withdrawal of cases against those booked for power theft since March 23 last year. (Kejriwal waives 10-month power bill default and theft, BJP calls it anarchy) This is upto 20,000 connections that bills haven’t been paid for regularly. Simple math gives an estimate of how much this would to cost the tax paying public. Note that this is also a form of anarchy. Encouraging people to break the law, ie, power theft. Tomorrow, if a political party asks people to join them in protest, steal power, and not pay bills, and promise a 75% off, it would be utterly and completely justified and the people would migrate to them.A helpline is announced to report power cuts. A Janta Durbar every day in the future is announced, starting the next day.Jan 11: The first Durbar is overrun with a crowd of 20,000 against an expected 500, prompting the government to cancel all proceedings. A bit of short sightedness there, displayed by Kejriwal. Being the CM of Delhi, he should have realized that more than 500 people would turn up. 500 is a ridiculously low number to expect. His swearing in ceremony at Ramlila Maidan was not that far away. Crowds complain about mismanagement and lack of access to the ministers. (Thousands spoil Arvind Kejriwal’s durbar debut)AAP volunteers attacked in Bangalore.Jan 12: Kumar Vishwas shown black flags in Amethi, due to his allegedly insensitive remarks against Hindus and Shia Muslims. (Kumar Vishwas shown black flags, stones pelted at buses of supporters)After the exemption in power that was promised two days ago, Kejriwal does a U-turn and states that the govt is not sure of this decision. (U-turn on power waiver: CM says no decision yet)Communist and CPI member, Kamal Mitra Chinoy joins AAP. (CPI member Kamal A. Mitra Chenoy joins AAP) (Why I joined AAP and Quit the CPI: Kamal Mitra Chenoy) He's a professor at JNU. He has previously courted controversy for alleged sedition, and for speaking out in defence of Osama Bin Laden, especially on twitter.Jan 13: Opposition slams the excessive power cuts and irregular water supply since AAP’s tariff reduction was announced. (With Bijli Andolan, BJP to protest power cuts)Kejriwal discontinues the idea of Janta Durbar.FDI in retail is withdrawn. AAP defends this action by claiming Delhi needs more jobs. (Claiming Delhi needs jobs, Kejriwal scraps nod to FDI in retail) Water supply is affected, Delhi faces water shortage.UP police force starts providing security to Kejriwal. This is over the Delhi police, who tail him in plainclothes wherever he goes. (After cops in plainclothes, now Z-category security for Kejriwal)Jan 14: Law minister Somnath Bharti is accused of tampering with evidence and influencing witnesses in a case last year, where Bharti’s client was facing corruption charges. (Congress attacks Bharti for questioning CBI judge)AAP member Mallika Sarabhai calls fellow AAP member Kumar Vishwas misogynist, anti-minority, and anti-women. (Kumar Vishwas slammed for comparing Narendra Modi with Lord Shiva)Danish national is gang-raped in Delhi.Jan 15: Congress claims FDI rollback violated the legal process, as it was not discussed in the cabinet and approved by the Assembly. (FDI rollback violates legal process: Cong to AAP govt) Top AAP member and Air Deccan founder, Captain Gopinath criticizes scrapping the FDI, calling the move populist. (Capt. Gopinath calls AAP's FDI move 'populist')Nothing about the rape. Nothing about the water problems.Jan 16: AAP promises that CCTV would be installed in buses after a gang rape of a Danish woman.Kejriwal states that the Jan Lokpal Bill would be ready in two days. (Jan Lokpal bill draft to be ready by Friday: Kejriwal)Kejriwal states that the government is looking into water recycling. (Govt looking at water conservation, recycling to meet needs: Kejriwal)Congress attacks AAP for taking a soft stand on the gangrape. Kejriwal blames the Delhi Police for not executing their duties. (Delhi rape: Congress workers protest before secretariat)Nothing done to improve the water situation, educational systems, sewage systems, or any of the other points in the manifesto yet. No news about the power subsidy. No Mohalla Sabhas. No new toilets or schools built. Nothing in place for rainwater harvesting. No shelters for homeless, no licenses for street vendors.Jan 17: Somnath Bharti acts upon the complaint of residents of Khirki extension regarding a sex and drug racket propagated by people of Ugandan and Nigerian nationalities, and conducts his infamous midnight raid. He gathers a crowd of people, informs the media, and goes to Khirki extension with policemen. When the residents of the house don’t answer the door, seemingly away, he orders policemen to break into a house without a warrant, which they refuse to do. All of this is captured by television cameras that were present at the scene. Bharti allegedly makes racist remarks, and crowds attack Ugandan and Nigerian female students, two of whom emerge out and three, who return home, who are then taken to a hospital to take drug samples and are allegedly forced to urinate in public. Samples come clean. There is no evidence of drug peddling or sex trade among the women attacked by the mob and pulled out by Bharti. (Somnath Bharti`s midnight raid: African woman forced to urinate in public) Rakhi Birla accuses police of shielding members of a family that burned their daughter in law.I have written more about this incident and what I feel about it here: http://www.quora.com/Nishtha-Sood/Posts/Somnaths-mistaken-vigilantism-1/comment/409388 Please note that I do not deny the existence of a racket, I only state that the methods adopted by Bharti are wrong and illegal.AAP puts Vinod Binny on notice.Sisodia threatens to “fix” the police. (Sisodia threatens to 'fix' Delhi police if they fail to act)18 people die of cold wave. Where are those buses that were supposed to be shelters?Ugandan woman complains to the police that she was attacked by a mob when returning home, physically beaten, and the police protected her. (In AAP minister's midnight raid, woman made to urinate in public)Jan 18: Government promises shelters for homeless to prevent deaths due to the cold.Kejriwal threatens to go on a dharna if the four cops involved in the previous night’s raid were not suspended. (Kejriwal to Centre: suspend four cops by Monday 10 am or we go on dharna)Kejriwal also appeals to the public to join him. Bharti is accused of vigilantism and flouting the law, attracts a lot of ire. When Sheila Dixit said she couldn’t take actions against rapists because the police weren’t under her control, AAP stated that she was making excuses and can escalate the matter to the center. Today, they have the same problem, and they choose not to escalate, but instead threaten to shut down the city with a dharna. The Lokpal Bill agenda clearly states that the police should report to the Lokpal/Lokayukta and be independent of ministers and MLAs on the one hand. And on the other, Kejriwal protests to bring the police under the Delhi government.Former Karnataka Lokayukta (yes, Lokayukta) attacks Bharti for his conduct. (Santosh Hegde flays Somnath Bharti's conduct)AAP goes on record to say that it supports Telangana.Kejriwal skips defamation case filed against him. (Arvind Kejriwal skips defamation case, court allows exemption plea)Jan 19: Sisodia states that carrying out sting operations is one of the rights of the people. (The idea exchange: ‘The common man has 2-3 powers… one is vote, second RTI, right to sting is another’)Six people die of cold wave. Them invisible shelters and buses.Somnath Bharti calls members of Congress and BJP ‘pimps’. (Somnath Bharti again: ‘Cong, BJP have pimps’)Ugandan woman lodges FIR against Somnath Bharti, identifying him in news vides as the person who instigated the mob against her. Seven women are deposed in court in connection with the case. One of them asks for a second case against Bharti. Bharti denies all allegations. (Somnath Bharti won't resign as Delhi's Law Minister: AAP) Delhi Police register criminal case against Somnath Bharti.Jan 20: Kejriwal calls for a 10-day dharna to have the five policemen suspended. Homeless people died again? No, these cops are more important. The protest would take place in the most protected zone of Delhi’s region, owing to the upcoming Republic Day parade. Kejriwal urges the public to not come join them, citing the issue of disturbance and safety, saying that the protest would only be undertaken by members of the AAP. However, AAP sends undercover messages to AAP units in Haryana and UP to mobilize crowds. (AAP govt told people to stay away from dharna, but quietly mobilised the crowds)Later in the day, Kejriwal calls out to the public, going back on his word, and join them. He also urges the police to throw away their uniform and join them. This is yet another instance of promoting anarchy. Asking people who are supposed to uphold the law to abandon their duties and join in breaking the law. Who would control the massive crowds, then? As Kejriwal wasn’t allowed to take the protest outside the Home Minister Sushil Kumar Shinde’s office, he launches his protest outside Rail Bhavan. Four metro stations shut down.The protests causes security concerns as the Republic Day parade is scheduled six days hence, with full dress rehearsals in three days. The parade is scheduled to take over the area 72 hours before the Republic Day. The threat of terrorism is high, and classified weaponry and crafts of the Indian military, navy, and airforce are scheduled to be present. Kejriwal dismisses security concerns, stating that there is no point in the Parade as the women in our country are not safe. Kejriwal refuses to take the protest to Jantar Mantar, despite the fact that it is an area of high security that has prohibitory orders on it to allow gatherings of more than 5 people, although he is causing major damages to security. (On Day 2 of Arvind Kejriwal's protest, four metro stations, roads near India Gate closed)I see two problems here. One is that Bharti, his own member, attacked women. Secondly, can a sworn in official talk like this about the Republic day? The parade is a source of major pride to all of us Indians, and is a display of the strength of our defense. It is honoring the military, navy, and airforce if anything. It is a nation-wide event. Kejriwal insulted and demeaned our military, and is now causing lakhs of rupees worth of security concerns (causing tax payer money, how do people not see that?). Instead, he chooses to give precedence to suspension of five cops for carrying out their duty and failing to obey their ministers.The protest turns unruly, with AAP volunteers jumping barricades and getting violent, hurting two policemen with stone pelting. The police is then forced to lathi charge. AAP members call the police brutal.Kejriwal defends Bharti by producing letters written by residents of Khirki extension to Bharti. He also displays a letter written to him from Ugandan High Commission that was allegedly handed to him by a Ugandan official, who encouraged Bharti, supporting his decision to lead a mob.Jan 21: AAP supporter allegedly grabs reporter’s neck and slaps cameraman. Sisodia urges people not to break barricades and become unruly, while Kejrwial is caught on camera encouraging people to break and climb over barricades.Captain Gopinath of AAP condemns the protest stating that the CM should not be sitting in protest. (Blog: Let AAP protest, Chief Minister must govern, writes Captain Gopinath)Supreme Court agrees to hear a PIL against Kejriwal and Bharti for resorting to street fight and agitation. Supreme Court also declares that holding constitutional posts, the AAP cannot agitate against other constitutional entitites. (On Day 2 of protests, Kejriwal threatens to flood Rajpath with AAP supporters - Hindustan Times)Hearing is scheduled for two days hence. If the Court stays the protest, Kejriwal would be forced to move the protest to a different location.Kejriwal makes a controversial statement that he is indeed an anarchist if people call him so.Center appeals to Lieutenant Governor to facilitate Kejriwal calling off the dharna so as to not hamper security and increase losses to the tax payer. LG appeals to Kejriwal, who refuses. LG then sends two of the five police officials on paid leave. Kejriwal terms it ‘people’s victory’ and calls off the dharna.Bharti states that he wants to spit in the faces of Arun Jaitley and Harish Salve. ('Want to spit on faces of Jaitley, Salve': controversial comments by AAP)Manish Sisodia tells an NDTV panelist that they’re asking for lawful protests over the burning of a girl, and to wait till his daughter is burnt.Jan 22: Yogendra Yadav tweets in defence of Kejriwal saying that even Gandhi did not get his original demands when he protested. (AapYogendra: Some felt that we did not get ...) Gandhi was protesting against the British, not his own country's government. And when Gandhi indulged in sedition, he was jailed. Here’s a timeline about his protests and his arrests: SparkNotes: Mohandas Gandhi: TimelineAAP defends the move, stating it was the principle that counted, rather than the results. Wasn’t the principle police reform? The police are still not under the state, the five policemen are still not suspended. Officer who stood up to Bharti is not suspended or sent on leave. A junior cop who is below the cop involved in the gang rape was sent on paid leave. No action against dowry case.(Partial success, but principles more important: Aam Aadmi Party on compromise deal)An FIR against Kejriwal is lodged by the Delhi Police. (Delhi police file case against Arvind Kejriwal's sit-in) Please read the points outlined here. Remember, NDTV is a channel that is still very much pro-AAP even today.Captain Gopinath urges Kejriwal to suspend Somnath Bharti. (Somnath Bharti too should be suspended: Capt Gopinath)CPM party, which has been pro-AAP so far slams Kejriwal for protests. (CPM slams Kejriwal for street protest)Congress workers protest for Bharti’s arrest or suspension. (In Pics: Congress workers' protest to demand Somnath Bharti's arrest)Committee is formed for drafting Jan Lokpal bill. (Jan Lokpal may trigger next faceoff) Finally. It was supposed to have been passed on Dec 29, and then Jan 10.Kumar Vishwas’s earlier tapes where he makes sexist and racist remarks against Keralite nurses comes to attention. He calls them dark and says that’s why people refer to them as ‘sisters’. Multiple FIRs are launched against Vishwas under IPC 499 and 509. (Sexist remarks on Kerala nurses: Kumar Vishwas's effigy burnt) Vishwas defends his actions, saying he was making people laugh, and asks Kerala CM to apologize to him for breaking into the AAP office in Kochi. (Kumar Viswas defends himself, wants Kerala CM to apologise)Kejriwal’s claims about an official who visited him and handed over a letter (previous image) is rubbished by the Ugandan High Commission. Uganda registers an official protest with India, accusing AAP of misusing the letter from a year earlier and lying about their officials. Two of the letters circulated by AAP are clarified by Uganda to be not related to the Bharti incident, and being from the previous year. ( Letters minus full story) African missions in India withdraw support, and Indian foreign office calls an emergency meeting with African envoys to assure safety, as Uganda talks to multiple journalists from India to clarify that the letter wasn’t genuine. (No one visited Somnath Bharti: Uganda HC rubbishes AAP's claims)Jan 23: Vinod Binny of AAP comes out to slam AAP’s governing tactics for not meeting the promises made to teachers in the manifesto about permanent jobs. (Binny shares stage with BJP to slam AAP) Oh yeah, there was something about jobs and stuff like that in the manifesto. Thousands of part-time teachers had canvassed for Kejriwal because of the manifesto objective to convert part-time teachers to full-time teachers. (A move that would have strained the budget). Binny also claimed that those who didn’t pay the bills by responding to Kejriwal’s call to shun the bills now have to pay exorbitant amounts.AAP’s anti-corruption helpline is now terminated due to the increasing amount of calls and the inexistence of a process to manage them. (Anti-corruption hotline goes cold, govt says it needs streamlining)Kumar Vishwas’s videos cracking offensive jokes about Indian tennis player Sania Mirza and her marriage to Pakistani cricketer Shoaib Malik emerge, where he reportedly calls Malik a eunuch.Eight senior govt officials are transferred.Jan 24: Binny meets the police, and requests action against Bharti. (Vinod Kumar Binny meets police commissioner, demands action against Somnath Bharti)AAP justifies its protest by releasing a video of Delhi cops’ brutality at Red Fort on Jan 12, unrelated to Bharti’s raid. Police suspend three officials in the video. (Delhi Police suspends three cops after AAP posts video of alleged police brutality)Supreme Court issues notice to Kejriwal for leading a dharna comprised of thousands of people in the capital when prohibitory orders were in place. (Supreme Court issues notice to Delhi government, Centre over Arvind Kejriwal's protest)AAP’s NRI donations drop by half, as a sign of disillusionment. AAP admits that many of its members are fake. ('Narendra Modi', 'Rahul Gandhi' now Aam Aadmi Party members. Here's how)Narendra Modi, Rahul Gandhi, Brad Pitt, Angelina Jolie, Julia Roberts, Barack Obama, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, Jawaharlal Nehru, and Mohandas Karamchand Gandhi are all members of AAP, apparently.Somnath Bharti skips his court hearing and goes kite flying.Jan 25: Kejriwal does a U-turn in his stance about the media, suddenly complaining that the media is being paid to report negative stories about him. (Arvind Kejriwal at Republic Day eve function: Constitution does not bar CM from protesting)So long as the media lauded him, it was fair and just. Today, when it questions your methods and motives, it becomes a paid vehicle.Somnath Bharti apologizes for accusing reporters of being paid by Narendra Modi. (After accusing reporters of taking money from Narendra Modi, Somnath Bharti apologises)Bharti also apologizes for calling the DCW chief of being an agent of Congress and politically motivated. (Comments on DCW chief: Somnath Bharti apologises)Africans in Khirki extension start moving out. Delhi Court clarifies that a second FIR is not needed against Bharti as the first one is strong enough.AAP releases an alleged video of Ugandan women exchanging drugs. (AAP releases video showing Ugandan women exchanging drugs) Ugandan women who were met by Bharti claim he used racist remarks against them.Kejriwal reports that corruption has come down by 30%, the police have stopped taking bribe, tea sellers have reduced rates. Shazia Ilmi reaffirms this, stating a study undertaken by Transparency International proves corruption is down. ('Transparency International' rebuffs Shazia Ilmi's claims) Transparency International later claim that no such study was undertaken.AAP gives Rs. 1cr to officer who fought against liquor mafia. He says that the Jan Lokpal bill is almost ready, and a female protection committee is to be formed. The same one earlier, about protecting women within the party. This took twenty days.Kejriwal incites anger by breaching protocol before the Republic Day parade by refusing to return the parade commander’s salute and walking off the podium. These people represent true martyrs of our nation, who actually sacrifice their lives on the border. It’s an utmost form of disrespect. Internal troubles are internal troubles. The military isn’t involved in any of this.Jan 26: Bharti goes on record to say that he wasn’t aware of the procedures regarding the midnight raid he conducted. (AAP's midnight raid: Was not aware of procedures, says Somnath Bharti) I find it hard to believe that the law minister wasn’t aware of the law. Even so, shouldn’t Kejriwal have been fair then, and apologized? Or have Bharti suspended since he wanted those dutiful policemen suspended too? Imagine another politician who conducts a raid on someone without proof, and the police doesn’t act because they are protecting the citizen’s and foreign nationals’ civil rights. The politician then goes on dharna to say that the police officers should be suspended because they didn’t listen to him, and should come under him. Citizens’ letters don’t constitute proof. If Bharti had wanted, he could have obtained a warrant and gone, or escalated the issue to the center, or have brought it to the media’s attention.AAP lives up to its name and has an aam aadmi, a rickshaw driver, inaugurate an upgraded hospital. (AAP in power: “Aam aadmi”, a rickshaw-puller inaugurates hospital)President Pranab Mukherjee calls AAP ‘populist’ and ‘anarchist’ indirectly. (Populist anarchy cannot substitute governance: President Pranab Mukherjee) Kejriwal retorts, stating that the Presidet must have referred to Congress.Jan 27: AAP expels rebel leader Vinod Kumar Binny. (Vinod Kumar Binny pulls a fast one: AAP leader ends hunger strike within hours, gives more time to Kejriwal govt) Binny goes on record to say that AAP is planning a fall of government to “escape from duties”. (AAP wants govt to fall, says Binny after being expelled from the party)AAP reverses its move for increasing working hours for teachers, reverting to the old system. (Delhi government announces rollback of its move on working hours for teachers)Jan 28: Manish Sisodia states that 200 new schools will be created within one year, and will awarded tenders in 15 days. (30 days of AAP governance: 4 of 18 targets on manifesto checklist ticked)Kejriwal retweets a tweet by musician Vishal Dadlani, an AAP supporter. VishalDadlani: Stuck between a moron and a ... The tweet refers to Narendra Modi as a murderer and Rahul Gandhi as a madman. Yet another major misstep. Prejudices should be kept aside when you’re an elected representative. As someone who holds the post of a state’s CM, Kejriwal should have been more politically aware and not short sighted. Extremely insensitive, lacking dignity and respect.Yogendra Yadav holds a Google hangout to raise funds, Rs. 18 lakhs raised.Jan 29: DCW chief files complaint against AAP for harassing her for summoning Bharti. (AAP government harassing me for summoning Law Minster Somnath Bharti: DCW chief Barkha Singh)Kejriwal refuses to share details of funding and expenses incurred during his swearing in ceremony with the court. A PIL has been filed against him for illegally accepting NRI funding after flouting rules. (AAP has not given funding info to us, says Centre in court)A Delhi NGO invokes RTI to ask for details on AAP’s expenditure during Kejriwal’s swearing in ceremony, which is refused by AAP.Jan 30: After the now infamous interview of Rahul Gandhi by Arnab Goswami, where Rahul Gandhi conceded that some members of Congress were involved in the 1984 riots, AAP orders a special committee formed to probe into the riots. (Let SIT probe ’84 riots cases, govt tells L-G) There have been 9 panels set up to probe the case in the past. Whatever happened to the CWG scam? It’s more recent and all the evidence is sitting right under AAP’s nose.Kejriwal and Barkha Singh of DCW have a faceoff.AAP courts controversy again when Kejriwal states in Haryana that Khap Panchayats should be encouraged and are a part of the culture. Khap Panchayats are unelected bodies, known for their honor killings, and are branded by the Indian Legislative body as illegal and unconstitutional entities. (Arvind Kejriwal says ban on khap panchayats not needed) The gangrape of a 20 year old by 13 men was ordered by a Khap Panchayat. (West Bengal gang-rape, allegedly ordered by village council, stuns Supreme Court)Nido Taniam is killed in a racist attack by the Delhi public and police. Why no dharna now? Kejriwal is silent on the issue.Jan 31: Kejriwal threatens to revoke licenses of discomms if they fail to provide uninterrupted power. Who will provide electricity then? Discomms claim that they are short on funds and cannot pay public sector generation units for power supplies. (Public sector, mind you. Not Ambanis.) AAP leader Gopal Rai accuses discomms of being politically motivated as they didn’t complain of shortage of funds previously. Yes, because people were paying bills. (Will cancel licence if you fail to provide power: AAP warns Discoms) The NTPC, to whom the discomms pay bills, come out to state that power supply to discomms would be terminated if funds are not met. NTPC is a national body. (NTPC rejects AAP's plea, Delhi heads to massive power outage) So, you pay only 50% of the bill, you get only 50% of the power. Seems like a fair deal. Isn’t the government supposed to be providing the rest of the subsidy? What happened to that? Multiple areas in Delhi face 8 to 10 hours of power cut each day.Kejriwal names corrupt leaders in press meet. List does not contain Sheila Dixit. (Long time, no meet!) (AAP executive meet: Points to note)This decision was seen as a strategy by Kejriwal to force Congress into withdrawing support so that AAP falls. Congress reiterates that it will continue supporting AAP. In a bold move, BJP states that if Congress withdraws support, BJP will provide support.AAP member declares that they do not endorse Nido Taniam’s death and the police would be probed. (Student from Arunachal Pradesh beaten to Death in New Delhi)Feb 1: Nitin Gadkari threatens to sue AAP for defamation. (Gadkari threatens to sue Kejriwal for defamation)Kejriwals alleges blackmail when NTPC warns of blackouts. (Arvind Kejriwal alleges blackmail as power firm warns of huge blackouts)AAP founding member, Madhu Bhaduri quits, cites reason as never being allowed to speak in party meetings against Somnath Bharti, and AAP’s views about and behavior towards women. (Khirki raid fallout: AAP's founder member Madhu Bhaduri to resign from 3 committees - Hindustan Times)Delhi Electricity Regulatory Commission allows 6 to 8% hike. Delhi Govt condemns it. BJP starts protest against power tariff hike.No statement by Kejriwal on Nido Taniam’s death.Feb 2: AAP states they will list out a list of corrupt politicians by state.Kejriwal asks for power licences to be canceled for two discomms. (In escalating conflict, Arvind Kejriwal asks for power firms' licenses to be cancelled)Information is unearthed that Somnath Bharti was a former unethical spammer. (Delhi law minister Somnath Bharti was once unethical spammer the link has a lot of details about his website’s service and hosting and records) He is the former owner of Magden Solutions. The Spamhaus Project accused him of spamming on behalf of TopSites LLC, naming him in Register of Known Spam Operations (ROKSO) as one of the top spam operators in the world.( Page on spamevidence.com) PCQuest found that he had been sued in a California Superior Courtfor spamming by Daniel Balsam. Balsam's attorney revealed that in 2004, Bharti and two others had paid Balsam in damages apart from making a court declaration agreeing to use only confirmed opt-in e-mail addresses when sending commercial e-mails. Bharti claims that he chose to settle because defending the case in the United States would have been costlier for him. Bharti also claimed that he was in touch with SpamHaus, but the SpamHaus CEO, Steve Linford went on record to deny. (Top spammer? - PCQuest) SomnathBharti also sold porn domains. (How is Somnath Bharti connected to porn?)Feb 3: Madhu Bhaduri further exposes AAP’s internal policies and functioning. States that AAP doesn’t treat women as humans. She also states that the party has compromised its principles for votes. ('AAP doesn't treat women as humans,' says founder member Madhu Bhaduri as she quits) She publishes a written article about AAP and her reason for resignation. (A voice of dissent is drowned by the AAP high command | Latest News & Updates at DNAIndia.com)AAP alleges that Arun Jaitley and Narendra Modi are conspiring against the party.An AAP member, Madan Lal claims he was offered Rs. 20 cr to split AAP before the election results. He also alleged that Arun Jaitley had tried to contact him via phone but he didn’t respond. (Delhi: BJP protests outside AAP MLA Madan Lal's house) BJP has rubbished the claims.Chaired by Kejriwal, Delhi Cabinet approves the Jan Lokpal bill, details of which are not revealed to the public. Some points have been outlined. (Delhi cabinet approves Jan Lokpal Bill)‘Pol Khol Abhiyaan’ announced to be started the next day. (AAP to launch 'pol khol' to expose BJP, 'Congress conspiracy' | Latest News & Updates at DNAIndia.com)Kejriwal states that the Swaraj Bill is drafted. (Draft ready: AAP set to table Swaraj Bill)Feb 4: Kejriwal writes to the President to probe into CWG and take action against Sheila Dixit. (Meanwhile, Kejriwal asks President to act against Sheila) Why aren’t they doing it themselves?A day after Rahul Gandhi visits protesters from NE, Kejriwal joins the protest, apologizing for joining four days late. He announces measures to meet the demands of the protesters, one of which is the inclusion of NE history in textbooks. (Nido Taniam's death: After Rahul Gandhi, Arvind Kejriwal joins protesters)Manish Sisodia makes a surprise visit to a school and finds the principal and teachers do not come on time. He declares that parents should be given powers to suspend teachers. (Parents should be able to suspend teachers: Manish Sisodia)Prashant Bhushan holds a press conference to name Karunadhi and Kanimozhi as beneficiaries of 2G scam. AAP claims to possess leaked audio tapes. Bhushan states he would upload the audio tapes. (AAP comes out with fresh charges against Karunanidhi, Kanimozhi, World , Aninews)Three women from the Ugandan community come forward saying that they were promised jobs in India, but were instead forced into sex and drug trafficking. DWC asks for more patrolling in Khirki area. (Delhi Women Commission wants patrolling intensified in Khirki)AAP states that their next agenda is targeting Narendra Modi.Feb 5: TV channel Headlines decides to investigate AAP’s claims that police do not accept bribes and invoke AAP’s statement on rights to conduct sting operations. A sting operation on Delhi police reveals more than four policemen who demand and accept bribes. (Sting operation exposes rot of corruption in Delhi Police)AAP reportedly finalizing a Lokayukta bill (not Jan Lokpal) (AAP government finalising Lokayukta Bill: Top 10 provisions)Delhi High Court seeks Centre’s assistance in hearing a plea to register a case of cheating against Kejriwal, Sisodia, and Bhushan for misleading the public with false promises under Section 420 of IPC.It emerges that Kejriwal had in fact requested for the duplex bungalows for himself as soon as coming into power in a letter to the LG.(Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal had requested for Bhagwan Das road accommodation)Feb 6: AAP files FIR into CWG scam. The inquiry is closed immediately at the initial stage, although Bhushan alleges that there have been “strong findings”. The move is speculated to be another step in the tactical suicide, hoping to force Congress to withdraw support. Congress continues to support AAP. (After Delhi govt’s order, ACB files FIR in Rs 90-crore CWG street light scam)Solicitor General Mohan Parasaran writes to Lieutenant Governor Najeeb Jung, deeming the bill ‘unconstitutional’. LG writes back, seeking counselon two counts: whether presenting the Bill in the Assembly “without sending the legislative proposal to the Central government” — as Arvind Kejriwal’s government has sought to do — violates the constitution; and whether the Delhi government has the power to legislate on matters concerning the Delhi Police and the Delhi Development Authority. (Setback for AAP govt, Solicitor General rules: Lokpal needs Centre OK) Former Army Chief General VK Singh criticizes Kejriwal for taking to the streets. (Taking to streets won't solve people's problems: Gen V K Singh)Feb 7: Sol. Gen. Parasaran states that the bill can be passed only if approved by Center and recommended by the LG and assented by the President. This is because the bill is a financial bill which draws funds from the Center. To support his opinion, the Solicitor General has relied on provisions in the Government of National Capital Territory of Delhi Act, 1991. Since the Jan Lokpal Bill’s provisions will overlap with those in the Lokpal and Lokayuktas Act, 2013, Parasaran suggests the law can never come into force without the President’s assent. Also, Article 239AA of the constitution stipulates that the Delhi government cannot make laws with respect to the police, unless it is approved by the President. Parasaran has not been provided a copy of the bill by AAP, flouting protocol. AAP states that it will push the bill without the approval from Center. (Setback for AAP govt, Solicitor General rules: Lokpal needs Centre OK)In short, AAP wants funds from the Central government to be used in a manner that is not even disclosed, but it does not want to seek approval from the Center. AAP also seeks to pass the bill in a manner that clearly violates the Constitution. Yet another step in the strategy to make sure that the AAP govt is dissolved.This answer outlines the legal procedure and implications: User-12487416925627785344's answer to What is wrong with how the Jan Lokpal Bill was presented by the AAP Government in the Delhi Assembly on 14 February 2014?. The bottom line is that the bill needs LG’s recommendation to the President and the President’s approval before it can be tabled in the assembly. BJP goes on record to state that they support the bill, but only if introduced in the proper manner.AAP alleges that the LG is an agent of Congress and is trying to malign the image of the party. (AAP hits out at Lt Gov over ‘leak’ on Jan Lokpal bill issue, calls him a ‘Congress agent’)Auto drivers of Delhi accuse Kejriwal of cheating them and stating that their needs are being ignored by the government. (Arvind Kejriwal beats hasty retreat as angry auto-drivers shout slogans) Kejriwal had previously taken away from Delhi Police the power to fine autorickshaws drivers who refuse to carry passengers. (A move bound to please his party's biggest vote bank but the one that put the commuters at a disadvantage.)RIL takes discomms to court, Kejriwal warned prepare Delhi Govt for an ‘ugly situation’ that could develop and ensure that power is supplied to the public. (Reliance discoms take NTPC to Supreme Court)Kejriwal meets the German President. (Kejriwal meets German President, discusses Jan Lokpal, elections)Feb 8: RK Pachauri, director general of The Energy and Resources Institute explains the economics of why Kejriwal’s plan to slash power tariff and provide free water is actually causing more problems and energy waste, leading to financial loss. (AAP's free water policy may end up in lot of wastage: RK Pachauri)Kejriwal writes a strongly worded letter to the LG, asking him to uphold the constitution. Ironically. (Kejriwal reminds L-G of oath to Constitution, forgets his own)Feb 9: Kejriwal says he would contest LS if needed, but first commitment is towards Delhi. (I would contest Lok Sabha polls if need arises, but my first commitment is to Delhi: Arvind Kejriwal)He also announces on the same day that he would resign if Jan Lokpal Bill is not passed. I find that rather contradictory to his previous statement.Feb 10: Rambeer Shokeen announces that he withdraws support to AAP because water and power problems have not been addressed. Shokeen alleges that Kejriwal does not respond to his calls. (Independent legislator to withdraw support to AAP government | Latest News & Updates at DNAIndia.com)Power and water problems have increased due to the subsidy that was promised.Kejriwal meets the LG to discuss issues with the bill. LG then referred the bill to the Law Ministry for a final opinion.Congress goes on record to state that they support the bill in its entirety, provided it is introduced in a constitutional manner. (Won’t allow Jan Lokpal Bill to be tabled in Assembly: Cong)Manish Sisodia threatens to cut funding to colleges if members of AAP are not included in the staff. (AAP’s new front: Battle with DU over college bodies) A letter written by teachers at DU states that AAP is engaging in art-twisting tactics to get a hold in the university. 4,000 teachers wait for permanent employment, and that AAP has ordered priority of their own members over existing teachers. A backtrack on their words from the manifesto.Prashant Bhushan is caught in the midst of controversy over 15 acres of land he owns in Himachal Pradesh. HP Vigilance Bureau claims Bhushan’s institute was allotted the land for constructing educational institutions, and are in violation of the law as the building in the land is not affiliated with any education board. Bhushan retaliates, saying that the red-flagging is politically motivated because he complained against Virbhadra Singh. (Top AAP leader Prashant Bhushan in land row) (Himachal Pradesh govt may confiscate AAP leader Prashant Bhushan's Kangra land)Feb 11: Kejriwal orders FIR against Reliance’s Mukesh Ambani, Veerappa Moily, and Milind Deora for fudging numbers in natural gas after holding a press conference. Legal experts challenge the authority of the Delhi Govt to file an FIR in the national matter, but Kejriwal and Sisodia field their decision saying that since the act was committed in Delhi, it falls under their jurisdiction. Experts also question the validity of the criminal FIR against Ambani as there already is a civil suit against Ambani for the same offence, registered by the same people, that is pending. (Gas price FIR: RIL weighs legal options; may file defamation suit against Kejriwal)BBC reveals in London after a sting operation that members of the UK arm of AAP are involved in student visa fraud. (`AAP UK workers embroiled in student visa scam`)Feb 12: The Law Ministry upholds LG’s stance that the Centre’s approval is needed for introducing the bill. Congress and BJP reiterate that they support the bill in its entirety, provided it is introduced in manner that does not violate the Constitution. A man with a government less than two months old cannot and should not be allowed to pass a bill in the assembly without following the rules. Not only is it unconstitutional and illegal, it doesn’t make any sense. Exactly how much of a track record does he have as a successful politician for the assembly to even consider it?High court asks Kejriwal to justify use of a public stadium for anti-graft Lokpal Bill.Kejriwal modifies the Jan Lokpal Bill a day before introducing in the assembly to state that people found indulging in corruption will not be punishable by the Lokpal. (In climbdown, Arvind Kejriwal's Jan Lokpal can no longer punish corrupt officials)Why has nobody raised this issue? This effectively means that Lokpal would declare someone as guilty, and then pass it on to the court. Which would leave the execution again to the police. What is the whole point of the bill then?Feb 13: LG writes to the Speaker, saying that the bill cannot be tabled as it has not followed the proper procedure for introduction under Transaction of Business Rules, 2002. (Jan Lokpal Bill can't be tabled, says Delhi L-G)Bill draws criticisms from Kejriwal’s fellow Magsaysay award winner, Aruna Roy, writer Arundhati Roy, former Chief Justice of Supreme Court, the Director of CBI, with the President of Center for Policy Research, Pratap Bhanu Mehta, terming it “premised on an institutional imagination that is at best naïve; at worst subversive of representative democracy”. (Of the few, by the few) (Break lokpal into 5 institutions: Roy - Hindustan Times)Despite the Law Ministry’s ruling and the LG’s stance, Kejriwal attempts to table the bill in the assembly. The assembly is repeatedly disturbed by the opposition.Speaker MS Dhir of AAP attempts to introduce the bill, but is met with aggressive opposition by members who gather around his seat.Both the Speaker and Kejriwal walk out of the Assembly, and the assembly is adjourned.Feb 14: Introducing the bill is put to vote, with 42 members voting against the introduction of bill and 27 MLAs voting for it.Kejriwal resigns.Now, Kejriwal has iterated and reiterated that he will do “whatever it takes” to pass the Jan Lokpal Bill. (Will go to any extent for Jan Lokpal Bill: Arvind Kejriwal) So, why did he not adopt the simple solution of following the official procedure? Both BJP and Congress stated their support. Failing to introduce the bill after it is approved by the LG would only make Kejriwal’s claims that the Opposition is opposed to the bill that much stronger. Why did he not go through the proper channels? Is that what he means by whatever it takes? Is this the spirit with which to run a government? Quit the instant one thing doesn’t work out, when you’ve planned 17 other things?AAP reiterates that the Centre should consider former Attorney General, Soli Sorabjee’s views on Home Ministry 2002 order, where he states that it is an attempt to compartmentalize Delhi Govt. (L-G should consider Soli Sorabjee’s view on 2002 order: AAP)Just before resignation, AAP sends out mass text messages in Delhi, urging people to come out to the party’s office. (Before Arvind Kejriwal resigned, mass SMS brought crowd of supporters at AAP office)Here are some points from his resignation speech: They think they are 'angrez', Lieutenant Governor the viceroy: Arvind Kejriwal's top 10 quotesI would sit here and refute every one of them, but I’m not going to bother.Since resignation three days ago:Former Attorney General, Soli Sorabjee, defends the LG and criticizes Kejriwal for not following rules and repeatedly bringing up Sorabjee’s name for defense. (Former Attorney General Soli Sorabjee backs Lt Governor Najeeb Jung's decision)Man who threw a shoe at P Chidambaram is now an AAP member and will contest LS polls. (AAP fields man who hurled shoe at P Chidambaram for Lok Sabha polls)Kejriwal appears for multiple interviews. States that since the Lokpal bill wasn’t passed, he saw no sense in continuing. (Since Jan Lokpal was blocked, saw no sense in continuing as Chief Minister, says Arvind Kejriwal: highlights)Of course, other points of the manifesto don’t hold a candle to the Lokpal Bill.He also states that he had inside information that Congress and BJP will allow the bill to pass, but after his filing an FIR on Mukesh Ambani, they would not allow it.AAP releases list of first 20 candidates for LS polls.Today, he was again on TV at CII. The point is, they’re still in the news every hour of every day, and for mostly the wrong reasons. When it’s a slow news day, they seem to have strategized press conferences. It’s a brilliant tactic, fully utilizing the “bad publicity is also good publicity” idea and constantly remaining in the public eye.What did AAP do these 49 days?Revoked FDI in retail, causing investment losses; introduced a water tariff cut that was extremely arbitrary as there are still no means to measure water supply and consumption, and not enough connectivity to provide free water to poor people; cut the electricity bill by 50% at the cost of Rs. 61 crore to the exchequer; take to the streets to protest against five cops and to get them suspended, only to call off the protest when two of them are sent on paid leave, causing thousands of rupees worth of damages to the Delhi public; attempt to table a Jan Lokpal bill unconstitutionally, that superseded the bill at the center; resign.The bigger picture here is that the whole situation was a win-win for Kejriwal. If he stays in power, well, he stays in power. If he resigns, he’ll be seen as a martyr who had to forego his Chief Ministership because the opposition did not allow anti-corruption reforms. Every action Kejriwal took was backed by the proclamation that he was fighting corruption. One cannot fight illegal problems by creating new illegal problems. But since it went against establishment and the established government at the Centre is corrupt, Kejriwal is going to be touted as a hero. This is exactly what has happened, and nothing could be farther from the truth. A simple look at the condition Delhi is in right now will tell. A simpler look at AAP’s 18 point manifesto is even more telling.What are the implications of his resignation? Here’s a sample:In a classic case of votebank politics, AAP declared a fee waiver of 50% to all members of the Delhi Public who support the AAP in agitation. On the day that Kejriwal resigned, he also piloted the appropriation bill (in the proper manner, might I add) to designate Rs. 372 crores towards subsidy for power companies. This sum was drawn from a consolidated fund from the Infrastructure and PWD budget allocation for Delhi. Now, he also has to subsidize the Rs. 6 crore loss caused due to the 50% tariff on the public. Since the specific relief to defaulters was not a part of the original manifesto, AAP has not worked out where the 6 crores are to come from. Now, the discomms are at a loss as to how to recover their share of the subsidy. Delhi is to expect power outages. (AAP ki sarkar's bonanza for power defaulters a hogwash? - The Times of India)Similarly, Delhi does not have water. There is water shortage, and there is an artificial water shortage created by the tanker mafia. Kejriwal promised water to all in his election manifesto, but settled for a certain amount for free water for every house that has a connection. Herein lies the problem. Not every house has a connection! Like I said before, only 65% of the population has water connections. 7 lakh households are not linked to the water grid. This means that people who have water already are going to get surplus water, and the ones who need the water are still in the same situation as before. Now, the “free” water isn’t technically free. It costs money to deliver and supply the water, and money is needed for the human labor and physical infrastructure. Where is the money going to come from? Tax, of course. Everyone pays taxes. But the poor (who do not have water) are now going to end up paying for the excess water the rich get. Economist Surjit Bhalla points out here (Not so aam aadmi policy), at 670 litres per household per day, the AAP government is basically giving every individual the right to consume around 170 litres of water a day free. This is much higher than developed countries like UK or USA. AAP’s decision to charge consumers for the entire amount consumed should they go even one litre above 670 a month will only encourage the manipulation of water meters on a gigantic scale, rather than rationalise consumption. It’s easy to look at this short sightedness and proclaim initial victory because most of Delhi might be (or might not be, I’m not sure, are you all?) getting free water. But this populist decision will hit and hit hard. AAP is wasting away the Rs. 446 crore profit made by the DJB, instead of utilizing it to improve infrastructure so as to provide water to all households, 24x7. Make no mistake, this decision was regressive, and if implemented, might just drag the Delhi govt into bankruptcy. Kejriwal’s plans have created problems, not solutions. (A better articulated piece is here: Page on firstpost.com) Here’s a completely simple article that states exactly what the problem is: Asit K Biswas & Cecilia Tortajada: Delhi's water supply - Going, going, gone?The Lokpal bill is the easiest argument of Kejriwal’s to refute, because you do not need any understanding of civics or economics to see the problem here.Why did Kejriwal quit?Because the Jan Lokpal bill was not passed.So?He said that he would quit if the Lokpal Bill was not passed, and he did. What’s wrong in that?A zillion things. Firstly he said that only on the 9th( he quit on the 14th). And saying that he will quit does not justify his quitting. Any government can now take a stance, saying that they would quit if a condition of theirs isn’t met. Let it be a condition built on the core principle of a party, it does not justify the quitting. If Kejriwal felt the parties were not cooperating in passing the bill, he should have gone to the LG and gotten it approved and passed it. If he didn’t want to do that, he could have amended the existing Lokpal bill of the Centre and implemented the Jan Lokpal, like so many other states have done. Remember, he said that he would go to any extent and do whatever it takes to get the Jan Lokpal passed. Well, it’s not passed. If he didn’t want to pass it, he could have let the situation be, used Congress and BJP as an excuse, and focused on other problems, like power and water. As an elected representative, he owed this to the public. He promised to quit if the bill isn’t passed, fair enough. He also promised to implement a lot of other things when he came to power. Where are those things now? How is the public even accepting his resignation as a sign of integrity when it’s nothing but running away from responsibilities? Is the public of Delhi so easily fooled and so short sighted that they accept a “because I said so” argument from a person they themselves elected? Bear no doubt, it was a brilliant political move by Kejriwal, for the party’s benefit. But it’s the public that is going to suffer.What’s the plan for Delhi now?Nobody has any idea. It is under the President’s rule, for now. But we don’t know if Delhi is going to get free water and power. We don’t know when the reelections are and who would win. AAP is now focusing on LS, so Kejriwal is out of running for the Chief Minister’s post again.Manish Sisodia is to be the CM candidate, while Kejriwal aims for Lok Sabha elections. (Good luck, Delhi!)AAP was a shining beacon of hope, full of opportunities. Powerful people like Kiran Bedi and even populists like Chetan Bhagat (sorry CB!) were very prominent supporters of AAP, and are now disillusioned with their politics. As are ordinary people like myself and many others who voted the party into power.Now what happens to the water supply? Are people going to get free water still? What about electricity? AAP is now putting its full effort in contesting the Lok Sabha elections, so what happens to the Jan Lokpal? Where are the educational reforms that were promised? What happened to converting buses to homes for the poor? Did anyone compensate the families of those who died in the streets? Did AAP compensate the families of military men, as promised? A government’s first duty is towards the people. What did AAP do for the people, and I’m talking majority of the people? Ban red beacons? How long is it going to take for them to come back? Where is the sewage plan, the waste management plant, the rainwater harvesting plan? Where are the new schools and colleges? What happens to the 90% reservation? What happened to making Urdu the second language? What happened to the 25 people who died because of the cold when Kejriwal was sitting in his dharna? What happens now to the foreign investment losses due to the sudden recall of FDI? And most importantly, why did Kejriwal not order probe into the CWG scam that took place under Sheila Dixit as soon as he assumed office?Is this the man our country deserves as a Prime Minister? Someone who can’t fulfill basic promises or expend the money in his possession in a progressive manner? Someone who is elected, but quits in less than 50 days without making a single progressive reform?While I know that there are thousands of supporters of AAP, and even here on Quora, I have to say, Delhi has lost a hard won battle, thwarted of its gifts by false promises. Kejriwal obtained the trust and votes of the Delhi public, but in all appearances, when he realized he could not manage the government, he bolted. I’d say he betrayed their trust. And I was one of the people who had high hopes for them, mind you. I’ll clarify that. I wanted them to come to power and to take on an anti corruption and developmental role.Congress and BJP are distasteful because they fool the millions of illiterates and uneducated people by buying their votes and making promises just before the elections. AAP is dangerous because they fool the educated public with their tactics and clever concealment of the full picture.I sincerely hope there is a reelection, and AAP wins again. They must clean up their mess.Note: I know this would invite a lot of comments and disagreement. I kindly request posters to stick to BNBR. Since I have tried very hard to not bring up Congress or BJP or any other political party as a comparison in this answer, please try to refrain from doing so unless necessary. If your retaliation is “But Congress did it and ten years ago, BJP also did it,” your point is moot, as you’re resorting to the exact argument used by Congress and BJP representatives, and are no different from them. And please, do not downvote comments you do not agree with, as has happened in other answers.
How true are the predictions on climate change?
None of the dramatic predictions of coastal cities being swamped, Islands sinking into the sea causing millions of ‘climate refugees,’ polar ice melting away fast, polar bears facing extinction have happened. Why? The evidence is the changes in the climate including temperatures have been well within natural variability.Look at temperature data since the LIttle Ice Age in 1700 and you see lots of oscillations up and down but in the end no change to worry about.This question is very important because the failure of predictions about a severe temperature rise go to the key issue is there a climate crisis or not. The answer is clear no crisis from the evidence of temperatures.This is just the view of two major petitions by leading European scientists: there is no climate emergency - stop the madness of abandoning fossil fuels when they are most needed at the climate cools.Italian petition90 leading Italian Scientists have just issued a petition with details confirming no climate crisis from human industrialization and exposing the computer modeling errors of alarmists that deny the dominant role of the sun in the climate and natural variability. The petition says -Climate simulation models do not reproduce the observed natural variability of the climate and, in particular, do not reconstruct the warm periods of the last 10,000 years. These were repeated about every thousand years and include the well-known Medieval Warm Period , the Hot Roman Period, and generally warm periods during the Optimal Holocene period.These PERIODS OF THE PAST HAVE ALSO BEEN WARMER THAN THE PRESENT PERIOD, despite the CO2 concentration being lower than the current, while they are related to the millennial cycles of solar activity. These effects are not reproduced by the models.The full terms of the Italian petition follows -90 Leading Italian Scientists Sign Petition: CO2 Impact On Climate “UNJUSTIFIABLY EXAGGERATED” … Catastrophic Predictions “NOT REALISTIC”By P Gosselin on4. July 2019In 1517, a 33-year-old theology professor at Wittenberg University walked over to the Castle Church in Wittenberg and nailed a paper of 95 theses to the door, hoping to spark an academic discussion about their contents. Source. The same is happening today in Italy concerning climate science as dogma.90 Italian scientists sign petition addressed to Italian leadersTo the President of the RepublicTo the President of the SenateTo the President of the Chamber of DeputiesTo the President of the CouncilPETITION ON GLOBAL ANTHROPGENIC HEATING (Anthropogenic Global Warming, human-caused global warming)The undersigned, citizens and scientists, send a warm invitation to political leaders to adopt environmental protection policies consistent with scientific knowledge.In particular, it is urgent to combat pollution where it occurs, according to the indications of the best science. In this regard, the delay with which the wealth of knowledge made available by the world of research is used to reduce the anthropogenic pollutant emissions widely present in both continental and marine environmental systems is deplorable.But we must be aware that CARBON DIOXIDE IS ITSELF NOT A POLLUTANT. On the contrary, it is indispensable for life on our planet.In recent decades, a thesis has spread that the heating of the Earth’s surface of around 0.9°C observed from 1850 onwards would be anomalous and caused exclusively by human activities, in particular by the emission of CO2 from the use of fossil fuels in the atmosphere.This is the thesis of anthropogenic global warming [Anthropogenic Global Warming] promoted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the United Nations, whose consequences would be environmental changes so serious as to fear enormous damage in an imminent future, unless drastic and costly mitigation measures are immediately adopted.In this regard, many nations of the world have joined programs to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and are pressured by a intense propaganda to adopt increasingly burdensome programs whose implementation involves heavy burdens on the economies of the individual member states and depend on climate control and, therefore, the “rescue” of the planet.However, the anthropogenic origin of global warming IS AN UNPROVEN HYPOTHESIS, deduced only from some climate models, that is complex computer programs, called General Circulation Models .On the contrary, the scientific literature has increasingly highlighted the existence of a natural climatic variability that the models are not able to reproduce.This natural variability explains a substantial part of global warming observed since 1850.The anthropogenic responsibility for climate change observed in the last century is therefore UNJUSTIFIABLY EXAGGERATED and catastrophic predictions ARE NOT REALISTIC.The climate is the most complex system on our planet, so it needs to be addressed with methods that are adequate and consistent with its level of complexity.Climate simulation models do not reproduce the observed natural variability of the climate and, in particular, do not reconstruct the warm periods of the last 10,000 years. These were repeated about every thousand years and include the well-known Medieval Warm Period , the Hot Roman Period, and generally warm periods during the Optimal Holocene period.These PERIODS OF THE PAST HAVE ALSO BEEN WARMER THAN THE PRESENT PERIOD, despite the CO2 concentration being lower than the current, while they are related to the millennial cycles of solar activity. These effects are not reproduced by the models.It should be remembered that the heating observed since 1900 has actually started in the 1700s, i.e. at the minimum of the Little Ice Age , the coldest period of the last 10,000 years (corresponding to the millennial minimum of solar activity that astrophysicists call Maunder Minimal Solar ). Since then, solar activity, following its millennial cycle, has increased by heating the earth’s surface.Furthermore, the models fail to reproduce the known climatic oscillations of about 60 years.These were responsible, for example, for a warming period (1850-1880) followed by a cooling period (1880-1910), a heating (1910-40), a cooling (1940-70) and a a new warming period (1970-2000) similar to that observed 60 years earlier.The following years (2000-2019) saw the increase not predicted by the models of about 0.2 ° C [two one-hundredths of a degree]per decade, but a substantial climatic stability that was sporadically interrupted by the rapid natural oscillations of the equatorial Pacific ocean, known as the El Nino Southern Oscillations , like the one that led to temporary warming between 2015 and 2016.The media also claim that extreme events, such as hurricanes and cyclones, have increased alarmingly. Conversely, these events, like many climate systems, have been modulated since the aforementioned 60-year cycle.For example, if we consider the official data from 1880 on tropical Atlantic cyclones that hit North America, they appear to have a strong 60-year oscillation, correlated with the Atlantic Ocean’s thermal oscillation called Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation .The peaks observed per decade are compatible with each other in the years 1880-90, 1940-50 and 1995-2005. From 2005 to 2015 the number of cyclones decreased precisely following the aforementioned cycle. Thus, in the period 1880-2015, between number of cyclones (which oscillates) and CO2 (which increases monotonically) there is no correlation.The climate system is not yet sufficiently understood. Although it is true that CO2 is a greenhouse gas, according to the IPCC itself the climate sensitivity to its increase in the atmosphere is still extremely uncertain.It is estimated that a doubling of the concentration of atmospheric CO2, from around 300 ppm pre-industrial to 600 ppm, can raise the average temperature of the planet from a minimum of 1° C to a maximum of 5° C.This uncertainty is enormous.In any case, many recent studies based on experimental data estimate that the climate sensitivity to CO2 is CONSIDERABLY LOWER than that estimated by the IPCC models.Then, it is scientifically unrealistic to attribute to humans the responsibility for warming observed from the past century to today. The advanced alarmist forecasts, therefore, are not credible, since they are based on models whose results contradict the experimental data.All the evidence suggests that these MODELS OVERESTIMATE the anthropogenic contribution and underestimate the natural climatic variability, especially that induced by the sun, the moon, and ocean oscillations.Finally, the media release the message according to which, with regard to the human cause of current climate change, there would be an almost unanimous consensus among scientists that the scientific debate would be closed.However, first of all we must be aware that the scientific method dictates that the facts, and not the number of adherents, make a conjecture a consolidated scientific theory .In any case, the same alleged consensus DOES NOT EXIST. In fact, there is a remarkable variability of opinions among specialists – climatologists, meteorologists, geologists, geophysicists, astrophysicists – many of whom recognize an important natural contribution to global warming observed from the pre-industrial period and even from the post-war period to today.There have also been petitions signed by thousands of scientists who have expressed dissent with the conjecture of anthropogenic global warming.These include the one promoted in 2007 by the physicist F. Seitz, former president of the American National Academy of Sciences, and the one promoted by the Non-governmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), whose 2009 report concludes that “Nature, not the activity of Man governs the climate”.In conclusion, given the CRUCIAL IMPORTANCE THAT FOSSIL FUELS have for the energy supply of humanity, we suggest that they should not adhere to policies of uncritically reducing carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere with THE ILLUSORY PRETENSE OF CONTROLLING THE CLIMATE.http://www.opinione.it/…/redazione_riscaldamento-globale-…/…PROMOTING COMMITTEE:1.Uberto Crescenti, Emeritus Professor of Applied Geology, University G. D’Annunzio, Chieti-Pescara, formerly Rector and President of the Italian Geological Society.2.Giuliano Panza, Professor of Seismology, University of Trieste, Academician of the Lincei and of the National Academy of Sciences, called of the XL, 2018 International Award of the American Geophysical Union.3.Alberto Prestininzi, Professor of Applied Geology, La Sapienza University, Rome, formerly Scientific Editor in Chief of the magazine International IJEGE and Director of the Geological Risk Forecasting and Control Research Center.4.Franco Prodi, Professor of Atmospheric Physics, University of Ferrara.5.Franco Battaglia, Professor of Physical Chemistry, University of Modena; Galileo Movement 2001.6.Mario Giaccio, Professor of Technology and Economics of Energy Sources, University G. D’Annunzio, Chieti-Pescara, former Dean of the Faculty of Economics.7.Enrico Miccadei, Professor of Physical Geography and Geomorphology, University G. D’Annunzio, Chieti-Pescara.8.Nicola Scafetta, Professor of Atmospheric Physics and Oceanography, Federico II University, Naples.SIGNATORIESThe UN and other alarmists used computer models that failed to reflect reality as evidenced by the glaring hindcast errors of global temperatures, 1979–2015.Indeed the alarmist computer models have been so inaccurate they are a disaster and have influenced leading scientists to conclude garbage in garbage out.SNOW IS THE DEATH KNELL OF GLOBAL WARMING.KAZAKHSTAN’S CAPITAL UNDER “STATE OF EMERGENCY” AS SEVERE WEEK-LONG WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO RAVAGE THE CITYJANUARY 28, 2020CAP ALLONAuthorities in the Kazakhstan capital of Nur-Sultan have declared a state of emergency after a week-long winter storm continues to pummel the city with strong winds and heavy snow, reportsakipress.com.Deputy Minister of Interior of Kazakhstan, Yuri Ilyin, declared the emergency over the weekend.Since January 23, a total of 645 people have required rescuing from the snowstorms and accompanying drifts, according totengrinews.kz. In addition, and over the same period, 133 stranded vehicles have been been dug-out and towed — 106 cars, 9 buses, 18 trucks, and 1 loader.Transportation links to and from Nur-Sultan were cut on January 27, while all schools in the capital remained closed. A spokesman for city’s International Airport has confirmed that all flights have been cancelled indefinitely, for obvious safety reasons.Kazakhstan's Capital under "State of Emergency" as Severe Week-Long Winter Storm Continues to Ravage the City - ElectroverseFAILED PREDICTIONS ABOUT WINTER SNOW DEBUNK ANY HUMAN CAUSED CLIMATE CRISISThe UN and alarmist scientists put the state of winter weather in play. They predicted moderate winters without snow would be the key evidence validating their hypothesis denying Mother Nature controls the climate. This failed prediction goes to the heart of so called global warming. Winter weather must become much milder with increased temperatures or there is not climate change. The alarmist knew the science of the snow albedo when they made this key prediction.Snowfall will become “A very rare and exciting event…Children just aren’t going to know what snow is.”Dr David Viner– Senior scientist, climatic research unit (CRU)The prediction that “children just aren’t going to know what snow is” was made by Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia, in the year 2000. It could not be more wrong and is cogent evidence that the new weather pattern of global warming/ climate change is not happening.TEMPERATURE IS ACHILLES HEEL OF ALARMISMEven though President Obama and other global-warming alarmists warn of a looming climate apocalypse, they avoid giving a metric to prove their claims. They blame man-made climate change for a vast array of ills, including floods, droughts, wildfires, and tornados. But they never quantify what they say is the driving force behind it all: temperature.Is Global Warming a Hoax?Written by Ed Hiserodt and Rebecca TerrellIs Global Warming a Hoax?Temperature increases over the past 140 years are too small and within the range of natural variability to constitute human made global warming. NASA Goddard Institute finds warming of 0.8* Celsius (1.4* Faherheit) since 1880. This means an average of only 0.0175 degree Celsius temperature increase annually. This minute amount is within the statistical error of the data.World of Change: Global TemperaturesREFERENCESIN 2001, the UN IPCC predicted diminished snowfalls as human CO2 increased, claiming that “milder winter temperatures will decrease heavy snowstorms” due to the activities of man kind person kind…IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeTHEY also forecast “warmer winters and fewer cold spells, because of climate change…”ALBEDO is often key in academic articles about Climate Change. For example, in this paper research finds as the Albedo declines the temperature increases melting mountains etc.Albedo means the snow reflects sunlight away making the weather colder. This feedback goes on and on in a cycle of cooling impacting the spring, the next summer, fall and the next winter and ultimately the planet. Therefore with snowy winters the fear of a too hot climate is impossible.Some say the alleged warming cases an increase in moisture and this causes the increased snow. This is impossible as it does not explain the record cooling needed for the moisture to turn to snow.The story of snow is strong evidence that the global warming hypothesis is false because reality so contradicts the hypothesis of human caused warming.The moderate snowless winter predictions made sense because without winter snow spring and summers would warm up and so on leading to unprecedented warming. On the other hand with snow continuing the prediction of global warming cannot happen.The moderate snowless winter predictions made sense because without winter snow spring and summers would warm up and so on leading to unprecedented warming. On the other hand with snow continuing the prediction of global warming cannot happen.Recent Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent trends and implications for the snow‐albedo feedbackRecent Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent trends and implications for the snow‐albedo feedbackStephen J. Déry Ross D. BrownFirst published: 27 November 2007Recent Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent trends and implications for the snow‐albedo feedback1. Introduction[2] Snow cover over the Northern Hemisphere (NH) ranges, on average, from a minimum extent of 2 × 106 km each August to a maximum extent of 45 × 106km each January or nearly one half of the NH land surface [Lemke et al., 2007]. Because of its large seasonal variability and distinctive physical properties, snow plays a major role in the climate system through strong positive feedbacks related to albedo [e.g., Groisman et al., 1994a] and other weaker feedbacks related to moisture storage, latent heat, and insulation of the underlying surface [Stieglitz et al., 2003]. The snow‐albedo feedback, along with the ice‐albedo feedback, is invoked as a leading cause of amplified warming in polar and mountainous regions [Serreze and Francis, 2006; Fyfe and Flato, 1999]. Consistent with this hypothesis, changes in snow cover duration during the first and second halves of the hydrological year over 1967–2004 show a contrasting seasonal response, with the largest decreases occurring in spring over mainly NH high elevations [Robinson and Dewey, 1990; Groisman et al., 1994a; Fyfe and Flato, 1999].Easy to see why glaciers expand when the Albedo / snow cover is so bright.As the Arctic expands with increased ice and snow the albedo is triggered and that makes the temperature colder like we witnessed this year. The snow albedo from the Arctic is a loop where snow makes is colder which makes more snow which makes it colder and so on. This is surely a more common sense explanation than the bizarre unproved theory that global warming causes the shift in Arctic air.Also there are major science peer reviewed papers that identify the ALBEDO as the cause of this unique cooling.One year of uncontrolled wild fires in Australia in 2019 show no warming trend when averaged over 67 years.But in 2019 record snowy winters are weather very relevant of global warming because they contradict the alarmism predictions about snow.PHOTO of Australian ski bus and very happy skiers.Record snowy winters are increasing putting the lie to global warming.Extreme WeatherGSMAUSTRALIA’S PERISHER SKI RESORT IS EXTENDING TO OCTOBER 13, MAKING 2019 THE LONGEST SEASON ON RECORDSEPTEMBER 14, 2019CAP ALLON“BREAKING NEWS: Perisher’s natural snow depth has hit 2.25 metres. We’re extending the season!“ –reads the opening lines of a recentperisher.com.au/article.Conditions are reportedly “incredible” at Perisher right now (the largest ski resort in the southern hemisphere located in the ‘Snowy Mountains’ of NSW) with the natural snow base hitting 2.25 meters.Skiers and boarders will now be able to turn and burn the sensational snow until Sunday 13 October!After “significant” snowfalls, an early opening in May, brutally cold temps and impressive Aug and Sept storms, 2019 has not only become one of the greatest seasons ever, but also officially Perisher’s longest season on record, at 136 days:Australia's Perisher Ski Resort is extending to October 13, making 2019 the Longest Season on Record - ElectroverseMountain snowfall in Tateyama Kurobe Kanko, Japan reaches 52 feet attracting touristsCold and snow in South Africa31 Jul 11 - As sub-zero weather swept across South Africa this week stranding hundreds of motorists on the N3 highway and bringing light snow to Joburg, this article ever so subtly tries to pin the blame on humans."Speculation was rife that we are starting to feel the effects of climate change," wrote Journalist Mokgaetji Shadung.This even though an expert climatologist said this was not necessarily the case.“Yes, it is unusual but not unprecedented,” said climatologist Dr Willem Landman.“People always get worked up about climate change, but it is predicted that we will only be able to see its real effects decades from now.”He added that weather science has not even developed sufficiently to accurately predict weather patterns over the next five to 10 years.If weather science cannot accurately predict weather patterns over the next five to ten years, then how come the IPCC is trying to con us into thinking they know what's going to happen a hundred years from now?“It’s still early to predict when the snow will end,” said Mkhushulwa Msimanga, a senior forecaster at the South African Weather Service. South Africans should brace themselves for more cold weather and snowfall over certain parts of the country.WESTERN CAPE/ 4 JULY 2018, 1:41PM / YASMINE JACOBSSnow, hail, rain and sub zero temperatures, it's been bitterly cold across most of South Africa. Picture: Henk Kruger/African News AgencyCape Town - Snow, hail, rain and sub-zero temperatures, it's been bitterly cold across most of South Africa. According to meteorologists, this is one of the coldest winters the southern hemisphere has ever experienced.#ColdFront: If you think this is cold, try spending winter in Buffelsfontein | IOL NewsA Summary of Winter 1962-63 UKMarch 4, 2013 by Durham WeatherDecember 1962. Cold (1.8C CET), and generally quite sunny, although smog early in the month (starting on the 4th) probably killed several hundred people in London. This was the last of the great London smogs before the Clean Air Acts took effect. There was persistent freezing fog elsewhere in the country, around the 10th, followed by a wintry outbreak, with some snow across the country on the 12th and 13th. Midmonth there was rain and some severe gales as the weather became very mild. But the month is most notable as the start of the Great Freeze, one of the two greatest prolonged weather events of this century by my reckoning (the other being the summer of 1976).The pressure started to rise on Saturday 21st; there was widespread dense fog, with many football matches postponed. Cold air started to set in on December 22nd as an anticyclone formed over northern Scandinavia, bringing very cold continental air west from Russia. On the 23rd the pressure in the Scandinavian high reached 1050 mbars. There were a few days that were cold but sunny in the daytime, and with severe frost at night. Over Christmas the Scandinavian anticyclone collapsed and a new one formed over Iceland, bringing northerly winds down across the country from Greenland.Snowdrifts in Annfield Plain, February 1963The front separating the cold Arctic air from the north met the even colder Continental air originating from Russia from the east gave a significant snowfall as it moved south across the country. It started snowing in the far north on Christmas Eve, and the cold front moved slowly south. Hence although Christmas Day was cold but sunny in the south, with maxima ranging from -4C to 0C, there was snowfall in the north: Glasgow had a White Christmas. The snow reached Lancashire at about midnight on Christmas night, and continued to move south across most of England during Boxing Day, reaching the Midlands around midday and finally reaching London and the south around midnight.I remember vividly waking up to snow and frost the next day. After this, a block was then formed, and cold air established. Occasionally mild air approached the south west, but the great winter was set until to the end of February 1963. Over much of the country snow lay from December 26th until March 2 (67 consecutive days). 2-4″ of snow fell in the north, but snow fell for longer (two days) south of the Thames, leaving up to 18″. The second major snowfall of the end of the month was on the 29-30th, and was accompanied by bitter, gale-force easterly winds. By the end of the month there were snow drifts of 8′ in Kent and 15′ in the west. This is the first major weather event I remember (apart from some frightening – to me – thunderstorms). I remember making a snowman, and the thick frost coating the windows.A Summary of Winter 1962-63 - Durham Weather UKMore academic studies showing how snow causes lower temperatures.SNOW ENHANCES THE DIABATIC (physics involving the transfer of heat) COOLINGThe influence of autumnal Eurasian snow cover on climate and its link with Arctic sea ice coverContinental snow cover affects the atmosphere via changes in surface albedo (Cohen 1994). A larger snow cover increases the surface albedo and reflects shortwave radiation away from the surface (Gong et al. 2004, Jeong et al., 2013). A snowpack also insulates the atmosphere from the soil surface. In winter at high latitude, these two effects explain that snow enhances the diabatic cooling at the surface and in the atmospheric boundary layer (Fletcher et al. 2007; Dutra et al. 2011), which locally increases the sea level pressure (SLP).Abstract: The relationship between Eurasian snow cover extent (SCE) and Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation is studied in reanalysis during 1979-2014 and in CMIP5 preindustrial control runs. In observations, dipolar SCE anomalies in November, with negative anomalies over eastern Europe and positive anomalies over eastern Siberia, are followed by a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) one and two months later. In models, this effect is largely underestimated, but four models simulate such relationship. In observations and these models, the SCE influence is primarily due to the eastern Siberian pole, which is itself driven by the Scandinavian pattern (SCA), with a large anticyclonic anomaly over the Urals. The SCA pattern is also responsible for a link between Eurasian SCE anomalies and sea ice concentration (SIC) anomalies in the 34 Barents-Kara Sea. 35 Increasing SCE over Siberia leads to a local cooling of the lower troposphere, and 36 is associated with warm conditions over the eastern Arctic. This is followed by a polar vortex weakening in December and January, which has an AO-like signature. In observations, the association between November SCE and the winter AO is amplified by SIC anomalies in the Barents-Kara Sea, where large diabatic heating of the lower troposphere occurs, but results suggest that the SCE is the main driver of the AO. Conversely, the sea ice anomalies have little influence in most models, which is consistent with the different SCA variability, the colder mean state, and the underestimations of troposphere-stratosphere coupling simulated in these models.1. Introduction The role of Arctic conditions in the mid-latitude winter climate is under debate, especially for the North Atlantic sector (Overland et al. 2015). In this region, the atmosphere has a dominant short-timescale chaotic intrinsic variability and is mainly unpredictable. However, several studies suggest that the variability of Arctic sea ice extent (Yamamoto et al. 2006; Francis et al. 2009; Honda et al 2009; Wu and Zhang 2010; Frankignoul et al. 2014; Garcia-Serrano et al. 2015, Koenigk et al. 2016, King et al. 2016) and Eurasian snow cover extent (SCE, e.g. Cohen and Entekhabi 1999, Cohen et al. 2007, Cohen and Jones 2011) have some influence onto the atmosphere during winter. Such influence may account for an improvement in skill of long-range prediction due to continental snow (Jeong et al., 2013, Orsolini et al., 2013) and sea ice (Scaife et al. 2014) initialization and improved physics (Riddle et al. 2013) in current forecast systems. Continental snow cover affects the atmosphere via changes in surface albedo (Cohen 1994). A larger snow cover increases the surface albedo and reflects shortwave radiation away from the surface (Gong et al. 2004, Jeong et al., 2013). A snowpack also insulates the atmosphere from the soil surface. In winter at high latitude, these two effects explain that snow enhances the diabatic cooling at the surface and in the atmospheric boundary layer (Fletcher et al. 2007; Dutra et al. 2011), which locally increases the sea level pressure (SLP). [Emphasis added] A larger SCE over Eurasia has been reported to intensify and expand the Siberian high (Jeong et al., 2011; Orsolini et al., 2013).Guillaume Gastineau*1, Javier García-Serrano2 6 and Claude Frankignoul Sorbonne Universités, UPMC/CNRS/IRD/MNHN, LOCEAN/IPSL, Paris, France Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, Spain 14 15 16 May 15th, 2017 17 18https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org...Global Warming False Alarm: The Bad Science Behind the United Nations' Assertion that Man-made CO2 Causes Global Warming Perfect Paperback – July 10, 2009by Ralph B. Alexander (Author)Have you ever wondered why so many people believe recent climate change is almost entirely the result of human activity, even when there's plenty of evidence to the contrary? It's because the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says so.This compact, readable book pulls apart the flawed science behind the IPCC's assertion that man-made CO2 is causing global warming. Author Ralph Alexander exposes the IPCC's deceptive manipulation of climate data, the roadblocks for the CO2 hypothesis favored by climate change alarmists, and the failed predictions of computer climate models.Dr. Alexander goes on to examine the consequences of the erroneous, but widespread belief that CO2 emissions need to be drastically curbed for the health of the planet. His analysis shows the folly of carbon trading schemes for regulating CO2, together with common illusions about renewable energy sources. The enormous economic cost of cap-and-trade systems squanders our resources on a problem that doesn't even exist.The book was awarded an eLit Gold Medal in March 2011, in the Environment/Ecology/Nature category, for books written in English and published electronically for the global marketplace.About the AuthorRalph B. Alexander is currently a senior market analyst in environmentally friendly materials and industrial processes, at a small Midwest consulting firm. With a PhD in physics from Oxford University, Dr. Alexander has been a researcher at laboratories in Europe and Australia, a professor at Wayne State University in Detroit, and the co-founder of a small high-tech materials company. Author of numerous scientific research papers and reports on complex technical issues, he lives in California with his wife, Claudia.The book does a very good job of outlining the various arguments demonstrating that climate sensitivity to very small changes in the composition of the atmosphere must itself be very small. And that is the only question that really needed to be answered in the climate debate.– Lord Christopher MoncktonIn addition from the beginning data tampering has been rampant to try vainly to show more warming.Massive Data Tampering Uncovered At NASA – Warmth, Cooling Disappears Due To Incompatibility With ModelsBy Kenneth Richard on 16. January 2017Ice-pack of liesAlarmists are avoiding the truth about climate and the polesHoward Thomas Brady24 August 2019Unfortunately, critical scientific research does not always filter through to the public. Consequently, climate alarmists are getting away with blue murder pretending that we are on the edge of a climate precipice. These activists argue we are in a new era of catastrophic climate change. Make any reference to the historic past to gain some perspective and you will be howled down. Persist and you will be told that the pace of modern climate change is so rapid any perspective gained from examining the past is meaningless. They argue history must be whitewashed as we are in a ‘totally unique’ period; the Anthropocene.Once case in point concerns carbon dioxide levels that have risen from 280 to 410 parts per million since the mid-19th century. These levels are historically low. At various times for millions of years plants and animals have happily lived and thrived in levels between 1,500 and 2,000 parts per million; over four times the carbon dioxide levels of today. Climate events in the last 15,000 years have been as dramatic and rapid as any seen today. As such, those changes totally disprove the panic stories spread by activists.Why incite panic about the present retreat of polar glaciers when the retreat of polar glaciers in West Antarctica was even more dramatic 8,000 years ago? Why talk about the ‘unprecedented’ rate of modern warming when the rate of warming in West Antarctica was greater in the mid-18th and mid-19th centuries than in recent decades? Why pretend an ice-free Arctic Ocean would be a sign of dramatic climate change when the Arctic Ocean was ice-free at various times between 14,700 and 6,000 years ago? Why panic about ice loss in Greenland when the Greenland ice sheet was much smaller 10,000 to 6000 years ago?When the climate changes there is little temperature change in the tropics but there is amplified climate change in polar regions. A general term describing this gradient change is ‘polar amplification’. Consequently, historic climate changes in polar regions place climate change in the 20th and 21st centuries in better perspective. In Antarctica, alarmists point to the present retreat of the Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers. But how can this retreat be unprecedented and indicative of catastrophic global warming when geological fieldwork indicates these glaciers retreated further 8,000 years ago?Alarmists may allege that the present rate of glacial retreat outstrips that of the past. But ice cores show such an argument is unwarranted. Dr Elizabeth Thomas and other scientists from Cambridge, England have examined Bruce Plateau, Ferrigno, and Siple Station ice-cores. These show the most dramatic rates of warming per decade in the last 308 years were not in recent decades, but in the decades between 1740 1789 and 1839 1888.Surface temperature records taken at West Antarctic stations tell an enigmatic story that is not consistent with the anthropogenic warming narratives of the alarmists. While the Argentine Orcadas Station on Laurie Island has a temperature record going back to 1903, most Antarctic temperature records come from stations set up since the 1950s or from automatic weather stations added since the 1980s.The overall pattern in these records shows warming since the 1950s and overall cooling or level temperatures since 1999. Such a pattern is not consistent with the alarmist narrative.There are other climatic surprises in Antarctica. The most surprising has been a general increase in Southern Ocean pack ice (sea ice) over the last 40 years at the same time there has been a significant decrease of the Arctic Ocean pack ice. And (surprise, surprise!) at various times in the last 10,000 years the oceans have been much warmer than today. Professor Yair Rosenthal and others have used chemical analyses of marine fossils to show that ‘the deep ocean heat content in both hemispheres today is not only less than in the Medieval Warm Period (i.e. 1,000 years ago), but it is well below the deep ocean heat content in the very warm period scientists call the Middle Holocene Thermal Maximum, which occurred 10,000 years ago.’Alarmists point to declining areas of pack ice in the Arctic Ocean and the loss of ice from the Greenland ice sheet as evidence of catastrophic anthropogenic climate change. Tourists may gasp and cameras click, but the rate and extent of these spectacular events are not outside the natural variability of climate change. Even if the Arctic Ocean becomes ice-free in the 21st century such an event is not ‘unprecedented’. Swedish scientists such as Stranne, Jacobsen and Björk, have uncovered evidence of an ice-free Arctic Ocean at various times between 14,700 and 6,000 years ago!In Greenland the alarmists point to recent ice sheet loss and the dramatic retreat of glaciers such as the Jakobshavn. Huge ice-blocks falling off glaciers are touted as proof of human-induced climate change. However, many studies and historical records show that Greenland was warmer during the Medieval Warm Period. The historical records left by the Norse settlers in southern Greenland from the 10th to the 14th Century tell of summer crops and cattle. But the real surprise came this year as Professor Axford and others unearthed evidence that a northern section of the Greenland ice sheet was at its warmest from 10,000 years to 6,000 years ago and was even smaller than today. They argue that ‘Lake Deltasø experienced the warmest summer temperatures of the Holocene between approximately 10 and 6.2 thousand year ago… the North Ice Cap reached its present-day size circa 1850 AD, having been smaller than present through most of the preceding Holocene (2019).’ One wonders what the alarmists would have predicted if they were living during the shrinking of the Greenland ice sheet 10,000 years ago.In order to advance their agenda, climate alarmists have spun a web of false statements and traded on the fact there is not enough historical knowledge to prove them wrong. However, as more of Earth’s history comes to light, their ‘slogans of alarm’ are being shown to be fallacious and meaningless. There is no reason to fear rising carbon dioxide levels. Present climate change, as epitomised in the climate-sensitive polar regions, has not been outside the bounds of natural variability during the last 15,000 years.Historical studies are debunking the climate alarmism that has for too long driven the modern climate debate.Dr Howard Thomas Brady, the author of ‘Mirrors and Mazes: a guide through the climate debate’, has post-graduate degrees in Philosophy,Theology and Antarctic science. He has a climate website: A guide to the climate debateIce-pack of lies | The SpectatorSnow data and experience is key to debunking global warming.Global warming does not make winters record colder and very snowy. Winters are colder because global warming is not happening. The authors of the global warming hypothesis universally predicted more moderate winters without snow because snowy winters brings an albedo effect into play.Record snowy winters are increasingly putting the lie to global warming.Damaging nationwide storm to cause $3 billion in damages and economic losses, AccuWeather estimatesByJohn Roach, AccuWeather staff writerApril 11, 2019, 7:07:04 PM EDTI-35 gradually re-opening after multiple crashes in whiteout conditionsHeavy snow has made conditions extremely difficult.Nobel Laureate Dr. Kary Mullis is correct in his assessment of the current state of climate science, describing it as a "Joke".As he correctly points out, there is no scientific evidence whatever that our CO2 is, or can ever "drive" climate change.There is also no published empirical scientific evidence that any CO2, whether natural or man-made, causes warming in the troposphere.
With so much talk about Smart Cities, what evidence of smart cities do you see?
It’s worth going back to a basic definition and looking at some extensions.Wikipedia’s is pretty good:A smart city is an urban area that uses different types of electronic data collection sensors to supply information which is used to manage assets and resources efficiently.One of the things that’s good about this definition is that it’s not about visible gizmos and it doesn’t presupposed IoT solutions or CCTV. It’s about using the capabilities of the various sensors available to us to gather information. Then using other techniques to make cities better.This has been going on for years, we’re just getting better at it. It was common to see people standing on street corners with clipboards and the like counting passing vehicles a couple of decades ago.Now, there are simple sensors run across roads and increasingly bike paths that send information on each passing vehicle to a computer.Both examples used existing technology, but one is a lot more expensive than the other and a lot more error prone. And both have the same purpose: gathering data to support the existence or change of traffic infrastructure in context of how it’s used and how uses are changing. This data allows better decision making and allows in many cases more controversial changes to be supported, typically in the case of cycling infrastructure.For the most part, we ignore this data gathering process. It’s just invisible street sensors. And we see none of the analysis of the data happening in the background. And we see none of the position papers and policies and decisions arising from analysis of the data. But we do see better traffic flow.A tremendous amount of urban infrastructure was built based on first principles of what a designer thought made sense with limited empirical evidence, based on historical examples or was just poorly thought through. Evidence-based decision making is resulting in a myriad of changes, many of which we don’t think of as smart city components.A major example of this is the realization that road lanes were too wide and that there were two few solid objects close to the road. The North American highway designers of the early part of the 20th Century were working from first principles when they decided that 13 foot (4 meter) wide lanes and that clearing shoulders of roads of all solid objects that might be struck would increase the safety of roads. They were wrong. Wider lanes and no roadside obstructions led to significantly increased speeds, even between lights with drivers accelerating hard and then decelerating hard. Higher speeds meant more frequent collisions of greater severity, both with other vehicles and with other road users such as cyclists and pedestrians.But it took a lot of data to figure that out data that was much harder and more expensive to collect prior to a lot of cheap sensors. As a result, this error persist for 80 years and is embedded in most city streets today. What’s an outgrowth of this smart city learning?Complete streetsA complete street is one which gives sufficient room for pedestrians, cyclists and cars. It features bike paths that are segregated from moving traffic and pedestrians. Left and right turns from the street are typically moved out of through lanes in front of parked cars.This is a screen-grab from Google Maps Streetview from the street I live on in Vancouver BC. Narrow lanes for cars. Separated bike path behind parked cars on the left. Trees growing close to the road separating pedestrians from traffic and cyclists.Why are complete streets a result of seeing that lanes were too wide? Well, widened sidewalks and the room for bike paths came from narrowing lanes and putting car parking between the bike path and the car. And trees planted between the road or bike path and pedestrians stand on ground both reallocated from the too-wide lanes and put physical boundaries close to moving cars.The results are intriguing. Counter-intuitively, car flow on complete streets sees equal or higher throughput, but maximum vehicle speed drops a lot. The out-of-the-through lane turning zones means through traffic isn’t impeded by cars turning left or right. Cycling and pedestrian traffic shoots up as both forms of transportation are isolated from faster moving, heavier traffic and are shaded by the trees. Complete streets give a lot less room to cars and put a lot more solid objects close to cars and total throughput of the street increases substantially, safety increases substantially and the city gets smarter.If you look at before and after pictures of the streetscape above, what you’ll see are different paint on the road — a cheap intervention — and trees by the side of the road, which have multiple strong value propositions for cities beyond smart street traffic calming, including rain flooding diminishment, urban heat island reduction and traffic noise mitigation.Complete streets are an example of smart cities.But the example is an interesting one. There are no sensors in the picture shown above. There don’t need to be. Empirical evidence and sensors aren’t required all the time in order for useful information to be gathered. They can be set up, used for a period of time for a study, then moved elsewhere.Here’s another example of smart city technology which we don’t really think about, transit integration with mapping software.How does Google Maps know how to get from Vancouver to the Tswassen Ferry Terminal? How does it know how long it will take?Transit organizations in pretty much every city in the world expose their routing information in a fairly standard way for third parties to use. Companies like Google pick it up, then integrate it with their existing mapping for cars, including traffic slow downs and rerouting that they receiving from other sources.All of a sudden, we have multi-modal transportation routing choices on our laptops, tablets and phones and can make choices that include transit easily.And it’s pretty easy to find out when trains and buses will arrive these days. Most train stations have LED signboards saying when the next train will arrive, information that comes from both the schedule and sensors that say where trains are. Many cities have numbers you can text for each bus stop on a route which return the time when the next bus arrives.All of this trivially accessible data allows us to be smarter about our transit choices and more efficient.That’s a smart city intervention.Another example I’ll provide is air quality monitoring and DieselGate. What do they have to do with one another? VW was caught by an independent emissions monitoring firm that strapped sensors to VWs and drove them in the real world, not by smart cities efforts, weren’t they?Yes and no. About 15 years ago Europe turned to diesel as the means to minimize CO2 emissions. It was a good interim choice in the era which predated electric vehicles being viable. They also invested heavily in transit, bike lanes and walkability, all of which are more viable in densely populated European cities than in sprawling North American cities.In part, this was based on the promises of the major European auto manufacturers about clean diesel technologies, the same technologies implicated in DieselGate.After a decade or so of increased diesel use along with increased transit, biking and walking, along with decreased emissions from coal generation, European cities were baffled and somewhat horrified to find that they had slightly worse air quality than they had had in 2000. Here’s an excerpt from a typical 2012 article:More than 90% of people living in European cities breathe air that the UN's World Health Organisation says leads to respiratory problems, heart disease and shortened lives, according to a study published on Tuesday.This was specifically a case of sensors — basic smart city technology — collecting data which was analysed over an extended period of time to determine if targeted desirable outcomes were being achieved.And they weren’t. The smart cities were finding out that the collective decisions that they’d made were not turning out to be smart enough. And air pollution kills people. It diminishes quality of life. It makes people sick. It prevents people from choosing to bike or walk to work. It acts as an inhibitor to efficient operation of the city.But they weren’t sure what was causing it. Lots of hypotheses were thrown around. Hands were wrung. There are an awful lot of sources of air pollution.The Dieselgate results led to a reassessment of air quality monitoring. And a bunch of new temporary sensors being put in along city streets for short duration monitoring. And it became clear that the promises of the manufacturers of diesel vehicles weren’t being realized, even where non-spoofed technologies were in play. In the real world, diesel still wasn’t clean.And conditions were radically different in 2014–2015 than in 2000. Diesel wasn’t the only low-CO2 vehicle technology now that multiple manufacturers had completely adequate and often outstanding electric cars on the road. And for urban purposes, electric truck and utility vehicle fleets make extraordinary sense. So Europe is pivoting rapidly to electrification and away from diesel, to the chagrin of the European manufacturers who have spent 20 years investing in diesel instead of pivoting in the late 2000s when it was clear what the ultimate drivetrain winner was going to be.So now European cities, and cities in North America, are getting cleaner air, which is smart. Due to sensors. And analysis.But the intelligence isn’t some gizmo that picks a pattern out of a stack of hay in a millisecond and puts up an alert on your phone. It’s multiple data sets from multiple sources analysed by committed and intelligent people resulting in changes which benefit cities. It means breaking away from the patterns of the past that were built on legacy technologies, first principles assumptions and the lobbying of legacy industries and embracing what empirical data shows us.That’s what is making cities smart.The last example I’ll provide is from the opioid epidemic. I was at the BC Health Information Management Professionals spring conference recently (one of my domains of professional expertise is automation in healthcare). The morning was spent on the opioid crisis that’s sweeping North America and to a lesser extent Europe. BC’s Lower Mainland is ground zero for this public health challenge. BC has seen a rise of roughly 200 overdose fatalities a year to 1,400 a year in the past decade.The most interesting presentation to me was from Surrey’s Fire Chief, Len Garis. He’s also Adjunct Professor, School of Criminology and Criminal Justice & Associate to the Centre for Social Research University of the Fraser Valley, Affiliated Research Faculty - John Jay College of Criminal Justice, and The Christian Regenhard Centre for Emergency Response Studies, New York. Yeah, he has a lot of hats.His presentation was focused on the use of evidence-based interventions with clear monitoring of results to deal with the opioid crisis. He worked with multiple agencies and Microsoft to create multiple geographic and statistical visualisations in near-real time and over time for opioid overdoses and related events.This is one of his dashboards, of the primary focus area for opioid and drug challenges in Surrey. It shows different rates of opioid overdoses and among other things is used to detect what overdose outbreaks, typically related to an overly strong proportion of fentanyl in a batch of drugs. When these incidents occur, data gathering sweeps them rapidly into the system through multiple means. And when an outbreak occurs, texts and other messages are sent to first-responders to let them know that an area has bad drugs. And then intervention kicks in rapidly.Garis and his team have used this strongly evidence-based approach to identify patterns of property crime related to opioid-addiction. They’ve used this to hypothesize interventions such as rehab house assessments of naxalone and related drug-safety measures against outcomes.This is all smart city efforts, in this case aimed at a current scourge, fentanyl. It’s part of what is preventing a tremendous number more overdoses in the Lower Mainland than would occur otherwise.And this strongly evidence-based approach is part of the reason why Garis has all of those other hats. It’s been deeply effective and with provable results at a low cost in Surrey, and he’s helping other cities become equally smart around the world. He’s integrated the efforts of first-responders, health care and social services to deal with an epidemic.Technology giants such as Alphabet (nee Google), IBM and Microsoft have invested heavily in smart cities concepts and approaches. Most of them have not seen significant revenue from these efforts and most of the efforts have a whiff of marketing about them. IBM was in Rio de Janeiro setting up a smart cities operation center concept about a decade ago, one which was rarely sold. Alphabet is in Toronto with its Sidewalk Labs initiative in a new industrial land makeover.Microsoft’s work with Surrey is the strongest evidence I can find of a tech giant garnering excellent results. And mostly that was just providing a Cloud-based toolkit that was inexpensive enough for a dedicated team led by a visionary such as Garis to create an intelligent set of responses.A great deal of the low-hanging fruit has been plucked for smarter cities. Urban budgets are always under stress, and analysis takes time and money.Smart cities aren’t IoT sensors for everything on every corner all of the time. They aren’t just dumb CCTV cameras everywhere providing post facto blame allocation for crimes and accidents. Sensors are just the start. And it’s possible to overload the limited analysis bandwidth we have available with too much data.Most of us are living with evidence of smart cities under our eyes. We just don’t realize it.
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