Wb 11 2011-2021: Fill & Download for Free

I shall first talk about Uttar Pradesh.BJP was founded in 1980. BJP contested it's first election in UP in 1980 itself but in this 425 member assembly got only 11 seats which improved marginally to 16 seats in 1985. Those days Congress was the ruling party in UP.Allegations of scandal in purchase of Bofors guns resulted in the emergence of Janata Dal which ousted Congress both from the Centre and UP in 1989.Subsequently, in order to consolidate it's electoral gains Janata Dal resorted to Mandal politics. BJP countered with Ram Janmabhoomi agitation. In 1991 UP assy election BJP got absolute majority by winning 221 seats out of 425 and formed its first Government in UP.In the aftermath of Babri structure demolition BJP government was dismissed.In subsequent elections BJP could not again form the government. It's vote share also started going down in successive elections. By 2012 BJP's vote share was just 15%.The advent of Modi in Central politics saw a resurgence of BJP. After forming the Central Govt in 2014 Modi launched several welfare schemes all over India for the deprived class. This had a positive impact on UP too. In 2017 Assy election BJP got 312 seats (out of 403).Next UP election is due in 2022 and BJP is expected to win the same convincingly.Now West Bengal.In WB Assy elections BJP had drawn a blank till 2011 with vote share in the range 5–10%. In 2016 BJP got 3 seats with a vote share of 10%. In 2019 WB Lok Sabha election BJP surprised everyone by winning 18 Lok Sabha seats as against 22 of TMC!Next Assy election is due in 2021. BJP is expected to do well. But we have seen that normally Assy elections do not replicate Lok Sabha.Popularity of BJP has grown both in UP and WB on account of substantial work done over the years by Modi Government through various welfare schemes particularly for the deprived class.

On the day of November 11th 2020 post the Bihar election results which I had got it right by a whisker I started a Twitter thread on Bengal saying Trinamool would win 152 seats and form the Government in 2021. But much water has flown down the Hoogly river in the last 50 days.BJP had done the homework well but that turning point was not happening in favour of BJP. There was anger on the streets against Mamata but the biggest question was how could the BJP consolidate the anger not just into votes but also into seats. That is where Mamata started to dig her own grave. Giving prominence to her nephew and putting all eggs on the basket of Prasanth Kishore had alienated some of the powerful leaders of Trinamool. I had predicted by 13/11/2020 that a mouth-watering moment is waiting for BJP with a storm brewing over the dissent by Suvendhu Adhikari.The way Adhikari’s dissent was handled by TMC leaders was absolutely churlish to say the least. BJP itself was finding it difficult to touch the magical figure of 148 at Bengal assembly and Adhikari by himself could never dream of dislodging Trinamool but the coming together of Adhikari to BJP was the tipping point. Adhikari not only wields influence in in the 16 seats of his home district Midnapore but his sway extends over 7 to 8 districts. He can make a difference in over 40+ seats if not more.Amit Shah clinched what can be termed as the moment of reckoning by inducting Suvendhu Adhikari personally in his presence into the party. With his entry not has BJP got a credible local Bengali firebrand face but also got the momentum in its favour. Suvendhu is fast turning out to be similar to Himanta Dada in Assam. His rhetoric and ability to articulate in Bengali by highlighting the colossal failures of the TMC Government is turning out to be a gamechanger for BJP. We can see jitters in the TMC camp and as we move along we could see several more desertions from TMC to BJP in Bengal.Seats which BJP could have lost by wafer thin margins are now coming into BJP’s kitty. With Owaisi throwing his hat into the ring Mamata cannot be the sole owner of the minority vote which would get cut by MIM albeit in a small manner.There are several people who are apprehensive of violence and booth capturing by the ruling Trinamool but I am of the firm opinion that no party can capture or hold on to power in India through these nefarious methods anymore. India is not the same what we had seen in 1980’s and 1990’s when we could see large scale booth capturing and thereby winning elections.We often term in politics that it all depends on who makes the last mistake and now series of blunders are committed by TMC which can be seen from the tone, tenor and body language of the CM. Some opinion polls are giving a decisive majority to BJP and I would not be surprised if we see BJP touching 200 seats in Bengal although many pollsters are giving BJP a range from 135 to 175 seats.As long as BJP goes about doing its job in a diligent manner and ensure that Core Hindu voters who are fed up with TMC, INC & Left turn up to the polling booths and cast their votes then it is going to be Saffron Flag flying high in Bangla. Yes there are 57 seats in Bengal which has over 40% Muslim population but I am sanguine that Bengalis are looking for a real change after the failed promise of Paribartan by Mamata in 2011 which should also see counter polarisation of Hindu votes in favour of BJP.The verdict of Bengal has always been decisive and hence I expect a Tsunami for BJP in West Bengal in 2021. In the words of Dr. Praveen Patil, “Late Shyam Prasad Mukherji should be smiling from somewhere in the skies seeing the saffron surge in Bengal.”The prophecy of Ex-Governor of Nagaland and Former Director of Intelligence Bureau Shyambhal Dutta who said years ago, “Bengal will take to BJP to such heights which like no other state does.” That moment is coming true and West Bengal is all set to become a next Saffron State by May 2021.

Mamata Banerjee, a crap out of a politician and the most foul-mouthed and insolent politician these days… This lady emerged as a saviour to the people of West Bengal in 2011 elections, after defeating the communists. But let me tell you that after coming in power, she chose the easy way and conceived the pre-dominant communist ideology of politics deep rooted in Bengal's heart…Now, if didi lose more than expected seats in LS elections ’19 to BJP then, following things will happen -Opposition's suspicion about defect in EVMs will strengthen badly, and we'll witness them shouting like crazy.TMC will lose the faith of its supporters and party workers, leading to sharp decline in didi's popularity among the common people.Many sitting MLAs of TMC will shift to BJP before WB's assembly election in ‘21.Mamata will lose the almighty status and their will be voices raising against her in her own party.BJP will exert hardest of its effort in Bengal, making WB's present government very vulnerable. And, it won't be an amazement to see BJP emerging as larger party in WB in 2021, and forming the government.Goons of Mamata will leave TMC, and will be looking for something new to do.Congress will lose a strong ally from east, and 'll then slip down in a more pathetic condition.BJP in power will find it very hard to change the mindset of common public in Bengal, and to bring them back in mainstream and lead them to do something productive again.NRC will be implemented in West Bengal, and illegal Bangladeshi immigrants will be forced to leave.Demographic dividend of West Bengal will be changing drastically turning it into a better livable place and Hindus will be able live more peacefully then.Development will find its way in West Bengal, curbing out the widespread issue of unemployment there.And finally, all of us will read about a 'Didi' of Indian politics inscribed in the pages of history.Many people may find these points hypothetical, but let me tell you that if Didi lose to BJP this time then, all these will come up true.