Minnesota Part Year Resident Return: Fill & Download for Free

tl’dr: 14,000–110,000 infected; 700–7,000 dead, primary infections only.Update Sept 8: Research study suggests over a quarter of a million new COVID-19 cases including secondary and tertiary infections. $12.2 billion in health costs.counties that contributed the highest inflows of Sturgis attendees saw COVID-19 cases rise by 10.7 percent following the Sturgis event relative to counties without any detected attendees.http://ftp.iza.org/dp13670.pdf?fbclid=IwAR3-R6I7p_VcdgeDXRTeedGyRpkA3AtlArzFA3ez7zqoFcl7XZf_jgGGYtUI’ve been studying and writing about the Sturgis event, partly because of my background building the most sophisticated pandemic management solution in the world, partly because I’ve been a motorcyclist on and off for most of my life, and partly because Sturgis is so interestingly intersectional.What states are most people attending the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally coming from?Is Sturgis turning into a MAGA rally?What is the epidemiological science behind BLM and Antifa riots and protests not being considered viral "superspreader" events, while the Sturgis motorcycle rally is considered a viral "superspreader" event?460,000 people attended Sturgis, and likely every state in the USA had participants there.R0, or the transmission rate, for COVID-19 depends on what measures people take to prevent transmission. The reason why Sturgis was so important in this regard was the lack of physical distancing and the lack of masking. The compounding factor is the long distances to and from Sturgis that attendees traveled, effectively creating a spiderweb of transmission throughout the USA. Every gas station, rest stop, camp ground and hotel in every direction from Sturgis is a transmission opportunity, and when the people get home from their vacation in South Dakota and resume their lives, it’s more.Scientists are still trying to figure out the R0 accurately, simply because there are innumerable people who caught mild cases of it, often spreading it to others. Unless contact tracing tracks through everyone in the path, and everyone is tested, many cases are not proven.The science is settling in on 15 minutes of close contact with an infected person being the threshold for a high likelihood of transmission. Hanging out talking with someone about your bike, having a beer together, grabbing a burger or getting out on the dance floor all count.It’s very early days, but there are already 22 proven cases related to Sturgis, and an employee at one of the main bars was infected. We’re under the 10 days normal period, so this is the early part of the infection curve, and we have barely begun.Update: A tattoo artist at the rally has also tested positive.Update: Aug 22 saw 251 confirmed cases of COVID in South Dakota, the state Sturgis is in. This is higher than their previous one day count in May of 249 cases. Aug 21 was 193 cases, fourth highest this year. Too early to be all statistical, but my assumption is that this is a trend and SD will be a major hotspot.Update: Aug 24: “Health departments in four states, including South Dakota, Minnesota, Nebraska and Wyoming, have reported a total of 81 cases among people who attended the rally. South Dakota health officials said Monday they had received reports of infections from residents of two other states — North Dakota and Washington.”Update Aug 26: Now eight states with 103 COVID-19 cases linked to Sturgis: Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, and Washington.Update Aug 31: Over 100 cases have now been linked to a single concert event in Sturgis, the Smash Mouth-headed concert.Update Sept 1: 263 confirmed cases linked to Sturgis in 12 states, with terrible contact tracing and poor isolation standards. Tons more in reality.Update Sept 3: First COVID-19 death of Sturgis attendee, in Minnesota.My guess is that 20–40% of the people who attended Sturgis likely had at least one transmission event, so about 90,000–180,000 people came in contact with someone infected. The contagiousness of the disease suggests that 5–10% of those people might become infected.4,600–37,000 attendees might be infected.For those people, they’ll likely transmit the disease to another couple of people each (R0=2) as they travel back home and wander around.Update: Aug 25 from Fox News. “He had visited a bar where health authorities later issued warnings — One-Eyed Jack's Saloon — but said he had not had any COVID-19 symptoms. He discussed quarantining with his wife after he returned, but decided against it.”So that’s 9,000 to 74,000 people in the direct transmission, not counting follow-on transmissions by the newly infected.That’s a total of 14,000 to 110,100 infected, not counting the next steps.And the infection fatality rate is around 0.1% for everyone, but it climbs rapidly as people age. Over 45 through end of life, mortality median is about 6.5%. Obesity and other pre-existing conditions increase it as well. Sturgis skewed old. The average age of a Harley-Davidson owner a few years ago was 51, and they haven’t become younger. So 5% to 6.5% for the potential fatality rates is not unreasonable.So that’s about 700–7,000 fatalities due to Sturgis.And mostly because of partisan idiocy about basic science.Note: first version I missed a calculation step and didn’t add the R0=2 infections to the base infections, but just used the R0=2 infections. Fixed in this version.

Have you been here?We have two seasons, winter and construction. Winter starts promptly on the night of the 30th of October, just in time for the kids to freeze on Halloween. It generally dies out sometime in early May, but makes a last-ditch comeback in time to ruin the Memorial Day weekend.In the remaining 4 months, though, Michigan is really lovely. What with the potholes, the construction, the traffic, and the return of our state birdfrom its long hibernation, it’s a veritable paradise!So many Michiganians move to Florida for part (or all) of the year that, in any given retirement community down there, you’re likely to find a Michiganian in the first 2 minutes of asking.This is just a short list of the many reasons why Michigan was the only state to lose population in the 2010 census.All kidding aside, the weather here isn’t that bad (we could be Minnesota), but it isn’t great. A lot of businesses have moved out or closed up shop, too. Where the jobs go, so go the people. Someday we’ll see a resurgence in Michigan again, and with it, a corresponding population boom.And, when that day comes, new residents across the state will move in to their new homes in June, cut the grass, sit in the driveway sipping iced tea and say “You know, it’s really lovely here.”Until November. Then, they’ll say what we all say, “Why did anyone ever move here???”

I grew up in a small town in Minnesota and always aspired to live in Minneapolis.The town I grew up in, Northfield, had 5,000 residents which included two colleges - Carleton and St. Olaf. Northfield may have been small, but a good percent of the population have advanced degrees and have traveled the world. As such, Northfield didn't feel like typical agrarian-based small town.I lived in Minneapolis for about 20 years and could not have been happier. I loved the feel and the vibe of Minneapolis. It felt hip compared to St. Paul and most other cities in the Midwest. Outside of Chicago, Minneapolis was "the place" between New York and LA. It has a large and diverse base of residents, art, businesses, cultures, housing, recreation, eating establishments, and nightlife. In short, it had everything a single professional could ask for. And to be fashionable, I too looked down on St. Paul as a dowdy neighbor that we tolerate but don't often visit.St. Paul was perceived as rough, uneducated, no nightlife, roll up the sidewalks at 5 pm, hard to get around (no ordering of street names or numbers), and a less-than-desirable place to work and/or live.Then I married, moved to St. Paul (she had a nicer house and didn't want to live in Minneapolis), and thought my life was over. Moving from Minneapolis to St. Paul (literally a stone throw away from Minneapolis) was hard on me. It felt like going down-market and I might never return to the city I loved so much.After a year in St. Paul, with a fantastic view of Minneapolis across the river, we sold the house and moved deeper into St. Paul. I dreaded the thought. When I could see Minneapolis from the front door I felt like part of me was still in Minneapolis.Now I feel like a fool for falling so deeply in love with Minneapolis. She was my first love - hip, wild, exciting, raucous, and lively - but not my last love.You couldn't drag me out of St. Paul. This is home and the feeling you get when you find "that place" is embedded so deep in me that I know I'll never leave. I still like and enjoy Minneapolis, it's a great city, truly, but I've found a new home. So sorry.St. Paul feels like a small, comfortable town. It resonates with my upbringing. I've gotten to know more neighbors in 2 years than I did in 20 years in Minneapolis. People grow up here and stay here. The average home owner in our neighborhood has lived in the same house for more than 20 years - that's an amazingly stable neighborhood. The people we bought our house from built it in 1940 and lived there for 70+ years.Some areas are rough but it's not knife-and-gun rough. It's more like it's been here 100 years and that's what old age looks like. Rough in St. Paul is eco cars, motor scooters, ethnic takeout food, crumbling sidewalks, empty lots, and old houses.There is more nightlife in St. Paul than there was years ago, but frankly, I'm past those days. The nightlife we enjoy is 50 neighbors coming over the 2nd Thursday of each month for Thirsty Thursdays - more comradery and laughter than I have ever known.There are still perceptions of St. Paul that are reality. A lot of public places are deserted after 5 pm, you'll get lost if you don't know street names by heart (in Minneapolis avenue names are alphabetical A-Z and streets are numbered), we don't like strangers driving through neighborhoods, and we like it that you think St. Paul is dowdy.St. Paul is that unique nexus of a small town and a big city that feels like it hangs on the precipice between the two. Time goes slowly here, we know the neighborhood and our neighbors, and life is just a little bit sweeter here than it is elsewhere.If your excitement comes externally you won't like St. Paul. It's just not who we are. If you're comfortable with yourself and you know who you are, then we welcome you with open arms to a new beginning.