Dh 429: Fill & Download for Free

Updating my answer:It looks like Jason McDonald was right, and I was wrong!But here was my thinking (note date).(Dating this for future sake: 3.19.13).Statistically, as @RexMadden notes, it's about 7% likely.And you have to keep in mind that Jeter turns 39 on June 26th; he's coming off a major injury (ankle fracture); and he plays a position where players rarely age well (shortstop).But I believe Jeter has a MUCH better chance than that to pull this off.Here's why. Jeter is a darn near stat clone for Rose through age-38 seasons.Which would make him about 50-50 to pull this off.Don't believe me?I didn't believe this either until I did some digging.Jeter needs 952 hits to tie Rose (4256); he needs 888 to tie Cobb (4192).It's remarkable how close Jeter and Rose are as hitters over their full careers:Jeter's career line: .313 BA .383 OBP .448 SLG .831 OPSRose's career line: .309 BA .375 OBP .409 SLG .784 OPSBut here's the fun part: it is much, much, much closer than that.Because what you need to compare are not the FULL careers of the players, but rather, what each player had accomplished through his age-38 season (which Jeter just finished).And the results of that comparison blew my mind.Rose badly damaged his career stats over his final seven seasons as he chased the hits title. From age 39-45, Rose went 991-3603 for a .275 average, and slugged under .350 as his power (such as it was) disappeared entirely.Wipe those years away, and compare apples to apples through age 38, and here is Jeter vs. Rose:Jeter: 3304 hits, .313 BA .383 OBP .448 SLG .831 OPSRose: 3265 hits .312 BA .382 OBP .436 SLG .818 OPSAre you kidding me?Doesn't get much closer than that, folks. The distribution dffers (Jeter hits more HR; Rose more 2B and 3B); but the output is scary similar.Both men had a great age-38 season:Here's Rose at 38: .331/ .418 / .430 / .848 208 HITSHere's Jeter at 38: .313/ .362 / .429 / .791 216 HITSRose never hit those marks again.Will Jeter? Any season of excellence from here forward makes him MUCH more likely to run down Rose.Now consider:Jeter's 216 hits last year led the majorsJeter was a VERY productive hitter last year: .313/.362/.429/.791Jeter has never failed to exceed the league OBP average in a single season of his career - meaning he still helps the lineup a lot, especially at SSIn other words:He does the most important offensive thing in baseball: He gets on baseHe does this at a position where few people do itHis 18th year stat line (above) wasn't far off his career stat line of .313/.383/.448/.831 (Derek Jeter)Now think about this:He's the purest hero of the steroid eraHe won five titles -- he's a link to the NYY championship pastHe's an icon and a fan favorite -- for a team tainted by players like Giambi and A-Rod and Clemens in recent years.And the fact the steroid era is over means SS are not banging 30 HR a year, anymore -- and Jeter won't need to do that to stay in the lienup at S, DH, 1B or LF in years to comeLet's say Jeter hits .285 this season with 180 hits -- numbers he actually is likely to exceed.Are you really telling me this guy -- who would be about 770 hits short of Rose at that point -- isn't EXACTLY the type of motivated athlete who might stick it out to go get that record?Jeter likely needs six years to get 952 hits. But keep in mind: He may play SS for only one or two of them, since he has the designated hitter (DH) in the AL available to him.Also keep in mind:The Yankees farm system is terribleOn the big club, the team may try to void A-Rod or dump his contract, which could make 3B availableIt's also possible Jeter could move to say, LF, with Gardner moving to centerand Granderson leaving after the 2012-13 season.I'm not saying the Yankees are going to pay Jeter $15mm a year for the foreseeable future.But could he be an iconic $8-10mm player for the next six years in NY?You bet.There is little chance Jeter would hang on as say a .240 hitter to chase the hits record. He's got too much class and pride to cheapen the record.But he's a .313 hitter who banged out a league leading 216 hits last season. So he's got a ways to fall before he isn't productive enough to help the Yankees lineup.One final point: If the Yankees collapse, and fall to non-contender status, I don't think Jeter stays around. With the age of this team -- Jeter, Rivera, Pettitte and Kuroda are all 38 or older, and A-Rod, Granderson, Tex, Sabbathia, and others are 30+, so -- it's possible the Yankees could collapse under the weight of age this season.But could Jeter stay productive on decent to good Yankee teams for the next six seasons, as a supporting player? It's at least plausible.It's also helpful that Jeter doesn't walk much -- he's never walked 100 times in a season (91 is a career high, Rose did it just once, btw).Plus, as a leadoff man, on a power offense, he has over 780 plate appearances last year -- walking just 45 times. If he gets to hack 730+ times a year, 200 hits are attainable - he'd only need to hit around .275 to do it.I think Jeter is actually going to make a very real run at Rose -- and if he can get to 4,000 hits (and be only the third player to get that many), it's hard to imagine he won't stick around to finish the job.Betting against Derek Jeter has rarely turned out well.

Right now? Right at this moment? One that I haven’t read online but discovered myself?In the AL Division Series against the New York Yankees, the Boston Red Sox had 115 PA without runners in scoring position (RISP) and hit .238 / .304 / .362. Typical numbers for a lineup facing an elite pitching staff.They had 47 PA with RISP and hit .400 / .489 / .629.Sabermetric wisdom says that splits like this have no predictive value at all. Even my groundbreaking study proving that some hitters actually did hit better or worse with runners on base over the course of a career found that maybe one guy on each team had that skill (or lack of it). A whole team going crazy in the clutch over just 47 PA? Meaningless. Everyone knows that.So when they went on to the Championship Series to face the Houston Astros, armed with what many metrics showed as the best pitching staff in the DH era, there was no way anything like that would happen again, correct?They had 146 PA without RISP in the ALCS and hit .201 / .267 / .299. Exactly the sort of domination expected at the hands of the great Astros’ staff.They had 50 PA with RISP and hit .342 / .500 / .684.Seriously.And the improvement in RISP hitting against the Astros is actually greater than it looks. The only two intentional walks were issued by the Yankees, so the Sox’ increase in patience against Houston was actually much more dramatic. The Yankees’ Brett Gardner could have caught Ian Kinsler’s RBI 2B in the 3d inning of game 4, while the only two great plays with RISP against the Sox were by the Astros: Tony Kemp robbing Steve Pearce in left-center in the 3rd inning of game 3, and of course Josh Reddick robbing Mookie Betts with the bases full to end the top of the 9th of game 5.The best thing is that, beginning tonight we get to find out if they can do this again!Update: Through 4 games of the WS, the Sox are .184 / .261 / .280 in 138 PA without RISP, and .355 / .474 / .581 in 38 PA with.Postseason RISP with 2 out is now .429 / .569 / .796 in 65 PA.WS game 1: an uncharacteristic .333 / .391 / .429 in 23 PA without RISP, .333 / .467 / .583 in 15 PA with RISP. On the post-season, they are now .333 / .453 / .542 in 64 PA with RISP and less than 2 out, and .405 / .542 / .784 in 48 PA with RISP and 2 out.WS game 2: .240 / .240 / .320 in 25 PA without RISP, .333 / .500 / .333 in 8 PA with.WS game 3: .137 / .228 / .193 in 57 PA without RISP, 0/6, IBB with. All but one of the latter PA’s came in extra innings when the team would have ordinarily been sound asleep (midnight to 3 AM via jet lag).WS game 4: And in case you think the last was a lame excuse, in game 4 they were .107 / .242 / .250 in 33 PA without RISP and 5/7, 2B, HR, IBB (.714 / .750 / 1.286) with.

In my opinion, YES! He should be inducted into the HoF. Being a DH most of his life is what have made the way difficult for him.Being a DH should not be a reason to keep someone out of the HoF. If that is going to be the case, David Ortiz would not be inducted neither. Martinez took 72% of his plate appearances as a DH, while David Ortiz took 88%.Martinez has a career WAR better than the average hall of famers.The 1995 season began a seven-year stretch in which Martinez hit a combined .329/.446/.574 and averaged 42 doubles, 28 homers, 107 walks and 5.8 WAR per year (40.7 total). He led the AL in on-base percentage again in 1998 (.429) and 1999 (.447) after finishing second with even higher figures in 1996 (.464, behind Mark McGwire’s .467) and 1997 (.4558 to Thomas’s .4561), and placed third in OPS+ three straight times (1996-1998) before falling to fifth or sixth in the next three seasons. During that span, he was the second-best hitter in baseball, at least based on the batting component of WAR; his 380 runs above average trailed only Barry Bonds’ 443.From: JAWS and the 2019 Hall of Fame Ballot: Edgar MartinezLook at this comparison with Hall of FamersNow let’s compare Edgar Martinez to David Ortiz who is a future Hall of Famer and was a DH most of his life.David Ortiz:.286/.380/.55255.4 rWAR | 50.7 fWAR141 OPS+140 wRC+.392 wOBAEdgar Martinez:.312/.418/.51568.3 rWAR | 65.5 fWAR147 OPS+147 wRC+.405 wOBADon’t get me wrong. Ortiz also did big things like hitting more than 500 HR, but he also had 1,400+ more at bats than Edgar.In 2003, Mariano Rivera was asked about how good was Martinez performance against him. Mariano replied: “He had more than my number. He had my breakfast, lunch, and dinner. He got everything from me”. In 16 at-bats, Edgar had 10 hits, including three doubles and two home runs. He has six RBIs in his time against Mo.In addition, Martinez was selected in 7 ASG, won 5 Silver Slugger Awards, 2-Time Batting Champ, 3X OBP leader, 2X leader in doubles, 1-Time in OPS+, 1-Time in Runs and 1-Time in RBIs.In 162 Game Average, Martinez had: 177 Hits, 96 Runs, 41 Doubles, 24 HR, 99 RBI, 101 BB.For me… a Hall of Famer!