Main Ideas And Supporting Details 1 Name: Fill & Download for Free

This approach will help you think of a solid startup idea.It is broken into 5 steps to facilitate progress through a system that in total should take about 30-40 hours to complete over a week or two, if you do it all.Add rigor and discipline to your brainstorming and idea evaluation process:Build lists of potential customer types and business or pricing models.Evaluate the opportunities where these lists overlap.Then, exit your ivory tower and evaluate the top ideas with real potential users, customers, or suppliers.This will improve your likelihood of success and waste less time down the road, even if you pivot from your original idea.Preface: There certainly are simpler answers like, “pick an area that is trending”, “look for a large market that hasn’t changed in 10 years”, or “convert your hobby into a business”. Unfortunately those aren’t particularly helpful, and since this question comes up often in discussions, I wanted to get my thoughts down in a more comprehensive way. I’m sure Quora will have some good feedback for me :)Also, while this answer covers the ideation part of the journey, keep in mind that implementing the idea is the hard part.Three primary paths to a new business idea1. The spontaneous idea: It hits you when you’re in the shower, driving in your car, talking with friends, or doodling during a meeting. The dots suddenly connect in a new way and you have an epiphany...your sudden insight is surprising and exciting, and the value of this new idea seems obvious. You can’t believe nobody else has thought of it before!So you go online and poke around...and...most of the time it turns out that someone has thought of it before. But, you still might be able to do it better...so you keep thinking about it and a day passes, and you start to realize some problems. You share it with a few trusted friends and get feedback about a lot of things you hadn’t thought of yet (e.g., nobody pays for it, it’s a tiny market, etc.). It could turn out to be a great idea, but you don’t know, you have a good job, and it is uncharted territory...so you let the dream slowly die away. Cheer up, that was probably the right decision.2. The insider idea: Maybe you’ve spent the last 7 years building enterprise software for airlines and you’ve noticed some voids in the product stack or issues with how your company brings it to market. You point these deficiencies out to your bosses, but there are other company priorities and nothing changes. Or, say your company pays vendors a lot of money to do some work, but nobody ever seems happy with the results....and you see a way to do it better for less. Or, maybe you witnessed your company kill an amazing new product or feature not because testing didn’t show user interest, but for political or organizational reasons.You see an opportunity to do it on your own, so you start moonlighting on a solution. You gather more specific information, talk to trusted co-workers and industry contacts, and determine the viability of solving the problem. The good thing is, you’re already knowledgeable and well positioned/networked in the business space...so good luck to you!3. The deliberate idea: In this case, you aren’t starting with a business idea. Instead, you’re starting with a desire to create a new business and become an entrepreneur. You may be ready to quit your job and go for it whole-hog, or just start it on the side of your desk...but you’re looking for the right business idea to pursue (which could be a business related to your work environment or industry, as in #2).While the first two paths may happen unintentionally, the third is for people who know they want to start a company, but don't yet have their idea. If you fall into the third group, then this answer is for you.#3 The Deliberate IdeaIdeation is fun and freeing, but it is the easy part of the process. Execution of your idea separates the wheat from the chaff and is where most people fail. That said, coming up with the right idea will improve your odds of successful execution. This system will help you do that well.Step 1 - Decide what is your primary motivation or personal goal for starting this (1 hour)For example, do you want a:Fun or hobby based business (e.g., making bracelets to sell on Etsy (product))Part-time lifestyle business that could become full time (e.g., running a wine-investment club)Full-time startup hoping for acquisition exit in 3-5 years (e.g., It’s like Airbnb (product) for fish, get it?)Large, cash-flow positive business (e.g., B2B furniture import and delivery business)Path to industry credibility and networking over financial gain (e.g., scriptwriting peer-training exchange for aspiring comedy writers)Create a new spreadsheet and write down your goal in the first tab. It may seem like overkill now, but if you take a break from this project you’ll want to be able to have it as a frame of reference when picking it back up.Step 2 - Frame the problem (2 hours)If you try to just write down a list of ideas from scratch, you’ll probably be underwhelmed with the results. You’ll likely hit a block after a handful of ideas, and what you come up with will be based on your predispositions...i.e., if you are a gamer, you’ll have ideas for games. If you work in cloud computing, you’ll have ideas for new approaches, etc. This isn’t a bad thing, but it is limiting.Instead, make a deliberate effort to facilitate your own brainstorming.In the spreadsheet you created in step 1, create a new sheet and type out a list of 15-20 different categories of customer/audience types in the first column. Don’t start with the usual demographic descriptions like, “18-35 year olds in urban environments making over $100k per year”. Instead, use descriptive phrases that represent specific groups of consumers and/or businesses with unique challenges and needs. These tend to be easier to conceptualize so they are more useful and helpful for generating ideas.Start with some that relate to your personal interests, hobbies, experience or professional network, but don't limit yourself to them. Some examples include retail insurance agents, cyclical dieters, ex-pats in Asia, news junkies, people that eat out 3+ times per week, new college grads, stay-at-home mothers, winemakers, startup founders raising money, youth sports teams, companies at trade shows, wedding planners, gamers, health nuts, software development agencies, etc. If you’re having trouble coming up with enough, broaden to specific industries, e.g., public transportation, dating, real estate, etc. If you’re going after a specific geography, call it out (e.g., ex-pats in Asia).Next, along the first row of your spreadsheet, type the business or pricing models (i.e., the type of business) that you could apply to these customers/audiences. There’s no exact right or wrong approach, and I’m using the term “business model” very liberally here. Not all models will apply to each group and some overlap is okay. Remember, you’re doing this to help you brainstorm and compare new business ideas, not to become an expert on business models.For example, subscriptions, product bundling, risk management/insurance, auctions, resale/classifieds, peer-to-peer exchanges, outsourcing non-core functions, freemium, advertising-supported content, new product development, after-sale care, daily deals (discounted pre-sale), collaborative consumption (think AirBnB), rapid evaluation/matching (e.g., Tinder), sales channel innovation, lead generation and referrals, marketplace, brokerage, BI/CI solutions, community, etc. (more here: TechCrunch business models)Step 3 - Generate ideas (4-6 hours)Your spreadsheet is now a grid with customer/audience types down the side and business/pricing models across the top. Each box where the two lists overlap is a place to brainstorm ideas. Go through each square in this grid. You can dismiss many of the boxes in a few seconds (e.g., Business Intelligence for stay-at-home moms?), but it is worth giving each consideration as you’ll inevitably come up with ideas you didn’t expect.The easiest way to do this is go column by column. Pick a business or pricing model, think of a few existing businesses that use it, and spend 5 minutes reading about them to get your head into that space. Then, apply it to each potential customer or audience group: how could it fit? What are their priorities, what gets in their way, where are they wasting time or money, what do they depend upon? Browse discussion forums where they participate or are discussed. See what they care about, what people complain about. Search online for other companies that already compete to offer them products and services. What are they?Your pass through the first column will take the most time, because you're learning about each of the 15-20 customer types as you go. It speeds up after that.Each time you come up with a keeper, type it into the corresponding box. For example, providing after-sale customer management for retail insurance agents? Or, a debt auction business for startups looking to raise seed funding? Type it in.Note: You may have 2+ ideas in a box. To add a new line inside of a cell type Alt-Enter for Excel on PC, Option-Command-Enter for Excel on Mac, Ctrl-Enter for Google Docs on MacTry to come up with at least 6 solid ideas. Then, create another tab in your spreadsheet and list all of your ideas there. In addition to writing down the ideas themselves, you should state the goal, audience(s), and model(s) for each one. These will change over time, but it is good to start grounded with something you can work-back towards.Step 4 - Evaluate ideas and narrow it down (3 hours)The next step is to evaluate your list of 6+ ideas against a set of criteria that will help you narrow down to the most promising three. For example:Heat in this space: E.g., Some answers on QuoraYour experience and connections: Do you have experience in this industry or with similar businesses? Are you well connected with friends or family that operate in this space? Any advantages, or disadvantages?Alignment with goals: How well does this align to your original goal? Are the upfront capital costs compatible with the level of investment you want to make in this business?Market opportunity: How big is this market and how unique or differentiated is your approach? Consider competition here, but don’t be discouraged by the presence of competition. It is validation that the space is interesting. Also, there are plenty of companies have come along and disrupted markets that others had written off as already solved, like:Google ... after Altavista, Metacrawler, Lycos, etc.Facebook ... after Friendster, MySpaceUber ... after Yellow cab, black car services, etc.Gmail ... after AOL, Yahoo!, Hotmail, etc.iPhone ... after Blackberry, Palm, Windows MobileFlipboard, Wavii, Zite, Pulse, Prismatic, etc. ... after Yahoo!, AOL, MSN, CNNYou probably don’t have time to really deep-dive on 10 ideas, so getting this narrowed down is both science and art. What does your gut tell you, what would be fun, where are you most comfortable and confident?OPTIONAL STEP: To add more science try quantifying some of these criteria.To do this, add a column to the Ideas tab, one for each criterion. Then, for each new column score your ideas from 1-5, with 5 being the best. So, for “Alignment with my goal”, a 5 means it aligns perfectly, and a 1 means it doesn’t align at all (e.g., your goal is to create a fun hobby business, but the idea is to sell offshore development services to technology companies in the US).Don’t worry if you aren’t sure whether something is a 3 or a 4, just go with your gut or do 5 minutes of online research. Keep moving forward, don't get stuck here bogged down in the weeds.When you’re finished, add up the scores and sort your list by the sum of these scores. In theory, the higher the score, the more interesting the idea should be to you.When you’re done evaluating your ideas run them by a couple of trusted friends, and narrow it down to the three that seem most promising. If you do the optional scoring step, don’t feel like you must pick the three that scored highest.Note - we could have used these criteria earlier in step 2 to narrow down the list of audiences and business/pricing models, but that would have limited the creative process too far upstream (i.e., before the brainstorming process), so I suggest waiting.Step 5 - Deep dive on those 3 ideas (20-30 hours over a week or two)Congratulations, you have come up with 3 solid ideas! Now it’s time to step out of your ivory tower and start getting street-level information and feedback. There are three basic steps for doing this (i.e., 5_a, _b, and _c) that are general enough to apply to most types of ideas.A quick aside: at this point people ask, "If I share my idea with a lot of people, won't someone steal it?" The answer is possibly, but unlikely. As previously mentioned, there are a lot of startup ideas but few people with the time, energy, or know-how to implement them. The benefits of getting good feedback early on outweigh the risk that someone will steal it. So, don't tell people that won't benefit you, and avoid telling direct competitors that are in a position to do it themselves, or to block you from doing it, but generally don't worry. Related questions / blog posts:Will a VC or Angel steal my idea?How can I be sure people won't steal my idea during a pitch?Will anyone steal my startup idea?Why you shouldn’t keep your startup idea secret5_a. Get smart(er) (6-8 hours)You will be able to evaluate and refine your ideas 10x faster by engaging in discussions with real potential customers, users, and partners. But, if you go into these unprepared you’ll wind up asking the wrong questions, sounding out of place, and wasting your opportunity and their time.So, before you invest in surveys, coffee shop chats, or informational meetings, you need to get up to speed on the basics of the industry you are targeting. If you gave yourself a 5 in the “Experience and connections” category in Step 4, you can skip this. If not, invest 2-3 hours per idea.Note - throughout this process you should take detailed notes. Create a new tab for each of your ideas, or an entirely new document; doesn’t really matter as long as you can write stuff down. Track who you've spoken with, emailed, feedback, etc. Trust me, you will be glad that you wrote this all down.This will probably take a couple of days. At minimum I would:Call up or email savvy friends and family to get their thoughts (LinkedIn is a great tool for this).Give them the 10,000 foot view of your idea and ask for their opinion. (Take good notes on or right after the call; do not trust your memory for this.)Ask them what they think is the biggest problem with it, otherwise they might just say nice things.If they’re in your industry then ask if they know of other companies in your space, what they think is broken, etc.Ask them who they would speak with if they had your idea. Ask if you can get informational interviews with those people.Talk to potential investors if possibleThey don’t have to be the people that will actually invest in your business, but at this step ideally you have a personal relationship with them. Position your conversation as looking for advice to make a decision, not their money.Anyone you know that does angel investing, VC, M&A, etc., will have a trained perspective.Do lots of online research. For example:Find out who competes in this space, and add them to your spreadsheet.Read their websites, watch their videos, and search for them together, e.g., “Windows AND Android AND iPhone”. These search queries surface articles and blog posts that analyze the broader industry, offering helpful perspective and discovery of competitors you missed. E.g., “Windows, Android and iPhone versus Blackberry”.Browse on Wikipedia to learn industry vocabulary and organization.Search Quora for questions about the industry or these competitors.Determine external dependenciesYou may need data. Is it available free or paid, or will you have to mine it yourself, etc.?Do you need any particular physical materials, machinery, etc. that are hard to come by?Will you require any permits or government approvals?Will you need to hire any specialists people that are particularly difficult to find and recruit?Expensive equipment?Will you need to raise a significant amount of outside funding just to get started b/c there are high capital costs?Etc.Now you are smart enough to have the intelligent conversations with people in your prospective industries, and you probably have also improved and refined your ideas. Woohoo, you’re getting closer to “the one”.At this point a lot of people would pick something and invest time in “creating” their business. I.e., set up a corporation, pick a name, secure a domain, design a logo, print business cards, figure out their title, etc. While these things feel like progress towards a “real company”, they are an unnecessary distraction at this point. It is much wiser to spend that energy on validation of your idea, like testing with real customers, meeting competitors, mocking up prototypes, etc.5_b. Talk to potential customers, competitors, and industry partners you don’t know personally (5-10 hours)Before you pour your heart and soul into a new venture, you should validate it outside of your friends and family circle. Is this solving a real issue for potential users or customers? Would they be willing to pay for it...or do businesses even have budget for what you’re offering? Again, the mechanics of this depend on the type of business idea that you have (e.g., starting a sandwich shop vs. office supply delivery vs. peer-to-peer insurance), but here are some general approaches that I would recommend.Run an online surveyQuick way to get a relatively large sample of answers from your target customers or audience.There are probably others, but Google Surveys is drop-dead simple to use and it allows you to easily limit responses to your target (e.g., people that buy life insurance).It’ll cost you a couple hundred bucks per survey. A cheap alternative is to post the concept on a discussion forum or Quora to get feedback.Talk with your potential customers/audienceIf you’re targeting consumers, figure out where they spend time and go there to ask them questions (e.g., certain neighborhoods or coffee shops, concerts, sporting events, conventions, etc.). If you end up in a coffee shop, print a sign for the back of your laptop that says “Your feedback on my idea for a free latte”!If you’re targeting B2C businesses, approach them as a customer, and ask them some questions. Buy something if they sell retail.If you’re targeting B2B businesses, email them or go to conferences that they attend, etc. Try to get an informational interview based on the premise that you’re working to improve the industry and do something valuable for them, so you need their expertise and advice. People like it when others ask for their ‘expertise’.Talk with suppliersThis is relatively easy, since you are a potential buyer and they will want your business.In a previous step you identified the external dependencies you’ll want to take, i.e., what you should buy vs. build, and some possible vendors. Get meetings with them.You need to verify your assumptions, and while a lot of the details will be available on their website, information about pricing, access restrictions, etc., is often not, so you’ll want to email or call them to get details.Try to speak to more than 1 provider for each item so you can compare prices and look for differences or similarities, which will tell you a lot about the industry.OPTIONAL - Start selling before you have anything to sellSome people call this doing a “smokescreen test”, and the mechanics of it really depend on the business idea. In many cases, it actually won’t be practical to do this until you are working on your final idea.B2C: If you’re targeting consumers you can do this via the Google or Facebook ad platforms.B2B: If businesses, then send a bunch of emails to potential customers (you can find them online) with a proposed offer and price...vary the price and offer details and keep track of how people respond (hopefully some do). see if you can get on the phone with one or two of them. Learn what questions they ask, what they push back on, if the price seems reasonable. If someone wants what you’re selling, then you may have your first customer if you can deliver something quickly (you won’t be the first to sell something before you own it...remember Bill Gates and IBM (company))5_c. Write abbreviated business plans (7-10 hours)We’ve spent a lot of time working on the individual components of each idea, and now it is time to step back and see the big picture. Bring your thinking and research together into a brief business plan for each idea that still appears to be worth pursuing. If it is obvious from the previous steps that that an idea isn’t going to work, drop it.Here’s a suggested outline. Try to limit it to be 2-3 pages, and no more than 3 hours per idea:Page 1One-line description of your idea:[Company] will <do, make, or provide> for <target audience or customer> so that <the value/outcome you bring>.Example: Lewis Industries will develop customer management software for automotive dealerships so that they can increase loyalty post-sale and sell more services and upgrades to consumers that buy vehicles.Description of your products and services: 150 word description of the problems you are addressing and the scenarios you will focus on first.Page 2How and when you monetize: Will you start as a free service for everyone, and hope to monetize later through premium offerings (freemium) or advertising (ad-supported)? Or, will you start charging immediately, or never? You won’t know for sure, but give your best guess.Distribution model: How will potential customers or users discover you? What marketing and/or partner channels do you plan to use?External dependencies: For what core things will you rely on others to provide, e.g., A database of all vehicle makes and models, and option packages since 1970? You should have this list from previous steps, and don’t worry about generic things (e.g., office space).Page 3Estimated cost to reach your Minimum Viable Product (MVP): Just try to get in the ballpark here. The main reason to figure this out during the ideation stage is that it will impact how you approach starting the business, which may or may not align with your goals. I.e., if you’re planning to build a Zipcar for trucks and need to raise $2 million for the vehicles, then you probably can’t do it as a lifestyle business off the side of your desk.What are the major external dependencies and how much will they cost (e.g., $20,000 for the automotive database)How much development and design do you need to do for this idea, any large capital costs (e.g., a fleet of trucks)?Here are some places to learn how to estimate these costs: Estimating startup costs for a new businesses (StartupNation), How to estimate the cost of starting a business from scratch (United States SBA), Estimate startup costs (Entrepreneur)Summary of idea’s strengths and weaknesses (1-2 sentences for each)Research: What did you learn from your survey, calls, emails and online research that supports or challenges this idea? E.g., Positive if 67% of people surveyed say they will pay $10 for this, less so if 4 of the 5 companies you spoke with have no interest in what you’re proposing.Industry/macro trends: Will you have a tailwind or a headwind doing this? List out the specifics (e.g., My largest customer, retirees, is estimate to grow at 10% per year for the next 20 years.)Your knowledge and connections: You'll have a good sense for this, but write it down anyways. E.g., I have spent 4 years working on software for this industry, and x, y, and z from college are potential buyers.Risks: Are you taking dependencies where the solution isn’t yet clear? How competitive is the market, and what advantages do competitors have...or, is competition not a deterrent for x reason?You could easily increase the scope of this business plan by an order of magnitude, and there are a dozen templates for this (Writing a Business Plan) or approaches to analyzing your ideas (e.g., SWOT analysis). The important thing is that you’re being honest and self-critical, because ultimately you are the one taking the risk.Step 6 - Pick the best idea and get startedIf after all of this digging you are still feeling really good about one of these ideas, then go for it...this is where the real work begins. You’re going to need to think about financing, hiring, networking, and business operations in addition to the fun part of actually building your product or service.That is for another post! In the meantime, here are some resources to help you on your way:First I'd sit back and read...Startups are roller-coasters that often end in failure...make sure that you know what you're getting yourself into! Check out Mashable’s post on Why 90% of Startups Fail, David Lee's on Why I Never Started My Own Company, and Dave McClure's slides and video about “Why not to do a startup”.Now, if you still want to do this, read Paul Graham 's essay on How to start a startup (he also has an interesting view on startup ideas)Next, grab a drink and read Quora's take on what first timers often miss - What first time entrepreneurs are blind toThen, Jimmy Wales' answer to how to contact him about a startup idea...it applies broadly to how you should contact a potential advisor or investor about their startup.Lastly, go up-vote something Ashton Kutcher wrote on Quora and ask Mark Zuckerberg a question that he won't answer...Congrats! You're half-way to a great startup (scene story for your friends). :-)Startup advice and storiesQuora questions - What is the hardest part about staring a company, Common mistakes made when starting a tech company, Top five things to remember whens starting a companyJames Altucher, TechCrunch - Should you start a company?Jason Goldberg, Betashop - 13 things you must do every week as a startup CEOSeth Sternberg, Meebo co-founder (acquired by Google since this article) - From nothing to something. How to get there.Ben Horowitz vs Fred Wilson - Ben posts (case for fat startup), Fred rebuts (fat not healthy), Ben rebuts (revenge of fat guy)Neil Patel, Geekwire - Wish I would have known before starting my own businessDane Carlson - 20 things not to do before starting a business (I agree with most of this, but not #1 if you can afford it)Scott Weiss, TechCrunch - The path to starting a startupJames Altucher, TechCrunch - What you can learn from Woody AllenErick Schonfeld (2006), 5 ways to start a company (without quitting your day job)ChecklistsRyan Roberts, Startup Lawyer - If I launched a startup (great cheat sheet)Quora - How do you start a companyForbes - 38 things to do when starting a business (non-tech)Fiverr (marketplace) - Startup checklist (non-tech, and website is a little kitschy with all the dashes, stars, and arrows in the text)Finance and LegalQuora - What questions do entrepreneurs want to ask venture investors most but are afraid to askUser-10887637379381104900 - So you want to raise seed capitalFred Wilson, AVC - Financing options for startups, Financing options: convertible debt (likely way you will raise your first round of angel/seed money)Ryan Roberts, Startup Lawyer - How convertile debt works, What type of entity should I form, What does a series A term sheet look likeMartin Kleppmann - Valuation caps on convertible notes explained with graphsOrrick - Startup toolkitBrad Feld, Foundry Group (venture capital firm) - Term sheet series wrap upHiringBabak Nivi, Venture Hacks - What does an employee offer letter look like, Questions recruits might ask Part I, Part IIRobert Scoble, Quora - How to avoid hiring the wrong people for your startupElad Gil, Elad blog - Hiring for cultural fitBlogs by entrepreneurs:Jason Goldberg - BetashopDanielle Morrill - Danielle Morrill’s blogMarco Arment - Marco.orgBen Milne - Ben Milne’s blogKate Kendall - Kate Kendall’s blogGuy Kawasaki - How to change the worldSeth Godin - Seth Godin’s blogSriram Krishnan - Sriram Krishnan’s blogPenelope Trunk - Penelope Trunk’s blogScott Adams - Dilbert blogNeil Patel - Quick SproutEric Ries - Startup Lessons LearnedSteve Blank - Steve Blank’s blogDharmesh Shah - OnStartupsQuora - Other startup founder blogsBlogs by VCs:Brad Feld (Foundry Group) - FeldThoughtsFred Wilson (Union Square Ventures) - AVCDave McClure (500 Startups) - Master of 500 hatsPaul Graham (Y Combinator +) - Paul Graham EssaysDavid Lee (SV Angel) - dasleeUser-10887637379381104900 (Andreessen Horowitz) - Chris Dixon’s blogJeff Bussgang (Flybridge Capital Partners) - Seeing Both SidesBen Horowitz (Andreessen Horowitz) - Ben’s blogJosh Kopelman (First Round Capital) - Redeye VCMike Hirshland (Resolute.VC, formerly Polaris Ventures) - VCMike’s BlogDavid Cowan (Bessemer Venture Partners) - Who has time for thisJalak Jobanputra (FuturePerfect Ventures) - The barefoot VCHoward Morgan (First Round Capital) - Way too ealryGreg Gottesman (Madrona Venture Partners) - Stark Raving VCDavid Skok (Matrix Partners) - For entrepreneursMark Suster (GRP Partners) - Both Sides of the TableOther blogsJared O'Toole and Matt Wilson - Under 30 CEOAnita Campbell - Small Business TrendsAndrew Chen - Andrew Chen’s blogCarson McComas, Work Happy blog for entrepreneursYoung Entrepreneur BlogHarvard Business Review Blog NetworkBusiness PunditQuora entrepreneurs to follow (there are a lot of ‘must follow’ lists of entrepreneurs on Quora, of which many aren’t very active. These people are)Wikipedia, Jimmy WalesCraigslist, Craig NewmarkBlippy and Adbrite, Philip KaplanVontu & Pipewise, Michael WolfeQuora & Facebook, Adam D'AngeloFriendster, Jonathan AbramsInstagram, Kevin SystromFoursquare, Dennis CrowleyPath, Dave Morin500 Startups, Dave McClureFacebook, Dustin MoskovitzMahalo, LAUNCH, & Weblogs, Jason CalacanisPayPal, David SacksEchoSign, Jason M. LemkinWavii, Adrian AounOther people’s listsRyan Spoon, Polaris Ventures - list of Quora threads for startupsOther resources:SBA (U.S. Small Business Administration)StartupNation (Source for Small Business Advice)Notes: I tried to use mostly plain-speak when writing this. There are a lot of opinions on vocabulary and the definition of business models, business plans, etc., so if you’re hung up on those details write your thoughts in the comments, but keep in mind that the nuances are less important than the spirit of applying some rigor to picking an idea.

When I read Suvorov for the first time, I believed in his version. The official Soviet version (we were always peaceful, we never wanted to attack) did not seem very credible to me. I sustained many emotional discussions with people who hated the very idea of Stalin’s Soviet Union being aggressive.However, when reading Suvorov again, I felt that his version is no more credible. Similar to the official Soviet historians, he artfully mixes real things with blatant lies and tries to get away with this. Highway tanks, swimming tanks, Hitler as a Moscow-led Socialist, etc. etc… Suvorov’s fans would say: Okay, these are minor details but wouldn’t you argue with the main idea? Sorry, I would. I don’t believe that the army prepared for an aggressive war could be so badly defeated in the first months after Hitler’s invasion.Finally, after reading many texts about this period, I’d like to single out one version that probably offers better explanation for Stalin’s policies that led to the war. It is the one expounded by the Russian historian Alexander Nemirovsky:In 1934–1939, Stalin desperately tried to unite forces with France and Britain to crush Hitler. But after the Munich Pact and the occupation of Czechia, he understood that it was impossible.After March 1939, unwilling to face a perspective of an Anglo-Franco-Nazi coalition, he started negotiations with Hitler and with Anglo-French at the same time. When it did not work with the Anglo-French, he concluded a pact with Hitler who recognized Eastern Poland, Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Bessarabia as the zone of special Soviet interests. Stalin used the possibility to restore the borders of the Russian Empire, because Bolsheviks hated being named the squanderers of Russia.At first, he was content with Eastern Poland and pro-Soviet regimes in Baltic states, but in June-July 1940, Stalin annexed Baltic countries and Bessarabia. It was an urgent decision, propelled by the fact that France lost the war. Afraid that Hitler would cancel the pact, he decided to take all the lands promised by Hitler as soon as possible. The speed and the harshness (Stalin threatened Romania with war when Nazi forces were fighting in the West) made Hitler nervous. He told his closest advisors that he would attack the USSR as soon as possible.However, in Autumn 1940, Hitler proposed Stalin alliance against Britain, promising him Iran, Afghanistan and North-Western India. Stalin said “yes” but said he also wanted Bulgaria, Finland and a military base on the Bosphorus. It was a Stalin’s big mistake. When offered alliance, he decided that Hitler really needs him and he can win some time. His demands enraged Hitler who did not answer and started preparing the Barbarossa Plan to invade the USSR. In Winter 1940/1941 Stalin contacted Hitler again but there was no answer.In the first months of 1941, Stalin made a series of anti-Nazi moves, protesting against the occupation of Bulgaria and supporting an anti-Nazi coup in Yugoslavia. USSR also started to prepare for a preemptive campaign and secretly deploy armies near the western border. He tried to frighten Hitler into new negotiations but, had these negotiations failed, wanted to get ready for war.However, in May 1941, there was a complete change of plans. In May-June 1941, Stalin did his best not to annoy Hitler and show him his peaceful intentions. All the preparation for war, all the activity near the western border was stopped. Stalin also pronounced his famous ‘secret’ speech to the military school students that there would be a war with Germany but not before 1942.In fact, when Germany attacked, the Soviet army was in complete disorder because Stalin was sure there would not be war in 1941. There was a great quantity of tanks and airplanes, lots of fuel and ammunition but all these were stored separately, and the personnel also was not there. This army could not attack in 1941. It would have taken lots of time to put it in order. Besides, there were orders not to react to German ‘provocations’.Moreover, Nazis never accused Stalin of going to attack them. The official explanation was that USSR had a big army and could attack Germany. It means there were no plans for an immediate attack on Germany, otherwise Nazi propaganda would have used it. (A comment from Alexander Stiefelmann: I watched the Nazi Wochenschau from the week of the attack. The explanation given to the German public was that the Soviet Union led secret negotiations with Great Britain for an anti-German alliance).Why did Stalin change his plans in May 1941? Nemirovsky believes it was because of Hitler’s Balkan campaign. The only possibility to win a war against the USSR was to start in spring and win a decisive battle before the winter. When Hitler got embroiled in conquering Yugoslavia and Greece, Stalin understood he would not attack this year. Hitler stood no chance to win before the winter. And Nazis were not ready for a winter campaign in Russia: there were no warm coats and not enough fuel. That’s why he made his best to look peaceful and not to angry Hitler.Stalin’s problem, according to Nemirovsky, was his rationalism and pragmaticism - and the fact that he believed Hitler to be rational as well. He was wrong. Hitler was a romantic, he loved to overcome the difficulties and he decided to attack the USSR despite all. True, he stood no chance of subduing Russia in 1941. But he nevertheless managed to inflict a crushing defeat on the Red Army - because his moves were miscalculated by Stalin.EDIT: User-9527267420842059368, Peter Zaper and Jeremy Jackson pointed to a number of mistakes or perceived mistakes in the theory. As I already told, the theory is not mine, it was formulated by the Russian historian Nemirovsky. I will try to contact him for discussion. Meanwhile, I invite those who are interested to look up their comments.

Q: How can I as a Pakistani citizen (without a dual citizenship) visit Israel?(Edit: The question details used to state that the OP was visiting Jordan.)Update: But please after reading mine, Please also see a great opposing answer to mine in case mine is wrong: ‎Orem Frien (أوْرِم فْرِيَن ܐܘܪܡ ܦܪܝܢ)‎'s answer to Can a Pakistani citizen visit Israel?A: Being in Jordan does indeed seem helpful for a Pakistani citizen to visit Israel.Apparently Israel will consider allowing Pakistani passport holders to visit but as per Wiki, a Confirmation is required from the Israeli government before such a visitor’s visa is issued. Apparently this has something to do with Pakistan still being officially at war with Israel. ;)Only the Israeli Embassy can tell you for sure (see step three below) but the following is what I have gleaned mainly from the web (and a little from related personal experience):Go to Jordan if you are not there already.Go to the Israeli Embassy.Obtain a (7 day?) visa. This - like all Israeli visas nowadays - should be on a separate piece of paper/card from your passport so that you don’t have any “incriminating” record of your trip to Israel. The Israeli bureaucracy (Dear Lord, the time I’ve wasted with this bureaucracy!) has a reputation for lots of paperwork so be prepared for this and bring any ID and supporting documents you might have and of course leave plenty of time in case an interview is required.Presuming that you have navigated the above hurdles and have been granted your visa, then congratulations - go to the Jordanian border crossing to IsraelAt the border crossing be prepared to have (another?) long chat with a polite but efficient Israeli security official who is inquiring as to your purpose in visiting Israel. This discussion and accompanying wait could be long or not so long depending on how the chat goes. I recommend you answer truthfully and completely. Please note that telling jokes of any kind is not a good idea. At all. (Even really obvious to you jokes such as how you are coming to “Convert the Infidels” in Israel to Islam, or jokes about how your real name is Ossama Jihad Kaboom).If you have contacts or invitations from anyone or any institution in Israel, have a copy of these ready during the above steps.Presuming all the above goes fine, once you are let in, stay away from political activities or proselytizing of any type. Like anyone else if you are ever directed to do something by police or security officials please just do it. You should have a great time doing all the numerous touristy activities that well over three million tourists to Israel per year do. There is a lot to see and experience and you should have a great time.Don’t publish pictures of yourself in Israel having a great time. The idea is to not attract attention from the Pakistani government about your illegal (in the eyes of the Pakistani government) visit to an enemy state. No matter how interesting and fun your trip was.Welcome!P.S. be sure to let us know how it went!