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Does not look like that. Here are various aspects of the whole story.First, there was no “wave” of India Shining, but a high-decibel marketing campaign that was thrust down the throat of India. Read on!The 2004 loss for BJP was a total shocker for everyone, including the winning Congress and UPA. I studied and analysed it very closely.For many months after the results, neither the BJP could digest the results, nor the UPA/Congress! Ha ha. And then there was the high drama of Sonia Gandhi not taking charge as the PM as everyone in Congress wanted. She cleverly foresaw the foreign card being a potent weapon in enemy hands and brought in Dr MMS to blunt all attacks. The Congress was also very swift in crafting a strong “distribution of the spoils of war” to its alliance partners in the form of plum ministries.The key reason for the BJP’s stunning defeat, IMPO, was the “Shining India” campaign being an overkill. India just was not ready for it.Why? Our GDP (nominal / PPP) was too low at that time, our per capita incomes very low, and our rural economy just about beginning to stir. The promises & claims made in the campaign were too stratospheric and aspirational. Remember, our IT sector was yet not the giant it became by 2008–09. The campaign basically served half-cooked food to the nation.As an aside, remember there was no high-speed 24x7 internet then! And definitely no mass mobile internet! And no Facebook or Twitter. Yes, there was a time like that.The campaign iconography - which undid the BJP - was nearly totally focussed on urban India with rural icons few and far between. It completely alienated the rural folk (as was apparent from the results), and also perhaps a lot of urban poor.The Gujarat situation did have an impact, but it was not the major deciding factor in the results as polarisation based victory was not visible, nor did the Congress “clean sweep” the polls.The Hindu vote did not get polarised in BJP’s favour - as entire campaign was focussed on “development talk”. Neither did the Muslim vote get strongly polarised against them.Some always question if the electorate really "punished" the BJP for the "India Shining" campaign. If we go by numbers, maybe this conclusion is indeed supported.Numbers analysis - (1) For BJP : In 1999, the BJP contested from 339 seats, winning 182, with a gross vote tally of 8.656 crores. That makes it 2.55 lac votes per seat. In 2004, the BJP contested from 364 seats (i.e. 25 more), winning only 138, with a gross vote tally of 8.637 crores. That makes it 2.37 lac votes per seat. Overall votes per seat fought drops by around 7%. (2) For Congress : In 1999, it contested from 453 seats, winning only 114, with a gross vote tally of 10.312 crores. That makes it 2.27 lac votes per seat. In 2004, the Congress contested from 417 seats (i.e. 36 less seats), winning only 145, with a gross vote tally of 10.340 crores. That makes it 2.47 lac votes per seat. Overall votes per seat fought grows by around 8.9%.So, statistically, the overall vote swing in Congress's favour (from 1999 to 2004) is 16%. That surely would look like punishment for BJP! [though I must admit that in the “First Past the Post” system India follows, final tallies can be deceptively tricky, given different population sizes of individual constituencies]Another aspect is that the BJP was over-confident (called an early poll), and got many regional/local alliances wrong or simply lost partners. That could also have resulted in strategic defeat at many seats.And I am not bringing in the delimitation angle as it would make things unnecessarily complex for this answer!If one tries to compare that with today and next two years upto 2019, then the reverse effect may happen - even stronger polarisation in BJP’s favour (real bad news for the Opposition).Yogi Adityanath has been elevated to a position of high power. It is quite unlikely that he will mess it up, as he has a solid political experience of more than two decades. A lot of lies are being circulated against him (about being overtly anti-Muslim), and as people discover the truth (like the Muslims in his constituency regularly seeking his help and getting it), the sympathy for him will only grow. The liberal media attacks are fairly vitriolic at this point, and likely to continue, and that will work in his favour.[ the true colours of Yogi - here ]Plus, Mr Modi is a very strong leader driving the entire narrative through personal energy and charisma (despite whatever stories we may be hearing - he has the upper hand). He will not let the story go wrong. A very close coordination (or control?) from the PMO on the CMO at Lucknow is likely to be the case. There really has been no PM as strong as him, in many decades.The whole machinery seems tuned for the 2019 elections. The wave is there, polarisation is there, opposition is in a disarray, no clear single leader is in sight, and the regional political dynamics (strong Pak-China antagonism towards India) present a reason for the electorate to not dislodge Modi anytime soon (especially since no other towering leader is visible on the horizon).And that’s how it seems today, at least! Tomorrow surely is another day. May the Indian democracy flourish.. . . . .May check many useful reading and viewing resources here, here and here.

The Turkish economy is in shambles: inflation and unemployment keep growing rising the dreaded spectre of stagflation. As a reminder, it took the US economy 10 years of misery to pull itself out of the stagflation spiral, notwithstanding the dollar’s firepower. What can be achieved with the battered ₺ is highly questionable.In 2021 interest payments on its debt will amount to 30% of government income while directly or indirectly 30% of said income is directed to defence spending. Meanwhile Turkey has $230 bn Foreign currency debt to refinance in the next 12 months and its net Forex reserves are negative.1,6% US bond yields absorb most available international capital meaning there’s little money available for investment in emerging markets.Brent crude value has increased by 20%, while this is insufficient to restore the treasuries of Russia or Kuwait, trading at $67/barrel is poison for Turkey’s heavily energy dependent and profligate economy.In 2021 GDP is most likely to contract and default becomes probable.And as if these self inflicted predicaments weren’t enough, ultranationalist inspired coercive diplomacy have brought Turkey’s major economic partners the EU and the USA on the verge of imposing painful sanctions, with up-coming Halkbank federal court case in Manhattan likely to throw open the proverbial can of worms.“In the worst-case scenario, say observers, if Halkbank is found guilty it could be facing a fine of up to $20 billion or exclusion from the international banking system SWIFT. That would mean that one of Turkey's largest banks would no longer be able to participate in international financial transactions. And that would likely mean the end of the bank.With the Turkish economy already mired in crisis, Halkbank's bankruptcy would likely be something of a death blow. Hundreds of thousands of investors in Turkey would lose their savings and the lira would plunge even further. Economists warn that the entire Turkish financial industry could collapse, just as it did in 2001, when hundreds of thousands of people were essentially plunged into poverty overnight.The trial also has a geopolitical dimension: The Manhattan federal court may delve into the question as to whether Turkish politicians, all the way up to President Erdoğan himself, were involved in the sanctions violations, as a witness at Mehmet Hakan Atilla’s trial claimed.”"It was my conclusion that the reason that Erdoğan was taking such a persistent interest in this matter was he was worried about what would emerge or be revealed of his own involvement in this as well as in other things," former U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson told the magazine Foreign Policy.Erdoğans Bad Bank on Trial: Shedding Light on an Alleged Plot to Evade Iran SanctionsUS President Joe Biden is likely to impose CAATSA sanctions on Turkey for S-400s and human rights violations.The EU is likely to impose sanctions on human rights violations and Turkey’s actions in Greece’s and Cyprus’ EEZ.Unwilling to call in the IMF, apparently the Turkish government’s last resort is to leverage the threat of a Turkish collapse to save its regime.Obviously this a reminder of the 19th century when the Ottoman Empire’s enemies lent “Europe’s sick man” a helping hand on 2 occasions to prevent its collapse (Russian intervention against Egypt and British intervention against Russia).The caveat is showing willingness to “behave” by entering “friendly” talks with Greece and Israel.But this willingness is contradicted by internal politics and the necessity to placate political allies.So while pretending its willingness to ameliorate relations with Israel, Erdogan’s regime keeps supporting Islamist terror.Ref: German govt: Turkey supports terror groups in Middle EastErdogan nurtures elite mercenary force to rival Russia's Wagner GroupA close confidant of Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Adnan Tanriverdi claims expertise in all the dark arts of warfarehttps://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/12/erdogans-private-islamic-army-turkish-pm-nurtures-elite-mercenary/SADAT: the horsemen of the apocalypse?Erdogan's Al-Aqsa remark has earned Turkey another major enemy— Mossad. And the repercussions will be brutalWhile pretending willingness to discuss maritime boundaries with Greece, Erdogan’s regime sends a survey vessel west of Limnos island, even further west than the -illegal by International Law standards- “mavi vatan” fantasy…This is obviously an attempt to force Athens to withdraw from “negotiations”as it has been the case with “Oruc Reis” Mediterranean cruise.Now talking about harassment…

Honest Review of three years of Modi GovernanceThe Modi government has completed 3.25 of the 5 years of its tenure. There have been few misses and few hits. I evaluate the different policies based on their objectives and most importantly on their implementation. Finally what matter is the overall impact made on the life of individuals and the society as a whole. I present here my honest review of its performance for the three years:I will bring six areas under the following categories to evaluate the performance.Bad or poor areas: Where it didn’t perform well.1. Healthcare sector: The govt didn’t do anything visionary or drastic to restructure the whole sector which is widely neglected and is in terrible mess. Most of the things are mostly on paper or vision statement and nothing much is implemented. The rural and primary healthcare is completely dilapidated. Though it is in concurrent list, the central govt. was expected to do much more.2. Unable to control Hindu Fringe elements: This was perhaps the most vulnerable spot when Modi govt. came to power. When it came to power on the issue of Sabka Saath Sabka Vikaas and development, Modi govt. was expected to curb all Hindu fringe elements and focus solely on development. But unfortunately many in the ruling party have been grabbing attention for their irresponsible remarks and acts. Though Modi has condoned all such acts, more need to be done to control the. The issues of gau rakshak (cow vigilantism), Love-Jihaad, hyper-nationalism were completely unwanted. Perception does matter. The minority communities need to be completely assured of their well being (more so by this govt. due to their not so good track record in this area).3. Poor job creation and falling export: This govt. was expected to provide a big boost for job creation to fulfill the promise. Though many new schemes were started with noble intent (start up India, Skill India, make in India etc) things are mostly on paper. There has not been any visible boost in job creation. The condition of MSMEs (Medium Micro and Small Enterprises) is vulnerable (more so after demonetization). Automation is possessing a threat to software sector. Construction and agricultural sector are lukewarm. The exports are continuously falling (mainly because of global factors). The CAD (Current Account Deficit) is increasing. This sector directly relates to life of everyone and can’t be neglected.4. Poor judicial reforms: The judicial sector today is not in a very healthy state. Backlogs, judicial delay, lack of transparency in judicial appointment, rampant corruption in lower judiciary define today’s judiciary. Though the NJAC couldn’t withstand judicial review, there has not been much effort to clean and reform the whole sector.5. Lack of reform in agriculture sector: This sector is not in a very healthy state. Increasing input cost, poor returns, high risk factor, fluctuating market price and excess monsoon dependency still hinders the growth of the sector. This sector needs long standing reforms to make agriculture lucrative to the farmers. The well-developed schemes like soil health card, PMFBY (Pradahan mantri Fasal Bima Yojna) have not yielded much positive impact. Creating a national market to ensure agricultural goods price stability and mitigate the role of exploitive middlemen shall be the goal. India desperately needs second green revolution.6. Kasmir Issue: Despite sharing power with PDP in J&K (ideologically very different from The ruling party), the GoI (Govt of India) is unable to curb violence in Kashmir valley. Starting with a very peaceful Lok Sabha and assembly election in J&K in 2014 the region is continuously in turmoil. Frequent bandhs, curvew, killing of Burhan Wani, AFSPA etc have crippled the state and tourism is badly hit. Ultra nationalism is not the solution to this sensitive issue.OK OK or moderately Fair: decently good (normal go routine) but things could have been better.1. Swacchh Bharat and sanitation: This is the first govt which has given so much weightage to sanitation and cleanliness. With additional tax and budget this sector has seen major push along with attitudinal change. There are few visible welcome changes. Something more could have been done especially in major sectors like creating sewage treatment plants, proper waste disposal and landfills, effective mechanism for recycling and reduction of waste.2. Education sector: India’s education sector has been a laggard. A majority of children are deprived of good primary education. Barring a very few institute none of the institutes of higher education compete at global level. This sector needed a push to achieve goals of 100% good primary education and improvement in higher education. Though a few scheme (Vidyanjali yojna etc have been launched) something more was needed especially in primary education.3. Banking sector and NPA (Non-Performing Assets) issue: Most of the PSB (Public Sector Banks) are bleeding with abnormally high level of NPA. Though the problem started and culminated in period of 2010-2013 period, it started showing its impact in this govt regime. This is retarding growth in critical sectors of infrastructure, roads, power plant etc. Though most of the defaulters are big industrial groups, the middle class is bearing the pain with slow growth. The steps like BBB (Bank Board Bureau) and IBBI were not enough to solve the mess. Escape of Vijay Mallaya further embarrassed the govt.4. Railways: This sector has not seen any transforming change post- independence, with India still dependent on majority of infrastructure developed by the British. Though there has been a push and visible change in speeding the projects of electrification, double lanes etc more was needed. There is perceptible change in station cleanliness and WiFI at major stations. But train delay, inadequate and crippled infra still rule the sector. Railway is losing its passenger and goods share to other modes.5. Defence: Despite major push on Make in India, domestic procurement, reduce import of defence goods etc, there is no major significant change. DRDO has still not got the edge (unlike ISRO) to develop world class defence equipments in time. Implementing OROP was an achievement. Surgical strike, striking a symbolic chord with jawans and developing road infrastructure in North-East and other terrain hass been a morale booster.6. Environment: With rising global warming and other environmental threats something significant needs to be done for clean environment. The govt push on solar and wind power is praiseworthy but more was expected in sectors of reducing plastic usage, sewage treatment, recycling, afforestation etc. The govt has been softer on some development project which had huge negative environmental impact.Good where this govt has done reasonable well:1. Power Sector: This sector has seen many well-developed schemes and enthusiatic effort to provide long term solutions. Push on RES (Renewable Energy Sector), cleaning the fiscal debt of state DISCOM through UDAY scheme, major push on rural electrification, restructuring of coal allocation to power plant, transparent auctions of coal mines, push on LED bulbs has visible positive impact on many lives.2. Foreign Affairs: This sector has gained a new energy and momentum with active involvement of the concerned ministry and PM himself. Frequent visits for improving bilateral ties, connect with the Indian diaspora, safe and effective evacuation of Indians from war head countries (operation rahat and Sankat Mochan), bilateral and multi-lateral treaties for cooperation in business P2P and geo-strategically ties. India has raised its bar and weight in global media and talks.3. Road infrasturucture: Golden Quadrilateral project was a major achievement of Vajpayee govt. This govt has pushed forward the road and port connection. Significant push and faster execution of rural roads, broadening the national and state highways, bridges, developing new port and improving facilities at existing port to reduce lag time, push on inland waterways, boost to aviation sector under UDAN scheme has boosted the infrastructure with significant positive ripple impact on other sectors.4. Pro-Poor inclusive policy: From suit-boot ki Sarkar, this govt has swiftly changed to development of middle and lower class with good number of universal and inclusive schemes to direct benefit them. The free LPG distribution to 5 crore families under Ujjawala scheme, subsidized LED light under UJALA scheme, covering financial inclusion under jan –Dhan yojna, linking AADHAR with PDS to reduce leakage, LPG Give it up campaign, neem coated urea to prevent leakge, Garib kalyan Yojna, housing for all, easy loans under MUDRA yojna etc have benefitted a good percentage of population.5. War against black money and push for economic restructuring:. The push towards digital payment and formal economy through attack on benami property, voluntary income declaration scheme (Rs 65,000 crore of black money was tracked), Forming SIT on black money have been a boon to clean economy. The implementation of GST after 10 years of limbo (though its real execution is yet to be seen) can have long lasting impact. Demonetization (though didn’t achieve the best result) had given a push towards much needed formalization aof economy and digital payment. The govt has largely abided by the limit of fiscal deficit and inflation is well under control.6. A united and corrupt free govt: There has not been any case as of now of direct involvement of any member of govt in corruption charges. Unlike any govt where factionalism and coalition dharma (placate some coalition partners, the absolute majority and decisive leadership has ensured focus on governance and not on petty issues of overcoming factionalism or persuading disgruntled leaders or coalition partner unlike UPA 2. The significant push on north-eastern states has ensured to reduce their isolation. A decisive leadership, united leaders and enthusiastic cadre has been an achievement.The govt is far away from delivering all the promises it made in 2014 but has done signifantly better than previous govt (UPA 2).20 months is a long time to frame execute good work. I hope it takes more steps to deliver promises and develop the overall state of all Indians.